Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

MLBTR Poll: Best Bargain Bullpen Signing Thus Far

By | at

Though the adrenal rush that was this year’s Winter Meetings made for great spectating—and great content for sites like ours—getting spoiled in the offseason’s early months does make for a slower run-up to spring training. Yes, there are still some big fish out there lurking in the waters (here’s looking at you, Josh Donaldson), but, by and large, the next few months should largely be about teams making value-oriented additions at the edges of their 40-man rosters.

When it comes to bullpen arms, especially, this time of year can be like open season for cost-conscious GMs. Sure, there have been a few teams willing to spend at the top end of the market this offseason—with Will Smith, Drew Pomeranz and Will Harris all netting guarantees of at least $24MM in free agency—but many a good bullpen gets solidified this time of year through more low-key signings.

The Nationals, a team hamstrung in recent seasons by poor relief pitching, finally got over the hump in 2019 in part because their bullpen gelled down the stretch. Daniel Hudson, a guy the Angels signed to a minor-league deal in February last year, ultimately ended up on the mound for the Nats when they formed the celebratory dogpile. That trajectory from bargain-bin depth pickup to central cog in a World Series-winning unit is pretty good evidence as to why we should maintain a close eye on transactions in the run-up to camp.

So, which bullpen signing thus far has the best chance of being this coming year’s version of Hudson? An exhaustive list of all relief signings to this point in the offseason sounds, frankly, exhausting—for both author and reader. Perhaps a better format is to consider a few choice arms signed to relatively budget deals, with at least some proven track record of success in the majors.

Alex Wilson, signed only today by the Tigers to a minors deal, stands out as one arm that could deliver a solid return for a tiny investment. Though he’s not a strikeout artist by any means, with a 6.13 career K/9, Wilson still maintains a career 3.44 ERA—even after a dreadful sample of 11.1 innings with the Brewers last year.

San Diego’s minor league signing of Kyle Barraclough also promises to yield dividends—assuming manager Jayce Tingler’s staff can get him back to the form he showed from 2015-17 as a member of the Marlins when he logged a 2.87 ERA with 219 strikeouts in 163 IP. Last year represented a low point so far for Barraclough, as his brief stay in D.C. saw him post a 6.66 ERA across 25.2 innings; that ERA figure is not exactly a good omen, but the righty is still just 29 and has demonstrated an ability to strike out batters with consistency.

Like the Padres, the Reds are looking to wrap their rebuild this coming year and may do so with some cheap innings from Tyler Thornburg. Now 31, Thornburg has had a disastrous past few seasons after logging an impressive 1.9 fWAR as a reliever with the Brewers in 2016. Statcast indicates his raw stuff is still there, however, and part of his struggles can be tied to presumably fixable control issues.

Tyler Clippard is perhaps the most accomplished reliever on this list, having logged over 800 innings with a respectable 3.14 career ERA with nine separate big league teams. The Twins will now become his tenth team after a nearly decade-long courtship, providing him with a one-year, $2.75MM deal last month. Clippard was rather good in 2019, posting a 2.90 ERA in 62 innings with the Tribe, but less so from 2016-18, when he bounced between five teams while posting a 3.98 ERA across 192 innings. The now 34-year-old is probably the most stable option here, but it’s worth noting those quality results last year were undercut by a 4.94 xFIP.

Edinson Volquez was reportedly set on rejoining Texas’ staff after rehabbing himself back from injury with the Rangers last year. He’s never worked exclusively as a reliever, although his repertoire—and periodic inconsistency—has often caused observers to wonder what he would look like as a late-inning pen option. Last year, the Rangers got seven scoreless innings of relief work from the journeyman, so perhaps there’s a second chapter in Volquez’s career yet to be written.

Surely, there are still quite a few arms out there who could find themselves pitching October innings after signing frugal winter deals. Of this admittedly subjective selection of signings, which do you like best? Which other minor league or low-cost pickups do you like heading into 2020? (Poll link for app users)


Front Office Notes: Yankees, Reds, Pirates

By | at

The Yankees made the playoffs and won the AL East last year in what remains one of the greatest mysteries of 2019—after all, just how does any team, no matter how talented, win games in spite of nearly three dozen injured list placements? It seems that’s a question the New York front office would rather avoid moving forward, judging by their hire of Eric Cressey, a well known and “highly sought-after” performance coach (in the words of The Athletic’s Lindsey Adler).

