In addition to trying to pass Greg Garcia through waivers yesterday — Garcia was claimed by the Padres — the Cardinals also put catcher Francisco Pena through outright waivers, tweets Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post Dispatch. Pena, unlike Garcia, cleared waivers (as also noted on the team’s transactions log) and will become a minor league free agent.
The 29-year-old Pena registered career-highs in games played (58) and plate appearances (142) this past season while filling in for the injured Yadier Molina. Long regarded as a glove-first option behind the plate, Pena managed just a .203/.239/.271 batting line in his time with the Cards. He’s a career .252/.296/.452 hitter in 1376 plate appearances at the Triple-A level, though, and he’s controlled the running game well in the minors even if he struggled to do so in his limited run with St. Louis. He’ll surely latch on somewhere this offseason on a minor league deal, as there’s never enough catching depth to go around in the Majors and he’s a viable third or fourth option to bring up to the big leagues in the event of injuries.
So I’m guessing Kelly will be the backup?
No They’ll bring in some AAAA guy to compete with him and I won’t be shocked if he’s traded
I guess backups don’t really matter when you got Yadi behind the plate lol
I’m hoping Kelly gets traded while he still has some value. Kinzner (sp?) is a lot better hitter. I understand he improved tremendously in the Cardinals AAA on his defense. So, I hope Kinzner is brought up to back up Yadi, plus bringing a good bat off of the bench.
Kelly is a far better defender by all reports of their minor league track records. Also, Carson has done better offensively at higher minors levels the last 2 seasons as well. His BB% is way better than Knizer and they both barely strike out. Knizer was ok at AAA but had a very unsustainable BABIP. I’d honestly much rather sell high on Knizer if given the choice, since he has a similar offensive ceiling without the defensive pedigree. I think Kelly is more likely to be successful in MLB as a league average-ish bat with above average to great defense. That’s basically what Molina has made a potential HOF career out of.
This makes a lot of sense and I didn’t think to look at it that way.
I’m guessing just clearing up 40 man space before the Rule 5 draft.
I could see Kelly getting traded and Knizer becoming the backup. Kelly has done well in the minors but nothing all that impressive in the majors, at least when you’re comparing to Molina. Knizer has more offensive potential than Kelly.
That or they sign a low tier free agent catcher to fill in a few games. Molina played in 123 games last season which is pretty impressive considering he took a 102 MPH fastball to the berries and was out for a while.
He’s had 0 consistent playing time and like 130 PA scattered over the last 3 seasons in MLB. It’s lunacy to make any judgement on his future based on that. Knizer’s defensive ceiling is likely average to just below, which would mean his bat will have to carry him. His offensive numbers haven’t been any better and are less sustainable than Kelly. Kelly BB and K % were identical at AAA this year (13.8%). That’s an elite BB rate to go with lots of contact and an elite defensive profile. His floor is way higher than Knizer.
I understand putting Pena on waivers. However, I can’t understand putting Greg Garcia on wavers. Despite his average, Garcia worked very well off the bench as a contact hitter. Also, he can play every defensive position. Wouldn’t he have been a better trade candidate rather than putting him on waivers and getting nothing at all back???
He just didn’t have much value. He’s an out of options, utility infielder, singles hitter with a decent on-base and no power. You could argue him hitting left handed would be a plus for the cards cause they don’t have many lefties, but Munoz is clearly a better hitter and can play infield and outfield. I personally liked him, but I agree with the move.
The trouble is, Kelly deserves to be in the majors, but also deserves to play everyday. Yadi, for better or worse, is going to catch almost every pitch until he proves he can’t. I would love to see BOTH Knizner and Kelly on the MLB roster in 2019. Kelly was drafted as a 3B and Knizner played some middle infield in college. One could get playing time in the infield and still have the other backing up Yadi for that day. It’s not ideal for their development defensively, but neither has much left to prove in the minors.
I disagree. I don’t think Kelly has done anything to deserve to be in the majors, let alone play every day. Really good defender, but his career minor league slash line is .255/.324/.380 in 622 games. That’s not very good. Plus, his Major League slash line is .154/.227/.188 albeit in only 63 games. He’s just never been a good hitter. Defensively he’s good. He has a .993 career fielding % at C. He’s made 24 errors in about 3600 chances. Also thrown out 32% of base stealers. Obviously he’s not Yadi, but he can handle himself behind the plate. Early in his career he played 3B, first year I believe, and did pretty decent, but still you don’t want a MLB 3rd basemen who can’t hit for power, and Kelly hasn’t hit for power at all, barely hit for average in the minors.
