This time last year, agent Scott Boras was waiting to see whether the Dodgers would issue southpaw Hyun-jin Ryu a qualifying offer at season’s end. The team did extend the offer, and Ryu accepted, betting that he’d be better off taking the big one-year payday and trying to turn in a big campaign in advance of a trip onto the open market.
That bet has paid off more handsomely than anyone expected, with Ryu turning in his best season as a big leaguer. Boras is understandably excited to market the starter at a high-point in value; the veteran agent tells Yonhap News that he’s angling for both a hefty salary and an extended length of contract. Is one more important than the other? “That’s like saying, with a car, do want the engine or the steering wheel?” says Boras. “You want both.”
Ryu couldn’t have scripted things better on the field in 2019. He was unbelievable for almost the entire year, outside of a few rough starts in late August. All told, Ryu spun 182 2/3 innings of 2.32 ERA ball with 8.0 K/9 against just 1.2 BB/9. Opposing hitters managed only an 85.3 mph average exit velocity and 30.8% hard-hit rate.
Now, Ryu will enter free agency on the heels of a fully healthy and productive season — and without the drag of draft compensation, since he cannot be issued a second qualifying offer. Boras says the southpaw was not only “the best pitcher in the league,” but “we’re just beginning to see the real Ryu.”
There has never been much question of Ryu’s ability, as he has been steadily excellent since coming over from his native Korea in 2013. But he hasn’t always been available owing to arm and other maladies. Ryu missed almost all of the 2015-16 seasons and half of 2018. That’s a red flag for a team considering a lengthy and lucrative outlay.
Never one to allow a bad fact to get him down, Boras posits a silver lining bright enough to blind one from seeing the storm cloud that renders it. Ryu’s injury history is, per Boras, a blessing in disguise: “He is, age-wise, 32, but the truth is, innings-wise, he’s probably about 26 or 27, because he doesn’t have many innings on his arm. That makes him very valuable.”
It’ll certainly be interesting to see how the market situation plays out for Ryu. The Dodgers continue to make sense for him, particularly given the team’s predilection to employ highly talented but injury-prone starters. Which other teams will follow suit, and to what extent, isn’t clear. There’s obviously both upside and downside to a pitcher of this ilk — a premium vehicle with low miles but a lengthy history of time spent in the mechanic’s shop, to extend Boras’s auto analogy.
The engine’s more valuable, so I want it. I can buy an after-market steering wheel.
The best pitcher in the league? This is coming from the guy who also represents the inarguably better Gerrit Cole.
Well he did say league which I would assume means NL and Cole plays in the AL.
well, he also represents max scherzer and he is also inarguably better than ryu.
Well at least Ryu is actually good and deserving of an analogy. Unlike Replacement level “hot lava talent” Hosmer.
So it was nice having Ryu in LA. So I wonder where he’s headed now. Boston maybe?
NYY is my guess
A pitcher over 30 seeking multiple years? That’s no longer a fit in the Bronx.
So the Yankees aren’t going to ever sign another FA pitcher? Because almost all of them are 30 (or very close) by the time they hit free agency.
JA Happ says hello from the bullpen.
@ctyank7
They signed Happ to 2 years and a vesting.
My guess is the Yanks will go for Cole, then Strasburg if he opts out. Ryu? I think it depends on how crazy Boras gets. I can’t see any team going over 3/$60 perhaps.
dark horse, Atlanta.
I hope not. This has disaster written all over it.
please no
They better be a dark horse as in Ryu’s market plummets and he signs for 1 year.
Boston is trying to get rid of payroll and already has a ton invested in starting pitchers. Unless they’re sure sale is going to be hurt/as ordinary as he was this season and ownership is willing to forget about their goal of going under the luxury tax that seems like a tough fit.
Angels probably
Boston is trying to lower payroll, not add another expensive pitcher in his 30s with an injury history.
need a player link my man
The lack of innings is actually an interesting argument. I love how he comes up with this stuff, even if it gives off a snake ish impression
You mean like Rich Harden? Or Mark Prior?
I’m in sales and marvel at this guy’s ability to spin anything into a positive for his clients.
His best work was Jayson Werth. Exceeded all expectations with that contract. One has to wonder if he slipped the GM a Cosbypolitan.
