So … with the Giants now within 2.5 games of a Wild Card spot after winning twelve of their past fourteen games, should they halt a long-anticipated summer sell-off? There’s obvious appeal to making a push with a veteran-laden team, but also no small amount of risk in foregoing an opportune and much-needed chip-cashing opportunity on the trade market.
It’s awfully hard to pull the rug out from under a team that was built to win. The ballclub was constructed for contention by the prior front office regime, but seemed badly in need of a reset after two-straight miserable campaigns. Maybe it has taken longer than hoped, and hasn’t quite happened in the manner anticipated, but perhaps we’re finally seeing the fruit of the labors of deposed GM Bobby Evans.
There are some signs of recently improved play from the roster. Over the past thirty days, Giants hitters have paced the majors with 162 runs scored while producing a collective 111 wRC+ (11th in baseball). In that same span, the pitching staff has been a top-ten unit by measure of fWAR. The Giants’ very good and judiciously deployed bullpen has led all of baseball in net win-percentage added this season, which helps explain how the team has strongly outperformed win expectations based upon Pythagorean (+3) or BaseRuns (+6) evaluation. Perhaps there’s some magic yet in a dugout commanded for one final time by Bruce Bochy.
On the other hand, it’s easy to get carried away with recency bias. There really isn’t much evidence of underlying changes in the talent level on the roster that would suggest this is a much better ballclub than its 47-49 record would suggest. There are still five teams ahead of the Giants in the Wild Card picture, many of which also have legitimate chances at winning their divisions and will be improving at the deadline. The Giants have no hope of catching the Dodgers in the NL West and don’t appear situated to make notable additions, even if they do hold existing veterans. Fangraphs’ playoff odds calculator still places the Giants as the second-to-least likely team in the National League to appear in the playoffs.
Plus, the San Francisco farm system — despite making some improvements of late — could clearly stand to be supplemented. We’ve been talking for months about the increasingly appealing set of trade pieces the Giants can bring to the market this summer. Our recent ranking of the top sixty deadline assets is littered with San Francisco roster members. In particular, the Giants possess many of the top pure rental players and all but control the bullpen market. They could also have some chances at moving big contracts to help free the near-future books.
All things considered, it’s a tough test for president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, who’ll either have to sell the selling to the fanbase or risk hampering the rebuilding effort. What do you think he ought to do? (Poll link for app users.)
Sell! Sell! Sell!
Tough question, but to swing and miss is probably not an option here. Rebuilds are difficult, but with so many players on expiring contracts (who will bring decent chips), it is hard not to sell.
They only have 2 players on expiring contracts.
Huh? They have 6 players who are FA next year according to baseball reference.
They do have 6 FA’s but only 2 would be wanted by other teams (Madbum, Smith) I suppose there could be a team willing to take a chance at Pablo simply for depth
That includes Pomeranz, Voit, Salano, Dickerson. They won’t be traded. The only two with value are Smith and Bumgarner.
Dickerson is not a free agent. Watson and Dyson are the other two big trade chips. If the Giants ate some of Belts contract, he could be moved. Pillar is another possibility, especially for a team like the Indians. As a Giants fan, would like them to keep Madbum, but trade off relievers for prospects. Rebuild while still competing.
Watson’s contract is not what everyone thinks it is. It’s like 10.5M based off escalators from last year, I read (they massaged it to keep the Giants under the luxury tax last year). Smith will/can bring back a haul. MadBum’s return depends on a team buying into his postseason dominance. Given that he can’t go 6 innings regularly in the regular season, I don’t think the return will be great enough to just hold him and take the comp pick. Paying down anyone’s salary while the team is in the Wild Card hunt would be idiotic.
All boils down to Smith being moved (hopefully to AL or ATL or LAD) and the rest staying to me. Maybe Pomeranz-Holland if they can get a AA body they like out of em.
Pablo also has a club option which would be league minimum.
Antibelt,
Look at the progression of stats. During the past 2 and 1/2 years Bumgarner is 15-23. For those who want to cite injuries, he is 5-7 this year with a 3.86 ERA. This ERA is the highest of his career. This is not ACE quality production. This is a number 2 or 3 in the rotation. His WAR currently sits at 1. That is wins against replacement. A WAR of 1 is pedestrian. Bumgarner is not an ACE and he doesn’t make the Giants substantially more competitive. On top of this Bumgarner will seek an ACE salary as a free agent. Do you really want to pay 25M to 30M per years to Bumgarner next year. The answer is no. Trade him and get something, anything in return. The same old tired arguments were made for “the Horse”, Matt Cain, who became an albatross to the Giant’s rotation and to “the Bulldog” Jake Peavy who spent his time being Bochy’s gardener. If you want to spend money on pitching, lock up Anderson, Beede, Suarez and Rodriquez long term. Look at Webb and Menez, they are a year away. Get two A top prospects for Bumgarner. Secure the future of the pitching staff by trading Bumgarner, Smith, Dyson, Watson for 4-6 young studs who can throw the ball.
The future of the Giants will always be in pitching. Even if they put the bullpens in right center. With Beede, Anderson, Rodriquez, Suarez, Menez and Webb the Giants could add 4-6 young kids right behind them. Anyone with an ounce of brains knows that pennants are won with pitching.
