The Orioles have deployed an all-right-handed rotation this season — a top-heavy one, at that — and MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports that they’re interested in acquiring a left-handed arm to help balance it out. Among the names in which Baltimore has shown interest are San Diego’s Drew Pomeranz and Pittsburgh’s Francisco Liriano, according to Morosi.
Baltimore’s need for rotation help is clear. The O’s have a narrow lead in the American League East (one game ahead of Boston, two ahead of Toronto), but Chris Tillman is their lone starter with an ERA south of 4.00. In fact, Kevin Gausman (4.37) and Tyler Wilson (4.57 as a starter) are the only other two pitchers that have started a game for Baltimore this season and presently own an ERA under 5.00. Non-Tillman starters for the Orioles have posted a collective 5.53 ERA. The Orioles have an excellent bullpen, but their relievers’ 237 1/3 innings are currently the 10th-most in all of Major League Baseball, and eight of the nine teams whose bullpens have posted higher innings totals have sub-.500 records. Rarely can contending teams rely this heavily on their relief corps.
Pomeranz has been an oft-mentioned trade candidate over the past few weeks as it’s become more and more clear that the Padres will be sellers on the summer trade market, but Liriano’s name hasn’t been mentioned much to date. Of course, there are multiple reasons for that. Firstly, while the Bucs have underwhelmed this season, they’re still just three games under .500 and 4.5 games back from a Wild Card spot in the National League. It is in no way clear that they’ll entertain selling off pieces of their big league roster this summer, and Morosi adds that GM Neal Huntington recently told MLB.com that his focus remains on winning in 2016.
Secondly, Liriano simply isn’t performing well in 2016 and is owed another $20.25MM through the end of the 2017 season as of this writing ($7.25MM for the duration of ’16 and $13MM in ’17). Liriano was terrific for the Bucs from 2013-15, posting a 3.26 ERA with 543 strikeouts against 214 walks in 518 innings out of the rotation. However, his old control problems have resurfaced in 2016, as he’s averaged 5.6 walks per nine innings (including tonight’s start) en route to a 5.17 ERA. Liriano is still averaging better than a strikeout per inning, and his velocity is holding steady (92.3 mph average fastball), but in addition to his glut of free passes he’s been exceptionally homer-prone.
Pomeranz, meanwhile, is a more plausible trade candidate, but the Padres needn’t feel motivated to deal him. Unlike many summer trade candidates, Pomeranz is controlled for multiple years beyond the 2016 season; San Diego can keep him through at least 2018 by way of arbitration, and the fact that he’s only now in the midst of a breakout season at age 27 has suppressed his arbitration earnings to date. Pomeranz is earning $1.35MM as a first-time arbitration-eligible player, but he’s pitched like a top-tier starter for an otherwise dismal Padres staff. In a team-leading 81 innings this season, the former No. 5 overall draft pick has posted a 3.00 ERA with 10.7 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 and a 45.6 percent ground-ball rate.
Certainly, there’s reason to approach Pomeranz’s success with some degree of caution. The former top pick, like many before him, posted dreadful numbers at Coors Field for the first three seasons of his career before being flipped to the A’s. Pomeranz posted solid numbers in Oakland, but he did so as more of a swingman than a regular member of the Athletics’ rotation. He’s never topped 147 innings in a single season (combined between the Majors and minors), and he hasn’t even climbed that high since 2012. He also battled a shoulder injury last season and dealt with a biceps injury back in 2013. Pomeranz figures to surpass his 2015 innings total the next time he starts for San Diego, and how well his arm can hold up over the life of a full season’s worth of innings remains to be seen.
Nevertheless, he’s an intriguing asset whose stock is on the rise while playing for a last-place club with an aggressive general manager and front office in place, so the debate of whether he should be traded or retained figures to be one of the more interesting topics as the non-waiver trade deadline draws nearer. Pomeranz has already been connected to the O’s and Marlins this week alone, and other suitors figure to line up in the weeks to come.
