The Padres have had internal discussions about the possibility of dealing for Red Sox third baseman Pablo Sandoval, Jon Heyman tweets. (Via WEEI’s Rob Bradford, the Padres deny that there have been any substantive talks.) The Padres are not among the three teams to whom Sandoval can block a trade, Heyman adds. Sandoval is still owed $75MM through 2019, including a $5MM buyout on his 2020 option, so as Heyman notes, a deal to send Sandoval from the Padres to the Red Sox would likely include money to offset his contract.
The Red Sox recently named rookie Travis Shaw their starter at third base ahead of Sandoval, even though they’re only one year into Sandoval’s contract. The Padres, meanwhile, reportedly had a scout watching Sandoval, although it wasn’t clear how much interest they had in him or whether that scout might be watching someone else. The Padres had interest in Sandoval during their splashy 2014-15 offseason, reportedly offering Sandoval a nine-figure deal that exceeded the Red Sox’ offer in total value.
The Padres might now see Sandoval as presenting an opportunity to buy low, although it’s not clear whether Sandoval is an upgrade over current Padres third baseman Yangervis Solarte. Solarte hit .270/.320/.428 last season and projects to produce 1.6 fWAR, via ZiPS. Sandoval, meanwhile, batted .245/.292/.366 and projects to produce 0.9 fWAR (although another projection system, Steamer, rates him as being likely to produce half a win better than that). Sandoval would seem to be a curious addition for a Padres team that was badly burned by veteran additions two winters ago and now seems more focused on trading high-profile veterans rather than on adding them.
There’s been some speculative conversation about a trade that could send Sandoval to San Diego and James Shields to Boston, and a Sandoval/Shields framework might make some sense, at least on a purely financial level — the Padres still owe Shields $65MM on the deal he signed with them last offseason. While Shields’ home-run-heavy first year with the Padres was merely a relatively small disappointment, though, Sandoval’s first year with Boston was a disaster, so the two players’ current values seem somewhat different.
Yeah, sending Sandoval to any NL team at this point doesn’t make any sense to me at this point. He is unlikely to be an improvement over nearly any team’s 3B at this point, and Sandoval doesn’t really play another position. Unless he can help you DH a little, I wouldn’t want to pick him up with that contract only to have him on the bench a lot.
He can also play first, maybe better than he can play third, but as a giants fan I think the reason he struggled in Boston was because the sox didn’t make him watch his weight. So maybe he could put up good numbers again with a team that forced him to stay fit
What’s the point of that though? Even when he was in San Fransisco he had really only a couple good seasons and if he was a 1B he’d be a league average player for that position with the bat.
There’s still no guarantees he’d be a good 1B and his bat doesn’t play there.
A DH who can’t hit? Yeah, that’s a great idea.
Uhhhhhh… Remember when Middlebrooks was SD’s 3B? Pretty sure they haven’t gotten better, nor could they do worse… SD is a low-pressure environment and Pablo would be back in CA where he is more comfortable… People rarely consider the psychological factors behind performance… Look at Carl Crawford for an example… Dumping Pablo for peanuts would be good for both sides here with the Sox taking on some $$$, but as a Sox fan I’d love to see Pablo packaged for either shields or Ross… One can only dream
Please someone take this fat man off the Sox roster, he is an embarassment
He hits better when he’s fat though.
I would think SD would want to off load – Upton – more than Shields
Yep. Or Kemp.
Actually, a Kemp for Sandoval swap makes slightly more sense for the Padres, especially if they don’t think the DH is happening in the NL next year.
But that would be totally unappealing to the Sox obviously.
Red Sox already have Rusney Castillo on the bench. I don’t think they need another OF. They do need an inning eating starting pitcher.
Upton had a 1.6 WAR in the 2nd half and only has 2 years left on deal. He actually could have trade value if he repeats.
Actually that’s only half crazy. Make Boston take m upton shields for Pablo (and cash from Boston to San Diego). Boston van them
Oops.. Boston can then do whatever they want to upton (a la the Dodgers and Latos and Morae last year)
I think the Padres would much rather have Kemp than Sandoval. Sure kemp is terrible defensively but he drove in 100 runs on a terrible team.
RBI’s are a terrible stat. Kemp was a very good hitter with men on base though (.901), and an Okay hitter with RISP (.722), but it’s still a terrible stat.