Ziadi knows this and Ziadi can always find the Giants a Solano or Dickerson. Heck if Bochy wasn’t such a turd, Slater would have been here last year. The guy always hits, no matter where he plays. Bochy should be pl;aying Slater at second base so after this season we don’t have to watch Panik there anymore. Bochy is loyal to his veterans ad nauseum.
Dump Panik. Dump Crawford, Dump Belt, and Dump Longoria. Open the flood gates to the young kids and be relevant again. The sooner the better..
Sure, Fanrhan is an ex-Dodger, but I seriously don’t think the Giants help the Dodgers win a World Series by trading them our closer. .Unless we get a great haul. That would be a huge disaster.
That be a great trade
Pipe dream thinking Lux would comeback for Smith. They wouldn’t trade him for machado. And lux was a year further off from the bigs.
Lmao
If they go 8-2 the next 10 games, do they still sell? Are they still in sell mode if they are 50-50 or better after this weekend? Today, they are sellers. That could change inside of a week. It’s too soon to judge.
I agree. 10-11 Games to see what they have. I say buy today. And it could change. But with the Mets for 4. Have to go 3-1. Cubs next is a playoff series. At Home. Have to go 2-1. And Pads on the road. . . Have to win at least 7-3 6-4 this next run. Before Philly. Then pound them game one. Show the front office were real…
Buy? The Giants need help at pretty much every position on offense. Their rotation is a mess outside of Madbum and Shark. Their only strength is their bullpen. They don’t have the farm to make serious moves to contend. Sure they have Bart and Ramos but neither of those guys are going anywhere. SF has an aging and expensive roster. Their best bet is to retool the farm and look to contend in 2-3 years.
While I don’t think they should buy, to say “their rotation is a mess outside of Madbum and Shark”, is a gross exaggeration. Tyler Beede, who carried a 27.00 ERA at season’s start, has lower it with each start, and has been excellent over his last 5 starts posting a 3.41 ERA. Pomeranz has also been very good lately, with only 1 bad start in his last 7 starts. and an ERA of 3.78 over that span. Shaun Anderson has had his ups and downs, but I doubt he’s the worst #5 SP in the league.
Trim,
They will need 85 wins to get into the wild card. That means playing at 570 the rest of the season. This club is hot right now, but no club stays hot for three months. Playing so poorly out of spring training falls on the manager. It took Longoria two months and Crawford three months to get into baseball condition. Now Longoria is injured for the next month. It will be a miracle if this team gets into the wild card slot. Dickerson and Slater can’t keep carrying this team. Crawford is a has been. Panik is garbage. Posey is a shell of his former self. The win streak will end and the slump will come. Such is life.
Since the playoffs are a possibility, why should the sell? The don’t need to cut salary. They have the space to add a big contract. So, killing a playoff run would not be good marketing move.
Agreed. Farhan said as much on knbr. There is more going on then just selling everything… Like the pundits say.
The fanbase. Organization. Meaning Money. !!! Veteran players. Bochy. Bumgarner in the postseason is an unknown. If they can get a wild card.
Just have to keep winning games. Period. 86. Get to 86 see what they have. . .
killing a playoff run would not be good marketing move.
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Neither is hanging onto everyone for another season and finishing 9th, which is where they are.
They are not in 9th place.
There are 8 teams with better records in the NL. You know what that means, Vinny?
They are not in 9th place.
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Good chuckle at Vinnie. Usually, if I am going to correct someone, I try to make sure I am right. Or maybe he’s like some of the RS I know who hae their own version of reality.
Saying they’re in 9th place, while technically correct, is disingenuous, since, as everyone knows, the top 5 make the PS. Being in 9th is irrelevant, and is a transparent attempt to shade the issue by making it look worse than it actually is. What is relevant is they’re in 4th place for a spot in the WC.
Well that depends on your optics of the situation. You can also say they’re only 2.5 games better than the Mets who are a nightmare. It’s all about how you want to frame the information. THe 9th place teAm in the AL is the Angels and you don’t hear anyone calling for them to not sell.
Well if the statement had been that they’re only 2.5 games better than the Mets, that would have been something I wouldn’t take exception to. It’s true, and it’s a valid way to look at it. But, to reiterate, saying they’re in 9th place, is still a transparent attempt to skew the reality of the situation.
And if the Angels were on a tear comparable to the Giants, with the supporting numbers, wRC+ and fWAR, that the Giants have posted, then people would be talking about them with some saying they should go for it.
If they don’t sell they will stay mediocre or worse for longer. It isn’t that tough to see that you sell off when mediocre
What can you get for a mediocre player? More mediocre players.
Bottom 10 team with a bottom 10 farm….the Giants are playing well of late but way beyond their level and will slow down so it’s best to sell off pieces to stock the farm….
They’ve been playing well since June 1st. They had a big hole to dig out of and so they’re doing that now.
3rd best road record since end of April. If they can be at least .500 at home, they’ll be legitimate playoff contenders. Plus Cueto is returning end of next month.
Check their schedule, it is brutal!
No it isn’t.
