There’s still a lot of time left to dissect what could be a fascinating upcoming offseason for the Cubs. Questions abound for the organization. This time last year, it wasn’t yet clear how limited the spending capacity would be. We’ve got quite a bit left to learn before we can seriously contemplate just how the club can fill its chief needs. But with the team now officially bounced from the postseason race, it seems an opportune moment to gauge the sentiment of the MLBTR readership on the key roster issues facing the team moving forward.
Looking forward, the Cubs will dispatch Ben Zobrist, Cole Hamels, Steve Cishek, and the recently acquired Nicholas Castellanos onto the open market. Otherwise, the club controls the remainder of the roster. Barring a major trade, there isn’t a need behind the dish (Willson Contreras, Victor Caratini), in the corner infield (Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo), or at shortstop (Javier Baez). There are a variety of multi-positional players floating around, but nobody has a firm claim to second base. The team can account for most of the necessary outfield, rotation, and bullpen spots, but could clearly stand to improve in all of those areas.
There’s a basic snapshot. What do you think the biggest need is for the Cubbies? (Poll link for app users.)
Just wanted to see how you all think about certain topics
1 Should the team pick up the option on Phelps?
2 Is Quintana’s option still a slam dunk with his 4 something era and 1.3 something whip?
3 Should the team try to retain Hamels at all?
4 Which free agent is the most likely target of the offseason?
5 Who do you want the next manager to be or do you want Joe to stay?
6 Could we see things getting better next year or will the aging process make this team worse?
7 Are you fine with Darvish being the ace next year or should we do everything in the world to get Gerrit Cole?
Answering most of the questions is going to depend on whether ownership will open up the checkbook or not. Unless they make a big trade with one of their major league talents, they’ll have to spend a lot/creatively to upgrade due to their weak farm system. 5. They’ll probably get Ross or someone unexpected as the trend now seems to be young, analytics-driven managers. 6. Aging will affect pitching more since a bulk of their hitters are in their “prime age years”.
How did the Ricketts not open there checkbook? The Cubs have the 2nd highest payroll in baseball.
I’m sure that he was referring to the past year when the Ricketts actually drew a line in the sand regarding the Cubs budget in regards to the luxury tax. The front office will have more dollars to spend this offseason with many expiring contracts but they also need to consider increasing arbitration salaries and potential contract extensions for their best young players who are nearing free agency.
The Cubbies have only $114 million in guaranteed salaries for 2020 and only $30-31 million in projected arbitration eligible salaries.
With only the options for Rizzo. Quintana, and Phelps a sure thing to be picked up, that is another $29 million.
That puts them at $177.5 million after the opt outs are paid.. That leaves them $58 million under where they finished in 2019 and about $30 million under the $208 million CBT threshold for 2020.
The Cubs have room to add players and payroll.
Bryant, Baez, Contreras, and Schwarber will probably be at least $40 million in salary.in total.
Rizzo’s AAV will be $10 million higher for luxury tax purposes.
Only if TR allows it.
1. No on Phelps
2. Yes on Quintana
3. No on Hamels
4. Cubs must try to sign Castellanos
5. Want Girardi, will settle with David Ross
6. Few tweaks and additions to bullpen and the division is within reach
7. Cole will be too expensive
Phelps is only $1 million. Of course you pick up the option.
And the Cubs need a starter. So yeah, bring back Hamels if need be.
No to Castellanos unless Schwarber is traded. Corner D would be bad otherwise. And the money should be used for pitching.
Phelps is $5 million.
Phelps is $1M.
Steve Adams wrote an article about it. I think you are missing his previous team appearances.
Phelps met the contract escalators and his option is now 5 million, so no, you don’t pay 5 million for him.
No on Quintana. That was a bad trade to start with and he hasn’t met expectations.
Definitely no on Hamels. I think we’ve seen his capabil8in the second half.
It would be nice to keep Castellanos but I don’t think TR is gonna be as willing to spend so no one should be getting their Hope’s up for him, Rendon, or Cole because none are coming to the North side next year.
There aren’t many good options available. Ross has no experience so I’m not sure what makes people think he is a good choice. Girardi is a possibility but going from Maddon to Girardi is going from one extreme to the farthest thing away so not sure how that plays with a clubhouse that has been left to their own devices for much of the past 5 years.
Team needs help in several areas. Full time 2nd baseman, 1-2 starters, practically an entire bullpen overhaul,a leadoff hitter.
Castellanos would be an ideal keep. His D is average at best but he provides the kind of ABs the Cubs sorely lacked. He drives the ball to all fields with authority which is something very few other Cubs hitters have done. However, again, I just don’t see TR allowing Theo to spend big on FA after so many other failures in that area.
The farm is pretty much bare and the Cubs don’t have the trade capital to fix everything in one off season. Bryant probably brings back 1 MLB ready player and a decent prospect or 2. Schwarber gets something similar to what he is, AA may have a bit of value because he has been so up and down no one really knows what he can be. Happ, Bote, and Caritini and average utility players so not much value there….
Buckle up Cub fans, unless someone is able to get really creative financially and maybe pull off one Helluva trade it’s gonna be more of the same for a while
Phelps is currently at 3 mil, and is an appearance or two away from it jumping to 5 mil. There was an article written about his incentives based on games appeared
From Cots-
1 year/$2.5M (2019), plus 2020 club option
signed by Toronto as a free agent 1/11/19
19:$2.5M, 20:$1M club option
2020 option increases to $3M if Phelps pitches in 30-39 games in 2019, $5M with 40-49 games, $7M with 50 or more games, or $8M with 50 games or more and 40 or more games finished
And since he signed in 2019, he has no prior team appearances to rely on.
