The Nationals continue to lean Joe Ross’ direction for their fifth starter spot, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter). The Nats’ organization has long been enamored with Ross’ potential. But it’s been a long and winding road.
Injuries and poor performance had all but done in Ross in the first half of 2019. Austin Voth and Erick Fedde were both getting starts ahead of him, and a stint as a long man out of the pen proved disastrous. He posted an 11.17 ERA/6.27 FIP in 19 1/3 innings out of the bullpen. A .415 BABIP didn’t help matters, nor did Freddie Freeman and the Braves, who blew him up for four earned runs in one inning on June 22nd, an outing that resulted in Ross’ demotion to the minors.
Then, with the Nats playing like one of the best teams in baseball, ace Max Scherzer missed the first three weeks of August. Ross stepped in. Surprisingly, he didn’t miss a beat. He made eight starts the rest of the way with a 2.75 ERA over 39 1/3 innings. The Nats went 7-1 in those games.
What Ross found, and what the Nats saw in him, wasn’t just a solid stretch of games. It was a return to his roots. He came into the league in 2015 as a two-pitch pitcher: sinker and slider. He added a change-up for 2016. Over those first two seasons, he had a 3.52 ERA/3.46 FIP over 181 2/3 innings. But injuries piled up, culminating in Tommy John surgery in 2017. He made just 16 starts in 2017-18 covering 89 2/3 innings with a 5.02 ERA/5.14 FIP.
Those were injury-riddled seasons, but something else happened those two seasons. Ross started to re-work his pitch mix, relying less on his sinker. Instead of 54% sinkers, 38% sliders, and 8% change-ups, Ross threw 47% sinkers, 35% sliders, 11% change-ups, and 8% four-seamers. In three starts after returning from Tommy John in 2018, however, his four-seam usage jumped to 30.4% – his most-used offering.
Ross started the same way in 2019 – with lots of fastballs. Over the final two months, however, he returned to a sinker-heavy approach, dropping his fastball usage to 15.1% in August and 21.6% in September. It took Ross awhile to find his sinker again after returning from injury, but he found it in August 2019.
His fastball, of course, does serve a function. It has the potential to be a better swing-and-miss offering than his sinker. His heater generated a 22.8% swing-and-miss rate in 2019 to just 14.9% on his sinker. His most important pitch might be his change-up, an area of specialty for new pitching coach Jim Hickey.
After opting out of the 2020 season, Ross made his first spring start yesterday, tossing 39 pitches against the Mets. Ross spoke about rushing, missing high with his fastball, and trying to focus on his change-up, per MLB.com’s Jessica Camerato.
Manager Davey Martinez hopes to get him closer to 50 pitches in his second outing. If Ross can build up his stamina and avoid injury, he’s going to be the Nats’ fifth starter. The inside track is his.
From the outside, it’s easy to see Ross’ 5.21 ERA/4.91 FIP since 2017, and question whether he’s the best option. But the decision-makers in Washington likely remember the best of Ross. Martinez leaned on him down the stretch in their title-winning season. He called on Ross the morning of game five and pushed him into emergency duty, again, when Scherzer woke up unable to lift his arm. The Nats lost that game, but Ross gave them five innings just two days after throwing 19 pitches in game three.
GM Mike Rizzo knows the best parts of Ross as well. He is, after all, the GM who acquired him. What’s more, the deal that brought Ross to Washington is one of the most successful trades on Rizzo’s lengthy resume. That was the same deal that would eventually deliver Trea Turner as a player to be named later.
There’s a lot of history there. Ross was 21-years-old when Rizzo acquired him. The Nationals have invested a lot of time into his development, and if he can be the guy the organization thinks he can be, he’ll be a steal while making just $1.5MM in 2021. He even has one season of arbitration remaining after 2021.
In tracing Ross’ journey with Rizzo over these past six years, it’s easy to see just how muddying the human element of the game can be. One could look at the projections for Ross, 1.1 fWAR by STEAMER, 0.5 fWAR by ZiPS, and see not much upside. Especially for a Nats’ team that hopes to return to contention in a crowded NL East. For Rizzo, Martinez, and Ross, however, the upside is more than a few wins above replacement. It’s redemption. It’s mentorship and perseverance and the culture of their club. It’s validation all around.
Over the past couple of years, the Nats made headlines by letting superstars Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon walk in free agency. But as an organization, the Nats like to believe in their people. Ask Ryan Zimmerman, who’s been with the team for 15 years. Or Aaron Barrett, whom the Nats helped return to the bigs after a four year absence and two gruesome injuries. Or even Stephen Strasburg, whom the Nats famously tried to protect by keeping him out of the playoffs because they believed that was best for his long-term health.
