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Trevor Williams Elects Free Agency

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Trevor Williams has elected free agency over accepting an assignment to Triple-A, per John Dreker of Pirates Prospects (via Twitter). Williams was designated for assignment last week and largely assumed to choose free agency given his role in the Pirates rotation the last four seasons.

All told, Williams has been a steadying presence in the Buccos rotation since 2017, making a total of 93 starts spanning 522 innings with a 4.34 ERA/4.52 FIP, 7.0 K/9 to 3.0 BB/9, and 2.07 bWAR per 200 frames. The 28-year-old has mostly taken the backseat in the public eye to higher profile arms the likes of Tyler Glasnow and Chris Archer, however.

Williams best work came in 2017 and 2018. Last season was a low-point for Williams as he struggled to a 6.18 ERA/6.30 FIP in 55 1/3 innings over 11 starts. His strikeout rate actually increased to a career-high 19.4 K%, but his command wandered as well as his walk rate climbed to 8.3 BB%. The bigger issue for Williams was keeping the ball in the ballpark. He surrendered an ML-leading 15 home runs in 2020 despite the launch angle and exit velocity of opposing hitters decreasing from the previous season.

Garrett Richards On Blue Jays’ Radar

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The Blue Jays have expressed preliminary interest in Garrett Richards, per Ben Nicholson-Smith with Arden Zwelling on sportsnet.ca’s Blue Jays’ podcast. That’s not a head-spinning development, as Toronto is largely expected to kick the tires on most of the top names in the free agent pool. Still, “preliminary interest” means slightly more given the Blue Jays’ status as one of the more eager buyers on the market.

The Jays are known to have made a three-year, $40MM offer to Kevin Gausman, according to the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. In terms of their process for free agents like Gausman with qualifying offers attached (J.T. Realmuto, George Springer, DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Bauer), the Jays have a fairly specified process, per the same podcast as above. They take the dollar number that they’ve assigned to the draft pick they’d lose by signing a given free agent, and subtract that number from the offer made to the player. In a vacuum, that makes sense.

Predictive player evaluation models, of course, assume a range of potential outcomes, making for a murkier process than the one described above. To take any valuation of a player as gospel is unrealistic. Furthermore, putting the onus of the lost draft pick on the player largely neglects the competitive aspect of free agency. The only players Toronto could ever expect to sign would be ones they rate higher than the market norms (or those that could be convinced with supplemental appeals, such as culture, the tax situation in Canada, or the quality of the roster).

Granted, in a literal sense, that is exactly the free agent process – winning a free agent bid means signing those players for whom the Jays are willing to pay more than everybody else. That doesn’t just happen when the Jays find value in a player that nobody else can see – such as might be the case with the mythical “diamond in the rough” a la Max Muncy or Justin Turner signing with the Dodgers. In practice, most players have explicit appeal that multiple teams all see at once. This is why the dollar value of a player in free agency is by necessity a dynamic thing. In effect, it’s hard to know where exactly Toronto’s dollar value began with Gausman, only roughly where it maxed out.

Still, the greater point here probably comes from simply knowing Toronto’s thinking. As noted on the podcast, many conversations happen during the courtship process and only some actually end in contract offers. Though Richards comes from a different pool of free agents than Gausman – meaning free agents unburdened by a qualifying offer – there’s still no indication that Toronto has moved beyond those initial meet-and-greet level of courtship with Richards.

After missing out on Gausman, however, the Jays are clear about their desire to acquire someone else to fill out their rotation. Richards fits the profile. The former Angel isn’t at the tippy-top of the pitching market, but he did land 24th on MLBTR’s list of top-50 free agents. The 32-year-old posted a 4.03 ERA/4.28 FIP across 51 1/3 innings with San Diego last season, presumably showing enough in his full-speed return from Tommy John to prove that he’s back to full strength. For the Jays, that’s likely to put him up near the top for starters in their price range, speculatively speaking.

Braves Notes: Melancon, Morton, Leaks, Chemistry, And Culture

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The Braves pulled off a somewhat surprising pair of moves early this postseason by nabbing starters Drew Smyly and Charlie Morton on one-year deals. That the deals were surprising, however, was not surprising. The Braves keep their internal conversations about players internal, according to the Athletic’s David O’Brien, who writes, “Atlanta is as leak-free as any organization in sports regarding rumors of potential trades and free-agent signings, and if the player and his agent are equally private, which is how the Braves like it and something that agents are aware of, there could and often are discussions and deals completed before anything is leaked.”