Phelps met the contract escalators and his option is now 5 million, so no, you don’t pay 5 million for him.
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What contract escalators did he meet?
what stats are you reading?
Bote and Caratini are better than average bench players. Both Happ and Almora can be better than average bench players. I hope Almora is seeing a shrink. He hasn’t been the same since the accident.
Joe, Phelps made 17 appearances with Toronto and 23 with the Cubs. That’s 40 total and a club option worth $5 million.
40 appearances = 5 million.
Phelps also has a 2020 club option with different values depending on the number of games he appears in. Specifically, that option is worth $1 million if he fails to appear in more than 30 games, then escalates to $3 million with 30-39 appearances and $5 million with 40-49 appearances. – from Cubs insider.
Phelps is not 1 million. Its 3.5 – 5 million depending on appearances. He is already at the 3.5 million level
LOL! That was absolutely pathetic on my part.
Yes on Phelps, no on Quintana and NEVER Girardi!
RS fan here, so no in-depth knowledge.
1-Yes, it is a $1M option at this level of games.
2-Yes, The cost is low enough, and I like having guys being motivated by free agency.
3-I’d make him a one-year offer in the $10M range. He’s been pretty good for a long time until his 2nd August start. I’d rather a league-average SP on a short leash, than an expensive l/t contract.
4-Pending the decision on Hamels, I’d make Cole my target. Plus at least one RP.
5-Joe is gone. imo. His contract is over, and I cannot imagine they’d want another l/t contract with him.
6-You should be good next year. Your Py W/L will put you at 90+ wins. Assuming Bote replaces Russell, you have really good position players. 2 #2 type SPs, and 2 #3 SPs, and Kimbrel should really be better.
7-Darvish might be really good, but like the RS, you can’t depend on him 100%. I would definitely look at Cole.
Summary
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You have to bust the budget and pay the penalty. That’s what big market teams should be doing.
You need to replace Maddon. He’s not a bad manager, but he over-manages. For the most part, players should only play one position. Bryant played 23 games in LF, 27 games in RF, and 3 at 1B. Heyward played 50/50 CF & RF. I think you had 7 guys that played 2B.
It’s not like your guys don’t own real gloves (except Schwarber). Pick the obvious players for the obvious positions, and stick with it. Make Happ your super-utility. I just cannot see how it helpful for guys to be wondering which position they will be playing.
No on Hamels
Nico should not be given the 2b job. There needs to competition for that spot given he never even spent a day at AAA.
biggest needs – lead off hitter and bullpen.
Its ridiculous to blame the owner when the payroll is over $220 million.
just because they spend money does not mean they spend money in a smart way. Look at the Phillies.
I said its ridiculous to blame the owner.
1. No.
2. Yes
3. Hamels can probably get two years and I think the Cubs need to get younger.here.
4. I haven’t researched that, but it appears to be slim pickings
5. Joe would have to take a pay cut for a two year term plus incentives for winning the World Series.
6. Better. They underperformed their run differential by a large margin. The odds are that corrects itself. Their core players are not old yet.
7. Darvish has turned it around. If they go after Cole, they won’t have enough for other needs and stay under the top luxury threshold.
1.) Yes, bullpen arms are so volatile year to year he can bounce back and be good next year. Look at Kintzler this year as example. Especially with the turnover the BP is gonna have its worth it.
2.) Yes, pick it up and shop him. Teams are always looking for cheap arms and you could replenish the farm some if the right deal comes along. If not at worst he’s your 3-4 going into next year which is acceptable.
3.) No, Hamels has done well but his age has caught up to him the same it has with Lester. They need to either go for another starter in FA (Cole anyone?) or they need to give one of the young arms a chance to take the final spot and run with it. Having a set 5 rotation can be good, but it also doesn’t help develop your young pitchers either.
4.) Gerrit Cole is the first guy I would talk to. He’s a true Ace and if you slot him first followed by a health Darvish, Hendrick, Lester (and possibly Quintana too) and your rotation is going to look very good. I would also try and bring back Castellanos if possible, but if you go for Cole idk how possible that is. Schwarber would need to be moved however to make that work (more on that later).
5.) Joe is going to be gone whether we like it or think it’s fair or not. He deserves better for what he has done for this team, but something needs to be changed with this team and it’s gonna start with him. I think if Theo and Jed want to try and make things work without completely blowing things up, David Ross is the guy to be brought in to bring stability as he knows the guys and the organization already.
6.) I think it will get better next year. They won’t be coming back with the same team that they’ve had the past two years. They can’t. They will make some significant changes to improve the team NOW but also going forward.
7.) I wouldn’t give the world for Gerrit Cole. I would go all in for him in to a reasonable amount. I wouldn’t wanna go too long on the term (say 6 or 7 years) but five years would be a good range. The term will be the key. It’s going to be at least 30M per for him. It’s risky but he’s been so good it could turn things around for us quickly.
BONUS
I would consider trading one of KB or Baez to replenish the team and/or the farm. First, I would call Boston and see if they would be interested in trading KB for Mookie Betts as a START (more pieces would need to be involved possibly Schwarber as well). Both are scheduled to be FAs at the end of next year and both want mega deals. Both wanna hit FA and get the most money they can. A fresh start for both players and teams could be good. Helps the Cubs get the CF and leadoff hitter they desperately need (I know he plays RF but he could be moved to CF as that’s where he started after moving from 2B) and would give Boston the middle of the order impact bat they might need if JD Martinez opts out this offseason. He has ties to Boston with his father as well. With other pieces involved this could be an excellent deal for both sides to shake up their rosters
I would call Boston and see if they would be interested in trading KB for Mookie Betts
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The concept is good. Betts can play CF for you guys. But we already have a 3B, and rumors are that he is a decent hitter. I think the RS should trade Betts, but I don’t see where the Cubs match up.
