Phillies lefty Cole Hamels had a rough outing on Sunday but he insists that he’s healthy, as Todd Zolecki of MLB.com writes. He also says he’s not worried about how his recent outings may impact his value. “I think my track record speaks for itself,” the Phillies ace said. “But sometimes you can get yourself in a rut and you’ve got to get yourself out, and sometimes you get on a hot streak and you can go for months, so it’s just being able to start back over and see what I can do from the first pitch.”
Here’s more related to Hamels and the Phillies:
- People around baseball are wondering if there’s something wrong with Hamels, Buster Olney of ESPN.com tweets. In his last two outings, Hamels has thrown a combined 6.1 innings while allowing 14 runs, 20 hits, and two walks. Hamels has a history of minor elbow and shoulder injuries. He missed a few starts earlier this season with a hamstring strain. For what it’s worth, his velocity has remained consistent through his recent plunge. A decline in velocity is often a leading indicator of injury.
- The Red Sox sent VP Allard Baird to scout Hamels today, reports Gordon Edes of ESPN. Unfortunately, today’s outing probably didn’t provide much useful information for potential suitors. In my opinion, the Red Sox may not be the best positioned to acquire Hamels. On the fringe of the AL East pennant race, Boston is on Hamels’ limited no-trade list. It’s unclear if he would waive his no-trade protection to join the Sox if they fall farther out of the race.
- In addition to the Red Sox, the Dodgers, Orioles, Rangers, and Cubs had scouts in attendance for Hamels’ start, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. The Angels were also present, but they were said to be scouting hitters.
- Outfielder Ben Revere understands he could be traded in the next few days, writes Marc Narducci of the Philadelphia Inquirer. He admits that anxiety increases as the trade deadline approaches. Revere, 27, is hitting .297/.336/.377 with a career high .080 ISO. It wouldn’t shock me if the Phillies kept Revere. None of the current contenders are said to be looking for a speedy outfielder, so most teams probably view him as a tertiary target. I could see him filling a role similar to that of Royals outfielder Jarrod Dyson. However, with his huge range in the outfield and reliable offensive production, he can be of some benefit to the Phillies as they break in a new generation of pitchers.
- Ken Giles is prepared to step in as closer, writes Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer. The Phillies are widely expected to trade All-Star closer Jonathan Papelbon in the next couple weeks. Giles ticks all the prerequisites of the modern closer. His fastball touches 100 mph, and he also features a wipeout slider. In his brief major league career, he has a 1.46 ERA, 11.99 K/9, and 2.92 BB/9 in 86 innings. For those looking to keep up to date on all closer news, check out @CloserNews on Twitter.
“He missed a few starts earlier this season with a hamstring strain”
He skipped one total start…..
Good too see how the Phillies blew Hamels trade value LoL………….thats what they get for thinking that team could win this season……….
How has Hamels blown his trade value because of 2 bad trades?
No one ever thought this Phillies team was going to win, they said its a rebuilding year before they even reported to ST.
He’s not as valuable as he was 12 months ago…..or even 8 months ago…….now as the deadline nears…..he was suppose to be the top arm on the market……..no now that’s Cueto…….I think scouts may see a lot of Verlander in Hamels future………
Based off what? You make these crazy assumptions but all you’re going off of is a span of 2 weeks to assume Cole Hamels is a complete bust.
Cueto is the top arm on the market because hes a cheap rental who’ll cost less to acquire.
You’re basing your assumptions on Hamels off 2 bad starts, so why not look at Cueto? He only lasted 4 innings today and walked 6.
In no way are Verlander and Hamels comparable pitchers. Two completely different repotiors and left handers age better than right handers typically.
Besides 2 starts does nothing to diminish his trade value. Before the Giants start he had a 3.02 ERA and his FIP actually went down after his performance today. He’s had 11 starts where he’s gone 7ip and given up 2 or less earned runs.
Bingo!
While I agree that the years and dollar amount of Hamels’ contract might be enticing, you also have to say that the receiving team likely wouldn’t get the best years of Hamels out of that deal.