Now Knizner on the other hand, great hitter. His career minor league slash line is .310/.373/.460. Miles better than Kelly. Kelly has never hit over .300 in a season, Knizner has never hit under .300 in a season. Granted Kelly has played a few more years than Knizner. Knizner also doesn’t have much power, He hit 18 doubles and 7 Homers this year, still better than Kelly who hit 14 doubles and 7 Homers, so their about even when it comes to power.
On defense, Knizner has a career .995 fielding %. He’s made 8 errors in about 1500 chances. So in terms of not making errors, they’re pretty close. In terms of caught stealing, Knizner has thrown out 34% of base stealers, which is higher than Kelly but of course, based on fewer chances. Knizner has 22 career passed balls, Kelly 32, but of course Kelly has played a few more years, so that puts Kelly ahead in that category.
Point is, Knizner and Kelly have been pretty similar defensively in their minor league careers. Of course Knizner still has a few years to get even with Kelly in service time, but so far, he and Kelly have been even. Neither have a lot of power, but Knizner can hit for average, and has in each of his first 3 minor league seasons. For this reason, I like Knizner more than Kelly. I think Kelly is closer to being ready, defensively and maturity wise, but I think Knizner will be the better overall player than Kelly.
Look at what they’ve done at the upper levels of the minors over the last 3 years offensively. Kelly has taken major steps forward and has far greater plate discipline to go with similar offensive output and a much more sustainable OBP heavy hitting profile. Knizer is more BABIP dependent and has plateaued a bit since hitting the upper levels. Kelly’s MLB track record at this point is irrelevant, due to laughably small sample being referenced. It took Yadi 5-6 years to be even a league average hitter in MLB. Minor league catcher defensive stats are not very useful, especially errors. Kelly’s floor is much higher than Knizer with a similar if not better ceiling.
Knizner has been a minor league player for 3 years; he was drafted in 2016. … a NC State 3rd baseman who transitioned to catcher his sophomore year, so he had only been catching for 2 years when he was drafted.
Kelly has been with the Cardinals for 6 years …. he was drafted in 2012… He transitioned to catcher in the 2013-14 off season.
Kelly has had 6 years in the Cardinals system to develop his bat and his catching abilities.. Kninzer has had 3 years to do the same..
Bottom line for me is the reality that Knizner has improved and batted over .300 at EVERY LEVEL in 3 years with the Cardinals, while Kelly has never batted above .300 in his 6 years with the Cardinals.
Kelly may be slightly ahead of Knizner defensively, but with the way Knizner has progressed and moved though the system, that may not be for long. A catcher who can ALSO hit may be the more valuable commodity in the long run. Tough choice the Cardinals will probably need to make soon. I personally would vote for Knizner to back-up Yadi. Truth be told, Knizner would probably be a more highly pursued trade consideration by other organizations, too!
Ur totally right here. Knizner has shown MUCH more offensive promise than Kelly probably ever will. The defense is close enough that I don’t think it will end up making that much of a difference in the end.
That “far superior batting eye” comment is laughable….. Maybe glasses would help both of you. A pair may help Kelly see the ball to make better contact. For you, I suggest something other than rose colored. Like I stated earlier, a catcher who can ALSO hit is more likely to be the more valuable commodity.
Good idea, though….. we can talk this time next year and see where the chips have fallen.
For the record, I have not glossed over the “defensive pedigree”…. I am just not as blinded by it as you happen to be. I stated from the beginning that Kelly is probably better defensively…. BUT I also stated that IF Knizner continues to progress like he has done thus far, Kelly might need to start worrying if he is going to be the “heir apparent”. That message was clear when Kelly was sent back to the minors to get his batting cleaned up two weeks before Spring Training Camp ended in 2018… while Knizner remained at camp though the end of Spring Training.
I HAVE made the point several times that a catcher who can ALSO HIT may be the more valuable commodity. Kelly’s had 6 years in the minors to the figure out a way to improve his bat…. and it just has not happened..
OFFENSIVELY, Knizner HAS outperformed Kelly, One only has to look at the stats for each payer at the SAME LEVEL prove that point.
