After a 2019 season that saw things go entirely sideways in Denver, changes figure to be afoot for the Rockies this offseason. Despite returning most of a roster that managed a postseason berth in 2018, Bud Black’s club whimpered to a 71-91 record this past season and likely would have ended up in the NL West cellar had it not been for a circumspective second-half collapse on the part of the rival Padres.
Nick Groke of The Athletic, for one, is already musing on potential changes that GM Jeff Bridich could make in an effort to get the club back in contention for 2020 (link). Specifically, Groke points out several players who could be on the “hot seat” this winter, given the club’s current 40-man roster squeeze. Five players currently on the club’s 60-day injured list–Brendan Rodgers, Scott Oberg, Jon Gray, Tyler Anderson and Chad Bettis–will need to be moved off the IL this offseason, necessitating at least five impending roster decisions for Bridich. Groke identifies pitcher Jeff Hoffman as the man that should fall firmly into his club’s roster trimming crosshairs, as his age (26) and near-complete lack of production (6.11 ERA in 209.1 career innings) render his former top-50 prospect status little more than a wistful memory. Groke names ten other players as possible roster casualties, although Bridich signee Ian Desmond–who has produced a cumulative -1.7 fWAR in three Colorado seasons after agreeing to a 5-year/$70MM deal in 2016–is conspicuously absent from his list.
Desmond has two years and $25MM in guarantees remaining on his deal (the pact includes a $15MM option for 2022 which is attached to a $2MM buyout), but it may be time to wonder if the club should swallow bravely and push the ’eject’ button on the ill-fated Desmond deal. While it would be enticing to believe that the former shortstop could be on the brink of a turnaround, there would be little hard evidence to support such a case: his .304 BABIP in three Colorado seasons is only marginally below his .321 career marker, and his 2019 XWOBA of .309 was right in line with his WOBA of .317; moreover, Desmond is 34 years old, and his troubles at the plate are really only the beginning of his performance problems.
When Desmond came to the Rockies in 2017, he was a distinct shortstop/centerfielder hybrid who, despite something of an inconsistent offensive track record, offered somewhat stable value on the bases and in the field. As you might expect for a player reaching his mid-thirties, much of that athletically dependent ability has appeared to abandon Desmond. 2019 marked the first time since 2012 that the native Floridian recorded a negative baserunning metric (-1.7 BSR), while his work in the Rockies outfield was generally a horrorshow. A move back to centerfield produced a -19 DRS mark in 2019 for Desmond, with UZR also generally thumbing its nose at his up-the-middle efforts (-7.2 UZR in 2019 at CF).
Admittedly, metrics indicated a roughly average performance for Desmond in 300-plus innings in left field, but can the club continue to justify running out an average-fielding corner outfielder with negative basepath value and a bat that has been markedly below-average in his three years in Colorado? After all, Desmond’s combined 80 wRC+ during his three years in purple and black is, in itself, indicative of a player who probably should not be long for a major league roster. Add in the other limitations to Desmond’s current game, and the patina of “veteran leadership” falls short of explaining his prospective inclusion on Colorado’s 2020 roster.
It is exceedingly rare to see club’s simply cut bait on $25MM in financial commitment. Still, when winning takes precedent, there is a recent parallel for weighting on-field results over balance sheet concerns. The Red Sox–though operating in an entirely different financial habitat than the Rockies–have continued to pay handsomely for the services of outfielder Rusney Castillo; all they’ve asked of Castillo in return is that he kindly provide those services to the Red Sox of Pawtucket, rather than Boston. Point being: when a pennant-seeking organization recognizes a player can’t play up to his contract, they do whatever it takes to sidestep a sunk cost fallacy. If the Rockies plan on contending in the next two seasons, they might be well served to begin their offseason roster trimming with a rather painful decision, rather than paring away mid-20’s players who may yet have their best baseball ahead of them.
Desmond was radically overrated with the Nationals. He got some clutch hits, but was a terrible SS….just an awful fundamental player.
The team offered the guy a humongous contract. But he was so captivated with his image that he turned it down thinking he could get even more elsewhere. Instead he got a fraction of the money and the Rockies used him as a utility man.
I never understood the hoopla over him.
As a Nats fan I agree. So glad he rejected that deal. He was terrible the last year he was with the Nats.
His outlook was pretty
obtuse…..
I get the whole hindsight 20/20 thing, but is there anyone sans the Rox front office that couldn’t see this regression?
Let’s not forget that the Rockies signed a player, who at the time only had value because he played SS/CF, and asked him to play 1B – where his offensive numbers would be bottom 5 in the league at the position. I never understood this from the start and it continues to get stranger.