The Giants farm is going to be a top 15 farm at beginning of next season mark my words. They have 3 in the top 50( Bart, Ramos, Luciano) they will have 6 total in top 100 next yr, Adding to the 3 in currently, Bishop, hjelle, canario and they might have a couple more from the trades. If they have 6-8 top 100 and 3-4 in top 50 count on a major jump to top 15 farm. They have several prospects doing great and leading in some categories as we speak;
AAA- Zach Green . 1101 ops- 1st
A+ Heliot Ramos . 976 ops 2nd along with 12hr
A Seth Corry 2.22 era 4th, 104ks 5th
SS Franklin Labour 13hr 1st, 1192ops 4th 30rbi 1st. Tyler Flores 7hr 2nd, Ricardo Genoves 7hr tie2nd 28rbi 2nd, Simon whiteman 15steals 2nd, 23bb 2nd
AZL Connor Cannon 8hr 2nd, Luciano 7hr 3rd 1100 ops 5th, Luis toribino 21bb 1st
DSL Luis matos 1st in 2bs 35rbi 2nd 17steals 4th, 5hr tie 5th , Victor bericoto 37bb 1st.
There is a good group of young kids on the rise
Buy.
The other teams are reeling. There are a lot of good trade chips in the off season.
I’d perfer to resign Smith. Watson if possible. Dyson can be traded. I’d like to resign Bum. And Belt can be traded in the off season as well. Maybe Crawford even.
With the Waiver wire changed. It’s too early to Sell. But if Maneuvers could be made. Such as Randy Winn. When they picked him. Addition by Subtraction. Trade Panik now. I’d be open. Moving parts is OK. With Bochy’s last season. But with a Play towards competing… Not selling the house for 2022 Maybe. Forget that. A Waste… The players are here now. Playing hard. Zaidi didn’t go and get Pillar to build a Current Loser… Or pick up the players he has… He has makeshifted a Chemistry the is undeniable. With Bruce Bochy leading the way… The hit n run the other night. ? That’s Postseason Baseball.
I say give em chance. All of em. Then sell the house come December. If that’s the course. Bochy retired see what you have. . .
One Last Run. !!!
#RealityCheckNeeded
Nobody wants Belt with that contract. They are not going to get anything for him.
The bullpen is strong and they can get the draft pick for MadBum if he doesn’t get traded.
In all honesty they owe it to their fan base to trade Smith for a package that can help now & in the future and keep MadBum to try & make a run now for a WC.
Wil Smith to Atlanta for Bryse Wilson, Adam Duvall & Joey Wentz.
Other than MadBum I don’t think anybody else currently on the roster is worth moving for what they would get for them.
Hope Cueto comes back and shows health so you can move him in the offseason and hopefully Melancon can reestablish himself as a closer and he can bring something back in a trade
Start the rebuild in the offseason
Braves traded Matt Kemp to the dodgers. Zaidi and company. . . Anything is possible. . .
And the Dodgers traded 3 dead contracts back. But sure just ignore that and act like they trade just for Kemps skill
Why would the Giants want Adam Duvall? That’s ridiculous.
Have you seen his numbers in AAA and do you see the guys the Giants are putting out there now ?
Duvall has a track record of at least hitting HR & playing great defense.
I didn’t put it as the top piece for a return just an add on that can help now at a position that could use help.
See what the Giants outfielders did in AAA this year and how that translated to the majors. Hint: it didn’t.
Ok again my trade proposal gives 2 Top 10 organizational SP prospects from arguably the 2nd best minor league system in baseball
Duvall would be a throw in that would provide help THIS season. He has a better track record than all the Giant OFers currently playing over their head.
I don’t understand how anybody looks at that and says Duvall would be the centerpiece of my proposal.
If you don’t like Duvall take Demiritte then he is younger
Have you seen his numbers in AAA and do you see the guys the Giants are putting out there now ?
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Yeah, just what the Giants need, an almost 32 year old AAA player. Atlanta should sign him to a long-term contract and start him if RF next year.
Duvall has an .894 OPS at AAA, Jarrett Parrker had a .906 OPS at AAA, Parker went unclaimed through waivers, and was outrighted to Salt Lake. Now why would the Giants want Duvall?
Even if his AAA numbers meant anything, they already have Pillar, Dickerson, Yastrzemski, and Slater, all of whom are better options than Duvall. I would even prefer Tyler Austin, their 5th OF to Duvall.
Dumbpotd
Nobody wants Belt with that swing, one of the worst I’ve ever seen,
If you took Smoak and Grichuk and threw in Conner Menez with Belt I’d be down.
Wilson and Wentz aren’t that great. There stock is falling and they won’t trade for dudes struggling like a boss. Maybe for anderson, wright, pache or waters.
buy with what?
Remember last year when Pirates bought after a hot July run. They should probably sell at least Smith since he is a pending FA.
Pirates suck. Giants are Winners… That’s a known. . .
Dude they both suck
Farhan Zaidi, the hottest commodity in the modern front office game. World Series Rings. Brian Sabean. Great Ownership. Larry Baer who hired Farhan. Scouting who found Bart, Ramos. Commitment to finding a way to win.
And least I forget Pittsburgh Pirates Fans. . . Barry Bonds.
Giants are Winners.