If Boston does ANY deal, it should include Schwarber. Play him at 1B/DH. Trade 1 or 2 bullpenners for him. A deal of Betts before we lose him wouldn’t be a bad idea, but we’d need a plethora of “young guys” to do that. Boston is going to be rebuilding for the next two/three years, may as well accept it.
Agreed, Devers had put himself in a good situation at 3rd for the RedSox, don’t see KB being a fit there.
Sox don’t have a first baseman. Devers or KB could conceivably play there.
Sure, but then his trade value is that of a 1B with a .908 OPS. That’s worth less than a 3B with a .908 OPS. Plus. we already have Moreland with a .846. Obviously Bryant is better, but we aren’t trading Betts unless we get a huge improvement someplace.
I’d rather have Baez playing 2nd for us than Bryant playing 1st.
Bryant is controlled thru 2021. That is two more years. Not one.
1. yes
2. yes
3. no
4. probably Castellanos
5. Joe or Joe
6. the core is still young. I could see them bouncing back
7. Cole is gonna get hella paid. Maybe add Wheeler to replace Hamels
Yes, yes, no. Number 1 or 2 Starting pitcher, Castellanos, LH hitting contact OBP infield guy. Joe…….Girardi!! Better and finally yes on Yu.
Girardi couldn’t win when the Yankees were NOT hurt. No Girardi!
1 Should the team pick up the option on Phelps? No
2 Is Quintana’s option still a slam dunk with his 4 something era and 1.3 something whip? Yes, he’s still an average starter at a somewhat decent rate, and could be above average.
3 Should the team try to retain Hamels at all? No. Any team that is depending on two guys in the back end of their 30s is asking for trouble.
4 Which free agent is the most likely target of the offseason? I don’t think the Cubs should target a big free agent. In my opinion, with a weak free agent market outside of a few marquee names, the Cubs could use 2020 to re-tool and re-shape their team. They have way too many one-trick pony type players.. they could trade players like Bryant for a solid MLB ready or close to ready package. Use guys like Happ, Schwarber, Almora, Russell to acquire some under the radar bullpen arms. You could deal Lester to a contender at the deadline and save some $, Quintana could be dealt at the deadline if he shows value.
5 Who do you want the next manager to be or do you want Joe to stay? I think if they push the accelerator, they’ll go for a marquee name like Girardi.. but personally I think they will retool and use someone they can communicate easily with like Mark Loretta.
6 Could we see things getting better next year or will the aging process make this team worse? This Cubs team can do what the Phillies and Giants didn’t do – those two teams won their championship(s), and fell in love with their players and refused to deal them before they lost their value. The Phillies got stuck with Howard, Utley, Burrell, etc. Giants are still stuck with Posey, Belt, Crawford.. don’t get handicapped because you won. Baseball is a business, and sell while some of these guys can still give you a return. They had a chance to sell on Happ, Almora and Schwarber a couple years ago, but they were too high on them.
7 Are you fine with Darvish being the ace next year or should we do everything in the world to get Gerrit Cole? Cole will be playing somewhere in California or he will be a Yankee next year.
No, no, no, trade for M Fulmer or Boyd. None. Ozzie? He likes beer.
Yu stuck with him.
Yes,
Yes,
Yes,
Cole,
Girardi,
Better.
Go get Cole.
1. No
2. No
3. No
4. Probably none $
5. Girardi if $ is doable
6. Need different mind set then should be ok
7. Darvish has a opt out he might take
Just go out and get as many good arms as possible for pitching staff. Offense needs a shot in the arm and that might come thru subtraction, Schwarber doesn’t fit here. He needs to be a DH somewhere, unless it gets approved for the NL that means trade him!
1. Yes
2. Yes
3. No
4. Castellanos
5. Joe. Holding this season against Joe and Theo is like being mad at your mom and dad who bought you a house but won’t pay the utilities.
6. In Theo I trust. He’s not going to allow things to get much worse. We all saw what he did with the mess that he originally came into.
7. I’d love to have Cole, but o don’t see it happening. If Darvish can keep doing what he did the 2nd half of this season, I’m very Ok with him as the ace, and you can’t get a much better #2 than Hendricks. Lester & Q are about as good a 4-5 as you’re ever going to see. What we could really use is a quality #3. Maybe Odorizzi or even Mad Bum.
Things can not be much worse than they are now and that is on Theo
1. Yes, give Phelps a fair look at 2.5 million.
2. Yes, Q fits
3. Yes at a much lower price tag.
4. Centerfielder and bullpen
5. Theo is probably going to promote from within. My preference all along has been Ryno, but as a Fan, I’ll settle for anyone that will teach the guys Fundamentals of the game and hold them too that level of play game 1 to end of season.
6. Obviously much improved, there is no reason for the team as a whole to have regressed when the majority of the linup is not yet in their prime.
7. I don’t think there is any doubt that Darvish will be the Ace. How he’s pitched the tail part of season is the Darvish we expected.
Just because:
8. Castellanos is going to be expecting too many years and higher price tag than Cubs should consider. Heyward needs to be back in RF and Cubs should look for a full time CF.
