There are four teams heavily pursuing free-agent lefty Rich Hill, according to ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden. The Yankees, Dodgers, Rangers, and Astros are all said to be chasing down a pitcher who is arguably the best available on this year’s market. Also joining pursuit are the Red Sox and Orioles, per the report, though it seems their interest is less robust.
We’ve heard plenty of chatter about the possibility of the Yankees making a move on Hill, and the Dodgers likewise have long been said to have interest in a reunion. The AL West-rival Rangers and Astros, though, have not been tied as closely — in part, perhaps, since both have already signed starters — though MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes listed both as plausible suitors in his top-fifty free agent list. Meanwhile, the two AL East teams mentioned seemingly have fully stocked rotations, though surely both could stand to upgrade in the right situation.
Hill is coming off of an outstanding age-36 season. While he was limited to 110 1/3 innings, owing to a blister, the veteran southpaw recorded a sensational 2.12 ERA with 10.5 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9. While there was justifiable skepticism last winter, following Hill’s four excellent, late-season starts in the prior campaign, he now seems worth pursuing as a possible top-of-the-rotation arm.
There’s plenty of reason to tamper contract expectations, of course. Even if one accepts that Hill can continue to mow down opposing hitters, he’s not young and comes with a long history of injuries. And it’s certainly possible that he’s in line for some regression in the earned-run department after limiting opposing hitters to just 0.33 home runs per nine innings a season ago.
Though he essentially uses just two pitches, Hill has baffled the opposition with a heater that barely averages 90 mph and a breaking ball that he can manipulate at will. And the recent results aren’t just a batted-ball-fortune fluke; he was credited with a 2.39 FIP, 3.36 xFIP, and 3.29 SIERA in 2016. With no other true impact starters available on the open market, and despite the obvious questions, MLBTR predicts that he’ll command a $50MM guarantee over three seasons.
Not going to be the Os
temper* contract expectations.
I believe the Yankees will sign Hill, and Beltran
any thoughts???
I personally think they are done with Beltran. I think Beltran goes to the Astros, but that’s just me. I have always thought EE is going to go to the Yankees. I just think the Yankees are on a bit of a youth movement, especially for pitchers- unless it’s an affordable guy. I see them more likely to go after someone like Jason Hammel. Although EE isn’t exactly young, he is probably the most bankable hitter on the market and is only seeking a 4 or 5 year deal which is manageable. For a hitter of his caliber, 25 million a year is a complete steal….even 30 million if the bidding gets to that height.
No chance Astros sign Beltran after trading for McCann
I can see the Yankees going in for him but maybe for a large one year deal and a mutual option for a second year.
I think the Yanks will be in on EE, Chapman, and Hill, and if not they go after another starter like Hammel. I would like to see them go after Sale maybe offer Severino, Judge, Mateo, McKinney, and Kaprelian.
As much as I’d love to have Sale, I’d never give up that much. Not because he isn’t worth it but simply because I don’t wanna see the Yanks completely wipe out this supposed ‘youth movement’ for just a couple players (even if they are among the best at their position). I was a fan through the 80’s, just let the damn kids play and be satisfied with being mediocre at best for a year or two. No ‘big name’ free agent appeals to me either. Sign no one and stink. I’m okay with that and will patiently wait until the 2017 off season to make moves that will impact the team for years to come.
Insane
That’s a joke right? So, they spend the year getting rid of old, unproductive guys with huge contracts, then collect prospects and you think they will go and get more old guys who will regress on huge contracts? Really?
As a Yankee fan I’d stay away from Hill. Way too much of an injury history. I think he has under 600 ip in 12 years. Plus he will be 37 by opening day. And even if healthy he’ll be mediocre in Yankee stadium. No way I give $45-50 mil guaranteed.
I dont know, but if the Astros get Hill and Encarsion, and keep the nucleus without having to give up Bregman for a pitcher then the AL west could be over quick. (If Hill can stay healthy)
That is a really big if on Hill
And IF they sign EE
Rangers will still win the division
The Rangers overachieved last year and are losing a couple of decent bats
I tend to agree with you “stry3istrukuout” Yankees are on a youth movement. that is the reason I believe they go after Beltran to keep them competitive and is a fill gap for a year or 2 until the younger players come up. I think they will go, in a year or 2 for Machado, Harper, and Beltran will be a cheaper fill in
Agree
I feel sorry for the team that gives him multi years. 37 yo coming off career year, happens to be best available free agent pitcher, and horrible injury history.
Pray it’s not the Rangers
Hey Ricky I agree with you! Who the hell would give him $50 million crazy!
He has also shown a year and a half of top of the rotation pitcher stats. Granted he had injury problems last year, but I’d probably rather my pitcher have blister problems than arm/shoulder problems. He’s not worth giving a four year contract, but a three year deal at a decent AAV ($15-$18) isn’t bad.
If by “a year and a half” you mean 140 innings pitched.
