Top Cuban outfield prospect Luis Robert left his home island in November, according to Ben Badler of Baseball America. His whereabouts are not given in the report, but it seems he is working towards joining a major league organization.
Clubs figure to line up for a chance at the 19-year-old Robert, a right-handed-hitting outfielder who Badler labels one of Cuba’s five best talents, citing his plus bat speed and power. Though he may ultimately turn into a corner outfielder, Robert is currently capable of playing center. Already a productive player in his age-18 season, Robert turned things up a notch in his most recent Serie Nacional action. Before he departed, Robert was hitting a robust .401/.526/.687 with 12 home runs and 11 steals over 232 plate appearances. That put him at or near the top of the leaderboard in most major offensive categories — certainly, rather a notable output given his age (even with the number of talented players that have departed Cuba’s top league in recent years).
As Badler explains at length, Robert’s timeline for obtaining clearance will play a major role in determining his earning capacity and ultimate landing spot. Because the old CBA’s international rules will apply through to the end of the current July 2 signing period — which wraps up on June 15 of this year — it’s still possible that Robert will become eligible to sign under the current system. If not, he’ll be subject to the tighter cap that is set to go into effect under the new CBA (which Badler detailed in full right here).
While Robert could certainly still land a significant payday under either regime, the current one holds out the hope for the greatest riches. That’s because it allows organizations to spend at leisure, so long as they are willing to sacrifice their ability to dole out $300K+ bonuses for two future years and pay a 100% tax on the amount they go past their pool allocation. Under the new system, all clubs will face spending caps, which can be extended only through trades for additional space. While some smaller market teams will receive slightly higher allocations, most organizations won’t be able to go past $4.75MM with their base pool and can’t trade for more than a total of $8.3MM. Plus, Badler notes, some teams have already committed portions of their 2017-18 pool space to other players.
If Robert is cleared to sign before the signing period is up, he’d at least have greater options. That would open the door to the clubs that have already gone past their limits — the Astros, Athletics, Braves, Cardinals, Nationals, Padres and Reds. Otherwise, those organizations would join others (the Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, and Royals) on the sidelines for significant international talents. Alternatively, he could join another club either before or after the signing calendar flips. Badler notes that the White Sox have been discussed as a team with possible interest; if Robert is cleared in time, Chicago (or another hypothetical team with heavy interest) could elect to spend past its 2016-17 pool limits (thus taking on penalties) or make Robert the signature piece of their 2017-18 signing group.
I have a feeling that someone will either be looking for or possess rave reviews pertaining to his defense.
The horse has been beaten enough. Let it finally Rest In Peace.
Come on Rick Hahn! Doubt it happens, but it’d be a great move.
I hope it’s true that Hahn is in on this kid. They haven’t been big spenders in the intl market lately, time to jump back in it.
Assuming that they continue the rebuild and eventually find takers for Robertson and/or Frazier at the very least, they will be saving a TON of money on payroll this year. Might as well reinvest it on a big time prospect like this to advance the rebuild. Push that Abreu/Moncada angle hard.
Just curious where the Blue Jays fall in all this since they have a 1 year penalty. Could they sign him after July 2?
Normally the Jays are excluded from any discussions regarding Cuban talent. But Guerriel was a pleasant surprise and it came under the new management.
This kid from what I have read seems have skills that could have him at least getting a big league cup of coffee next year. It could be a nice addition if the ducks all line up.
Cmon mets, replenish the farm system.
It’s time the for the yanks to flex some muscle .
Mets ownership is too cheap.
The mets *should* make a run at him, but any time there is sig money involved and other teams interested…..it’s hard to see ownership actually giving the okay.
Rick hahn you need to sign this guy keep getting good propects
It is time for the new owners in Seattle to flex some muscle and show they want to win. They have sat on the sidelines watching too many international players being signed time to pick a big one up.
Too bad they spent all that money on Cano. Though he has performed well, each year his production will slip and the last 3-4 will be painful to watch that much money being pissed away.
So many muscles being flexed!
Could Robert be the last piece of an incredible International prospect haul for the Padres? As a Padre fan, I hope Robert has relationships with any or all of Morejon, Ona, Bolanos, Baez and Perez who are all Cuban signees by San Diego this period. The Padres apparently had a $2.4M offer on the table for Cional Perez, so hopefully ownership will again loosen the purse strings and allow Preller and Co. to make an offer if they see fit.
Seems like a very Preller thing to do.
At this point we have to wonder if there’s any cash left. If the kid gets 5 million, do the Padres still have enough to take another 5 million penalty hit?