It remains a question of what you have to surrender in order to get him and his contract. If his AAV wasn’t 6-7m lower and 2 years shorter than what other top FA pitchers will receive on the open market, he wouldn’t have any trade value at all…because you can get those guys basically for free (some even without forfeiting a draft pick due to no QO eligibility).
So how valuable are those 6-8m per year and 2-3 less years (at an older age)? I don’t know, but certainly not in the ballpark RAJ is dreaming of.
Let’s leave names out of this…just guessing value: 1 top 50 prospect (in the 25-30 range), another top 100 prospect (51-100) and either a lotto player (very young) or a very advanced prospect with a decent floor but no high ceiling.
Again, I know that Phillies fans are regarding Hamels highly and rightfully so, but they wouldn’t just get prospects but also the freedom to go out on the market and spent the 21m AAV they would save by trading him.
The whole situation is overblown by now. Hamels should have been traded like months ago…but the same counts for Papelbon and company. The Phillies keep on missing the perfect window (best example: Lee 2 years ago) and it costs them. I will be pleasantly surprised if they receive (much) more than what I calculated a few lines above.
I think most Phillies phans would be happy with what you suggested.
I think your proposal is better based in reality Alz, but I think a top 50 prospect without money going the receiving team’s way would preclude that.
I /was/ going to reply to this since it appears half of my MLBTR posts are pointing out how idiotic this “scann-dotsmcgee” is but yeah, Matt did it fair enough. While I don’t and never have seen Hamels as a huge bargain and or great pitcher with his decline slowly coming, but there’s no way two starts ruins any value. And your statement of thinking the phillies could win, even Amaro isn’t that blatantly stupid, that right there says either TROLL, or just plain uneducated.
Two bad starts in April for 9 earned runs, One in May for 6 more, two in June for 10 more earned runs and now two more starts in half a month of July with 14 more earned runs might be a reason to be cautious on him and question the decision on not trading him this spring when his value was higher.
They didn’t blow anything he’s had two bad starts. Felix gave up 8 Earned Runs in 0.1 ip and then gave up 7 in 4.2 against the Yankees two starts later… was there something wrong with him? Every pitcher goes into a funk just like every hitter goes into one. Hamels didn’t go from Ace to #5 starter over night.
How Many Star Pitchers have had Two bad Starts in there Career , Need to take the hold Body of work, for his Value !
Okay, lets just look at the last 7 starts: 4 of them have at least FIVE earned runs.
Um, star pitchers do not give up FIVE earned runs very often and certainly not 4 times in 7 starts unless something is going on. Sorry phillie fans, but with the starting pitching market growing and the ridiculous demands, you are NEVER getting anything close to what you could have got even just 2 months ago.
Revere or Howard to,Angels.
Howard…NO….Revere….depends on the price.
A couple of points:
1. Hamels missed 1 start earlier this season with a hamstring issue that turned into nothing, not ‘a few.’
2. What could the Orioles offer to Philadelphia for Hamels? I can’t imagine the Orioles wanting to part with Gausman, I don’t think Bundy would be that appealing considering hes only thrown 63 IP in the last 3 years.
3. Am I the only one who thinks they are crazy not to be shopping Ken Giles too? The kid could bring back a haul similar to Kimbrel.
4. How do the Red Sox not know everything they need to know about Hamels already? I get you send scouts to see if anything has changed, but sending your VP to see someone you’ve been scouting for months doesn’t seem logical to me.
Giles is no kimbrel. Hes more sean marshall. Which brought back a fringe starting pticher and decent prospect in a ball. Hes not a proven closer nor been dominant long enough to be considered kimbrel like.
He isn’t Kimbrel yet, but he definitely isn’t Sean Marshall. He is a young talent with 4 years of control left, and with all the craze over bullpens today, should bring back a nice prospect or two.
Sean marshall had 4 years of control left and was maybe a hair worse. But he also had more than 80 big league innings under his belt. You are really underestimating marshall most likely cuz of his years as a starter.
In the 2 seasons Marshall was a full time reliever before being traded (so 2010-2011), he accumulated 150 IP, 10 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, with a 2.45 ERA, 2.07 FIP, and a 166 ERA+.
