Phillies righty Jake Arrieta won’t exercise the opt-out clause in his contract, keeping him in his deal with the Phillies for the 2020 season, the Associated Press reports. Arrieta will earn $20MM for the 2020 season, the final year of the three-year, $75MM pact he signed with Philadelphia in March 2018.
MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported in October that Arrieta was going to remain with the Phillies, and indeed, it became increasingly obvious throughout the veteran right-hander’s injury-marred year that the opt-out clause wouldn’t be a factor. Arrieta revealed in July that he was trying to keep pitching despite suffering from a bone spur in his throwing elbow, and while he toughed it out as long as possible, Arrieta eventually hit the injured list in mid-August and soon underwent season-ending surgery.
The end result was a 4.64 ERA, 2.16 K/BB rate, and 7.3 K/9 over 135 2/3 innings for Arrieta, easily his least-impressive performance since his early-career struggles as a member of the Orioles in 2010-12. Arrieta posted by far the largest hard-hit ball (38%) and home run (19.4%) percentages of his career, while his 7.1% swinging-strike rate was the third-lowest total of his career.
Arrieta’s stay in the 2017-18 free agent market was a lengthy one, as he was hampered by the qualifying offer and a feeling amongst some teams that he was beginning to a decline following a good but not great 2017 season with the Cubs. Over two seasons with the Phillies, Arrieta has a 4.26 ERA, 7.2 K/9, 51.4% grounder rate, and 2.30 K/BB rate — decent numbers, though hardly what the Phils expected from a pitcher earning $25MM in average annual value.
The best-case scenario for Arrieta and the Phillies is that the bone spur was the root cause of his struggles, and he’ll rebound for a healthy and productive age-34 season. That would be a welcome boost to a Phillies team that was let down by its starting pitching almost across the board last season, though Philadelphia is expected to be pursuing some upgrades this winter. A good year from Arrieta would also increase his chances at another multi-year in free agency next offseason, as a repeat of his 2019 numbers would likely limit his market to only one-year offers.
Of course he did
Paging Doctor Price…your first patient is ready for you….
Wonder if he’ll bounce back and become an Oriole or a Cub again?
Well color me shocked.
That contract made no-sense the day it was signed. Everyone knew his elbow was damaged.
Unfortunately, it was a contract the Phillies needed to sign. They were desperate for starting pitching, and they still are. Arrieta is still the team’s 2nd best starter which is sort of embarrassing.
You probably forgot about Eflin.
Eflin stinks.
Why do people still drop Eflins name? 5th starter at best.
People mention Eflin because outside of Nola of course he’s been our best young pitcher. Not a top of the rotation guy, but his splits show what he can be.
Once he stopped pitching how Chris Young wanted, and went back to what he was comfortable doing, he was successful.
I genuinely wonder if he’s still peeved about not getting that 6-year deal he wanted.
“I can play until im 40”
I think he’ll have a great year.
Jon Heyman is so smart. Nobody could have figured it out but him.
Jon Heyman is a huge dooooouche
My hope is that Arrieta is a solid #4 in 2020. For that to be the case, the Phillies need to sign at least 2 solid starting pitchers in the offseason. As bad as Arrieta was, he was still the Phillies 2nd or 3rd best starter in 2019. They need help.
i think if he is healthy he can be a 4/5, which is managable all things considering.
i’ll take a backend innings eater with a high 3/low 4 ERA. i think that’s his ceiling at this point. at least it was only a 3 year contract and tbh i gotta give credit to ownership for making the move in the first place. they knew full well we werent going to be contending in 2018 and instead of pocketing the money and completely tanking the season away they went out and spent some money on a guy that could be useful on the next philly contender even if he was going to be overpaid for that year(s)
He very well may bounce back without the elbow issue. He was worth nearly 3 WAR in 2018 which I think he could get back too. Certainly not great but not bad either
I wish the best for him with his recovery and that he has a solid bounce back season. Great guy and he was phenomenal with the Cubs.
Saying Arrieta will “earn” $20m next year is strong.
And people itching to give Cole 8 years….
Power pitchers age better than finesse pitchers. A couple ticks down from 100mph is still mid nineties.
Mid-nineties ain’t what it used to be.
How many power pitchers can you name that aged well once they’ve lost their fastball? How many are right handed? But if you want the best players on the market you gotta pay the premium or else pitching contracts going to become something crazy like 3/$150M
not that im taking a side in this but i can name at least 1 right handed power pitcher that aged well even though he lost quite a few ticks off his fastball and he’s a pretty good comparison for cole. roger clemens
PEDs helped Clemens rebound
rebound?when was the fall off?i’d also like to point out that he continued pitching at a strong level after they started testing as well
would a justin verlander comparison be better for u? he doesnt throw as hard as he did in his prime but he’s just as effective as ever
Good question.
– Nolan Ryan
Nolan Ryan
people keep saying nolan ryan when asked about an effective power pitcher who lost zip on his fastball succeeding but…did nolan ever even lose velocity?guy can probably still sling it 100mph today xD
The Angels…they will not learn.
That’s an expensive price tag for a number 4 guy SMH. This guy is a cancer, and has been since he came to Philly. All the guy does is poke his nose in stuff that doesn’t concern him. It would be one thing if he actually backed up his pitching. Hopefully he actually has a somewhat half decent season…either way I’ll be happier once his contract is up and we can use that money for an actual productive arm
Like who?
Perhaps Bauer next year?