Not even The Dodgers Win The World Series Every Year. . .
My point is that they should follow the twins path when they traded Kintzler. If they stay hot and want to keep MadBum I get it. But smith could bring back a nice package and won’t really affect whether they may the playoffs or not.
Two games out now, we are right there on the cusp of an opportunity to make something special happen in this final year of BB and the ‘10 – ‘19 decade. What a way it would be BB to ride off into the sunset, into the HOF. With one last playoff run possible, —there for the taking— a storyline narrative like no other awaits our baseball gods. Let’s not let this pass us by without giving it a chance to ride on to the end of ‘19. Shall we pick up a few more pieces to sweeten the chances. I would think so.
Giants have noting to sell to get any good players. Their minor leagues has been destroyed by Sabean.
Oh really? Pretty Myopic thinking. Just going to parrot what most others say “weak farm”. There is some fine talent right down the road there in SJ. Do you ever go to any SJ games? I think you might just be a fan from another team hoping to score some of our finest pitching talent.
“Destroyed”? They currently have 3 prospects in the top 100. Fangraphs has them with 1 55, 2 45+s, 2 45s, and 6 40s. That doesn’t sound like destroyed to me.
You’d be hard pressed to find any team outside of Boston that doesn’t have that valuation from Fangraphs. 40 FV prospects are considered to be little to nothing.
40 prospects are depth pieces. Funny how you ignore the 5 prospect at 45 and higher to focus on the 40s.
Besides, I was responding to the assertion that the Giant’s farm was destroyed, and they had nothing.
That’s not my point. They also ranked the system 27th out of 30. It’s a weak system relative to the league. Which is my point. “Destroyed” is a harsh word because this guy is an A’s fan but it’s a weak system.
Sell!! not the most popular opinion but you can get so much in return for Smith and Bum. Considering your losing the guys anyways, get some good prospects. Dyson, belt and crawford might bring in a piece or 2 and rebuild the farm system…. total burn it down and rebuild. And still have the money to Go get those young big name guys in the off season to help with the rebuild. guys they can build the franchise around..
Free Agent Hitters Don’t Come Here.
Every trade top 50 has multiple Giants on the list. And not much else if you ask me. . . Still a few weeks till the deadline. But I don’t see a whole lot for other teams to pick up, Besides Giants Players. Who are jelling and playing great.
If they win another 7-8 games before the deadline. Continuing to climb. Over the Dbacks. Stl. Up there with the Brews and Nats and Phills. Giants have better Bullpens parts than all 3. With Cueto coming back. !
The offense is the key. Can they keep it up. Can the starters continue to feed. Smadj. Bum. The other guys. . .
This is a team rising. But have to do it At Home this next week. In a hitters park. Their Home.
We’ll See… I say buy. If there in it. Nunez waivor claim is a start. Till Longo gets back. . .
Dude, enough with the periods.
It’s tough reading a million sentence fragments
Period.
I voted “Hold”. I’m not sure what they would even buy right now. The OF is finally working, and the underperforming vets are chipping in. But really, we are seeing the fruits of Zaidi’s labors, not Evans’.
The Giants are surging because they are finally outhitting teams thanks to the slugging of guys like Dickerson, Solano, Yaz, and Pillar, who are all Zaidi acquisitions. The pitching is adequate and the team can afford to lose Smith. Maybe Bum too, but only if there’s an offer good enough to warrant doing so. Keep everyone else for the next 10 days to see how things shake out. I get the sense that Bum is undervalued around the game at the moment, so keep him and QO unless there’s value to be had in a trade.
This Giants run has been utterly miraculous and hard to believe. It hasn’t been easy on Zaidi from the start, but he’s made some shrewd moves. Hopefully he will make the most out of this team.
They’d get someone to replace Panik. He’s been the only one who really hasn’t shown any sign of life. Maybe someone like Eric Sogard.
This.
You’re one of the only commentators to address WHY the Giants are winning.
They got better. Their outfield is completely different than opening day.
The veterans and the fans deserve to see this play out for a few more weeks.
Reevaluate on July 30.
So the options are buy, stand, or sell, if the Giants buy, who are their likely targets? Another SP for sure, another bat? But who exactly? No point getting marginal players. We sell then we raise the white flag and look to the future which is what everyone thought they’d do, so maybe standing pat is the key, make some smaller movers, Sacramento has some nice players who could step in if they move a few pieces. They have just finally starting getting some nice pieces in the lower levels on the minors, would hate to see them move any of those guys
Sell. They need to position themselves to be competing for the division soon, not be a perpetual wild card team. I know it’s a hard pill to swallow, but mediocrity sucks.
you cant just not sell because you “theoretically” have a shot at a wild card spot. it’s not a realistic goal.
Giants will 100% have to sell… I mean Buying kills them.. MadBum + Will Smith ++ could land them 3-4 top 100 specs and put their rebuild on steroids.. buying empties out their lackluster farm… can’t afford to lose MadBum and Will Smith to FA for only 1 comp pick each ..sets Giants back 3+ yrs
Whatever they do, need to to fully believe in and commit to what they’re doing, otherwise they’re just wasting their finite amount of time
Really they should buy and sell…which makes Zaidi’s job even tougher. Either that or hold for the next week. Frankly the only teams I think they have to worry about are Cards and Brew Crew. MAYBE Phillies. Rocks and Padres are done. I don’t think Phillies can sustain
This answer is easy. Trade Bumgarner for every team’s top five prospects.
