Dillon Gee and Jon Niese have long seen their names floated in trade rumors, but that trend could increase in the weeks to come, as ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin hears from a team source that the Mets may promote left-hander Steven Matz before month’s end. (Over the weekend, Mike Puma of the New York Post wrote that Matz could be up prior to the All-Star break, adding that GM Sandy Alderson said the lefty had little else to prove to the team in the minors.) Trade efforts surrounding Gee and Niese have taken a back seat to the draft at the moment, Rubin writes, but talks will again pick up once the draft is complete.
The Mets would like to add a bat to help the big league roster in any trade, writes Rubin, but they’d prefer to add someone versatile as opposed to a strict third baseman, because the team still believes that David Wright will return this season. The team is, however, interested in someone who can play third in addition to several other positions. Rubin notes that a versatile piece such as Ben Zobrist or Martin Prado would be ideal, though it’d almost certainly take more than Niese or Gee to acquire either of those pieces.
The team could improve its chances of landing an MLB-ready bat by packaging Niese or Gee with a younger piece with some additional team control. Yesterday, Puma reported that Rafael Montero could be considered a trade chip when he’s healthy, but the team has no intention of trading catcher Kevin Plawecki, even once Travis d’Arnaud is activated from the disabled list. A healthy Montero would appeal to a number of clubs, though as Puma noted, his injury troubles have lowered his trade value.
Neither Gee nor Niese would completely turn the tide for a struggling rotation, but either could provide some stability toward the back end of a currently top-heavy group of starters. Gee, who is earning $5.3MM this season, can be controlled through 2016 via arbitration. In 674 career innings, Gee has a 3.94 ERA with 6.5 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and a 46.2 percent ground-ball rate.
Niese is more expensive but also has a better track record. The 28-year-old lefty is earning $7MM this season and is guaranteed $9MM in 2016, and his deal contains 2017 and 2018 club options valued at $10MM and $10.5MM, respectively. Each option has a $500K buyout. Niese has battled shoulder problems in his career, but he has a 3.90 ERA in 954 2/3 big league innings. Niese has averaged 7.2 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 with a 49.4 percent ground-ball rate in his career, and he’s outperformed his ERA in the eyes of metrics such as FIP and xFIP.
By making a trade with Gee or Niese (along with other young pitchers or prospects) for a starting player it can do way more than one would think for the Mets. It would 1) upgrade the offense 2) upgrade the defense by putting one or more players in more comfortable positions. 3) upgrade the bench 4) Upgrade the rotation by bringing up Matz
Some of this pitching just has to get exchanged for bats. They’re currently getting no-hit after 7 innings by Chris Heston..
Make that completely no-hit…
yep. I’m happy that happened maybe it’ll wake up Sandy and co. to do something.
They will do something — they will activate T D’A. Hey, it didn’t cost them anything!
….and still tied for first place.
Gomez and Aramis Ramirez and even add Segura in the equation (who cares if Wright will be back, if you get to a world series which is the goal, you’ll need a DH anyways) for Syndergaard or DeGrom or Matz and more… Move Lagares to left or right and platoon Cuddyer/Granderson.
The Mets just got no-hit by Chris Heston……CHRIS HESTON! They better make some moves after this this.
To be fair though, Heston has been pretty good this year. He either gives up 5+runs or pitches really well. This night he pitched really well.
They’re going to get something at the dollar store. Honestly, I can’t say that I would do it any differently, but it has a lot of risk.
Two already. TdA and Dilson are back up.
Callaspo for either of those guys once Olivera gets to the big league club.
I can’t see the Marlins trading Prado to the Mets.
But I can see the Rockies Trading Tulo and Cargo for One Really Good Pitcher and Two or Three good projects that they have , the division is their for the taking make a move NOW !