In the parts of 2 seasons Giles has been up, he’s logged 86 IP, 12 K/9, 3 BB/9, with a 1.46 ERA, 1.74 FIP, and a 258 ERA+.
Even if you want to say ERA+ isn’t linear, a 100 point gap is more than a hair. I agree that he doesn’t have the value that Kimbrel did – but I’d fancy a guess that he has more value than Marshall.
Hes logged 86 innings. I.e one season. Marshalls numbers were in a higher run scoring enviroment. His whip is also higher than marshalls. His walks and hits are up this year as the league has gotten a look at him. Hes good but the marshall comp is way closer to marshall than kimbrel. Keep in mind tge marshall trade was also in the same division which is an extra tax…
We’re comparing 2 seasons vs. 1 season. And rate stats were used (specifically because of the difference in time).
Marshall’s numbers may have come in a higher run scoring environment, but that’s where ERA+ comes in handy – it adjusts to the league ERA (so it’s how much better than the league the pitcher was). As far as WHIP, in the window we both mentioned, when Marshall was a full time reliever (2010-2011), his WHIP was 1.104 – while Giles is 1.042.
And of course Giles numbers have gone up this year. He was amazing last year (4.9 H/9 and nearly 6 K/BB) – it would be nearly impossible for any reliever to repeat that. He went from amazing to really, really good.
All in all, on the scale of Kimbrel to Marshall, Giles falls closer to Kimbrel than he does Marshall.
I’m not saying Marshall didn’t have talent, but Giles has the potential to perform at a level only a few handful of relievers can reach. Don’t forget the value of late inning relievers has increased as well.
How has the value of relievers increased? Because a team had a good bullpen doesnt mean the trade value of relievers has increased.
Marshall has never had the arm Giles has..
He uses his left. And his curveball was his bread and butter.
Bundy is also playing on a major league contract.. Which should make him even less enticing to the Phillies..
I believe Hamels isn’t all in mentally. He’s pitched into a lot of bad luck recently (the Yankees Stadium start where the team forgot how to play defense, today when he gave up 7 singles).
Sometime we as fans forget these guys are human beings. Hamels is fine physically there’s been no drop off in his stuff he’s just falling behind hitters and pitching away from contact. It was apparent in the Giants start that he doesn’t trust his defense behind him and his body language shows a disinterested pitcher (and I don’t blame him). It kind of reminds me of Greinke’s last season as a Royal although Hamels has been less vocal. He needs a change of scenery. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him go to a contender (i.e. Dodgers) and go on a run with a sub 2.50 ERA.
Did RAJ wait too long on Hamels? Oh man…I hope he screws this up, like most other things.
As much as I dislike Amaro the only ones that would suffer by him screwing up the Hamels trade would be the Phillie fans.. So, I hope he has played things correctly for once and he finally works out a trade that is beneficial for both teams..
it’s probably not even Rube’s call at this point. MacPhail and Gillick in the mix…so that’s part of reason nothing is happening. no clear cut decision maker until end of the season.
Of course he/they did. I understand holding onto players when they are not performing up to their best, but Hamels couldn’t have performed better than he did in 2014, so he was at the peak of his value, especially with a “friendly” 4 year contract (or 5 with a vesting option) and not much competition on the market.
The longer they drag this out, the less (peak) years teams will get out of Hamels.
I said back then that it would be tough to deal a Hamels-like pitcher with such a contract at the deadline, it’s more of a off-season move. Deadline is more for rentals.
But the off-season is also gonna be tough to get a deal done when there are like gazillion top starters available.
The Phillies miscalculated his value, simple as that. When you are asking teams for their young stars (Betts, Bogaerts, Pederson, Swihart, Seager, Urias) that already have more value than the chip you are trying to trade, then you got a problem.
What I don’t understand is why people only compare the players the Phillies would be receiving yet forget that they also shed a large contract. Dealing Hamels and Paps gives them almost a clean slate. So it’s more like player x + player y + being in the market for top pitching at any point they feel like spending money again.
Of course the Dodgers/Sox could also just sign the best SP available, but they wanted immediate help LAST off-season. That’s why I think it was a mistake to hold onto him.