If on July 31 they are as close in the race as they are today they should sell Will Smith and maybe another reliever but hold Bumgarner. They can replenish the bullpen from AAA and always recoup a comp pick for Bumgarner if they don’t resign him. A strong second half could change their expectations for contention going forward to the point where paying Bumgarner might make sense
I could have taken Pedro.
Just needed 5 more mg of ephedrine.
There’s a presumption that selling will net prospects who will be foundational players in the near-future. My concern is that bypassing a playoff run this year for players who might help down the line would be missing a huge opportunity—riding Bumgarner one more time with Bochy’s managerial brilliance on display one more time.
The offense is scorching hot, which is most likely unsustainable. But the SF bats are finally doing something they haven’t done in a long time: producing. Even when they cool down, they’ll still be competitive. Alex Dickerson isn’t a fluke, and in fact was a gift when San Diego discarded him. Pillar took a while to get on track, but he’s there now. Tyler Austin isn’t a star, but he’s a nice piece. Pablo has resurged. Perhaps Crawford is out of his season-long funk. Now they need Posey to find himself and Longoria to keep hitting. And add a piece or two. (Remember Cody Ross? Hunter Pence?)
There really isn’t that much difference between this squad and the ones that won three World Series titles—with the biggest difference being that the pitching strength is more in the bullpen than in the rotation. That past bullpen was very good, but this one is better.) Those three World Series teams weren’t loaded with WAR stars, the collective OPS wasn’t special. Rather, they won with intangibles, great managing, and a little luck. And in 2014 in particular, they won because of Bumgarner.
Don’t pass on an opportunity because selling for a rebuild is the prudent thing to do. Give this run a chance to play out. Give room for the magic to happen, for the improbable run from the same cast that authored three improbable runs earlier this decade.
Unless they tank in the next 10 days. Then it’s probably best to sell.
Alex Dickerson’s BABIP is over a hundred points higher than his career average, in the biggest pitcher’s park there is.
That’s called “a fluke”.
It’s also called “due to regress hard very soon”.
Dickerson has been saddled with injuries for years. He’s healthy as of now. If he can stay healthy I can’t see a fall in the future
Sell! Don’t hope for a miracle this year – build for strength for the next 4-7 years. The old management was short-sighted and has led us to battling up from last place while the Dodgers dominate. We need the new management to look into the future.
As a Dodger fan I hope they buy and trade the farm away!
IMO, the biggest mistake teams make is trying to convince themselves that they are in contention. Every year there is a team who is a .475 team with a ceiling is .500. And if they hit that ceiling, then they think the can play .600, if only they add a couple of pieces.
And it almost never works. I’d guess that there is once team each year that makes a run into the WC. Outside of Miami, there is not a single team less than 2.5 behind the SFG. Assuming you think the SFG have a chance, then it stands to reason that the SFG stand less than a 10% chance of making the one-game WC play-in.
Assuming the game is at Washington, against Scherzer, that’s another 1-.3 chance of advancing. You are roughly a 25-1, maybe a 30-1 underdog against getting into the NLCS.
Realistically, you have little chance of competing until 2021, when some of the really bad contracts start to expire. Use that opportunity to rebuild the farm, and maybe offload at least some of the salary for guys that are overpaid, but can be contributors to other teams (Belt, Crawford, Posey, Melancon, Longoria, etc.). It would be expensive, but the fans might like it if the SFG ate most of the salary in exchange for a better return, so it doesn’t look like the owners are pocketing the money.
Right now hold, wait until the days before the deadline to see exactly what you have and exactly what is offered. Two weeks in baseball is an eternity.
Don’t just give away Smith, but if a whopper deal can be made, move him. There are plenty of guys in that amazing bullpen that can step up. This goes for any of the bullpen pieces.
From what I read in the comments on this site nobody wants Bum for top 50 prospects. If a deal that doesn’t blow you over just keep him too. He will certainly decline the option so at least a draft pick will come back. I’d rather keep him than get mediocre returns and try to get him to that one-game playoff.
Let’s not forget Cueto comes back in September. While I wouldn’t rely on him to be at full strength, good pitching is good pitching.
I’m all about stocking the farm, but getting pennies on the dollar just to get warm bodies in AAA doesn’t excite me as much as watching these guys play down the stretch.
I do think the Giants should sell…that said…it is always a bit of a crap shoot. There is no guarantee you are going to get something valuable in return.. It is always tough to see a fan favorite like Madisn Bumgarner go to another team. That is baseball now. Bottom line…trade…trade…trade!!
If it helps, as a RS fan, I’d be willing to trade Betts if he doesn’t want to extend with us. It’s a ruthless sport of you want to compete. I’m guessing that no one in TB is missing fan favorite Longoria.
Why can’t the Giants do both? Buy and Sell.
The Yankees did this a few years ago and they’re doing pretty good now.
