As I work to complete the latest installation in our top 50 trade deadline candidate series, it occurred to me just how many really good pen lefties could be available this summer. There aren’t many clubs that couldn’t stand to add a power southpaw to the back of the bullpen, so there ought to be significant demand. But might the presence of so many options also help tamp down prices a bit?
As we learned last year, teams will pay a premium at the deadline for truly premium relief arms. But it’s a more debatable group this time around, with Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller locked in with their current organizations.
So, who is the best lefty relief trade target out there? We’ll limit the options to teams that are clearly in a selling position at this point. (That means no Zach Britton; though he’s back from the DL today, his availability seems quite speculative.) Here are my nominees (in alphabetical order):
- Jerry Blevins, Mets ($5.5MM salary with $7MM club option): The walks to righties have piled up, but Blevins is drawing loads of swings and misses (a career-high 13.3%) and he’s death to lefties.
- Ryan Buchter, Padres (league minimum salary; four arb years remaining): Since joining the Friars, Buchter has a 2.96 ERA with 11.1 K/9. Sure, he’s allowed 4.4 BB/9 in that span and has allowed a few dingers this year — plus, he’s already 30 — but he has also made strides in his whiff rate (now 11.7%) since his breakout 2016.
- Tony Cingrani, Reds ($1.825MM salary; two arb years remaining): Now that he’s back from an oblique strain, it’s time to take notice. Cingrani owns a 2.30 ERA with 15 strikeouts and three walks over his 15 2/3 frames on the year. He’s pumping 95 and generating a 12.6% swinging-strike rate, and whilehehas been dinger-prone that may be an aberration. Several other names on this list have boosted their trade value after taking some time to figure it out; perhaps the 28-year-old offers a similar opportunity.
- Sean Doolittle, Athletics ($2.6MM salary; three option years remaining): Shoulder issues continue to dog Doolittle, but the 30-year-old is borderline ridiculous when healthy. This year, he has compiled 23 strikeouts against just two walks in his 16 1/3 innings. And the highly advantageous contract also helps offset the injury questions.
- Brad Hand, Padres ($1.375MM salary; two arb years remaining): Hand has only continued to bloom in San Diego. In a hefty 44 2/3 innings this year, he has produce 2.42 ERA with 11.3 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 along with a 50.5% groundball rate.
- Tony Watson, Pirates ($5.6MM salary): The 32-year-old hasn’t been himself this year, but he’s a rental player who comes with a very impressive prior track record. While his velocity has trailed off somewhat over the years, he’s still throwing a 93.5 mph heater and getting as many swings and misses as ever. If teams believe his spike in BABIP and home runs will reverse, Watson could be seen as a prime buy-low candidate.
- Justin Wilson, Tigers ($2.7MM salary; one arb year remaining): He’s hitting his stride at an opportune time for Detroit. Over 31 2/3 innings this year, Wilson caries a 2.56 ERA with 13.4 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9. He’s bringing 96-97 mph heat and sporting a career-high 14.5% swinging-strike rate.
Who’s your preferred trade target? (Mobile link.)
What’s boston gonna do?
Trade another position player like Shaw for a broken down reliever lol.
Travis Shaw will never repeat the year hes having. He’s gonna fall off in the 2nd half as will the brewers.
Who will win the 2018 Kentucky Derby?
A 3-year-old horse.
Just hope there’s no abused mare’s!
Get a 3b but they don’t need relievers
No reason at all to get another lefty reliever. With all the lefties in the rotation, they are typically facing lineups stacked with right-handed hitters, so need a righty dominated pen. They’ve already got 2 decent lefties and a few more stashed in AAA.
alex claudio
Doesnt get enough k’s- 5 ish k/9, swinging strike rate is down from 12% to 9.5% where hes regressed 4 years straight, righties mash him, away stats are dreadful but insane gb rates.
Dodgers need to go after Hand or Wilson, with a preference for Hand.
Would the dodgers consider a willie calhoun, gavin lux, trevor oaks trade.
Doubt the dodgers part with alvarez verdugo as a 1 for 1 and doubt they want to include stewart buehler.
All that for Hand? No, they wouldn’t consider that.
that’s way way way to much. try one of those guys and a few lesser guys
Hand is a hot commodity and doubt the Padres want to trade Hand within the division for the next 2 years and the 6 games left this year- of all teams dodgers dbacks and rockies are most likely low on Prellers trade list unless they offer a package worth trading him within the division. Ideally AL team, NL team outside west, NL west team is the pecking order where to deal Hand. Top 100 prospect(Calhoun) is a must. If they’re unwilling to give up Lux it could be Calhoun, Oaks, and May or White instead if the Dodgers are high on lux.
