Although the Marlins have the worst record in the National League and the fifth-fewest wins in all of baseball, the organization has “no intention” of trading left-hander Caleb Smith to further its rebuilding effort, tweets Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. More broadly, he notes that Miami isn’t looking to deal from its core of controllable starters.
It still seems quite likely that teams will at least ask about Smith, 27, in the weeks leading up to the July 31 trade deadline. He’s currently on the 10-day IL due to some inflammation in his hip, but there’s no indication to this point that the injury is especially serious. Smith is controllable for four years beyond the 2019 campaign, which would hold enormous value to another club, particularly given how well he’s thrown when healthy.
Through 66 innings this year, Smith has turned in a 3.41 ERA with 11.2 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher who has been homer-prone even with a cavernous home park, but his 15.1 percent swinging-strike rate ranks fifth among pitchers with at least 60 innings thrown, trailing the quartet of Blake Snell, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. Smith’s 35,4 percent opponents’ chase rate is tied for 12th-best in that same set of 114 pitchers, and the spin rate on his heater falls in the 80th percentile among MLB pitchers.
Of course, all of those reasons are also cause for Miami to hang onto Smith. The Marlins aren’t going anywhere in 2019 and aren’t likely to contend in 2020, either, but they can keep Smith on the roster via arbitration all the way through the 2023 campaign. And for as solid as Smith has been on a per-inning basis, he’s yet to throw more than 77 1/3 innings in a big league season. He reached that level in 2018 before a Grade 3 lat strain ended his season, and his innings in 2019 are expected to be limited as a result. Other clubs may even be more interested in Smith if he proves durable enough to handle a full season of starts (or close to it), and Miami will have ample opportunity to market him down the road if the concept of moving him becomes more palatable.
As for the rest of the Marlins’ rotation, the bulk of their arms are even longer-term pieces. Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez and Trevor Richards are all controllable for five years beyond the current season, while fresh faces like Jordan Yamamoto and Zac Gallen can be controlled through at least 2025. Righty Jose Urena could very well have been attainable, but he’s now on the 60-day injured list due to a herniated disk in his back.
Frankly, the Marlins don’t seem to have many trade assets at all if the plan is indeed to hang onto their intriguing mix of young arms. Veteran Neil Walker has had a productive year and could be flipped for a modest return if he continues to perform once he’s recovered from the quad strain that currently has him on the IL. Fellow free-agent pickups Curtis Granderson and Sergio Romo haven’t been effective (particularly in the case of Granderson), and veteran Starlin Castro is having the worst offensive season of his career. It could be a quiet deadline for the Marlins unless they surprise by changing course with regard to their controllable starters and/or opt to pursue some bats with a good bit of team control remaining.
In the end, it’s all gamesmanship. Someone offers them enough they’ll trade anybody. As they should.
If they mean that they wont trade Smith for what they realistically expect they can get back- well, I get that.
That’s true for any player on any team in baseball.
The marlins have zero idea what’s realistic and what’s the smart move. They might hold out for some ridiculous haul, then last min pull the trigger on some terrible offer. They do this each year and often multiple times a year.
Yeah, I definitely would have liked the Marlins to have said no to Sixto Sanchez or Jorge Alfaro or Gallen or Yamamoto or Alcantara or Isan Diaz or Neidert or Dugger or Devers
Im sure they said this about Yelich Stanton and Ozuna when they were coming up into their system…
Frazier for Smith, Chen and $5M.
Throw in Thairo Estrada and you have a deal.
troll
That trade wouldn’t surprise me. Jeter is a fox in the hen house. As long as Jeter is a part owner of the Marlins he will be gifting away players to the team he actually loves. Giancarlo Stanton says hi.
Did he get injured while waving?
I loved Stanton but he’s the the type to build a franchise around. Franchises should be built around an elite rotation and bullpen and supported by good position players
Sort of the past 2 World Series winners? Both the Sox and Astros built their franchise around an elite offense. They then added pieces to their rotation and pen.