Cressey, the proprietor of Cressey Sports Performance, has counted Max Scherzer and Corey Kluber as personal clients in recent years, and, according to Adler’s report, will help determine the direction of New York’s strength-and-conditioning program, along with taking a lead on personnel decisions. Interestingly, the Yankees will not require Cressey to divest himself of his personal clientele through CSR, not unlike the Reds allowed when they hired Driveline’s Kyle Boddy earlier this offseason.

More notes on behind-the-scenes men and women driving MLB…

  • Speaking of Boddy, the new Reds minor league pitching coordinator gave a talk at the American Baseball Coaches Association shedding light on Cincinnati’s organizational pitching philosophy, as covered by Baseball America’s JJ Cooper. Data, as would surprise almost no one, will be central to Boddy’s appraisal of both players and coaches. “Our coaches are graded on skills progression,” Boddy said. “This guy came in throwing 90. At the end of the year, he averages 93. What did you do to do that? This guy had a 30-grade slider based on our data scientists, he now has a 65-grade slider. Why did that happen?… We are holding coaches accountable, and we are promoting them and celebrating them based on the work that they do.” Boddy also shared that every session between pitching coaches and pitchers will be videotaped for later evaluation, with transcription software documenting conversations.
  • Former Astros international scouting director, special assistant and major league interpreter Oz Ocampo is joining the Pirates’ front office under new general manager Ben Cherington, in what the baseball man called a return to his “scouting roots” in a Twitter post relayed by Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (link). In addition to his tenure with the Astros, Ocampo has also spent time working under Kim Ng at the MLB office.

Twins Reportedly ‘Pessimistic’ In Donaldson Pursuit

By | at

Recent reports have indicated that Josh Donaldson’s reps have been pushing their asking price toward $110MM over a four-year term, and it now seems as if at least one bidder is preparing to push their chair back from the table. The Twins have grown ’pessimistic’ about their chances of acquiring the veteran third baseman, according to a report from Phil Miller of The Minneapolis Star-Tribune, citing sources close to the negotiations.

It may not be accurate to position this development as the result of Minnesota’s disinclination toward spending at a certain level—rather, Donaldson may simply have another preferred destination in mind, with the Braves and Nationals reported as two other clubs that have made four-year offers. Miller’s sources indicate that Donaldson “has not appeared interested in signing with Minnesota, and the team has begun investigating other options.”

Concerning the Donaldson sweepstakes, specifically, perhaps this news represents the ripple before the big splash. Donaldson has reportedly drawn a line in the sand as to the deal he’s seeking and may currently be taking his pick of offers structured with a similar AAV setup. In addition to the possibly counted-out Twins, the Braves, and the Nationals, front offices in Texas and Chavez Ravine may also be keeping a direct line to agent Dan Lozano.

Like the Dodgers with Justin Turner, the Twins have a proven option at third in Miguel Sano. Their Donaldson pursuit may have always more been about value proposition—Donaldson’s deal promises to be balance sheet-friendly compared to Anthony Rendon, after all—and they may simply have been unwilling to pay top dollar for a relative roster luxury. Still, one gets the sense that the club entered the offseason with ample cap room and a reported intention of securing, at the least, top-shelf acquisitions in the pitching department. The club still looks to be in good shape entering ’20, but their retirement from the Donaldson race would represent one more avenue toward roster improvement rendered closed, for the time being.

White Sox Sign Dallas Keuchel

By | at

The White Sox have taken their next step toward emerging from a lengthy rebuilding process, announcing Monday that they’ve signed free-agent lefty Dallas Keuchel to a three-year deal worth a guaranteed $55.5MM. The Scott Boras client also has a fourth-year club/vesting option. Keuchel, the White Sox revealed, will earn $18MM annually, and the Sox hold a $1.5MM buyout on his 2023 option. His option will reportedly vest at $20MM if he pitches 160 innings in years two and three of the contract. Otherwise, it functions as a traditional club option.

Keuchel’s signing means there’s one less coveted gift to claim beneath the free agency tree for leaguewide GMs, but it should bring a good amount of cheer to South Side fans. The Sox have made a substantial investment in the soon-to-be-32-year-old, but he figures to slot in nicely as a steady, veteran presence in a rotation full of youthful upside.

Keuchel may never again regain the form that saw him capture a Cy Young Award back in 2015 with the Astros. That year saw him ride career-best strikeout and walk rates en route to a 2.48 ERA, but ensuing seasons have seen underlying indicators take a more bearish stance on his value. He hasn’t registered better than a 3.69 FIP since 2016, while his strikeout abilities have generally hovered around the 7.0 K/9 range during that same time frame. Never a hard thrower, Keuchel, a sinkerballer by trade, has seen his two-seamer lose almost two full ticks since registering an average speed of 90 mph back in ’15.