Padres definitely need a ss and pitching out of a Hand deal, but Calhoun Oaks May or White at least gets them pitching and a hitter.
The Padres were perfectly willing to make a big trade with the Dodgers when they thought they could pole-vault themselves into a competitive position. I don’t see them begin any less so on a smaller deal, especially now that they are probably 2+ years away from being competitive.
The Kemp trade was pushed by Padres ownership and at the time Yasmani Grandal was coming off .225/327/.401 with 15 homers year and Zach Eflin was another over hyped prospect the Padres had.
Padres ownership isn’t pushing Preller to trade Hand to the Dodgers nor are they pushing Preller to acquire someone from the Dodgers. Since the ill fated go for it in 2015 ownership has let Preller run the show his way.
I’m not saying trading Hand to the Dodgers is impossible, but if you think matching a deal from the Astros, Red Sox Yankees etc will make Preller trade him to the Dodgers no, Preller most likely will ship Hand to the AL team if the deals are equal. Also, if Preller doesn’t get a deal he likes he can wait to trade Hand during the off season like he did Kimbrel.
This deal and the Wil Myers deal killed the franchise for at least 5 years. Sadly, as you say, it’s hard to blame Preller, probably was a PR move to promote the Padres as a competitive club.
A team that isn’t going to be competitive over the next 2-3 years should not be prioritizing trades to divisions involving a player with only two years of team control remaining. In fact under that scenario, the Dodgers should be far more concerned about who they give up coming back to haunt them. In 3-5 years from now they could be facing a competitive Padres team featuring, say, Willie Calhoun or Trevor Oaks.
The padres should be prioritizing the best deal they can get for Hand. If the Dodgers want Hand they will need to put the best deal on the table plain and simple.
Say the Dodgers offer Calhoun, Oaks, May and the Astros offer Forrest Whitley, Colin Moran, and Freudis Nova for equivalency sakes.
Either way Padres get their top 100 prospect and other lesser pieces but if it came down to it Astros or Dodgers who would Preller trade to? Astros.
The Padres asked for Gleyber Torres for Hand. Neither Verdugo or Alvarez are as highly touted. Remember, TANSTAAPP.
You are probably right about that. Master marketeer Mike Dee was at the helm of the Padres back then and he had an All Star game to promote, so I doubt he gave Preller much leeway in terms of who he brought in. “Give me stars to promote, even if we can’t win that way”. Padres had a horrible team with the worst defense in my lifetime and no real shot at contending, but they had a big bump in ticket sales.
Hated Dee when he was with the Dolphins because he ran the team that way there too. Overpay to get some name stars that can sell tickets, but don’t really worry about putting a good team on the field.
They probably have to give up somewhat more for Hand than for Wilson, if only due to his two years of team control, but I doubt it’s more than one top-50 team prospect and maybe someone from a lower drawer.
While Dodger fans would probably balk at that group, that’s a good trade for both teams. I am sure the Padres would be asking for Buehler to headline the trade.
The Padres are going to get a top 50-100 prospect and 1-2 other quality prospects in return for Hand, so fans of the other teams just have to realize that their prospects are just that and that players like Hand are proven MLB players.
Why would the dodgers trade all that for hand? Thats ridiculous. Relievers dont have good shelf life especially ones without track records. Dayton and Avilan have been just fine
Dayton, maybe. Avilan’s shelf life has already expired.
They’re pretty good loogies at this point. I thought Dayton was going to take a step forward this year, but his mechanical issues have taken time to overcome. But if you put a gun to my head and asked what the biggest need would be I’d have to say that LHR at the end of games.
They both walk too many and that starts more fires than it puts out. Liberatore is still floating around, not sure why he remains on the DL. One of the many other moving parts on the Dodgers roster might well allow Ryu to slide into the LF bullpen role.
Does Chad Green and Luis Cessa for Justin Wilson work? LOL
It’s crazy that Hand is unhittable away from SD but just ok at SD.
the cheap option for a guy with some stuff would be to hit up SF for Osich, with okert and next year, smith (and blach if the need arises- the giants have a lot of left hand relief floating
Astros can make it easier on themselves and do a package deal for Gray and Doolittle. I think the price for Hand will be too steep with plenty of teams in the mix.
Verlander and Wilson would work… using that logic.
Except Verlander has a massive contract and 10 years of age on him compared to Gray…… so, no…. totally different logic.
And, Houston has made no statement on interest in Verlander or Wilson.
