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NL Central Notes: Reds, Cecil, Cubs, Arrieta

By Jeff Todd | June 1, 2017 at 11:41am CDT

In his latest notes column, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports argues that the Reds have fared better in some recent trades than had been expected at the time. Indeed, the club is receiving significant contributions from a variety of position players who were added in relatively unheralded swaps, including Eugenio Suarez, Scott Schebler, Adam Duvall, and Jose Peraza.

Here’s more from the NL Central:

  • It came as something of a surprise when lefty Brett Cecil landed four years from the Cardinals, but Rosenthal says other organizations were also willing to do four-year deals for the 30-year-old reliever. The Cubs and Mariners had such offers on the table, though both are said to have underbid St. Louis. As Rosenthal notes, the scuffling Cecil has shown at least some signs recently of emerging from his malaise.
  • Everyone is wondering why the Cubs have failed to break out from their sluggish start, and Dave Cameron of Fangraphs has a look under the hood. The issues aren’t isolated, he finds. Fairly widespread performance dips at the plate, in the field, and on the mound have resulted in a sub-.500 record that is largely deserved based on what the team has done. Though it remains reasonable to expect Chicago to improve its play, Cameron writes, the projections no longer view the current roster as a unique force.
  • Clearly, Jake Arrieta isn’t the only Cubs player who is struggling through the first two months of the season, but he’s perhaps the most prominent. With free agency on the horizon, the stakes are particularly high. His agent, Scott Boras, still thinks that Arrieta’s overall body of work compares favorably to a pair of pitchers (David Price and Max Scherzer) who landed over $200MM in free agency, as Jon Heyman of Fan Rag writes. Though Boras argues that Arrieta’s recent struggles and declining velocity shouldn’t outweigh his lofty established ceiling and big-game performances, teams weighing massive investments will surely be taking a close look at Arrieta’s work over the first two months and the rest of the current season.
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Chicago Cubs Cincinnati Reds Seattle Mariners St. Louis Cardinals Brett Cecil Jake Arrieta

NL East Notes: Fernandez, Phillies, Medlen, Braves
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76 Comments

  1. bigrman

    8 years ago

    Arrietta has had one “ace” like season, and yet continues to think he is one. There are very few true aces in the game, and performing like them for one year doesn’t put a pitcher in the club. Anyone else see him getting a deal like Cueto?

    7
    Reply
    • bigjonliljon

      8 years ago

      Actually 2 ace seasons. But he still shouldn’t see anything close we tobthe contract he thinks.

      2
      Reply
      • tdw1325

        8 years ago

        I mean what is an “ace”? Arrieta had three season I would consider “Ace” 2014 and 2015 are no brainers. 2016 he had 3.10 ERA (top 13), 1.09 WHIP, 8.67 K/9 (top 20) and his BAA was .194 (best in baseball)
        But yea Bigrman is an idiot.

        On that note the velocity drop is extremely worrisome, his second half of last year was not “ace” and hes not getting younger. He DOES NOT deserve $200MM. In fact I wouldn’t touch him in free agency because of the length he will be looking.

        2
        Reply
        • thor would look better in red

          8 years ago

          he had one ace season over 40 starts between two years. his last ten starts or so he pitched to an over 4 era. he is not even as good as cueto over his whole career by comparison. bc of how bad he has been the cubs need another starter. he is not an ace.

          Reply
      • tuna411

        8 years ago

        ‘Aces’ need to throw 220 innings, not 195 or 155. ONE ‘ace’ like season, bor-ass can suck it on the $200,000,000 contract. I’ll predict $15,000,000 per for three years and that’s only if jake the arrogant one can finish 2017 healthy…

        1
        Reply
    • jdgoat

      8 years ago

      Wait which one of 2014-2015 wasn’t ace like in your view? And even last year he’s was probably easily a top 10-15 pitcher in the league

      2
      Reply
      • bigrman

        8 years ago

        His 2014 season. I think the fact that he only threw 156 innings takes that away from him. Even in 2015, I think Grienke had a better year and should’ve won the cy. And last year, I think this just goes on a difference of opinion on what an ace is, but I don’t view a top 10-15 pitcher as an ace. Kershaw, Bumgarner, Scherzer, Sale, Geinke- before last year was there, Price, Felix-before 2 years ago. I think there is a difference between being an ace and having ace stuff, an ace is something established with a proven track record over a longer period of time.