Hence, the dearth of news about re-signing, say, Mark Melancon, O’Brien notes, doesn’t equate to a lack of movement or interest. Simply, if the Braves do bring Melancon back, the public isn’t likely to hear about it until the deal is done.

In the meantime, Braves’ fans can content themselves with the additions they’ve already made this winter. After all, while neither the Smyly nor Morton contracts were big deals financially, they are big deals in terms of potential impact. The Morton acquisition bumped Fangraphs’ valuation of Atlanta’s rotation from the 16th-ranked rotation in the game to 11th, writes Jay Jaffe. Morton brings 1.5 more projected WAR than the Braves’ in-house alternative, per Steamer.

But for Morton, the decision to sign on the dotted line had as much to do with the personalities involved as it did the strength of the rotation. Familiarity with catching coach Sal Fasano, pitching coach Rick Kranitz, and catcher Travis d’Arnaud helped Morton commit to the switch from Tampa to Atlanta, according to a piece by O’Brien from just before Thanksgiving.

The already-established clubhouse culture in Atlanta also made the Braves an intriguing destination. Chemistry may not be the metric du jour for statisticians, but it was a consideration for Morton. Per O’Brien, Morton said, “Most good teams, they can outplay their talent level just by being close and having good attitudes and having fun. From everything that I know and what I’ve seen, the Braves have both. It looks like they’re really loose, fun-loving, but they’re also really talented. So I’m looking forward to being part of a group where you’re looking forward to getting to the park every day and you just want to hang out, being excited to play together.”

Quick Hits: Colon, Fresno Grizzlies, MiLB

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The story hasn’t changed for 47-year-old hurler Bartolo Colon. Though he hasn’t pitched in the Majors since 2018, he desires to return and finish his career with the Mets, tweets MLB Insider Héctor Gómez. Colon felt the same way last May, however. It’s hard to imagine that his chances of suiting up again in New York have increased since then. A veteran of 21 seasons, the hugely-popular Colon turns 48-years-old in May. “Big Sexy” last appeared in the Majors with 146 1/3 innings for the Rangers in 2018. He posted a 5.78 ERA/5.47 FIP with 5.0 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 that season. With that, let’s check on the latest updates from minor league baseball…

  • The Fresno Grizzlies are facing a tough decision: accept relegation from Triple-A to Single-A, or leave the Major League system entirely, according to J.J. Cooper of Baseball America. News of MLB’s ultimatum to the Grizzlies first came from Brianna Calix of the Fresno Bee, who obtained a letter emailed from deputy commissioner and chief legal officer for MLB Daniel R. Halem to high-ranking government officials in Fresno. In the letter, per Calix, Halem writes: “Because communications with the (Fresno) Grizzlies and City of Fresno have indicated they have no interest in operating a Single-A affiliate, we do not currently intend to offer any affiliation to the Grizzlies or Fresno.”
  • The Grizzlies remain committed in their stance to stay in Triple-A. The difference in league amounts to more home games, a higher profile, and likely more revenue. Fresno Mayor Lee Brand and Mayor-elect Jerry Dyer issued a statement in response to MLB, posted here on Twitter by Marek Warszawski of the Fresno Bee. It’s certainly easy to understand their desire to remain in Triple-A, but for MLB’s part, they’re trying to execute a restructuring plan that they think will bring more revenue to the game overall.
  • For a reminder on how the Grizzlies and other clubs got to this point, Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper walks through the timeline of negotiations between MLB and MiLB from December of 2018 to the present day. Cooper includes the latest development from last week when he reported on the changing dynamics for clubhouse managers.

Phillies Reduce Front Office Workforce

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The Philadelphia Phillies let go 80 employees on Wednesday, reducing their front office workforce by 20%, reports Marcus Hayes of the Philadelphia Inquirer. A number of Major League teams have diminished their staffs since the pandemic prompted revenue losses all across the sporting landscape, but the Phillies brought their own particular panache to the unfortunate business of layoffs. Hayes reports that employees were alerted of the latest cuts by email the day before Thanksgiving.

The 80 positions that were eliminated came via buyouts and layoffs on both the business and baseball side of the front office, notes Gary Miles, also of the Philadelphia Inquirer. This is just the latest in a number of cost-cutting efforts made by the Phillies to counterbalance the losses of the past year. A letter in June gave employees some idea of the scope of revenue depletion with which the organization was wrestling, and a round of salary reductions impacted employees making more than $90K. Middleton himself forewent his salary, but none of it was enough to stave off the eventual slimming of personnel files.

