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MLBTR Poll: Josh Bell’s Future

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The Pirates have a new general manager in Ben Cherington, whom they officially introduced as Neal Huntington’s replacement Monday. Pirates owner Bob Nutting indicated then that the Pirates, a few weeks removed from a 69-win season and their fourth straight year without a playoff berth, don’t regard anyone on their roster as untouchable. Even before Nutting made that revelation, many considered high-profile Pirates such as Starling Marte, Chris Archer and Keone Kela as trade candidates. But in the wake of Nutting’s comments, there’s an even bigger name in the mix: first baseman Josh Bell.

Would the Cherington-led Pirates dare shop Bell, who has arguably emerged as their first franchise player since the Andrew McCutchen era came to an end after the 2017 season? Bell, like McCutchen, is a homegrown Pirate made good. A second-round pick of the Pirates in 2011, Bell debuted in 2016 and posted mediocre numbers (relative to his offense-driven position) during the first three years of his career. But the switch-hitting Bell broke out this year during an All-Star season in which he slashed .277/.367/.569 with 37 home runs and 116 runs batted in – an impressive amount even if you regard RBI as an antiquated statistic.

So what’s the problem for Pittsburgh, which seems to have a real building block on its hands at first? As is often the case, it’s about the money. The 27-year-old Bell’s projected to make an affordable $5.9MM via arbitration in 2020, though he has just two more seasons of arbitration control thereafter. And considering their current state, it may be unrealistic on the Pirates’ part to expect they’ll turn back into contenders during Bell’s remaining arb years.

The Pirates could extend Bell in that time span and retain him for the long haul, though as of July, super-agent Scott Boras didn’t sound optimistic about a new deal coming together. Boras took aim at the Pirates for not showing a willingness “to go out and invest in a great young player for a long time,” also criticizing the team for a payroll that has barely climbed (relative to its profits) across the past two decades.

It’s hard to argue with the opinionated Boras regarding the Pirates, especially considering they still haven’t signed anyone for more than the $60MM extension they gave former star catcher Jason Kendall back in November 2000. Bell would likely rake in more on his next pact, but should Pittsburgh make an aggressive push to lock him up at this point? Should the team simply keep Bell and continue going year to year with him? Or maybe now is the time to trade Bell, who’s more appealing than all free-agent first basemen on the open market.

(Poll link for app users)

Trade Candidate: Miguel Andujar

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The Yankees entered the 2019 season expecting Miguel Andujar to continue establishing himself as one of the best young third basemen in baseball. It wasn’t an unrealistic thought on the Yankees’ part, as Andujar was then just several months removed from a 2018 rookie campaign in which he posted outstanding offensive numbers and seemed capable of hitting a double at will. But this past season ended up serving as a massive disappointment for Andujar, who battled right shoulder problems from the outset and barely factored into the Yankees’ 103-win outburst.

Andujar, owner of a sparkling .297/.328/.527 line with 27 home runs during a 606-PA rookie showing, fell from grace this season over 49 injury-affected trips to the plate. The 24-year-old batted a horrid .128/.143/.128 without a homer, and now it’s fair to wonder if he has walked to the plate as a Yankee for the last time.

General manager Brian Cashman has always advocated for Andujar, and that remains the case, but the executive revealed last week that Andujar – even after a nightmarish season – continues to garner plenty of trade interest. Cashman could easily swat away Andujar suitors, as he has consistently done, but unlike last winter, it wouldn’t be out of bounds to wonder whether the Yankees still have a place for him.

When Andujar’s shoulder troubles put an end to his 2019 in mid-May, there was panic because it didn’t seem the club had an obvious replacement on hand. But it turned out the little-known Gio Urshela was more than up to the task, as the 28-year-old slashed a jaw-dropping .314/.355/.534 and swatted 21 HRs with 3.1 fWAR over 476 PA. Was it a fluke from someone who had never even hit much in the minors? Perhaps. However, when Cashman was discussing the Yankees’ third base plans last week, he suggested the position will remain in Urshela’s hands going into 2020. If Urshela continues clinging to the role, is there any other obvious place to put Andujar – whose defense at third has generated poor reviews thus far? It’s debatable.

