The asking prices for starting pitching don’t appear to be dipping even as some more supply hits the market, according to reports from ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick and Jayson Stark (Twitter link). Both the Rays and Phillies are said to be seeking significant returns on their best trade assets, buttressed by the idea that they don’t have to sell.
For Tampa Bay, the fact remains that none of its starters are set to reach free agency after the season, so there’s no real urgency to deal. The Rays’ surplus of controllable arms isn’t such a pressing matter that a deal is necessary, and none of its apparent trade pieces is really pitching to expectations. Jake Odorizzi has been steady enough, but the others — Chris Archer, Matt Moore, and Drew Smyly — have at best been inconsistent. Against that backdrop, perhaps it’s unsurprising that appealing offers have apparently not yet developed.
There’s plenty of time between now and the August 1st deadline for that to change, of course, but sources suggest to Crasnick that the odds are shifting towards a move over the winter. The Rays can hope that its starters turn around their performances while still feeling comfortable that the demand will be there given with a weak pending free agent class. As an executive on a buy-side teams explains it: “There’s no urgency for them to do stuff now. They can set a price, and if they don’t get it, they’ll take it into the offseason.”
As for the Phillies, the deadline is more or less all about one name: Jeremy Hellickson. According to Stark, the Phils are letting other teams know that they will require a top-five type of organizational prospect in order to part with the resurgent righty. Though he’s a free agent, Philadelphia is apparently content with the idea that it can recoup value via the qualifying offer.
That trade stance seems like an interesting gambit that the Phillies organization is well-positioned to try. Hellickson has been lights-out of late, and the rental market is otherwise headlined by an injured Rich Hill and inconsistent Andrew Cashner. Actually holding onto Hellickson is not certain to result in a draft pick — he might fall off in the next several months or could accept a QO — but it’s a plausible enough idea at this point given that Philly has ample financial muscle to actually make him an offer even in the midst of a rebuild.
It’s the cost of doing business. The Braves (Coppolella) said they’d rather stockpile arms as currency, and for a damn good reason!
Alright im ready for everyone to tell me how dumb this is :)
But what about Moore to the Pirates for Harold Ramirez, Mitch Keller Alan Hanson and maybe a low A arm? Fair/Too Much/Too Light?
Not dumb,. but guessing the Rays would need either Josh Bell or Austin Meadows in a hypothetical deal.
Youre probably right, but neither (i know it would probably be both) are moving unless the Pirates are getting Archer, and even then I dont see the Pirates doing that
This is why I agree with the Phillies approach. Wouldn’t it be better for the deep Pirates to trade Keller to rent Hellickson than it would to trade a mother load to ‘control’ Matt Moore?
I think replace the low A arm with someone like Chad Kuhl and it might get it done. A major-league ready starter in Kuhl, a top-100 prospect in Garcia, a top-100 and fast rising low A arm in Keller, and a utility guy in Hanson. Moore shouldn’t include Meadows or Bell. I think that deal is very fair when compared to what the Pads got for Pomeranz….the prospects aren’t as highly rated but a lot of near majors talent plus what looks like a future top of the rotation arm in Keller. Heck, we could even throw in Jeff Locke!
All that being said, I probably wouldn’t do the deal for Moore.
Yeah youre probably right. Id feel better moving someone like Williams over Kuhl and would really consider that.
And Please! anything to dump Locke, lol
I have yet to see Williams, hopefully he gets a start in the bigs soon. His command over the last few months looks amazing. Kuhl to me looks like a guy that needs to spend the rest of the year starting in AAA to refine his control or get moved to the pen. I’m betting more on Brault for that final rotation spot next year.
I’d rather they see if they can spin Melancon for another young arm at this point. Given what Chapman returned, is it unreasonable to imagine Melancon fetching someone like Cole from the Nats?
way too high of a price for the Pirates, especially with his inconsistency the past year and a half and missing most of ’14
Moore’s good qualities include, reasonably cheap 3 more years of control, past success and he is a lefty
The pirates have a handful of prospects with higher ceilings at one tenth the price and longer control and will most likely do just as well two of which are lefties.. even if half of these prospects bust in the MLB ( Glasnow, Taillon, Kuhl, Brault, Tarpley,Kingham,Williams ) this or next season they still have a full rotation that should be better than what we started with this season.