Nevertheless, he had 302 PA with men on base compared to just 346 with the bases empty. (47%). The Padres as a team had 41% of PA with men on base.
Runs scored doesn’t matter either. Overrated.
Yeah dude, same… Who wants players that can knock in runners in scoring position? Baseball is now golf, lowest score wins
the ONLY two stats that really matter are runs scored and runs driven in. all the other nonsense—especially WAR—is meaningless. Kemp drove in 100 runs for a team that was dead last in BA and OBP…meaning, he had far fewer chances than say someone Bautista, Donaldson or Encarson at Toronto—a team that had the highest OBP last year and all those guys knocked in well over 100rbi’s. I’m sure SD execs talk about a lot of players all the time who might be available as every other team does. Both Kemp and Shields were productive last year ….. Sandoval wasn’t and now, he’s not even going to start.
I just have a funny feeling now that a trade is going to happen. San Diego would be dumb to take him unless the Red Sox ate 50% of the contract, maybe more.
And no, Shields for Sandoval is a horrible trade for San Diego, no matter how much is invovled. Sandoval’s WAR the last 4 seasons is just 5.7, whereas Shields is more than double that (12.6) the last 4 seasons.
And just because Shields is older doesn’t mean he’s going to be worse than Sandoval over the remainder of their deals
Shields has 3 years left on his contract from the ages of 35-37. There have been 13 qualified starting pitchers from the last 5 years that have pitched from the ages of 35-37. 7 of the 13 had a 4.2 WAR or higher those 3 seasons (combined, not per year). Of the 6 that didn’t, only One of them started every game he pitched. I used
Meanwhile, Sandoval has 4 years left from ages 29-32. The average Total WAR the last 5 years for players ages 29-32 is just 6.2, an average of slightly over 1.5 WAR per year.. For pitchers ages 35-37, it’s 4.2, an average of 1.1 WAR per year. Note that those numbers are not accurate. I used the player who was ranked at the median number (13 pitchers, used #7. 103 position players, used #52)
One other thing to keep in mind as far as Shields goes, is that he’s started 33 games or more Every Year from 2008-2015. He ranks 1st in all of baseball for SP in that time span, and is ranked 14th in WAR.
Sandoval on the other hand only ranks 41st in games played for position players from 2009-2015 and he ranks just 69th in WAR for position players in that same time span.
No matter how much $ is involved, that’s a bad trade for San Diego. An above average pitcher for a below average position player is awful.
I don’t care what league averages say.
Young with upside is Cashman’s mantra, right? That is Panda vs Shields. 29 years old is a player still in their prime who has had 1 bad season. Which player is the likely one to rebound going forward?
Having players over 35 on your roster is a recipe for disaster. Now imagine having 3 in your starting 9? Gulp!
at age 29, pablo SHOULD be in his prime and he might be IF he were about 50-60 pounds lighter. his “prime” was his first full season when he was terrific. the last four years, he’s been pretty mediocre at best, averaging 14hr, 67rbi and about .275. Shields is a pro. He shows up to work every 5th day, pitches 7 innings and gives you a chance to win. Last year, was terrific for a bad hitting team. Frankly, the chances of Shields still being a productive pitcher at age 38 are a lot better, IMO, than Panda being productive at age 34.
Only way would be if the redsox threw in top 10 prospect and maybe even a lower ranked prospect. I would like to see Sandoval at 3rd base with Solarte going to utility i just cant see sandoval bouncing back too well.
Preller dodged a bullet by not signing Pablo as a free agent now he wants to trade for the contract? The Padres seem to lack any direction at all and look to be doing what the Rockies did for too long refusing to start over.
sandoval porcello and a prospect for shields and kemp
If San Diego trades for him they should make him jog from Boston to California.
He should be arriving just in time for the 2018 season.
If they trade Panda for Shields, Shields can still opt out at the end of the season.
I believe Shields can opt out even if he isn’t traded, at least according to Cot’s
15:$10M, 16:$21M, 17:$21M, 18:$21M, 19:$16M club option ($2M buyout)
perks: hotel suite on road
deal does not include no-trade clause, but Shields may opt out of contract after 2016 season (no later than 3 days after World Series)
That is one strange Perks I may say.
