MLB Trade Rumors is proud to present our eleventh annual Top 50 Free Agents list! The entire list of available free agents can be found here, and you can filter by position, signing team, and qualifying offer status with our new and improved, mobile-friendly free agent tracker here.
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MLBTR writers Steve Adams, Jeff Todd, Jason Martinez, Mark Polishuk, and Connor Byrne joined me in this collaboration, debating free agent contracts and destinations over countless emails and phone calls. We vetted these as much as possible, but with 50 predictions and a volatile free agent and trade marketplace, we know we’ll be off on some. Let us know what you think in the comment section! Also, I’ll be holding a live chat on the site at 1pm central time on Tuesday to discuss this list.
1. Yoenis Cespedes – Dodgers. Five years, $125MM. Cespedes chose to opt out of the remaining two years and $47.5MM remaining on his Mets contract and re-enter free agency, which came as little surprise. Last winter, an acceptable five or six-year offer never materialized for Cespedes, but we think he’ll have greater success the second time around given less competition and another strong year. Despite missing time with a quad injury, the 31-year-old Cespedes hit 31 home runs in 132 games, and also set a career best with a 9.4% walk rate. Though he did fake it in center field for 63 games with the Mets, Cespedes is better off settling in as a left fielder. I’ve long pegged Cespedes for a six-year deal, but I dropped to five after a more detailed look at his potential suitors. I imagine the Mets will again take an opportunistic approach toward Cespedes, leaving the Nationals, Giants, Dodgers, and Astros as other top possibilities.
2. Edwin Encarnacion – Red Sox. Four years, $92MM. Encarnacion, 34 in January, is neck-and-neck with Cespedes as the best hitter in the 2016-17 free agent class after hitting 193 home runs for the Blue Jays from 2012-16, including 42 this year. Encarnacion spent more time at designated hitter than first base in each of the last two seasons, suggesting his market is limited to American League teams. The Blue Jays were unable to work out an extension with him in the spring, but will likely still engage in discussions. The Red Sox, Rangers, Orioles, Astros, and Yankees are other possibilities.
3. Aroldis Chapman – Yankees. Five years, $90MM. Nobody on the planet can throw a baseball faster than Aroldis Chapman, and now the fireballing southpaw closer has reached free agency in advance of his 29th birthday. The lefty’s electric fastball has led to eye-popping numbers since 2012: a 1.84 ERA with a ridiculous 15.7 K/9 in 313 2/3 regular season innings. The Cubs acquired Chapman in July, and in the playoffs, manager Joe Maddon attempted to lean hard on Chapman for multiple-inning appearances. While the results were mixed, Chapman at least showed a willingness to be deployed unconventionally. Unlike fellow free agent relief ace Kenley Jansen, Chapman is not subject to a qualifying offer. We expect both stoppers to blow the lid off previous reliever contracts; Chapman has a shot at doubling the $50MM contract Jonathan Papelbon signed five years ago. Certainly, a five-year deal for any reliever is not prudent, which is why we haven’t seen one in free agency since the Blue Jays signed B.J. Ryan in 2005. However, bidding wars tend to spark irrational contract offers. Any team considering signing Chapman must weigh his alleged actions on October 30th, 2015, which derailed a trade to the Dodgers and led to a 30-game domestic violence suspension to start his 2016 season. The Cubs may look to retain Chapman, and other possible fits include the Giants, Yankees, Dodgers, Nationals, and Rangers.
4. Justin Turner – Dodgers. Five years, $85MM. Non-tendered by the Mets after the 2013 season, Turner blossomed into a star for the Dodgers after they signed him to a minor league deal. Turner, 32 later this month, learned to turn doubles into longballs with the Dodgers, culminating in his 27 home run 2016 campaign. He also posted another strong defensive season at the hot corner. The result was a season worth 5.6 wins above replacement according to FanGraphs, best among free agents. The Dodgers don’t have strong alternatives, but if they let Turner leave, teams like the Giants, Braves, Red Sox, and Angels could come calling.
5. Kenley Jansen – Cubs. Five years, $85MM. In 2009, Dodgers executive De Jon Watson convinced a 6’5″ light-hitting, strong-armed A ball catcher to convert to the pitcher’s mound. Now, armed with a cutter reminiscent of Mariano Rivera, Kenley Jansen is one of the best relievers in baseball. Though he’s not quite as flashy as Chapman, Jansen sports better control and his own dominant strikeout rate. He battled an irregular heartbeat in 2011-12, but was fortunately able to beat that issue with surgery four years ago. Should the Dodgers balk at a historic contract for Jansen, the Cubs, Giants, Yankees, Nationals, and Rangers could serve as alternatives.
6. Dexter Fowler – Cardinals. Four years, $64MM. Fowler is yet another player who is re-entering the free agent market after a disappointing 2015-16 offseason. Instead of the four-year deal we predicted, Fowler returned to the Cubs on a one-year contract in February. He led all free agents with a .393 on-base percentage in 2016, and reinforced his center field defense as at least average. Fowler will again have a qualifying offer attached, but this time we can see at least a dozen reasonable suitors. An openness to an outfield corner would boost Fowler’s market. The Cubs may consider a new contract in the wake of their World Championship, though they didn’t make a big offer to him a year ago and may need to free up their outfield logjam. The Cardinals, Nationals, Blue Jays, Rangers, White Sox, Indians, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Giants, and Mariners could have interest in Fowler.
7. Jeremy Hellickson – Rangers. Four years, $60MM. When the Phillies acquired Hellickson from the Diamondbacks a year ago as mostly a salary dump, few would have predicted he’d be lined up for the largest contract of any free agent starter now. Hellickson, 30 in April, anchored the Phillies’ rotation with a 3.71 ERA in 189 innings in 2016. Skills-wise, Hellickson remains prone to the longball and didn’t change much from 2015. In terms of pitchers on this market who can take the ball every fifth day, Hellickson may be the best of a bad crop, and his contract should be surprisingly strong even if Ian Kennedy’s five-year, $70MM deal is out of reach. Assuming Hellickson turns down a qualifying offer from the Phillies and doesn’t reach a multiyear agreement to return, he could find interest from the Angels, Braves, Rangers, Astros, Marlins, Orioles, and several other teams. It would help to have a protected first-round pick in 2017, as the Braves and Angels do.
8. Mark Trumbo – Orioles. Four years, $60MM. The Mariners traded Trumbo to the Orioles last December as a salary dump, and he rewarded his new club by winning the home run crown with 47 bombs. Trumbo, 31 in January, has shown big power in the past with 95 home runs from 2011-13 for the Angels. While Trumbo’s power clearly makes him an asset on offense, he’s a one-dimensional player. He doesn’t get on base enough, and he’s a significant detriment in the field. This year he spent the most time in right field, but he’s also a candidate for left field, first base, and of course, designated hitter. While we’ve predicted four years here, Trumbo was saddled with a qualifying offer, it won’t be a surprise if he has to settle for a lesser contract later in the offseason. The MLBTR team has batted around potential fits for him, and we feel the best candidates are the Orioles, Red Sox, Rangers, A’s, Giants, and Rockies.
9. Ian Desmond – Phillies. Four years, $60MM. Despite an off year for the Nationals’ shortstop, and a qualifying offer, MLBTR predicted Desmond would land a five-year, $80MM contract in free agency after the 2015 season. Instead, Desmond concluded a disastrous offseason by signing a one-year, $8MM deal in February to serve as the Rangers’ left fielder. Desmond handled the position change well, ultimately spending more than 80% of his time as a center fielder and the rest in left. He also resumed his place as an above average hitter, managing a .285/.335/.446 line on the season. Notably, he tailed off as the season wore on, hitting .244/.292/.300 over his final 233 plate appearances. Still, Desmond re-enters the market as a quality center fielder, rather than a defensively-challenged shortstop. He can probably handle all three outfield positions, and possibly third base as well. Desmond’s stock has clearly risen in the last year, though he will again bear the burden of a qualifying offer. The Rangers may attempt to re-sign him, but the Orioles, Astros, Angels, Mariners, White Sox, Giants, Cardinals, Indians, Dodgers, Phillies, Braves, and even Nationals could be suitors.
10. Ivan Nova – Angels. Four years, $52MM. After Nova was pulled from a July 7th start for the Yankees in Cleveland, his ERA sat at 5.17. The year prior, he’d returned from Tommy John surgery to post a 5.07 ERA. Nova was traded to the Pirates with little fanfare at the deadline, but the righty put up a stellar 3.06 ERA in 11 starts. Nova allowed just three walks in 64 2/3 innings. The stint with Pittsburgh served as a reminder that Nova did have success with the Yankees in 2011 and ’13. Last winter, J.A. Happ was able to spin a successful Pirates stint into a three-year, $36MM deal with the Blue Jays, covering his age 33-35 seasons. Nova doesn’t turn 30 until January, and unlike Jeremy Hellickson, he won’t cost a draft pick to sign. The weak market for starting pitching should benefit him greatly, and his list of suitors should resemble that of Hellickson. While we’re predicting four years for Nova, he’s never reached 180 innings in a season, and that will cause some teams to stop at a three-year term.