The Giants have several minor league bullpen arms, chiefly Melvin Adon, just waiting in the wings. Trade Smith, Watson, Dyson to build for the future. Trade Vogt and Panik too;
But Keep Bumgarner and make a run. If they fail to get to the Wild Card they can offer Bum a qualifying offer.
With Dickerson and Slater becoming OF fixtures the future has arrived earlier than expected.
The Giants can also take on bad contracts to acquire future building blocks. That’s the advantage of being a large market team, which the Giants are.
The veterans on this team and the fans deserve another shot at the playoffs but with an eye on the future. BUY and SELL.
And, as a RS fan, I would be thinking about a reset myself, for much of the same reasons. A WC is probably about a 40% chance. Playing against Snell with Price maybe 50%? So the chance of an ALCS appearance is only about 20%.. And then we become a material underdog against the NYY or Astros.
It’s different for the RS, since we just won, but I’d be more likely to sell than to buy.
Still…there is no guarantee any strategy will work out. I’d love to see the Giants keep, MadBum, Belt,Smith etc. I just don’t think that the team is in position to do major damage this year. There are too many contracts ending this year to not make trades. Get something now that may help you in the future…hopefully the Giant management is better at evaluating minor league talent than it has been in the past.
The unfortunate thing is that this recent hot streak makes the Giants think they have a chance. It’s not just that they’re 2.5 games back it’s that they also have to pass the Phillies, Diamondbacks, Cardinals, AND Brewers to make it into the last wildcard spot. If they were 2.5 games back with one team to beat that would be an entirely different story.
They need to sell very badly to rebuild this franchise and hoping, for their sake, this recent hot streak hasn’t made that impossible due to PR.
Exactly. The hot streak will in fact end. They have to play over .650 the rest of the season to perhaps make wc. I just don’t see that happening. Sell now while you are hot. The farm needs rebuilding. Sell some pieces and who knows you still could be in contention but at least you will be building for the future.
Don’t sell! That could be enough to turn Jb Bukauskas and Corbin Martin into Kyle Tucker plus!!!
For Stroman that is.
Like all other teams the Giants should move expiring contract players like Mad Bum and Smith even though the markert for these type of players is going down. Most controllable players should be traded in the winter. The price is too high right now for most players, at this point I don’t see a lot of trades being made by the deadline
They have to move MadBum. They can’t just let the contract expire with nothing to show for it.
Buy!!!!
– The rest of the NL West
Ha. Yeah. The Dodger fan in me says the Giants should chase the mirage this year and extend their irrelevance for a few more seasons. The baseball fan says they should be pushing the reset button, rebuild the farm, and use their financial clout to become competitive again sooner.
Yup not selling would set their rebuild back significantly. But Farhan has no emotional attachment so he will probably take the smart route
Good comment BlueSky.
Well we both have something we’re wishing for. I’m hoping your FO doesn’t get the needed BP pieces for the 3rd year in a row. Just don’t get why they don’t get it.
Looking at yet another completely needless bullpen loss today and asking myself the same question. The only answer I have is the money. Their aversion to paying even a small CBT to put this team over the top isn’t religious, it’s financial. They have 12 days to prove me wrong. I hope they will but I am not expecting it.
The challenges are that 1) Even if they play well the rest of this month and move close to the 2WC slot, they would still have to sustain that for the last two months of the season to justify not selling; and 2) Zaidi can legitimately rebuild that farm system in just one season with the opportunity that is staring him in the face right now.
As for the argument that they can’t get real value for any of these guys, I disagree.
-Watson to the Nats for Denaburg & Sharp
-Dyson and Moronta to Atlanta for Anderson & Mueller
-Bumgarner to the Twins for Larnach and & Duran
-Smith & Rodriguez to Tampa Bay for Liberatore & Baz
-Trevor Gott to Boston for Tanner Houck.
Adding Pomeranz, Holland,and even Panda to some of those deals to the right teams can also be done to meet needs. And that’s before Zaidi gets offers for Shark, Belt, and Melancon contingent on paying down those contracts. The point is that Zaidi has a once-in-a-regime opportunity this season to rebuild the farm and build upon the good work he’s done already deepening this roster.
Their hot streak makes selling harder for Zaidi to justify to fans, but it may actually strengthen his negotiating position. If the Giants were out of it, other GMs would be able to lowball Zaidi knowing he HAD to sell. Now they might have to sweeten deals a little more because selling is not a forgone conclusion.
That said, if he gets compelling offers of high minors or even young MLB talent, I think selling Bum and Smith makes sense.
Good point
As a Giants fan, I vote for holding onto Bum, and re-sign him (he wants to stay), as well as Smith. Then move Watson, Dyson & Pomeranz & replace them with Vincent, Bergen & Rodriguez/Suarez. I think we still help the farm quite a bit & remain relevant this year & beyond. Zaidi is crafty & smart enough to win now, while still re-building!
I predict that the Giants will hold ( as they should) and then have an abysmal August.
The Giants recent hot streak has increased their playoff odds from 2% to a whopping 3.5%
fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds
This is NOT a playoff team. Lol.
Sell, if Zaidi gets the return he’s looking for. I’m sure they’ve extensively scouted potential partners and know who’d they want in a trade. The team can still remain competitive even with a few trades. It’s not about getting a 163rd game this year, it’s about winning the World Series again in the next few years. Got to get younger, more athletic and free up more cash.