I read an article a couple of days ago about Fowler’s involvement in the last CBA discussions. Apparently there has never been an owner as involved with the process from start to finish as Fowler was these last negotiations. That being said, he should know more than anyone that this is “the last kick at the can” for the Padres to bring in high priced international talent for the next 2 years and even after that, the new rules will hamper teams from “blowing” these kids away with large bonuses. If Preller and Co. like what they see, I hope that Padre ownership will allow one last expenditure.
The Reds should give this guy a blank check. They’re over their pool limit, so there’s nothing to lose. And there’s no real pop among the outfielders down in the system.
What does a .401 avg in that league translate to major league avg? .301? .285?
I have no idea, but I would also like to know. Someone should make an international baseball conversion calculator, kind of like a currency calculator, but it shows how stats from one country will most likely translate to others, based on past history and grands of other players making the transition.
Trends, not grands
Well, Jose Abreu at his best was .453 avg with 1.583 OPS. At Age 19 he was .293/ .830 OPS, But it really depends on what type of hitter he is, he’ll probably struggle with breaking pitches as most young players do but playing a premium position (CF if he stays there) he looks like he could be worth the risk.
So I read (or tried to) Badler’s breakdown of the new international signing agreement in the new CBA…I would have to say that an international draft seems much easier
Easier, yes. But it denies the player the opportunity to sign with the employer he wants to sign with.
Every other player has to wait 5 plus years though to sign with who they want.
Yeah I can see both arguments but I would still prefer there be an international draft or even just lump the whole draft together and extend it another 10 rounds
Perfect fit for the Padres. We already spent a ton, so a few million more on this kid won’t hurt a bit. Get er done Preller.
Was thinking the same thing. He seems to fit the same profile as Lazarito, who if I remember correctly they were pretty high on.
When Luis Robert comes to the U.S., he will have to adjust to the essentials of Amercan culture.
He’ll have to learn how to handle pop-up ads.
The reality of this comment though…
Tigers should sign him to play CF
He would cost a lot more than the 2 Million the Tigers want to spend.
He’s also 20 years old, and likely won’t be eligible to sign until at least May or June. There’s no way he’s major-league ready at this point, and he certainly wouldn’t do anything to plug an immediate hole for Detroit
Are there restrictions on when a team can offer an extension to an international under 25 FA? Wondering specifically about guys who are major league ready, like Otani, but is that a way around the restrictive new rules?
I would imagine if he clears in time for this signing period the Nats take a hard look at him. Werth is gone after this season and Harper the next. That could set up their Outfield for years with Eaton, Robles, and Robert.
Hahn and rein$dorf already are free of danks 15 mil sales 12 mil eaton 9 mil Austin Jackson 5 mil their 2 catchers combined 6 mil and once again played rent free in the Illinois owned baseball field formerly known as the CELL. Drift is you are free to start spending again , if Owner let’s you
Such a good point, just because they are rebuilding, fans can’t let them off the hook with spending. Part of the reason the Cubs did so well is because they used those savings to rebuild their entire organization, especially at the lower and international levels, on top of all the fan experience amenities. They better start to making some waves in areas they’ve been really deficient, starting with the international level after the scandal a couple years ago. This guy would be a fantastic start to those efforts.
Forgot fat alberts 3 or so million in savings, dump avisal and lawery you at more than half your payroll from last year. If they trade Frazier Robertson melky
Yes this is the type of player that Hahn needs to be all over. He fits perfectly with the timeline of the rebuild. Moncada can help with the transition to the US. The White Sox need offensive prospects and OF prospects. Makes a ton of sense. Plus the money is there.
This is a sign of a team over paying for a guy that could be a second or third round pick in a American draft. No punt intended, but a international draft would be great for MLB. It would keep prospects coming and developing in respectable leagues of their own. It would also create teams from over spending.
Since MLB made changes to draft rules about over spending, why can’t they do something about this? A year penalty for going over slot? Teams are going to keep facing penalties because the reward could be rewarding in the end. All these Cuban players being signed, weakens the talent pool going forward.
This happened to Venezuela, DR, Puerto Rico, etc. and now going to Asian teams. Draining international talent is bad for business in my eyes. Make a year long “International league” for the deported or young players who seek a major league contract. It will give teams and scouts a better look at their abilities.
There is too much risk by draining a countries talented players. Once the storm passes, the country gets overlooked. The revenue that countries get for scouts coming in and staying for a weeks time. We aren’t talking about 10 scouts, 40+ scouts go to see international big players. Not only that, it creates a tourist attraction. Even some of the “has been” would go internationally to attempt to restock their value and get another shot at the MLB. Thoughts?
What part of his profile makes you think he’s a 2nd or 3rd round talent if he was in the MLB draft? His profile seems to be of a more significant prospect than that, notably the plus power to go with the demonstrated hitting ability and patience
Yah, I don’t know what this guy is talking about. Clearly has some sort of issue with players coming from different countries for some reason.