11. Mark Melancon – Giants. Four years, $52MM. Melancon, 32 in March, is the third top-shelf reliever available in free agency this winter. He doesn’t offer the huge strikeout ability of Chapman or Jansen, but no one can match Melancon’s 1.80 ERA over 290 innings from 2013-16. He’s served as a lockdown closer for three-plus years, and should get plenty of play from teams that prefer not to operate in the Chapman/Jansen financial stratosphere. The Nationals acquired Melancon from the Pirates in July and will attempt to lock him up. If they fail, the Giants, Dodgers, Cubs, and Yankees could be among the top suitors. We can picture Melancon being the first of the Big Three closers to sign, allowing him to briefly hold the record for the largest contract ever signed by a reliever.
12. Jose Bautista – Blue Jays. Three years, $51MM. In February, massive numbers were floated regarding Bautista’s asking price for an extension with the Blue Jays. Regardless of the slugger’s exact demand at that time, the 36-year-old now faces an uphill battle in getting a fourth year on his next contract. Bautista endured DL stints for toe and knee injuries, playing in only 116 games this year. His power numbers declined, his right field defense remained an issue, and he comes with a qualifying offer. Still, Bautista served as the face of the Blue Jays in crushing 227 home runs from 2010-15. If the Jays don’t retain him, Bautista may be limited to AL teams like the Red Sox, Orioles, or White Sox. While we’ve predicted three years, a one-year deal could make sense for Bautista, as could an opt-out clause in a multiyear pact.
13. Wilson Ramos – Astros. Four years, $50MM. Ramos, a 29-year-old catcher, was in the midst of a breakout season when he tore his ACL and meniscus in late September. Ramos’ injury has a seven-month rehab timeline, so it seems he’ll miss the first six weeks of the 2017 season even in the best case scenario. Additionally, Ramos has questioned whether he can play for a National League team in 2017, given the lack of a designated hitter position. We’re assuming Ramos still takes the largest contract possible, but we can’t rule out a one-year deal either. He should still have a strong market, perhaps including the Angels, Astros, Twins, White Sox, Braves, and Orioles. The Nationals could not risk giving Ramos a qualifying offer, so he hits the market free of that issue.
14. Rich Hill – Yankees. Three years, $50MM. Hill’s story is incredible. After experiencing success with the Cubs as a late-blooming starting pitcher in 2006-07, the lefty with the big curveball endured shoulder and Tommy John surgery in 2009 and ’11, respectively. Hill then bounced around in many different bullpens in the Majors and and minors, to the point where he joined the independent league Long Island Ducks in 2015. A successful stint with the Red Sox in September last year, aided by some changes to his approach, led to a one-year, $6MM deal with the A’s. Hill proved he was no fluke, and owns a stellar 2.13 in his last 152 1/3 innings for the Red Sox, A’s, and Dodgers (including the postseason). Endurance is a huge question mark, however. Hill turns 37 in March, and in 2016 missed significant time with a groin strain and blisters on his throwing hand. When he’s able to take the mound, Hill has become dynamic enough to serve as Clayton Kershaw’s wingman. But how many innings he can provide is anyone’s guess. I believe his elite performance will still spark a bidding war that will lead to a three-year contract from teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, Angels, Astros, Marlins, Red Sox, or Rangers.
15. Jason Hammel – Braves. Three years, $42MM. Hammel, 34, was the surprise beneficiary of the Cubs’ decision to decline his $12MM club option for 2017. According to a statement from Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein, the parties had a verbal agreement that the team would not exercise his option and then trade him, and the World Champs are seeking a younger, controllable fifth starter. Hammel has been a steady presence for the Cubs over the last two seasons, posting a 3.79 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, and 1.28 HR/9 in 61 starts. He’s a flyball pitcher, and his strikeout and walk rates did move a bit in the wrong direction this year, but Hammel is still easily one of the best free agent starting pitchers. Though Hammel experienced elbow tightness in September, Epstein mentioned in his statement that the righty is healthy. Unlike Hellickson, Hammel did not receive a qualifying offer, so the team that signs him will not have to surrender a draft pick. Possible suitors include the Braves, Astros, Angels, Dodgers, Marlins, Phillies, Yankees, Mariners, and Rangers.
16. Matt Wieters – Braves. Three years, $39MM. Wieters returned from Tommy John surgery in 2015. After a limited season for the Orioles that year, he was compelled to accept the club’s $15.8MM qualifying offer in an attempt to rebuild value. While Wieters re-established his health by starting 111 games at catcher, the switch-hitting former first-round pick had another mediocre year with the bat despite ranking eighth among full-time catchers with 17 home runs. Still, he doesn’t turn 31 until May, and will likely be seeking a four-year contract. The Orioles chose not to stick Wieters with a qualifying offer this time around, but could still have interest in a new deal. If the O’s don’t retain their longtime catcher, the Braves, White Sox, Rockies, Astros, Angels, Twins and Nationals are possible fits.
17. Josh Reddick – Giants. Three years, $36MM. Reddick, 30 in February, had his free agent stock take a tumble after the A’s traded him to the Dodgers this summer. The right fielder ended up hitting .281/.345/.405 in 439 plate appearances overall, missing time with a fractured thumb. While his power numbers should bounce back, Reddick has shown an inability to hit left-handed pitching. Plus, his defense has fallen from Gold Glove caliber to below average in right field. He should still generate solid interest, potentially from the Giants, Blue Jays, Orioles, Indians, Phillies, White Sox, Astros, and Mariners. A four-year deal remains possible.
18. Neil Walker – Mets. Three years, $36MM. After an offseason trade from the Pirates to the Mets, Walker was enjoying his finest season until he had to undergo season-ending back surgery in September. The second baseman faces a three-month rehab process, but the injury could prevent him from receiving four-year offers. Plus, the Mets gave Walker a qualifying offer, which will limit interest from certain teams. A return to the Mets remains possible, or the Angels, Dodgers, and Athletics could take a look.
19. Carlos Gomez – Rangers. Three years, $36MM. Gomez, 31 in December, was a superstar center fielder for the Brewers in 2013-14. After a July 2015 trade to the Mets fell through, Gomez was dealt to the Astros. He was brutal for Houston, hitting .221/.277/.342 in 486 plate appearances while missing time with oblique, rib, and hamstring injuries. After being released by the Astros in August, Gomez joined the Rangers and experienced a renaissance, hitting .284/.362/.543 with eight home runs in 130 plate appearances. Gomez will likely attempt to land a decent-sized multiyear deal, but it’s possible he could settle for a one-year contract to rebuild value. He could also try for the best of both worlds, signing a multiyear contract with an opt-out clause. The long list of potential suitors could include the Rangers, A’s, Blue Jays, White Sox, Nationals, Mariners, Orioles, Indians, Dodgers, Phillies, Giants, and Cardinals.
20. Michael Saunders – Orioles. Three years, $33MM. Saunders, 30 in November, was traded from the Mariners to the Blue Jays for J.A. Happ in December 2014. A seemingly minor knee surgery became problematic, causing him to miss most of the 2015 season. Saunders burst out of the gate this year, making the All-Star team and hitting .281/.366/.536 with 19 home runs in 396 plate appearances through July. The wheels came off in the season’s final two months, in which he hit just .186/.267/.338. Saunders also registered subpar defense at the outfield corners. Saunders’ poor finish is likely what stopped the Jays from making a qualifying offer, so at least he won’t cost a draft pick to sign. The Giants, Blue Jays, Orioles, Indians, Phillies, White Sox, Astros, Dodgers, and Athletics are potential suitors.
21. Mike Napoli – Indians. Two years, $28MM. Napoli, 35, signed a one-year deal with the Indians in January. He showed his best power in years, hitting 34 home runs in 645 plate appearances. He also inspired an Indians fan to create the “Party at Napoli’s” slogan, with subsequent t-shirt proceeds going to help sick childen. There are a few concerns about his game to consider. Napoli’s first base defense graded below average in 2016, after years of above average marks. Plus, his baserunning is a detriment. On the plus side, he hits the market unencumbered by a qualifying offer. If the Indians don’t re-sign him, the Orioles, Red Sox, White Sox, Rockies, Astros, Yankees, Mariners, Rangers, and Blue Jays could be interested.
22. Kendrys Morales – Blue Jays. Two years, $26MM. Morales spent the last two years as a quality designated hitter for the Royals. This season, he didn’t turn it on until June, after which he hit .296/.357/.531 in 423 plate appearances. At age 33, a three-year deal might be hard to come by, and Morales’ market is limited to AL teams with DH openings. Fortunately for Morales, he was not given a qualifying offer from the Royals. Possible fits include the Orioles, Red Sox, Blue Jays, White Sox, and Rangers.
23. Greg Holland – Nationals. Two years, $18MM. Holland, 31 this month, was a dominant closer for the Royals before undergoing Tommy John surgery in October 2015. Holland’s contract will likely depend on whether he was able to demonstrate his health to teams in his November 7th showcase. If Holland is all the way back, interest will be strong. A two-year deal is possible, especially if Holland gets an opt-out after the first year. The Royals, Cubs, Giants, Yankees, Red Sox, Rockies, Marlins, Phillies, Mariners, Dodgers, Rangers, Nationals, and Diamondbacks could be interested.
Special note: In Chapman, Jansen, Melancon, and Holland, there are at most four quality closers available in free agency this winter. With the Cubs, Dodgers, Nationals, Yankees, and Giants all likely seeking closers, at least one of these clubs is not going to get any of these four pitchers. Keep in mind, also, that quality players are acquired via trade every winter.