Of all the players to be impacted by last season’s free agency freeze, Keuchel may have been hit the hardest. Regardless of whether teams were scared off by early-offseason demands that may have been too optimistic, or simply wary of his age and declining metrics, it’s still fair to say that few foresaw a pitcher of Keuchel’s pedigree having to settle for a one-year, pro-rated June deal with the Braves that guaranteed him just $13MM. But, after a half-season in Atlanta that saw Keuchel perform to career averages with a 3.75 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 7.3 K/9 output in 112 2/3 innings, Chicago has finally given the lefty the long-term stability he’s been seeking.

Plus, it’s about time the White Sox proved able to land a higher-end free-agent starter to form a battery with Yasmani Grandal. They were said to be engaged seriously with Zack Wheeler and Jordan Lyles before those pitchers signed deals elsewhere that exceeded most outside expectations. Now, Keuchel provides their righty-heavy young rotation with, at worst, an innings-eating lefty with ample experience playing under the game’s brightest lights. With a beard, big frame, and heavy sinker, fans of the next winning Southside team may be forgiven for confusing Keuchel with ghosts of Mark Buehrle past.

Keuchel and the newly signed Gio Gonzalez promise to provide valuable mentorship to young arms like Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech, and the mending Carlos Rodon. Giolito had something of a coming-out party in particular last season, but the truth is that every pitcher in that group may have only scratched the surface of their potential. Rodon’s impending return, in particular, should give the Chicago rotation an absolutely stolid look–it may not be the highest-priced rotation in the bigs, but it certainly is long on ace upside and bulldog mentality.

Speaking of prices: Keuchel’s deal makes him the second-highest-paid player (by average annual value) on the Chicago roster, after Grandal. MLBTR correctly predicted the lefty would land with the White Sox this offseason in our free agent predictions from November, but it seems the Boras Corporation was able to leverage interest in Keuchel well in excess of our expectations, as this deal lands safely above the three-year, $39MM contract we projected him to receive.

In addition to their previous deals with Grandal, Gonzalez, and Jose Abreu, this deal brings Chicago’s guarantees this offseason to $183.5MM in new money–before accounting for option years. Add in the projected $5.7MM award due to newly acquired Nomar Mazara and the Sox have come awfully close to supplementing their young core with $200MM in commitments.

It may not be the blockbuster-level deal Keuchel envisioned entering the 2018-19 offseason, nor is it in the same arena as the deals signed this offseason by Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg or Zack Wheeler. What it seems to be rather, is a good click above deals guaranteed to other “mid-rotation” arms like Kyle Gibson (3/$30MM), Tanner Roark (2/$24MM), or Julio Teheran (1/$9MM) this winter—perhaps fair value considering both Keuchel’s Cy Young past and steady, if unspectacular, recent track record.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the agreement (Twitter link). Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported the terms (Twitter link). Bob Nightengale of USA Today added details on the vestting option (Twitter link).

MLBTR Poll: Grading Miami’s Corey Dickerson Signing

By | at

The Marlins’ signing of outfielder Corey Dickerson to a two-year, $17.5MM deal will not go down as this offseason’s most surprising–in fact, his ultimate guarantee was right in line with MLBTR’s prediction of a two-year, $15MM pact back in November. In terms of context, the deal also sits snugly alongside Kole Calhoun’s signature on a two-year, $16MM deal with Arizona earlier this month.

Dickerson might be called the ideal of a solid regular. He’s not an elite defender, his 2018 Gold Glove notwithstanding, but his facility with the stick has made him a must-start during stints with the Rockies, Rays, Pirates and Phillies since breaking into the league 2013. The thirty-year-old owns a .286/.328/.504 slash line with 115 home runs in nearly 800 career games, with a 117 wRC+ suggesting he’s been nearly 20 percent better than an average hitter since 2013. By the latter metric, he’s performed comparably with players like Starling Marte (117 wRC+) and Francisco Lindor (119 wRC+) over that span.

Dickerson has recorded 2.6 fWAR or better in three separate seasons as a full-timer, despite nagging injuries throughout his career; if he can perform to those levels for the Fish, there should be a lot of excess value in this deal. Of course, Dickerson may not spend his entire tenure with Miami, as the limited term of this deal might make him an attractive trade target at the ’20 and ’21 deadlines, assuming his continued health and Miami’s continuation in a textbook rebuild pattern (perhaps not a safe assumption considering Miami’s similarly savvy Jesus Aguilar and Jonathan Villar pickups this winter).