That’s soooooo funny because Smith was acquired by Jeter from the Yankees for a rental player in Garrett Cooper. So now, Jeter’s going to give away Smith to the team that never offered him a part of ownership? And btw, Jeter and Cashman aren’t exactly buddies stemming from the way Cash played hardball on his last multi-year deal. He had to get rid of Stanton and had zero leverage, Jeter didn’t trade low out of some sort of obligation towards the Yanks.
And let’s stay within reason. Smith was a good prospect but was never considered elite and has only excelled in 12 starts this year. Let’s temper some of these trade demands.
Oh you mean the player that has only played 10+ games this season. I hope you aren’t a Yankees fan because some fan base to boo someone his first game back from injury
Frazier for Smith makes a lot of sense for both teams actually. Prob need to throw in a piece or two from either side, but good thinking
don’t think so…makes no sense at all…..another stat that all of a sudden is the rage…swinging strike rate….except when you do make contact, it goes 400 Ft +…..Yankee Stadium is not a good ballpark for “fly ball pitchers” which means the little success this guy Smith is having can be used for trading purposes on a ball club other than the Yankees!
Personally, I’d cash out on him now and offer him to the Yanks for Frazier and maybe another mid tier prospect. Tons of pitching depth on the way and Marlins won’t compete until 2021 at the earliest. By that time, guys like Sixto Sanchez and Nick Neidhert should be ready for the bigs.
Guess all you posters that come up with these “great” trades don’t realize that the opposite thing you want in pitching in Yankee Stadium is a fly ball pitcher which is exactly what this article characterizes Smith as.
Did you see, or better did you hear about the beating Happ took yesterday against the Astros because he is a fly ball pitcher?
Frazier isn’t going to be traded for some mook flash in the pan, one year wonder. eh probably will be part of a package but it will not be for this guy!
Besides…been there…done that….in 2017!
One hit wonder? He’s been a great pitcher for the second year in a row now, just hasn’t been able to stay healthy.
Maybe they haven’t heard how great Frazier is yet…they only have to kick in prospect or 2 and the Yankees will trade them future hall of famer Frazier.
An Indians fans should know…you traded him to the Yankees…..maybe not…Guessed wrong on Brantley didn’t ya!
Nobody said he’s a future hall of fame except for all of you
brainiacs that post and have an opinion about anything.
He has the potential to be a solid every day outfielder that has extra base pop and can drive in runs.
So you want to talk about how great the Indians are this year?
Guessed wrong on Brantley? Since you have the crystal ball, please give us the lottery numbers for Wednesday night.
$18mil was a lot for a small market team to invest on a guy that hasn’t been able to stay healthy. Their training staff knows his health all too much, and it’s early yet so you never know if he breaks down before the ASG.
They should trade him. He was horrible he n his Yankee stint and among the worst pitchers in baseball the first half of this year. He put together a good six weeks. If someone want to overvalue that, let them have him.
100% correct, except that he’s has consistently been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball this year. From beginning till now.
Game by game log per baseball reference:
baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=smithca0…
As seen above, one cannot have a comma before “either.”
This article is actually about clint frazier. Obviously.
The Marlins would be wise to trade Caleb Smith for Clint Frazier if the Yankees would pull the trigger. The Marlins need controllable young position players with potential . Caleb Smith at 27 is the oldest pitcher in a Marlins rotation that is already top 10 in the league . With Sixto Sanchez and a host of middle of the rotation talent still in the Minors .. this would be their chance to help bring the lineup up to par. Hate on the Marlins all you want … but they’ve quietly put together a rotation that should be effective for the next 5 years at least .
When does this cycle end? The groom prospects into talent to become major league talent and then flop them for other prospects…rinse, cycle, repeat…
Like I always say, MLB needs a salary cap, a ceiling and a floor.
They got Caleb Smith for pennies and have about 5-6 other promising young arms. They aren’t close to contention and they think it’s selling high on Smith for more positional player prospects—more power to them. Trading from a surplus isn’t a bad move when you’re so deficient in other areas.
“aren’t likely to contend in 2020 either” Don’t be so sure.. The Marlins are quietly five games over .500 since May 17.