24. Travis Wood – Marlins. Three years, $21MM. Wood, 30 in February, has done a credible job in relief for the Cubs for the last two years. Though the lefty’s peripheral stats aren’t great, in a thin market some teams will look at him as a candidate to return to the rotation. Wood broke into the Majors as a starter for the Reds, and even made the All-Star team during a 200-inning season for the 2013 Cubs. Wood’s youth and track record of durability could result in a three-year deal. The Braves, White Sox, Astros, Royals, Angels, Dodgers, Marlins, Brewers, Yankees, Phillies, Athletics, Padres, Mariners, and Rangers could be possibilities.
25. Neftali Feliz – Rockies. Three years, $18MM. After a terrible 2015 season, the Tigers chose not to tender Feliz a contract. The 28-year-old made good on a one-year, $3.9MM deal with the Pirates, striking out 61 batters in 53 2/3 innings while displaying a 96 mile per hour fastball. Feliz had Tommy John surgery in August 2012, and ended his 2016 season with a minor arm injury. Assuming the recent injury is not a concern, Feliz ranks as the top setup man on the free agent market. The Diamondbacks, Red Sox, Cubs, Reds, Rockies, Dodgers, Marlins, Twins, Yankees, Phillies, Giants, and Nationals are potential suitors.
26. Brett Cecil – Mariners. Three years, $18MM. After Chapman, Cecil may be the top left-handed reliever on the market. The 30-year-old was limited this year by a triceps strain, after which he punched out 36 hitters and walked five in 26 1/3 frames. Overall, his numbers were inflated by a 20% home run per flyball rate and .344 batting average on balls in play, both of which should come down. Cecil is tough on lefties and has shown the ability to retire right-handed hitters in the past. Tony Sipp’s contract could be a model, with the Mariners, Mets, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Cubs, White Sox, and Marlins as potential suitors if the Blue Jays don’t bring him back.
27. Brad Ziegler – Red Sox. Two years, $16MM. Ziegler, a 37-year-old side-arming right-handed reliever, boasts a 2.05 ERA over 136 innings from 2015-16 for the Diamondbacks and Red Sox. Among relievers, only Mark Melancon, Andrew Miller, and Zach Britton have been better. Though not known for punchouts, Ziegler whiffed more than a batter per inning after being traded to Boston. But his real calling card is his groundball rate, which is second only to Britton over the last two seasons. Opposite-handed hitters can be an issue for sidearmers, but Ziegler hasn’t experienced recent problems against lefty batters until 2016, when they hit .267/.380/.343 against him. Nonetheless, he looks like one of the top setup arms on the market, and can likely be had on a two-year deal given his age. A return to the Red Sox or D’Backs could fit, but the Reds, Rockies, Dodgers, Marlins, Yankees, Giants, Mariners, Rangers, and Nationals are other possibilities.
28. Andrew Cashner – Pirates. One year, $8MM. Cashner, 30, hasn’t delivered on the hype since being traded for Anthony Rizzo in 2012. Even with a decline, Cashner is the hardest-throwing free agent starter (93.5 miles per hour on his fastball), but he’s never consistently missed bats. Plus, his groundball rate has steadily declined since his career-best 2013 season. Cashner had flashes of success in his Padres career, but was awful after a July 2016 trade to the Marlins. Plus, he’s only made 30 starts in a season once. Cashner remains somewhat interesting, but is definitely a project. The Rangers, Braves, Phillies, or Pirates could make sense, and the Orioles had interest at the trade deadline.
29. Jason Castro – White Sox. Two years, $15MM. Castro, a 29-year-old catcher, hasn’t hit much for the Astros since his 2013 All-Star season. As a left-handed batter, Castro has demonstrated particular issues against southpaws. Still, the former first-rounder is one of the game’s better pitch framers and should still serve as a starting catcher somewhere. A three-year deal is possible. The Astros will look to retain him, otherwise the Nationals, White Sox, Braves, Orioles, Angels, Rockies, Rays, and Twins could be interested.
30. Brandon Moss – Nationals. Two years, $14MM. Moss, 33, hit .225/.300/.484 with 28 home runs on the season for the Cardinals. His overall line was dragged down by a brutal September, and he continued to demonstrate an inability to hit left-handed pitching. Unlike some of the other free agents with this skill set, Moss may be passable enough in the field to be considered by National League teams. The Nationals, Rockies, Angels, Rays, Athletics, Orioles, White Sox, and Blue Jays could be possibilities.
31. Luis Valbuena – Brewers. Two years, $14MM. Valbuena, 31 later this month, has long required a platoon but showed signs of life against lefties in a small sample this year with the Astros. Overall, the third baseman managed a solid .260/.357/.459 line in 342 plate appearances before hamstring surgery ended his season. Valbuena also has recent career experience at second and first base. The Astros may move on, but teams like the Brewers, Cardinals, Angels, Red Sox, and Mets could be interested.
32. Joe Blanton – Marlins. Two years, $14MM. Blanton, 36 in December, joined the Dodgers on a one-year deal and proved his 2015 resurgence was no fluke, posting a strong 2.48 ERA in 80 innings as the team’s setup man. While he doesn’t have big velocity, Blanton is able to get outs with a starter’s arsenal. Aside from his age, one potential concern is his low 32.5% groundball rate. Still, interest should be strong, with the Giants, Red Sox, Rockies, Nationals, Diamondbacks, Reds, Padres, Twins, and Marlins among the possible matches if the Dodgers don’t re-sign him.
33. Carlos Beltran – White Sox. One year, $14MM. Beltran, 40 in April, raked for 99 games with the Yankees this year but dropped off a bit after a deadline deal to the Rangers. Though he played over 500 innings in right field, Beltran is likely limited to an American League team. The veteran switch-hitter is putting the finishing touches on an illustrious career, and ranks fourth among active players with 421 career home runs. The Rangers could bring him back, or the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Indians, Astros, Royals, Orioles, or White Sox could have interest. A two-year deal is possible, if Beltran wants to commit to it.
34. Sergio Romo – Dodgers. Two years, $14MM. Romo, 34 in March, suffered a flexor strain in April and missed three months. After his return, he found his way back to the Giants’ closer role in late September. Romo has been a Giants mainstay since they drafted him in 2005, posting excellent strikeout to walk ratios every year since his 2008 debut. He can struggle with the longball, and at 85.8 miles per hour on average, he throws one of the slowest fastballs among all relievers. There still could be enough interest for a two-year deal, with probably a dozen potential suitors.
35. Sean Rodriguez – Padres. Two years, $12MM. Rodriguez, 32 in April, posted a surprising .270/.349/.510 line in 342 plate appearances for the Pirates this year. He showed off his versatility by logging innings at every position other than catcher. Such a strong utility season will attract plenty of interest, and Rodriguez could even land a three-year deal. The Angels, Dodgers, A’s, Giants, Braves, Padres, and Blue Jays could be potential matches.
36. Santiago Casilla – Reds. Two years, $12MM. Casilla, 36, is another reliever who seems like he’s been on the Giants forever. Casilla spent most of the last two years as their closer, putting up solid peripherals aside from issues allowing home runs. It might be time for a change of scenery, and a two-year deal is possible. Certain non-contending teams, like the Reds and Twins, may be able to offer higher-leverage innings to relievers like this.
37. Jon Jay – Indians. Two years, $12MM. Jay, 32 in March, was hitting .296/.345/.407 for the Padres until he broke his forearm in June. He may be able to break out of the fourth outfielder mold and find a starting job somewhere, in any of the outfield spots. Jay could be of interest to the Orioles, White Sox, Indians, Astros, Athletics, Phillies, Giants, Mariners, or Blue Jays.
38. Fernando Salas – Twins. Two years, $12MM. Salas, 31, was mediocre for the Angels this year but excellent after a trade to the Mets. Salas struck out 19 batters against zero walks in 17 1/3 innings for New York. He’s one of several right-handed, homer-prone relievers who will be seeking multiyear deals this winter.
39. Boone Logan – White Sox. Two years, $12MM. Logan, 32, signed a three-year, $16.5MM deal with the Rockies after the 2013 season. His first two seasons went poorly, but the lefty finally found success this year. Part of that was a low BABIP, and Logan does have issues with right-handed batters. Still, decent lefty relievers are often at a premium in free agency. The White Sox, Cubs, Blue Jays, Brewers, and Mariners are a few potential options.
40. Matt Holliday – Rangers. One year, $10MM. Holliday, 37 in January, traded walks for power this year, to his detriment. After providing so much value for the Cardinals since joining the organization in 2009, Holliday’s defense and health issues may necessitate a move to the American League for the twilight of his excellent career. Teams like the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rangers, Orioles, White Sox, or Royals could make sense.
41. Bartolo Colon – Mets. One year, $10MM. Colon, 43, has proven surprisingly durable in making 125 starts from 2013-16. He made the All-Star team for the Mets this year, despite little change in his pitch-to-contact, low walk skillset. The big righty could continue providing stability for the Mets, or find plenty of interest on the open market.
42. Steve Pearce – Yankees. Two years, $10MM. Pearce, 34 in April, continued his lefty-mashing ways in 2016 for the Rays and Orioles, but also had success against righties. He spent most of his time at first base, second base, and designated hitter this year. His bat remains interesting, and perhaps he can find the two-year deal that eluded him last winter. One mitigating factor is that Pearce had season-ending surgery to repair a flexor mass in his right forearm, which has a four to six month recovery time.