I don’t see shields opting out of his deal at his age. He’s still a quality pitcher but I don’t think another team will give him more then what he got last year. Unless that team could be the dbacks. Another pitcher to go with greinke corbin and miller. The cubs make another perfect fit for shields.
I agree. He’d have 2 years/$40 million left (club option). If he rebounds and has a good season he Might opt out and Might even get a 3 year deal. But like you said, I don’t see it happening
And Shields can be a good fit almost anywhere.
He’s not a good fit for yankee stadium or fenway. A pitchers park would be his best fit. The cubs would be nice back with maddon.
Where’s the A’s on Sandoval? Don’t they wanna complete the tubby set with Butler
DD missed the boat. Preller had to have the four prospects for Kimbrel to regain credibility with the SD fans. DD should have insisted on including Panda and taking back Upton’s 34MM.instead of signing Young for 14MM. If the Sox had to throw in another lesser player it would have been worth it He could have had Uribe cheap as a two year bridge to Devers.
Why don’t the Dodgers make it a three way: Padres get Panda and Boston cash, Dodgers get Shields and his full contract, and Boston gets a marginal prospect from LA and a big sigh of relief..
TommyL
The Dodgers saved Boston the last time the Sox made terrible personnel acquisitions for unbelievable cash that they began to regret almost immediately….it would be inconceivable that LA might actually come to their rescue a second time in a lifetime.
Sorry TommyL, I don’t think the Tooth Fairy is striking twice to save Boston.
Dodgers wouldn’t be saving Boston from the tub of goo, Padres would. Dodgers are simply getting an innings eating fifth starter out of the deal.
By the way, Adrian Gonzalez is still leading Dodgers to one division title after another.
well I don’t see him doing that this year, without greinke their a third place team.
Your baseball prognostication appears to be as bad as your spelling (it’s they’re not their). Kershaw, Kasmir, Maeda and Wood, followed soon by the best of Urias, DeLeon, Ryu, McCarthy and Anderson, will do just fine as Greinke begins sucking more than $200 million from the Snakes over the next six years. (yes that’s $34 million+ per year for an age 32-37 pitcher. 2015 Greinke is history.
Kershaw, Maeda and who? So the Dodgers have a great ace in Kershaw and Maeda is a decent #3/#4 type starter, but after that its all a question marks. Injuries have devastated the staff with Ryu, Anderson, McCarthy, Wood and now Kazmir being injured. While those prospects look good in the minors, they have not been tried at the major league level, so you have no idea how they will respond. Ethier being out is a huge loss and the Dodgers have committed to a guy that struggled in CF. This is going to be an interesting year for the Dodgers and not in a good way. 2nd or 3rd place is a good result for them.
Red Sox fans will take the one WS title in 2013 and let the Dodgers have the three division wins.
You must be reading last ‘months papers. Kasmir and Wood are not hurt, and Maeda is a #2. Ethier will be missed but there are plenty of platoon options for LF until he returns. Pederson is hittlng well this spring under a new hitting coach. Add in a full year of Seager, a healthy Puig, a rejuvinated Utley, a better bullpen, and the magic that is Gonzalez, Turner and Jansen, and LA sips the NL West champagne once again,
Hey.. I think what you put on the table is only half crazy… Pablo isn’t a ‘zero’ he is just a horrible value at $17 mm/year. If Boston can buy that down to $6-8mm/year and let San Diego gamble they can manage his weight, hey not a bad way for Boston to ‘buy their way out’ of a bad decision…
Shields would be a great #4-5 pitcher for any rotation In baseball. Once again not for $21 mm/year, but for the Dodgers that is chump change… And the Dodgers desperately need ‘real innings eaters’ in their 3-5…
Boston has enough young talent coming up that a ‘non playing, weight gaining, unhappy’ panda is just going to block player development. They should be glad to ‘buy themselves out of’ the deal. Mid level minor leaguer is about all they can hope for
Other option. Pay panda the ‘full’ $17 mm/year AND have him block development of upcoming talent for the next 4 years…
Preller can’t get out of his own way. Andy Bernard level boob…Cornell try hard, I belong type.
The guys on WEEI said a few minutes ago that Dombrowski is committed to Shaw and is willing to eat half of Panda’s remaining contract in order to move him. They were saying Padres asked for Red Sox to pay all of Shields contract, that Shields waive his opt out and a young pitching prospect, probably Espinosa.