Agreed, seems like a big gamble, I don’t see him being effective for one year, no less three!
50 million for Rich Hill is insane
I doubt he will pull down quite that much, but if somebody is going to get creative in structuring a deal that doesn’t put all the risk on the team, I strongly suspect it will come from the Dodgers, and it won’t be for a whole lot less. No team is more clearly in need and they will also like that he isn’t going to get more than three year offers from anybody.
The only real problem that the Dodgers face if an East Coast team is willing to come close then he will probably take a little less to stay on the East Coast. He has said that is his preference, however if the Dodgers have by far the best offer I’m guessing he will go west.
I had not heard him express a preference, but for all that’s worth against the only big contract he will sign in his career, I think he toughs it out wherever he is most wanted for the next few years.
As a Yankees fan I really hope they pass on this one
I totally agree…..please let the Yankees say no!
As Red Sox fan I hope the Yankees sign hill to a 3 year deal it has disaster written all over it.
I wonder what’s worse 3 years roughly $15 to $17MM per for Hill or 7 years $31MM per = $217MM for a pitcher that has never won a postseason game as a starter and had a worse ERA in 2016 than CC Sabathia? If the Yankees signed Hill for roughly the $45 to $50MM total the estimates have put on his deal and they get 20+ starts from him per year it’s would be money well spent. Having the righty Tanaka and lefty Hill as a 1, 2 combination instantly upgrades the Yankees starting rotation.
Love that price has been disappointing and that his contract will be a burden for the sox. If you can get 20-25 starts from hill as the pitcher he was last year then okay but there seems to be a lot of ifs with him and his career has been sub par other than last year and a half. Maybe a 2 year deal with a mutual option for a 3rd and 4th. If he sucks he’s only there for 2 yrs. if he’s good it gives him a possibility for a lengthier deal than most teams would give him
To add on to that give him 13 mil/yr for the 2 guaranteed yrs with a 4 mil buyout for the options. That becomes 30 mil guaranteed. The options 17mil/yr. I think making the options worth more will really keep him trying make sure he’s stays the pitcher he is now as it will most likely be his last substantial contract. 4 years 60 mil max would be a good signing if he pitches well
You do realize the odds are way against you getting 20-25 starts from Hill.
Not even close you are talking about a pitcher in Price who is one of the top hurlers in the league and pitches every fifth day. He was still in a 4.5 war pitcher in a down year I will take that all day long oh and the 225 plus innings he gives you. Yup that is a terrible contract that the Red Sox have there and he will probably pitch better back to his 5 to 6 War ways the next couple of years. Its apples and oranges Hill probably wont pitch 120 innings which will put a lot of strain on the staff that signs him. Ill take Price at his contract over 3 and 50 for Hill any day.
Yes it absolutely is a bad contract they have. Just like every other big contract with an age of 30 ,the team knows it’s bad, they know that they’re paying for however many good years he has left and then the bad years, he may still have 3-4 good years left but when you stop pitching like a 31 mil/yr pitcher it’s a bad contract but that’s the nature of free agency
30 years of age*
Wow Pinball wizard69….
This guy hasn’t made more than 20 starts in a league game since 2007 when he made 32 and even then he went 11-8.
This lefty is no good to anyone on the DL.
A disaster in the waiting for whoever signs this guy long term.
The yanks paid 25m/7 years for Jacoby!!! I take Price anytime!!!
I’m a Yankee fan and I agree with that statement.
By no way does he justify that contract but neither will price. Advanced metrics show that Ells has actually not been as bad as he seems, not good enough for that contract but not bad like everyone seems to think
24 starts ago he was a nobody.
but If I am the Astros I would probably rather risk the money and possible injury with him and hope for the best over giving up Bregman or Springer for a Sale or Archer. Although either way you never know.
If the Astros were either going to sign Hill or trade Bregman plus for Sale then I would sign Hill if I were them. I would not trade Bregman if I were the Astros.
Astros have the money to throw around, I think they get both EE and Hill. What a line-up!
Also with Price you may seem him opt out in 2 years which will be doing sox a favor. Of course Yankees will sign him because they love throwing money for players on the decline.
Francisco
No more favors for the Sox.
They’ve made enough errors on signing players to ridiculous contracts like Panda, Crawford, etc. to be let out of the Price signing which they will rue in years to come.
Throwing money at players in their decline was the old Yankees.
Said like a true Red Sox fan!
Overpaying for an older pitcher? Sounds like an Angels pick up to me
I can see my braves signing him if they dont feel someone can win that 5th spot
I’m not crazy about them signing Hill, or trading Blue Chips for Chris Sale. Building up the pen, and solidifying the lineup would make more sense. Beltran or Napoli on a 1 year deal, with a team option 2nd year would make sense, until a couple of the kids develop. If Judge was further along, they might not even look for another bat, but he’s going to need time. Frazier needs more time as well. I think by 2018 Torres will be the everyday shortstop.