His signing was similar to the Harper signing in that it was a signal to the Philly fans that Philadelphia was serious about putting a winning team on the field ASAP
SHOCKING!
Sarcasm alert!
Jake lost it in 2018 talking directly about the Phillies poor use of analytics in positioning the defense, and indirectly about the porous defense.
The rap on the poor use of analytics was puzzling, as that was supposed to be the strong point of the Phillies FO – surely their acumen in acquiring and developing a team of winning position players based on talent and the execution of fundamentals was non-existent.
In 2019 the Phillies brought Segura in to play SS and Harper RF. Both are well below average at their positions. They have an exceptional C in Realmuto, and a decent CF in Adam Haseley if he can adjust to ML pitching enough to play 100 games in 2020. But that defense needs improvement – at SS, 3B, 2B, 1B, and possibly LF (they’re stuck with Harper in RF).
Defense supports pitchers. Sure, last years pitching coach stunk. But that defense did more to break down that staff then any other variable. While injuries obviously caused Jake problems in 2019, there’s no reason – if semi-healthy – that he shouldn’t be a decent innings eater that keeps them in games in 2020….IF they do something about that awful defense. As with Harper, they’re stuck with the contract and need to make the best of the situation.
Move Segura to second, get Iglesias at short. Or Didi but maybe that wouldn’t help the D a ton.
Harper’s defense was pretty solid. He was a golden glove nominee. But your other points make a ton of sense.
Girardi will help with positioning and he’s also accomplished at massaging old arms through a long season.
Duh….this just in too…water’s wet…
The Phillies actually paid this bum $30 million dollars in his first year with them!!?? Talk about stupid money!
This guy is done! Minor league offers after this, if his ego can handle it!
Jake was really solid 3-5 years ago. He will pitch another season or two, that’s about it.
The signing was a “statement signing” most knew it would never bear the fruit of the $ amount….. It said that Philly was back and ready to contend…for better or worse.
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I think this is mostly right. They probably signed Jake hoping he would be the anchor to the pitching staff the way Lester did for the Cubs. He didnt need to be the ace but just brought along some post season experience.
Pretty sure he had an operation on his left knee before last season. Pitching on an injured elbow was stupid as stupid gets because if he misses time this season because he wanted to pitch injured, let’s just hope he gets hot around all Star break so we have something to trade. This guy was a 4era pitcher when we signed him if you couldn’t see that you didn’t watch his downfall into mediocrity.
Easy decision for him. As a Braves fan, I’m gold he’s soaking up a lot of the Phillies money and underperforming …. as a baseball fan, wouldn’t mind seeing this guy pitch elite again (albeit not against the Braves)
If Eflin and Arrieta become the Phillies #4 and #5 starters, I’ll be pleased. That’ll mean Klentak went out a signed two starters, something we desperately need.
Maybe Cigar Guy is out of “stupid money” to spend on Gerrit Cole, but if some “almost stupid” money is lying around and that gets us Zach Wheeler and Cole Hamels, to fill the #2 and #3 slots, I’ll be pleased. Note I said, pleased, and not I’m-over-the-moon excited.
The NL East could be up for grabs is the Nats come into 2020 without Stephen Strasburg and Anthony Rendon. They’d still have a good team, but losing those two players is devastating. Could be even more “up for grabs” if somehow Rendon ends up with the Phillies.
If that’s the case nl east is already up for grabs seeing that the nats weren’t division champs. Phillies improve, Mets improve, Marlin’s can’t get worse and there is still reigning division champs the Braves.
i was with u until the 2 pitchers u mentioned for hamels and wheeler. there’s enough injury concerns on the roster and besides that i’m not sure hollywood is a #3 pitcher anymore. regardless, there’s plenty of quality pitching on the market this year and whether they go huge on stras or cole or not they need 2 starters as far as im concerned. i think we need 2 backend relievers as well, not necessarily closers but 6th/7th/8th inning guys. i think VV can fill 1 of those roles but i wouldnt go into the season banking on him in high leverage situations either
Hamels was great from the time he joined the Cubs in 2018 until he had that oblique injury last year. JMHO, but I think Hamels still has a lot in his tank. As for Wheeler, all the Met pitchers, save for deGrom, regressed last year under Callahan’s tutoring. Even Noah Syndergaard. Wheeler was great in 2018. Don’t know what he was doing differently last year, but he’s still a quality arm.
Would like to see the Phillies sign two of the lesser elite starting pitchers, and if Cigar Guy is gonna spend big cheese this year, spend it on Anthony Rendon.
i’m with ya on the “spread it around” philosophy i just dont agree on the specific players. i do think cole has something left in the tank and will be a quality pitcher for at least 2 more years if he wants to but when u get older those “little” injuries take longer to heal and happen more often. we need stability, another guy who’s gonna make AT LEAST 28 starts and i think banking on cole to do that is riskier than i’d like. in that same regard, i think wheeler’s injury history makes him too risky as well(not that u dont accept risks with all pitchers,especially FA pitchers). im not exactly sold on bumgardner’s “bounceback” either for what it’s worth. so where does that leave us? odorizzi? kyle gibson?im not exactly sure yet tbh
A remarkable career that spiked very high for a short time. During his second half of 2015 he was as good as any pitcher in history. From 2014-2017 he was very good. Everything before and after is average at best.
Best comps I can come up with are Mike Scott back in late 80’s and Pat Hentgen in late 90’s. Maybe for those of us who are really old school I could add Randy Jones back in the late 70’s.
He ran out of…juice…and his arm fell off, pretty obvious he’s not opting out.