If the cards had started that year 2-9 instead of 4-7 they would have missed out on the wild card to the braves. But totally super good point, other than just showing how much those couple games can make a difference.
I think Jason’s point was it’s early and they’re not that far out. Toronto is only 6.5 games back and it’s not even May. There are plenty of examples of teams that have overcome a 6.5 game deficit to make the playoffs.
Couple games certainly can make a difference. But my point is that you can’t really count anyone out yet. Jays could go on hot streak and erase horrible start. Cards are off to bad start, yet only 1.5 behind Cubs so if you look at it from that perspective, anythings possible. Even if your 20 games out in august, still possible, as in 2011. You of all people should realize that things that haven’t happened in long time, or ever, can happen. Cubs 108 year WS drought?
And my point is that it has literally never happened for a team that was in their position, so the claim that there are too many examples of it, is a poor one.
Their playoff odds on fangraphs are 17.7% right now. You want to take the sub 20% bet? I mean yeah, crazy things have happened, but I don’t think there are “too many” examples of teams that have started this poorly making the playoffs that a realistic discussion of them selling is some crazy stretch. They obviously can’t sell now, or anytime soon because teams rarely buy this early, but an internal evaluation of their trade assets at this point isn’t crazy. It might be a moot point if they turn it around, but it’s a conversation they should probably be preparing themselves to have.
6.5 games out after 13 games is “that far out”. Unless for some reason you expect them to all of a sudden be on a 92 over 162 win pace. They are showing issues in a lot of places that people thought they would have issues. Their older players aren’t producing and their pitching staff that was very healthy last year is seeing some attrition. They have been worse than the will be, obviously, but these issues aren’t some crazy unforeseen bad luck situation.
Do you have any sort of logical argument why they might play significantly better over the rest of the season, enough to make up for their poor start, other than, “it’s early and things happen in baseball”? Did you think they were ~a 92 win team to start the season? If your answer is no, then why do you think that now, the will play as that level of team? Having positive variance/luck favor you is possible, but it’s not a strategy to bet on.
Your example showed a team that would have been out if they had the jays start. Why is that supposed to further your point? It does the exact opposite.
And again with the strawman. A teams ws drought has 0 correlation to how a team a team’s beginning of a season influences their playoff chances. You seem to have little idea of how to construct a proper argument.
All it takes is one hot streak and the blue jays are back in it. As of right now they’re 3-11. But if they win 4 more games in a row they’d be at 7-11.
How many times have teams that have started off at 7-11 made the playoffs?
Exactly. It cracks me up at irony of Cubs fans who say teams are out of it and it can’t be done because historically it hasn’t happened. But just last year they scoffed at anyone who said Cubs wouldn’t win because of curses or 108 year history. Win one time and they act like Cubs have always been on top.
It cracks me up that you think those things are at all comparable. Putting aside the stupidity of that comment, you do realize your argument is self defeating, yes?
One thing has historically happened, the other one HAS. You have no valid comparison or argument there.
Your inability to create a real argument is just sad at this point.
Another straw man argument. Must be lots of animal feed on those Missouri farms.
Chester is right, you don’t know how to support your points with facts.
(FWIW, I too like to think the Jays can turn it around. But the facts and stats say otherwise. The difference? I would like to see them succeed. But that’s heart over head. In truth, I don’t see it likely at all.
But I did see the Twins and Braves go from last to first back in the day….)
FWIW, fangraphs gave the 2011 Braves an over 90% chance of making the postseason on 9/1 when they choked away an 8.5 game lead to miss the playoffs. The Jays have some issues for sure but if I were a fan I wouldn’t panic yet.
Do you think the Cardinals could get an upgrade at third base?
They seem like they have 5-6 infielders who can take everyday ABs and not be completely awful, so probably not
“There are too many examples of teams getting hot and quickly making up ground.”
Fun Fact: There are exactly 0 examples of teams that started 1-9 and made the playoffs.