The other piece of the equation in this scenario is whether the O’s have the necessary talent to acquire either of these arms (or another rotation upgrade). Entering the season, Baseball America and ESPN’s Keith Law pegged the Orioles as having the game’s fourth-worst farm system. That’s not to say that the O’s don’t have appealing players, but the lack of depth in their system will allow other teams ample opportunity to offer superior packages in trade talks.
Alvarez for Liriano? LOL. Kidding, obviously.
Liriano for Dylan Bundy. Yes, seriously. Bundy has been hurt and hasn’t met expectations. Ship him out for a proven pitcher that can help immediately. Both benefit from a change of scenery. A classic one for one trade, no filler from either side. Fair deal.
Seriously? Change of scenery is for guys who are struggling – not guys who have been hurt. Bundy is finally healthy and working towards his potential. At this point, he’s far more valuable than Liriano. No way the Orioles make that trade.
I disagree, only because we’ve only seen minimal success out of Bundy as a reliever. Hes started only 17 games in the last 4 seasons
Because of injuries. He’s healthy now, younger than Liriano and has more upside. I wouldn’t trade him if I was Duquette.
I have a hard time viewing Bundy as having anything nearly high enough to trade for a SP.
Through all the injuries and the knowledge that again, his arm could be made of glass, he’s far more valuable to the O’s than any other team in baseball.
He also has 0 options. Any struggles he has to go through at all has to be dealt at the major league level. That’s not good for a player who has little MLB experience
Good point about 0 options. If I were the Pirates I definitely would NOT accept this trade then. My apologies for bringing it up. The Orioles would be robbing the Pirates if this went through.
Honestly, I don’t know if the Pirates would even accept that trade. As others said – Bundy is more valuable to the Orioles than anyone else. But if I were the Orioles that is an offer I would mäkē.
Maybe we’re talking to the wrong people. I doubt the Padres will let Pomeranz go without getting a top prospect in return. But his track record is short, so buyers might be reluctant to pay that price.
Sure, we’d like a lefty if possible. But a decent RHP would be an acceptable substitute. How about the Rockies? Bettis’ best pitches are breaking balls and those don’t work very well at altitude. Put him at sea level and you could see a transformed starter as we saw with Jason Hammel a few years back. If we offer them somebody like a Chance Sisco and a Mike Wright (for their bullpen since they’re looking for guys with good fastballs), would they say no?
And Doug Fister may lose his job soon in Houston They have two young arms down on the farm (Musgrove, Rodgers) that are knocking on the door. Surely we could get him for a B grade prospect. He won’t strike out a ton of batters but he keeps the ball on the ground (49% GB rate) which fits perfectly with our outstanding infield defense.
Ummm, no. Bundy might work as part of a package for a better pitcher, but Liriano is walking everybody, has a mediocre GB rate, and an enormous FIP, not to mention a laughably bad contract.
If the pirates fall out of contention I could see it. Idk if the o’s could take that much money though
Price of starting pitching spiked significantly. Liriano has a very, very reasonable salary. If PIT can afford it, BAL can.
Not at his current production IMO
He is having a down year but that doesn’t mean he can’t turn it down. If he were a free agent right now, a team would offer him at least the contract he currently has. So it’s a good value contract.
i’m not sure how the O’s plan on getting a good SP. tons of teams are in the mix for SP. the farm is not great and Bundy has lost most of his shine. The guy is a bull pen arm at best.. Jomar Reyes could be a nice addition to a teams farm but other than that….maybe the O’s can get Straily or Bud Norris.
Bundy is actually getting his “shine” back now that he’s healthy. And if I’m the O’s, I don’t trade him now that he’s finally on the way to realizing his potential.
He’s been an OK middle reliever at best. He’s not really getting his shine back. Nothing special anymore
Bundy has thrown only 200 professional innings since 2012, has been held back by injury, and has not had a chance to develop at all and you’re immediately going to say he’s a middle relievers at best. Have you seen this guy’s stuff? It’s fantastic. He’s developing it in the majors only now because he’s 1. healthy and 2. out of options. He’s working as a reliever on a starters rotation to reduce his innings and to eventually ease him into a starters role, which may not be this year. I how we give up on young guys so quickly. They fail once and people go, “Oh he’s ‘this’.”
