J.T. Realmuto‘s name has been at the center of Marlins trade rumors for the better part of a year, but Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill tells Joe Frisaro of MLB.com that he plans to approach Realmuto’s camp about a potential extension this offseason. As it stands, the Marlins control him for two more seasons.
“At the appropriate time, we’ll get to his representative and see if we can do something longer-term than the two years,” Hill said. “That time hasn’t happened yet, but it’s something we definitely want to pursue.”
As a quality young player in an organization known for its habitual sell-offs and rebuilding cycles, Realmuto has been in trade speculation for a few years, but his name emerged in earnest last offseason when new Marlins ownership embarked on the most aggressive tear-down in the past half-decade. Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna and Dee Gordon were all shipped out in separate trades, leaving Realmuto as the last piece of that once-formidable offensive core standing. Understandably frustrated at the time, Realmuto reportedly requested a trade in December. When no deal materialized, his agent, CAA’s Jeff Berry, told Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald in early February that Realmuto still hoped to be traded to a potential contender.
It’s unclear now whether those feelings have changed. The Marlins’ season, as virtually everyone expected, resulted in a last-place finish in the NL East. Miami’s 63 wins were the fewest in the National League and the fourth-fewest in all of baseball, trailing only the Orioles, Royals and White Sox. Outfielders Lewis Brinson and Magneuris Sierra, key prospects acquired in the trades of Yelich and Ozuna, each hit under .200 with OBPs of .240 and .222.
On the other side of the coin, the Marlins did see signs of encouragement from young pitchers Sandy Alcantara (acquired in the Ozuna deal), Pablo Lopez, Trevor Richards and Caleb Smith (before a lat tear ended Smith’s season). Starlin Castro and Derek Dietrich had solid years at the plate, while rookie Brian Anderson quietly enjoyed a terrific debut campaign (.273/.357/.400, 3.9 rWAR, 3.7 fWAR). At the very least, one can imagine Realmuto feeling more optimistic about the team’s outlook than he did a year ago when those names were largely unknown to him.
For the time being, Realmuto’s camp can likely focus on his upcoming arbitration case. The 27-year-old had a career-best season at the plate even though he missed much of the opening month due to a back injury, hitting .277/.340/.484 with 21 homers, 30 doubles and three triples while plating 74 runs. Those numbers should give him a nice platform as he seeks a raise from 2018’s modest $2.9MM salary in his second trip through the arbitration process.
In the case of Realmuto, the timing of the talks will be of particular interest. The majority of offseason extension talks tend to take place in Spring Training, once teams have concluded most of their offseason shopping and once arbitration has been completed. At that point, clubs have a better idea of their long-term payroll outlook than they would when negotiating deals early in the offseason. But if the two sides are far enough apart that an agreement isn’t deemed realistic, Realmuto would once again emerge as a fairly clear-cut trade piece. The Marlins aren’t going to compete in 2019 and likely won’t in 2020, either; if Realmuto can’t be extended, it’s only rational to maximize his trade value.
It’d be more prudent, then, for the two sides to get a general feel of asking price and comfort zones sooner rather than later. That way, if Realmuto’s asking price is simply leagues beyond what the Marlins are comfortable offering, they’d have the ability to market him to other clubs this offseason before those teams have completed their shopping in the spring. With two seasons of club control remaining, a steady progression of improvement both on offense and defense and a still-modest salary, Realmuto would once again become one of the game’s most coveted trade assets. Miami could, of course, elect to carry Realmuto into the 2019 season even if no long-term arrangement can be reached, but doing so only shortens the amount of control an acquiring team would have over him while also welcoming the risk of injury or decline.
Didn’t he already request a trade? Why would he want to sign an extension there? Especially considering they won’t contend for the next 10 years.
You offer him an insane amount of money he may rethink his refusal.
Marlins- we offer you 5 years 100 mill
Realmuto- no wa…..wait what? 20 mill a year? Sign me up!
That wouldn’t be smart. All he’d do in that situation is cost a bunch of money and hurt their draft position for 5 years.
So the Marlins can then trade him after the 2019 season!!
I mean isn’t that what they have always done! Sign someone to a contract/extension and then trade them the next off-season.