They actually had him in center originally
The Rockies have made numerous deals to free agents that have been mind boggling. They hopped on the overpay the reliever to pitch in Coors train and that’s been nothing short of a nightmare. The dollars on the Blackmon deal certainly surprised me (though that at this point isn’t an albatross.)
Neither is likely to generate much value, but I still believe a COL-SD trade built around Myers and Desmond could afford each team a fair-to-middling veteran backup better suited to their current needs (1B/OF and. 2B/IF, respectively).
I’d rather have Myers than Desmond. Desmond really isn’t a middle infielder anymore either. He never really was an outfielder for that matter. As I type this it’s become pretty clear that Ian Desmond really sucks. I’d honestly keep Myers. Desmond isn’t an upgrade to Greg Garcia. That’s their utility infielder. They also have Kinsler floating around. I just don’t see that being a good swap for SD
Obviously you haven’t seen what Myers has become. All that promise with the bat has turned sour and no one would want his attitude in the club house either.
At least Desmond doesn’t supply whiny quotes to the media when the team is in a rough patch.
95 OPS+ vs 88 OPS+. Myers plays average defense in LF and bad defense in CF. Desmond is terrible wherever he plays. Myers is 28. Desmond is 33.
I don’t think there is a question about who would be the more valuable player for any team that trades for either.
Desmond just provides worse offense and defense in a significantly more hitter friendly home park. Easy pass there. Myers still has some sort of upside and he’s still in his “prime” years.
Good points, jbigz12 and Ejemp2006. Sounds like together you’d do what each player’s current team is likely to do and release them both.
Lots of money to eat in Myers case…..
I would GLADLY send Odubel Herrera to SD or Colorado for Myers or Desmond in a heartbeat
off the field issues aside, Odubel is a usefule piece to a roster. Myers and especially Desmond are not
Oduble isn’t worth his contract.
Once he got the money his play suffered.
Happens all of the time.
He is not dependable.He is the type of player that the methods of the Kaplers of the world do not work on.
@agents That is not a bad idea at all. Worth a try in my opinion as well.
This type of deal is exactly why fully guaranteed contracts in sports are bad for the game. Even the MLBPA should realize it’s in the best interest of not just management and fans, but also players that this issue needs to be revisited.
Management is scared to sign aging vets to long-term deals. Fans are forced to watch their team suffer due to the player losing his ability to perform up to previous levels. And even the player has to suffer the indignity of hearing the cat calls from the fans for nothing more than a very natural decline.
Aging veteran FA’s would likely secure better deals in most cases if they were allowed to be released from their contracts like they are in NFL.
The GM knew what he was doing when he offered this contract.
The results suggest otherwise.
So aging vets would secure ”better deals” if they could be cut at anytime? Right, surely players receive better contracts after being cut and since it’s non-guaranteed those aging vets can look forward to being cut again and land an even better deal!
Clearly the Rockies management was terrified of long term deals after the Desmond contract. So scared that they signed Blackmon, Arenado and Davis to big deals.
No doubt NFL players are laughing at players of all the other major sports and their silly guaranteed deals.
Well said
Why do you think Blackmon, Arrenado, Trout and others accepted these extensions before going to FA? Because they don’t like money? And why do you think guys like Grandal can’t get a multi-year deal despite being best available player at their position. Arguably most important poison at that.
Don’t know if you understand principles of supply and demand, but MLB has a demand issue in FA. My suggestion would solve it.
Its all going to change in the next CBA. Long term guaranteed deals are not going away. They are just coming to younger players and they will be more prevalent. FA will come earlier and players will gain MLB years of service time based on being in the majors for any length of time during a season.
You misunderstand the principles of supply and demand. There are so few people that can play major league baseball that the supply is limited and that creates demand. The demand will only grow when two more teams are added to MLB in the next 4 years.
Your suggestion is a moot point.
.
The only way FA will come earlier is if the top revenue teams share their income more equally with the low income teams, as otherwise it will serve to widen the competitive gap in the league.
I definitely understand how supply and demand works. GM’s realize the value of cost controlled production, and how high priced diminishing production hamstrings options. Just look at how the two biggest FA’s from last winter affected their teams this year. Harper and Machado didn’t produce in a meaningful way. All the while Harpers former team is playing better without him.
I think there will be some FA’s who will create a bidding war, like Cole this winter for example, but those guys will be few and far between. Finding the next Acuna, Soto, and Torres’ will be the way forward for the modern GM.
