I just read the most ridiculous Steve Adams comment on his chat transcript from his chat before this. Someone asked Steve if the Braves would keep Adam Duvall. Adams said that Duvall was a good defensive outfielder but the Braves still shouldn’t keep him. He said if they do it should be as a “bench role/reserve outfielder.” Adam Duvall is not only good defensively but he already has 34 home runs and 99 RBI’s. I know Sabermetrics may not like his OBP or strikeouts, but if you think a good defensive player who already has 34 home runs and 99 RBI’s is bench player you are out of your mind. That kind of production from a good defensive player makes them an every day starter on almost any team in baseball. I like Sabermetrics and all but some people are just getting insane with it.
All of that run production and still ONLY a 106 OPS+ (100 is MLB average) with a total WAR of 1.1 on the season. Duvall has been a great pick-up for ATL, but he hasn’t done anything to convince AA he is what we thought he is…a platoon player with peaks and valleys, which is why AA went out and got similar complimentary platoon OF players: Eddie Rosario, Joc Pedersen to build an OF Dr. Frankenstein could appreciate. In the end, AA got what he wanted all along, Pedersen/Duvall at a reduced rate playing a platoon role.
I disagree with Steve on his belief that JD will opt out.
This has been his worst full year since 2013. Combined with the nagging back injury and last year’s horrendous short season performance, he’d be better off playing out the contract and re-building his value next year.
I know that next year there might be an additional 15 teams looking for a DH, but I don’t think that will lead to bigger contract offers this winter.
You can overlook Duvall’s SOs, or overlook his low OBP, but you can’t overlook both. What sabermetrics say is, SOs aren’t that bad if a guy can get on base regularly. With his HR output, getting on base more often would make him a valuable guy.
But, it’s not about HRs or RBI, it’s about creating runs. Fangraphs has Duvall at 108 wRC+ this season, and 98 for his career. If he could get base more often, that wRC+ would increase and that would justify him as an everyday player. At Duvall’s age the Braves should aim higher than a guy that’s only MLB average or slightly better.
For Duvall, make that 35 home runs and 101 RBI’s already. Yeah. that sounds like a “bench role/reserve outfielder” to me. I know people love OPS+. I like it too. I prefer wRC+ but they are both good. Regardless, those are predicter stats. You don’t hit a bunch of home runs and drive in a bunch of RBI’s to hope you get a higher OPS+. You get a high OPS+ in hopes you hit a bunch of home runs and drive in a bunch of RBI’s. You can have a mammoth OPS+ and only have 1 at bat. I’m not saying the Braves should give Duvall a long term deal or anything. I expect both his power and his defense to be there next year like it was this year though. The idea any good defender with 35 home runs and 101 RBI’s should be on the bench is patently ridiculous. Especially when you consider Rosario, Pederson and Soler are all pending free agents, Acuna is injured and know one has a clue what will happen with Ozuna even though we will likely have a universal DH next season. What does Steve Adams expect the Braves to do? Find 3 better outfielders than good defensive 35 home run 101 RBI Duvall on top of a DH? How do the Braves have the ability to put that kind of production on the bench next season? How does any team? It’s ridiculous. I’m not saying Duvall is going to be some great long term player that should be paid a ton of money. I’m just saying the idea that he belongs on the bench is patently ridiculous. Who are the 3 or 4 guys that should start in front of him for the Braves next season?
You clearly don’t understand OPS+ or wRC+. Neither one is a predictor stat. OPS+ is the park-adjusted combined OBP and SLG stats. wRC+ is the park-adjusted runs created stat.
I also prefer wRC+. I agree, both are useful, and there isn’t a huge variance between the two, but both are based on what a guy has done with the bat so far, not predicting what he’ll do in the future.
You’ve put too high a value on RBI. RBI is really a team stat. The hitter has no control over whether there are base runners when he comes to bat or not. You can have 2 guys with identical hitting stats with one having a lot more RBI than the other because of the situation, which is out of their control.
And again, if Duvall could convert some of his SOs to BBs and improve his OBP, thereby creating more runs, he wouldn’t be what he is now, a bench guy/4th OFer.
“If Duval is a 4th outfielder, who are the other 3?”
Silly question. When the term 4th OFer is used, it implies that that guy is not good enough to be an everyday player. He’s better suited to giving other guys days off, or pinch hitting off the bench. It’s not specific to any team.
If a team has to play Duvall as an everyday OFer, it’s because of lack of talent in the OF, or in the case of the Braves, losses of true everyday guys like Acuna and Ozuna. No team with designs on a WS title starts the season with Duvall penciled in as an everyday guy.
“RBI are a team stat… Salvy Perez would like to talk to you.
Salvador Perez: .275/.316/.542, 149 RBI
Matt Olson: .274/.369/.542, 94 RBI
Perez has 5 more ABs and 9 more HRs. They have very similar batting stats, with BA and SLG virtually identical, but Perez has 55 more RBI. How do you account for that?