And this new regime has not changed that process! They came in and gutted the team right away! Now let’s sign Realmuto to an extension and then trade him, like everyone else! Maybe if it is a team friendly deal they can get a better package!
I think it is more the ownership/front office trying to save face! They offer something and the two sides do not come to an agreement then he is traded this winter…. Hey fans we tried to resign Realmuto and he didn’t want to be here, so we then traded him for the max amount of prospects that we could!
The risk you’re taking though is that negotiations will inevitably go public and if you get a refusal, his value is lowered because MIA will be trying to beat the clock and try to maximize his return. Thry got a decent return for Yelich (not great), but think how better the offers would be had he not made it so public how he wanted out.
5/100m wouldn’t even be close to an offer Realmuto can’t refuse. That’s a lowball.
Back of the napkin:
Realmuto was worth 4.8 Fangraphs WAR last year, and 3.8 in 2017. If we give him a projection of 4.5 next year and subtract .5 for each following year, that works out to 17.5 wins over the next 5 years.
Using a pretty conservative value of $8.5m per win gets you to just a hair under $150m. If you wanted to knock his socks off you’d probably have to get up in the $170m to $180m range.
If you’re talking about tearing up his contract and replacing it for 2019 through 2023, I suppose there’s a bit of a discount for his arb years. If I adjust to pay 60% of FMV for 2019 and 80% for 2020, it comes out to $127m of value.
So maybe you could blow him away with 5/150M. 5/100 is still a lowball though.
Trade him to the highest bidder.
Rockies, Astros, Braves all boast farm capable of acquiring him.
The Dodgers have 3 catchers in their top 30 prospects and Grandal is a free agent. Maybe something works there?
They have to trade him. He’ll be out of his prime when their decent again, terrible use of his value. I honestly think they are just trying to save face for last off-season by having someone left they didn’t trade.
Easy…Marlins are acting engaged to drive his value higher.
Its clear he wants a trade not a rebuild. So drive up the price to see what they get
Jester could trade J.T. and Castro to Yankees for top level prospects.
Jester
Derek Jeter
No, Jester sounds about right.
So does Diller…
LA needs a 2b and a catcher (Grandal) is a FA. They’re loaded in the farm. Maybe a match?
It’s a match, but I just don’t see Castro in LA. Dodgers FO would see him as a younger version of Hanley Ramirez.
Why would they need Castro back? Plus they have Gary Sanchez
Florial, Abreu, Seigler and Adams should do it for JT.
if they offer him 3 years 20M and a team option for 15M, for a total of 4 yrs 35M he probably would take it. Then his trade value would skyrocket even more.
And he’d be giving his services for cheap in his prime years. Why would he want to do that? He can just decline, re-assert his desire to be traded and the Marlins would still get a king’s ransom for him. Then he can negotiate with his new team going forward.
4 years/35M for arguably the best catcher in baseball? Uhhh, no. These guys have a very limited amount of time to have a career, especially catchers. Realmuto isn’t leaving 60 million dollars on the table.
So take a paycut in order to be told where he will play? Why do that when he can choose where he plays in two years and make more money doing it? You so dumb lol
The Marlins have a golden chance to jumpstart a rebuild by trading him. By extending him, you are taking a risk of him getting either hurt or regressing as he gets older. I don’t see why you wouldn’t trade him.
Has to be a maneuver on their part. While it makes sense to keep him to work with young pitchers, the salary and risk are foolish for an organization in the early stages of a rebuild. MIA knows the time to trade him is now while he’s healthy and at the top of his game, and trying to get cute by manufacturing leverage isn’t fooling anyone.
Nationals need a catcher and are willing to give up chips. Not sure if the division rival aspect comes into play here.
Oakland would be a sleeper team for Realmuto.
Potential for LA Dodgers to get in on him.
Darkhorse team: Chicago White Sox. I’m sure they’re happy with Narvarez’s play behind the dish. White Sox have the capital to go in on Machado (3B) and Harper (LF) to go along with their young guys. It would be a gamble. A huge one.