Cashman has stated the Yankees are open to trying Andujar at first base or in the corner outfield, but the club also has plenty of talent in those areas. Luke Voit, Mike Ford and even the semi-forgotten, injury-riddled Greg Bird represent options there. Even if you’ve given up on Bird (and who could blame you?), Voit and Ford make for a pair of effective major league bats who are affordable. In the corner outfield, meanwhile, the Yankees have the superstar tandem of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton with some potential mix of Brett Gardner, Mike Tauchman and Clint Frazier as fallback choices. Would there be space for Andujar there? Maybe, especially as the free agent Gardner (if he re-signs) will likely be the Yankees’ go-to guy in center field with Aaron Hicks recovering from Tommy John surgery. And the Yankees could certainly rotate Andujar in at designated hitter, where they figure to also rely on a capable-looking cast consisting of Voit, Ford, Judge, Stanton, Frazier and catcher Gary Sanchez.

It goes without saying that the Yankees do not have to trade Andujar. He’s a potential offensive star who’ll make a relative pittance for the next couple years and isn’t even on track to reach free agency until after the 2023 season. But for a club that’s targeting starting pitching this offseason, it wouldn’t be stunning to see New York deal from a surplus (offensive talent) to land an arm(s) prior to 2020. If Andujar does indeed end up on the block, teams like the Pirates, Tigers, Rangers, Royals, Brewers, Marlins, Indians, Angels, Braves and Nationals are among those who could end up in pursuit. Cashman’s in the catbird seat, though, as he could simply retain Andujar in hopes of a bounce-back season if nobody makes an offer to his liking.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Poll: Qualified Free Agents

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Thursday was the deadline for the 10 players who received the $17.8MM qualifying offer early this offseason to decide whether to take it. Seven players ended up rejecting, two accepted it (Jake Odorizzi and Jose Abreu) and one (Will Smith, now with the Braves) signed a contract with another team. The players who turned it down – Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Josh Donaldson, Madison Bumgarner and Marcell Ozuna – are now in something of a disadvantageous position. With a QO hanging over their heads, it would require another team to surrender both a significant amount of money and draft compensation to sign them.

We’ve seen the QO hamper free agents in the past, but will it occur again this winter? First off, if it does, it’s at least not going to victimize Cole, Rendon or Strasburg. No matter what, they’re primed to lead this class of free agents in guarantees. Cole and Rendon should reel in $200MM-plus in guarantees, while Strasburg could approach that number. On the other hand, Wheeler, Donaldson, Bumgarner and Ozuna may face some degree of adversity thanks to the QO. Here’s a rundown on each…

Zack Wheeler, RHP
Age: 30 in May
MLBTR projection: Five years, $100MM

  • Aside from the QO, is there anything that would scare clubs away from Wheeler? Perhaps his injury history. Wheeler’s a former Tommy John surgery patient who missed all of 2015-16 and a large portion of ’17, though he has come back strong since. He combined for 377 2/3 innings of 3.65 ERA/3.37 FIP ball from 2018-19, during which he was one of the majors’ hardest-throwing starters.

Josh Donaldson, 3B
Age: 34 in December
MLBTR projection: Three years, $75MM

  • Age could be a problem for Donaldson, easily the oldest player left on this offseason’s qualifying offer market. He’s also not far from a couple injury-shortened seasons (2017-18) with the Blue Jays and Indians. To his credit, though, Donaldson was outstanding during a return to health in 2019. In his first and possibly lone season with the Braves, he slashed .259/.379/.521 with 37 home runs over 659 plate appearances. He’s now the second-best free-agent third baseman in a group that also includes Rendon and Mike Moustakas.

Madison Bumgarner, LHP
Age: 30
MLBTR projection: Four years, $72MM

  • Bumgarner, known for his postseason exploits and his long run atop the Giants’ rotation, put injury-limited 2017-18 seasons behind him this year to fire 207 2/3 innings with 8.8 K/9 against 1.86 BB/9. Those are front-of-the-rotation numbers, though the 3.90 ERA/FIP and 4.31 xFIP Bumgarner put up indicate he’s more of a No. 3-type starter nowadays. There’s nothing wrong with that, and judging by the early interest in Bumgarner in free agency, it appears he’ll be fine.