It’s not surprising, then, that the Nationals want to believe in Ross. They’re going to give him every opportunity to break camp as their fifth starter. He’s also out of options, which serves as a nice metaphor while also describing his roster status. If he’s not able to put it all together this season, Rizzo and the Nats might finally move on, as they’ve proven themselves capable of doing. But for now, he’s their guy.
i think if he can stay healthy he’s got serious talent. that’s a solid “if” though
Nice article. Interesting idea for a subject. Wil Myers in the trade too. I didn’t realize Wil Myers has been with the Padres that long. this will be his 7th season.
Your right %100. His rookie year he was really good for a 5th starter. He is trying to develop a change up which could help a lot..
I liked him just as much as Turner when the Nats heisted him.
Ya, he’s always had the talent and potential. The same could be said for his brother (Tyson). Tyson was a solid #2 caliber pitcher but was never the same after all his injuries and ended his career prematurely.
TLDR: The nationals believe in Ross and he’s prob their 5th starter:
Should’ve just read instead of posting.
That’s unfortunate.
It was well written, engaging, & insightful. You missed something, in my opinion.
But…it does say something about you that you are still willing to throw your hat in the ring of the comments.
Anyway: I checked him out on Savant. Pretty interesting pitch mix as M. Zencka points out. Interesting to see how he’ll approach balancing the swing & miss offered by his 4 seamer while still remaining true to his strength of being a sinker/slider guy. Add the possibility of an improved change up & I can see why he’s someone they’re hoping for. I like articles on pitching theory.
So: I read it. As boring of a choice as that may be.
Thought Joe Ross was great with Fred Gwynne in
“Car 54 Where Are You?”
Classic show. Pre Munsters Fred Gwynne.
Dude was a serious actor. He was completely typecast after the Munsters, but he did great work in My Cousin Vinny and Pet Cemetery.
A few days ago when a poster here suggested the Nationals look into signing Maikel Franko to play 3B because Carter Kieboom wasn’t cutting it, I mentioned that under Mike Rizzo the Nationals have established themselves as being extremely patient with their young players, citing years of supporting Michael A. Taylor until they finally cut bait this offseason.
Yes, Ross was a lifesaver in 2019, coming out of nowhere and picking up innings when Max went down. Without him the Nationals miracle season wouldn’t have been.
The writer of the article is correct – Jim Hickey’s MO with the Rays (in agreement with Joe Madden) was to simplify a pitchers repertoire, and stay away from pitches that put too much strain on the arm, forearm, and shoulder as they too often resulted in injury.
In addition to a credentialed pitching coach, Ross has veteran catchers to work with, an above average D behind him, and the luxury of having 4 guys in rotation that keep pressure off of him. He’s 27 and needs to make a move this season.
Good stuff Samuel. Enjoy your posts..
Miracle season in 2019? The Nats have been one of the winningest teams in baseball since 2012. After their poor start in 19 (when they were crushed with injuries starting the season) I’m pretty sure they were tied with Houston for the best record the rest of the way. I think saying their WS Championship was a miracle is selling them short.
Nationals to Joe Ross: “I wish I could quit you…”.
hahaha….our version: Braves to Luke Jackson “i wish I could quit you” lol
Fun article TC. I’ve always thought the move to limit Strasburg when it arguably could’ve won them playoff games was one of the sweetest storylines, provided that they did finally win their eventual WS run. I remember Chipper Jones questioning it at the time, and as a guy who only got the one ring early in his career it was hard to argue. Baseball is great.
It is crazy to think it was only 7 years between the Strasburg Playoff Shutdown and him winning World Series MVP. Not only was it sweet for Nats fans, but media chatter about the Strasburg Shutdown curse completely vanished.
I grew up an Orioles fan in the DC area (during the Nats Montreal-era). There arent many baseball GMs that inspire such confidence in their fans over the long term. Mike Rizzo does and Strasburg’s 2019 was the ultimate vindication. He is easily ond of the top 5 GMs in baseball.
Its easy to argue, just talk to anyone with permanent damage
Its great they got that ring
The sinker slider combo has always been deadly, especially when coming from the same slot, stick to those guns
Definitely tangential, but imagine if that trade with SD never happened. The Padres would still have Trea Turner, so they wouldn’t have traded James Shields to the White Sox for Fernando Tatis Jr.
I know this can be done with any set of moves, but some are more significant than others.
That’s not a safe assumption. Teams trade for talent, not by positional need, in baseball (same with the draft). Plus Tatis wasn’t a super high rated prospect at the time. You could also argue that Turner could of easily been turned into a CF or 2B (if you remember, that’s where Turner played early in his career).
Just having a little fun exploring an alternate timeline as it relates to the Padres’ new $340M man.
He’s a great kid off the field. He has done a lot of work with my kids’ little league… when that used to be a thing.
They see a 5th starter. We see it too.