Realmuto giving up prime years to another Marlins rebuild would be wasted talent. Nothing worse than watching a good/great player waste years on a bad team. Not that the two are comparable, but aren’t we watching Trout waste years with the Angels?
Schwarber Almora Happ Contreras and Chatwood with cash for Realmuto and Castro. Get it done Cash oh sorry wrong team.
Don’t you think that’s a little much? Why in the world would they want Castro back?
Cause he can hit in the playoffs unlike those guys. Ok we can keep Almora.
Nah, keep Almora in there cuz it helps offset inexplicably trying to pawn off the dead weight of Chatwood in a deal trying to obtain one of, if not the, best catchers in the league.
But it’s Miami
Fish would fall over themselves to say yes.
Makes sense to trade him, they are only hanging onto him because he’s cheap, if he was on a bigger contract he’d most likely be out the door. In saying that shop him around, Dodgers, Astro’s, A’s would all be in for him, keep the rebuild going Marlins, do it slow and do it properly
Typically im in the field of flip him for prospects, but Catcher is too important to the development of pitchers. Marlins have some good pitchers coming along, JT would maximize them and bring them along quicker. Also, did someone say he would be in his mid 30’s when they are good again?!?! Lmao. Do you guys not know his age? He is 27, turns 28 next march. Meaning, 2019 season at age 28, 2020 season at 29, and 2021 season at 30 which is exactly when they should be competing for NL East title/wildcard. Lock him as long as possible. 8 years 170 if you ask me. He Has a chance to be the Marlins Yadier Molina, or could slide over to 1B as he gets older.
Saying the marlins will be contenders in 3 seasons is very very optimistic.
Is it though? Pitching wins and its looking promising so far but if our current pitching isnt panning out in 3 years then we’re rebuilding again ha. That should be year 1 of starting to compete and if isnt, then this went horribly wrong. Sign VVM this winter, Draft Andrew Vaughn at 1B and Chase Strumpf at 2B in 2019 draft (who will move QUICKLY) and we’ve shored up offense/position players. Brian Anderson, Realmuto, and hopefully Brinson and OF co continue to improve and Marlins have a pretty solid team come 2021.
Everything and them some has to go right if they want to compete in 3 years, and even then it’s not a 100% given.
Nothing is ever a given. Especially in baseball. Nationals and A’s this year. Did anyone truly believe thats how their seasons would go. But what ive learned is im right about 80% of the time and 98% of people on here have absolutely no idea what they are talking about and are just average joe fans talkin out their a$$.
You being right 80% of the time doesn’t change the fact that The Marlins are more than 3 years away from contention.
Although it makes sense to trade for a huge return. However…
“He Has a chance to be the Marlins Yadier Molina, ”
This what I prefer we do by signing JT longterm. He’s THE leader and star of the team.
What in our system makes you think it will.be 3 years? Is it the “amazing” return for 5 years of Yelich on an amazing contract? Or is it all of the young guys in the system that are constantly injured or haven’t done much of anything?
Lol. You were probably also the fan that comlained about Realmuto as a prospect because his bat wasn’t coming around like they had hoped and that raw power failed to show up year in and year out. And now here are, and you want a kings ransom for JT. Ironic. Minor league stats dont tell the whole story. Gotta understand and look beyond.
To answer your question, what we saw with: Richards, Lopez, Alcantara, Yamamato, Brigham, Neidert, Dugger, Gallen, Luis, etc was better than anticipated and we dont need all of them to pan out. Chances are Braxton Garrett is the real deal too, he’ll be healthy next season. Not to mention all the pitchers that step up over the next 3 years that surprise us or get drafted and move quickly.
Positon player wise: Much weaker, but also easier to draft out of college and get them in the majors in a year or two. Sign Victor victor mesa, we have brian anderson, JT, one of the other outfielders will pan out at least, draft wisely. I brought up Vaughn. He could go from being drafter #4 next summer to starting for the marlins by end of 2020/beginning of 2021. His bat is very advanced. Chase Strumpf, older college player, advanced bat, average defense at 2B. Jose Devers is lighting it up, he will be starting SS in 3 years. And now you have your lineup. Young and inexperienced but with an experienced rotation, can definitely win some games. I think 2022/2023 could be the Great years tho.
