APRIL 29: The Reds have moved Bailey to the 60-day DL, per a club announcement.
APRIL 28: One alternative to surgery for Bailey is a platelet-rich plasma injection, writes Fay. Price mentioned the possibility when discussing Bailey’s status with reporters today. As Fay notes, right-hander Carlos Contreras, who was called up to the Majors to replace Bailey, avoided Tommy John surgery in 2010 by undergoing a PRP.
APRIL 27: Reds starter Homer Bailey was placed on the DL today with what the club is calling a right elbow ligament sprain. Manager Bryan Price indicated that the injury could be serious, as John Fay and C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer were among those to report (Twitter links).
Price did not offer a precise diagnosis or timetable, but did not express much optimism. “He certainly won’t be pitching here in the near future,” said Price. He added: “It’s messy and unbelievably unfortunate both for him as an individual and for our ball club.”
Bailey suffered a torn flexor mass tendon late last year, undergoing surgery in early September. The right-hander rehabbed and returned after missing just a few starts to open 2015, but it now seems that return may be short-lived.
In his two outings this year, Bailey lasted 11 1/3 innings but compiled just three strikeouts against four walks while permitting seven earned runs to cross the plate. An even more troubling trend from the early going is a marked velocity decline. Bailey had thrown his fastball at an average rate of just over 94 mph over each of the last two seasons, but was clocking a mean offering of just 91 mph in 2015.
The news is deeply concerning for a Cincinnati club that already has its share of short-term and long-term issues. Bailey was one of several pitchers nearing free agency when the team locked him up to a six-year, $105MM deal before last season.
Bailey earned that payday with two straight 200+ inning seasons, including a strong 2013 performance. He threw well enough last year, even if he did not continue to progress, before going down to injury.
All involved certainly hoped for a quick return to form this season, but that seems increasingly out of reach. Beyond the present season, the Reds are obligated to pay Bailey $86MM from 2016-19 (including the buyout on a 2020 mutual option) under the backloaded deal structure that was agreed to.
Man what a bust of a contact this one is turned into, and for an organization that can’t afford it.
The Reds had a 50-50 shot when they signed Bailey. It was either sign him or Cueto. Obviously it looks like they made a mistake, but two years ago when Cueto was injured and Bailey was throwing no hitters right and left, it looked like a pretty good idea.
I didn’t realize he was getting paid that much!!!
iglas or cingrani to replace???
Probably not Cingrani. They seem like they really want him to be an 8th inning guy that eventually takes over for Chapman as closer. I’d say it will be Iglesias, although Michael Lorenzen could get a look as well.
ya its so stupid to give up cingrani the stuffs there he was solid two years ago
Cingrani has one pitch.
Yeah but he blew last year.
More like the long man. Price just refuses to use him.
It’s a shame that we are going to lose Cueto and Leake and likely Chapman not too long after. This is going to be a very long and nasty rebuilding process.
Look at the bright side, you still have the Brewers, Rockies, Phillies, Braves, Dbacks, Marlins, and perhaps the Giants to play.
Well, it mightn’t be too nasty if they trade those guys at the deadline. Otherwise, it could be a much longer process.
They could probably blow it up and be ready to contend again by 2018.
Trade Cueto, Leake, Bruce, Chapman, Byrd, and even Frazier for the best offer you can this summer.
Focus should be on accquring high upside hitters and safer proven pitchers that can be the core of the next contending Reds team.
I think if they play their cards right by the deadline, they could be ready to contend again next season.
I don’t see it…. Where are they going to get their pitching?
If they rebuild at the deadline, they’ll get it in return for Cueto, and possibly Leake. Not to mention Lorenzen, Iglesias, Robert Stephenson, etc. They could easily get two top-tier pitching prospects for Cueto, assuming they aren’t contending at the deadline. So let’s say that Bailey comes back to full strength. The new rotation could be Bailey, Lorenzen, Iglesias, DeSclafani and someone they’ve gotten for Cueto. If not Bailey, perhaps Stephenson or Axelrod could pick up the mantle. Don’t think bringing Leake back is out of the question, either.
Wonder what kind of deal he would of gotten on the open market this past winter. I could of seen a team still signing him for a 5/90 deal after his 2014.