Marcell Ozuna, OF
Age: 29
MLBTR projection: Three years, $45MM

  • Ozuna’s the youngest player here, but he also looks like the least desirable. Although he typically offered above-average production in each season since he debuted in 2013, only once – in 2017 – has Ozuna recorded star-caliber numbers. He’s now coming off a year in which he slashed .243/.330/.474 (good for a decent but unspectacular 110 wRC+) with 29 home runs, 12 stolen bases and 2.6 fWAR across 549 trips to the plate. Does that type of output merit a large contract and draft compensation? We’ll see. It shouldn’t help Ozuna’s cause that there’s a similarly valuable free-agent corner outfielder, Nicholas Castellanos, who’s not saddled with a QO.

(Poll link for app users)

East Rumors: Jays, Yanks, Andujar, Mets, Thor

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The Blue Jays had interest in right-hander Jake Odorizzi before he came off the market by accepting the Twins’ qualifying offer Thursday. Now that Odorizzi’s out of the picture for Toronto, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet lists several free-agent starters who remain on the team’s radar. They have some level of interest in Zack Wheeler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles, Tanner Roark, Michael Pineda, Wade Miley, Rick Porcello and Dallas Keuchel, according to Davidi. Of course, some of those names are more realistic than others for the rebuilding Blue Jays, whose inability to pry Odorizzi from Minnesota “shows their restraint from previous winters remains strong and steady,” Davidi argues. On the other hand, though, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet has heard from multiple agents who, in discussing their clients with the Jays early this offseason, “have noticed a change in tone compared to years past.” One thing appears certain: The team’s casting a wide net as it seeks much-needed rotation help.

  • Yankees third baseman Miguel Andujar was an offensive standout as a rookie in 2018, but a shoulder injury dragged down his production this year and ended his season in mid-May. However, according to Yankees general manager Brian Cashman, Andujar’s adverse 2019 hasn’t diminished teams’ enthusiasm for the 24-year-old. “I’m definitely getting a lot of interest in Miguel Andujar,” Cashman revealed to Michael Kay and Don La Greca of 98.7 FM ESPN New York (audio link). That doesn’t mean the Yankees will trade Andujar, though the defensively challenged slugger has at least temporarily lost his hold on third. Cashman suggested Gio Urshela, who posted an out-of-nowhere breakout season as Andujar’s replacement, is the favorite to continue as the Yankees’ top option at the hot corner. With that in mind, the Yankees are at least considering trying to make Andujar a multi-positional player – someone who can also line up at first and/or in the outfield. Whether or not that comes to fruition, Cashman continues to regard Andujar as “an exciting young talent.”
  • Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen said at the beginning of October that the club’s not going to trade right-hander Noah Syndergaard this offseason. A month and a half later, Van Wagenen hasn’t changed his mind. Teams have called about Syndergaard, but Van Wagenen has rebuffed them, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports. The Mets, if they plan to contend in 2020, don’t seem to be in position to trade Syndergaard. After all, they’re already likely to lose one of their best starters in Zack Wheeler. And Syndergaard’s projected to make an affordable salary ($9.9MM) next year, which is crucial for a New York team that appears to lack financial flexibility.
  • Yankees outfielder Clint Frazier has been popular in trade speculation for years, though the club has held on to him despite a logjam in the grass. Could the Yankees finally part with Frazier this winter? Ken Davidoff of the New York Post discusses Frazier’s trade value with multiple anonymous executives, who unsurprisingly opine that the 25-year-old’s appeal has dipped somewhat. Defense has been a problem for Frazier, who spent a good portion of 2019 in the minors working to improve in that area. He did, however, collect a career-high 246 MLB plate appearances in 2019 and bat an adequate .267/.317/.489 with 12 home runs. Cashman admitted Frazier “took a step backwards” in 2019, though the exec’s encouraged that Frazier has “already proven he can play in New York.”

Central Notes: Lindor, Tigers, Cards, Pirates

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We may be in for weeks of speculation centering on Indians superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor, who’s a potential trade candidate because he’s running out of team control and unlikely to sign an extension. For instance, Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com runs down reasons to trade Lindor now that he’s down to his second-last year of arbitration eligibility, while Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com names potential in-house replacements for the long haul should the Indians deal the 26-year-old. The team is indeed “receiving a lot of trade calls” for Lindor, Jon Heyman of MLB.com tweets. As you’d expect, though, the Indians’ public stance is that Lindor is likely to stay put. “My expectation is Frankie will be the shortstop Opening Day next year,” president Chris Antonetti said.