Whether or not the Cubs look to retain Nicholas really depends on who they want to build the team around long term. I think they build the team around KB and Rizzy, but seems all the sports writers think KB is best traded. Seems to me this team was Centered around KB reaching the Major League Level and the supporting cast of Cubs first round picks to closely follow. I’d like the core left in place, but at least one needs moved to be able to upgrade the team elsewhere.
9. My question, Which of core is most expendable to trade for upgrades?
1, yes pick up Phelps
2, no, Quintana is terrible. Aweful pickup and even worse gave up Jimenez for him, who had more HR’s than Rizzo this year.
3, no, Hamels is done. Replace with Cole.
4, resign Castellanas & anyone who can throw a strike in the bullpen.
5, Girardi, then Ross. Time for Joe to go. He will always be a legend, but it’s been downhill since ’16.
6, things will get better with upgraded pitching and a new manager.
7, Darvish is unreliable, have to go get Cole.
The Cubs need to give up on some of their guys…Almora, Happ, Russell all seem like change of scenery guys. Maybe a trade for a pitcher in a similar situation. I’d consider Heyward full time in center for next year at least.
I think you have to try to flip those guys for some under the radar bullpen pieces.
I’d love to see the cubs finally trade Heyward. Would give cubs so much flexibility
lol
Happ and Almora are good players to have on the bench at this point and they can be optioned to the minors if need be. You aren’t going to get anything for them but another turnaround player.
Russell will be non-tendered. They gave him his second chance and they can use the $4-5 million that he would be paid for one or two relievers..
As a RS fan, I’d like a shot at Happ. Y’all have no position for him. Holt’s had a good year, but I still consider him a super-utility. Not sue you’ll get anything for Russell at this point.
Trade Happ, Almora, and Chatwood to Seattle for D Gordon and M Smith
Trade Schwarber and Russell to Tigers for M Fulmer
Why would the Tigers want Schwarber and Russell? They are rebuilding. They would want prospects. Russell has little to no trade value.
give nico 2nd base. spend the money rebuilding the bullpen and a front line starter. cole and some reliable arms will solve a lot of issues
someone who can bat leadoff reliably (other than rizzo) would be really nice
How about Bryant?
Dump Bryant while he still has value.
Can’t sign Cole, Ricketts won’t open the check book (even with new TV deal) plus they can’t afford to tie up that much salary when they are going to need to pay Baez, Bryant, Contreras, et al in the next couple years. Nico is the 2nd baseman next year with Bote and Garcia as backups. Zobrist could re-up on a short, cheap deal but will most likely follow Maddon if/when he is dispatched.
Biggest move needs to be a trade of Schwarber. He is not the franchise altering hitter they believed him to be and if you find one team who believes they can still make him such, move him immediately and get back a starter, bench piece or bullpen help in the process. He won’t get you a 1 or 2 like he could have in the past, but you will still get value for him.
Bottom line, they need help in the pen and rotation and cannot develop pitchers to save their lives. Time to start dealing that surplus ML talent to fill needs on the pitching staff and (somewhat) restock the minors
What is it with you people? Who leads the team in home runs? Who is closing in on 100 RBS’s? Who’s batting average has risen over 20 points in the last month? Who is tied with the “golden glover” Heyward with only 6 errors? Oh wait, that would be the guy you insist on dumping ….Schwarber. Watch a game or two before you write!
Which means he has value.
He has a stretch every year at the plate when everyone says, “Schwarber seems to have finally figured it out” only for him to regress back to what is his norm.
Yes he has improved greatly on defense and he has a great eye at the plate. His biggest issue is he believes that he is gonna get those borderline calls and more often than not he doesn’t and strikes out instead of fouling a pitch off to get another.
Other times he just tries to do more than the situation calls for. The other night there were men on 1st & 2nd and because he wanted to be the man he swung at 4 straight balls instead of just taking his walk.
Every Cubs hitter could take a lesson on being patient and taking what is given to them.
Well gee, lets just keep Russell instead.
Mistry GM thank you! Wow so many oeople just talk out of their rear end
After the nonsense about Ricketts not opening the checkbook when the Cubs have the 2nd largest payroll in baseball, I have to admit I didn’t read any of the rest.
Theo is the problem. He has yet to prove he can take a winning club and maintain it. He needs to go to Indians to tank and break their curse. He has to be considered one of the best, if not the best at tanking and drafting top 5 picks, destroying farm club and spending through roof to build a winner. But he has yet to prove he can sustain a winner without a tear down every few years. The cost of 2016 is 2019 and beyond. With cubs situation I don’t blame him for doing what he did to break the curse but doing it a different way they might or might not have won their one but they could’ve won multiples or still going for it. See Houston Astros. Cubs biggest need is new front office or hire a good pitching scout team. They have yet to develop one homegrown starting pitcher. Since Theos tenure cards have drafted and brought up 40% of their rotation and several guys in bullpen with a few more knocking at the door.
But he has yet to prove he can sustain a winner without a tear down every few years.
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I’m not a fan of Theo’s spending, but with the RS, we never tore down. Our worst year was in 2005 with 85 wins. And my recollection was he didn’t tear down the farm. We traded Reddick, Lowrie, and Rizzo, but they were all in the #75 range.
It was only with the Cubs that he started trading those top-25 types, which are much more valuable. It’s entirely possible that the model was changed to accommodate the new TV deal. Even if Eloy turns out to be a bad deal, it will pale in comparison with the ratings impact of the new TV deal.