You dont have buyers unless there are sellers willing to sell. The Giants aren’t trending in the right direction as a team despite their recent success. Playing above their heads will only let them sniff the playoffs and perpetuate the mediocrity. Trade the pieces, build up the minor league system, compete down the road
I say, go for it !! Let Bochy go out with a chance to do something.
Then in the off-season do what ever you want.
Sell, if they get a great offer. Don’t sell just to get salary relief or some long-shot, crappy prospect.
Well it’s not like it has to be entirely one or the other. The Giants bullpen is deep enough that you could still trade out of that and get a prospect while remaining competitive, It should be remembered too that the Giants plan on having Cueto back in September, and while he will be rusty If he could pitch decently that gives you a big boost if you do make the playoffs. What’s killing the Giants are the underperforming veterans, and none of them are going anywhere, and once they can be gotten rid of the Giants will have the payroll flexibility to do a lot.
The only question to me (as the biggest Giants fan I know) is about MadBum. Smith could go (preferably to the AL) and bring back plenty. The other relievers won’t bring back much, so I say hold them.
Farhan can’t trade MadBum unless the team pretty much loses out from here on out. The optics would be horrible. Trading the ace off a team within 3 games of the Wild Card would lose him the clubhouse going into a managerial search. He’d lose all credibility with his team through 2021-22. If he was gonna do that, he should of tanked in April.
This is what I would want to see as a fan: trade Smith to the AL., keep MadBum and QO him, offer him a lucrative short-term extension, and take the comp pick if he leaves. This team will be competing for Wild Cards for the next few years best case scenario since the Dodgers are head and shoulders above everyone in that division. The core that will win the division will be found through the draft and international signings, not through trading mediocre relievers on pretty meh contracts.
An important thing to remember is everything looks like Cueto will return in September, so SF will have pretty much the same thing it had in ’16 when it had a legit chance to beat the eventual WS champ Cubs. Selling would be extremely misguided.
so SF will have pretty much the same thing it had in ’16 when it had a legit chance to beat the eventual WS champ Cubs.
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A couple of key differences.
1-They were already in 1st on 7/31/16, not fighting for a one-game WC play-in.
2-They were 5 ahead of StL for the 2nd WC spot, so they had a really good chance of making the playoffs. Now they are 2 behind with 11 teams vying for two spots..
Sure. but the quality of team remains the same. Offense probably better, since they won’t need to start Gorkys and Gillespie in the playoffs.
As painful as it might be, they simply have to sell.
They need to line up there roster by age as well. You’ve got young Ramos, Bart and Luciano. Need matching age prospects to have a solid core in 2-3 years. That just so happens to be when most of the money’s off the books. SELL, lol.
If only there were other ways they could get players in the next 2-3 years besides compromising a potential playoff run. Hmmm.
You could probably draft, but you’re adversaries, who are already ahead of you, can also draft. You need a mechanism that gets you from mediocre to good. Your cumulative record since June, 2016, is .440. In 2020, you have ~ $110M in contracts for 7 players whose cumulative WAR this year is 4.2.
Doing nothing simply delays the date that you become relevant.
Becoming relevant in the division? That’s not happening for 3 years no matter if they sell or hold. The Dodgers are the class of the NL and not going anywhere anytime soon.
You can improve the team and play well at the same time. See: SF Giants, 2019.
The Giants biggest problem the last 2 years has not been the aging core like everyone thinks. It was having absolutely no depth of offense. They had to give Gorkys Hernandez 300 PAs because there was no one else to play CF. They started the same this year with Duggar, but the Pillar trade allowed them to relegate him to Sacramento. They have the offense depth they’ve desperately needed for a long time. Would be idiotic and misguided to sell now.
Trade Smith if you can get a package you like, but hold MadBum and enough of the bullpen to allow the team to make a run if it keeps playing well.
Every year teams encounter luck, bad and good when it comes to health (majors and farm system), the bounce of the ball etc. EVERY team especially those teams that win the WS and those that finish last. Giants seem to have been a team of extremes with luck in their recent past history and as a fan I’ll take 3 WS parades for 2 bad seasons 24/7/365.
Their winning recipe was simple, a quality top of the rotation, a deep flexible high leverage bullpen (for Bochy to run) good defense and the ability to grind out runs especially at their home ballpark and flashing power on the road.
This team is not that and the question is not whether they should sell but rather should they BUY and the answer to that is easy, no. So if you’re not a buyer then for your expiring contracts you should sell.
I’m confused. That’s exactly what the team has been the last month. Have you been watching the games?
I sit behind the plate, I have as good a vantage point as they show on TV. What they miss is a quality top of the rotation (1-3) They have some depth but it’s Bum and a “bunch of guys”.
They aren’t constructed to win at home, their power doesn’t play there (too LHH) and the juiced ball is benefiting visitors more than SFG.. Their less than a MLB OF in April hurt, their god awful SP in May was a killer to this season.
