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Diamondbacks Notes: Ex-Dbacks, Rizzo, Offense, Marte

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The Diamondbacks surprisingly hung around the Wild Card race until mid-September this season, despite shedding the faces of their franchise over the course of the six months previous. The postseason has been a who’s who of important Dbacks of the last half decade, as Patrick Corbin has taken out the rest of the Dbacks former talent core, starting with A.J. Pollock and the Dodgers and Paul Goldschmidt and the Cardinals. He’ll take his best shot at Zack Greinke and the Astros in game 3 of the World Series, aka the former Dbacks ace bowl. Of course, Mike Rizzo, the Nationals GM, is also an ex-Diamondback. He served as Arizona’s Scouting Director from 2000 to 2006. Let’s take a look at some Diamondbacks news from Rizzo’s era up to the present day…

  • It’s unsurprising to realize Rizzo repurposed the team-building blueprint from the 2001 Diamondbacks champs in putting together his team in Washington, per MASN’s Mark Zuckerman. Mainly, that means two aces up front and a host of veteran hitters capable of putting together veteran at-bats. All in all, it’s a pretty uncannily accurate casting job on the part of Rizzo. Max Scherzer is Randy Johnson, Stephen Strasburg is Curt Schilling, Patrick Corbin is an evolved Brian Anderson, Anibal Sanchez is Miguel Batista. Many of the vets also fit the mold: Howie Kendrick can play Mark Grace, Gerardo Parra as David Dellucci or Danny Bautista, Ryan Zimmerman as Matt Williams, Asdrubal Cabrera as Jay Bell, Adam Eaton as Reggie Sanders, Matt Adams as Greg Colbrunn and Kurt Suzuki is Damian Miller. In the bullpen, Fernando Rodney is definitely Mike Morgan, Sean Doolittle is Matt Mantei (I guess?), Daniel Hudson is (gulp) Byung-Hyun Kim. Okay, perhaps it’s not 1-1 all the way through, but those Diamondbacks did win the World Series after a 92-win season – after a 93-win season in Washington, Rizzo hopes to replicate his old team one last time.
  • Despite two recent aces facing off for different teams in the World Series, the Diamondbacks offseason focus is the offense, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. The Dbacks put together a middle-of-the-pack offense in 2019, but the bats went away in an 11-game stretch in mid-September. They went 3-8 and pretty much fell out of race while scoring less than 2 1/2 runs per game. Those are the games that stick out for GM Mike Hazen, who will be on the lookout for ways to diversify their offense. Parsing the profile of the type of hitter Hazen may target is more difficult, as Arizona’s offense didn’t really stand out in any which way. They finished below-average in home runs, but not by a lot, above-average in men left on base and GIDP, but again, not by much. They were exactly league-average in batting average and on-base percentage, while their team slugging (.434 SLG) was below average by .001 SLG – as close to average as any team in the MLB.
  • As far as Ketel Marte is concerned, the Dbacks aren’t making a decision about his 2020 defensive home until they build out the rest of the roster. Second base could be where they look to improve offensively, in which case Marte will head back out to center. Essentially, the plan remains the same, with Hazen and the Dbacks set to take full advantage of the versatility Marte affords.

CC Sabathia Retires

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CC Sabathia announced his retirement this morning on Twitter. Obviously, this comes as no surprise, as the entire season served as Sabathia’s retirement tour.

Sabathia first appeared in the majors as a 20-year-old rookie way back in 2001 for the Cleveland Indians. In a career spanning 19 seasons, Sabathia finished with 251 wins across 560 starts, compiling a 3.74 ERA/3.78 FIP, 3,577 1/3 innings, 3,093 strikeouts, summed to 63.0 bWAR/66.5 fWAR. It was certainly an impressive career for Sabathia, who pitched for the Indians, Brewers, and Yankees.

Sabathia won a World Series with the 2009 Yankees and made 6 All-Star teams. He won the Cy Young award for the Indians in 2007 after going 19-7 with a 3.21 ERA/3.14 FIP across a league-leading 241 innings. Sabathia ranks 16th all-time in strikeouts (3,093), 37th in pitcher fWAR (66.5), and 48th in wins (251). 68.75% of MLBTR readers believe Sabathia put together a Hall of Fame career.