Your logic is flawed. First, the NFL operates with a salary cap. The vast majority of the time when a guy has a contract and gets cut, it is to manipulate the cap, not necessarily to get rid of an unproductive player. The reason these guys get contracts elsewhere is because they can still be productive. But it is not often for what they were going to get had they. Not been cut. Second, in football, they sweat losing players a lot less than in baseball. They are seen as infinitely more replaceable, and are developed in college and come to the pros more polished. So finding a replacement for a guy cut is a lot easier. In baseball, it takes so long to get a guy to the majors. Once there they are far from a finished product and their performance is often very up and down. So veterans with a solid history of performance has a greater value. Analytics is changing that to a certain extend, but teams still are more likely to go with what they know.
I could go on, but won’t. Besides, there is absolutely NO way the players will give up guaranteed contracts. They fought for things years ago and will not give them up willingly.
I don’t expect MLBPA to agree to give up fully guaranteed contracts, but I do expect more and more short-term FA contracts with option years on the end for teams to exercise. I also expect the trend of young stars to re-up with existing team that we started seeing in earnest last winter to grow.
There are plenty of young players currently playing out their arbitration years without an extension.
COL has flown under the radar while establishing their own horde of bad contracts. MLB is having to make bad contract for bad contract trades part of the hot stove..
I think there could be a deal with the Jays. Jays take Desmond and his whole contract as their payroll is almost nothing. He can play 1B and provide some veteran leadership. Jays would send back Brandon Drury who they have no use for and would fit really well I’m Colorado. The Rox would need to attach a top 10 prospect. Jays did a similar deal with Pirates for Liriano.
Desmond for Grichuk. Need to offload an OF with a bad contract over a cheaper yet versatile player. Jays can non-tender Drury and save even more. They will love having more money to play with in 2022. As for Grichuk he will probably become a star in Colorado bolstering his stats thanks to Coors.
*Desmond and Dahl for Grichuk. The previous proposal leaves the Jays with far less talent than the Rox.
Rox would be taking on a bad Grichuk contract. No chance they part with both Desmond and Dahl. Blue Jays don’t need an OF, they need to dump OFs at this point. Rockies simply taking Grichuk’s contract is good enough.
“Add in the other imitations to Desmond’s current game”
If people are imitating Desmond’s game he must be doing something right.
I’m guessing that word should have been “limitations.”
I don’t really get the premise of the article. They made the playoffs with Desmond a couple of years ago. So there is no reason they couldn’t make them with him this coming season. And there is no reason provided as to why a bust 26-yo pitcher would be better to keep than Desmond beyond some throwaway line about potential. Older players have renaissances all the time.. anecdotally I would say more often than late 20s busts have enlightenments.
Desmond has had a < 0.0 bWAR each of the past three seasons. If you have no one in the minors that can provide at least a 0.0 WAR, you might as well quit.
88 OPS + with bad defense at multiple positions and in decline at 33 years old. The point of the article is that Desmond is getting older, worse and provides no value to the Rockies.
Dylan: your reticle is pointless unless you can tell us who the Rockies have that is better/replace Desmond. They won’t dump him unless the replacement is in place. I don’t follow Rockies roster. Colorado fans….what say you.
A roster of Blackmon, Dahl, Tapia, McMahon, Story, Hampson, Rodgers & young prospects makes Desmond’s lackluster showing very much expendable.
As a Rockies fan, I live in fear of what further damage Bridich will inflict on our club this off season…
I love the extensions and the money baseball players earn and most deserve. But there needs to be clauses written in these contracts that if the player doesn’t perform at a minimum that they can lose a significant portion of that contract. Desmond isn’t the perfect example of this but he sorta is. Too often, these players will sign these stupid contracts and coast for the rest of their careers. They are set for life and see no need to work as hard any more, and their on field performance tanks and makes it much less enjoyable for the fans. These fans work there butts off and spend hard earn money to watch these players in theory play at their peak. Nothing is more frustrating than spending that money, hoping to watch top lvl baseball, and ultimately see your money go to waste to an extent. Again, Desmond doesn’t look like he got fat or lazy, he was just way overrated after having a couple decent years…. but there are a good handful of players who this does happen too
“But there needs to be clauses written in these contracts that if the player doesn’t perform at a minimum that they can lose a significant portion of that contract. ”
I totally disagree. Players’ career windows are narrow. I don’t blame them at all for getting as much as they can, and I think there are very few players who are slackers. You may not have liked the value that Uggla delivered, but no one on the Braves worked harder than him.
If you have a beef with fans not getting value when they go to the ballpark, blame owners and management.
Feel the same way about Pablo Sandoval? Mo Vaughn? Both these guys signed huge FA contracts and showed up to camp looking like they are their former selves.
His point is fully guaranteed contracts are bad for all parties, except player agents. And it’s spot on.