The Rockies would want Sndergaard and Matz, plus Pawecki, Nimmo, and Conforto
There is no way they’d expect that much for Tulo, performing as he is, and with his injury track record– 5 top 100 prospects (as ranked earlier in the year)? I can’t think of any similar trades in recent memory.
lolz…Syn + Matz…for an often injured guy on the wrong side of 30 who is owned ~$100m. Uh huh.
I don’t see either team doing that. And that’s even before the Rockies are edging back into the race.
Why does no team want Gee or Niese their both Good number four and five starters !
It’s not that teams don’t want them they are just not willing to give the Mets a good hitter for them. They all know the Mets need to trade them, so they are low balling them right now.
No its that teams dont really want them. 5th starter types just dont have much value. Maybe if they had better stuff and just havent had the results but those guys have showed their peaks
I’d guess its Alderson high balling them.
That’s just it. #4s/#5s don’t pitch in the Playoffs. Literally no team would have a use for them except for maybe the innings/consistency through the season. But they have 0 PostSeason value to anyone.
Niese’s contract isn’t helping his cause either for a #4. Gee’s either as he’ll likely push for 8mil next season in arb if he finds a rotation to pitch for the rest of the season
A team can play in the playoffs if their #4 and #5 pitchers are consistently losing them games. You acquire a guy like Gee/Niese to GET to the playoffs, not to win you a playoff game. You need guys who can steal wins…a game or two over .500 from a #4 or #5 is huge.
you rent those guys. not commit 2-3years in salary to them.
Ideally, yes. I believe Niese has one more year (and then can be bought out). Trading a rental #3 or #4 would be great, but half a dozen teams would want in on him. Niese and Gee are more of a #4 / #5…but much less expensive in regard to talent going back to the Mets.
The Mets just got no-hit tonight. One big bat isn’t going help them. They should not give up vital pieces from their farm for a bat that will be a FA soon.
Too bad the Phillies and Mets are division rivals. Gee or Niese for Cody Asche might work for both sides.
Division rival trades can still happen.
I’m not sure why the Phillies would want those guys though
Have you seen the Phillies rotation lately? And what is it going to be if they trade Hamels and Harang? At least those guys could get them through 2015 and 2016. And RAJ could ask for a prospect or 2 thrown in to even things out if necessary.
Why would the Phillies be buying? They could plug up those holes in the rotation with AAA fodder.
The Phillies need to make moves to try and be competitive in 2017. Those pitchers are still young and can serve a useful gap in the next 1-4 years, or even mature into steady MOR SP.
If you keep filling holes with “AAA fodder” or waiver wire castoffs, how exactly do you break out of that cycle?
You have to keep incrementally upgrading.
I completely disagree. They just started rebuilding, and they still have Howard, Utley and Hamels on their roster. Plus they still have no idea what will happen to Lee. There is NO way they are taking on additional salary until those players are moved.
And I completely disagree with you. While there is still money on the books for 2015 and 2016, the Phillies have one of the LOWEST dollar amounts in forward commitments in all of baseball. And if they trade Cole Hamels, they will have nearly zero in 2017. Look it up if you don’t believe me.
They CAN and SHOULD start planning to move forward NOW.
If they move forward, it won’t be through Gee or Niese. They would want young cost controlled assets, not players who are arb eligible and set up to make substantial raises in the next couple of years. Not to mention getting a player who has shoulder issues.
Asche is not likely to be in their plans going forward. They need pitchers.
That’s exactly my point though. They don’t need pitchers! All they need to do is sell. Asche, if nothing else, is more of a stopgap than Niese or Gee would ever be.
They don’t need pitchers, they just need to sell, huh? Somehow, a major league caliber pitching rotation will just materialize out of nothing once the last big contract is moved or played out, I guess.
You are WAY, WAY overstating your point. The Phillies do not need big free agent LT contracts right now, I’d agree with that much. But any decent ML player they can get, especially 20-something pitchers with reasonable stats, they can pay $5M/year for another 1.5 years AT LEAST is something that could work out for them, in trade for a player that seems expendable.
