Lucas Giolito‘s protracted 2025-2026 free agency stint has finally ended. The Padres announced that they have signed him to a one-year deal with a mutual option. He’ll receive a $3MM guarantee, with half of that total via buyout on a 2027 mutual option worth $8MM. Giolito can increase the buyout by $3MM based on starts in 2026. There is an additional $2MM in unlockable bonuses tied to awards voting. To make room on the 40-man, the Padres announced that righty Bryan Hoeing has been transferred to the 60-day IL as he recovers from flexor surgery. Giolito will start with Single-A Lake Elsinore and must be on the major league roster within the next 25 days. Giolito is represented by CAA Sports.

For Giolito, his second foray into free agency was not nearly as successful as his first. His 2019 to 2021 run with the White Sox had him positioned as a top-of-the-rotation arm. Among 46 starters who threw at least 350 innings in that time frame, Giolito was sixth with a 30.7% strikeout rate on the back of a fantastic fastball-changeup pairing. His propensity for fly balls (41.7 FB%) and homers (13.7 HR/FB%) possibly prevented “ace” designation, yet Giolito was easily one of baseball’s best pitchers in this time frame.

However, more middling results followed in 2022 and 2023, with the homers especially ticking up in 2023. His 41 big flies were second only to Lance Lynn. Despite a poor platform year by his standards, Giolito and his representatives were able to parlay the showing into a $38.5MM guarantee with the Red Sox over the ’24-’25 seasons, with some additional incentives and player option structure.

Unfortunately, a torn UCL brought his 2024 season to an abrupt halt. An internal brace procedure (which carries a shorter rehab timeline than a traditional Tommy John ligament graft) had him back on the mound at the end of the following April, where he threw 145 innings. ERA evaluators/predictors like xFIP (4.59) and SIERA (4.65) were more bearish on his work than his actual results (3.41). Notably, Giolito’s strikeouts were down from his heyday with the White Sox. He profiled more as a back-of-the-rotation starter than the tremendous upside he flashed from 2019-2021 with Chicago.

Despite a solid return to the rotation, Giolito suffered from flexor irritation and a bone issue at the conclusion of the 2025 season. Although he was set to return to the club after resting, the Red Sox’s early postseason exit meant Giolito had no chance to pitch again before free agency. Under the hood, Giolito looked like a muted version of his best days, but he was a perfectly adequate starter in 2025.

His fastball velocity checked in about a one mile per hour (93.3) lower than his best seasons with the White Sox (94.2), but this was a continuation of a trend started in 2022. Among 82 pitchers who tossed at least 140 innings last season, Giolito was 69th in K-BB%, indicating both below-average ability to miss bats and control the zone. However, he was able to limit homers more effectively than ever before: his 9.3 HR/FB% was below league average, and the first time he recorded a single-percentage mark in a season of 25 or more starts.

Giolito declined his end of a $19MM mutual option (essentially a formality) with the Red Sox for 2026, and it perhaps came as no surprise that the Red Sox passed on extending Giolito a qualifying offer after the 2025 season due to some lingering injury trepidation. He is the last of the MLBTR 2025-2026 Top 50 MLB Free Agents to sign, and comes in far below expectations in years and total guarantee. Even without draft pick compensation attached, Giolito sat on the free agent market well into April, despite some notable playoff aspirants like the Braves, Cubs, and Padres losing multiple starters during Spring Training and the early season.

Speaking of the Padres, the news couldn’t come at a better time. Injuries and slowed recoveries have decimated the top of the rotation over the past few months. Yu Darvish had his second UCL surgery after the playoffs concluded in early November. Darvish is currently rehabbing on the restricted list away from the team and has reportedly considered retirement. Joe Musgrove, recovering from his own Tommy John surgery back in October 2024 and expected to open the season in the rotation, has had his rehab interrupted and was placed on the IL to open the season. 2025 workhorse Nick Pivetta hit the IL after four starts with a flexor strain. Surgery is not currently on the table, but given the recurrence of the strain (Pivetta also hit the IL for a short period in 2024 with the same issue), the Padres will give Pivetta ample time to rest his ailing arm in the hopes of having him available for a postseason run.

These injuries have thinned the depth of the rotation considerably in San Diego. Juan Soto trade returns Michael King and Randy Vasquez are providing quality innings, but the back of the rotation has shown mixed results to this point. Walker Buehler, though a far cry from his Dodgers’ peak, is looking like he still might have something left in the tank. Former Rockies All-Star German Marquez has a 3.86 ERA but less exciting numbers under the hood. Knuckleballer Matt Waldron was hit hard in his 2026 debut.

All three back-end starters have struggled to give the Padres consistent innings at the back of the rotation. Seven of the Padres’ first 23 games have had a starter fail to record an out in the fifth inning. Though Griffin Canning is on the horizon while working through a Triple-A El Paso rehab, the Padres decided that it was worth fortifying the rotation depth for the summer ahead.

Giolito’s contract stipulation for a Major League recall within the next 25 days would put him in line for a mid-May debut. This should give him four turns through the rotation to build up his arm after missing all of Spring Training. Should the rotation remain healthy after Canning joins, the Padres will have some decisions to make. As MLB veterans with ample service time, Buehler and Marquez can’t be optioned without their consent. Someone may end up in the bullpen or pushed off the roster entirely, depending on future health.

For now, San Diego will be happy to kick the roster-crunch can down the road. It’s an affordable, low-risk signing of an MLB-quality arm that could help the team weather the injury storm. The deal is much in the vein of recent similar signings by PBO/GM A.J. Preller. Operating under some payroll constraints after the death of former owner Peter Seidler and the imminent sale of the club, Preller has prioritized creative, low-dollar guarantees to Pivetta, Marquez, Buehler, and now Giolito to minimize the CBT hit (the Padres are currently in the first luxury payor tier). For his part, Giolito gets the opportunity to pitch for a potential contender with a recent record of rehabilitating starting pitchers’ value as he looks to surpass his 2025 platform year for a better offer next offseason.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post was the first to report the $3MM guarantee and the $2MM in awards bonuses. Ari Alexander of 7News Boston WHDH had the $1.5MM salary and buyout on the $8MM mutual option plus the $3MM in escalators. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune had the details on the initial minor league assignment and recall stipulation.

View Comments (161)