43. Matt Joyce – Athletics. Two years, $10MM. After a terrible 2015 campaign for the Angels, Joyce joined the Pirates on a minor league deal in February. He wound up starting 48 games in Pittsburgh, mainly as a corner outfielder, and also contributed off the bench. Joyce drew a walk in more than 20% of his plate appearances, contributing to a valuable .242/.403/.463 line. He could be a useful addition for the Orioles, Athletics, Blue Jays, Astros, Phillies, and several others.
44. Nick Hundley – Angels. Two years, $10MM. Hundley, 33, hit .282/.330/.455 in 706 plate appearances over his two years with the Rockies, leading all catchers in slugging percentage during that time. This year, at least, he was actually a better hitter on the road. He started 77 games at catcher for Colorado this year, a number that would have been higher had he not missed nearly a month with an oblique injury. Hundley has been one of the game’s worst pitch framers during his time with the Rockies, but I think he still fits somewhere as a second division starting catcher. He could generate interest from the Nationals, Braves, Orioles, Angels, Astros, Rays, and Twins if the Rockies move on.
45. Eric Thames – Rays. Two years, $10MM. Thames, 30 this month, logged 684 lackluster Major League plate appearances for the Blue Jays and Mariners at age 24-25, back in 2011-12. He headed to Korea in 2014 and became a star, crushing 124 home runs in three seasons there. While offense is greatly inflated in Korea, it’s possible Thames could return to MLB as a left fielder/first baseman/DH and provide a cheap source of power from the left side. Assuming Thames doesn’t return to Korea or head to Japan, the Orioles, Rays, Phillies, A’s, Giants, Rockies, Mariners, and Blue Jays could be possibilities.
46. Charlie Morton – Royals. One year, $8MM. Morton, 33 this month, is an under-the-radar rotation candidate who will sign a one or two-year deal. The Pirates traded Morton to the Phillies in December 2015, but he suffered a season-ending hamstring injury in late April. Assuming the medicals check out, the groundballing righty should retain the skills for a sub-4.00 ERA in 2017. The Phillies could bring him back, or the Royals, Braves, Reds, Rockies, Astros, Angels, Marlins, Padres, Mariners, Rangers, and Athletics could be matches.
47. Edinson Volquez – Phillies. One year, $8MM. Volquez, 33, had the magic wear off in his second year with the Royals. Though he pitched slightly better than his 5.37 ERA indicates, Volquez has a thin margin for error since he walks nearly 9% of batters faced. He’ll be enlisted to soak up innings at the back end of someone’s rotation.
48. R.A. Dickey – Braves. One year, $8MM. Dickey, a 42-year-old knuckleballer, has had difficulty keeping the ball in the yard in his four years with Toronto. He’s not able to miss many bats, and his walk rate jumped upward this year. Dickey can still eat innings, assuming he finds a situation to his liking and wants to continue pitching. A note on the Braves: we’re envisioning a scenario where they sign a free agent to a short-term contract, and add a second starting pitcher via trade.
49. Chase Utley – Angels. One year, $8MM. Utley, 38 in December, generated quiet value as a league average second baseman for the Dodgers in 2016. His struggles against left-handed pitching continued, so he may need to accept a platoon role next year. If the Dodgers move on, the Angels or Mets could make sense.
50. Derek Holland – Padres. One year, $6MM. Unable to find a taker in a trade, the Rangers chose a $1.5MM buyout over Holland’s $11.5MM club option for 2017. Holland, a 30-year-old southpaw, had been in the Rangers’ organization since being drafted in the 25th round in 2006. He overcame a 2010 rotator cuff injury and had a successful run from 2011-13, posting a 3.98 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and 1.14 HR/9 over 586 1/3 innings. Holland had microfracture knee surgery in January 2014. missing most of that season. A left shoulder strain cost him most of the 2015 season, and then shoulder inflammation cost him two months this year. He finished the season in the Rangers’ bullpen, and did not make the team’s division series roster. With a clean bill of health, Holland would generate solid interest on a one-year deal.
Honorable mentions: Kwang Hyun Kim, Hyeon-jong Yang, Jae-gyun Hwang, Daniel Hudson, Junichi Tazawa, Mike Dunn, Daniel Descalso, Colby Lewis, Koji Uehara, Mitch Moreland, Jhoulys Chacin, Rajai Davis, Pedro Alvarez, Angel Pagan, Adam Lind, Colby Rasmus, Drew Storen, Kurt Suzuki, Brett Anderson, Jerry Blevins
Is there going to be another contest this year?
I’m hoping to. We had to revamp it for various reasons, and it’s not done yet. Hopefully we can get something up this month, but I’m not sure yet.
I really hope you guys are able to get the contest going… It’s quite popular and talked about on other sport boards, great exposure for your site IMO
Would signing Fowler improve the Cards defense? I thought his numbers were actually worse than Grichuks numbers defensively
Grichuk in left and Fowler in CF greatly improves the OF defense. I’m not sure Mozeliak is willing to lose a 1st round pick for Fowler, though.
I said the redsox will sign Kendrys Morales will not signing Edwin Encarnacion too much $ and years! Trade for a pitcher and add a setupp men like Holland
By UZR, Grichuk rated out as a slightly below average CF, but above average LF. Fowler graded out as an average CF. The addition would slightly improve the Card’s CF defense and vastly improve their LF defense over last season with Grichuk there full time instead of Holliday.
Fowler will not be a Cardinal. They won’t risk losing their draft pick
And that’s one team he wouldn’t go to out of principal. Lol.
Just like Heyward did last year. I’m glad they overpaid for that performance
Heywards disastrous 2016 was not talked about nearly as much as it should have been. Sure his UZR was #6 in all of baseball, but he had a 72 wRC+. How bad actually is that? With a minimum of 450PA that ranks last (69 of 69) in all of baseball for Outfielders and 8th to last (168 of 175) for ALL players. At 8 years $184 million that is an embarrassment.
Heyward is a World Champion.
defense counts, right? A run saved is as valuable as a run created at the plate, correct?
With his skill set he should bounce back. It’s likely he was pressing … trying to live up to that contract-somewhat common occurrence.
Watching slo-motion replays of Heyward’s swing in the playoffs and WS I could not believe how bad it was for a major leaguer. He’s casting the barrel well outside his hands creating such a long swing it’s no wonder he can’t hit anymore. Cubs hitting coach John Mallee is one of the best in the business so I can only guess that Heyward is stubborn or just not listening to Mallee.
Mallee needs to by Heyward a Zepp for Christmas so Heyward can see that cruddy swing on his own. (Mallee endorses the Zepp and provides instructional videos and practice plans for Zepp).
So was stephen drew after 2013, doesn’t change the fact he was still awful.
davidcoonce74: His elite defense doesn’t make up for his atrocious offense. There was a reason he was benched in the playoffs.
Heyward needs to watch tape of his rookie season. That’s what he needs to go back to.
I imagine they’ll revamp his swing in the offseason, or at least change something. It’s one year of a seven-year contract. Let’s wait until we’re a few years in before calling his contract a bust. The Cubs achieved what they set out to achieve, so I’d say it was a success regardless or whether or not Heyward performed up to expectations. I can pretty much guarantee you that nobody on the Cubs is kicking themselves right now.
Especially to the Cubs
I agree. They also won’t sign a player whose entire game is based upon speed and he is over 30.
Who do you think they’ll get for CF?
Knowing the Cards, probably a trade for a CF. They value draft picks way too much to give up one.
Who do you think they’ll trade for?
Juan Lagares?
The Post-Dispatch referenced AJ Pollock as a possibility and also Kiermaier
That sounds expensive…
JBJ?
Sounds like two unavailable dudes, plus Juan Lagares…
Agreed
Guessing any deal for Pollock would start with Reyes and go from there.
That wont happen either… Reyes is about as untouchable as the come as a prospect right now… Weaver and some other players might be a good starting point…
Blackmon is a likely target with a package centered on Weaver, Adams… Dont see Mo overpaying by much… Not his mo… lol
Where do they get this stuff? Do they even watch how Mo operates? Mo wont surrender a draft pick for Fowler.. Fowler isnt enough of a difference maker for that.
I don’t see the Angels signing any of those players. They prefer in house options over any of these FA, Nova doesn’t make the team better than their cheap in house options and Utley is not a fit for this team at all
Nova would be a perfect for them in the rotation, but they need to go after a power arm for the bullpen
Why sign Nova when you could get a durable innings eater like Bartolo for much less? 1/3 season of solid pitching doesn’t erase years of mediocrity. Nothing against Nova but he’s gonna get paid more than he’s worth and hopefully LAA will steer clear.
Sign Neil Walker, a BP arm like Koji Logan or Tazawa, and snatch up rotational depth like Bartolo or Brett Anderson. Also bid big on Lourdes Gourriel Jr.
Why sign Nova? Because it sounds like something the Angels would do.
Lmao angels in-house options?? That’s a joke.
Shoemaker, Richards, Skaggs, Nolasco and Meyer. Angels aren’t going to be a winning team next year, no reason to blow 50 mm on a number 5 starter. Vincente Campos has a chance to make the team along with Nate Smith. Tropeano and Heaney will be back in ’18
I agree.. as much as it’s gonna suck, the Angels need to bite bullet this year and just wait for 2018. no more contracts over 30 mm unless we’re ready to fully contend
Yep the Richards/Shoey/Skaggs/Nolasco should inhabit the first 4 slots in the rotation. A mixture of Meyer, Smith, Campos and Troy Scribner will all contribute in some capacity be it 5th starter or spot starts here and there.
