To state the obvious, this season hasn’t gone according to plan for the Mets. They’re the owners of a 34-36 record, staring at a 5 1/2-game deficit in their division and a five-game mark for the National League’s second wild card. First-time general manager Brodie Van Wagenen boldly suggested over the winter the Mets would take on all comers in 2019, but his roster has instead spun its wheels for a couple months.
Barring a turnaround leading up to the July 31 trade deadline, the Mets may have to consider selling off players they deem nonessential to their future – perhaps to boost an inadequate farm system. As things stand, the Mets aren’t giving up on buying, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network. If the team does a 180 on that mindset, though, it’ll have an intriguing trade chip in starter Zack Wheeler. The right-hander’s on many teams’ radars, including the crosstown rival Yankees’, according to Heyman.
The 29-year-old Wheeler’s in his final season of team control, in which he’s making a reasonable $5.975MM. The fact that he’s affordable enhances his trade value, though this hasn’t been a banner contract year in terms of results for Wheeler.
After missing most of 2015-17 because of injuries, the former Tommy John surgery patient returned last year to fire 182 1/3 innings of 3.31 ERA/3.25 FIP ball. This season, though, his 4.87 ERA through 88 2/3 frames ranks eighth worst among 81 qualified major league starters. Along the way, Wheeler’s average exit velocity against has gone from 84.7 mph to 87.8 mph and his hard-hit rate has risen from 27.1 percent to 34.4 since 2018, according to Statcast. Better contact against Wheeler has led to more balls leaving the yard. Wheeler yielded home runs on a paltry 8.1 percent of fly balls a year ago, but he’s now at 14.1.
Despite the red flags in Wheeler’s production, there are clear reasons for hope. With a 97 mph average fastball and a sinker that typically clocks in at 96, he remains one of the hardest-throwing starters in baseball. Wheeler’s velo has helped him increase his strikeout rate from 8.84 per nine in 2018 to a career-high 10.05 this season, while his swinging-strike percentage (11.2) and walk rate (2.64) also represent personal bests. Although Wheeler’s not getting as many ground balls as he did earlier in his career, his GB percentage (44.4) is still above average, as is his 12 percent infield fly rate. Unsurprisingly, the gap between his weighted on-base average against/expected wOBA (.307/.296) indicates he has deserved somewhat better to this point.
While this season hasn’t gone to Wheeler’s liking, it seems fair to say he’s an above-average major league starter. He’d therefore be one of the best starters on the block this summer if the Mets were to put him there, trailing Matthew Boyd but perhaps ranking in the vicinity of Marcus Stroman and Madison Bumgarner. However, it’ll be a moot point if the Mets decide to retain Wheeler, which seems to be their intention as of now. Plenty can change in the next month and a half, though.
Another pointless article putting the Mets in an early grave. And even if the season falls apart, resigning Wheeler is the smarter move for the future. Pitching doesn’t grow on trees. When you got, you keep it.
The Mets are 6.5 games out of the division lead, and they’re chasing not 1, but 2 teams. Not to mention the fact that the 4th place Nationals are right on their tail. As for a wildcard, the Mets have 5 teams ahead of them. While a miracle run is certainly possible, the playoffs seem very unrealistic at this point.
I’m not saying the Mets should dismantle the whole team, but not making any moves seems foolish. Then it’ll be more of the same next year. Wheeler seems like a piece they should move if they get a decent return. They’ll still have plenty of pitching for next year.
IF they get a decent return… I have no faith in the Mets getting back appropriate value.
The Mets are already in the grave unless they start getting consistently good starting pitching and straighten out the bullpen.
They just put Noah on the IL so it’s not like they’re getting any better
Trade him, then resign him.
Wheeler isn’t that good let him walk or trade him
They can re-sign him after the season if he’s so important. And get future assets for a later season when they actually have an offense…
Is he a Free agent after the season? Then you can trade him and resign him
As has been said before, the Mets can trade him then re-sign him.
Or… they could trade him and re-sign him.
They’ll trade him for 3 average middle relievers and cash.
Trade for Kelly Johnson??
