It has long been wondered just how long the Orioles would manage to keep their best player, superstar third baseman Manny Machado. As the team begins looking ahead to the offseason, his long-term status in Baltimore remains an open question. What’s clear, though, according to a report from Jon Heyman of Fan Rag, is that the O’s won’t look to deal Machado in advance of the 2018 season.
That’s not all that surprising to hear at this point, as all signs from Baltimore have been that the organization will try to regroup and contend next year. But it’s nevertheless notable, as it would appear to take Machado out of serious trade consideration and also position the Orioles as a team that will look to add veteran talent over the offseason.
The Orioles will face quite a few roster questions. In particular, a dreadful performance from the bulk of the rotation will leave the club scrambling to fill a few openings. Doing so in a financially feasible way looks like quite the challenge.
While the organization has only $64MM or so in dedicated payroll for the coming season, that doesn’t include the massive arbitration outlay — Machado, Jonathan Schoop, Kevin Gausman, Zach Britton, and Brad Brach will be expensive — that will surely push the club past $100MM. That probably leaves room to add some salary for starters, but the team will surely be wary of commitments that extend past 2018. Machado, Britton, Brach, and Adam Jones will be free agents and the O’s have already committed quite a lot of cash to underperforming sluggers Mark Trumbo and Chris Davis.
So, could the club look to keep its core intact for a longer stretch by pursuing a new deal with Machado? Per Heyman, it’s not yet clear whether the Orioles will make such an attempt in earnest. The sides were fairly close in prior extension talks, though clearly the situation is quite a bit different now. Machado, who only just turned 25, is one of the game’s very best players and will be just one year away from a potential open-market bonanza. From an outside perspective, it remains difficult to imagine a deal coming together.
Bad decision
They should sell and rebuild. Division is just too tough for them to retool and compete
Why should they sell now? Here’s the reality, the o’s still have Machado under contract for one more year. I would make a run for it next year and if they fall out of it next season trade him at the deadline.
With what? 2 starting pitchers? A shaky bullpen? The O’s already have $94 million on the books for 7 guys for next season when you include JJ, Miley and Castillo who will all be back. Add in another $50-60 million for arbitration for Manny, Britton, Schoop, Gausmann, and Brach. They also have 7 FA they need to replace including 3 starting pitchers.
If the O’s keep Manny they will be fighting for 3rd place in the East in 2018. No matter how much Angelos spends there are too many holes to compete against the Red Sox and Yankees.
Then in 2019, Manny will be gone, Jones will be gone, Castillo will be gone, JJ will be gone, Britton will be gone, Brach will be gone, Miley will be gone, and we will be stuck with Davis and Trumbo and a bottom 10 farm system.
NOW is the time to move Britton and Manny and retool for a run in 2019 and beyond with younger players. We have a good core in Schoop, Mancini, Beckham, Hays, Gausman and Bundy.
JJ is a free agent after this year.
Castillo has a option, that he’s most likely going to decline and go back into free agency.
Miley has an option with a $500k buyout that we are almost certainly going to decline.
2018 is the last year for the foreseeable future that the O’s have a realistic shot at making a run, with Manny, Jones, and Britton all free agents after the season.
We have nobody in the minors capable of replacing Manny at this time…
Nobody in the Majors is capable of replacing Manny.
Nolan Arenado is.
We aren’t going to be able to retool and win with schoop and beckham. Schoop is a Fa the next year unless we extend him. Not sure he’d be open to that idea without Machado. That core you listed isn’t a bad core it’s just that we don’t have anything in the minors to supplement that besides sisco. So I can easily see the argument for one more run. Britton needs to pitch well again or we aren’t going to get a very good return. Brach will bring in a much better haul.
Exactamundoly what uu would eggspect them to say if they were gonna tradem.
This hurt my eyes to read
WTF?!
Huh??? Exactomundoly? WOW??? That hurt more than my eyes.
Oh come on. If you’re going to complain, at least spell it right PK. It’s clearyly ExactAmundoly, not ExactOmondoly.
Is the word in the dictionary Wiggy??? Well if it isn’t, why worry about it?
Nice Wiggy!
Classic!