I find it hard to believe that any team would give up on a guy like Bundy at this point. He’s 23. I find it even more difficult to believe that a team that gave up on Arrieta would risk the same outcome by dealing Bundy for a quick short-term fix.
I agree. As long as he can stay healthy—and Buck has been careful to slowly build up his innings—he’s a long term cost-controlled asset.
It should be remembered that he’s not allowed to use his favorite pitch—the cutter—until management is convinced he’s healthy. And they have put limitations on his use of the slider as well.
But this has forced him to learn how to throw the changeup and that can only pay dividends in the future. His fastball and curveball have been solid if unspectacular this year. But he himself admits he’s holding back on the fastball.
Keep him, cross your fingers that he’ll stay healthy and in 2017 you’ll have a starter with a five pitch arsenal. And the reins taken off of him.
The hard part with the Orioles is that don’t have many intriguing prospects to trade. If the Pirates feel that liriano can come back to form (or even if other teams think so), it’d be hard to imagine Baltimore winning the bidding.
Plenty of teams want pomeranz. Highest bidder wins. What do the orioles have to offer though?
Bundy straight up would be an aggressive offer.
Pomeranz will fetch way more than a former prospect turned middle reliever. He is going to net a top 50 prospect if the Padres trade him.
They were talking about this on 1090 today and one idea that was floated was Jomar(?) Reyes, Chris Lee, and Ofelty (?) Peralta who they said is a 19 year old kid Preller scouted in the DR and thought he had signed when he was with the Rangers that has an upper 90s FB. I don’t claim to have any knowledge of Orioles prospects, so I have no idea if this is a good trade or not.
I will give you an A for originality, but do you think all these teams are going to part with their top prospects? Houston is not going to part with Bergman, tucker and reed. I doubt Pittsburgh would part with bell, Meadows and Taillon. Interesting trade proposal though.
On behalf of Jeff Luhnow, No Thanks.
Hmm I wonder what Preller is going to do with Pomeranz. I don’t see him trading him to the Orioles if there’s another team with a better offer out there. I definitely feel like it would be good to move him though.
Bundy was my first thought, with a smaller piece thrown in. I’m a Padres fan and would love to see Pom stick with the team but that walk rate is starting to get a little worrisome, which has always been his bugaboo. The truly scary thing is that if the Padres start trading off starters, they absolutely have nobody to start games. I’m remembering a few years ago when they were forced to start guys like Kip Wells and Jeff Suppan and Ross Ohlendorf and Jason Marquis. Like, San Diego doesn’t actually have enough starting pitchers right now.
I know San Diego isn’t going anywhere this season, but watching Perdomo start isn’t very fun, and I shudder to think of who comes next in the event of a Pomeranz trade.
Does it really matter who starts for the Padres the next 2 years? Keeping Pomeranz will just make them lose a couple less games and possibly draft a few spots lower.
It matters if, like me, you enjoy watching baseball. Watching Jeff Suppan and his 83-MPH fastball a few years ago was painful. I’m a baseball fan first, and watching a non-competitive team is hard enough, let alone one that is throwing non-major league pitchers out on a regular basis.
Jamie Moyer couldn’t break glass yet won a lot of games. Pomerancz and Rodney will have some interest but neither are guys a team would break the bank for like Texas did last year Hamels
Oh my God, who the Hell cares? The prospects Pomeranz could bring in are way more valuable than a few extra meaningless wins! If the Padres aren’t going to make the playoffs they can go 0-162 for all I care!
I love these so much. I wish you had your own website. I’m pretty sure there has never been a trade remotely like this in baseball history, especially one in which one team gives up all its best prospects, but these are fun to read simply because you’ve done a lot of work on this stuff.
“In fact, Kevin Gausman (4.37) and Tyler Wilson (4.57 as a starter) are the only other two pitchers that have started a game for Baltimore this season and presently own an ERA under 5.00.”
Not so. Vance Worley made 2 starts and presently has an ERA of 2.66
Of course that give the Orioles 4 (including Worley), while the Red Sox have 3 with Wright, Porcello and Price, and the Yankees only have 2 with Tanaka and Sabathia.
If you made this post 4 days ago, Eovaldi and Nova would be included.