Managing partner John Middleton hasn’t always put forth the best optics since taking over the Phillies in 2016, and this latest bit of personnel management certainly falls into that camp. Even if these layoffs were delayed by some time, and even if most of them were buyouts, the timing of the notice certainly paints a grim picture.

Meanwhile, the Phillies continue to search for a new GM to lead their now-depleted baseball operations team. Word is they’ve tabled the search for a president of baseball ops, but they continue to seek a new GM. On the one hand, the tepid free agent market and a presumably long winter provide opportunity for the Phillies to exert some patience in their search for a new top decision-maker. On the other hand, the Atlanta Braves – their division rival and incumbent team-to-beat in the NL East – are setting the pace early by adding two viable arms to their already-strong rotation.

What Should The A’s Do About Left Field?

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The Oakland A’s may look to offset the potential loss of left fielder Robbie Grossman with organizational depth. According to MLB.com’s Martín Gallegos, the A’s suspect 28-year-old Seth Brown could play an important role – but it’s now or never for the Oregon native. Brown’s combination of power and patience is a skill set the A’s have shown a fondness for over the years, and he played well during a 2019 call-up: .293/.361/.453 in 83 plate appearances.

From 2017 to 2019, Brown made the progressive leaps an organization likes to see as he jumped from High-A to Double-A to Triple-A in successive seasons. He earned his time on the big-league roster in 2019 after an impressive .297/.352/.634 line with 37 home runs in just 112 games at the highest level of the minors.

Grossman himself was somewhat of a late bloomer, cutting his teeth on unfortunate Astros squads of 2013 and 2014. He would be released by the Astros and then the Indians before finding a home in Minnesota. After three seasons of part-time work that culminated in a solid 1.7 bWAR season in 2018, the Twinkies cut him loose, too.

Hello, Oakland. Grossman’s 2020 output was easily the most productive season of his career, but those considering him in free agency must gauge whether his power display during the shortened 2020 season is the final step of his development or a small-sample burst. His .240 ISO this season far outpaced his career mark of .127 ISO.

All in all, Grossman’s skill set isn’t flashy, but that hasn’t stopped him from posting an above-average wRC+ in four of the last five seasons. If a market doesn’t develop for Grossman, the A’s could seek a reunion. Grossman and Brown both hit from the left side, of course, making for a ham-handed timeshare between the two.

Enter Chad Pinder, who could be in line for more regular playing time. Pinder has long been a short-side platoon utility player for the A’s, but his bat played up in a major way during their playoff run. Pinder was often penciled into the number three spot in the order while standing in for the injured Matt Chapman at the hot corner. Pinder could easily line up with Ramon Laureano and Mark Canha against lefties, but Stephen Piscotty should also be back in the lineup. The A’s could be intrigued by the possibility of more face time for the soon-to-be 29-year-old Pinder, but much of that time may have to come at second base, where Tony Kemp currently tops the depth chart.

All of which is to say, expect the A’s to slow-play the market this offseason and see where the value play lies. They’d like to explore the possibility of bringing back Tommy La Stella, who would expect a majority of the timeshare at the keystone. A long-time part-time player who almost retired many years ago when the Cubs sent him to Triple-A, La Stella is not likely to cherish a return to diminished responsibilities.

Add to the outfield mix ML-ready prospects Luis Barrera and Greg Deichmann – the latter of whom, Gallegos notes, was just added to the 40-man roster – and the A’s could head into 2021 as currently constituted with plenty of options to throw at the wall.

The real issue for the A’s is building a bridge between Marcus Semien and prospect Nick Allen at short. Allen’s defensive prowess is considerable, but the 5’8″ 22-year-old glove last appeared in High-A with a slash line of .292/.363/.434. Normal circumstances would dictate another year in the minors for Allen, but these days the development curve is more blueprint than model.

If Allen is close, Pinder could hold the line at short, but he’s totaled just 34 innings as the infield captain since 2017. Assuming they’re not ready to simply hand the keys to the car over to Allen, the A’s will focus their free agent energy (aka, dollars) on finding a short-term fix to keep the spot warm.