Dickerson’s signing does also carry a few implications beyond just shoring up Miami’s corner outfield, as his relatively light commitment is further evidence that the ever-heightening AAV peaks achieved by premium performers in recent winters have yet to trickle down in the form of substantive raises for middle-class players. Moreover, Dickerson’s relative merits when pitted against free agents Marcell Ozuna and Nicholas Castellanos may cast some doubt on the ability of those players to secure truly hefty guarantees before camp breaks.

Regardless, Miami’s signing of Dickerson reads like the move of a team inching its way out of a rebuild by committing a reasonable amount of money to a relatively stable, if imperfect, player in his prime; the club may yet have a few more losing years ahead, but it’s hard to accuse a team of “tanking” when they add players of his caliber.

Let’s open the floor: how do you grade Miami’s Dickerson addition? (Poll link for app users)


Latest On Matthew Boyd

By | at

Trade talks between the Angels and Tigers in regard to hurler Matthew Boyd have run cold for the moment, according to a tweet from Jon Morosi of the MLB Network citing unnamed sources (link). According to Morosi, Angels outfield prospect Brandon Marsh was one name discussed.

Chatter on Boyd has been somewhat quieter than one might’ve expected heading into an offseason relatively light on clear-cut pitching trade targets. Boyd, under Detroit’s watch through 2022, may not factor into the Tigers’ next championship-contending team, making his forthcoming arb awards somewhat superfluous for a rebuilding club. On the other side of the coin, his projected $6.4MM award for 2020 and promising underlying metrics paint him as an attractive target for a club looking for near-term pitching reinforcements.

The 28-year-old has been a consistent presence in the rumor mill for a few years now, although his bottom-line results have left something to be desired. An interested club would have to overlook the fact that the lefty has yet to post a full season pitching beneath a 4.00 ERA, but Boyd did demonstrate in 2019 that there may yet be some gold within the pyrite. A 4.56 ERA across 185.1 innings won’t quicken many heartbeats, but the hurler posted career-best 11.56 SO/9 and 2.43 BB/9 rates last year; his 3.88 xFIP would also indicate that there’s a better pitcher in Boyd beyond the surface-level numbers.

Even if Boyd promises to be a solid trade target for many clubs, it’s understandable that Angels GM Billy Eppler may have balked at the mention of Marsh’s name. The 22-year-old outfielder and former second-round pick just wrapped a Double-A season that saw him hit .300/.383/.428 with seven home runs and 18 steals—production that added up to a 137 wRC+ in the Texas League. The Indians were also said to have asked for Marsh in a potential Corey Kluber deal with L.A., so it would certainly seem that teams around the game have taken notice of Marsh’s promise.

Latest On Braves’ Third Base Plans

By | at

The Braves are unlikely to “aggressively” pursue a Nolan Arenado trade as long as incumbent starter Josh Donaldson remains on the market, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported on Saturday citing unnamed sources (link).

Yesterday, our own Steve Adams explored in detail the many obstacles impeding a potential Atlanta-Arenado connection. First, there is the $234MM remaining on the third baseman’s contract; the addition of that sum would push Atlanta’s payroll into historic heights moving forward, and the club’s lack of serious engagement on Anthony Rendon could signal that the Braves aren’t true players at such a price tag. Then, there are the logistical issues of Arenado’s no-trade clause, his ability to opt-out after 2021, and the fact that his contract is set to run through his age-35 season. Donaldson, often positioned as being a bit “old” for a premium free-agent, would only be 37 at the end of his reportedly sought-after four-year deal. All of this, of course, is before considering any potential prospect capital Atlanta may have to surrender in acquiring the Colorado cornerstone.

Today’s note would seem to lend credence to the idea that the Braves may simply prefer spending payroll capital in acquiring Donaldson. In an offseason that has seen Donaldson court a four-year contract and Arenado’s name enter the rumor mill, the two superstar third baggers have become more or less linked. While Kris Bryant has also loomed as a speculative trade fit for teams in need at the hot corner, a few clubs have possibly spent the last several weeks weighing the relative merits of acquiring either Donaldson or Arenado. For the moment, this report indicates that Atlanta has a clear order of preference in terms of which scenario they prefer at third, with Morosi suggesting that the team won’t actively court Arenado unless Donaldson signs elsewhere—making the former a rather premium “plan B”.