@Connorsoxfan
My retort would be “Well if his arm at ages 28-31 could only hold up to pitching 212 innings over that 4 year period then why should we expect his arm at age 33 (in March) to handle much of a workload going forward????
“He is, age-wise, 32, but the truth is, innings-wise, he’s probably about 26 or 27, because he doesn’t have many innings on his arm. That makes him very valuable”. I get what Boars is saying, but this isn’t a guy that was drafted, and played only 3 seasons in the minors before coming to the MLB. Ryu has over 2000 innings on his arm already. Over in Korea, he pitched in 1269 innings before coming stateside.
all the decent young korean pitchers pitch in tournaments until their arms fall off..
And regardless of his status as a professional athlete, everyone’s bodies start to crap the bed to some degree as they get deeper into their 30’s. My arm has zero innings on it but my knees, shoulders, elbows, wrists, and back all hurt from a lifetime of physical activity.
@snotrocket That’s a great point. A lot of times, with CC being a great example, it’s not the arm that bothers an older pitcher it’s other parts of the nobody that need to be in a healthy state to aid in the throwing mechanics.
I literally laughed out loud when I read that statement by Boras.
Age-wise, I’m pushing 40. But innings-wise? I’m barely sixteen. I should declare for next June’s draft and higher Scott to represent me.
hire>higher
We have a name for the “Pitchers Looking for a Job in March” list.
Of all the SP on the market, I think he is most likely to disappoint whoever signs him
I could see that. But I don’t think it won’t be through performance. More of a lack of consistent health.
i doubt you will ever see him pitch like he did this season. still he is a good pitcher and he can be dominant at times.
And that’s the view from the Eastern Time Zone, is it?
No surprise there.
No it’s the view of injury history!
Actually, it isn’t. Beyond looking at some numbers, you really don’t know a thing about his history, do you?
He’s on the wrong side of 30 and has a lengthy list of injuries. It doesn’t matter if it’s his arms, legs, or back because all are integral parts for a pitcher. Stop being a homer and step into reality.
Wait. Did Scott say something? Well hell, it’s fact. 600 mil. 3 years. Start bidding.
Lifetime contract, his compensation is that he now owns the team outright.
I’m sure since Ryu’s arm is only “26 or 27”, Boras will be looking for 7/180. That would take his arm to “33 or 34”.
Boras would have been great as a traveling circus Ring Leader at the turn of the 20th century.
This will end poorly.
10 Years. $300 Million
Boras needs stupid Owners to get rich. There are fewer and fewer all the time.
at least he buys expensive seats and comes to angels games about everyday. he must be looking at trout and salivating. or he must have before the extension.
That is the ironic beauty of things actually. A serious market correction has occurred—in no small measure because of Boras and his misleading antics.
The market has overcorrected. The players are getting a smaller piece of the revenue and that is not something the MLBPA will let stand. Teams are manipulating service time to gain control over young players for longer. In the new CBA you can count on a few things. One is FA coming earlier. The other is service time being counted as season in which you appear in any MLB games.
Players will get bigger, longer contracts at younger ages. There will be more players getting big dollar, long-term contracts at 25-26 or even younger like Harper, Machado. Bogaerts,.Bregman, Jimenez, and Acuna did this last year. Teams want players during their prime and that is the age 26-30 seasons.
Lol
Agree with much here. Re the “bigger, longer contracts at younger ages,” that would seem to be mutually beneficial to players and management.
Arm of a 26 – 27 year old pitcher…….good one. But the truth is………
Angels sign Cole to 6 years 200 mil & Ryu to 4 years 120 mil.
first, yes. but not the second.
Ryu will, for whatever team signs him, regrettably get more.
Cole is a priority for Eppler. Ryu will be asking for that much money, but over 5 years.
Ryu is not an ace and should not be treated as one. He is a solid two or three man on a staff and should be paid as a number three.
White Soxs, Padres or Atlanta would be perfect destinations for Ryu but be warn there is mileage on that arm even if it is not MLB mileage and the injury risk is high…
He has undoubtedly been an ace when he has pitched the last few years, he just gets overshadowed by the others guys on the dodgers
1.2 and 2.2 in war by baseball reference sure doesn’t look like those of aces. but his 5.1 war in 2019 surely looks. but then i have seen so many players outperform their previous years in walk years.
