SEPTEMBER 14: As expected, Boston reinstated Pérez from the injured list before Tuesday’s game against the Mariners. To create roster space, righty Kaleb Ort has been removed from the active and 40-man rosters and returned to Worcester.
SEPTEMBER 13: The Red Sox have activated reliever Hirokazu Sawamura from the COVID-19 injured list. Fellow reliever Austin Davis is also back from paternity leave. In corresponding moves, Brad Peacock and Stephen Gonsalves were returned to Triple-A Worcester. Peacock and Gonsalves had each been selected to the roster as COVID replacements, so they can be removed from the active and 40-man rosters without being exposed to waivers. Additionally, right-hander Eduard Bazardo has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list and optioned to Worcester.
Sawamura has been out since August 31 after testing positive for the virus as part of the spread throughout the Sox’s clubhouse. Signed to a two-year deal over the offseason after a nine-year career in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, Sawamura has a 3.09 ERA over 46 2/3 innings during his first MLB season. The 33-year-old has shown some worrying control issues, walking 14.2% of opposing hitters, but he’s also punched out an above-average 26.5% of batters faced.
Peacock has made two appearances (including one start) since being acquired from the Indians and called up in the early stages of the outbreak. He has allowed nine runs in 5 1/3 innings. Gonsalves, meanwhile, has worked 4 1/3 innings of two-run ball in relief, his first big league action since he tossed 24 2/3 frames as a rookie with the 2018 Twins.
Manager Alex Cora provided updates on a few more players on the COVID IL (via Chris Cotillo of MassLive and Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe). Lefty Martín Pérez is expected to make it back tomorrow, while closer Matt Barnes will make a couple minor league rehab appearances and is expected to return to the big league club this weekend. The team hopes that ace Chris Sale, who tested positive on September 9, will make it back to start a game against the Orioles this weekend.
Sawamura will be a scary/fun reliever to watch if Boston makes the playoffs. Heavy on the scary.
He’s much better than all the relievers Cora has thrown against the wall to see who sticks.
This is all good news, except Davis. Maybe he can stay home with the newborn and his wife can pitch in his place?
Not sure how old you are Fever but imagine if Bill Campbell pitched today. His ball exploded before he blew out his arm and with medical science today, with surgery and rehab who knows? There are many like that but he comes to mind because I saw him sitting behind the plate and was amazed at the movement in his fastball.
Dewey my very first year of Sox fandom included Soup, I agree with you.
Completely agree. I’m not saying its a bad move, just that he would be one guy that I would get nervous seeing come into a game in the playoffs. But, when his splitter is “on” he is amazing.
One thing to point out about all the walks is that six of those walks are intentional walks so his control isn’t as bad as it looks.
He also had an appearance back in June where he came in and walked three batters, then left. He’s been solid overall. That particular appearance was a back-to-back, and generally speaking, his game log doesn’t suggest he should be used in back-to-backs whenever possible.
His presence means less of Robles in big spots, which Red Sox fans ought to be happy about. He’s a fine mid lev RHP.
rhswanzey you’ve summed him up perfectly.
And with this being his first year in MLB, I expected a bit of an adjustment period living in a different country and all.
Kids! Come upstairs and get some cookies Mom baked fresh for you. You need to get out of the basement and go outside!
It’s a nice day outside. Stop leaving inane comments.
Is this your new thing? It’s quite annoying considering you are filled threads to make this comment
Nothing personal, but you sound a bit strange, perhaps very strange. If you don’t like the conversation, you don’t have to listen.
And to sign in and comment that other commenters should not be commenting, is flat out weird.,
Fortunately, we have a mute button. Bye-bye.
Some people are only happy when they’re unhappy.
Go figure.
Removing those six intentional walks would drop his walk rate from 14.2% to 11.3%. That number isn’t so great but it’s much more manageable and his FIP would be at a more palatable 4.96 and his xFIP would be at 4.12.
JB – Here is the five team update for the two wild card spots =
TOR = expected wins 91
Current series w/TB at home TOR 1-0 (prediction is 2 of 3)
NYY – expected wins 90.
