True, the market remains quiet, but perhaps we’re reaching the point where the looming onset of Spring Training will begin to apply some real dealmaking pressure. Here’s the latest chatter:
- The Yankees have had “minimal” contact with potential free-agent infielders, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required). Rosenthal suggests that New York is rather optimistic about its internal options at second and third base, though of course it stands to reason that the club will look hard at a variety of avenues to upgrade. Rosenthal also weighs in on the trade value of Christian Yelich and a few other topics.
- In a separate post, Rosenthal discusses the still-quiet offseason for Scott Boras and his clients. One of the super-agent’s major points of contention this winter has been that top players don’t (as a general matter) simply cease being productive in their early thirties. Over at Fangraphs, Craig Edwards provides some analysis that tends to support Boras’s position. Though massive and lengthy commitments obviously still come with ample risk, Edwards says the data shows that “good players in their 20s are likely to remain good players in their early 30s.”
- It seems that outfielder Carlos Gomez is maintaining contact with the Rangers — even if it requires some extra effort. According to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, Gomez hitched a ride on a helicopter recently to hold a brief face-to-face chat with Texas GM Jon Daniels and others. It still seems there’s a potential match, though perhaps both sides are waiting to see how things look once higher-priority players make their decisions.
- The Blue Jays have expressed some level of interest in righty Chris Tillman, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network (Twitter link). Several other organizations are reportedly eyeing a pitcher who may be the top bounceback candidate on the market. There was nothing at all to like about his 2017 work, but the 29-year-old Tillman has a long history of solid innings and might represent an excellent value if his shoulder can stay fit.
- While the Mets are looking into bolstering their rotation mix, it likely won’t be in a manner that excites the fanbase. Per Mike Puma of the New York Post, on Twitter, the organization is looking to find one or two starters willing to take minor-league contracts. At this point, though, the Mets don’t even have a firm idea of who they’ll go after, per the report. All told, that approach isn’t surprising. After all, the Mets have other more pressing needs and certainly have the talent to fill out a five-man staff, making depth the key need.
- Meanwhile, the Mets seem not to view Mike Moustakas as a plausible free-agent target, Puma notes on Twitter. But the team still thinks it could end up landing Todd Frazier, who’s not an altogether dissimilar player from Moustakas but is expected to command a shorter contract entering his age-32 season.
Emphasis on EARLY 30’s. For someone like JDM, you might see a couple years of surplus followed by a year or two of break even. After year 3 you run a significant risk of being underwater. So if you have a 5 year deal you might view it as 2 good years, one neutral year, and 2 bad years. Go six years and the scale tilts away from being break even for the club and slides heavily in favor of the player.
No question – if JDM was looking for a 3 year deal he would be signed already. I think many clubs are interested in paying for him between his 30-32 seasons. It’s the years after that everyone is balking at … especially at $25MM/year.
It’s the same with Darvish and Arrieta. They are 31 and 32 respectively. That’s only a couple of years of “early 30’s” for either of them. And they want five or more years?
Pitchers peak later than position players. 26-29 for position players vs 28-32 for pitchers.
Got a link for that? The bit about pitchers peaking at 28-32, that is. That players peak at 27 has been around for some time.
link to baseballprospectus.com
Interesting data on “peak” estimations. Pitchers peak K rate early, but ERA lowers til around age 30 and their walk rate is best around age 32. Batter peak on HR rate and OBP around 30, SLG & AVG around 28, walk rate around 32,.
Good stuff. Thanks.
Well put.
Baboosh!
Yeah, I think this is about right. Early reports had Boras looking for a ~$180-200MM deal for JDM? There’s no way for a team to justify the AAV of a deal that large unless it goes out 6 – 8 years. That’s the problem. You might be able to justify the first 3 – 4 years of that deal, but Boras wants a team to take post-age-35 risk, and a lot of it.
I’ll be shocked if any team agrees to do it for a china doll who’s only played more than 120 games twice in his career.
The only thing moose has over Todd is batting average and even then his career average isn’t great as it’s only 0.6 points higher than Frazier’s. He’s a little bit younger but that’s it. I’d rather sign Todd fraizer over moostakas as he will be cheaper
You’re talking about the Mets and not the Yankees I hope…
I’m talking about in general
Neither one is a game changer, that’s why they haven’t signed. The players available will get less money this year and less years than expected at the beginning of the year. I think Frazier willl have to take a one year contract.
If Frazier will take a 1 year contract, you’d have to think that the Yankees would be the favorites of signing him.
Even game changers havent signed. There goes that theory.
They are going with Andujar I bet. He is getting a lot of buzz
Andujars bat is quite good with plenty of power and his defense is no worse than Chase Headley with potential to improve
Is the subscription to Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic recommended as well, or just required?
Lmao
Yes, strongly
Rosenthal’s checks been bouncing.
if Boras is so sure of his age fact, then let his players take 3 year deals
His style is much longer term so teams will have to suck wind on last 2 or 3 years of contract. Wouldn’t it be great if teams could have an opt out clause after 2 or 3 years?
that’s basically how it works in the NFL and it kind of sucks to be honest
Exactly Darkside! Then he can get a huge 1-2 yr deal off of a huge age 32 campaign
I hope the Jays don’t go after Tillman. The Jays need an ace, not a doubtful innings eater. lol.