If the Phillies could pay Kyle Kendrick $7.7M for his work in 2014, they can surely afford $5M for either of those players.
Harang is about to get dealt. Kendrick may be the next one gone. Gee or Niese has no place on a rebuilding team, unless the Mets eat their salaries which won’t happen.
Kendrick plays for the Rockies.
They have the same problem the Mets have, nobody wants to give them enough for their players. All the other teams are sitting back waiting to buy low.
The difference is the Mets are more okay w. NOT making a major move (e.g. Tulo) and trying to flip back-end rotation guys for a bench player/BP arm. I consider Matz untouchable because the Mets are cheap and he is the 2nd best lefty prospect behind Urias (?) out in LAD.
They should strongly consider moving Montero if he can show he is healthy bc he is a #4 and future #3. Plaw needs to be held onto for now, though maybe in the off season if he can build up his value more. Herrara garnered some interest, but he is gimped up and frankly still young. He has show flashes of avg to above average ability.
Muno and Cechilli (sp?) have killed any possible value. Reynolds..meh this season, don’t trade low. Rosario should be off limits for now, as he is still a toolshed of potential. Their low A and AA guys are too raw (IMHO)….minus Conforto and Nimmo, who look good. Freaking Cuddyer is blocking Conforto getting a legit shot, but hopefully Cuddyer gets platooned soon.
The Phillies are trying to rebuild this year, they don’t want Gee or Niece.
It’s a shame we’re not a true NY team with resources and a TV station. How about this scenario: A low level prospect to Colorado and eat Tulo’s entire contract. Then send Montero and a low level prospect to the Brewers and eat Braun’s entire contract. Nom nom nom. Then put Tweedledum and Tweedledee in the pen as a situational lefty/ long-man and tell them to either learn to throw 98 or stop wining like little girls that they’re not starting. You’re all set. Your payroll is $140 million and we have an offense.
In the offseason, you let Murphy walk, you let Colon walk, trade Niese and Gee to anyone willing to take the deal and you just took the payroll down to 115 million.
mets owners are broke. they couldn’t eat tulo’s contract in a million years.
Obviously, I was just pointing out what a normal team would do in this case.
The Mets would be bidding against other teams too; the Brewers and Rockies are not just going to give those players away. They would rather keep them in that case.
Keep them, braun’s extension doesn’t even kick in until next year and believe it or not an overpriced salary is a big negative.
You think they should give away Braun as a salary dump?
I think, if they want trade all of his money due, then he is worth nothing. He is owed 100 mil starting next year and he has one ugly suspension on his record.
5 years 105 million, so he would have to get around 2.5 WAR per year to get your money’s worth. The PED suspension doesn’t necessarily impede anything in the face of front offices since players like Colon, Byrd and Cabrera were coveted although I agree that a lot of fans would take issue with it. Still 2.5 WAR per season is a reasonable expectation and he could attain that.
Those three guys didn’t get 20 million a year though.
No, but they didn’t get chump change either. There is almost always a team that over pays for offense.
If it’s full relief, the Brewers might consider it. They can spend that on multiple players in the off-season.
Than get full financial relief? At the very least, that would get the Brewers/ Rockies off your top end prospects. if you’re a NY team with a once-in-a-generation chance to have a five ace rotation, how do you allow that to go unsupported? It’s a crime against the spot.
There are other teams you would be bidding against. There is always a team that over pays for offense. The Brewers are not going to dump him unless they can’t get a better deal from anywhere else, and in that case they could decide to build around him. In any case, it would not happen because the Mets won’t eat their contracts.
Nah, you get what you want. Mets keep every valuable prospect. Next season they might try and compete or maybe that’s the year to break in the young guys and they target the next season.
They shouldn’t need to keep every one, but to be dominant, you need at least one area where you blow everyone else away. If you can somehow get five ace(ish) level starters all making pre-arbitration money in your rotation at once, you need to allow that to materialize.