Rookie Year @ Johnson City
C. Kelly (2012/56 games) AV = .225 OBP = .263 SLG = .399 OPS = .662
Knizner (2016/53 games): AV = .319 OBP = .423 SLG = .492 OBP = .915
Low A Peoria
C. Kelly (2013/43 games) AV = .219 OBP = .288 SLG = .301 OPS = .590
C. Kelly (2014/98 games) AV = ..248 OBP = .326 SLG = .366 OPS = .692
Knizner (2017/44 games): AV = .279 OBP = .325 SLG = .480 OBP = .805
AA Springfield
C. Kelly (2016/64 games) AV = .297 OBP = .338 SLG = .403 OPS = .740
Knizner (2017/51 games): AV = .324 OBP = .371 SLG = .462 OBP = .833
Knizner (2018/77 games): AV = .313 OBP = .365 SLG = .434 OBP = .800
AAA Memphis
C. Kelly (2016/32 games) AV = .292 OBP = .352 SLG = .381 OPS = .733
C. Kelly (2017/68 games) AV = .283 OBP = .375 SLG = .459 OPS = .834
C. Kelly (2018/83 games) AV = .269 OBP = .378 SLG = .395 OPS = .773
Knizner (2018/17 games) AV = .315 OBP = .383 SLG = .407 OPS = .791
Arizona Fall League
C. Kelly (2016/ 21 games) AV = .286 OBP = .387 SLG = .455 OPS = .842
Knizner (2017/17 games) AV = .358 OBP = .403 SLG = .537 OPS = .940
There’s your evidence that Knizner trumps Kelly offensively, .chump! At every level of play, too!
I didn’t make any reference to seasons prior to Knizer being drafted because of course I’m sure you’re aware that Carson was drafted out of high school as a 3rd baseman and NOT a catcher, so his early development years were largely spent learning the nuances of the position, largely at the expense of his offensive development. He’s only 6 months older despite being in the system that much longer. Of course as you look at his stat lines starting from 2016 when he took offensive steps forward and has been really good at AAA the last two seasons, without the benefit of an inflated BABIP.
Please explain to me why Kelly is ranked in the top 3 catching prospects in MLB and also ranked in the top 100. Where’s Knizer at? I’m sure you know better than Sickels, Fangraphs, Keith Law, etc.
mlb.com/news/francisco-mejia-leads-top-catching-pr…
calltothepen.com/2018/04/09/mlb-top-prospects-2018…
fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-100-prospects/
Just in case my old school data is not enough for you, here is a sabrametric overview comparing the two players at the same level..(There are no State College or Palm Beach stats included because Knizner was hitting so well that he jumped those levels.)
BABIP STATS
Johnson City Rookie Year
CK .228 (2012)
AK .331 (2016)
Peoria
CK .248 (2013)
CK .274 (2014)
AK . 282 (2016)
Springfield
CK .339 (.2016)
AK . .355 (2017)
AK . 339 (2018)
Memphis
CK .340 (2016)
CK .304 (2017)
CK .299 (2018)
AK .370 (2018)
ISO STATS
Johnson City Rookie Year
CK .174 (2012)
AK .173 (2016)
Peoria
CK .082 (2013)
CK .118 (2014)
AK . 201 (2016)
Springfield
CK .116 (.2016)
AK .137 (2017)
AK . 121 (2018)
Memphis
CK .088 (2016)
CK .176 (2017)
CK .126 (2018)
AK ..093 (2018)
BB STATS
Johnson City Rookie Year
CK 4.4% (2012)
AK 9.5% (2016)
Peoria
CK 7.7% (2013)
CK 8.9% (2014)
AK 4.7% (2016)
Springfield
CK 5.9(.2016)
AK 6.9% (2017)
AK 7.3% (2018)
Memphis
CK 8.7% (2016)
CK 11.8%(2017)
CK 13.8% (2018)
AK 6.6% (2018)
K’s STATS
Johnson City Rookie Year
CK 14.7% (2012)
AK 9.5% (2016)
Peoria
CK 14.9% (2013)
CK 13.0% (2014)
AK 11.5% (2016)
Springfield
CK 19.5% (.2016)
AK 13.4% (2017)
AK 12.8% (2018)
Memphis
CK 13.5% (2016)
CK 14.3% (2017)
CK 14.8% (2018)
AK 13.1% (2018)
wOBA STATS
Johnson City Rookie Year
CK .298 (2012)
AK .420 (2016)
Peoria
CK .280 (2013)
CK .321 (2014)
AK . 360 (2016)
Springfield
CK .336 (.2016)
AK .373 (2017)
AK . 358 (2018)
Memphis
CK .322 (2016)
CK .370 (2017)
CK .350 (2018)
AK .360 (2018)
wRC+ STATS (100 = league average)
Johnson City Rookie Year
CK 81 (2012)
AK 156 (2016)
Peoria
CK 69 (2013)
CK 100 (2014)
AK . 120 (2016)
Springfield
CK 115 (.2016)
AK 133 (2017)
AK 119 (2018)
Memphis
CK 98 (2016)
CK 120 (2017)
CK 107 (2018)
AK 114 (2018)
Neither old school stats or sabermetrics, blatantly indicate that Kelly is the better offensive player. I am sticking to my opinion that Knizner is the more valuable commodity because the stats show he CAN hit, My opinion is based on how I have seen these two play ball….. and on data straight from Fangraphs.com.. Until you can show me your “special data” to prove otherwise, I am sticking to my opinion.