Current series w/MIN only 1 game at home 1-0 (prediction is 1 of 1) BAL Tuesday
BOS – expected wins 89
Current series w/SEA away 0-1 (prediction is 1 of 3)
SEA – expected wins 88
Current series w/BOS at home 1-0 (prediction is 2 of 3)
OAK – expected wins 86
Current series w/KC away (prediction is 1 of 3) starts Tuesday
Current standings
TOR – 81 – 63
NYY – 80 – 64
BOS – 81 – 65
SEA – 78 – 66
OAK – 77 – 66
Tied for the 2nd WC but percentage points behind NYY.
I’m not interested in betting. I agree that OAK finishes behind BOS.
Sox are 2-4 in one run games during the past week.
Brasier should not be put in high leverage situations.
The issue is, right now, none of our RPs belong in high-leverage situations. They’re not bad, and I trust our full BP to protect a decent lead. But right now, we only play one-run games, and that’s where you need a shutdown closer and setup guy.
Joe that’s a bit harsh, don’t ya think?
Ottavino hasn’t given up any runs in 10 of his last 12 appearances, I trust him.
Whitlock has had his moments, but I still trust him too. Since July 3rd he’s pitched 2 or more innings seven times, and didn’t give up any earned runs in any of those appearances. Sunday’s blown save was the first time all year that he pitched in consecutive games, I think Cora has conditioned him to not pitch consecutive days therefore when he does, he’s not at his best.
Darwinzon has been great, he has given up earned runs in only 7 of his 43 appearances.
Taylor has given up an earned run in only 2 of his last 9 appearances.
Sawamurza has given up an earned run in just one of his last 8 appearances.
I trust all of those guys, they are not the problem.
Whitlock has been money in high leverage situations all season. He could re-throw that last pitch to Leury Garcia 100 times over and Garcia may never hit it. Richards has done faily well in his opportunities. Taylor was pumped up big time the other night. The bullpen has gotten better but Brasier definitely should have been lifted before facing Haniger last night
Kudos to the work you put, and doing so without a lot of commentary.
I usually work my projects out to one decimal place since, for example, Boston should go 1-1 v Seattle, but their real expectation is more like 0.9 wins.
Toronto has exploded, and done so in some tougher series, having taken 7-7 from Oakland & the NYY, and now TB. They have the second easiest opponents, and 11-18 at home. I have them at 92.4 wins.
Next on my list are the RS. They’ve lost some games recently, but are still playing reasonably well. And the games they played make up the bulk of tougher opponents. And they were road games. The last time I did this, they had 8 at home and 12 away. That is now 8-8. I have them at 90.7.
The NYY, courtesy of a BP that walked Rizzo on 4 pitches to lead off, and then followed that up by Walking Gardner, to get to Judge, are now at exactly 90 wins.
I have Seattle at 88.2. They have a rougher schedule. KC is their easiest opponent, but the three games are at KC. The other 15 are Boston, Oak, and LAA.
Oakland I have at 86.5. Like Seattle, their easiest three are at KC. Then it’s LAA, Oakland and Houston.
One of the things that might make a difference is the timing of the games. A .450 team can still be tough, because players are still playing for contracts. The NYY end with 3 v TB. TB won’t be playing a lot of their regulars, and their SPs will be on pitch counts.
For the RS, it will come down to splitting the final 2 at Seattle, and taking 2-3 at home v the NYY.
Joe – That was a horrible call on Gardner. It was Strike 3, not Ball 4. I watched the game and the replays, clearly outside the strike zone. Twins pitcher had every right to curse on the way off the field. Seems like bad umpire calls often help the Yanks.
You can always have a bad call, but you shouldn’t be in that position. With Rizzo, and a 3-run lead in the bottom of the 8th, throw the ball right down the middle. A lead-off walk is worth 0.416 runs. Rizzo has 2 HRs in 26 ABs swinging 3-0. On the 8% chance of him HRing there, v a run expectancy of .413 if you walk, there is no doubt he should throw the ball down the middle.