I fail to see how this speculated Shields / Sandoval swap is anywhere close to an even swap. Sure, their contracts are almost equal in total committed value, but that’s about it. Shields is a proven, veteran starter with a good, durable track record–something of value alone on a young pitching staff.
I keep hearing this argument that Sandoval is a ‘buy low’ opportunity. Alot of people called Lehman Bros. a good ‘buy low’ leading up to their implosion. The market, as with MLB talent, can always go lower.
Call me crazy, but on a heads up basis I’d say Shields brings far more value than Sandoval to just about any MLB team today. Shields’ career may be in slow decline, but it’s starting at a higher basis today than Sandoval’s. Pablo’s career looks like a bottle rocket that’s landed in a bucket of crisco.
I see no deal unless Preller somehow gets the entire Red Sox farm system.
So the entire Sox farm system and Sandoval for a declining overpaid pitcher who would get constantly shelled in Fenway and YS? I thought Sox fans were the ones who grossly overvalued their players, I was wrong.
From what the guys on WEEI have been saying all day, the idea is Sandoval and half his salary plus a pitching prospect for Shields. Some saying Padres asked for Espinosa, some saying Johnson. Either way it’s a top prospect.
If I am understanding them right, the sticking point is not the prospect or the money, its Shields waiving his opt-out clause.
Thats a terrible trade for the sox. They pay half his salary and lose a top pitching prospect for a guy whos likely gonna compete with porcello for most runs allowed at Fenway.
Jesus Christ. Preller seriously needs adult supervision.
Great!
I wrote the 2nd sentence over a year ago.
I still say no Sandoval trade unless it’s for something like Taylor Lindsey with the Sox paying at least 90% of Pablo’s contract.
Maybe Sandoval will do better in SD….
Doubt it. The burritos are pretty good in San Diego.
I miss those burritos.
Poll –
Under Preller! the Padres are:
o Going all out to the WS this year
o Trying to win the NLW
o Trying to get a WC spot
o Hoping to get to .500 as the team is being re-toooled
o Rebuilding
o Blowing it up to start a rebuild
o All Of The Above
All of the above and hoping for best.
Sandoval-for-Shields would benefit Boston in one way. Sandoval is an everyday disaster. Shields would only be an every-five-day disaster.
Shields had a 13-7 record for a team that lost 88 games. That’s damn impressive. Hardly a “disaster.”
Get that “13-7 record” out of here! Wins and losses aren’t real stats!
LOL….yeah…i keep forgetting that in this forum, “WAR” is the only thing that matters, not wins, losses and runs scored/batted in! who needs that stuff! 🙂
Wins are important for the team as a whole. Not for individual pitchers. Are you saying Colby Lewis was better than Shelby Miller in 2015?
Ask yourself this question…..if Miller was so good last year, why were the Braves willing to trade a young pitcher whom they control for another three years for minor leaguers? Lewis had a three terrible games last year where he gave up 26 ER in nine innings. Take away those three games and his ERA is around 3.5…..pretty respectable in the AL and in that ballpark. The Rangers kept him on the hill in some of those outings to save the bullpen and “take one for the team.” He faded at the end of the season but without Lewis being pretty consistent all year, it’s doubtful the Rangers win the AL West. He logged 204 innings—far more than any other pitcher in a Rangers uniform last year. So yes, I would rather have had Lewis than Miller last year for the Texas Rangers.
Wow, I don’t understand what Preller is thinking. He really loves testing the boundaries of his job.
The only decent take is San Diego has good burritos. Man I really hope Pablo the hut isn’t coming to town.. Solarte gives you the same production with no headache..
Seriously if SD is looking to take on a bad contract to unload Shields, I wish Coppy would through Boni and Bourn at him. I think Shields would do well in NL East and taking Bourn would offset 2016 payroll and Shields could be 1 or 2 going into SunTrust.
Atlanta cut Bourn. the Padres can get him for the minimum if they want. Shields is still a quality pitcher.
I think Shields and a pitching prospect not named Espinosa for Panda is a good for the sox bc I think not only do they great rid of panda but I think it would open up spot not for Devers but for moncada bc he is blocked by peedy
so why trade a quality pitcher for a fat, unproductive player with a huge contract who is not even a starter?
Why would we want to do that?