It certainly didn’t finish in an optimal fashion, leaving the ALCS due to injury, but Sabathia appears to have no qualms about finishing out his career. He released a retirement statement with a tweet that that read simply, “Thank you, Baseball.”

MLBTR Poll: Which World Series Storyline Is The Most Compelling?

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The results are in. The Astros are winning the 2019 World Series. As a community, we may only be 63% certain, but even for those 100% locked into A.J. Hinch’s club getting to four wins before the Nationals, there are plenty of storylines to follow in this year’s World Series. MASN’s Mark Zuckerman did us the favor of putting together a list. The star power of these two starting staffs alone could (and will) entertain for days, and though the power of these rotations is enough, there are some tasty subplots not far below the surface.

The first being the heart-wrenching showdown of former teammates. There’s Max Scherzer/Anibal Sanchez and Justin Verlander from the 2012 pennant winner in Detroit. There’s also Patrick Corbin and Zack Greinke, with Greinke serving as the “big bad” in a series of Corbin’s ex-teammates from Arizona. Corbin has already vanquished fellow ex-Diamondbacks A.J. Pollock and Paul Goldschmidt.

But there’s more. Take Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, who probably won’t face off head-to-head until free agency, arguably the top two targets on the open market. Though if recent reports prove prescient, they may not match up there either. Still, the two former first round picks will be compared to one another until one or the other signs their next contract.

Cole can just as easily find comparison with Scherzer, his likely game 1 counterpart and career track doppelgänger. Scherzer signed his massive free agent deal with the Nationals the offseason after he turned 30-years-old. Cole is a year younger, having just turned 29, but Scherzer piled up just 44 more innings at the time of his free agency. Max was 91-50 with a 3.58 ERA/3.39 FIP, 9.6 K/9 to 2.8 BB/9 at the time of his free agency. Cole’s record is 94-52 with a 3.22 ERA/3.06 FIP, 10.1 K/9 to 2.4 BB/9.

If there’s an owner out there who hasn’t yet realized the comparison, game 1 should drive home the point. It’s a scary thought, but Cole could turn out to be an even better version of Scherzer. Both had some ups-and-down with their debut franchise (Diamondbacks for Scherzer, Pirates for Cole) before coming into their own for a playoff contender while pitching behind an ace (in both cases: Verlander). If the Nats can pull off a win, Cole will enter free agency as Max did, having played in and lost one World Series.

The game 2 starters – Verlander and Strasburg – have a little before-and-after to them as well. Verlander was the 2nd overall pick of the Tigers in 2004, Strasburg 1st overall in 2009. Verlander signed an extension with the Tigers while still under contract in March the year after the Tigers lost in the World Series. Strasburg has an opt-out this winter, and it’s been presumed that he will levy that opt-out into an extension with the team that drafted him as well.

Verlander, of course, reached the World Series for the first time in his first full season as a starter in 2006. Strasburg was held out of the postseason in 2012, his first full season as a starter. For continuity’s sake, I’m absolutely willing to make the gigantic leap here that Stras’ postseason participation would have led to a World Series berth in 2012. Had Stras and those Nats actually made the World Series, they would have faced off against – who else – Verlander’s Tigers.

By that time, Verlander, 29, was 124-65 over 232 starts with a 3.40 ERA/3.41 FIP. Strasburg, 31, is 112-58 over 239 starts with a 3.17 ERA/2.96 FIP. They’re not identical athletes, of course, but their career tracks to this point are relatively aligned. The real takeaway here is this: if the Nationals lose this series, as predicted, and Stras re-ups in DC, as predicted, look for that hefty contract to hit the trade block in 4 or 5 years, and expect Stras to lead whichever team that is smart enough to trade for him (let’s be honest, probably the Astros) to a championship or two. Granted, I’m working pretty hard to hammer these comparisons home, but everyone has to reckon with their younger selves at some point, and it’s fun to think we get to watch Verlander and Scherzer do it on a World Series stage.