Still, Morosi said only that the team will not “aggressively” pursue Arenado, so the door remains open, in theory. As far as potential trade partners for the Rockies superstar go, few clubs could match up with the Braves in terms of young prospect capital. When your team is built around Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies, youngsters like Austin Riley, Drew Waters, and Cristian Pache can seem like downright luxuries. In Riley’s case, in particular, it’s hard to ignore that Atlanta seems rather intent on filling the third base spot where he would figure to offer the most long-term value–even if that’s just personal conjecture.

Quick Hits: Shaw, Red Sox, Flexibility, Indians

By | at

Alex Speier of The Boston Globe noted on Saturday that the Red Sox were interested in bringing back Travis Shaw before the third baseman signed a one-year, $4MM deal with the Jays. Boston wasn’t prepared to make Shaw an offer without first moving salary via trade, so the corner infielder went elsewhere in the division, Speier says. We heard during Shaw’s brief time on the open market that as many as 14 teams were interested in acquiring his services, so the real takeaway seems to be just how tightly Boston may be constricted by payroll this winter. It’s also been widely understood that CBT concerns would limit the club in 2020, but an aversion to bringing in a player on even a $4MM deal may signal, by my own speculation, that the club may well be limited to minor league deals or near-minimum guarantees from here until camp breaks.

Two more items from around the game…

  • In the same piece, Speier penned a thoughtful exploration of the changing shape of roster construction around the game. Although emphasis has increasingly been placed on young, cost-controlled talent in recent years, especially in the wake of the Cubs’ and Astros’ successful full-scale rebuilding efforts, several young superstars have ended up on the trade block this winter. Mookie Betts, Carlos Correa, and Francisco Lindor have all been involved in trade rumors to varying degrees, a development that may have been unthinkable when those players broke into the game just a few years ago. As Speier puts it, “the openness of recent title contenders to such drastic roster shakeups reflects a late stage in the development of homegrown cores in an era where teams are treating the luxury tax as a major constraint.”
    Building teams around waves of young talent may only leave cost-conscious teams with a three-year window of payroll flexibility, as collective arb raises can trigger payroll bumps in the tens of millions in a single offseasons. If, as most teams built around youth movements have done, those early minimum-salary seasons are supplemented by major free agent signings, then the payroll crunch gets all the more severe by year four or five of a team’s window. The circumvention around this, of course, is the early-career extension, which, as Speier points out, the Sox used to a happy end with Dustin Pedroia and Jon Lester toward the end of the last decade; it’s fair to wonder whether the current “crunch” facing several competitive teams is only going to make early extensions all the more conventional. Two teams currently built around young talent–Seattle and Atlanta—come to mind as two examples of clubs that may be trying to get ahead of the curve in that regard.
  • The Indians received a fair amount of criticism in the wake of the Corey Kluber trade—with many naysayers bemoaning the club’s $40MM-plus payroll drop since 2017. However, as Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com puts it, perhaps the Tribe has earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to how they approach putting together a pitching staff. While giant-dollar deals for free agent pitchers have been issued liberally this winter, Cleveland will head into the 2019 season with a largely near-minimum staff. While some may read the club’s decision to unload Trevor Bauer and Corey Kluber as a sign of mere cheapness, Hoynes notes that the team received the bulk of its 2019 starts (113) from pitchers making the major-league minimum ($550k) or just over it—and to generally great success. With seven straight winning seasons built mainly around on-the-cheap pitching acquisitions, the Indians may simply be placing greater faith in their player development abilities than anything else. By my own addition, it may serve to remember that Kluber and Bauer were both generally unproven youngsters when they first arrived in Cleveland.

Giants, Tony Watson Reach New Deal

By | at

December 22: As it turns out, Watson actually didn’t exercise his player option; rather, he and the Giants negotiated a new deal that will pay him $3MM in 2020, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network. He’ll still have the chance to earn $4MM worth of incentives, bringing his potential 2020 earnings to a total of $7MM.

November 2: Giants reliever Tony Watson has exercised his player option for 2020 with San Francisco, according to Kerry Crowley of Bay Area News Group (link).

Watson arrived in San Fran in 2018 via a modest two-year, heavily incentivized deal that promised him a combined $6.5MM over the first two years of the deal, with a 2020 option attached. Watson’s option for 2020 is guaranteed at $2.5MM, and Bob Nightengale of USA Today relays that Watson will have the opportunity to earn $7.5MM total in 2020 via incentives (link); At the time of the deal’s signing, it was reported that Watson had the ability to earn $14MM over two years or $21MM for three years, depending on escalators and performance bonuses.