I say addition by subtraction. Trade or release some of Liriano, Niese and Locke. Allow the young arms to finish out the last two months. Maybe pick up a rental if the price is right to help on swing days up where needed but luckily the Pirates schedule doesn’t have many of those the rest of the way.
The only way you trade for a pitcher that has multiple years of control left is if it is someone like Sale who is a Cy Young candidate every year..
I agree with the premise of letting the young guns roll with the rest of the season, but everything ive seen and read has them connected to just about every controllable starter. Of course that means almost nothing, but theres got to be a reason for that right?
And in the event of next year, say the Pirates do move Liriano and Locke and dump Niese by ST. Right or wrong, I dont see the Pirates having an opening day rotation of Cole Taillon Glasnow Kuhl and Brault/Williams/Kingham etc. Plus IMO, theres at least a non-zero chance that with the current DL stint and looking super raw, Glasnow isnt going to a permanent stay in the rotation until after the super 2 next year.
I think the Pirates keep either Locke/Neise/Liriano for next year. All have been proven decent enough for a 5th starter. My preference is Liriano since he is dominating when he is on.
I would be more than happy with Cole, Taillon, Kuhl, glasnow/Brault and Liriano next year.
I wouldnt trade Meadows since he is going to replace Cutch and wouldnt trade Bell since he SHOULD be starting now over the 0.1 WAR Jaso.
Agree
Really… if I am the Pirates there is no way I make that deal. Maybe Keller and either Locke or Neise straight up. I think that would be alot to give up for Matt Moore, since, lets face it, his numbers arent much better than what the Pirates have. The Pirates would be better off putting Glasnow and Keller and Hanson maybe another B chip for Sale. None of the Rays starters are worth a bunch of good prospects.
I do think Rameriz could go. Pirates have a stacked outfield and that guy can flat out hit.
Hellickson seems like the perfect example of a guy who would accept the QO
I would agree, but the market for SP this off season is absolutely terrible, and hes a Boras guy. That said.. I still wouldn’t even gamble on him accepting it, and would trade him for the best offer
Even if he accepts the QO he could still be traded, couldn’t he? There would be someone out there willing to take a chance on him, given 1) theres no other good options out there and 2) theyd know the phillies want to dump his payroll and would be motivated to trade him
I don’t think a player can be traded after they accept the QO until after the season starts. I might be wrong, but it seems like I remember reading that somewhere.
Brixton, if you were Boras and you thought he could reestablish himself as a three WAR pitcher, wouldn’t you consider taking the $16+M, and then looking for a $5/80 the year afterwards?
In the 2018 FA market? Hellickson would get lost in the big names and end up settling for a small 1 year deal. Especially if he had a QO attached to him.
I think the answer is in the middle… take the $40 million (or more?) this offseason. Looking at recent deals for Chen, Leake, and Kazmir he is 15 solid starts away from getting paid!
What’s the big deal of keeping Hellickson and giving him a QO? If he accepts it’s $16.7M, and the Phillies can trade him next July if they do not receive an offer to their liking now. The Phillies have nothing committed next year…what’s $16.7M to a team with a roughly $5B TV contract?
exactly.
the only issue is they have plenty of young guys to fill up all 5 starter spots next year and if Hellickson gets off to a crappy start then you cant get anything for him while paying him 16 mil…
but if what teams are offering arent close to what you could draft with a potential compensation pick, you have to consider the QO and hope Boras’ ego causes him to reject.
I think I’d agree with that, We are talking about someone with a career ERA+ of exactly 100 coming off three consecutive seasons of underperformance. Maybe he’s the guy he was with Tampa in 2011 and 2012. Or maybe not. I can’t see a QO, and a top 5 organizational prospect?
The Phillies might welcome him taking the QO, with the the Howard, Ruiz, and Morton money coming off the books. Keeping their young, cheap, improving rotation intact next year with him as the “old guy” on the staff wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.
I say this with no knowledge of the Phillies farm system and if they have a better option due to hit the majors next year.
Ben Lively and Nick Pivetta are probably next in line, both were acquired in the fire sale, however Jake Thompson is in line to take Hellickson’s spot whenever he gets traded.
They’ll be in contention within a few years, for sure. They are starting to resemble the early 00 Phillies teams to me, before they started signing the big names like Thome, Bell, and Wagner. I’m impressed with how quickly they were able to tear down and restock given how dire their situation at the major and minor league level looked just two years ago.