Here’s more from the game’s Central divisions…

  • Tigers general manager Al Avila said this week that a “bat” – likely either an outfielder or a first baseman – as well as a backup catcher are on his shopping list, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com relays. It doesn’t seem that the Tigers will be adding a shortstop from outside, though. Rather, it looks as if utilityman Niko Goodrum is the favorite to land the job. Avila’s of the belief that young shortstop Willi Castro and catcher Jake Rogers, who made their major league debuts in 2019, need more seasoning at the Triple-A level.
  • Various injuries have prevented 25-year-old Cardinals right-hander Alex Reyes from realizing his vast potential, but it appears he’ll enjoy “a normal offseason progression” this winter, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. Reyes, once among the game’s elite prospects, had an outstanding debut over 46 innings in 2016. He then missed all of 2017 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, threw 27 innings in 2018 (four in the majors) as a result of surgery to repair a tendon in his lat muscle and totaled just 40 1/3 frames this year (three at the MLB level) because of multiple health issues – including a strained pectoral.
  • Pirates infielder Erik Gonzalez underwent left foot surgery Wednesday and won’t resume baseball activities for 10 to 12 weeks, Adam Berry of MLB.com tweets. It’s the second time Gonzalez has undergone surgery as a Pirate. The offseason acquisition from last winter underwent a procedure in April to repair a fractured left clavicle, which was one of multiple injuries that helped sideline him for the majority of the 2019 campaign. The 28-year-old posted woeful production over the 156 plate appearances he amassed, as he hit .254/.301/.317 with only one home run. He’s projected to earn $800K via arbitration in 2020.

Report: Ben Cherington Front-Runner To Become Pirates’ GM

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Blue Jays vice president of baseball operations Ben Cherington has established himself as the favorite in the Pirates’ search for a general manager, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. Multiple sources have informed Mackey that the Pirates have offered the position to Cherington and are waiting to hear if he’ll accept the job. Whether Cherington or someone else gets the role, expectations are Pittsburgh will “announce a move of some sort on Monday,” Mackey writes.

Cherington is one of four known candidates for the post, joining Pirates assistant GM Kevan Graves, Astros AGM of player development Pete Putila and Brewers AGM Matt Arnold. Graves has been the Pirates’ interim GM since they fired Neal Huntington last month, but even if they don’t promote him, he’s likely to stay in the organization, Mackey suggests.

Should Pittsburgh tab Cherington as its GM, it’ll be getting someone with experience in that capacity. The 45-year-old is best known for his hit-and-miss tenure as Boston’s GM. Cherington succeeded Theo Epstein after the 2011 season and stayed on until his firing in August 2015. The Red Sox did win a World Series in that span (in 2013), but they stumbled to sub-.500 records in each of the other three seasons. As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk previously noted, big-money Cherington signings such as Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez were black marks on his time with the Red Sox, though cornerstones Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers and Eduardo Rodriguez did develop when he was running the show.

While Cherington had a large payroll at his disposal with the Red Sox, that won’t be the case if he joins the Pirates. Pittsburgh’s perennially a low-budget club, one that opened 2019 with a payroll below $75MM. The lack of financial flexibility helped doom Huntington, whose days with the Pirates ended after four straight non-playoff seasons. With that in mind, the Pirates’ next GM is definitely in for a challenge, though that may make the job more appealing to Cherington. He has reportedly bowed out of previous GM searches because of an interest in rebuilding an organization from the ground up.

Latest On Yankees’ Catchers

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Gary Sanchez and Austin Romine have comprised the Yankees’ top two catchers over the past couple seasons. But now that Romine is a free agent, the alignment could change in 2020. However, the Yankees have shown interest in keeping that tandem together. They’ve discussed a new contract with Romine’s agent, Bill Rose of Moye Sports Associates, per Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. It’s unclear whether the two sides have made progress in their talks, but if an agreement doesn’t come together, the Yankees would be comfortable turning to the out-of-options Kyle Higashioka as their backup, according to Hoch.

The soon-to-be 31-year-old Romine is part of a free-agent class of catchers that lacks clear-cut starters after Yasmani Grandal, Jason Castro, Travis d’Arnaud and Robinson Chirinos. Whether a catcher-needy team would sign Romine and give him a shot to start remains to be seen, though he has been a legitimately solid offensive backstop of late. Romine’s bat was borderline unplayable in the majors from 2011-17, but over the past two seasons, he slashed .262/.305/.471 across 505 plate appearances. Defensively, he threw out at least 26 percent of would-be base-stealers in each of those years, placing him around league average. Romine also graded well as an overall defender by Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric in 2018, but he did experience a significant drop-off in that regard this past season.