1B isn’t a big glaring need for Houston. Yes, both CI spots could be much improved. However, two of the guys you expect Houston to deal could fill those spots (Reed and Bregman).
What they really need is SP help. I doubt they can bring in a SP that makes a difference, someone is going to have to step up (or have fiers/keuchel/mchugh all start trending in the right direction). This trade just makes no sense whatsoever for Houston.
We get it. I don’t think you get it.
Well they could always bring up that guy Vince Vel… oh wait.
I’d much rather the O’s get Pomeranz than Liriano. Pomeranz is controllable for the next few years at a low price while Liriano is still owed around $20M. They have the players to get either but I think Pomeranz would be the better choice.
Liriano has a longer success rate.
Pomeranz should have happened during the series.
Who knows though.
They are playing the Friars again next week
SP is going to be very expensive bc of the amount of teams needing it. Not sure the o’s have the enough good prospects in farm system. Will they trade of their major league roster?
They don’t have the top of the line prospects in their minor leagues but they have more than what people think to make a good trade
How long did it take you to come up with that?
The Orioles have plenty of talent to get either
I’d prefer Drew
Higher upside less cost $$ wise
I’d offer a package of Ryan Mountcastle and Chance Sisco for him. A projectable SS and Good hitting Catcher. That should be plenty for Drew.
If the Orioles are making a serious play at Pomeranz they should try to get a deal done sooner rather than later and more teams get involved. Mancini or Reyes plus Mountcastle would be intriguing as a return. Pomeranz may not be worth that much but to get a deal done this year while the O’s still have Trumbo and Wieters may be worth it to the FO.
I can definitely see the Orioles parting with a position player prospect for either of the two starters mentioned. However, I don’t think we’ll see them move a pitching prospect. Mostly this is because they are so thin already in the pitching prospect department. Having a lefty in the rotation would be great. Since I think they’ll part with Jimenez if he doesn’t get it by the end of Spring Training next year, this would open up some places to add. They do have some good position prospects that are reduplicating positions already staffed.
Gotta wonder what Joey Rickard would fetch right now. Not saying he’s going anywhere but you have to wonder.
Rickard isn’t going anywhere. He’s improving on defense and stable offensively. He’s also still much more potential than he is current performance.
I hate to say it but If i where the Pirates I’d trade Liriano if the return was at least fair but I don’t think the O’s really have much to give that the Pirates could realistically ask for other than taking over his contract.
I may be crazy, but I wouldn’t mind the Braves getting Pomeranz. We could use a lefty starter for our rebuild and have the prospects for it. Maybe grab Kemp while we are at it? We could trade them back some of their prospects.
If the Pirates decide not to sell, could anyone see them shipping meadows away to gain something at the deadline? I know he’s currently blocked and could be used to get a real solid piece for the rotation.
I also don’t know a whole lot about him as a defender. If they hang onto him, could he see time at first and have josh bell moved to third? That way Pittsburgh keeps the outfield they have plus meadows and bell? Or is that to far fetched. Don’t tear me apart it’s just a thought.
No
I would trade a position player like Christian walker for Pomerantz in a heartbeat.
I could see Texas & SD talking deal for Pomeranz & Rodney. Rangers have the prospects and Preller worked for JD with the Rangers so he knows the system pretty well and one would assume, a good working relationship. Texas right now has four starting pitchers on the DL and could use a boost, although several won’t be out too long. They could also use some help in the pen. No team has enough good pitchers.
The Orioles really need pomeranz or Liriano.
We are nothing with Jimenez and wright in the rotation.
Bundy would be a great chip and even hunter Harvey or Chris lee.
If we want to be successful in the post season then we gotta get a solid lefty ace to go along with tillmans fantastic year and what Gallardo is about to have now that he’s back.
Orioles should also inquire about a markakis reunion to get an extra bat.
Anyways get keen for the Sedlock future! He’s gonna be a stud
The Orioles would be serious World Series contenders if… somehow they could get Drew Pomeranz and Jeremy Hellickson while only giving up Dylan Bundy and either of Ublado Jimenez or Hunter Harvey. That would give them the quality depth to survive games while their offense, bullpen and defense keeps them going.