Fangraphs rankings: #73
fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2018-prospect-li…
Sickles take on things::
minorleagueball.com/2018/7/23/17605270/st-louis-ca…
redbirdrants.com/2018/07/03/st-louis-cardinals-kni…
The links you provided are nearly a year old… and a lot can change within a year.
Fangraphs has Knizner ranked at #73 in the top 100 and #7 for catchers. fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2018-in-season-p…
Sickles:
minorleagueball.com/2018/4/27/17287872/catchers-au…
TNC’s Community Top Prospect Voting for 2019 Ranked Knizner Above Kelly:
thecardinalnation.com/forums/topic/2019-st-louis-c…
Dude we’re looking at the same data, but you’re referencing stats from when he was 18-20 years old and learning a completely different position and becoming objectively good to great at it, defensively. I never said he was a demonstrably better offensively than Knizer, but his profile is much more OBP heavy, which typically is more sustainable of a profile as one would progress to higher levels of competition. You stated very plainly that Kelly hasn’t progressed while citing numbers that indicate the exact opposite. They both make lots of contact and strike out at around the same rate, but time and time again players who are BABIP dependent in the minors rarely succeed in MLB without a healthy dose of power and a .120-130ish ISO isn’t likely to spell tons of success when also sporting a BB rate of 6-7. That profile puts his likely best outcome offensively somewhere in the Jon Jay range. That’s a fine player, if the defense grades out as average or better.
One has to ask… WHY was CK switched from 3B to catcher to begin with.? I can’t help but think it was because he was perhaps not showing the stats to prove he would be a competitive 3rd baseman….
One could rightfully argue that Knizner was learning his position, too….. and had much less opportunity to learn the new position than Kelly. Once Knizner transitioned to catcher ( a move made because Brett Austin had been drafted and there was a void to fill) , he played 166 games at NC State in 2015-16, in seasons that ran from February to late May. Once Kelly transitioned to catcher during the off season on 13-14, he played in 312 games between 2014 and 2016 in seasons that lasted from April to September. Kelly had twice as many games and was in the minor league environment where he had access to trained professionals who could work with him on both his offensive AND defensive skills at the minor league level, which was a bonus that Knizner did not have. Still, he was good enough as a catcher (who was still learning) to have been drafted in the 7th round. .He has been less polished than Kelly defensively,…. but he did not have the access to the wealth of experience/ training opportunities that CK had when he was transitioning to catcher. He may have been more rough around the edges, but he had the bat at NC State and has successfully carried into that bat his minor league career, performing more than adequately at every level.
Because you only wish to look at the last 3 years. let’s compare OBP, since this is a stat you referenced in your last post….
CK 2016=352 2017=375 2018 = .378
AK 201 =423 2017=.349 2018= .368
Just where are you seeing a major difference in OBP?
Both these players have the potential to be major league guys…. IF they each get their weaknesses on target. Kelly has the advantage in that he walks a lot. Knizner’s advantage is that he hits a lot. I don’t think there is a major league manager who is going to hire a player based on his walk rate, though. You argue that Kelly has improved offensively, I argue that Knizner has improved defensively. I guess we will need to agree to disagree on who will be the next heir apparent and wait until next year to see what happens. I DO still hold firm to my statement that a catcher who can also hit is a valuable commodity.