With their age and injury records, I see Darvish as a solid #2 and Arrieta as a weak #3 and declining fast. Arrieta in my book only gets a 2 yr deal whereas Darvish can go 3. Otherwise the club who signs them longer than those terms is just paying for charity work.
The Jays have a self impose cap of $165 mil and have just under $15 mil left. I be surprised if they sign a pitcher who commands more then $10 mil. I could see them signing someone like Garcia or Tillman and a leftie to the bullpen.
Supposedly the Tigers have shown interest in Tillman. Their ballpark would be more conducive to a comeback than Toronto or Baltimore.
Darvish will 100% get 4+ years.
I would assume he gets at least 4 years
Mets are interested in many players as long as they’re willing to play for a turkey sandwich lunch and sunflower seeds.
Throw in some Big League Chew and you got a deal!
Week-old turkey sandwich, and only if the player agrees to sign a salmonella waiver
Wait a minute guys. According to metseventually, the most underpaid and over performing Mets player each year is bonused a lifetime contract for HairClubForMen hairpieces after they retire. And we are talking about the top of the line Jeff Wilpon model that includes a Mets baseball cap attached with gorilla glue.
Todd Frazier sucks. What are they thinking? I’d rather put Wilmer Flores at 3B his average will be higher
Because we need infielders who can catch the ball and throw out he batter.
To say Todd Frazier sucks, is a joke to be honest. He doesn’t have a high average, I’ll agree to that; but he has good power, gets on base at a pretty high level, plays a pretty good defensive 3B and from all accounts is a very good teammate. To say any player who had 3.4 WAR last year sucks, let’s be serious…
War is a meaningless stag look at some of the guys at the top of list and tell me there that good
J.D. Martinez was 96th in offensive WAR last year.
Jed Lowrie was 37th
With the exception of Tommy Pham (maybe), I’m having a hard time seeing anybody in the top 20 who’s not a fantastic player IMO
And Fangraphs had JD 12th in the offensive measurement that they use for WAR, so I’m not sure where you’re getting 96th from (B-Ref maybe?)
B-Ref also has Martinez above Lowrie. J.D at 26, Lowrie at 39.
he was 96 because it is a counting stat and he missed a large chunk of the season.
WAR isn’t meaningless lmao
“WAR is meaningless” is how people say “I don’t know what WAR is”
so ignore his solid fielding high on base and power just because you dont like WAR. also WAR isnt a pointless stat.
Brilliant idea, and when Wilmer starts throwing the ball into the seats behind first base with his atrocious accuracy from the left side of the infield I’m sure you’ll be glad they didn’t get Frazier. Wilmer is garbage at short and 3b, there’s a reason Ruben Tejada was playing short when they made their post season run in 15 and that guy was garbage too.
Wilmer Flores peaked. Watching him at bat will be a continual disappointment this year.
I bet all GMs are wondering why someone else has hasn’t made a stupid move. It has always happened, until now.
OK. First, if we’re only signing SPs to minors deals, why not Bartolo? Come ooooonnnn! Second, thank god the Mets don’t want Moustakas. He’s not worth the $$ if he gets anything near the estimates. He looked like a classic Mets bonehead overpay going into the off-season. Finally, Frazier at a reduced price/term? Sure, why not? Could certainly use some more pop.
IMO Todd Frazier is at the top of the second tier group of Free Agents JMO
I do not know where that would put his dollar figure but I would think it would be somewhere near 75 % of Mike Moustakas
Now if Moustakas land somewhere other than Kansas City who knows maybe Frazier lands in Kansas City on a one year deal.
If you look around the league where is the true need for a Frazier or a 3rd baseman with a contender or thought to be fringe contender.
Mets are going to sign one more player like Frazier and then wait to see what their pitching looks like at the deadline.
“Meanwhile, the Mets seem not to view Mike Moustakas as a plausible free-agent target,”
Word is he wants to be paid.
The Edwards analysis has some issues.
By the time they reach 30, they are all legit MLB players. The numbers for the 20 year old players are dragged down by the guys who get a shot and never make it. Thus, 30 year old players seem OK by comparison.
If they compared elite 25-30 year olds vs elite 30-35 year olds, the numbers would probably look less comparable.
Mets need a 3B with good hands and a strong arm and Frazier on 2 year deal assuming dollars are market makes a lot of sense.
Problem is: that shifts Cabrera to 2B and I’m not crazy about that at allll. And it also relegates Wilmer to the bench.
I don’t know what teams all of you root for but there are a lot of you saying moose sucks Darvish shouldn’t get a contract more then 3 years Jake is old Frazier is old. I guess all your teams are set your infield is gold your rotation has 5 guys better then all the free agent SP. Even Astros traded for a SP but not any of your teams. A lot of you 2 months into the season are gonna be massively complaining your team didn’t sign one of these guys. And after watching your young 3b go into a slump or your so called young ace or #2 #3 or #4 SP sucks and all of you will be screaming we could of had moose and his 40+ homers or Arietta and this sub 3 era just saying now thinking about it we all will be saying that cause this off-season all the teams had a shot at signing not one but multiple FA. My team still needs a CF and Cain is sitting right there.
Commas are fun
I agree with a lot of that teams are going to get desperate and spring training approaches and they have big wholes on thier teams
Yes, players that are good in their 20s are usually good in their early 30s. So he’s finally backdoor acknowledging why there are issues when you ask for contracts paying them until their mid to late 30s.