Zuckerman also lists Ryan Zimmerman and Jose Altuve as interesting juxtapositions given their long-term status as the face of their respective franchises. The two organizational soldiers clearly occupy different stratospheres within baseball’s talent hierarchy: at 29-years-old, Altuve’s 38.5 career bWAR already eclipses the 37.8 bWAR accrued by the 35-year-old Zimmerman. Still, both became the face of their respective franchise at a critical juncture – Zimmerman as the Nationals first draft pick following the move to DC, Altuve as the lone holdover from the Astros days in the National League. Just as Altuve has appeared in every season the Astros have been in the AL, Zimmerman has appeared in each of the Nationals 15 seasons in the capital. Both have had their share of the limelight in this year’s postseason.

Both teams also field homegrown third baseman who are MVP candidates in 2019. Anthony Rendon was the 6th overall selection of the 2011 draft, while Alex Bregman went 2nd overall in 2015. Neither may be the odds-on favorite to take home the hardware, but both are deserving. Bregman rocked a .296/.423/.592 with 41 home runs, 1.015 OPS, 168 wRC+ while leading the league with 119 walks. Rendon merely hit .319/.412/.598 with 34 home runs, 1.010 OPS, 154 wRC+ while leading the league with 44 doubles and 126 RBIs. Neither player strikes out, they both play a good third base, and it’s not hard to fathom this series coming down to a big hit from one of them or the other.

Either team’s victory would add a fascinating chapter to their organization’s narrative. For the Nationals, a World Series win would cap off a year of ultimate redemption. Twice in the same week they notched the unequivocal biggest win in franchise history, first by finally surviving a do-or-die game in the Wild Card, later in winning their first playoff series with another late-game comeback, this time against the Dodgers to win the NLDS. By the time they got around to sweeping the Cardinals out of the NLCS, big playoff victories were practically old hat. Not to mention, of course, that winning the big prize the first season post Bryce Harper is the best case scenario for the vindictive among us.

For the Astros, they have a dynasty on the line. By modern standards, you may already consider this team a dynasty for winning two pennants in three seasons, but plenty of teams have achieved that level of success this decade alone, including the Dodgers, Rangers, Cardinals, Royals, and Giants. The Dodgers (2017, 2018) and Rangers (2011, 2011) never took home the ultimate prize, of course, but only the Giants of 2010, 2012, and 2014 managed to win multiple rings.

To the above potential narratives, we can add Juan Soto’s 21st birthday in game 3, the old school versus new school debate incarnate should Anibal Sanchez face a bullpen game in game 4, and the more straightforward old versus young debate in the form of each team’s designated hitter: Yordan Alvarez for the Astros versus whichever old fool the Nats decide to deploy in the role (Howie Kendrick, Zimmerman, or Asdrubal Cabrera, most likely).

For those not interested in all the hoopla, there’s still a good ole fashioned sporting competition to enjoy. This should be baseball at its finest. There’s lots to focus on in this series, but which narrative strikes your fancy? And which narratives did we miss?

(poll link for app users)

MLBTR Originals

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It’s been awhile since we’ve rounded up original content from the staff here at MLBTR. On a slow morning on the eve of the World Series, let me do the honor of gathering those eggs…

  • Just this morning, Mark Polishuk looked back on the trade that almost happened between our two World Series combatants. If exploring the multiverse is your thing, you’ll enjoy the alternative realities Mark cooked up.
  • MLBTR resident logistician Jeff Todd looks under the couch cushions in Flushing to see how much help the Mets will have in solving their payroll predicament this winter.
  • Connor Byrne took a comprehensive look at the market for Jackie Bradley Jr. The Red Sox glove-first centerfielder appears available for purchase should an interested party come calling. We know the Reds have had interest in the past, but read Connor’s piece to chew over who else might be interested in JBJ.
  • Though we can’t take credit for these openings, there’s no shame in keeping a lookout for a better J-O-B. The Orioles have some roles to fill, and we’re happy to pass these posted vacancies along to any who might have missed them. 
  • Speaking of job openings, there are still plenty of open managerial vacancies about which we can speculate. Even with Joe Maddon reuniting with his old flame, we still have the Mets, Phillies, Padres, Cubs, Pirates, Royals and Giants looking for new skippers. The Phillies managerial vacancy, however, is the one you can speculate about thanks to this poll.
  • And if polls are your thing, look no further. There are plenty of opportunities to weigh in here at MLBTR. Take an opportunity to cast your vote and see what the masses think about any number of baseball’s most fickle sticklers, such as who’s gonna win the World Series, what sparked the Nationals turnaround, CC Sabathia’s Hall of Fame case, the future of Joe Maddon’s Angels, or most pressing of all, the non-tender case for Kevin Pillar.
  • Lastly, never forget to check in weekly to chat with the MLBTR staff. Read the transcripts of the most recent chats here and here.