        Reply
    • vinscully16

      8 years ago

      Bigrman, I could not agree more. “Ace” is used far too frequently to describe starting pitchers. There might be 6-7 aces in all of baseball. Arrieta is no ace and his disinterest in signing an extension is proving a bad choice.

      4
      Reply
      • Megadro2000

        8 years ago

        An ace isn’t Jake arrieta. An Ace is someone Like Clayton Kershaw, A guy like Max Scherzer, a guy like Chris Sale, a guy like Justin Verlander. Aces are guys with Long track records of Extreme success.

        2
        Reply
        • ilikebaseball 2

          8 years ago

          LOL Justin Verlander hasn’t been an “Ace” since 2012

          1
          Reply
        • jdgoat

          8 years ago

          Last year he deserved the cy young much more than porcello

          Reply
        • Philliesfan4life

          8 years ago

          Replace Verlander with Bumgarner

          Reply
        • tuna411

          8 years ago

          you might want to take a look at his 2016

          Reply
    • stratcrowder

      8 years ago

      He’s still got terrific stuff.

      1
      Reply
      • bsteady7

        8 years ago

        Stuff is great when it’s thrown for strikes and kept in the park!

        2
        Reply
    • Djones246890

      8 years ago

      Agree. The Jake we are seeing now is the Jake that he has been for 95% of his career.

      Who knows what got into him for that year-and-a-half great run, but I think it’s clear that it’s over.

      2
      Reply
    • T206

      8 years ago

      Heck no!! He’s 31, and he’s clearly not the same pitcher he was 2 seasons ago! Why risk it??

      1
      Reply
  2. thegreatcerealfamine

    8 years ago

    What about the anointed one Schwarber?

    2
    Reply
    • ChiSoxCity

      8 years ago

      Schwarber is due for a trip down to the minors. His slash line has been epically bad. The longer they let him languish in this slump, the harder it will be for him to restore his confidence at the plate. A week or two should press the reset button.

      1
      Reply
      • stratcrowder

        8 years ago

        Really? Yeah, leading the NL in homers warrants a trip to the minors. Geez man.

        Reply
        • TrueOutcomeFan

          8 years ago

          Schwarber, not Schebler. Still a terrible take.

          1
          Reply
        • thegreatcerealfamine

          8 years ago

          Reading is fundamental!

          1
          Reply
        • rocky7

          8 years ago

          Yeh buddy, maybe it should be considered as the Swarbs is batting .165.
          That’s 16.5 hits per 100 at bats Bub and it don’t matter how many of those 16.5 are homers….he leaves a small tribe on the bases every time he comes to bat.

          Reply
    • davep-3

      8 years ago

      Schwarber rushed thru rehab, is playing an unfamiliar position and was put in an uncomfortable lineup position. For as much praise as Maddon gets for his antics (habit team play dress up, bringing in zoo animals, etc), I haven’t seen much of the criticism of his complete mismanagement of this player. Schwarber is 5 for his last 56 with 18k. He needs to go down to AAA and rebuild his confidence and timing.

      4
      Reply
      • chesteraarthur

        8 years ago

        If you haven’t seen much criticism, you must not be in the chicago market. It seems that he is very much praised in national media, though.

        Game 6’s usage of Chapman was a huge one. Leaving Heyward near the top of the order as long as he did last year was a big one at the start of the season. His quick hooks on starters and perceived over usage of his pen. I’m sure there are some I’m forgetting, but yeah, Joe Maddon has been criticized for some of his choices.

        Also, I’m not sure Joe Maddon was the one who decided Schwarber would be activated that quickly last season or has the power to send him to AAA. Pretty sure those are front office decisions.

        1
        Reply
        • Djones246890

          8 years ago

          Most of the criticism comes from White Sox fans, people that don’t understand baseball, or columnists (who are originally from out of town) who hate the Cubs.

          Guys go through slumps. That isn’t the manager’s fault. Anyone that thinks it is, simply doesn’t understand the game.

          Reply
        • socalsoxfan78

          8 years ago

          LOL. White Sox fans don’t understand baseball? That’s almost the funniest thing I’ve ever read on this site!

          Do you care to substantiate your claim with any proof? Do you care to site any sources?