Kelly is coaching his sons 7U All Star team, he isn’t interested.
I don’t think he’ll get what Madison can. Then again, trade market can be funny. Giants received 2 good pitching prospects for Nunez a couple of years ago, but barely anything for Cutch, save a possible utility guy in Avelino.
Sean Anderson for Nunez was a huge overpay. That’s an exception. Normally teams don’t get top pitching prospects for utility players.
Another quality arm the Yankees will watch going to another team!
Forevery,
Cashman always had an eye on him, but the Mets won’t give us the time of day, so maybe if we give them Cessa, lol, for free that loser, we can throw in Morales, and Boone, who never takes out a starting pitcher who gives up 7 runs in the first, and never has anyone warming up on the pen. Oh yeah, throw in Rothschild for free too, who never ever helped a pitcher in need. Okay, I’m done venting. Thank you
Lol preach dude that’s so true
A 5 game deficit doesn’t seem as insurmountable as the article’s tone implies.
The problem with the Mets isn’t so much the standings as the team. They haven’t proved they can play better than .500 ball.
6.5 out of the division. 5 out of the wildcard. But they’re not just chasing 1 team. That’s the key.
Really the next series the Mets have against Braves and Phillies will really determine if the Mets are sellers or contenders.
Is Matz drawing any interest?
I would trade Zack wheeler in a minute. He has had only one good season since his rookie campaign in 2013. I know good pitching is hard to come bye But the Zack wheeler’s of the world are a dime a dozen. The only problem is I don’t think we will get much for him because he’s not that good.
Braves!!! Go get him, bring him home!…
I will drive wheeler to Bronx.
Biggest p—— ever
No Guts
dang, he must’ve stole your girlfriend or something huh?! bwahaha…
hope they deal edwin, though id be skeptical of the likelihood of it. Phillies should buy “low”
This type of discussion is a little premature, in my opinion. The Mets play 13 games before the all-star break against the two teams in the NL East they are chasing. Being 6+ games back at this point is not ideal, but lets not pretend that they are more than a well timed hot streak away from being right in the thick of things with 3+ months of games left.
What have you seen this year that implies the Mets have a well timed hot streak in them?
That being said, you’re not wrong. The Mets are not going to make any decisions until the next few NL East series. Lots of in-division games that may shake things up.
Even if they do go on a hot streak that just leaves them a .500 team who went on a hot streak.
Unless they add significantly at the deadline, that’s not going to get them very far come playoff time
They have some players in the line-up who are clutch. They were a .500 team heading into the All Star break in 2015.
If they trade Zack, I guess the Mets become Wheeler dealers…
That dad joke gets extra points because it’s Father’s Day.
I promise I wouldn’t have posted it on any other day!
Haha this writer is a hack
I suspect you’re saying that because he said “wheeler is somewhere in the vicinity of your beloved Bumgarner at this point”? Well that’s unfortunately the truth. This isn’t the old Mad Bum the ace anymore. Teams may value his prior postseason performance ahead of those other two but that’s all in the past. This Mad Bum is more of a #2/3 starter
As a Braves fan, would love to see the Braves trade for Wheeler and use him to improve the bullpen. Mets would be reluctant to trade Zack to his hometown Braves but Atlanta could offer a couple of controllable starters that have been in the MLB top 100. Atlanta send Adam Duvall, Kevin Gausman, Luiz Gohara and Kolby Allard, two lefty prospects and a righty starter with two years control to the Mets for Zack Wheeler, Robert Gsellman and Edwin Diaz.
as a Braves fan myself..why would the Mets do that? those pitchers wont land Diaz alone
Yeah we’d all like to trade trash for treasure too.
The Mets took on Cano’s contract for Diaz. They’re stuck with him.
Gotta talk about the Mets because yesterday was the Yankees. How many other teams have the same scenario. Website is GARBAGE anymore.
Don’t let the door hit you on the way out…
I would trade Wheeler to the Yanks for C.Frazier and Loiasiga.
Where will Frazier play? The corners are full with McNeil/Smith and Conforto, and he doesn’t have the glove for CF.
Seems like a fair deal that would probably be agreed upon by both teams