Gardner has an .814 OPS on full counts, with 16 HRs in 778 ABs. If he takes you deep (2%), you still have the lead. It is more theoretical than practical, but if you walk a guy with a big lead, you should probably be taken out of the game. It means that you lack the ability to throw the ball down the middle.
Agreed, no excuse for walking hitters with a big lead. But to me 3 runs is not a big lead.
3 runs in the 5th is still early. 3 runs in the 8th is late. And it is the hitters as well. You need to get thru the inning before Judge and Stanton get up. If they allowed hits to Rizzo & Gardner, these things happen. But don’t do their work for them.
To me, it is the equivalent of someone walking Vazquez and Iglesias with the 1-5 hitters coming up. You just cannot ever do that.
Totally agree with you there, can’t give Judge an opportunity with 2 on.
That’s really the whole thing in a nutshell. It was like a badly written movie script, where you know the ending 15 minutes into the movie. The absolutely only thing that you couldn’t do was to face Judge, and they had to walk two guys to make that happen.
But that’s why baseball has more variance than the other sports.
Agreed, but Duffey can’t throw it down the middle like you said. He’s not a power pitcher, he tops out at 94 with little movement. Blame belongs on the ump, or at least he shares the blame with Duffey.
And the guy didn’t pitch that bad, just 1 hit and 1 walk in 2 innings.
Joe has some nice analysis!
JB – The pitching rotation needs to hold up. E-Rod, Pivetta and Seabold can’t have any clunkers. They should start the 3 games at home versus Baltimore. Eovaldi and Houck should draw the home games with the Mets. Then, if Sale isn’t back the three must pitch at home versus the Yankees. That will be a huge series and BOS like you said needs 2 of 3 to have hopes for the 2nd wildcard.
If Sale comes back when eligible on the 19th against BAL that might be a blessing if they have dropped one already. That pushes E=Rod and Eovaldi to the Mets series which could be a sweep if E-Rod pitches well. Then Houck gets game one against the Yankees with Sale on 5 days rest for game 2 and either Seabold or Pivetta in game 3.
The Red Sox have FOUR open days from Sept 16 to the 27th so they could realign their starters for the NYY series by having Sale start the first game of the series on four days rest after his start on the 19th, They could push up Houck to pitch against NYM on the 21st and Seabold on the 22nd so Eovaldi could pitch game 1 versus the Yankees, with Sale game 2 and E-Rod game 3. That probably makes the most sense due to the critical nature of the series.
Either Sale/Eovaldi/E-Rod or Eovaldi/Sale/E-Rod. Two lefties against the Bombers in Fenway should be a real challenge.
The six game road trip to end the season is a couple of trap series. Baltimore should be 1 win for sure and maybe even 2 with 3 not being impossible but the last time it appeared that way BAL swept the Red Sox so they’ll need to play with a sense of urgency. The WAS series should also be a trap series because anything could happen. It’s logical to think 1 of 3 but 2 of 3 is reasonable and even 3 of 3 is possible BUT thinking that way could lead to an 0 and 3 series which would stick a fork in them.
The Red Sox are fortunate to play two weak teams on the road the last two series but as good as it COULD BE it could also be a DISASTER.
When I checked this a week or two back, it was supposed to be Sale, Eovaldi & ERod, and it doesn’t get any better for us. But like you say, we have the flexibility to make that happen.
ERod can pitch on 9/18 & 9/24, Eovaldi can pitch on 9/14, 9/19 & 9/25. Sale can pitch on 9/21 & 9/26.
I believe that leaves open 9/15 (Houck), 9/17 (Pivetta), and 9/22 (Houck if we are maintaining the order). But if Pivetta turns in a big performance on 9/17, we could skip Houck.
Of course, CBS has Sale penciled in for 9/17, and I can’t complain if he returns early.
KD – Where did you hear that Sale is eligible on the 19th?
My understanding is 10 days after his first Covid Positive test, which would mean he’d be eligible this Friday.
Regardless, with all the days off coming up we better not have anyone not named Sale/Evo/Pivetta/ERod starting a game for the next couple weeks.
And a very important bit of information has yet to be mentioned by anyone here.. We have been BLESSED with not having to face Means or Ellis this weekend. That is a HUGE, HUGE advantage for us.