Aces pitch over 200 innings consistently (think Greg Maddux). Ryu hasn’t sniffed that.
This is stupid as hell.
– Active MLB leaders for career ERA –
1. Kershaw (2.44)
2. deGrom (2.62)
3. Ryu (2.98)
– Career ERA –
Ryu: 2.98
Cole: 3.22
– 2018-19 ERA –
Ryu: 2.21 (54 ERA-)
Cole: 2.68 (63 ERA-)
interesting!
What good does a low ERA mean if you are hurt every year? That means a pitcher with a much higher ERA is taking your innings while you rehab and help the team squat.
300 innings in 2 seasons isn’t ace level. 380 in 3 certainly isn’t.
oh boy.. Ryu is in his own league.. how happy are Cole and Stras now that their agent called them 2nd fiddles to the Korean CY
What’s stupid is when someone thinks the only determining factor is a pitchers worth is his ERA. Why didnt you put up innings pitched next to those ERA’s? Because he isnt anywhere close to the pitchers you listed maybe?
Well it’s a little stupid to just look at innings without understanding his injury history.
Uhh, that’s kind of the point at looking at his innings…
Posting these stats without showing his innings is a little stupid if you don’t understand his injury history.
Uhh, no. The vast majority of his missed time was due to the shoulder and elbow surgeries, neither of which are recurring injuries. Other than that, he’s made less than 24 starts in a season only twice. Numbers don’t tell a complete story. To know that takes more effort than running your finger down a row of figures. It requires actually “understanding his injury history.”
@BlueSkyLA
“The vast majority of his missed time was due to the shoulder and elbow surgeries”,
That’s not comforting. He’s 32, has had a few injuries that have forced him to miss 75 starts the last 5 years. No one is saying he can’t pitch injury free for the next 5 years but at age 33 and with the history of assorted injuries that sounds like a problem waiting to happen. I see nothing wrong with teams wanting to hedge on his health and limit offers to the 2-3 year range.
Well it wasn’t meant to be comforting but it should fill in the history more completely. The major injury was to the shoulder and resulted in most of his missed time, but it (and the elbow) are well in the rearview mirror now. Nothing else about his health jumps out as a red flag and by that I mean signs of chronic issues. Acute and essentially random injuries are common amongst all ballplayers. Age is the single factor that argues the most against a Ryu. All of these concerns can be mitigated with performance bonuses. I would be surprised if Ryu got less than three years and $60M guarantee with some decent escalators for performance. The simple fact that he’s a strong CY contender this year should tell us that he isn’t going for some of the silly bargain prices many are suggesting here.
@svetlana No one doubts his stuff. It’s his age and injury history that has us scratching our heads with what Boras says.
Yeah he’d work fine with the Sox as a #3 complement, whose mastery of the strike zone could hopefully off on Reylo and the other kids. A veteran mentor type (assuming the Sox dont try to bring back Q)
So so you are saying he should be paid something around 6/140 like Corbin in Washington?
Or are you saying 6/206 like Greinke in Houston?
Or more like the 6/126 Darvish got in Chicago?.
Certainly he will get more than the 3/51 Happ got in New York.
Not sure who was considered the #3 in Boston this season, but I would guess Porcello or Eovaldi. Is that the type of contract you expect Ryu to get?
Only a team expecting to make a run in the playoffs next season will pay the type of money Ryu is going to get in FA. .
Scott Boras. Well, Dodger fans, this may be the end of Ryu in a Dodgers uniform but then it’s probably not a bad thing. Teams like the Phillies may try to throw stupid money at him. The Dodgers are smarter than that.
yeah, right!
Disagree? I actually have a precedent. Zack Grienke signed with the Diamond Backs when they offered more than the Dodgers were comfortable with. You really think the Dodgers won’t do the same with Ryu?
Correct.
I don’t see him getting any more than a 4 year contact. 60 million sounds fair.
Based on his injury history, age, unexpected factors I’d say he averages 15 starts a year for the next 4 years. 4 years at 60 million would be 1 million a start. Not bad, I get $10 which covers my fuel.
Exactly. If that is considered “ace” material I’ll pass.