They’ve had a nice hot streak, Dickerson is proving to be a solid anchor to their lineup but think back to the NYY series at home or the recent LAD road series, there’s a gap in talent that the teams needs to over come. There are “win now” teams that will be adding and if you don’t sell then you must add, who are the SFG gonna trade?
Bart?
Ramos?
….
The new hard trade deadline makes this decision even easier.
Good points, but how they played against the Yankees in a 3 game series, when they were a different team, tells you nothing. And so far the Giants are 5-7 against Dodgers. Yes LA has the edge, but that’s hardly domination.
Cueto should be back to give them a chance at a No. 2 starter in September.
The home record is baffling. I think Bochy should take some of the blame since he doesn’t take park into account when he’s managing. They used to lose on the road cuz they couldn’t hit. Now they lose at home because all teams can hit.
They don’t need to trade Bart or Ramos to buy. Teams haven’t moved a signigicant prospect like that for years (Gleyber to NYY maybe the last). They could grab plenty of offense for some AA schmucks. Think Castellanos or Todd Frazier or something.
Giants are 5-4 at home since they moved Belt to leadoff spot, though. I wouldn’t give up hope.
Sorry Jeff, but I don’t think this is a good poll, so I didn’t vote. I needed more options. I would vote sell, if the return justified it. I would vote hold, if as some here contend, that Bum will not fetch a top 50 guy in return. For me it all comes down to what selling would get them. If it’s just a bunch of lottery tickets, then hell, hold and go for it.
The whole thing with the Giants is they are in baseball purgatory, waiting two years for their old core to age out of their market-level (or slightly overpaid) contracts. Also, the biggest things that doomed them are getting Sharkbait and Melancon and tying $40M in two replacement-level old players.
The question has not changed since Farhan took the job: What do you do in this in-between stage? He answered it April with “well, we’re not tanking,” so to tank in July is even more stupid.
Trade Smith if the return is on point. Watson and Dyson can go too if you really want some AA players that badly But the Giants are going to be answering this question multiple times over the next few years because it will take some years to get even close to what the Dodgers are doing. If you aren’t going to go for the playoffs in July 2019, then might as well tank for the next 2-3 years because this is the best case scenario for the team for the near future.
And tanking is played out, hard to do, takes years, and not smart for a big market team that spends money. Just go for the playoffs and get new players every week like you have been doing. Small incremental changes!!
And the future is looking good. 3 Top 100 prospects in Bart, Ramos, and Luciano and plenty of money coming off the books as soon as the 2020 offseason with more to come off after 2021. SF could easily resign MadBum next year and maybe a hitter, go over the luxury tax for one year (so minimal penalties), and be competitive. Bart and Ramos should be up by 2021 with Luciano and hopefully Bishop to follow soon after. This was never a doomsday proposition for SF.
I mean 3 top 100 prospects doesn’t signal all that much. The orioles have 4 but are years off due to the fact that it takes a lot more than to build a team. There’s really no foundational pieces on their current major league team. That’s the biggest issue. Their strength is the bullpen which is a bunch of relievers that will soon by jettisoned or free agents if they aren’t.
Now, they have a lot of cash and I don’t expect them to suck for a very long time but there’s really a long way to go to building another legitimate World Series contender.
Well, took em 50+ years to win a world series. Turns out, that’s pretty hard.
I don’t think they get a foundational piece for anyone but Smith, though. MadBum … maybe? But the other relievers will bring back dudes only slightly younger/better than what Farhan has found off the wires and through trades he’s made for PIllar-Yas-Dickerson.
The 3 are in the top 50 so…
Could Bumgarner w/ one of either Dyson, Smith, or Dyson net the Giants Keston Hiura and maybe another prospect from MIL?
I know Bumgarner is only a rental and Hiura is an elite prospect whose showing flashes of great talent in the big-leagues, but it’s not too often you’re in a position to go for a title. I’m not saying whether or not that would be a realistic deal, but what are people’s thoughts?
Very doubtful. I sense Brewers are more interested in contending forever instead of going all out to get what they need for a championship.
Giants fans who openly say that the Giants should trade Bumgarner and their bullpen are utterly and hopelessly wrong! They don’t realize how special Bumgarner and Posey have been for the Giants to win 3 World Series. They think that they can get some young, unproven prospects that will make the Giants competitive for the next 6-7 years. But it is not enough for the Giants to be competitive. I watched the Giants “be competitive” in the 1960’s but never win a World Series and they were bitter years, with Hall of Famers Mays, McCovey, Cepeda, Marichal and Perry never winning a World Series. There are qualities besides home runs and wins that Bumgarner and Posey have that they need to build around, which is what Zaidi has started to do and needs to continue to do without having to trade Bumgarner and the bullpen. Bumgarner is only 29 and Posey is only 32. Since the start of the Giants current hot streak on 30 June, Posey has hit .340 and remains a great defensive catcher. Similarly, Bumgarner has a 1.20 ERA even after getting hit in the arm by a batted ball. And if they had today’s bullpen in 2016, they might have gone all the way again. They were never considered World Series threats in 2010, 2012 and 2014, just as they are not now. Let Zaidi re-sign Bummy and continue to find key players like Alex Dickerson to add to the current roster then see what the Giants can do with the supporting cast that can help Bumgarner and Posey win more championships in the next 2-3 years.