I think we need to get some rotational depth but I’d like something more savy than $50m to Nova. Bartolo/Brett Anderson or trades (Gio Gonzalez) would be my preferred route.
I think they should trade Trout. Dear god somebody please tell me what the Red Sox need to give up to get him.
I agree with most of this list. I do have A Few questions though. Why is Colby Rasmus left off the list when guys like Matt Joyce and Eric Thames are there ahead of him? No offense to Joyce and Thames, but Rasmus has hit for power (albeit not much else) and played above average defense in the outfield. His market is probably similar to Matt Joyce and Eric Thames, but IMO Rasmus is the best of those three. Also interested in the Cespedes to the Dodgers fit. The Dodgers could definitely afford to get both Cespedes and Turner, and On paper, it seems like a good fit, but I don’t see him as a great fit for the Dodgers personality
I’m not sure, but perhaps the reason that Colby Rasmus wasn’t included on the list was that he just underwent two surgeries on the same day not long ago. From my limited understanding one was to remove a bone spur on his hip and the other was to repair a core muscle. I’m guessing that question marks related to those surgeries would have knocked off some potential value from him, especially after an underwhelming season.
To me however Rasmus might be a candidate to return to the blue jays on some relatively low contract.
Both Choi Hyoung-woo and Hwang Jae-gyun have acquired foreign FA options, and will no longer be subjected to posting. Hwang already left South Korea last month to head for the US, while Choi has also expressed interest playing in MLB. In NPB, pitcher Hideaki Wakui is also interested playing in the big leagues… and is seeking a one-year deal.
How Uehare not in the top 50 free agents?
You’re obviously not a Sox fan. He didn’t suck, but he’s just not that good anymore.
I’m a big sox fan and I think he’s better dans Charlie Morton… when he came back from his injury, he was pretty good
Wieters to the Braves has been the narrative since Bethancourt was falling out…maybe it’ll finally happen. I highly doubt they go after Hammel, but I could se RA Dickey. A veteran presence for a young rotation. That will be good for those young pitchers in Spring Training looking to make the rotation.
#1 makes zero sense. Why would the Dodgers want TWO Yasiel Puigs? Make no mistake – I really like both players, and would be happy to have either one on my team (SF). But L.A. already has one and can’t seem to figure out how to deal with him. Doubling up with a very similar guy doesn’t seem like something they’d do.
Talent wins out! Ces can hit. They can easily move Puig. I don’t see it, but who knows.
Simple. They’ll trade Puig. A Puig/Braun deal was close last year but they couldn’t agree on which prospects to include. Puig is a bit of a headcase but he still has immense talent. I think it’s unlikely that Puig is a Dodger next year.
It’s predicated on a trade of Puig. After much debate, we didn’t find any team we loved for Cespedes. The Nats are the stock pick, we had that for a while.
Then please send him back to my Mets
How can the top free agent be the least desirable?
I remember going through something similar with Prince Fielder. Most teams would like to have Cespedes, but they also have to have a need for an OF and willingness to spend a lot of money to fill it.
If the Puig/Braun trade talks are revisited this offseason as has been speculated then there would be no reason for the Dodgers to sign Cespedes. Braun would be the perfect fit in LF for the Dodgers and it would also be a homecoming of sorts for the ‘Hebrew Hammer” who is a native of southern California. Braun also has trade veto rights and the Dodgers are at the top of his list.
Teams NOT on Braun’s Block list: Angels, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Giants, Marlins and Padres……but can he continue to play RF in Dodger Stadium (bigger than Miller Park)
If the Dodgers trade Puig for Braun, they increase payroll by about $12 million in 2017……for a player that’s 7 years older. Braun is signed through 2021 and Puig goes to Arb in 2019. I know they have money to burn, but really?
Cespedes is going to get something north of $25 mil/yr…..probably for 5 years, but having both would certainly fortify their lineup. With Cespedes/Pederson/Braun in the OF, they’d probably need to score a bunch of runs, and they would.
Ethier has 2 more years at $17 -18 mil/yr…..is he tradable at this point? Not sure he is, unless they eat a ton of salary. Kendrick is not the answer….he needs to go back to 2B/utility IF. Kiki? Great 4th OF. Micah is the future 2B.
I think that signing Cespedes just complicates everything…….Nice Bat to have though.
I don’t think Ethier’s 2018 option is going to vest, so they really only owe him for 2017. They also shed Crawford’s $21MM+ after 2017 as well.
A’s should be on the list for every CF or RF option. They have almost no salary commitments on the books, have a good, inexpensive group of young pitchers, and a solid INF with good upgrades knocking at the door. The gaping hole is in CF and RF. Clearly they will be in talks in the trade market, but FA is certainly a legit option for one or even both of those spots.
A’s are also under investigation by MLB for not spending their revenue sharing allowance the last couple years, I really get the feeling it’s time for them to start throwing around $80+M for a player, they have big holes they could fill with the best available player, it’s more feasible now than ever before.
A’s could be interesting. Little hard to see them break tradition and sign Fowler or Desmond, but it’s not that much money by other teams’ standards. We had them for Gomez for a while.
I can see them signing Travis Wood to a nice contract.. I also think Ryan Howard will be an A’s. What I’m really hoping for is a reunion with Cespedes.
I wouldn’t be too surprised if they use that protected pick to go after a QO free agent.
I think the A’s will surprise a lot of us for the reason OaklandKAM has given. Not a lot of teams that Oakland couldn’t outbid. Some of these guys still wouldn’t pick Oakland. Cespedes, Fowler, Reddick, Bautista, even Edwin. None would hurt the future.
Except Bautista and maybe Edwin. The A’s can’t have 15 million in useless money tied up in the last year or two of their deals.
Agreed.
But looking at Oakland’s cash flow has me thinking they could get away with any contract they wished. Throw an offer at some of these players that got a QO. A 4 year deal probably traded after 2nd year in Oakland’s usual case..
By 2019 their payroll is virtually zero. They could easily lock up any player they wanted right now. Players would need to agree to sign there, and obviously there are more holes than one big name would fix. Highly unlikely.
More likely to see them spend the free money trying to buy out some arbitration years from Gray/Davis. And a push on Reddick. Fill holes rather than do something big and stupid.
Just a rambling baseball obsessive, Oakland and Philly have the flexibility to get my imagination running wild this off season.
Why do u have atlanta signing 2 old guys I do t agree with that I do like weiters though
Young guys would require a longer contract and the Braves won’t go over 3 years
Good read. It will interesting to see how many actually come true. I’m guessing 25% would be a pretty good score.
The article predicts the Cubs will sign closer Kenley Jansen despite the stigma of a qualifying offer that will cost the club yet another first round, albeit late, draft pick. Aroldis Chapman, of course, would not cost any MLB team a draft pick since he was not eligible for a QO after being acquired by the Cubs during the season. Despite this, I’m good with the Cubs targeting Jansen over Chapman to be their next closer.
It’s somewhat surprising to see the article predicting three “older” type veterans (C Jason Castro, DH/OF Carlos Beltran, LHRP Boone Logan) being signed by the White Sox, especially since many of their writers have been speculating the club might undergo a rebuild this offseason. It’s no surprise that they have the White Sox only pursuing free agents who don’t have an attached QO. Unlike recent seasons, the club does not have a protected first round pick and the organization would be hard pressed to forfeit their #12 pick this summer with a still mediocre farm system. These predictions do make some sense because they fit the White Sox m.o. of “re-tooling” on the cheap and actually fill areas of need, not that this philosophy has helped in recent years.
The Cubs will pickup a first round pick for Fowler.
Provided they don’t re-sign Fowler like they did last last offseason. Any gained draft pick would also be a compensatory one that would occur after their own late round selection.
My guess is that Fowler signs late again this offseason because of the qualifying offer, similar to last year. I also believe he may wind up back with the Cubs if they wind up dealing some of their young players for a front line controllable pitcher like Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Sonny Gray or Chris Archer. Moving an outfielder or two from among Kyle Schwarber, Jorge Soler or Albert Almora would open up a spot for Fowler, as would trading Javier Baez which would allow Ben Zobrist to return to 2B.
It’s not terribly likely that the Cubs would part with Schwarber or Baez at this point but if the White Sox do field bids for Sale at least one of those two would have to go back to the South Siders along with another piece or two. The White Sox probably won’t budge from any offer they deem necessary to part with Sale but the Cubs just might bend to add the top southpaw in MLB not named Clayton Kershaw…especially if “Condor” was rumored to be going to another N.L. contender like the Dodgers or Nationals.
Your Yankee signings are not anywhere in line with the current Yankee plan. Adding Chapman, Hill and Pearce for an average annual value of 40 Million dollars while they are over the lux Tax threshold thus adding 20 million in the tax is not the way the Yankees are rolling these days. Your predictions also left the Dodgers without a closer. IMHO the Dodgers will sign Chapman and get the draft pick from Jansen. I expect the Yankees to sit this market out again.