“But his career ERA…” LOL
The King of Hype getting warmed up in the bullpen for the post-post season. Get the shovels ready, for both the puffery and the dollars.
Often injured 33 year old. Got it Scott!
Satan is heating up the market.
Only one 180-plus inning season in the last six seasons. You better believe I would be pricing that in big time. Pay for 140 per year and hope for more.
Way to open your fat mouth again DA Boras. You screwed up both Kimbrell’s and Keuchel’s careers last off-season by stating the same thing. Didn’t work then….Won’t work now!!
He messed up Kimbrel’s career without even representing him!!!! God I hate that guy!!!!
But Boras still gets his cut. He’s an ahole but a rich one.
Ryu not even the best pitcher on his team
The angels will sign one of these guys and it will be a mistake like all the other signings they make
So signing the AL ROY in 2018 and signing the extension of the soon to be 2019 AL MVP and best player in the game today in back to back years were mistakes?
Alex Bregman might just be the MVP.
When he has been healthy, he has been a solid pitcher. The problem is he doesn’t stay healthy. To say he has the arm of a 26 year old because he’s injured so much that he lacks innings on his arm and spin that as a positive thing is impressive.
I think he’s going to do well for himself. 110/4 or maybe 135/5
Hard pass. Way too many red flags.
1 always expect to overpay boras clients
2 injury history
3.Wrong side of 30
4. Asian players never hold up in mlb with the exception of ichiro
5. Career year going into free agency
Most id give him would be 2 years $35million
Mistyped. Was supposed to be 25 million
You’re insane. Literally every team in baseball would take him for two years and $35 million, and then you went and lowered that to an absurd $25 million. He’ll get over $100 million, and multiple teams will offer it, over at least four years.
Rich Hill got 3 years and $48 million despite being older, more injury prone, and less productive. To think that Ryu will get anywhere near as low as 2 years and $25 million belies a complete ignorance of baseball contracts.
No kidding. Three-year deal tops. Never give a 5-year deal to a pitcher over 30, especially one with an injury history like his.
Hiroki Kuroda, Chan Ho Park, Hideki Matsui, Hideo Nomo, Koji Uehara, Takashi Saito, and of course, Ichiro like you said, say otherwise to your #4 (among others). Now, were all those guys stars? No, but they had at the very least respectable careers.
Darvish, Maeda, and Tanaka are also far from “not holding up.”
A chubby 33 year old who has averaged less than 130 innings over his six MLB seasons. Yeah, give him all the money, I’m sure that won’t blow up in your face.
This reminds me of some of the logic tossed around when Colorado shopped Tulo in ‘15. “Yeah, he’s injured a lot but he gives you a lot of value when he’s on the field”. I’d say Toronto disagrees with that sentiment.
Fire Dave Roberts!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I feel this wont be the only time your spotted. I shall follow your career to take down Mr. Robert’s.
Yeah weren’t you spotted hanging from an overpass on the Ventura freeway, around 3am?
In other words, “Scott Boras Is Awake”
Boras is full of it.
His body may be 32 but his arm may be 36 not 26. Like a repaired engine its lot low miles its high maintenance. The shelf life on the arm is not good.
His last month was rough, he has a solid track record of injury, there are plenty of warning signs.
How can he not be an Angel next year? Arte will think he’s stealing fans from the transplants and end up paying big money while Ryu spends a lot of time injured
If the Dodgers were smart, they would thank him for his service and then just let him go.
Go to the padres
svetlana, you forgot:
last two seasons:
ryu 265 innings
cole 415 (213 in 2019)
He will settle 1st deals 22 mill to prove non liability
Scott Boras’ clients helped to ruin MLB. So many of them turned in lousy performances or were quickly injured after massive payouts that it changed completely how management deals with the game. Now management is just interested in prospects and guys they can control for a few years. Boras is a greed machine
A lot of comments but not many predictions. Most have been either quite high (over $100m) or quite low (under $50m).
How about 3/$65m? 4/$80m? I don’t see anyone giving him 5 years, even four is a stretch with health issues. I don’t see anyone giving him $30m a year. Maaaybe on a one-year deal, but I don’t think he’ll take one, and might not get 30 anyway.
And I’m not even convinced he will top $20m with all his issues. 3/$55m or 4/$70m would not surprise me at all.