Realistically, the cubs are in the same position BOS was years ago because of Theo. This semblance of players will only get worse and the holes bigger. CHI will not even sniff another WS. The entire team should be torn down. Yes, trade Baez, Bryant and Rizzo. New manager and new FO.
Theo left the RS in very good shape. We led the in scoring, finished 6th in runs allowed. Unfortunately, Buchholz, Beckett, and Lackey all got hurt, and Bard just imploded.
BOS had a bottom farm system and was loaded with underperforming expensive FA contracts when Theo left. Yes, the immediate season following his departure was average but the second year was a total collapse for BOS. Set up is identical for 2019 CHI.
Thro left after the 2011 season. The Red Sox won the 2013 World Series. He left them in good shape. .
Blow it up. 3rd place doesn’t work for the greatest baseball franchise ever
I’m guessing you’re a Brewers fan. You would like that, so the Brewers would only have to worry about the Cards.
Dont think anyone is worried about the Cubs there going the wrong way. Im guessing they will be at the bottom of the central in two years at this pace.
The only difference between the Cubs and Cards is that the Cubs are 19-27 in one-run games and the Cards are 25.-22.
From a run differential perspective, the Cards are +101, and the Cubs are better at +102.
The only difference between the Cubs and the Cards, the ONLY difference that matter, is 7.5 games. Not to mention 8 in a row. But keep telling yourself run differential matters if it makes you feel better
You don’t blow a team based on the results of one-run games.
So what’s your point? One run games don’t matter or mean as much? Seriously not understanding what you’re trying to say
Fix the BP and you do better in 1 run games…
Really? Thanks Captain Obvious.
We are coming for the cards next. Just need the cubs to win out against the cards. Come on cubbies, let’s win out for joe and Theo. Anybody seen dray? Guy has been very quite lately
Ha! Well since they’ve lost 8 in a row, they might just win out to force a game 163. And then either the Cards or Brewers could suffer the same fate as the Cubs did last year.
The cubs were descending this time last year. The brewers are once again ascending. Brewers unlike the cubs, find a way to win. Cubs just lied there last year and took the beating
Not to mention made TONS of excuses related to injuries even though the Brewers had the same injuries if not more.
I think he got tired of telling everyone how terrible the Crew’s rotation was
The guy just disappeared
3rd place worked well in 2015.
1 – I would renegotiate a similar deal where he would get less than 5 guaranteed with 1 or 2 options on the back end. If you have to, then pick up the option. I think he has pitched well enough to earn 5.
2 – I would decline the option and try and work out another 2 year deal, below 10 per year
3 – Try, but not hard. If he wants to finish his career in Chicago, offer a 2 year, 7-10 AAV and see if he’s interested
4 – No Gerrit Cole. You would have so much money locked in with Darvish, Lester and Cole if you did that. I would rather use Hamels money to lock in (2) 10m AAV pitchers and still have 10m per year towards/for Castellanos.
5 – No preference
6 – Better
7 – Darvish will make the turn and show up as the true ace. You can build a great bullpen for the price of Gerrit Cole.
Rico, regarding 1-3, you would only end up with Phelps.
Nick is going to cost more than $10 million per year.
That is ok if there is a free agent pickup that makes sense at under 20 per year. I rather have keuchel and gio gonz/wheeler than just Cole.
I agree, that’s why I said “towards/for”. Just didn’t want to tip my cards to what I think his value will be.
Cubs Biggest Need-MORE PETTING ZOOS!
Steve Adams let you off your timeout?
He’s loving all these Cubs articles so he can comment. Otherwise he never comments
Chooch!
Without a doubt it’s the BP
Nothing but down hill since 2016, had a great young team front office trades every decent prospect away. New front office needed might get you back to the playoffs.
I think the Cubs should not sign any of their players coming into free agents. This team seemed old and in need of some speed, especially in CF. The SPs seem to be pretty good next year:
1) 2 RP
2) CF
3) 2B – Vimael Machin
Machin over Hoerner?
Isn’t Machin a career minor leaguer?
Had to look Machin up. He’ll need a sustained breakout in AAA before he’s promoted. Plus they will probably test Hoerner in spring training to see if he can stick for a whole year.
I voted outfield. They are stuck with Heyward. He should be moved back to RF and acquire a new CF. .
I like a lot of the bullpen arms that came up from AAA (Wick, Underwood, Wieck, Mills, Hultzen) They are stuck with Kimbrel, but can pickup a couple more relievers on the market
As things are, Rizzo or Bryant should be batting 1-2 for the Cubs. Both have a consistent history of getting on base and the Cub’s roster has a lot of power to bat behind both of them. Rizzo appears to get quite a charge out of it. The Cub’s #1 priority is the bullpen and then centerfield. Improving centerfield will not be easy based on what’s out there.
Bryant is horribly overrated. Dump him now, he will be worse next year.
i think another OF would really do it for them. theor pen is actually better then advertised, and their rotation probably could have done better, though really was not as big an issue.
Their pen was a catastrophe. Far too many blow leads from the 7th inning on.
It was comically bad.
Biggest needs and moves:
1. Need two new high-quality rotation guys. Hamels should not be resigned, and Lester should be encouraged to retire. Love him, but he and Hamels can’t handle it physically.
2. Need a lead-off man, who can play second-base or outfield.
4. Need to sign Castellanos.
5. Should move/trade Schwarber, Almora, Russell, and possibly, as the last of these, Heyward. Heyward is the one I would most reluctantly part with. In return get arms or payroll flexibility.
6. On Maddon, if these other 5 moves are made, he could return and be productive. But I predict Maddon will not be re-signed.