Neither player has any control over how many guys are on base when they come to bat. The Royals have done a better job of getting on base in front of Perez, than the A’s have done getting on in front of Olson. So yes, a team stat.
Oops, you’re correct. Not the first mistake I’ve made, and unfortunately, probably not the last either. 149 is the number of Perez’s SOs.
Interesting enough though, Perez has 10 more RBI, but Olson has a 20 points higher wRC+. Not that that will convince the Luddites, who hate sabermetric analytics, but whatever…
The Mets don’t need to win a championship. Their fans are already so proud of their “missed WAR” they already believe they’re world champions. Mission accomplished.
George W. Bush recently was at Citi Field to commemorate the accomplishment and hang the “2021 Missed WAR” pennant. It’s flying high in left-center next to the white flag.
The guy that missed 3/4 of the season because he tore his calf. Rendon out most of the year. Upton (his best friend) out half of the year. You’re saying Mike wants out?
Everyone of course wants to win the World Series and play in the playoffs, but there are many other reasons players like to play for their teams, not the least of which is has to do with where they want to their family. Not-making the playoffs is probably frustrating, but it’s quite presumptuous to assume that would make Trout want to go elsewhere.
My favorite way to have eggs is over-easy, and all I put on them is salt, pepper, and Tabasco. It’s especially good if they’re served with hash browns, with the eggs on top of them, bacon, toast, coffee, and a chocolate milkshake.
Cardinals fans think their team making the playoffs lol
Mets fans thinking their team is competent lol
I just read the most ridiculous Steve Adams comment on his chat transcript from his chat before this. Someone asked Steve if the Braves would keep Adam Duvall. Adams said that Duvall was a good defensive outfielder but the Braves still shouldn’t keep him. He said if they do it should be as a “bench role/reserve outfielder.” Adam Duvall is not only good defensively but he already has 34 home runs and 99 RBI’s. I know Sabermetrics may not like his OBP or strikeouts, but if you think a good defensive player who already has 34 home runs and 99 RBI’s is bench player you are out of your mind. That kind of production from a good defensive player makes them an every day starter on almost any team in baseball. I like Sabermetrics and all but some people are just getting insane with it.
@Bovine: Unless I mis-read something, Steve didn’t say that.
Just saw it was from the previous chat. This chat he said they’d probably re-sign him.
All of that run production and still ONLY a 106 OPS+ (100 is MLB average) with a total WAR of 1.1 on the season. Duvall has been a great pick-up for ATL, but he hasn’t done anything to convince AA he is what we thought he is…a platoon player with peaks and valleys, which is why AA went out and got similar complimentary platoon OF players: Eddie Rosario, Joc Pedersen to build an OF Dr. Frankenstein could appreciate. In the end, AA got what he wanted all along, Pedersen/Duvall at a reduced rate playing a platoon role.
He’s 33 and deserves to be a starter but maybe not in their plans long-term
I disagree with Steve on his belief that JD will opt out.
This has been his worst full year since 2013. Combined with the nagging back injury and last year’s horrendous short season performance, he’d be better off playing out the contract and re-building his value next year.
I know that next year there might be an additional 15 teams looking for a DH, but I don’t think that will lead to bigger contract offers this winter.
BovineCrab:
You can overlook Duvall’s SOs, or overlook his low OBP, but you can’t overlook both. What sabermetrics say is, SOs aren’t that bad if a guy can get on base regularly. With his HR output, getting on base more often would make him a valuable guy.
But, it’s not about HRs or RBI, it’s about creating runs. Fangraphs has Duvall at 108 wRC+ this season, and 98 for his career. If he could get base more often, that wRC+ would increase and that would justify him as an everyday player. At Duvall’s age the Braves should aim higher than a guy that’s only MLB average or slightly better.
For Duvall, make that 35 home runs and 101 RBI’s already. Yeah. that sounds like a “bench role/reserve outfielder” to me. I know people love OPS+. I like it too. I prefer wRC+ but they are both good. Regardless, those are predicter stats. You don’t hit a bunch of home runs and drive in a bunch of RBI’s to hope you get a higher OPS+. You get a high OPS+ in hopes you hit a bunch of home runs and drive in a bunch of RBI’s. You can have a mammoth OPS+ and only have 1 at bat. I’m not saying the Braves should give Duvall a long term deal or anything. I expect both his power and his defense to be there next year like it was this year though. The idea any good defender with 35 home runs and 101 RBI’s should be on the bench is patently ridiculous. Especially when you consider Rosario, Pederson and Soler are all pending free agents, Acuna is injured and know one has a clue what will happen with Ozuna even though we will likely have a universal DH next season. What does Steve Adams expect the Braves to do? Find 3 better outfielders than good defensive 35 home run 101 RBI Duvall on top of a DH? How do the Braves have the ability to put that kind of production on the bench next season? How does any team? It’s ridiculous. I’m not saying Duvall is going to be some great long term player that should be paid a ton of money. I’m just saying the idea that he belongs on the bench is patently ridiculous. Who are the 3 or 4 guys that should start in front of him for the Braves next season?