Coaching Notes: Phillies, Girardi, Red Sox, Fatse, Espada

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Joe Girardi is in Philadelphia today for his second meeting with ownership, and it’s his job to lose, tweets ESPN1000’s David Kaplan. The Phillies have no qualms about their ability to compete in 2020, and Girardi certainly fits the bill of a guy who’s been there before – both in terms of competition and level of scrutiny. Ownership and the front office weren’t necessarily aligned in their decision to part ways with Gabe Kapler, and it seems clear that ownership’s desire for a veteran hand is top-of-mind in their current search. Whomever takes the role will have an expectation to compete right away. Easier said than done in a division with the Braves, Nationals, and Mets also in gung-ho win-now mode. Let’s take a look elsewhere on the coaching carousel…

  • Peter Fatse will become the assistant hitting coach of the Boston Red Sox, per Brandon Warne of ZoneCoverageMN (via Twitter). Fatse, 32, spent last season as a minor league hitting coordinator for the Minnesota Twins. He is a native of Massachusetts, and he has owned an Advanced Performance Facility in the area since 2010, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. Fatse is the first offseason addition to Boston’s coaching staff, but they will soon look to fill out the pitching side of their coaching team.
  • Joe Espada has a second interview upcoming in Chicago, but he’s been through the ringer before. Espada interviewed with the Angels, Blue Jays, and Rangers last year before returning to Houston. Better than last year’s tryout, Espada’s off-field perseverance prepped him for this year’s round of interviews, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. While serving as Girardi’s third base and infield coach with the Yankees, Espada and his wife began to wrestle with what would become a diagnosis of autism for their daughter, who was only two-years-old at the time. “Seeing a four-year-old struggle to communicate with another four-year-old; you need to take time to spend with someone to teach them basic things,” Espada said, per Feinsand. “That can be the case in a clubhouse, too. The more we get involved, they see how much you care. The compassion, the commitment to do something together, it makes you a better person. It’s made me a better father and a better coach.”

 

Free Agency Notes: Cole, Strasburg, Pitching

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Some of his teammates in Houston anticipate that Gerrit Cole will ultimately land with a California team next season, per ESPN’s Buster Olney. The Angels, in particular, are where many within the industry expect Cole to gravitate, given the proximity of Angel Stadium to his high school home. The is a story the Yankees have seen before, going back to their signing of CC Sabathia. They also had to entice Sabathia away from his California homeland by paying a premium in free agency. Of course, Sabathia hadn’t received much interest from the Dodgers, his desired team at the time, whereas it would not be surprising in the least to see the Angels – or another Golden State franchise – going hard after Cole. But he’s not the only potential free agent hurler being featured in this week’s World Series…

  • After Cole, Stephen Strasburg of the Nationals would be the most talented arm on the market. There’s a feeling within the industry, however, that he won’t get there, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. Strasburg, remember, was the rare Scott Boras client to sign an early extension, and it could be that Boras will leverage Strasburg’s opt-out into a longer deal with the Nationals. For his part, Strasburg has shown no inclination to test foreign waters, and tacking a couple years and a couple million dollars to the 4 years, $100MM already owed him after 2019 certainly could be enough to keep him in DC. After his current playoff run, it’s hard to imagine Stras pitching in another uniform. Still, if the window opens, there are sure to be suitors come to call. 
  • There’s no telling how much the free agency of the above-noted hurlers could change the shape of the league. Look no further than this week’s World Series for evidence. The Astros and Nationals will face off starting tomorrow with rosters built around “imported” pitching, per MLB.com’s Jim Callis. The Astros brought in Cole, Justin Verlander, and Zack Greinke via trade, whereas the Nationals signed Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin, and Anibal Sanchez in free agency. Whichever team wins four of the next seven games will add to a recent history of champions built around homegrown offense and supplemented pitching. The Cubs in 2016, Astros in 2017, and Red Sox in 2018 all boasted homegrown cores of position players and hired guns on the hill.