The A’s, like the Rays, are comfortable fielding a dynamic offensive lineup that shape-shifts as needed throughout the regular season. They’ll dole out playing time piecemeal until settling on the right mix. That could mean an increased share for Brown, but the A’s are sure to have ways to flex the roster if he’s unable to claim it.

AL East Notes: Rays, Franco, Red Sox, Benintendi, Cora, Pedroia

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Rays top prospect Wander Franco is on his way back to the United States for precautionary tests on the bicep injury that forced him out of the lineup in the Winter League, according to John Romano of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). The Dominican League reported news of Franco’s discomfort last week, but it seemed like a minor injury at the time. Coming back stateside certainly adds a note of concern, but that’s still not much to go on. For the time being, it’s safe to presume the best. While we await further updates, let’s check in on the Rays division rival…

  • There’s some concern that Andrew Benintendi won’t be able to regain the form that made him a top prospect before his debut in 2016, writes Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Boston’s left fielder slashed .290/.366/.465, good for 4.5 bWAR as a 23-year-old in 2018. He’s backslid since then, culminating in an injury-marred 2020. More than the .103/.314/.128 line he posted in just 14 games this season, the concern is that Benintendi no longer registers the sprint speed he booked early in his career. Speier provides some disquieting quotes from talent evaluators who don’t see Benintendi developing into the star many expected. There’s not much chance of Boston exploring a trade with his value at an all-time low. For now, the 26-year-old should have plenty of leash to build back his value in 2021.
  • Before he was the manager of the Boston Red Sox, Alex Cora mentored Dustin Pedroia in the early stages of the second baseman’s career. Now, as that career appears to be nearing an end, Cora is again nearby to lend an ear, writes Chris Cotillo of Masslive.com. Cora won’t reveal anything about Pedroia’s plans for the future, but he did speak glowingly about the impact he has continued to have on the team, even if he hasn’t been healthy enough to contribute on the diamond. It’s largely expected that Pedroia will announce his retirement before the 2021 season, but nothing has been made official.

This Day In Transaction History: Thanksgiving

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Thanksgiving isn’t usually a barnburner of a day as far as baseball transactions are concerned, but that’s pattern more than rule. Most years something official happens along the lines of Matt Skole signing with the White Sox in 2019 or Jason Lane signing with the Padres in 2014 – but  three years in particular gave us a heaping portion of baseball news befitting turkey day: 2005, 2007, 2009. While we wait to see what happens this year, let’s go back and look at some of the most impactful moves made on Thanksgiving day.

  • Last year was a quiet Thanksgiving day, but there was plenty to talk about. If you recall, we were just one day removed from the four-player Brewers/Padres swap that saw Trent Grisham and Zach Davies land in San Diego. MLBTR readers weighed in on Thanksgiving with more people preferring the Brewers’ side of the deal. The Brew Crew landed promising infielder Luis Urías and potential rotation arm Eric Lauer. A year removed, my guess is the public sentiment may have changed. This one might need more time to gestate, however, before a final determination can be made.
  • On this same date and day in history, the Cleveland Indians signed an amateur free agent that changed the fortunes of their franchise. Jose Ramirez – a 17-year-old amateur free agent out of Dominican Republic – signed on Thursday, November 26, 2009. He would debut in the Majors just four years later as a 20-year-old.
  • On the same day, the Toronto Blue Jays struck in free agency signing shortstop Álex González to a free agent contract. Of course, this isn’t the Alex Gonzalez most Blue Jays fans will remember best. This A-Gon spent just a few months north of the border. He was traded to the Braves on July 14th of the following season as part of a four-player deal that sent Yunel Escobar and Jo-Jo Reyes to Toronto. Escobar would net 8.6 bWAR across 2 1/2 seasons with the Jays, while Reyes would be claimed off waivers by the Orioles later that season.
  • In 2007, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim invested heavily in a free agent centerfielder who had spent the entirety of his career to that point in the Twin Cities. Torii Hunter signed for $89.5MM over five years to roam the grass in Anaheim. He’d win two Gold Gloves and make two All-Star teams while racking up 20.7 bWAR as an Angel. They got their money’s worth as Hunter would post the best two seasons of his career by bWAR while with the Angels (2009, 2012).
  • The Cincinnati Reds signed Miguel Rojas as an amateur free agent on November 24, 2005. Rojas would stay in the Reds’ minor league system for a full six seasons before being granted free agency and joining the Dodgers in 2012.
  • That same season, the Marlins did some work with two significant trades on Thanksgiving. The first sent Carlos Delgado and cash to the Mets for Grant Psomas, Mike Jacobs and Yusmeiro Petit. Delgado spent just one season in Florida, but he did grab a 6th-place MVP finish that year for slashing .301/.399/.582 with 33 bombs.
  • Their other deal helped bring the second title of the century to the Red Sox. The Fish traded Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell and Guillermo Mota to Boston for Jesus Delgado, Harvey Garcia, Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez would have a number of solid years with the Fish, while Hanley Ramirez developed into a cornerstone shortstop and the face of the franchise.