1. The high quality rotation guys will command more $$ and years than Darvish, and I’m sure some Cubs fans wish that signing never happened.
2. Johnathan Villar?
3. Can’t find 3
4. Will Castellanos around mid-10’s per season be better value than Schwarber at a number much less? How will the Cubs sign 2 top pitchers and Castellanos with a projected payroll over $200 next year without the signings?
5. To make #4 happen, Cubs would need to deal Schwarber and Heyward, non-tender Russell. Someone might take Schwarber but not Heyward. Cubs would need to take a bad contract in-return for Heyward.
6. Unless Girardi is available, Cubs may as well keep Maddon.
Thanks for the reply. Just mis-numbered!
On Castellanos versus Schwarber, the former is just a better offensive player. That’s it. I think Schwarber is an AL player, not the best for NL teams.
David Ross is a viable replacement. Girardi makes sense too.
Someone “might” take Schwarber? Wow, you are an idiot! Cubs home run leader, approaching 100 RBI’s, young, great arm and same amount of errors as “golden glover” Hayward. Come on man, wake up!
Misery GM – I am two steps ahead of you and you don’t know it. Here’s why.
On-paper, every AL team wants Schwarber. It is a “might” because the Cubs have had a high asking price on Schwarber other teams are not willing to meet. Teams have been interested in Schwarber and would have moved him to 1B over two years ago. Cubs waited.
Schwarber doesn’t get to as many balls in LF as others. His routes have improved but still lacks foot speed. Comparing him to Heyward defensively isn’t a smart play and you did it anyway.
On-paper, every AL team wants Schwarber.
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Schwarber has a 2.1 bWAR in 2019. And a career 1.7/650 PAs. He has some value, but the AL has a gazillion LF/DH types.
Joe since 2017 there have been plenty of AL teams looking for a lefty power bat who’s young AND would be moved to 1B. Schwarber never moved to 1B because of Rizzo. With that in-mind you can add the NL teams also. But AL teams especially because they have the DH spot in-case Schwarber could not play 1B.
Lester should be encouraged to retire? I know he’s a number 4 starter now, but….
Here’s some thoughts as to what the Cubs should do this offseason. They really weren’t quite as bad as their record and I feel like some tweaks could get them back on track for 2020 and beyond. Curious to see what people think:
1) Exercise the club options on Anthony Rizzo, Jose Quintana and David Phelps. Rizzo is self explanatory. You already gave up a heck of a lot to get Quintana and essentially $10M for what he could provide is cost effective. $5M for Phelps feels fair enough.
2) Resign Nicolas Castellanos. There’s nobody else in FA that would theoretically be a better option and he’s produced really well. May as well keep that going.
3) Trade Victor Caratini. It hurts, but you need to capitalize on his value now and having him as a backup feels repetitive. Give the Braves a call about their pitching prospects. Caratini should be enticing to them since it’d give them another young core position player. Then sign a veteran backup catcher.
4) Roll with Nico Hoerner at 2nd. Yes, you could argue for signing a stopgap veteran, but it feels like a waste when you have two other guys who can play the position already on the roster should he need more seasoning.
5a) So for starting pitching, I see there being two viable options. The first is to sign Gerrit Cole. I really wavered back and forth on this as to whether he would actually be worth it. However, the Cubs need a big, franchise altering move. Yes, that is a lot of money tied up into Cole, Lester, and Darvish. However, with Lester (potentially), Chatwood, and Quintana coming off after 2020, it feels more palatable over the next few years. It forces some hard decisions later for extensions for Baez, Bryant, Rizzo, etc. but this ensures you’re locked in as a contender for the next three years before you potentially have to tear it down or invest even more.
5b) The cheaper (and probably better long term) option is going after a second tier starting pitcher. Someone like a Bumgarner, Wheeler, or maybe Odorizzi or Keuchel. Bumgarner feels like the strongest (albeit most expensive) pick due to his vast playoff experience. He would probably be the most clubhouse altering pick as well.
6) Sign some cheap, interesting bullpen arms. You’re invested in Kimbrel at this point. Build up the surrounding pen around him, Kintzler, Cishek, and Ryan. Chatwood is good for long relief. Those final two spots can be filled with veterans/young guys competing in Spring Training.
7) The bench feels pretty strong with Bote, Happ, Almora, and the veteran catcher. You’ve got two utility guys who will be playing a good bit, and a defensive minded fourth outfielder that makes up for some defensive shortcomings of Schwarber and Castellanos. I think an outfield bat like Matt Joyce makes a lot of sense as the final bench piece., though you could argue for finding someone with a bit more defensive prowess.
8) Mutually part ways with Joe Maddon. While I personally think he could be part of the solution, there is already so much negativity around his tenure that it is best to part ways. A change should signal that they are through wasting these peak years. It sounds cliche, but Joe Girardi feels like the fit here. You could also argue for the two Marks (DeRosa and Loretta).
Well said. My vote goes to 5b.
The biggest need is David Ross. Girardi couldn’t win with a powerful yankees lineup and we are tired of sabremetrics managers. so NO Mike Sciocia. Hire David Ross and we will WIN!
I’m very curious as to why so many people think a backup catcher who’s claim to fame is being Lester’s personal catcher and being the oldest player to ever hit a HR in a WS game 7 and has absolutely ZERO experience coaching or managing an MLB team is the correct choice to manage the Cubs?
Someone please explain this to me.
Sure, team leader, former catchers usually make good mamagers, the players respect him, years of knowledge and ….. Girardi couldn’t win even before the Yankees were all injured.