You clearly don’t understand OPS+ or wRC+. Neither one is a predictor stat. OPS+ is the park-adjusted combined OBP and SLG stats. wRC+ is the park-adjusted runs created stat.
I also prefer wRC+. I agree, both are useful, and there isn’t a huge variance between the two, but both are based on what a guy has done with the bat so far, not predicting what he’ll do in the future.
You’ve put too high a value on RBI. RBI is really a team stat. The hitter has no control over whether there are base runners when he comes to bat or not. You can have 2 guys with identical hitting stats with one having a lot more RBI than the other because of the situation, which is out of their control.
And again, if Duvall could convert some of his SOs to BBs and improve his OBP, thereby creating more runs, he wouldn’t be what he is now, a bench guy/4th OFer.
If Duval is a 4th outfielder, who are the other 3?
RBI are a team stat… Salvy Perez would like to talk to you.
LOL
“If Duval is a 4th outfielder, who are the other 3?”
Silly question. When the term 4th OFer is used, it implies that that guy is not good enough to be an everyday player. He’s better suited to giving other guys days off, or pinch hitting off the bench. It’s not specific to any team.
If a team has to play Duvall as an everyday OFer, it’s because of lack of talent in the OF, or in the case of the Braves, losses of true everyday guys like Acuna and Ozuna. No team with designs on a WS title starts the season with Duvall penciled in as an everyday guy.
“RBI are a team stat… Salvy Perez would like to talk to you.
Salvador Perez: .275/.316/.542, 149 RBI
Matt Olson: .274/.369/.542, 94 RBI
Perez has 5 more ABs and 9 more HRs. They have very similar batting stats, with BA and SLG virtually identical, but Perez has 55 more RBI. How do you account for that?
Neither player has any control over how many guys are on base when they come to bat. The Royals have done a better job of getting on base in front of Perez, than the A’s have done getting on in front of Olson. So yes, a team stat.
Perez has 109 RBI, not 149, but your point still stands.
Oops, you’re correct. Not the first mistake I’ve made, and unfortunately, probably not the last either. 149 is the number of Perez’s SOs.
Interesting enough though, Perez has 10 more RBI, but Olson has a 20 points higher wRC+. Not that that will convince the Luddites, who hate sabermetric analytics, but whatever…
Oops again, Perez has 15 more RBI, not 10.
See, I knew I’d make another mistake. Just didn’t realize it would be so soon.
Metsfan22. Lol.
Mets in fourth place in the NL East in 2022, behind the Marlins.
Actually 3rd and I’m front of Marlins..he’s a joke but…
The Marlins pitching staff is going to be scary good. A few veteran position player pickups, and they could be dangerous.
The Mets don’t need to win a championship. Their fans are already so proud of their “missed WAR” they already believe they’re world champions. Mission accomplished.
George W. Bush recently was at Citi Field to commemorate the accomplishment and hang the “2021 Missed WAR” pennant. It’s flying high in left-center next to the white flag.
Right next to Bidens Afghanistan Mission Accomplished sign?
starting 2 wars at the same time was a dumb decision. even the strongest country cannot wage 2 wars concurrently.
afghanistan is now china’s problem. as china is oppressing muslims in xinjiang area it will have to content with talibans.
How many more seasons do the Angels have to go without making the playoffs before Mike Trout finally requests a trade?
The guy that missed 3/4 of the season because he tore his calf. Rendon out most of the year. Upton (his best friend) out half of the year. You’re saying Mike wants out?
No. I’m asking how much longer this has to continue before he will want out.
That is what you said indeed
Everyone of course wants to win the World Series and play in the playoffs, but there are many other reasons players like to play for their teams, not the least of which is has to do with where they want to their family. Not-making the playoffs is probably frustrating, but it’s quite presumptuous to assume that would make Trout want to go elsewhere.
FWIW, ketchup on scrambled eggs is quite good.
IMO, ketchup on scrambled eggs is good if the eggs are dry-scrambled. I don’t like it on wet-scrambled eggs. But maybe that’s just me.
I don’t have problem with putting ketchup on eggs, I can see why people do. I don’t though, unless it’s an egg sandwich.
I’ve gotta try that.
Yeah, Steve doesn’t know what he’s missing. Ketchup and a lot of pepper on scrambled eggs is where it’s at.
The only thing scrambled eggs need are a boatload of jalapenos and onions all scrambled in!!
@Hubcap: you’re making me hungry.
Have you ever noticed, so many things taste like chicken, yet eggs dont.
That’s deep…
LOL
My favorite way to have eggs is over-easy, and all I put on them is salt, pepper, and Tabasco. It’s especially good if they’re served with hash browns, with the eggs on top of them, bacon, toast, coffee, and a chocolate milkshake.
You had me until the chocolate milkshake.
I thought the same, until a friend had me try it.
Cholula is superior to Tabasco. I find tabasco to just be too vinegary and hot with no flavor.