This looks like a text I would have sent during my gin-drinking days.
lmao
I’m going to try and translate what this guy said: “Exactly. What would you expect them to say if they were going to trade him?”
Have your mommy teach you to spell little boy
The O’s screwed up badly with that Davis extension. That will prevent them from signing Manny long term. Just another in a long line of horrible decisions. Get rid of some of these sluggers and bring in some guys who hit for average. And almost complete makeover of the starting rotation.
Well, they can try to sign Machado the same way they signed Davis – deferred contract.
Add Trumbo to that list of bad contracts. $36 million for 2 guys that should never have been resigned. Davis will haunt the O’s through 2023. At least Trumbo is gone after 2019.
That money would have covered keeping Manny.
He sucks lol, league average bat that plays in a hitters park. If they actual were smart they would traded him last year! Value is a bit down this year…
I wouldn’t say he sucks. He has had a down year this year, but he still hit 30+ homers for the 3rd straight season. Plus his glove is still one of the best in The American League, and one of the best 3rd basemen in the game. He still got a future too, as he’s only 25.
A 4 WAR and that is in a down year. He has 2 seasons already that are above 6 WAR. Players peak from 26-29 and he hasn’t even reached that age yet.
@ imindless?
He’s already managed to place in the top 5 for MVP voting in two separate seasons, and he’s only 25yr-old.
And you think he sucks?
Are you kidding me? Even experts who hate the Orioles admit that Machado is one of the best five players in baseball. How can anyone take anything else you say every in your life seriously after that comment?
just a lame troll, guys. Nothing to see here
Top 5? Mike Trout, Jose Altuve, Bryce Harper, Clayton Kershaw, Paul Goldschmidt, Freddie Freeman are all better. That’s just off the top of my head.
Freeman better than Machado might be arguable to be honest.
As an Indians fan, I honestly think you could make the case that Lindor and/or Ramirez are better too…you might not win that argument, but you’d at least have one
Harper is not a top 5 player either. #37 in war this year and worse than Machado in 2015 and 2016. Harper is a average or worse outfielder. He is over-hyped because he throws his helmet off as he rounds the bases.
Trout, Altuve, Arrenado, Goldschmidt, Scherzer
Average or worse at fielding that is for Harper.
Big mistake.
Keeping Britton and now Machado is going to set this franchise back with their bad farm system.
Ranked #15 in the latest rankings. So average farm system, not bad.
We were ranked 23rd to start the season and 16th now by MLB. BA has the O’s much lower. 27th to start the season and 24th now. BP had the O’s 26th to start the season and 24th now.
Literally, no one including that clown at ESPN, has us ranked 15th.
Beyond Cisco and Hays, there are no great prospects in the system. A couple of meh guys that could contribute as regulars, but no one with All Star potential beyond those 2.
Again people downvoting the FACTS. Why? Does it scare you to know what is real? Those are the facts. Deal with it. Our farm system stinks.
calling Cisco and Hays “great prospects” is even a stretch, chances are only one of them becomes even a league average player…
Bleacher Report has them literally ranked #15 after having them literally ranked #25 before the season.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2731819-re-ranking-all-30-mlb-farm-systems-at-the-end-of-2017s-milb-season
PS being ranked 16th would also literally be average where there are 30 teams ranked.
Without any other dog in this fight, Bleacher Report is not a reputable farm ranking organization.
Austin Hays was named one of the 5 finalists for MILB player of the year by Baseball America. The guys who win this award are usually a stretch to be league average players. See recent winners below.
2011: Mike Trout
2012: Wil Myers
2013: Byron Buxton
2014: Kris Bryant
2015: Blake Snell
2016: Yoan Moncada
2017: Ronald Acuña (!!!)
This makes almost no sense unless the Orioles plan on contending next season. But I don’t think the are gonna be contenders with only 2 reliable starters and a mediocre bullpen. If they trade Machado they can at least get 3 To 4 top prospects. They could use some help in that farm system when all they got is Chance Sisco and Austin Hays to look forward to. Machado needs to go if the Orioles want to contend in the future.
I think “3 to 4” top prospects is high. If they come to believe they can’t /can’t afford to sign him to longer deal, all the team gets from holding onto him in 2018 is one crappy 3rd round draft pick, thanks to new CBA.