The yanks actually sneaked right below the luxury tax when they got rid of Beltran and Tex’s contracts
Actually this isn’t true at all. The Yanks are just above the luxury tax once you factor in all of the arbitration players. They need to non tender Ackley and Eovaldi in order to get under. Then they will need to trade either Gardner or McCann in order to be able to sign Chapman without going over. Of course the new CB agreement could raise the luxury tax threshold giving the Yanks more wiggle room. I’m in agreement 27championships… no way the Yankees sign all three guys. Definitely not their MO these days.
Yankees have the money to do anything they want, forget the luxury tax. 2018 they are at under 100 million. They will be looking to trade both McCann and Gardner if they can get some young pitching for them.
The Yanks didn’t get rid of Tex’s contract; he retired. The Yankees just lucked out that he did.
Yanks didn’t luck out of anything. Tex was going to become a FA at the end of this past season regardless if he retired or not.
The Yankees got no where near being under the luxury tax even after trading Beltran, Chapman, and Miller. Yankees were well above the $189MM when you count the prorated portions of their salaries and the money sent to Texas in the Beltran deal and the player’s benefits (insurance and other benefits).
The Dodgers are a top contender for the Big Three closers, for sure. As I noted under Holland, someone’s not going to get a FA closer.
I can see them signing Chapman, but they must be weary of long contracts. I can see the trade market as their prime market, rather than the free agent market…
When’s the last time the FA class was this bad?
As a Rangers fan, I mentioned about a month ago to a friend how great Matt Holliday would fit on a one-year deal! Glad to see this site agrees, and I’d love to see it happen. I’m not sure about Hellickson or Gomez though. I hope we try to trade for a solid #2/3 guy.
Man, Jorge de la Rosa doesn’t even make honorable mention. Bad year in 16, but has been league avg recently enough in an impossible place to pitch. Seems a better bet than some of these dudes.
It’s based largely, albeit not entirely, on earning power. The back end of our list is making $8MM on a one-year deal … I don’t see De La Rosa cracking that figure.
I suppose he could’ve landed in the Hon. Mentions, but I think the general thought was that we had to draw a line somewhere.
Coppy literally just said they won’t be signing a pitcher to more than 1-2 year deals, so Hammell for 3 is highly unlikely. I would prefer to see them add Volquez rather than Dickey.
Further, I hope the Braves are not stupid enough to give Wieters $39M to be a butcher behind the plate. I would much rather see them give Castro 2 years plus a 3rd year option to bring his elite framing skills to a young Braves rotation, and to pair his LHed bat with Flowers.
I don’t know that I’ve seen a direct quote from Coppy saying, “No three-year deals for FA starters.” But yeah, the article gave me pause, and I did take them off Hellickson after that.
I can’t recall exactly where I saw it but I did see a quote attributed to Coppy along the lines of that they’d limit contracts to 1 or 2 years UNLESS they really liked the pitcher. It might would be possible with Hammell for 3 years (I’m certainly not going to rule it out).
Personally I could see the Braves being interested in guys like Hammell, Dickey and Wood (among others). I also think they will end up with either Wieters, Castro (whom I think the most likely), or even Avila (whom I’m not overly fond of). I also could see them having more interest in Valbuena over Sean Rodriguez.
Just because the Braves might sign someone to a two or even three year deal doesn’t mean that the player has to fit firmly into place for their two or three year plan. As young players come up in the system and cement themselves as major league contributors then the veteran can always be dealt.to another team. That premise would apply not only to the young upcoming pitchers but also for bridge players who are place holders for guys like Rio Ruiz, Austin Riley, or Travis Demeritte (or whomever eventually settles into thirdbase).
Valbuena? ATL FO has gone to great lengths to get rid of swing-first power hitters with poor contact rates. If that offense is anywhere near the 2nd half numbers, dare I say we can’t afford to sacrifice the OBP for the SLG especially for someone who is not an above-avg defender.
Personally, I can’t see Dickey with ATL. Sure, I get the one-year deal, but they like upside and the ability to find guys on an upswing that they can benefit from a rebuild season and possibly trade at some point, if other pitchers can fill their slot. Not much value in Dickey unless he has a career year. I could see that money going to former Brave Charlie Morton or maybe even Edinson Volquez.
I will admit that Valbuena does strike out a lot. He does however hit left handed (versus Garcia’s righthanded bat), draws a lot of walks (his OBP’s have been at least .331 for 3 of the last 4 seasons), has some power and can play a decent third and even second base (actually he has played some first, outfield and SS too in the majors but I wouldn’t expect those except in extreme circumstances). Over the last four seasons he has put up between 1.6 and 2.6 bWAR a year. He could very nicely fill the role of the left handed side of a platoon at third.
Many of these guys best years are behind them….. wouldn’t spend big dollars on them……
These moves would be so White Sox
As a Cubs fan, those moves for the whitesox make sense. They have the pitching rotation to get to the postseason so I like those moves for them. For the Cubs kenley would be a good pick up, but wouldn’t mind taking a 1 yr deal for cashner at the back end of the rotation.
I’m sorry, did you say Eric Thames? hahahahaha Maybe a team can get Felix Pie on a discount at the same time.
How is Felix Pie comparable to Thames at all? He had one decent season in Korea, nothing special, and that’s it. Thames has been an absolute monster there for 3 years.
I think the point was they were both well known prospects on their clubs who never panned out and had to go overseas to reestablish their value. Monster seasons mean little overseas, KBO is roughly AA level talent and their average fastball velocity is 90mph.
Sure it doesn’t mean much in and of itself necessarily, but it’s sure better than not having 3 monster seasons there. And Thames was never really that big of a prospect, so it’s not like he was really a “bust” like Pie.
Cespedes to LA makes way too much sense. Their lineup struggled mightily against LHP last year. I wonder if LA would consider moving Turner back to 2B and looking into acquiring Longo. I also don’t see them settling for Romo and not getting Chapman or resigning Jansen. LA has a ton of money coming off the books over the next couple seasons.
I don’t see Turner being the guy at second base given his age and importance to the team.
I could see the Red Sox sign Encarnacion maybe that amount annually but shorter. A four year deal may be a bit too risky. I could see a 3 year $65MM with a player option after the 2nd year. Sox would bring back Ziegler and possibly look for another arm. The reliever I would look towards is Greg Holland who I could see Dombrowski give 2 year $20MM. With the Sox rotation I could see them trading a few prospects and going for a proven #3 or leaving it how it is and making a trade at the deadline. Overall the Sox lineup/bullpen will be good but I am still unsure if the rotation would hold up. Price and Porcello will do the job but after them worry me.
Not EE please!! one year for Beltran 15m or 28m for 2years for Kendrys Morales!! And yes fir Ziegler- Holland
EE’s going back to the Jays, like in a few days from now.
I look forward to these every year and go back to them during the course of the offseason. One stylistic comment–and maybe I’m alone on this. I’d like to see something more like “three most likely suitors” at the top of each player’s thumbnail, and “other possibilities” at the bottom.
You are significantly under estimating how desirable it is to play in NY, the center of the world. Most players will take less to play in NY. The Mets and Yankees only have so many roster spots though. I imagine agents will be calling both teams quite often, asking them to consider their clients. Especially the Mets.
Yeah…no. Besides, players don’t care where it is they play and more likely which team has the best chance to get them a ring or give them a decent payday to end their careers on.
Yes they care about those things, which brings us back to NY. If you can’t make the Mets roster then try for the Yankees. Your best chance to win. But unfortunately for them, sometimes players aren’t smart enough to see that.
If only the players and their agents were as smart as NY_Jimbo!
The New York Mets are NOT anyone’s best chance to win and the Yankees are NOT anyone’s second best chance to win.
Did your head explode when Cliff Lee spurned you?
LOL @ Romo being signed …the MLBTR “brain trust” must think Ned is still in charge. Don’t see them signing Cespedes either I think they will revisit the deal for Braun or go after JD Martinez.
If they lose Jansen (which IMO is 50/50) I think they deal for a closer since I don’t see them signing Chapman after cancelling ther trade for him last off-season. and Meloncon I think will be signed before either Chapman/Jansen is signed
What’s funny is that you think Romo is some kind of fancy signing that the post-Ned regime is morally above or something. Granted, they haven’t put a lot of money into free agent relievers, but this is not a lot of cash and it isn’t like they haven’t signed veterans who fit a need to one and two year deals.
Because Freidman never signed bullpen guys who looked done while he was in Tampa Bay to close for him…
I can’t see any of the top guys signing that cheaply! Revenue keeps flowing upwards, no way these players are signing for less than last year’s crop! Cespedes will get 6 years, EE and his agent now reported he wants 5 years. I’ve said all along there are going to be 6-8 teams in on him. No way the Sox get him for less than 100 mil (and that’s probably only 4 years). Morales should be able to finagle at least 3 years, a cheap power hitter to fit right in the middle of the line-up? I disagree with most of this, we’ll see what happens soon…
I was at 6/150 for Cespedes for most of the year, but just wasn’t feeling it after looking at the teams I think will be involved. But sure, he could still get it.
EE getting five years, I doubt.
Kendrys at three years, wouldn’t rule it out.
It’s crazy to think the Tigers aren’t mentioned, but then again it is refreshing that they appear to be trying to save $ and get younger
If they trade JD Martinez, I could see them going after an OF in FA. I wouldn’t mind seeing them go after Thames. They need a reliable lefty bat. Jay might be a fit in CF.
