Scouting director Ray Montgomery has left the Diamondbacks to becomes special assistant to the general manager and vice president in charge of scouting for the Brewers, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes. It’s a significant hire for the Brewers — Piecoro notes that Montgomery is widely considered to be very promising, and that he interviewed for the Padres’ open GM job months ago. Montgomery worked with the Brewers before the Diamondbacks hired him in 2010. Here are more notes from the Central divisions.
- The Indians exercised Mike Aviles’ option in part because they would like top shortstop prospect Francisco Lindor to get more time at Triple-A Columbus, Terry Pluto of the Plain Dealer writes. Lindor earned a promotion to Columbus last season but only collected 180 regular season plate appearances there. With Lindor in the minors, Jose Ramirez will start at shortstop, with Aviles backing up Ramirez and second baseman Jason Kipnis. Pluto feels Aviles would have trade value if Lindor earned a promotion more quickly than the Indians anticipate.
- Tigers ace Max Scherzer could receive a seven-year, $175MM contract to top this offseason’s free agent market, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post, projecting salaries for ten top free agents. Sherman notes that his guess on Scherzer might be low, but that Masahiro Tanaka’s 2014 season with the Yankees demonstrates the kinds of uncertainties that often accompany big-money investments in pitchers.
Interesting to speculate who might be willing to plop $175m plus down on a 30 year old pitcher … If the Cubs grab Lester, they’re probably out. Doubt the Red Sox go that high, although they certainly could. Yanks won’t do that, either will the LA teams now that Haren is back in the fold in Dodger Land. Maybe he goes back to Detroit? Or the Giants?
The Giants aren’t signing him because don’t need a no.1 plus, it’s too big of commitment. The only big money they’ll spend will be to resign Panda. I’d say it’ll come down to a few teams; the Red Sox, Tigers, Angels and, probably a few dark horse teams. The Red Sox need an ace and it appears as though they’re ready to spend big this year so, I’d say it’s the most likely destination IF they don’t get Lester who, like you said, is probably going to the Cubs. Also, Scherzer has shown the ability to perform under pressure and with a somewhat large market team so, he will appeal to the Red Sox (this is another reason I don’t want them to sign Shields!). The Tigers, while unlikely, have shown the ability to give big contracts to players even when you don’t expect it to be possible/likely so, I wouldn’t mark them off yet. And the Angels are said to be looking for pitching help so, if they trade Kendrick or Freese, you never know, they might be willing to give a big contract, though rather unlikely (they always seem to surprise though!). It’ll certainly be an interesting off-season for Scherzer but, I’m sure one team’ll cough up the money and give it to him.
I think the Angels will make a run at him. Have doubts about 7 years though.
Hope whoever signs Scherzer can score 5 plus runs when he pitches.And have a great bullpen to come in after 6 innings.Id never give a guy who cant complete a game that kind of money.He is a good pitcher but he also was the product of a lot of run support.
Scherzer’s innings per start in his career:
2014: 6 2/3
2013: 6 2/3
2012: 5 2/3+
2011: 6-
2010: 6 1/3
2009: 5 2/3
Don’t let his lack of complete games fool you. He pitches deep into games.
This sounds like the grapes beginning to sour. Scherzer was 8th in IP in all of baseball.
i’m not saying scherzer isn’t a good pitcher, but he *has* been the beneficiary of outstanding run support. for his career 3+ runs about 75% of the time and 6+ about 36% run (for comparison’s sake, masterson 63% and 6+ run support only 28%)
the point is that it’s a lot easier to concede a run a run or two when you’re up 4 runs than to have to make a good pitch when the game is tied or if you’re behind. scherzer’s ERA was 4.25 when he had 6+ run support and is only 4-30 in the 49 starts where he got 0-2 run support. masterson OTOH, is 10-44 in his 64 starts with 0-2 run support. in other words, for their careers, masterson has been more likely to win a game when his team doesn’t score at least 3 runs than scherzer.
I am from New England and I am upset with the Red Sox for not re-signing Lester and the possibility of not signing him this offseason. However, I think they are onto something because look at how many big-contracted pitchers tank after signing onto such a deal: Zito, Verlander, Tanaka, Santana, Sabathia… the list goes on and on.
I am a fan of both Scherzer and Lester, but I think their former teams are right in wanting to sign them on the team’s terms, not the player’s terms.
I don’t doubt that most of the players Sherman mentions in his NY Post column will get the contract numbers he’s mentioning, but it seems as though most are very risky. Will anyone really give Shields 5 years at $20 million per year? Geez, he’ll be 33 when the season starts, his numbers are trending down the past three seasons and he’s coming off of a lousy postseason.
I would echo Bill Couch’s concerns about Scherzer, who has pitched one more complete game in the big leagues than I have.
It will also be interesting to see what becomes of Hanley Ramirez and if anyone really thinks he can still play shortstop.
Also looking at Sherman’s post, I think A LOT of his predictions are way off, Scherzer’s, Lester’s, and Shield’s AAV seems somewhat high (especially for Shields, whom I don’t think’ll get an AAV of 20 million for 5 years, I think it’s certainly possible for four, however). Also, I think the contract lengths are somewhat wrong for numerous players resulting in AAV that are too low at each given contract’s length. For example, I think Cabrera and Martin will get a higher AAV for 4 years than 13 million. For 5 years, yes, I could see it but for 4, I predict an AAV around 15 million. And finally, the comparative contracts for Hanley and Panda are most definitely wrong IMO; I think Hanley ends up with a bigger contract than Panda despite the slight age difference. I think Hanley will get no less than 20 million AAV on a 5 year deal while Panda’s propose AAV seems right, just on a longer deal IMO. Heck, I’d probably sign Hanley on Sherman’s proposed deal if I were the Red Sox, given his acceptance to play 3rd base (he might do it, he’s great friends with Papi).
If Chase Headley ends up getting between $13 to $15 Million per year then Hanley Ramirez looks like a bargain for $16 Million at 3B. He is not the defender Headley but he is a middle of the order bat.
Exactly, that’s why I think he’s gonna get an AAV of 20 million for 5 years (less for a longer contract).
Headley is a better all around player (in the regular season) than either Hanley or Panda right now, when you factor in defense and health.
Sherman seems a little high on the Scherzer estimate. Cubs will likely go hard for Lester and Boston has indicated they’d rather not go longer than 4 years for a FA pitcher. The Yankees are the logical landing spot, but with those 2 big spenders not going hog wild, the competition may not be as fierce as Sherman supposes. Isuppose the Dodgers could be involved, but is Friedman motivated enough to push bidding into Sherman’s territory?
I’d look for the Sox to pursue Hamels in a trade to get what they need and live within their self-imposed limits. Then sign or trade for mid rotation depth.
Boston and Chicago: Would prefer Lester over Scherzer, because of their ties with him.
Tigers: Have to worry about VMART and cannot really afford Scherzer. Even if they could, I think Price is a better choice because he a lefty, younger and still one year away from FA (may be willing to agree to a lower contract amount than Scherzer).
Yankees and Dodgers: Seem to have become more fiscally responsible.
I think Lester gets the contract he is looking for (which is likely less than what Scherzer is looking for). Scherzer does NOT. Scherzer may even slip behind Lester to a lower contract value.
I do think there is a limit to how high Boston will go. They hate “dollars after age 30” in contracts, particularly for pitchers.
I really doubt $175MM. I know Scherzer is good, but does anyone actually put him in the top 10 pitchers in baseball?