Any team which trades for Machado this Winter would assume same risk, so aside from roster boost next season, an acquiring team isn’t going to swap lots of prime talent for Machado. Probably one top prospect who’s close to ready, and one A or AA level prospect who is a longer shot.
That’s a better return than the 3rd round pick, and the $15M or so saved can be used to sign pitching. Move Schoop to 3B and find a 2B (much easier task). If the Orioles truly believe an extension is out of the question, then trading makes sense.
Manny will bring back 3-4 top prospects. 2 that are elite prospects and a couple others in the top 20-30 for the team that would be getting Manny. Pretty much every writer and every GM or former GM interviewed agrees on that. The only person that doesn’t see the wisdom of trading Manny in the offseason is Angelos. Unfortunately for us, that is the guy that makes the final decisions for the O’s.
Not that much talent for what could well be a one-year “rental”. No team would exhaust their minors for that much risk.
Don’t argue with me. Go hit Orioles Rumors and read the articles. Go watch MLB Network. The projected return for trading Manny this offseason is consistent among them all. 2 top guys and a couple of others that are still top 20-30 on that team’s board. That is what a guy that has put up 2 seasons of 6 plus WAR before he turned 25 is worth on the market even if he is a 1-year rental. Look at what the Yankees got for Chapman. Manny is worth more. Much more.
You can downvote the truth all you want, but even 10 minutes research will tell you what everyone is saying Manny is worth. MORE than the Chapman rental and of that there is no question. No one with even half a brain would try to argue otherwise. 2 elite prospects is the start of negotiations.
kinda like the JD trade….oh wait…lol. I see something like the JD deal coming for Manny. pitching is much more valuable at the trade deadline, even a “half-brain” like me knows that. why trade your farm system when you can pick a bat up off the waiver wire. Happens just about every year. teams trade good prospects for pitching in the post season not bats.
Really? A bat like his that comes with elite D at two positions none the less does not come from the waiver wire. He will get 300 or maybe even 400 for a reason and it’s not because he is a waiver pickup.
You’re using logic, don’t you know logic doesn’t run in the Baltimore organization?
Unless you hear this from the horses mouth than you can bet your paycheck this is not a fact. We all know the old man intends to leave the team to his kids. They want Manny or a contender beyond 2018. So expect this statement to be an opinion and not a fact.. This statment above does not say Dumpster Dan says so. Nor does it say Angelos says so. We all know Angelos will go above Dumpster Dan to deals on his own. So look for Machado news by the 2nd week of December.
Not agreeing or disagreeing, but aside from Heyman citing “rivals” of the Orioles, this is the main attribution to the premise of the story:
“One Orioles person said in regard to their intention not to trade Machado, ‘It would take us 35 years to find another player like him.’”
So there you have it. An “Orioles person”, for what it’s worth.
Why do I think this is an owners decision not a GM decision?
Because we know Angelos.
Heck there are at least 3 to 5 teams that would be willing to give up young talent for a guy who plays plus defense at 3rd, can hit 30 bombs and 100 RBI’s. I’m sure the Braves, Cardinals, Marlins, or Yankees would all be interested
Machado stays, and out the window go half the trade proposals from fans of the Cards and Braves.
I mean it makes sense for both teams. Not 100% sure about the Braves but for the Cardinals and Yankees who could both use him in the hot corner. Yet again the Yankees will probably wait until 2019 to sign him
*2018
The Braves would be insane to trade top prospects for a free agent to be while not even being a .500 team. The Marlins got nothing to offer and the Yankees will try Gleyber Torres at 3B next year.
Please tell MLBTR that, I keep seeing Jason Martinez link Machado to ATL like Machado is the last piece of the puzzle that includes Teheran, Folty, Dickey, Newcomb, and other unproven rookies in the rotation.
I can see the Yankees putting together a package around Torres and other top prospects for Machado. Yankee would prefer the sure player when competitive. But I doubt the deal ever happens since they’re both in the same division.
Who do the Marlins have to trade for Manny? Not many farm systems worse than the Marlins. They would have to trade good players from their major league roster to get a deal done.