Yankees Notes: Lindor, Shortstop, Cole

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Many will categorize 2019 as a failure for the 103-win Yankees. For the most storied franchise in the game, anything less than a World Series victory is sufficient cause for handwringing. Chalk up 2019 as a close-but-no-cigar season – just a few outs here or there and the Yankees could be readying to take on the Nationals instead of watching from home. In a game with only one ultimate winner, however, 2019 goes down as a failed season even if, objectively, the Bronx provided some of the most potent, resilient, and thrilling baseball of the year. Moving forward, they have one of the strongest talent cores in baseball. And yet, in an era that includes a dynastic force like the Astros, savvy, irrepressible units in Oakland and Tampa Bay, and bounce-back potential in Boston, the Yankees owe their due diligence to improving the roster wherever possible. Starting pitching may be New York’s advertised soft spot, but they should target Francisco Lindor first and foremost, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Defense, baserunning, and an opportunity for diversified offense make Lindor a perfect fit on a roster of sluggers (though a player of Lindor’s caliber is a perfect fit on every roster). Let’s check in on what else is being said about the Bombers this morning…

  • ESPN’s Buster Olney also targets shortstop as a position of reflection for the Yankees, though he emphasizes settling on a bellcow more than finding a significant upgrade. Didi Gregorius is a free agent likely facing a qualifying offer decision, and Gleyber Torres remains on-hand as the future somewhere up the middle. Given the keys to the car, Olney would also seek more production from the Yankee starting staff and left-handed hitting to balance the right-heavy group of savages already on-hand in the Bronx.
  • After not making the World Series for the entirety of the 2010’s, there may in fact be some urgency to New York’s offseason, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. Gerrit Cole is the obvious answer, but there are legitimate questions as to whether the Yankees will shell out top dollar for a pitcher for the first time since Masahiro Tanaka prior to 2014. It’s also not entirely clear if Cole, a California native, has any interest in pitching for New York. Brian Cashman hasn’t been willing to move his line when it comes to free agents of late, with Patrick Corbin’s desire for a sixth contract year the most recent example, and it’s hard to argue with New York’s methods considering their recent success. On the other hand, Corbin will be playing in the World Series this week and the Yankees, of course, will not.

Managerial/Coaching Notes: Openers, Pirates, Phillies

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Though the opener concept is less than two years old, it is suddenly unsurprising to see not one, but both teams planning a bullpen day for game 6 of the ALCS. To see juggernauts like the Astros and Yankees turn to relievers to start a game this late in the postseason is a testament to how quickly the game of baseball can change, writes ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Whether this on-field evolution will change the free agent market remains a question, but the Rays acquisition of Nick Anderson at the trade deadline could point to changing valuations regarding relievers. That trade in particular had a lot of moving parts that make it anomalous, including Ryne Stanek’s inclusion in Miami’s return and Jesus Sanchez’s struggles in Triple-A prior to the trade. Still, the Marlins acquired a borderline top-50 prospect in exchange for a 29-year-old rookie reliever, and the Rays very well could end up with the better end of the deal. Anderson’s performance in the postseason (5 2/3 innings, 1 earned run, 5 hits, 8 strikeouts, 0 walks) goes a long way in explaining to the casual baseball fan why Anderson might be so highly valued. As we await the first-ever bullpen day in a league championship series, let’s see what else is going on around baseball…

  • Astros bench coach Joe Espada surely has enough on his plate ahead of tonight’s game 6, but he’s a man in high demand. The Pirates have joined the list of teams interested in interviewing Espada for their managerial vacancy, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Espada has also received interest from the Giants and Cubs. The Cubs, for one, came away from their interview on Monday “exceptionally impressed” with Espada, per David Kaplan of NBC Sports Chicago (via Twitter).
  • The Phillies still have a manager’s seat to fill, but they appear closer to hiring their next Amateur Scouting Director, per Jim Salisbury of NBCSPhilly (via Twitter). Brian Barber, the national crosschecker for the Yankees, appears to be their primary target. Former scouting director Johnny Almarez stepped down in September after serving in the role since October 2014, citing personal reasons.