Fun fact, example of similar start, 2011 cardinals started 4-7 and received their 11th ring
If the cards had started that year 2-9 instead of 4-7 they would have missed out on the wild card to the braves. But totally super good point, other than just showing how much those couple games can make a difference.
I think Jason’s point was it’s early and they’re not that far out. Toronto is only 6.5 games back and it’s not even May. There are plenty of examples of teams that have overcome a 6.5 game deficit to make the playoffs.
Couple games certainly can make a difference. But my point is that you can’t really count anyone out yet. Jays could go on hot streak and erase horrible start. Cards are off to bad start, yet only 1.5 behind Cubs so if you look at it from that perspective, anythings possible. Even if your 20 games out in august, still possible, as in 2011. You of all people should realize that things that haven’t happened in long time, or ever, can happen. Cubs 108 year WS drought?
And my point is that it has literally never happened for a team that was in their position, so the claim that there are too many examples of it, is a poor one.
Their playoff odds on fangraphs are 17.7% right now. You want to take the sub 20% bet? I mean yeah, crazy things have happened, but I don’t think there are “too many” examples of teams that have started this poorly making the playoffs that a realistic discussion of them selling is some crazy stretch. They obviously can’t sell now, or anytime soon because teams rarely buy this early, but an internal evaluation of their trade assets at this point isn’t crazy. It might be a moot point if they turn it around, but it’s a conversation they should probably be preparing themselves to have.
6.5 games out after 13 games is “that far out”. Unless for some reason you expect them to all of a sudden be on a 92 over 162 win pace. They are showing issues in a lot of places that people thought they would have issues. Their older players aren’t producing and their pitching staff that was very healthy last year is seeing some attrition. They have been worse than the will be, obviously, but these issues aren’t some crazy unforeseen bad luck situation.
Do you have any sort of logical argument why they might play significantly better over the rest of the season, enough to make up for their poor start, other than, “it’s early and things happen in baseball”? Did you think they were ~a 92 win team to start the season? If your answer is no, then why do you think that now, the will play as that level of team? Having positive variance/luck favor you is possible, but it’s not a strategy to bet on.
Your example showed a team that would have been out if they had the jays start. Why is that supposed to further your point? It does the exact opposite.
And again with the strawman. A teams ws drought has 0 correlation to how a team a team’s beginning of a season influences their playoff chances. You seem to have little idea of how to construct a proper argument.
All it takes is one hot streak and the blue jays are back in it. As of right now they’re 3-11. But if they win 4 more games in a row they’d be at 7-11.
How many times have teams that have started off at 7-11 made the playoffs?
Why are you just assuming they will go 4-0? You are more or less just presenting a gambler’s fallacy argument. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy
Exactly. It cracks me up at irony of Cubs fans who say teams are out of it and it can’t be done because historically it hasn’t happened. But just last year they scoffed at anyone who said Cubs wouldn’t win because of curses or 108 year history. Win one time and they act like Cubs have always been on top.
It cracks me up that you think those things are at all comparable. Putting aside the stupidity of that comment, you do realize your argument is self defeating, yes?
One thing has historically happened, the other one HAS. You have no valid comparison or argument there.
Your inability to create a real argument is just sad at this point.
Another straw man argument. Must be lots of animal feed on those Missouri farms.
Chester is right, you don’t know how to support your points with facts.
(FWIW, I too like to think the Jays can turn it around. But the facts and stats say otherwise. The difference? I would like to see them succeed. But that’s heart over head. In truth, I don’t see it likely at all.
But I did see the Twins and Braves go from last to first back in the day….)
Wtf? Animal feed on Missouri farms? What does that even mean?
FWIW, fangraphs gave the 2011 Braves an over 90% chance of making the postseason on 9/1 when they choked away an 8.5 game lead to miss the playoffs. The Jays have some issues for sure but if I were a fan I wouldn’t panic yet.