Regardless of the particularities of his salary structure, this offseason would have likely marked an inopportune time for the 34-year-old Watson to hit the open market. 2019 marked the lefty’s first season pitching to an ERA in excess of 4.00, and he also logged some of the lowest strikeout totals (6.83 K/9) of his career in the process. Worse yet, a broken wrist ended his season prematurely in early September.

Of course, between 2013 and 2018 Watson was one of the game’s most reliable southpaw bullpen arms, recording a 2.46 ERA in 424.2 innings with the Pirates and the Dodgers. Now, the Boras client can suit up for San Francisco for one more go-around in 2020 in hopes of recapturing that old form and reentering the market again in advance of the 2021 season.

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Dallas Keuchel Deal

By | at

Dallas Keuchel is the newest member of the White Sox, courtesy of a three-year, $55.5MM deal with a vesting option that could push the final value of the deal to 4/$74MM. At 31 years old, Keuchel can’t be called an upside play, nor is he likely, given recent performance, to repeat the kind of output that saw him earn a Cy Young award back in 2015. But, in committing multiple years and an $18.5MM AAV to the lefty, the White Sox seemed to, for the moment, answer an age-old question: just what is the value of “pretty good”, anyway?

For front offices in recent offseasons, “pretty good” has seemed to be a non-starter. When Keuchel was on the market just last winter, more than a few observers offered opinions on why the lefty struggled to find a long-term deal: there was the dip in velocity; the mid-3.00 FIPs; a resounding lack of strikeout oomph. Few argued that Keuchel was an incompetent pitcher, but words like “impact”, “upside”, and “premier” were not what one would have ascribed to him. A year later, debate will likely still follow his receipt of a deal that, if vested, will be within throwing distance of a $100MM.

Then again, if the case of Dallas Keuchel and his recent forays into the open market say anything, the commentary may be more about the current qualifying offer system than anything else. Sure, one could argue that the prorated, one-year, $13MM deal he signed with the Braves last year was of the “prove it” variety— a chance to show that downward trends in velocity and underlying metrics wouldn’t threaten his bottom-line results. But did Keuchel really prove that in 2019?

Across 112.2 innings with Atlanta, Keuchel basically pitched to career averages. His 3.72 ERA (3.67 career ERA), 7.27 K/9 (7.16 career K/9), and 60.1% GB rate (58.9% career GB rate) in 2019 were all in keeping with his broader body of work, if not slightly better. Meanwhile, he continued to show diminished velocity (88.3 mean mph in 2019) and his 4.72 FIP would tell you he was somewhat benefitted by the defense playing behind him in Atlanta—leaving some remaining question as to whether his performance is sustainable. Basically, Keuchel is the same guy who entered last offseason in search of a long-term deal—except one year older, and, perhaps more critically, free of a QO. For those inclined to criticize this deal as an overpay based on what the lefty received last offseason, it would pay to bear that in mind.

Within the context of this offseason, Keuchel checks in comfortably below what Madison Bumgarner received from Arizona. That five-year, $85MM was slightly lighter in terms of AAV, although that was likely a secondary consideration with respect to the opportunity to maximize guaranteed dollars—plus, we know Bumgarner was rather adamant about ending up in Arizona and may have left richer offers on the table. Meanwhile, it trumps what Kyle Gibson earned, and is miles above the one-year, $9MM guarantee that Julio Teheran—another player comfortably within the hall of pretty good—received from Los Angeles. This may not register as brilliant analysis, but, for the moment, Keuchel’s deal seems to occupy its own little window in the winter of 2019-2020.

For a relatively recent precedent, we might look, perhaps a bit ironically, to the four-year, $67.5MM contract Nathan Eovaldi drew from the Red Sox in the very same offseason that saw Keuchel left out in the cold. Eovaldi was likely able to earn that sum because of his relative youth, postseason performance, and, of course, premier amounts of impact/upside. Keuchel was lacking in a few of those departments last offseason, but, then again, he offered a few things Eovaldi did not: a broad track record of stability, numerous 30-start seasons, and a sinker-based repertoire that may prove more immune to season-over-season vagaries. He may lack Eovaldi’s horizon, but he offers a “pretty good” floor. That Keuchel should ultimately line up alongside Eovaldi in terms of AAV is perhaps a fitting commentary on his value.

So, what say you? Is this an overpay for veteran stability or a reasonable investment in the market’s mid-point? Just what is the value of pretty good, anyway? (Poll link for app users)


MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

hide arrows scroll to top