The Reddick and Walker contracts seem light on years and $$$
We did spend much of the year at four years on both. Jeff Todd I believe still expects four for Reddick.
Better believe it! Though I had him at like 4/44.
I’m surprised you have his AAV so low. He provides decent defense as far as DRS and has been consistently above average offensively. I would think that would net him around 4/60
30yo who had a rough second half, moderate power, league average defense, and has shown some frailty issues spending decent time on the the DL 3 out of the last 5 years. His market could go in several directions.
Concur, Reddick’s issues in LA are purely league change issues. He would be fine next season in the NL and fits in SF as Pence ages he moves to left and Reddick plays right. I think the Giants could give him four at 50 or five years at 60. They like certainty in the lineup
If the best offer dex gets is 4/$64 then he will be a cub again.
The Cubs’ outfield situation is an interesting one. Lot of different directions they could go. I’m hoping to publish my offseason outlook on them this week.
I do not see the Dodgers committing $224MM to 2 hitters (Cespedes and Turner) and Sergio Romo and not getting 1 of the top 3 closers. Dodgers trade for Braun with Brewers taking Puig and McCarthy plus couple of prospects and use the Cespedes/Romo money to sign both Turner and Jansen.
Eh, signing Cespedes isn’t that much more expensive than taking on Braun’s contract.
Of the various teams seeking a closer, the Dodgers seem the most likely to draw the line and not get drawn into a bidding war. There are ways to be creative other than signing one of three guys.
In my scenario the Brewers take on Puig’s contract ($approx $14MM over next 2 years) and McCarthy’s ( approx $22MM) for Braun’s $80MM — so net increase to Dodgers of roughly $44MM whereas Cespedes is $125MM commitment for 5 years. AND Dodgers forfeit first rd draft pick by signing Cespedes — Seems much more expensive to me.
What an awful crop of free agents.
The authors of this article put in some heavy effort.
The 2016 free agent market consists of a couple front line relievers, high profile bad actors and twilight athletes mixed with a great majority of non-tender waiver wire trash.
Most of the Agents are trying to cash in on one or two good seasons from years past while Management is looking for that “diamond in the rough”. (As is the case every year)
I feel that Kenley Jansen is the top of this fee agent class. I’m watching Travis Wood, Jason Castro, Neftali Feliz, Eric Thames and Chase Utley.
I am a lititle surprise by the Jays resigning Bautistart. Bautista is very proud plus the Jays need to get younger and I don’t see a march.
It’s not a pick I like; I just liked other picks even less. I kind of picture him not finding the market to his liking and coming back at less than he wanted. But a lot of people expect him to be gone.
I am a lititle surprise by the Jays resigning Bautistart. Bautista is very proud plus the Jays need to get younger and I don’t see a match.
Mets would never sign Utley after the incident last year. I know you have him going to the Angles but you have the Mets as another possibility. I understand that Tejada is no longer a Met but still Mets fans will never forgive him. If walker leaves which I doubt he will they will turn to the trade market before even considering Utley
I predict that Mets fans would debate it a lot and then forgive him or hate him depending upon how he played.
Luckily for the Mets, the fans aren’t the ones signing the players, so the fans forgiving him has no bearing on whether he gets signed or not.
I also agree with the person on here that said the Cubs should take a flyer on Cashner on a 1 year deal. But I wouldn’t be surprised if they have Mongumry as the 5th starter next year and have someone like Cahill or Wood as the long man in the pen. I also see them someone who could play 1st and is a power bat off the bench as well, wouldn’t be surprised if Alverez ends up on the Cubs on a one year deal as well
I would be surprised if the Cubs sign Pedro Alvarez. I can’t see him sign with an NL team where 1B and 3B are completely blocked, and his entire role would be pinch-hitting against RHP occasionally.
I also don’t think they’d let Hammel walk and then sign Cashner, who is generally a worse pitcher.
The Cubs cleared a rotation spot by releasing hammel to make a big trade. They didn’t let hammel go to hand over that rotation spot to a roll of the dice in Montgomery. Theo is looking long term and wants a young stud starter that is under team control on the cheap for 4+ years.
Lackey will be the Cubs #5 starter when next season begins.
I think Theo looks to upgrade his pitching with a player like Odorizzi, Tampa would get Soler or Almora, and 2 lower prospects.
Although this probably won’t ever happen, if this is true, the Phillies should offer Velasquez to the Cubs for Schwarber as a centerpiece.
Oh please do not sign Nova for that contract Eppler and Co.
yeah no thanks. much rather have walker than nova for angels. and 8 mill for utley? once again, would much rather have walker. I really really want walker, i think he’s perfect for the angels
Walker now has a QO attached to him and with the Angels trying to build a farm system giving up a first round pick doesn’t help.
It would be a second round pick, but that is still very valuable when you have a weak farm system. Angels need to shoot for 2018
it is a second round pick, which still really hurts us but i think walker would be worth it
dont you think that $14million is a little much for a 40 year old Beltran?
If he were showing any sign of slowing down at the plate, perhaps. But he’s coming off his best season since 2013, and $14MM isn’t much for most clubs these days — especially on a one-year deal.
Pederson, Verdugo, DeLeon, Calhoun
& Barnes for Archer & Kiermaier or Longoria.
Seems realistic…
Love seeing Thames on here. He is a beast. I saw him a lot this summer. I see a very good platoon LF-1B in MLB.
Hellickson, Wood and Morton are very over valued. Wouldnt sign any of them
No way the Yanks sign 37 yr old Rich Hill. Cash and Little Stein want to get under $189 mil by 2018. I would not be surprised if the signed Chapman and then traded for a guy similar to Eovaldi.
That’s what I was thinking. With all this talk about the Yankees wanting to get younger a 37 year old starter just doesn’t seem to be the right choice. I’d like to see Hellickson if the Yankees do go out and sign one of the big free agent starters. Also Derek Holland could make sense as a cheap reclamation project for the Yankees with all the openings in the rotation.
I don’t think the Yanks get any pitch from free agency, my guess is they trade for pitching.
They simply want to get under the threshold which is slated to be around 200-220
Does Lourdes Gurriel Jr. not qualify for the list even though he is a FA? If the list is based on earning potential, I would think he’d be in there…
But this is technically a list formulated by the 6 years FA that was eearned in which these 50 fas are going to be on an MLB team from the get go.
That would make sense if Eric Thames weren’t on the list and if MLBTR hadn’t had international FAs on these types of lists in the past
Nats get only ONE of he top 50 signings. With money coming off the books. Come on!!! I know they’ll be aggressive on the trade front but just one measly question-mark pitcher???
Actually, they have them getting two on the list, Holland and Moss.
Cashner could be the steal of this class if the Pirates are able to turn him around and help him realize his potential. Searage his the new Dave Duncan.
He does seem like a perfect reclaim project.
Settling for reclamation projects didn’t work last year and isn’t the foundation for fielding a consistent winner. Especially when you watch all of them leave after resurrecting their careers. Also, the Bucs could’ve had Cashner last year via trade and passed.
Since there is forecasts for a lot of trades, can you do a trade forecast article? Thanks
Yes this is the best site on the internet, Bring on the contest!
So you’ve got Joey Bats and Morales both going to the Jays? Two DHs?
Sorry bud you don’t make much sense, especially when the Jays are trying to get younger and more athletic..
Bautista played 26 games at DH and 91 games in the OF last year. He’s not a primary DH.
His defensive grading suggest he SHOULD be primarily a DH. If he is as poor as he is now, then he will most likely only decline as he continues to age.
To give you and idea of how poorly Bautista performed in the field fangraphs had him at -8 defensive runs allowed in 2016 and he had a -9.6 dWAR The ONLY rightfielders (by dWAR) who performed worse in 2016 with at least 150 innings of play time were Mark Trumbo, Yasmany Thomas, Matt Kemp, Domingo Santana, Jay Bruce and J.D. Martinez (all universally described as terrible outfielders).
Matt Joyce is a good fit for Brewer team lacking in LH hitting punch. They could really use a better extra OF bat than Kirk Nieuwenhuis. Nieuwenhuis’ value is that he plays CF but with Hernan Perez showing ability to play there and Brewers stacked in the high minors with CF prospects, should Broxton falter or be injured, they have options. Braun (assuming he’s still a Brewer) needs a weekly day off and Santana can use some platoon help in RF on occasion. Joyce would fill that role nicely.
I’m not sure which of the guys on this list I’m going to vote for today.
Per Mark Bowman last night ” There has never seemed to be interest in pursuing Matt Wieters.”
I think someone goes harder after Hammel. I know Hammel is older but if Hellickson can get four years Hammel can as well and someone desperate for pitching will do that – Marlins are in that mode Braves aren’t.
I would like to pick the Twins for a few of these, but I have no idea what Falvey/Levine have in mind. Terry Ryan was fairly predictable.
I can’t imagine the Jays letting Encarnacíon go for 4/$92M, his contract will be a lot higher imo, especially if he signs elsewhere. It would makes sense for the Jays to let Bautista go and keep the draft pick. Morales can replace him without giving up the pick.
The Red Sox will NOT go after Encarnacion. People have to stop thinking or wishing for this to come true, it wont.