          1
          Reply
        • socalsoxfan78

          8 years ago

          *cite any sources

          Reply
        • ilikebaseball 2

          8 years ago

          Its a manager’s job to set up his players for success as DaveP pointed out Maddon has put a lot on a 23 year old with out even a half season of experience. He needs to get to the minors and work through his holes. Maddon aint helping.

          Reply
        • Djones246890

          8 years ago

          Did I say White Sox fans don’t understand baseball? Learn how to properly comprehend.

          Most White Sox fans hate the Cubs more than they like their own team.

          The evidence is on any Cubs comments board. It’s a classic inferiority complex.

          Reply
        • Djones246890

          8 years ago

          What has he put on him, and no, batting leading isn’t “pressure.”

          You’re a baseball player. You go out there and hit. He’s in a slump. Nothing more.

          If a Major League Baseball player can’t hit in any spot in that lineup, then he doesn’t belong in the major leagues.

          I don’t think that’s the case with Schwarber. It’s merely a sophomore slump, due to opposing picture adjustments.

          1
          Reply
        • Djones246890

          8 years ago

          Leadoff**

          Reply
        • gocincy

          8 years ago

          When your team just broke a 108-year slump, I’m not sure it’s possible for anybody to feel inferior to them.

          Reply
        • Djones246890

          8 years ago

          Clearly you’ve never been to Chicago, then.

          Reply
      • CardinalsNation1

        8 years ago

        Truth! He shouldn’t be batting lead off either

        Reply
    • ABCD

      8 years ago

      Kyle will be shouting S my d to you, tgcf, when he anoints the short porch in RF during the World Series.

      And if he is selling hot dogs there instead, he will be dragging them through the garden; none of that crappy sauerkraut on top.

      Reply
      • thegreatcerealfamine

        8 years ago

        Yea when he’s peddled off to an AL team this winter or kneading the dough at Tommy’s Donut Hut.

        Reply
        • ABCD

          8 years ago

          I got stitches after being hit in the head with a donut. On-deck batters should never use fungoes.

          Reply
    • themed

      8 years ago

      You mean the next coming of Babe Ruth? To help maintain that cub dynasty for the next Ten years?

      Reply
  3. hambone 2

    8 years ago

    I would tend to disagree with the statement that says Reds fans didn’t like the Eugenio Suarez trade at the time. Most of us in Cincy were happy to get the players we got back for Alfredo Simon. Sure Simon was coming off an All Star year but his second half wasnt good and you could see he was playing over his head.

    The Chapman and Frazier deals were the ones that looked bad at the time. It would appear we got the better end of the Frazier one at the moment. Chapman…not so much.

    Dont forget about the good Latos trade in which we got Desclafani and minor leaguer Chad Wallach.

    1
    Reply
    • stratcrowder

      8 years ago

      The Reds wisely sold high on Simon. Suarez was supposed to be a stop gap player and has developed quite well. All in all, I think the Reds did pretty well in their re-stocking of the system. I panned Walt J for a lot of moves over the years, but in retrospect, it is working out so far. They have a long way to go, but with guys due to come up soon, there’s a lot to be excited about in Cincinnati.

      Reply
    • stratcrowder

      8 years ago

      Nailed it.

      Reply
      • gocincy

        8 years ago

        I’d like to see better pitching potential before I can get too excited. The hitters have been nice surprises, but we have little to show from the pitchers we acquired. Disco is the best, but he’s hurting. The pitching will prevent us from contending unless something drastic happens in the next couple years. Right now, we’ve got lots of #4 and #5 starters ( and even more AAA starters).

        Reply
  4. chitown311

    8 years ago

    Maybe just maybe all off these prospects were all hype? Schwarber, Baez, Contreras, Russell, Happ, Almora etc. I mean, even look at Jorge Soler in KC…another can’t miss prospect. I think the flashes of greatness these guys showed translated into “cant miss” status. The dominance of the pitching staff last year kind of masked the shortcomings of some of these players but you can’t expect Kyle Hendricks to repeat his season last year or Arrieta to repeat his ’15 performance can you? Guys like Rizzo and Bryant are solid cornerstones for this team but there will be a lot of vacancies needed to be filled via free agency next year. 3 starting pitchers for one, a closer, and whatever they decide to do with Schwarber in LF, Russell at SS, Baez at 2nd, Contreras catching and the platoon outfield in RF. Hopefully Hayward can continue to keep hitting, but you’re talking WELL OVER $100mm this offseason to replace the dominant players from 16. Plus Maddon in a dunce as a manager

    Reply
    • ABCD

      8 years ago

      I am happy to have Kyle, Baez, Contreras, Russell, Happ, Almora, Hendricks, Edwards, Montgomery through 2021 along with Bryant, Rizzo, Heyward, and Lester. Maddon is not perfect, but you need patience to let things work out over the long season.