He’s well worth a bunch of top prospects. However, unless they trade him to someone who has a chance to sign him, I don’t see anyone paying that price for one year of Manny and stripping their future to do it.
Times in sports is changing people don’t want to trade and will keep young guys and wait for free agency.
not really. Everyone trades, its just the Orioles arent gonna tip their hand and say they’re shopping Machado
If O’s are out of it in July next year I’m sure they’ll listen on any player other than maybe Mancini, Gausman, Bundy, and Schoop. Given their clear need to fill 3 rotation spots at once, it’s hard to imagine they’ll lay out big $$$ necessary to actually upgrade over Miley, Jimenez, and Tillman. Dan Duquette has his work cut out for him – good luck.
They will attempt to trade him at the deadline next July, only to pull him back at the last minute and leave other teams frustrated.
I’d say there’s about an 80% probability that you are exactly right about that. What will happen next is they’ll keep him thru 2018, offer him the QO (which he’ll decline, naturally), and then they’ll have nothing but a draft pick from the compensatory round in 2019 to show for it. I totally see that happening.
New QO rules, the pick they gain isn’t even necessarily that high. Do the Orioles get revenue sharing monies?
Yes the Orioles get revenue sharing and are below the luxury tax and as Machado would likely get well over $50 million the pick would be after the 1st round.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/08/offseason-primer-the-new-qualifying-offer-rules.html
Small sample but not good in post season
Small sample, but the padres aren’t either.
Neither is Kershaw. Would still take him on my team.
As long as Angelos owns our team, we are never going to do what is needed to truly compete in the AL East. Players will be resigned after one good season because they owner wants the PR and then flop again and again. Players that could be traded to retool the entire farm system will be held on to. Our IFA money will be traded away for a bag of rosin every year.
Everyone rips on cards fans for make offers but this is the deal I see them making. Piscotty, Weaver, and Hudson. Weaver has killed it since being called up and Hudson was Cards pitcher of the year this year. That’s two MLB ready players and one that will at least start at AAA. Cards offered Price and Heyward 200 million. Make the trade and offer him 300 million
No. Keep the prospects and throw the 300 at him in the off season. I would not make that trade for a rental with the way weaver has played in the majors this year. If machado has years of control then absolutely.
Does Chris Davis need glasses? He really has issues picking up the pitch. Love his swing but hate to see him watching strike three go by so often.
Why would any GM tell people he intends to trade a young superstar? They’d get screwed in every trade if the other side knew that. So, this is fake news. We do not know the Orioles intentions.
We know their intentions. Do the dumbest thing possible. They have a good track record of that.
Good now we can stop having people say these crazy trade scenarios where the braves give up half the farm for one year of machado.
Amen!!!
The O’s needs to totally rebuild. Get rid of all there high priced players and contracts and start all over
Can’t the other MLB owners do something to get rid of Peter Angelos?
Hey you guys can have Valbueno and Skaggs for Trumbo. What do you say?
That sounds awful if you’re an angel fan
Orioles need to take some notes from The White Sox. A team with an average farm system, and ok line-up and rotation, but nowhere near ready to contend. Take nearly all the players that are worth a fair amount, and trade them to restock the farm system. Machado, Britton, Jones, Davis, and Trumbo should be traded, and get top prospects in return
I don’t hate the idea of trading machado I’m not sure who said we would get 2 top prospects because every thing I saw at the trade deadline was 1 top elite prospect a few lower caliber or a young guy already in the bigs. We could trade Britton and beach for a couple mid to higher end prospects but that’s it. No one is gonna give up anything for jones and with the contracts that Davis and trumbo have we couldn’t give them away. If we did trade machado and say Britton/brach we could field a decent team still but it would all come down to what pitching g we got in trades or sign that’s it. Also fire duequette put buck in the front office and bring Ripken to run the team lol, that’s a little serious a little joking but I wouldn’t hate it
Oh and another thing, invest in international players
Davis is a 215-230 hitter, getting paid 23 million. He does have good power, and an ok glove, but that’s about it. It’d be hard to get even a mid-caliber prospect out of him.
They made a huge mistake by resigning David and/or Trumbo, now they will probably lose their franchise player