All you guys are cool with the fact that Hand has zero track record? Okay…
Zero track record in what?
Tennis. I definitely would not want him as my doubles partner.
But you could have him be your personal chauffeur if you were able to get Venus Williams to be your mixed doubles partner.
He has been nearly un-hittable for a year and a half now that San Diego has made him a full time reliever instead of what Miami did to him in his first few years of his career by bouncing him back and forth from the rotation to the long man role.
120 appearances in 1.5 years being absolutely dominant is zero track record? What more do you need to see? I think that is more than enough of a sample size to know that a team finally found his niche and he is really good.
So a year and a half of dominance is “zero track record”?
This guy is dominant, cheap, young and controllable. He’s by far the best reliever available.
if you are contending you aren’t buying a track record you are buying now.
Yeah, I mean if we are going off track record why not give Billy Wagner a call and see if he wants to come out of retirement.
Players blossom at different times, with different coaching, in the right system that fits them correctly. Hand landed in a good situation in SD where they gave him an opportunity that he wasn’t given in MIA and he has thrived. Live in the now and not that past, and right now Hand is filthy.
Just like every international player signed, every high school and college draft pick. “No proven track record”
Your version of baseball would be horrible to watch.
What about Dan Jennings of the White sox? 1..17 ERA against Left hand hitters.
He probably would be a cheaper option for some teams…and he is only on a deal worth $1..4 M. Probably only owed about 600K and under control for another year.
Any way to vote on mobile devise?
Added a link.
Wilson in the AL is more impressive than Hand in the NL.
Also, Detroit is a wasteland for Relief Pitchers. Wilson performing well there makes him even more impressive.
There are a 1/2 dozen RPs over the last 5 years that did not do well in Detroit but did well as soon as they left.
AL and NL have no bearing on how impressive a reliever is. When Hand comes into games, the opposing pitcher has been long gone from the contest already. Might be arguable for starters because of having to face the DH instead of P a couple times around the order but not for late inning relievers.
AL has better batters. Period.
yeah, and Hand sure had a lot of trouble dealing with the heart of the Cleveland lineup yesterday. Guy got completely lucky to strike out the side, right?
Is that why the NL has won 7 of the last 10 World Series titles? Because the hitting is so much better in the AL?
So pitching does not count at all huh?
And having AL pitchers bat in the WS is not big deal, right?
Also, if you watched the game last night it would have put your theory to bed.
Hand pitched a scoreless 8th inning, striking out the side (Lindor, Brantley and Encarnacion). An American League park against the defending American League champions, in the same division that Wilson pitches in. Mowed their 2,3,4 hitters down just like he does everybody else.
League doesn’t matter, he will be good wherever he pitches because his stuff is just that nasty.
We don’t know if he can do that on a consistent basis though like Wilson can. Also this is an honest question since you seem to know a lot about the Padres, Why is Brandon Maurer the closer instead of Hand? Experience can’t be the lone difference between their ERA’s which leads me to think that he can’t close which would put Wilson a peg above him,but I’ve only seen hand pitch once so I’m not the expert…
Closer is just a title. He gets on important situations even if it’s not yet time to “close” a game, I can guarantee getting out Lindor, Brantley and Encarnacion was far more important than “getting the save”.
To me its his usage makes him much more valuable in a set up man role instead of in the closer role. Hand wants to throw every single day and can go multiple innings. I’m pretty sure he led the league in appearances for relievers last year. He’s more valuable not closing because he can pitch so much more often.
Mauer has more of a classic closer repertoire, and the Pads think he has the makeup for that position. He actually does fine when he comes in for a save opportunity but seems to always blow the game if he comes in when its tied or they’re down.
But teams such as the Nats want closers in particular. The closer title boosts his trade value significantly
Well if your goal is to acquire a better closer, then Hand probably isn’t the target you’re looking at and Robertson or Wilson would be better options.
If your goal is to create the best bullpen possible then you have to consider Hand as an option.
Hand led the league in innings pitched by a reliever last year. The guy is a workhorse and closers typically do not throw 90 innings. You would be diminishing his value and using him less efficiently if he only threw in the 9th.
How do you know the Nats want closers in particular? And are you suggesting Rizzo would prefer Maurer to Hand?
It’s the worst kept secret in the MLB…lol they’re a good closer away from a WS. Nats were aggressively pursuing Robertson. But now the interest has kind of leveled out. Justin Wilson checks all the boxes for them and I think the Nats have plenty of prospects that will interest the tigers including Andrew Stevenson, who could potentially be their CF of the future.