They above plan would absolutely work, but it would never happen because the owners won’t spend that money. The perfect plan is to develop a young cheap core and then go buy whatever else you need when they’re ready.
You don’t need to sell the farm for an all-star team, just get enough bats to score league average.
My inclination is to do keep the young players like you say. Maybe i’m wrong but I get the impression that Alderson wants to keep every prospect that he thinks will be part of the team and to win trades by a large margin.
Maybe they don’t need any FAs. But if they need a bat or two, it might be worth it to try and make even trades with surplus especially at lower levels. My sense and I could be completely wrong is that Alderson can’t or won’t.
I get the sense he won’t too, but I’m not sold that it’s all as it seems. I wonder if he’s trying to force ownership to expand the budget by letting the team suffocate.
Pitching is outlier, you try and win when you can!
Niese, a middle reliever and a low prospect for pillar and navarro
I like Pillar a lot. I wonder if the Jays would do something like this.
I like Pillar to it’s just they have clear needs. If they get one of Niese/Gee, they could move Estrada back to the pen where he has been more effective the last couple years (Although like the rest of the rotation, has been very good his last 2 starts)
Rubin notes that a versatile piece such as Ben Zobrist or Martin Prado would be ideal, though it’d almost certainly take more than Niese or Gee to acquire either of those pieces.
Well, then do it! They need to if they want to even think about the post season this year. Give the fans what they want!
We can still think about the post season without trading away the future.
I can’t see the Marlins trading Prado to the Mets, while Beane will want Matz for Zobrist.
I’m not saying that it’s an unfair deal, just that it’s not an underpay. First, though, Gomez is not a ‘perennial MVP candidate’. He’s been in the league for 9 seasons and has only one MVP-level season. He’s great, yes, but 4-5 WAR is not MVP-level. Also, you’re only getting him for one and a half seasons. ‘Perennial’ doesn’t mean anything with a data set of 1.5.
Second, I don’t know how on earth you call Segura ‘consistent’. He has two full seasons under his belt: one at 3.5-4 WAR, one at 0 WAR. I know there are extenuating circumstances, but you can’t call that ‘consistent’ statistically.
But again, not saying the deal is unfair. 5 total prospects (one excellent, three very good, and one true question mark with potential) for one and a half seasons of Gomez, several of Segura, and half a season of a nearly retired, poorly producing player is not an underpay.
I wonder if the Red Sox would swap Masterson and Holt for Niese, Eric Campbell and a non top prospect. They replace their worst starter with a mid rotation pitcher in exchange for downgrading from Holt to Campbell at the utility spot.
and i can show random guys who throw high 80’s that dominate the pcl. and a number 3 performs well, just not an ace…
The guy hit 99 this year. Why do you keep claiming he throws high 80s? His changeup is in the 80s but his fastball sits close to 94-95.
I never once said he throws slow. He sits 92-96. I said people who throw slow can dominate triple a. Doesnt mean they are future aces.
Why would you compare Matz to guys throwing that slow, though?
How are soft tossing lefties relevant to a guy sitting mid-90s, then?
Your exact statement was “He doesnt have dominanr secondaries nor control of them. Guys who top out at 90 can dominate the minors. The margin of error is smaller in the bigs. But no scouting reports give him this ace potential you are talking about.”
It’s pretty clear you had no clue he throws gas and are now backpedalling because of the ridiculous assertion that Matz would have a small margin of error in the bigs because he tops out at 90.
Or i said he doesnf have strong secondaries. I.e no strikeout pitch. And that doft tossers with control can put up dominant numbers at triple a like his numbers. If fastball velo was the only thing that mattered joe kelly and eovaldi would dominate
Right, and he has strong secondaries and strong fastball velocity. You’re embarrassing yourself.
Any team in the wild card hunt can look to buy. The main thing is doing so without sacrificing the future.