I don’t think he’d get a 5/90 deal. Career 4.19 ERA, gives up a fair share of homers, and has only pitched more than 200 innings twice.
See Rick Porcello. Homer Bailey has the youth factor as well.
Rick Porcello was an overpay by the Red Sox. For what they gave him, they either should’ve added an extra year to the contract or lessened the amount of money he would make. Bailey if he hit free agency would’ve been paid roughly like what Porcello really should’ve been paid.
An overpay for a near 6ERA this season, yikes.
Two whole starts…. You can complain about the length and dollars but you can’t base anything on two starts.
His 5th start showed the potential, but I’m not sure if the consistency will be there. It’ll be interested to see where he lands stats-wise going into the summer.
Both Rick Porcello and Bailey were extensions, not open market deals. Bailey also had a better 2013 than 2014 and got his current 6/105 prior to start of 2014.
Yes… I was just commenting that anyone could of made that deal with Bailey had he reached FA after 2014 even with the poorer numbers, just the other perspective than the Reds handed out a poor deal and got burned.
Hopefully the Reds have learned their lesson and have a solid insurance clause on this guy. Tommy John in the very near future. Hopefully they do not drag out the decision and cause this guy to miss all of 2016 as well. Then again… If he misses all of 2016 it is almost certain that insurance will cover the finance of his contract.
Unfortunate for Bailey. This is yet another reminder about the value in stockpiling cheap controllable arms.
Sooner or later this is going to be reflected in the contracts for high end pitching. Either they are going to be shorter, or have a “Lackey clause” or for less total money, but the season-ending and more injuries are very economically impactful. And, sooner or later, MLB and MLBPA might take a much closer look at why this appears to be happening so much more frequently. Is it overuse, is it the emphasis on hard-throwing, is it damage first caused at the amateur level? Is it possible that the older generation of pitchers, in four man rotations, and going deeper into games, just paced themselves differently?
I’ll loosely quote Dr. Jobe as to the cause. “Throwing is good… Throwing very hard all the time is bad”……” youngsters throwing a curveball is not bad. It is bad when they are not taught how to throw it properly”. Both of those loose quotes were from an interview with him several years ago when he was asked why there were so many cases of torn UCL’s.
My own personal opinion, especially regarding the older generation of pitchers. Many of them did throw hard , but there was not so much emphasis on power pitchers. Guys like Gibson and Carlton knew how to pitch… Not just throw as hard as they could. Today there is so much emphasis on power, not only from the pitcher’s mound, but also at the plate, that the game has changed completely. The emphasis on power at the plate, always swinging for the fences instead of swinging to make contact is the reason adding averages declined.
I’m not certain this is true as I am no expert, but I’ve read little league coaches have tried to teach the pitchers to throw curves, and since the arm was never meant to move the way it moves when a curve is thrown, it is happening a lot more to younger pitchers from throwing it since being a kid
I’m not sure if that is true, but it makes sense.
According to the good, and sadly departed Dr., the “strain” from throwing a breaking pitch correctly is no different than throwing the most “natural” way….sidearm.
One of the problems is that little league coaches rarely know how to throw a curve the right way, they are mainly just Dad’s with the time to help out.
reds starting pitching is a disaster behind Cueto
If a 1.04 ERA is a disaster, I wish the Reds had more disasters.
Leake is far from a disaster.
Yes, him and Cueto will have to work pretty hard to keep the reds in contention
Yes they will. Hopefully DeSclafani can continue to be solid as well. He certainly looks promising.
D’oh! I tend to spout a lot of Homer Simpson quotes during Brewers-Reds games with Homer Bailey pitching. Guess I won’t be doing that any time soon.
Every time hear of this therapy, remember Takashi Saito and his miracle recovery back in ’08 from a near full tear on his throwing elbow after the injection.
Saito never did have to have TJ afterwards and was just as good that 2008 season and beyond. No real loss of velocity in ’08, tho he was nearing 40 and did decline a bit as he climbed over that mark later on.
They better trade Cueto quick before something happens to him. Pitchers are dropping and dropping frequently.
OK, so how does us knowing this help the Reds?
I can’t think of a single reported instance of a PRP working and allowing the player to avoid major surgery.
You mean except for the example in the article?
I’m pretty sure the rise in pitchers blowing out their arms has a strong correlation to the decline in ped use over the last 7-8 years