No way im giving the phillies a top5 prospect for a rental no way i dont care how the pitching market is
Many teams have guys in their top 5 that won’t get a deal done for helli. Yours is probably one of them, you loser. Maybe use some punctuation, idiot.
You might want to check your own grammar. “Helli’, Maybe, use…. ” are just two examples.
Hellickson would step into a lot of teams #3 slot the way he is pitching. The Marlins and Mariners are just giving wins away at this point. No reason for the Phillies to give him up cheap when they will get a pick in a stacked draft.
Do the Phillies realize that by trading Hellickson they can get a prospect or 2 in return? If they hold on to him and offer him a QO, he will probably accept it. I just don’t see him getting $17M a year in free agency. Their best option would be to lower their asking price for him and get 2 average to above average prospects instead of trying to get 1 top prospect.
It looks like Cashner will get traded first. He is a rental just like Hellickson. That will help set the market for Hellickson.
but who knows what kind of prospect? two of the interested teams are Miami and Baltimore, who don’t have much in the way of prospects to trade. top 5 orioles/marlins isnt necessarily a type 5 kind of prospect
The Phillies would be getting any teams top 5 prospect with a pick they receive. Hellickson isn’t accepting the qo. He could be in line for an Ian Kennedy deal. The draft is the strongest it’s been in 5 years.
The Phillies system has plenty of depth now. There is no need to get 2 teams late top 20 prospects
Hoping someone can clarify for me- when he says the system can change I’m assuming it’s the QO with the collective bargaining agreement. If so, I would have thought that players this year would still be subject to whatever current terms this year and next years free agents would see the change.
Can someone explain or clarify that indeed there is a chance the QO system changes and can effect this years free agents to be? Or am I on the wrong subject. My curiosity is as an A’s fan having a couple potential QO players, Hill and Reddick. If Beane and Forst fear one or both those can walk for less than a first rounder maybe they are more likely to deal him in next few days for best offer.
Yeah it was a dumb point, I took it out. I don’t think there’s any reason to believe there’d be a change to the rule that would impact the next free agent market.
Jeff, considering that MLB likely wants to keep compensation for those losing a prime FA, is it possible that the next CBA would reward a losing team a comp pick while not penalizing the signing team? That would get the players out from under the monkey on their back
I still think the best solution is to only penalize a team after they sign a 2nd QO free agent. The biggest problem right now is that teams are penalized less severely the more guys they sign which is a big problem in my mind. Here’s how I would do it.
Every team should get awarded a sandwich round pick for losing any QO free agent. regardless of whether the signing team lost a pick. Teams would lose nothing for signing a single QO free agent. Teams would lose their first round pick for signing a second QO free agent. I would remove all protected draft picks as a balance. Meaning if you have the #1 pick you would lose it just the same as the WS champ if you sign a second QO free agent. To ensure teams wouldn’t just QO everyone, I would add a 2nd year player option with accepting the QO. Meaning if you accept the QO, you would get the 1 year at 16 million and an option for a 2nd year at whatever the QO is next year. If the player declines the option, then they are an unrestricted free agent, but if they accept then the team is on the hook for a second year.
It might not be perfect, but I think it would solve the problems on all sides of this equation.
I mean, maybe… Most parts just made me wonder why bother? Haha no offense.
Ok, thank you for following up on that.
Hellickson and Neris to the Giants for Crick and Fox
Probably gonna be hated on XD
I’m a Phillies fan and that looks just swell to me.
Not giving up Neris for that. Crick stinks now. Don’t know anything about fox.
Ya, I think the Phillies would need more if Neris was included. The Giants can keep Crick.
phils wouldnt want a guy like Krick they would need to put on 40 man. Fox isnt a position of need but would be enough of a value, if his performance this year hasnt soured them too muich.
Fox is worth something, Crick not so much. it would probably take fox and a Coonrod to get that done.
Might want to check out Moore’s last 8 or so starts….I’d say he’s been the opposite of inconsistent.
Consistency in a short run of starts isn’t what I was referring to. And fwiw, he allowed 5 ER in a start on 6/24.
Not saying he isn’t talented or valuable, but saying he’s been good of late hardly counters the point. The issue is that he has looked good for stretches and then had really rough periods.