      They’re all champs to me… well except for Ian. But he should get a ring with the Cubs in the next five years.

      1
      Reply
      • chitown311

        8 years ago

        Then be happy to have them. Except don’t complain when they are collectively hitting .215 and they’re several games under .500. Much like this season

        Reply
        • ABCD

          8 years ago

          No problem. The season actually starts tomorrow. Cubs are just spotting the Cards and Brewers some games.

          Reply
        • themed

          8 years ago

          Last year all we heard hear was how the cubs were set to be dominant for years and years I guess it’s more like nice one and done.

          Reply
    • Djones246890

      8 years ago

      The uneducated (casual fan) portion of the fan base expected everyone to be a star.

      I never did. If even 2 of the first 6 prospects worked out, I’d be happy.

      There are no guarantees with prospects. That’s what these people do not understand. Just because they have one great year, it doesn’t mean it’s going to happen the next year. That’s the sophomore slump. That’s what Schwarber is going through.

      Teams and players get familiar with them, and they adjust and counter what has made these prospects successful.

      The true MLB ready prospects are able to adjust, and the others are not.

      This is a process that takes TIME and EXPERIENCE. It isn’t Maddon’s fault. It isn’t the front office’s fault. It isn’t the player’s fault. It’s a process.

      This city needs to seriously just calm down. You just won the World Series after 108 years. Try to enjoy it.

      1
      Reply
      • rocky7

        8 years ago

        Well I agree with most of what you said except that it was Cubs fans, casual or ardent educated ones that anointed Schwarber the next coming of Babe Ruth right after he came back from the injury. Nobody had an effective book on how to pitch him and he had success during and right after the playoffs and World Series, but it was Cubs fans not anybody else talking the talk.
        Is it possible that maybe it might have been a touch premature to anoint this player as one of the greatest of all time before he even had 100 major league games under his belt.
        All this came from Cubs fans, casual or ardent. Tough to eat humble pie isn’t it.

        2
        Reply
        • Ry.the.Stunner

          8 years ago

          Many scouts have actually said that they believe Schwarber could be a better pure hitter than Kris Bryant. Obviously those results haven’t panned out yet, but let’s not pretend it was the Cubs anointing him based off of nothing but unwarranted hype.

          Reply
        • rocky7

          8 years ago

          I didn’t say that he wouldn’t actually pan out to be major league average or possibly a very good player.
          And what scouts….Cubs scouts?
          In this blog, post after post by Cubs fans was the anointing of him possibly as good as Ted Williams/Babe Ruth. He had limited Major League time and all I said was it was premature.
          YOu’re the one pretending and I suggest you read my message again, carefully this time.

          Reply
        • chitown311

          8 years ago

          Dead. On. Accurate. Rocky7. But Cubs fans(bandwagon or not) get all up in arms if they hear the truth about baseball gods…i.e. Babe Schwarber lol

          Reply
        • chitown311

          8 years ago

          No Rythestunner. It’s guys like you that do that. For example “results haven’t panned out yet”, instead of “I’m concerned that he will ever be a .250 hitter”. But that’s just me

          Reply
  5. dodgerfan711

    8 years ago

    The Cueto and Chapman returns were underwhelming for the reds but every other move has really panned out for them. They definitely dont deserve the bad rep they got

    Reply
    • stratcrowder

      8 years ago

      Not really. Give it time. Those players will contribute.

      1
      Reply
      • biasisrelitive

        8 years ago

        maybe the ones from the Cueto trade but that Chapman trade was an absolute disaster no ifs ands or buts about it.

        Reply
    • thegreatcerealfamine

      8 years ago

      Yea I was hard on them for a that Chapman debacle. They should have held their ground longer to see how his situation played out!

