Blue Jays right-hander Marco Estrada is scheduled to become a free agent in the offseason, but a trip to the open market isn’t a certainty. A member of the Toronto organization informed FanRag’s Robert Murray that there’s mutual interest in keeping Estrada in a Blue Jays uniform beyond this season.
“The player loves Toronto, the agent says publicly he doesn’t want to go anywhere,” the source said. “Frankly, we are open to extending him.”
Estrada is on the verge of completing the two-year, $26MM contract he signed with the Blue Jays prior to the 2016 season. Given his status as an impending free agent and Toronto’s longshot playoff hopes, Estrada seemed like a plausible summer trade candidate. And while the AL East rival Yankees claimed Estrada on revocable waivers this month, they did so in a blocking maneuver, Murray reports (Twitter link). Even if New York had real interest in acquiring Estrada before his 48-hour trade window expired, the Blue Jays weren’t keen on parting with him. In fact, manager John Gibbons told reporters Tuesday that the Jays “need” Estrada.
Despite Gibbons’ endorsement, the 34-year-old Estrada’s 5.09 ERA through 139 2/3 innings likely means his stock has dropped to some extent since the outset of the campaign. He entered the year having combined for a 3.30 ERA over 357 innings from 2015-16, his first two seasons in Toronto. Estrada did so in spite of unremarkable strikeout (7.46 K/9), walk (3.03 BB/9) and ground-ball (32.8 percent) numbers, though he overcame those figures by generating weak contact. No starter posted a better infield fly rate (14 percent) or a lower batting average on balls in play (.224) over that two-year span than Estrada, who’s third in the majors this season in the infield pop-up department (14.5 percent). However, Estrada’s BABIP allowed has skyrocketed to .312 – an increase that has come even though he has continued to do a nice job suppressing strong contact. Estrada’s expected weighted on-base average against is just .303, a far cry from his actual wOBA surrendered (.349, via Statcast and Baseball Savant).
There is some misfortune at play with respect to Estrada’s bloated ERA, then, and it’s also worth noting that his 9.21 K/9, 23.3 strikeout percentage and 11.4 percent are all above average relative to his career numbers. While Estrada’s walk (3.87 BB/9) and grounder (30 percent) rates continue to underwhelm, he remains a capable starter – one who’d generate a decent amount of interest in free agency. Although, if both the Jays and Estrada have it their way, potential suitors among the league’s other 29 teams may not even get the opportunity to bid on him.
Estrada is a good pitcher, I think he’s pitched through back issues for a while now. Still, I would have sold any and all were I the Jays GM. Build for the arrival of Vlad Jr and Bichette, not that either are a sure thing, but they provide a solid point of focus. Jays appear caught in between and I remain unsure of their plan.
Building around 2 A ball prospects sounds a little insane.
I think what he meant is to get controllable young players to have in the other positions and to hope that those prospects workout like they have been. It might have just been said wrong.
Maintaining an aging core that is competing below .500 seems odd. Rebuild, Jays need to get younger. Nothing wrong with building for the future around two stud prospects in AA.
Agreed, the reason they are maintaining a sub 500 team is for money. By doing that they are keeping the barn full…Fortunately that kool-aid is not being swallowed by all the fans. It won’t take long to see that this team has years of mediocrity ahead of it, unless they blow it up and get many more nearer to the MLB level prospects.
I imagine there was no trade value as teams looked at a 5.00 ERA and considered their part in trading for him would simply be taking on the additional salary. Hence, still a Blue Jay. I think he is worthy of a one-year contract. If the Jays feel the same, then he’s likely to test free agency.
I think teams are smart enough these days to realize ERA is an outmoded statistic, so I doubt that had anything to do with it. Besides, the article states that Estrada was claimed simply to block another team from acquiring him. The claiming team didn’t really want him. They just didn’t want another playoff contender to get him.
ERA is not out dated. Its not the end all judge someone by it, but it’s still useful
It’s not outdated in the sense that explains how effective a pitcher has been (his results to this point). It is outdated as a tool for predicting future performance, though. K and BB rates, quality of contact statistics, zone percentage, etc. have all been shown to be better predictors of future performance than ERA. That’s why front offices won’t pay top dollar for a guy with a good ERA and crappy peripherals any more.
In other words, it’s not a useful tool for teams looking to acquire players as the acquiring team is paying for future performance.
“A member of the Toronto organizastion” Soooo a peanut vendor.
I’ve loved watching Acestrada the past couple of seasons and hope he returns. I still can’t believe how his junkballing has gotten such great results in the AL East. His change up has got to be a dark horse for the best pitch in baseball
He would be good in the postseason with the yanks because he could take over Jaime gracias spot they could gray Estrada maybe Tanaka maybe Severino maybe Sabathia and maybe Garcia and Jordan Montgomery has been good for the yanks
english?
maybe
I hope the Jays don’t sign/extend Estrada unless it is on the cheap. In spring training, my scouting eyes saw his 2017 decline and that decline will only continue next year. Having said that at the right price he can be a good depth guy. One year 3 to 4 million only. Anything more and he’ll be overpriced.
The market is going to prove you drastically wrong
Time and his performance next year will prove me drastically correct. I called it in spring training for Happ, Estrada, the blue Jays lousy year, and a load of other players like Pillar or Travis can’t lead-off etc. Watch Estrada next year for the whole year, what I am saying will be accurate…I’d be very surprised if Estrada can pitch over a 100 innings next year.
You should be managing somewhere.
Nice of you to say. Can I use you as a reference?
You can use me!!!
An old pitcher with back issues.
The current leadership in the organization seems to have no plan at all. It reminds me of the Blue Jays from the late 90’s early 2000’s.