If the Yankees do retain Romine, there’s no doubt he’ll continue playing second fiddle to Sanchez. While Sanchez has drawn heat from Yankees fans and some who cover the team – particularly for his struggles blocking pitches – general manager Brian Cashman lavished praise on the big-hitting 26-year-old at this week’s GM meetings, according to Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. Cashman acknowledged that Sanchez drew trade interest last offseason, but he doesn’t expect it to happen again this winter because teams know the Yankees aren’t going to deal him.

“I think we have a distinct advantage by having Gary Sanchez as our everyday catcher,” Cashman said. “And I know many in the industry feel the same way by their attempts last year, these extremely smart teams trying to see if they can get their hands on him. They’re not going to ask this year because everybody saw the numbers behind the numbers from last year and they know what he’s capable of. They know he’s a huge difference-maker being able to run him out there behind the plate.”

It’s hard to argue with Cashman, as Sanchez – despite whatever flaws he may have – is an effective player whose three remaining years of control and affordability (he’s projected to earn a reasonable $5.6MM in 2020) add to his appeal. Sanchez slashed .232/.316/.525 with 34 home runs in 446 PA in 2019 en route to 3.1 bWAR/2.3 fWAR. Injuries held Sanchez to 106 games, but he’ll try for a healthier 2020, and it seems like a guarantee that he’ll still be in a Yankees uniform then.

Cubs Rumors: Bryant, Castellanos, Schwarber, Almora

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Star third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant filed a grievance against the Cubs in regards to their decision to call him up to the majors for the first time April 17, 2015 – one day after he’d have been able to work toward a full year of service time. Many viewed it (and still do) as a clear act of service-time manipulation on the Cubs’ part. A decision on Bryant’s grievance could come by next month’s winter meetings, though it’s doubtful he’ll win, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times suggests. Regardless, there aren’t any hard feelings between the two sides, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein and agent Scott Boras indicate in Wittenmyer’s piece. But are the Cubs primed to extend Bryant, who has two expensive seasons of arbitration eligibility remaining? It doesn’t seem any recent long-term talks have occurred, but “Theo and I are talking all the time, and certainly when he and ownership want to discuss anything along those lines, our ears are open, no doubt,” Boras said. The Cubs’ most recent offer to Bryant came “long before” last year “and for much less” than the $200MM-plus the club was rumored to have put on the table, Wittenmyer writes.

Here’s more on the North Siders…

  • While the Cubs aren’t in danger of losing Bryant yet, they are facing the departure of free-agent outfielder Nicholas Castellanos. Although Castellanos starred for the Cubs after they acquired him from the Tigers at the July trade deadline, Chicago’s probably not going to re-sign him, Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic observes (subscription link). Not only is Castellanos likely to end up earning more than the Cubs are willing to spend – MLBTR projects he’ll reel in a $58MM guarantee over four years – but their corner outfield mix may be too crowded to bring him back. The team already has Bryant, Jason Heyward and Kyle Schwarber among its option in left/right.
  • If the Cubs were to retain Castellanos, “they would have to aggressively try to deal Schwarber,” Sharma posits. The Cubs regard them as similar players, according to Sharma, and for good reason. They’re both offensively adept corner outfielders who are arguably defensive question marks. However, the Cubs don’t believe they’d get an appealing enough return for Schwarber to trade him, and they’re reluctant to deal him after the excellent second half he posted in 2019, Sharma hears.
  • More from Sharma, who relays that center fielder Albert Almora’s “a strong possibility” to stay with the Cubs because he lacks trade value. The free-agent market for center fielders is weak, and Almora has three affordable years of arbitration control left. Those factors, not to mention his age (26 in April), could boost his trade value. However, the production Almora recorded in 2019 may offset the positives. He hit .236/.371/.381 with a disastrous minus-0.7 fWAR across 363 plate appearances. Still, Chicago seems unwilling to give up on Almora via trade or non-tender.