      Reply
  6. mike156

    8 years ago

    If I am considering bidding on Arrieta-even if I’m the Cubs–I’m waiting to see how this year works out. It’s too early to tell, but he may be morphing into more of a CC rather than a Max. Very long term contract starting in his year 32 season?

    1
    Reply
  7. astros_fan_84

    8 years ago

    Has there ever been a good monster pitching deal? Off the top of my head, I can only think of three:

    -Scherzer
    -Kershaw
    -Nolan Ryan in 1980 (it’s pittance now, but he was the first athlete to ever make $1M a year)

    1
    Reply
    • ABCD

      8 years ago

      Pedro with the Red Sox, Maddux with the Braves were a couple of contracts that were top of the market at the time.

      1
      Reply
    • Cubguy13

      8 years ago

      Lester…

      Reply
  8. Flipjunior89

    8 years ago

    Arrieta is about to go in and out of free agency like Batista lol

    Reply
  9. chitown311

    8 years ago

    Take away Jake Arrieta’s CY season in 2015 and he has a career 4.21 ERA. You still think he’s worth a $200mm+ contract at age 32? Guy gambled and lost. He’ll get 5 years $100mm, but half of what the Cubs would have gave him last year. Failure by him and Boras

    Reply
    • Ry.the.Stunner

      8 years ago

      Luckily the rest of us live in the real world where you can’t just remove entire seasons from player’s stat lines at your leisure to make a point.

      Reply
      • chitown311

        8 years ago

        While that is correct, do not pat a pitcher because of ONE season that will be 3 years removed when he is going to sign a FA deal. I would look at the 2 seasons after to determine which way his career is going to go. But if you’re ok paying him $200mm+, Dave Stewart would approve as well

        Reply
        • Ry.the.Stunner

          8 years ago

          It wasn’t “one season”. His entire career with the Cubs has been fantastic up until about 2/3 of the way through last season. Once he had a change of scenery and coaching, he put up a 2.53, 1.77, and 3.10 ERA. That’s more than ONE good season. This year he has certainly struggled and I have my concerns for him, we’ll see where he ends up in September.

          Reply
        • chitown311

          8 years ago

          Correct. 24 months of “greatness”. But after all star break last year, and what has happened this year, do you think his arrow is pointing up or down? That’s a real question, and the answer is exactly why it proves my point that he’s going to get HALF of what the cubbies would have gave him in an extension last year.

          Reply
  10. outinleftfield

    8 years ago

    I can’t see Arrieta getting anywhere near to $200 million unless he rebounds to put up an ERA well under 3.50 this season. Maybe some team will gamble on him and give him 3 or 4 years at $25m per, but if he doesn’t rebound his 2 consecutive seasons in decline means that more in terms of years or dollars is a sure recipe for disaster.
    I think I would be comfortable with the O’s offering a 4/$80-85M with an opt-out after 1 or 2 years. Make him earn the big pay day.

    Reply
  11. Daver520

    8 years ago

    Boras is a GREEDY jerk and he’s gotta be sweating Arrietta tanking in his walk year .
    I LOVE to hear his spin on his clients when they are under performing, he is SUCH a used car salesman !

    2
    Reply
  12. jd396

    8 years ago

    The Cubs had an incredibly good year last year and they still have a lot of great talent on the roster. But, for a variety of (somewhat understandable) reasons they got a lot of unearned hype and by the end of the postseason had been talked up as the most unstoppable group of people assembled since the Mongol Hordes. It got to be a bit much.

    1
    Reply
    • Ry.the.Stunner

      8 years ago

      And I have zero sympathy for any non-fan that had to endure that because Cubs fans had to put up with endless “108 years!” mockery and now that those fans can’t use that line, they’re whining because the Cubs are getting a lot of attention.

      Reply
      • Priggs89

        8 years ago

        Yah, because the Cubs never got attention before winning the World Series…

        Reply
      • themed

        8 years ago

        Can’t use that line? How bout this one? Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn sometimes. Still the longest drought in any professional sports organization.

        Reply
  13. T206

    8 years ago

    Arrietta is overrated and quite frankly missed his chance to cash in this time. He should just take a one year deal and hope to get back on track!

    Reply
  14. thebare

    8 years ago

    Price and Scherzer both suck maybe it’s Boris . Arrested Harper and Bryant need to drop that loser Baseball need to boycott him

    Reply

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