IMO the Phillies need to get creative and trade Cole to teams who usually miss out on free agents. Toronto would make sense, but it’s not like Hamels is a lock to go there, either.
I’m not saying the verdict is in but why you would want to hold a depreciating asset you owe 90 million to when you aren’t competing. And why would a team give you more for a pitcher in July than theynwould in March?
The Phillies don’t really know what they are doing. Should have moved Hamels to the Pads instead of letting the Braves and Nats rip off AJ Preller.
Hamels is more valuable to the Phillies in the form of Cole Hamels than he is in the form of a few mediocre prospects, which is why they aren’t trading him for anything they can get.
A team would give you more in July because they are desperate and want to make a trip to the World Series.
For example, the Dodgers had a rotation of Kershaw, Greinke, Ryu, McCarthy and Anderson on opening day, but now 2 of them are out for the season, making them need for pitching.
The offer they got from the Padres of Renfroe and Hedges doesn’t look extremely appealing in hindsight anyways. Renfroe is having a good-not-great season at AA and Hedges… well..isn’t hitting MLB pitching. Granted its only a cup of coffee 22 games, but hes OPSing .455 and OPS+ of 27. Outside of 2013, Hedges never really hit at all.
yes, teams are trying for the World Series this year. But that’s not the price the Phillies want. They want the price of a pitcher who a)can help win a WS this year and b)who you control for another 4 years. So you have to find teams that want both of those things. b) kicks a lot of teams out of the market in July. Not an easy sell for top price.
b. kicks a few teams out, but it also adds a few in. Any team that will be looking at FA to fill a rotation spot in 16 would have some inkling of interest. 20M may be too much for the Blue Jays to swallow, but subtract Dickeys 12M option and he becomes a viable option. The price difference of Hamels to Samardzija will not be equal to the talent.
First off we have no clue what was really offered by the Padres. 2nd, no one is saying that they should trade Hamels for nothing. Amaro has pretty much done nothing. Rebuilds take forever if you hold onto your only good trade assets. Based off reports, it seems that Amaro picks a couple prospects or players from each team and if he cant get them, he doesnt want to trade. The Dodgers may need a pitcher, but they are not desperate for an ace as they have Kershaw and Greinke. They can get Cueto or someone else for much less and then sign them in the offseason since they have more money then small nations. They are not giving up Seeger for Hamels.
I doubt the royals would go after revere…. they don’t have a history of buying players but rather developing them, you know the way the sport was designed
You know this isn’t true right? The Royals drafted or signed as amateur free agents only 9 out of their current 25 man roster. They brought in 6 of the 25 via trade including Cain, Escobar and Davis, and the other 10 players were signed as free agents. The idea that teams build through the draft in baseball is a fallacy. The best teams will usually have a couple of superstars that were drafted or signed as amateurs, but the majority of their team will be made up of free agents and trades.
I heard the jays had a trade in place for Hamels around a month ago but he blocked it. Did it ever get out what Toronto was offering?
I’m pretty sure it’s come out that it wasn’t true. Of course, we never really know the truth on deals that don’t get made but I think Hamels said he hasn’t been asked to waive his NTC for any deal yet and that he wouldn’t rule out going to TOR or HOU. I think it’s clear neither are his top choice (no idea why he wouldn’t want to join an up and comer like HOU), but if they’re the only choice vs staying in Philly, I think he waives.
I did read something a week or so ago that the Phillies and Blue Jays had a Papelbon deal, but Phillies management put that on hold. Probably around when the MacPhail hiring occurred. But who knows.
Enough with the rumors, let’s see some trades.
” so most teams probably view him as a tertiary target.” I didn’t know teams viewed Revere as a third rate player.. Granted he doesn’t have the power you would normally want in a corner outfielder but 3rd rate seems to be a bit of a stretch..
I’d love the Mets to make a run at him. I doubt he’d cost that much, but he could provide some speed (their team speed sucks) and maybe an improved bat, as Cuddyer has been awful most of the year.
After Hamels last two starts maybe the Phillies are better off waiting to next years deadline?
Revere has been phenomenal post April.