NO WAY WILL THE SOX GET ENCARNACION but in fact I would love to see them get Justin turner for this price to play 3b and look for and interior option at DH will a combo of Hanley and Shaw at first and swapping Shaw , panda and Hanley at dh
Though I am a sox fan I would love to see them go under the radar and sign Jason hammel that would be a nice rotation of price,porcello, hammel, erod, and either wright or bucholtz
Where do you have Drew Pomeranz in this scenario? I would think that Porcello, Price, E-Rod, and Pomeranz would be locks for the BoSox rotation.
In my opinion the Sox will add an Outfielder, part time at that, likely Beltran. I dont see them adding another 3rd baseman when they still have Sandoval, Shaw, Holt on the roster.
They have Holt, Young, Benintendi, JBJ and Betts in the outfield, plus Moncada
They dont like Holt in the Outfield and Moncada isnt an Outfielder at all, not yet anyways. I also believe that if Sale goes back on the market the Sox will trade JBJ…..for him, so theyll need an Outfielder. Do you follow Twitter at all? You can get all of this info on there, Im not making things up.
Guys, why would the Mets sign Neil Walker to a 3 year, $36 million deal?
The Mets have four players in-house that can probably fill that void at second base (Jose Reyes, Wilmer Flores, TJ Rivera, and Gavin Cecchini), and Wilmer is the most expensive of those guys at probably around $2.9-3 million, while they’ll pay the rest the league minimum..
Presumably, if David Wright is healthy and they want Reyes to lead off, Jose is going to have to be their second baseman, with Wilmer getting time at 1B against lefties, and spelling Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera, or Wright when a lefty is in the lineup. So why spend $12m annually on a redundancy (Walker)?
The Mets and Cespedes make too much sense for one another. If the Mets don’t retain Yo, it changes the entire landscape of their offseason.. They need a right handed bat in the middle of the lineup to balance Conforto, Granderson, Bruce, Duda, so if it’s not Yo, then who? Encarnacion? They’d have to trade Duda when his value is at an all-time low. Bautista? Fine, but you’re banking on him to be an every-day LFer at 36, and probably paying similar money to Cespedes, so why not pay the younger guy that you know? The only way out in a Cespedes-less scenario is moving a big arm for Andrew McCutchen, because he can play CF (assuming Juan Lagares would go in a deal like that). But then you just moved a huge piece (which Sandy already said he doesn’t want to do) for one year of McCutchen, then you’re back in the same spot next year.
I’d predict Cespedes back to the Mets, they let Colon walk, re-sign Kelly Johnson for IF depth at the corners, trade Bruce for back end of the bullpen help.
None of those players is a 20+ home run, 3 fWAR player who makes their lineup longer. When he can’t play second any longer they can slide him over to first. There’s no redundancy there.
Presuming the captain will be healthy is sadly not something one can do with any kind of certainty. His back will always be suspect and it will only get worse as the years go by.
Reyes plays at 34 next year and his legs have always been a problem. Maybe he becomes a power bat in his old age but probably not.
If they can sign Walker for three at 36 they should do that. He only has to be worth 1fWAR a season to justify that and he’ll certainly do that with ease.
We pretty much agree. I agree that Walker is, by far, a better option than their in-house candidates. BUT, we know the Mets aren’t likely to spend for both Cespedes and Walker. The only way both are on the team is if Walker accepts the QO and then the re-sign Cespedes, so my argument is really framed on trying to anticipate how the Mets are going to choose to allocate the funds they deem available to them.
I also would argue that Reyes does, in a sense, lengthen their lineup, because he allows Granderson to bat in a far more favorable position in the order (he was excellent in the clean up spot last year, though I think he’s probably more ideally suited for 5th between Duda and Wright).
Of course you’re right on David. We can’t assume he’ll stay healthy. But if he can play in 90-100 games, you need to find Reyes at bats somewhere. I know he’s entering his age 34 season, but his decline has been vastly overstated. Nine-for-11 in SB attempts in 60 games with the Mets, and before the trade to Colorado in ’15, where he basically sunk into a depression, he was .285/.322/.385 in Toronto with 16 swipes in 18 attempt in 116 games. If Reyes isn’t in the lineup, you’re looking at Lagares leading off against lefties, Granderson against righties.
Again, this is just an argument if it’s Cespedes and Reyes vs. Bruce and Walker. If they decide to spend like an actual big market team and go Cespedes AND Walker, I’ll gladly deal with the crowding problem.
Lagares/Granderson
Cabrera
Cespedes
Duda
Walker
Conforto
Wright
d’Arnaud/Rivera
with a bench headlines by Reyes and Flores (hopefully re-signing Cespedes would mean a trade of Bruce). That doesn’t suck at all.
I don’t think they sigh Cespedes. I know he’s all “I love the Mets…” but the Mets have no recent history of being high bidder for anything. Are they really going to commit $25M for five years to one player when they are more than one player away? In the end it is about the offer. If the Mets are $20M low overall he’s going to take the extra $20M
They do need a RHH as the lineup is very left handed so maybe Sandy is able to move Granderson and/or Bruce and sign Fowler and Cespedes but he could well decide that adding Walker and trading for Puig allows him to sign Wieters.
I don’t know what he’s thinking but Mets ownership haven’t popped the purse strings since Madoff an dI have a hard time thinking they do it now.
The Mets best option would be to trade for Miguel Cabrera. He might not be as expensive to acquire as most here think.
Even if you mean prospect cost, his contract is legitimately expensive.
4yrs 92mm for Edwin is under the market he is looking for. TO will have him back 4y 100mm. Bautista will not be back in Toronto nor will Morales be going there. Blue Jays increasing payroll as they are in a win now mode. Expect them to be in on a lot of FAs that have decent return and potential. Boston doesn’t need Edwin, they have options and one of the most dynamic young teams right now. No need to eat a huge contract after guessing the wrong “Price” last year. New York is not the draw it used to be, I don’t see NYY gearing up now, especially when they want to have as much in place for the Frenzy next year. Baltimore most likely wont be in on the raise Trumbo is getting as he will be in high demand. I also don’t see Saunders going to Baltimore as his second half last year was Mendoza abysmal. To round out the East, Tampa Bay will be Tampa Bay.
Dont back away from the Yankees too quickly. They have the money to spend, lost 2 big bats in Teixiera and ARod and they want to add some power to their lineup. I see Edwin or Trumbo going there.
I would, Yanks have two Young Guys to take over those roles until next year. Yanks wont jeopardize going after Edwin or Trumbo, if it puts their ability to get Manny or Harper next year. Plus their payroll is still insane as it is, they need to dump salary, get young and try and get the big FA next year
You arent looking at the correct payroll numbers if you think the Yanks dont have a ton of money to spend. With a crappy teamthey still made a run at it, add in a big bat or two and theyll compete for the division. You can NEVER count the Yankees out as a big spender.
150mm give or take. Still a year of AROD retained at 20mm, so say 130mm on players. I just don’t see the brass blowing it out the water as it hasn’t been their MO, i see them trying to get by until the can make a splash, not this year. Also don’t count too much on their finish, they played because there was absolutely no pressure or expectations. Rotation is horrid and locked in for a few years. I see them spending a little in arms, not bats.
I’d rather have Reddick than Desmond
I don’t think the cardinals go after fowler. He’s not the worst move they could make but it seems like a reactionary move to Cubs taking heyward and winning it all. Cards have never been reactionary, and I hope they stay that way. They also usually don’t go after free agents over 30 and give up draft picks. I think jbj, or similar in trade is more likely.
Doubt Cashman wants to sign Pearce, too much of a logjam with their younger players in the infield positions, and potentially with the outfield in the future. That is, unless he makes some moves, which he will, but ultimately, he will probably resign with the Orioles because of his recent success there.
I didn’t see a single Detroit Tigers signing
They’ve talked more about unloading contracts through trade than adding new ones. My guess is Detroit has new cheap young players manning several spots, hoping for the best. I think Upton, Iglesias, and Martinez are the most likely to go.
There is going to be a dog fight for the top closers between the Cards,Giants,Dodgers, Cubs, Yanks, and others for Chapman, Jansen, and Melancon
Why would STL be looking for a top closer with Oh and Rosenthal? They seem more like a spot for Cecil and Ziegler.
Any chance Twins add a utility outfielder with some postseason experience?
Another year of “fiscal responsibility” for the Pirates, meaning the pitching staff will be full of reclamation projects even though that strategy backfired last year badly. If McCutchen doesn’t return to form, his best chance at a ring (or finishing better than 3rd in the division) will be accepting a trade
please blue jays for the love of god dont bring back jose, dudes trash now. if crying to every umpire in the league about anything and everything was a important stat in the game he be the mvp every season and get that ridiculous contract he wanted back in spring training. 2017 prediction for jose .225 avg or lower 20 or under homers and miss about half the season cause hes made out of glass, but the stupid jays fans will still love him and think hes still asgood as 2011. been watching this team for 11+ years now ( not a august 2015 fan lol ) and they dont need another bad contract to deal with like wells, rios, or ryan. love to see cespedes in toronto but being realistic if they can bring back edwin and get fowler that be pretty sweet.
The name I see missing from the list is Darwin Barney. I could see him going to the Angles and fill that hole at second base. He defiantly turned his Career around this year with the Blue Jays even though he did come off the bench he did play a lot with injuries to Donaldson E.E and Travis so I could see the Angles going after him and not Utley. What do you think the likelihood of this happening?
I think 4/64 for Fowler seems light, was expecting something more like 5/100.