Agent Matt Sosnick Arrested On Charges Of Domestic Violence

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MLB agent Matt Sosnick was arrested in Northern California on charges of domestic violence and misdemeanor child endangerment dating to an incident that occurred with his wife on October 8, TMZ Sports recently reported. He was arrested a second time on Oct. 9 for violating conditions of a temporary restraining order that was filed against him.

Erica Sosnick is the alleged victim in this case against him. She has filed for divorce, though her attorney has stated an intention to dismiss the restraining order filed against Mr. Sosnick.

When reached by MLBTR, the MLBPA, which is in charge of certifying agents, declined to comment. Disciplinary action could be forthcoming, as the MLBPA agent regulations do contain provisions requiring that agents refrain from “unlawful conduct.” Whether and how the regulations might be applied in this case is not evident at this time.

Sosnick’s agency, Sosnick, Cobbe and Karon Sports represents a number of high-profile ballplayers, including Pete Alonso, Max Kepler, and Blake Snell. Earlier today, Paul Cobbe of Sosnick, Cobbe and Karon Sports released the following statement regarding fellow partner Matt Sosnick: “Domestic violence of any type is a concern to all of us, and our agency views the recent arrest of and allegations levied against Matt Sosnick as a very serious matter.  We also believe in an individual’s right to due process, and we will continue to work with all parties involved to ensure that the legal process is allowed to run its course.  Because of the familial nature of the accusations, we will refrain from commenting further until the matter is settled.” 

Toronto President & CEO Mark Shapiro Speaks On Takeaways From Postseason, Job Rumors, Game Evolution

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President and CEO of the Toronto Blue Jays Mark Shapiro covered a variety of topics while speaking with Arden Zwelling and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca (audio link). Shapiro provides insight into evolutions within the game, the process of identifying talent, and the breakdown of responsibility in front offices. He also speaks in-depth about the process of player development as the best opportunity for gaining a competitive advantage.

He uses the Washington Nationals and their recent pennant victory to examine some of these team-building strategies in context. He starts by citing the all-important playoff axiom: “Just get in.” It’s interesting that Shapiro notes this as a point of contention for him throughout his career, as common baseball discourse stalls on this idea every trading season in divvying up baseball’s 30 organizations into buy/sell/hold buckets.

Those in the “anything can happen once you’re in” camp haven taken a hit as recent postseasons have gone chalk. The last three World Series champions were hardly long shots: 103-win Cubs, 101-win Astros, and 108-win Red Sox. The Nats, in fact, are the first Wild Card team to make the World Series since the 2014 Wild Card showdown that featured two second-place clubs playing on the game’s biggest stage. That season, the 88-win San Francisco Giants defeated the 89-win Kansas City Royals in 7 games.

The “imperfect” Nationals check a couple of boxes on Shapiro’s postseason team wish list: frontline starting pitching and players in a variety of career stages.  Shapiro has “always been a big believer in looking at the different segments of the player population and feeling like when you’re ready to win you need representation from all three.” Young cores rising through farm systems together has been the en vogue team-building philosophy after the success of Chicago, Houston, and Boston, but to Shapiro’s point, the Nationals are succeeding with a mix of young, mid-prime, and veteran players.

The Nats field not only the oldest players in baseball – reliever Fernando Rodney – but they field the oldest roster in baseball with an average age of 31.1 years old. Veterans like Max Scherzer, Howie Kendrick and Ryan Zimmerman have keyed their postseason success. True to Shapiro’s “need to have a balance,” however, the engine of this Nats roster is their young superstar duo of Juan Soto, 20, and Victor Robles, 22. The steadiest production will usually come from those players in their prime, Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, and Stephen Strasburg are some of the players that qualify for the Nats. Shapiro sees all three brackets as vital to team success: energy from the youth, reliability from those in their prime, and the strongest desire to win coming from those veteran players.

The full podcast is worth a listen, as Shapiro speaks directly to rumors about different job opportunities. Notably, he listens to all inquiries, but he has not been interviewing for outside opportunities. Given his comments here and before, Shapiro continues to be a good candidate for an extension this winter.

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