Catchers do well because they play a more intellectual level. A guy like Betts, for example, basically knows RF and a little CF. A catcher sees every position, every play. And since the catcher has to handle the pitchers, he knows more about them than the hitters do.
2013-2017 Yankees outperformed their projections thanks to Girardi. He wasn’t given the chance to finish the job.
So many saying Ricketts wont increase payroll. Seems crazy to me. The Cubs already have a really high payroll. I wish my Braves were pushing payroll to over $200 million.
The Cubs do have something around $34 million coming off the books between Hammels and Zobrist. Are you Cubs fans certain Ricketts won’t spend a little?
Kimbrel is taking over Zobrist’s payroll slot, but they probably have $25-30 million to spend before hitting the top luxury tax threshold.
Didnt think about Kimbrel but as you point out, that accounts fpr Zobrist money just about but not Hammels.
Morrow (10M) Strop (6M), Kintzler (5M) and Russell (4M) will probably be off the books too.
Brock Holt seems like such a predictable Cubs signing.
Resigning Nick is pri 1. Adding another lineup piece that FIT (line drive, gap hitter). Contreras is untouchable but have to deal one of the sluggers for bullpen help and a top prospect. Can’t load the lineup with HR hitters who go cold together.
Make some adjustments, build for 2021. Make a deal with the Royals giving them Happ and Schwarber for Merrifield. Now you’ve got a leadoff hitter, center fielder vs lefties, second basemen vs righties.. if Hoerner can prove that he’s ready, he can move Merrifeld to CF full-time.
Merrifield is a player that relies on speed and legs are the first thing to go. He has already shown this season that his speed is in decline.
Merrifield has played center field but I wouldn’t plan to play him in center field regularly. Personally I prefer that they sign Jarrod Dyson and platoon him and Almora in center field.
No thanks to happ ( does he play second base? We Already have someone that plays second & no I’m not talking about Whit) & Schwarber (If he’s a power hitting defensive risk, we already have Jorge Soler Who has developed a relationship with the Royals coaches) If Whit Merrifield was traded, Dayton would want actual prospects, not guys who take valuable roster space. I don’t see the option of the cubs just trading veterans & starting a new rebuild….. after all their farm is pretty bad & They WILL have to refill it in the near future.
Again, like the Tigers why would they want Schwarber and Happ. They are rebuilding and would want players with more years of control.
I would have voted for a leadoff hitter since that has been the Cubs single biggest question mark since Dexter Fowler departed following their 2016 World Series title. Of course that role could be filled by a future second base OR outfield acquisition so instead I chose the rotation.
The Cubs will still retain four of their rotation regulars in 2020 even with the departure of Cole Hamels and assuming they pick up Jose Quintana’s last remaining team contract option this offseason. However, that will leave them with half of their rotation under control for just one more season, Quintana and aging Jon Lester who does have his own 2021 $25M option along with a $10M vesting buyout based on innings pitched, neither of which is likely to be picked up or occur as he continues to lose velocity and effectiveness.
It would behoove the Cubs to be proactive in regards to their rotation this offseason be it with a free agent acquisition or via the trade route. They should also target a pitcher who can strike out hitters since only Yu Darvish qualifies with that label from their current group. Clearly FA Gerrit Cole fits that profile among this winter’s FA class. There also figures to be a few TOR’s with that ability made available this offseason in trade discussions including Corey Kluber from the Indians, Noah Syndergaard from the Mets along with Robbie Ray from the Diamondbacks.
The Cubbies have only $114 million in guaranteed salaries for 2020 and only $30-31 million in projected arbitration eligible salaries. With only the options for Rizzo. Quintana, and Phelps a sure thing to be picked up, that is another $29 million. That puts them at $177.5 million after the opt outs are paid.. That leaves them $58 million under where they finished in 2019 and about $28 million under the salary cap. The Cubs have room to add quality players.
The Cubs will have a hole in their rotation, bot not a huge one. Once you realize that Lester is now a back of the rotation starter and not the Ace anymore, the priority is clear.
With Kimbrel, Cishek, Strop, Kintzler, Phelps, Wieck, Wick, Mills, Underwood, and other young arms, the Cubs bullpen is not in as bad of shape as many are claiming. Kimbrel will rebound. No spring training and not pitching until June took its tool. He will be fine in 2020. Sign a veteran setup man and they are just fine.
If the 35 year old Hamels is willing to come back on a 1 year $5-7 million deal then sign him. If not, let him walk. Mills or Chatwood can fill his spot.
If the defensively challenged Castellanos is willing to sign a short term deal of 3-4 years then putting up the $15-18 million AAV he will command would be a good investment. Cubs fans need to realize that he is more of the .280 hitter that his career numbers show and not the .321 hitter he was in a small sample size as a Cub. Still worth keeping around for the right price.
If they sign Castellanos, it’s time to move on from Schwarber. Can’t afford two defensive liabilities in the same OF. .
It’s also time to move on from Russell.
Install Hoerner at 2B or SS (whichever Baez isn’t playing). Happ is a decent utility guy that can play Inf and OF. He is not a Zobrist, but he is a typical utility player.
Bryant, Baez, Horner, Rizzo, Almora/Happ, Heyward, Castellanos and Contreras/Caratini is a solid lineup.
The thing they need most is a new voice in the manager’s position. Maddon was great with making the game fun for a group of very talented young players that went on to win the World Series. But now those guys are veterans and they need different input.