Way to assume stuff…Pablo Lopez, Trevor Richards, and Caleb Smith (assuming he comes back from injury) is a start for the rotation, but everyone else…I’m interested in Neidart and Gallen as potential #4 type starters, with some potential for a bit more, but everyone else seems like a reliever for me. Too early to tell, but it’s not exactly a gluttony of talented arms. Ideally, you would want to find someone to put in front of all those guys in the rotation, and then someone that can go in the middle, and I dont thonk the Marlins have those guys in the system right now. As for the previously injured/young arms in the lower minors, I cant say anything about them right now with them being so far away from the big leagues
The Marlins traded 2 of the only 3 guys I would have kept (the 3rd was Realmuto). 2 MVPs. Maybe you disagree with my feelings about Stanton and the return there. Fine. Ignore that. There was zero reason to move Yelich, at least for that type of return, and you can go back and see what I had said about trading guys a year before it happened, and know it’s not hindsight. That significantly pushes back a rebuilding effort that could have put us where you think we’ll be in 2-3 years. I have faith this ownership will do the right things when that time eventually comes, but they handled so much wrong since they took over, and a lot of it is reminiscent of early Loria and Sampson, with their insulting of the fans intelligence and other odd stories. Right now, we’re hoping to get lucky with a couple of young guys, and hoping to add some impact in the draft. That will dictate how things go. I assumed theyd get 25 cents on the dollar for Realmuto anyway, so this news doesnt effect me as much as questioning certain previous things. I dont think they can retool this in the 3 years you mentioned anymore. For me, I think it will be 5-7 at minimum. Maybe they get lucky though
I can Appreciate that response. I agree with the Yelich trade, that one hurt. I wasn’t opposed to trading him but i was hoping got 2 sure things + 2 high upside guys. We got zero sure things in return although all 4 had fairly high upside but thats not enough for Yelich. You’re right, we’ve gotten lucky with most of the pitchers i mentioned as none of them were very heralded prospects. But i saw some major jumps in most of them. I’m excited, trying to stay positive and truly believe JT is a very key component of this rebuild and it happening sooner rather than later. Pitchers will grow bc of him.
With that said, there is ONE team that has any interest at all that i would consider trading him to. Thats the Astros and its all because of one thing you said that i whole heartedly agree with and thats that we dont have an ACE. I would love to get out hands on Forrest Whitley to lead our future rotation. So JT for Forrest Whitley, Yordan Alvarez, and either Garret Stubbs or Brandon Bielak is what i would want. Maybe we add a reliever and get both Stubbs and a pitcher.
Once we traded Yelich last year, I was thinking Colorado and Houston for Realmuto. I’d probably add a couple of teams to that list, but I would say that we’re essentially looking for a similar return for him. I’d prefer high upside pitching, as you mentioned, and I’d want 1 or 2 up the middle prospects in a Realmuto trade, although with 1 fewer year of control, and the Marlins trade history, I wouldnt hold my breath
I’m probably more upset, and that’s probably the light way of saying it, that they didnt move certain relievers when they had the chance. I wanted to trade Barraclough last year, and cant believe they didnt move him in june. Bullpen arms is one of the only things we actually have some depth in the organization in
As for the arms, I’m going to reserve judgment for the most part. If Alcantara can be a Henderson Alvarez type, when he was going good as a SP, that would be a big deal for us, and I’ve read a lot of good things about Edward Cabrera in the last 2 years. We also have some talent in the lower minor leagues, but they’re far away at the moment. I’m hoping they dont waste this opportunity in the draft, as they’ve done countless times in the top few rounds the last several years. A lot of their picks were bad at the time, in my opinion, and that’s another thing I can say without hindsight. This draft is a big deal in getting more talent into the organization, and hopefully they actually go into the international market next year as well to get a such talent in the organization as possible
With ya there. Tyler Kolek was a headscratcher before they even drafted him. I wanted Rodon that year, granted he didnt pan out like i thought either ha. But our drafting had some atrocious years. I liked this years draft, at least every pick after connor scott, im not sold on him yet.