Spencer Patton “Drawing Interest”

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Spencer Patton is drawing interest in free agency from MLB and NPB clubs, per MLB Insider Jon Morosi (via Twitter). The Rangers are at least one team that is said to be tracking the market for Patton.

Patton last appeared in the Majors making 16 appearances with the Cubs in 2016. Over 21 1/3 innings for the eventual World Series champs, Patton posted a 5.48 ERA/5.02 FIP with 9.3 K/9 to 5.9 BB/9. He spent the two years prior with the Rangers, for whom he made 36 appearances with a 6.75 ERA/4.54 FIP.

Players returning from overseas have become somewhat of a wild card in recent years, with a number of pitchers re-establishing themselves in the states after stints abroad. Pierce Johnson fit a similar mold last season. Fresh off a stellar season in Japan, Johnson signed a two-year deal worth $5MM guaranteed with the Padres. He delivered in 2020 with a 2.70 ERA/3.14 FIP across 20 innings.

Patton’s immediate numbers aren’t quite as impressive as Johnson’s were, but he nonetheless has been a productive contributor for the past four seasons in Japan. The 32-year-old posted a 4.92 ERA across 57 appearances totaling 53 innings as a reliever for the Yokohama Bay Stars. The right-hander spent four seasons with the Bay Stars with a 3.68 ERA across 205 2/3 innings with 10.6 K/9 to 3.7 BB/9.

AL Notes: Rays, Royals, Rangers

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The Rays have one clear priority for the offseason, writes MLB Insider Jim Bowden (via Twitter). They’ve let the other 29 teams know: they need catchers. That’s been the case for the Rays most offseasons. Tampa has long been unable to find a long-term solution at the catching position. Rays catchers (Mike Zunino, Michael Perez, and Kevan Smith) finished 25th in the Majors by bWAR in 2020 with -0.3 bWAR. None of the three are currently employed by the Rays, as Perez was selected off waivers by the Pirates, and Zunino and Smith are free agents. Ronaldo Hernandez currently sits atop their depth chart, and while the Rays have high hopes for the slugging 23-year-old, he has yet to appear above High-A. The free agent market isn’t likely to offer a ton of options for the Rays’ price range. Speculatively speaking, if they do go the free agency route, a reunion with Zunino might make the most sense. Other options they could consider include Matt Wieters, Tyler Flowers, Sandy Leon, Robinson Chirinos, and Alex Avila.

  • Bowden (via Twitter) also enumerates the Royals plan for the winter: acquire a starting pitcher, middle-of-the-order bat, and centerfielder. They also want to improve their overall on-base percentage, notes Bowden. The Royals tied with the Mariners for 25th in the Majors with a .309 OBP. A team 7.8 BB% also tied for 25th in the Majors. To this point, Hunter Dozier (.344 OBP) and Salvador Perez (.353 OBP) were the only Kansas City regulars with an on-base percentage over .330. Outfield prospect Khalil Lee might provide an internal solution. The 22-year-old walked at a rate of 11.9% in Double-A in 2019, and the oganization holds him in high regard.
  • The Rangers will give Sherten Apostel a look at first base in the lead-up to the season, per Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Apostel has come up as a third baseman, though at 6’4″, 235 lbs, there’s at least a question of whether he’d fare better defensively at first. Still, the Rangers believe he can stick at third, per Wilson. The issue is more that Isiah Kiner-Falefa is fresh off a Gold-Glove-winning season, and in the long-term, top prospect Josh Jung profiles for the hot corner. In the short term, Ronald Guzman could be unseated at first after slashing just .230/.308/.417 over 809 plate appearances the past three seasons. His 0.9 bWAR per 650 plate appearances doesn’t scream stability at first. Apostel, 22 in March, got a cup-of-coffee in 2020, though he’s likely to start the year in Triple-A. If he starts hot, however, the Rangers could make room for him at first.

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