Talent-wise, it sounds like this guy would be a top draft pick – arguably the top fielder available. He’s basically coming out from high school after absolutely dominating for years. And it’s not like he just did it in the Cuban leagues (which is better talent than most high schoolers face I’d argue), he did it in national tournaments as well while being much younger than everyone else. Personally, that’s the first thing I look at with these guys. I don’t care if they put up ridiculous numbers in their leagues if they can’t do it in the national tournaments. If they can put up crazy numbers in Cuba and then do it against other national teams (like he has), then I’m all for making the signing.
Even if he has to move to a corner OF spot, his bat absolutely plays. If he has any chance of sticking in CF, you’re looking at a potential monster. No way in any world would he be considered a 2nd or 3rd round talent. Even assuming he doesn’t turn into a superstar, he’s absolutely worth the risk (like Moncada, Maitan, Lazarito, etc).
I picture him later in the first round to middle of the second round draft pick. I say third round for a slim possibility of going that fair. Some people take this guy as the next “big thing”. He is 19 and has the ability to mature. But the side effects of coming to USA is the culture and language barrier. I won’t deny he has talent and could become a great prospect.My argument is that there should be a draft for international players. Organizations over pay for these players. If you look at the draft classes come May-June, he could easily fall (MLB amateur) in the later part of the first rounds or going into the second round. Come draft day, a lot of players values increase or decrease. So many empathize hoe he can be taken as top pick, I doubt that would be the case. But we will never know because there is no draft for foreign players. Draft can help evaluate player and determine the strength and weakness of these players. As fans, we get a “cheap” scouting report on foreign players. Draft can change all that. D.R has a league for prospects. Venezuela has a pretty decent league for young players and talents. At 19, one year in a high quality league wouldn’t hurt his growth. Maybe improve his stock and maturity
A 1.213 ops?! Are they throwing meatballs in Serie Nacional? Holy crap
Not anymore…they experimented with meat balls for an inning in a preseason game and the results were less than desirable
I hope Braves go in for this guy. Would love to add one more bat before we are locked out of the major signings internationally for the next 2 years.
And as an illegal alien he should be deported and those that assisted in his covert entrance into the U.S. Should be arrested.
And if that had happened to your ancestors, you’d be sending comments here straight from the Beloved Old Country….
I say go ahead and send oneiblind back to his/her beloved old country,.
This is a hot take. It’s not a particularly good one
I’m sure this is a joke, but he’s not going to take up residence in the US or he would be subject to the draft. after he sets up in a different country and signs with a MLB team, he’ll come to the US as a legal immigrant
What makes you think he’d be illegally coming into the country? Looks like another one talking about things he has no knowledge of.
I don’t believe the player link to Baseball Reference is correct. The age is close but the position doesn’t line up (1B vs CF/OF) nor do the 2016 statistics.
In addition, none of the yearly stats in the Ben Badler link matchup..
MLBTR just used the numbers Badler gave, and B-R just doesn’t have the current CNS stats for the year posted yet. And the other numbers Badler is giving are just from the 18U short-seasons and “youth” tournaments. which B-R doesn’t track.
If you look at his position breakdown, it lines up more… only time he’s played 1B was 1 game in ’13 and another in ’14
If you open the Badler link to his full story, none of the stats match up. They are far more impressive than the Baseball Reference numbers used for Luis (Moiran) Robert:
During the current 2016-17 season in Cuba’s top league, Serie Nacional, Robert batted .401/.526/.687 in 232 plate appearances with 12 home runs, 38 walks (10 intentional) and 30 strikeouts with 11 stolen bases in 17 attempts. Despite leaving in season, Robert tied for third in the league in home runs and ranked fifth in stolen bases. Had he accumulated enough plate appearances to qualify, he would have led the league in both OBP (by 49 points) and slugging (by 91 points).
Dominating a league is nothing new for Robert, who excelled in Cuba’s 16U national league in 2012 when he was 14, then the next year played in the country’s 18U league as a 15-year-old, batting .325/.420/.475 in 146 plate appearances and tying for the league lead with 21 stolen bases. In the 18U league again in 2014, Robert batted .380/.530/.570 in 134 plate appearances, tying for second in home runs (three) and stolen bases (17).
He may or may not be the same player but at least the numbers are here for all to see.
MLBTR just used the numbers Badler gave, and B-R just doesn’t have the current CNS stats for the year posted yet. And the other numbers Badler is giving are just from the 18U short-seasons and “youth” tournaments. which B-R doesn’t track.
I get it, thanks!
With jones getting older and the end of his contract, the orioles should move on this unless they plan an extensive rebuild. Especially if they don’t sign trumbo.