Boras On Free Agency, Cole, Strasburg, Castellanos, JDM

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Major League Baseball’s previous couple offseasons didn’t necessarily favor the players. Some free agents sat on the open market far longer than expected, while others signed for less than expected or didn’t receive guaranteed contracts (or any deals) at all. Count the game’s most famous agent, Scott Boras, among those disgusted with the way free agency has gone in recent years, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today details. Speaking at this week’s GM meetings, the always colorful Boras lamented the lack of teams going all-out to win, saying that “the industry is in a competitive hibernation, and the fans are reacting to it,” referring to drops in attendance (as Nightengale notes, even the Nationals, Astros and Yankees drew fewer fans).

“We got a decline in attendance. We got owners charging more for generations that want to see the game, while we’re losing a generation of young people that are only interested in competition,” said Boras. “Clubs feel there are greater rewards for losing than winning. And there is nothing to drive them to win because they don’t think it’s smart.’’

Boras even took aim at current commissioner Rob Manfred, whom he criticized for finding the luxury tax and the present system as a whole “wonderful.” That system, in Boras’ estimation, is “corrupt,” as it fails to “properly place progressive values of players at all. It’s always regressive.”

Of course, Boras’ hope is that the system doesn’t penalize his newest free-agent clients. And he’s representing several prominent players now on the open market, including superstar right-handers Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg and outfielder Nicholas Castellanos. Boras is also the agent for Red Sox J.D. Martinez, who elected against opting out of the remaining three years and $62.5MM on his contract. The agent discussed those clients this week.

In regards to Cole, who looks likely to smash David Price’s record guarantee of $217MM for a pitcher, Boras stated (via Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer): “If this were major-league Christmas, we would be looking at 30 stockings that clearly wanted a lump of Cole. I think starting pitching has become back in vogue. It’s an aggressive market.”

Boras also represents outfielder Bryce Harper, who signed the largest deal ever for a free agent last winter at 13 years and $330MM. He opined that Cole and Strasburg are in line to have even more teams after them than Harper did last offseason, per Breen. And while there has been speculation that Cole, a Southern California native, wants to sign with a West Coast team, that’s not necessarily the case.

“I don’t think geography matters to any of these guys as much as the continuance of winning and being able to achieve their goal of getting that rare ring,” Boras said. “And I think in Gerrit’s case, when you’re that close, you’re looking at this process as one where I’ve got a box to check and I want to go out and put together the best effort to put me in that position to do that.”

You wouldn’t expect Boras to say anything else in this case, as doing so could have decreased his client’s earning power. But, regardless of whatever geographic preference Cole may or may not have, the East Coast-stationed Phillies will heavily push for him, Breen reports. They won the bidding for Harper a year ago, and though general manager Matt Klentak has suggested he’s averse to signing more free agents saddled with qualifying offers (as Harper was, and as Cole is), Cole would greatly help a Phillies rotation in dire need of front-end aid.

The Phillies are among the teams that may be in the market for “a lump of Cole,” but that wasn’t the last of Boras’ holiday-themed metaphors. In regards to Castellanos, he stated (per Patrick Mooney of The Athletic): “Old Saint Nick delivers once a year. Young Saint Nick delivers all season. So you’ve got a pretty good market for that kind of player.”

Whether “young Saint Nick” (Castellanos) really “delivers all season” is debatable. He’s clearly a flawed player, one who has been more good than great at the plate throughout his career and has clearly struggled defensively in the outfield and at third base. Nevertheless, as a 27-year-old who does bring an above-average bat to the table, expectations are that he will fare well in free agency. MLBTR has him landing the eighth-highest guarantee of anyone on the market – a four-year, $58MM deal. 

Martinez is something of a souped-up version of Castellanos, but he’s a half-decade older (32) and perhaps even a less viable defender. No doubt, Martinez would have had difficulty outdoing the money left on his pact had he opted out. Boras addressed Martinez’s decision, saying (via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe): “J.D. wanted assurance of competition at a high level and the fact that he played so well in Boston, we looked at it and with those two things in mind, we wanted to make sure that was the focus and for that reason he decided to opt in. The contract we structured allowed him choices after each season so it was something that, in this year at this time, we felt really that was the best decision.”

As Boras noted, Martinez will have another chance to opt out after next season. In the meantime, Boras is sure to focus his attention on several other clients who – despite his (arguably justifiable) distaste for the current system – could break the bank in the coming months.

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