There will be plenty of pitchers with strong markets (Cole, Strasburg, Bumgarner, Hamels, Hill, Wainwright) that I don’t think his market will be overwhelming (though yes will be one of strongest.) Guys with weak markets will be Odorizzi and Wheeler if he expects a $100m contract and Keuchel if he expects much more than $50m.
I long for a day where sports agents, aka con men, are banned from all sports. Why anyone would want to pay millions of dollars to someone to be their brain and mouth is beyond me. Learn the business side and take care of yourself.
I might be misunderstanding the rules of the international turned USA market, but can the Dodgers make him a qualifying offer?
If so, isn’t that a no brainer in that they’d receive a draft pick assuming Ryu (who I think is a brilliant but injury prone pitcher) signs elsewhere? (Before June)
Peter in London, a blissfully ignorant English person
A player can only be made a Qualifying Offer once and he got one from the Dodgers last year. He will be a completely unencumbered free agent this year.
I never understood why American football caught on in the UK but baseball hasn’t.
Hello Blue Sky,
Apologies didn’t realise he’d already received a QO.
As to why American Football caught on over Baseball – there’s (IMO) a few reasons. Chiefly free to air TV coverage in the UK from the 1980s onwards. Secondly the UK enjoys “combat” a bit more than cerebral sports, American football is kind of close to rugby. Baseball close to cricket.
It is changing though – I went to both London games between the Sox & the Yanks and only maybe 25% of the crowd were US ex pats or those mad enough to “holiday” in London. I do a baseball trip to follow the A’s on an annual basis (it is also the only sport my European wife tolerates & she loves the USA) and whilst we’re still a novelty, we’re less of a novelty than we were 10 years ago.
Have met – on my travels – lovely people in Detroit, Baltimore, Chicago, Oakland amongst many other places. Was suggested I’d be shot in all of those four! The fascination for me is that baseball mirrors or at least runs parallel to an American social history. If I could get sober enough to write that thesis I’d release it on this forum…
It’d burn down! ,
Peter
When I was living in the UK for awhile, early ’90s, I did a real double-take the first time I saw all those helmets and shoulder pads on a playing field. I mean, compared to rugby, American football is a sissy sport! Funny but when I’ve mentioned baseball to Brits I sometimes get “you mean that children’s game?” (You know, based, somehow, very distantly, on rounders.) Difficult to know where to start responding to that! You certainly have your work cut out for you. Cheers!
At a tangent where do you stand on Dave Roberts?
At the original, I like American football, Played rugby for 7 years in school but in comparison US football needs the protection – rugby is played on a plane across the field, whereas you can get hit from any angle in US football. I find it weird that we in the UK see baseball as organised rounders rather than accessible cricket.
PS _ Did you try explaining the difference in rules AL to NL – that really freaks people! @You mean they play the same game but with different rules?!)
Fans want to judge a manager by their in-game decisions because that’s the part of the job they see but my view is the job is like a iceberg, 90% of it is invisible under the waterline. A big part of that is personnel management. Roberts gets a lot support of from his players so that tells me he has a handle on that part of his responsibilities. The other aspect of this is a modern-day manager is getting a lot more direction from the front office on in-game decision making than was the case only a few years ago. Roberts is definitely a modern-manager, as much an implementer of the front office plan as anyone in the game today. So when things don’t work out the front office has to at least share the blame.
No I never got much past it not being rounders. I take it you’ve tried to explain it.
that’s what Jerry Dipoto said when he signed CJ Wilson to a 4 year deal with the Angels. Angels got 2 good seasons, one mediocre and one injury plagued year that Wilson finished his career with.
Boras can twist reality any which-way he pleases, but no-one is looking at Ryu’s arm as “26 or 27.”
I like Ryu — he’s definitely been one of the best pitchers in baseball when healthy. However, he’s had both TJ surgery and his labrum repaired, along with a minor elbow procedure in 2016.
Definitely going to be one of the more fascinating FA cases this off-season.
Can’t wait for some team to pony up huge money for Ryu only for him to miss more games than he starts. It’s the same as the Marlins/Chen deal.
Los Angeles has a huge Korean population and he said he doesnt feel out of place there. I can see him going to the Angels.