Next years draft has some damn good college bats, which luckily is exactly what we need. Here’a to hoping they do it the right way. Sign victor victor this winter and start to be real players in international market like you said.
I wanted Rodon or Aaron Nola. I felt like Nola was safer than Kolek and would at least be a #3 SP, and I liked him as a potential #2; didnt know he’d be this good though; and I had said before the draft I saw Kolek falling to between 7 and 11, and really didnt want the Marlins to take him, although I felt he was the type of guy they’d pick. When Rodon was still on the board, I was worried about the money situation, so if they weren’t going to go with him, I liked the safe college arm in Nola. It theoretically looked potentially amazing at the time to have 2 Cuban Americans in Miami #1-2 from both sides, but that didnt happen, and as you said Rodon hasnt entirely lived up to anything yet, although he is on the right track now, and either would have been a better asset, or useful rotation piece the last several years. As bad as the drafts have been though, you cant forget about the abhorrent trades that have been made over however many years now that killed our farm system/depth
As for Connor Scott, I’m worried about a hitch in his swing, and it bothers me that they kind of drafted a potential remedial Yelich, after moving the actual thing as they did. Maybe that’s just saltiness
Oh Gawd, the trades, its hurt to talk about Chris Paddack, Naylor, Desclafani, Castillo, trever williams, the list goes on! For absolutely nothing in return.
Yep, that hitch gets brought up a lot and even i see it. Just a kid so hopefully thats fixable. But yeah, i think thats why i was butthurt too, Yelich’s dont grow on trees and they were reaching trying to
Find the next one when they had one locked up for 5 more years already. Dumb. You might think im crazy but i really really wanted Trevor Larnach at #13 for us. Most would call it a reach but i have a feeling About that guy.
Looking at the Dodgers, i would be ok with a JT deal with them. Maybe JT and Barraclough for Ruiz, Lux, Santana and Rios. If they probably wouldnt go for it but maybe if you switched out Santana for Gonsolin.
I’d have to go back to see who I was hoping for in the draft this year, although I remember there being multiple guys on the board. Last year, after Shane Baz went right in front of us, I was interested in David Peterson in that first round, and he ended up with the Mets, so of course he’ll be someone we end up facing for a long time in the middle of that rotation.
I wish those were the only trades I was talking about too lol. As for a return for Realmuto, I cant speculate anymore b/c the Marlins version of trade value is totally different than the rest of the league. I also dont think the Dodgers are trading Ruiz
I wanted Faedo in 2017.
They definitely wont trade Lux, which kills the deal for me. They should let us fans be GM for a year, what could go wrong.
The Marlins are the only team I ever definitively think that way with, knowing how much goes into that job besides your own evaluations
Marlins saying the right things to keep Realmuto’s value as high as possible, but I believe the smart move is to listen to offers over the Winter and if overwhelmed by an offer make the deal. Catcher’s careers on average are shorter than any other infield and OF position and stats begin to decline after age 28. If Marlins can acquire 4 or 5 legit prospects including a top rated catcher then it should trade Realmuto.
Braves are a natural trade partner.
Dodgers and Nats as well. With Grandal headed to FA after the WS and the Dodgers loaded with top level catching, pitching, and OF prospects to offer.
Ian, waters, Byrse, and Contreras should do it.
Don’t do it. You’ll be traded ASAP.
Traded away from Miami?! I’m sure that would break his heart.
Gary Sanchez, Sonny Gray, and Clint Frazier, for Realmuto
This… isn’t terrible? I don’t think you’d need to include Gray either – he has only one more year of control, and Miami probably wouldn’t be that interested.
Realmuto would give the Yankees the best catcher in the game for the next 2 years. Sanchez, although terrible this year, has the ability to be one of the best catchers in the game for the next 4 years.
The Yankees might want to trade potential for certainty, and they certainly have the ability to extend Realmuto.
I’d probably start with a lesser prospect than Frasier.
Not sure why the Fish would want Gray. Or why the Fish would except lesser prospects. Gary, Frazier/Florial and Abreu should get it done.
Would not give a long contract to a catcher who will be 28 next season, 4-5 years max. I think the Braves could make an offer worth looking at and the Marlins could acquire some pitching prospects who will contribute down the road.