Schwarber tore the cover off the ball in the second half (148 wRC+), so I see no way they get rid of him. It’s hard to see what changes they make on offense. You probably can’t move Heyward. You’re very likely not moving Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, or Contreras. I would think they go with Nico at 2B (he makes a lot of contact and provides them some needed athleticism) and then you have Bote and Happ that can fill in if need be. You have to sign another OF – Castellanos seems like the best fit offensively, but are they okay with a fairly bad defensive OF of Schwarbs, Heyward, and Nick? Not sure there, but playing half your games at Wrigley probably allows it. I would think they move on from Russell. Almora maybe sticks around as a 5th OF. Not going to do much better at backup C than Vic.
I think Hamels is gone. Would be shocked if they don’t pick up Q’s option. So then you have Yu, Kyle, Q, and Lester back and then you probably go after Cole. Chatwood continues as the 6th starter unless he moves to a higher leverage role (which he should have this year).
Need a LH option out of the bullpen to go with Wieck, pray Kimbrel doesn’t suck, Wick is a top set up guy, Decisions to make on Strop, Cishek, Phelps, and Kintzler. I would want Kintzler back. I would not want Phelps back. Could go either way on the other two, though I would lean to no.
This is good.
They’d probably have to move some salary in order to get Cole.
they shouldn’t re-sign the older free agency bound relievers unless they sign for a year at $2-3 million with incentives. The free agent market is always flooded with middle relievers.
2020 is not an issue. They will have enough payroll flexibility to sign Cole at 7/200+ and stay under the CBT Threshold. Especially if they non-tender Russell and only pick up the options on Rizzo, Quintana, and Phelps.
Lester, Quintana, and Chatwood come off the books after 2020. That’s $45 million for 2021 and beyond.
Cole is going to be a Yankee.
Cubs need to make a strong attempt to move 1 or 2 of the core position players (Baez, Bryant, Contreras , Rizzo, Schwarber) Bryant should be at the top of the list since he is unlikely to sign an extension. Schwarber has had a solid hear so strike while the irons hot. You can’t go with the team as currently constructed into the 2020 season even subtracting out the free agents to be and not picking up club options such as Morrow and Phelps. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and expecting different results. I am not advocating a rebuild by any means. But this teams needs some changes made to the roster. I personally believe Mr. Rickets will once again keep the check book closed even with some of the expiring contracts and new TV network.
Heyward is one of the best defensive OF’s in baseball, so not sure why you think he’s part of a bad defensive OF…
The Cubs need hitters who can produce w/RISP. The guys they have now can’t even manage a sac fly when they need one. How many times did they have great scoring opportunities that they failed to cash in? Sad. They rank 9th or 10th in the NL in BA w/RISP.
Lead off Hitter
Like Jon Lester said, I feel in a small way the same, as “he (Maddon) should be revered as a legend”. Joe Maddon yes was fortunate enough to be given a big amount of very talented players to manage, but Maddon brought in and made not just in the clubhouse but in Chicago, a winning environment.
The Cubs will regret this, I have no doubt that not just Cubs players, but fans, Chicagoans and baseball will miss Joe Maddon as the manager of the Chicago Cubs.
I say that because like pretty much everyone, I almost expect Maddon not to be brought back, but at the same time, will not be surprised in the least if he is brought back because Theo has always worked by not extending his people including himself till the contract expires.
Thoughts?
The cubs aren’t known for making good personnel moves. Brock, Maddux, Sutcliffe, Smith, Jimenez, etc. etc.
All Maddon did was win, but cubs fans hate him for being unconventional and a little eccentric. Never mind that the rosters after ‘16 were poorly constructed and highly overrated. That’s why I hope he goes elsewhere, just to prove how foolish his critics in Chicago are. Everyone outside of Chicago wants him to leave for his own sake too.
I’ll raise you the White Sox giving up Sosa, Gossage, and Swisher… though getting Swisher for Gio Gonzalez in the first place was worse than letting him go for chump players.
Every team makes bad moves. Some really hurt but some seemingly mundane moves turn out to be really good ones. For the Cubs that was Arrieta, Hendricks, Strop. For the Sox, obviously them getting Fox and Konerko to name a couple. Hindsight is 20/20 as they say.
Sosa wasn’t a mistake. He was a nice OF that turned into perhaps the biggest fraud in mlb history. His career stats almost entirely owed to juicing to the extreme (and corked bats).
Yeah all he did was win the World Series then get progressively worse each year. Leading off Rizzo, shuffling the lineup every night, too many bullpen moves, overthinking shifts…
He led off with Rizzo because the cubs don’t have a true leadoff anymore (you can thank Theo for sh1##canning Fowler and La Stella), and the rest of the hitters all sucked in the leadoff slot. Many teams have tried this the last few years, not just Maddon.
I actually agree with ChiSox. This is not on Maddon but too many idiots think the best manager in Cubs history is no good. Amazing.
Heyward is one of the best defensive OF’s in baseball, so not sure why you think he’s part of a bad defensive OF…
I am not sure if you Cubs’ fans realize that the new rule comes in effect next season with a bullpen pitcher coming in must face three batters before taking him out for another pitcher! The Cubs’ farm system is shot! They traded two potential bullpen arms for Castellanos. Theo Epstein basically needs to move Bryant and Schwarber for some young MLB ready players and prospects.
Yes on Phelps and Q. No on grandpa Hamels. No on Joe. That loosey goosed stuff is worn out and his use of pitchers is abysmal. No wonder the bullpen was exhausted. Girardi yes. Or someone else with a firm hand. No on Nick, who needs a DH.
Moving Bryant after a mediocre year? Do you follow baseball?
Bullpen
Its also to re-sign castellanos.