Yeah, he had 1 pretty rough stretch earlier this season (believe it was in May) but has been quite solid otherwise. Believe he’s pitched to a 3 era over the past 2 months with lower BB rate than he’s ever shown, along with a few straight up dominant outings. Also, last half dozen or so starts toward the end of last year (after coming back from TJS) were quite impressive as well. Prior to that he was an all star.
what about last year? and the year before where he was only in 2 games?
Maybe he found the problem and fixed it… maybe he is just on a streak of good luck. I haven’t seen him pitch personally.
He had TJ surgery. It usually takes two full years to get back to your old self after that surgery. He is just now reaching that timeframe. If you can get the pre-TJ Matt Moore for the current cost, you have to jump on it.
are you speaking of the two starts he made before Tommy John surgery?? Or the 10 games or so that he started after the Tommy John surgery?? Either way it seems like he’s found his Groove and for you to say he’s being inconsistent for those two years I would say it’s because of the Tommy John surgery.
Uhhh, he only had a few starts in 2014 due to TJS, which is why he didn’t pitch until the second half of last season…hopefully you got to see him dominate the Dodgers this afternoon.
DeLeon, Holmes and Barnes for Archer. Going forward, that gives LA a rotation of Kershaw, Archer, Maeda, McCarthy and Urias, with Wood, Ryu, Montas, Cotton, Alvarez, among others, as depth. They can afford giving up some high-level pitching prospects like DeLeon and Holmes.
When you say going forward, do you mean this season or next?
I mean next season and onward, point being, they can afford to ship off a couple of good prospects and still have a strong rotation over the next few years. For this season, replace Urias with Kazmir, who likely opts out for next season..
That’s not enough IMO (see: Chapman 3 month rental), but include Verdugo and that should get it done. Remember the Rays don’t need to sell low on Archer (or Odor / Moore for that matter).. He’s got one of the most team friendly contracts in all of baseball for the next 5 years.
I see, and that’s why Kazmir is out of your mix. We can only hope he opts out. The Dodgers are pretty much forced to keep trotting him out there for the next two months in the hopes he improves enough for anyone else to want him. Of course the other issue is we have no idea whether to expect Kershaw back this season. If he’s out for the duration then you can’t just substitute Urias with Kazmir. Norris drops in there too. Without Kershaw that doesn’t look like a playoff rotation to me.
The Dodgers should trade for Hamels…. o wait … nevermind :) (sorry couldn’t resist)
hellickson will not accept a QO. no way with how bad the starters are, boras will not let him take that. Even if he accepts it, it’s not that big of a deal for a big market like Phillies with a really low payroll for next year.
Why would he accept a qualifying offer? If he has a second half like the first in this market isn’t he easily going to get 4 years 44 million or more?
Phillies are very smart. Its an absolutely atrocious free agency class. Hellickson will get close to the Kazmir deal if he continues his current production.
Matt Moore inconsistent?? Uh…look at his numbers the past 10 starts. ERA below 3 and has gone 6+ innings each time. I hope to God the Rays DON’T trade him. They can dump Archer and the salary he will require, but MM has a long term contract that is very team friendly.. (At least for a stud lefty starter)
I thought we covered this already. His solid recent run is quite notable, but isn’t the same thing as simply being consistent over a long haul. Maybe it’s just semantics, but that seems to be a different point entirely. That’s a third of the season.
If The Phillies do a deal to move a starter, they should do a trade with Atlanta to obtain Touki Toussaint the team’s 10th rated prospect just outside of the MLB top 100, or Manny Banuelos, LH starting pitcher about to come off the Disabled list, or another one of their young starters like Perez, De La Rosa or Tyrell Jenkins. The Braves need a catching prospect and Alfaro likely to be catcher of the future for Philadelphia. It is possible that the Braves would give up two pitching prospects.
He was a stud until his Tommy John surgery. The first third was still gaining his form and strength back. The past 6 weeks his velo can control are back. You can’t call his performance inconsistent. It’s VERY consistent with recovery from major surgery.
And of course, his history shows he has ALWAYS been a slow started. Look at his April and May numbers historically (including minors) and look at June and beyond.
So, in an answer to your comment. No, you DIDN’T cover it already. At least not with the facts of his situation.