This deal was one of the worst in baseball. People complain that jason heyward is bad. Ian desmond is 10 times worsr
I absolutely love the Desmond signing. It only happens about once a decade, but we still occasionally see a signing where 99% of the fans say ‘wth?’. Desmond was one of them.
They had Trevor Story, so they couldn’t play him at SS.
They had Blackmon in CF, so they couldn’t play him in CF.
They also had Parra & Cargo, so they couldn’t ask him to learn the corner.
They had Reynolds at 1st.
I get the need for quality backups, but for a humongous contract like $70M/5, did anyone think to ask the question ‘does anyone know what position he’ll play for us?’.
Desmond played LF and CF for Texas in 2016, had a very nice season and was expected to put up monster numbers in Colorado. That never happened. In 2016 Parra was terrible. The thing I don’t understand is why they signed Desmond when David Dahl hit well to close the 2016 season. Did not make any sense. The back issues came up after the Desmond signing if I’m not mistaken.
I was going to throw in Dahl as well, but the Parra thing was worthy of its own post.
From 2009-2015, Parra had a 97 OPS+. and a career bWAR of 2.3/650 PAs. They could’ve just stuck with Dahl, Blackmon & Cargo instead of spending ~ $23M on Desmond & Parra, without seemingly getting any better.
McGee, Desmond, Hoffman and Colton Welker for a handful of 18 year old “prospects”. It frees up $ and opens roster space. Some team that’s tanking would add the payroll in order to gain a top prospect. McGee could be flipped if he bounces back getting away from Coors field. Hoffman is still young. Desmond will always be what he is. 2 more years and he’s gone.
Wow
15M is next year and 10M next year with the buyout. They are stuck with him this year, hes tradeable next yr if they pay half his salary.
Players have every right to get as high and as long of a guaranteed contract as they can get.
Some do not try as hard as previously.Some get hurt more often as they get older.It is up to the GM to figure this type of interest into the equation before signing them.
It seems to me that anything over three years is quite often a potential problem for signing 30 something players.
The owners seem to be wising up and limiting their spending unless they are a top 3 or 4 team.
This also seems to be the trend over the last year or two.The MLPA should have no gripe with this movement as too many of these type of contracts do not work out well for the teams.
It is surprising to me that the GMs who consistently sign free agent contracts that are busts continue to keep their jobs.
Ian is not a problem for me. He still has good power and speed and hit some long homers this year. He is a 5 time member of the 20-20 club. He is a good athlete who can play multiple positions and even pitched one inning of scoreless relief this year. Ian is a good clutch hitter and is definitely an asset to his community as well. I can’t brag about his defense because there is nothing to brag about. I hope the guy has two more years in him. The Rox have good group of young infielders and outfielders which likely make Desmond a backup performer next year. Go get ’em Desi.
Between 2018-2019, there were 151 players that had > 900 PAs. Guess who ranked #151? That’s right, Desmond. That’s a heck of a claim to fame. Only one team can claim to have the worst player in baseball.
I do not know where your info or ranking comes from, but I do know it is utter garbage. He is obviously not the worst player in baseball-regardless of PAs.
The numbers are from Fangraphs, so they are good. The rest is a matter if interpretation. Obviously there are worse players. But there are NO players with 900 PAs over the past two years that are worse.
A way to compare him might be to say, relative to the DBacks, Desmond is better than Tomas, but worse than all the DBack regular outfielders.
Okay-that’s fine. I’m not buying any of it. Desmond is a very good ballplayer and an excellent team player with experience. Go forth with your numbers games and have a good time.
“A circumspective second half collapse on the part of the padres.”
?
Mlbtr writers get paid by syllable.
The Ian Desmond Contract will live long in Rockies folk-lore.
It blocked Ryan McMahon at 1B, forcing him to 2B, which then apparently convinced Bridich that DJ LeMahieu was expendable.
When Desmond’s bat did not play up at 1B, they moved him to CF, blocking Mike Tauchman (who also went on to have success with the NYY), and necessitating the signing of Daniel Murphy to play 1B, since DJ was gone and they couldn’t just slide McMahon back over to 1B.
In one fell swoop, Bridich managed to cost the team its GG 2B, a CF who was already better than Desmond, and additional funds on a declining veteran at 1B, while also delaying McMahon’s development in the process.
It’s a stunning display of not knowing how to construct a roster, and it *should* cost Bridich his job.
Well done!
It reminds me of the Mo Vaughn signing by LAA. Mo was put at 1st, forcing Erstad to the outfield, forcing the LAA to trade Edmonds, who had 37.9 WAR in 8 years for the Cards.