Neh. NL relievers usually don’t face a pitcher and face a counter pinch-hitter. The AL/NL argument doesn’t apply to relief pitching.
Detroit probably needs a new pitching coach from what you say.
Tony Watson has a great track record, but you could have said the same thing about Enron stock in 2000.
I’ll take Brad hand on the cubs. Replace Hector rondon. Edwards , hand and Davis thats 2015 kc royals all over again.
The Padres most likely won’t deal Hand in the division, so I don’t think the Dodgers make a good fit.
The Dodgers and Padres have already done a much larger trade than Hand. Not sure why you think Hand is special in that respect.
The Kemp trade was more ownership than Preller facilitating it. But, I do think the Padres would trade Hand to the Dodgers, but the Dodgers have to meet a higher asking price to justify trading Hand within the division for the next 2 and 1/2 years.
Asking price starts at Calhoun and some pitching realistically. But for sure Preller will check in on Lux mainly cause Hand is their best trade chip and Padres need pitching and a ss. But I do think Preller would have interest in White, Oaks, May in addition to Calhoun.
Before that Kemp trade I honestly can’t remember the last time the Padres and Dodgers made a trade. I don’t think the Pads would have an issue with it though since they’re not going to be good the next few years that LA would have Hand.
I would think the Dodgers would be the ones skittish about giving up a solid prospect to a team they have to play so often. I don’t know if they’d bite on a 1 for 1 swap for Verdugo but say they did and then he just rakes against them for the next 5 years, that would suck for the front office.
Not if the dodgers win the WS the next 3 years. I mean no matter what Torres, Mckinney, Warren do for the Yankees the cubs won the 2016 WS with chapman.
Any prospects the Dodgers trade for Hand they could be HOF players but if the Dodgers win a WS the next 3 years doesn’t really matter.
You can replace prospects. You cant replace opportunities to win a WS. End of the day teams are going out to win a WS.
By that logic, what if Torres becomes the next Derek Jeter and wins 5 World Series with the Yankees? End of the day the Yanks would end up getting more WS wins out of that trade.
That deal looks great this year because Chapman helped win a WS, but if Torres becomes a consistent all-star 5 years down the road its going to look like a colossal overpay.
yeah, but without Chapman the Cubs don’t win the world series, and Torres doesn’t guarantee a WS win so, even then I would consider it a win for the Cubs. They got what they wanted.
Cubs have their WS. There is no what ifs about that. Cubs are the WS champions of 2016. All stars and HOF awards aren’t WS.
What if Torres becomes the next Jeter and wins 5 WS? Well means the Yankees put out a WS team- Jeter didn’t win those WS by himself.
Pretty sure Cone, Wells, Petite, Rivera Posada, Giradi, Brosius, Tino, Knoblauch, O’Neil, Bernie and Strawberry, Clemens, Orlando, Irabu helped the 1998-2000 teams and in 2009 Texiera Sabathia Cano Melky Swisher were there too.
The cubs didn’t trade an entire team to the yankees for Chapman.
Hand has to be the top lefty right now. Not only does he get left handed hitters out, but he gets right handed hitters out.. Seeing him strike out Lindor, Brantley and Encarnacion yesterday in his 1 inning re-affirmed it. He also has gone more than 1 inning multiple times.
What’s a realistic return for Blevins?
Just hope that if the A’s trade Doolittle he will give a big return, someone like Robles, if you include Madson. No need to trade Doo when there are 3 years of control left after 2017 and bullpen is something Oakland will need to adress before 2018.
Should be looking at the Yankees- I mean trading Alonso and Doolittle to the Yankees for Rutherford, Adams, Clarkin, and Florial makes a lot of sense for both the A’s and Yankees.
Yankees fill 1B and pen, A’s pick up two OFs with high upside, two pitchers, a top 50 prospect in Rutherford and top 100 prospect in Adams.
I still think the Tigers and Dodgers are really a dream match in terms of needs and types of prospects. They have a score of LH bats ready or close to ready. The have an array that are surplus. I lean wilson in terms of thinking about LH late inning guys. His experience closing also doesn’t hurt although that’s not really a major factor. Wilson pushes Baez and Morrow back, or allows to Jansen to float during the playoffs if need be.
I like Hand’s massive ground ball rate, a really good skill for a reliever, especially with a good defensive infield behind him. Wilson I could live with too. That opens another possible intrigue: Verlander + Wilson.
They are somewhat similar. To be honest I like the power arm to pair with Baez and Morrow. It’d be easier to find another gb specialist than a substantial power arm.
Seems to me power arms are practically dime a dozen items these days. Someone who can pitch, that’s more scarce.