Ellis has a 2.08 ERA and Means a 3.42 ERA, both have been pitching very well and are not easy to beat.
1967 No Playoffs — win the pennant or go home.
White Sox were the favorites with a week to go. They only had 5 gms left –two vs KC (A’s) & 3 vs Wash (Senators). two of the worst in the AL that yr. Teams were using 4 man rotations and due to off days the WSox only needed three of the best in MLB that yr — Joel Horlen (2.06 ERA) Gary Peters (2.28 ERA) Tommy John, pre TJ Surg. (2.47 ERA) The three had combined for 15 CG / SO’s. The WSox lost all 5 gms to finish 4th.
That’s why they play the gms on the field not on a computer.
I remember that well. With two games to go, 4 teams within one game in the loss column of each other.
Jml1950 – The Red Sox were a half game ahead of the White Sox with a week to go but they had four games to play. Two games with CLE and two games with MIN at home making the White Sox the team to beat like you said. Three top SP for CWS and KC and WAS being pathetic. With CLE being bad that year the games with MIN were the key ones that were supposed to be the challenging part of the remaining schedule.
CLE swept BOS with wins by Tiant and Sonny Siebert so with 2 games left they were 90-70. CWS by that point had fallen three times already so they were a game back like DET who was playing CAL. MIN was tied with BOS and had 2 games at BOS for the title. A split would open the door for DET and CHI but that didn’t happen. First Santiago won on Saturday and then Jim Lonborg beat Dean Chance on Sunday!!
I remember on Sunday during the last game being very worried when they fell behind 2-0 early in the game but they got to Chance in the 6th with 5 runs all started by a bunt single by Lonborg followed by 2 more singles. Then Yaz came up with the bases loaded. I remember going crazy watching the game wanting a grand slam. Yaz singled in 2 runs to tie the game.
Then a bit of a bizarre play happened and it hurt Minnesota. Their great SS named Zoilo Versalles (had his baseball card) had a ground ball hit by Hawk Harrelson take a funny hop and by the time Versalles threw home Dalton Jones scored to take the lead 3-2. I remember they pulled Chance and I felt relieved because I thought he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. George Scott was next but again MIN was doing everything they could to blow this game so their reliever threw back to back wild pitches and Yaz scored to make it 4-2. Scott struck out and. Tartabull ran for Hawk and was on third when Rico walked to set up a double play with one out. Reggie Smith grounded to HOFer Killebrew who made an uncharacteristic error allowing the 5th run to score!
Minnesota did a lot to give the game to Boston that day. In the meantime, Lonborg coasted to a 9 inning win only surrendering one more run in the eighth and cementing his Cy Young award.
Best end to any regular season!! Rivals the 2004 Yankee win but probably should rank #2 in Red Sox history!!
Sawamura fits in nicely with the relievers on the Red Sox. He gives up 12.7 base runners per 9 innings. Not good. He gives up a home run every 5 IP. Not good. He walks too many with or without intentional walks. Not good. But his FIP shows he has bad defense behind him. Is that a shocker to anyone? The Red Sox still have Devers playing 3B.
Overall, he is a perfect example of a mediocre pitcher that doesn’t cost much that was procured by a bargain basement GM. I’m sure teams like TOR, TB, NYY, CWS and HOU won’t light him up! hahaha
Grasping at straws is the phrase I would use if you think he’s a savior for the bullpen.
Great FIP, bad defense is a trend for the Sox.
There was no reason to have Schwarber at 1B last night with Dalbec on the bench, none.
I’m curious who you would sit? JDM?
They need to keep Schwarber and trade JD this off-season if at all possible.
Schwarber in LF, Dugie in CF, Kiki at 2B, Dalbec at 1B as late inning defensive changes.
Having both players on the right side of the infield out of position is not smart in the late innings of a close game.
I really hate the defensive alignment with Verdugo in CF.
I know, he’s not a strong CF’er. But whenever Hunter is in the lineup, Dugie won’t play RF.
Overall it’s better to have just one player kinda out of position (Dugie) than to have two players (Jose, Schwarber) out of position with your solid defensive 1B riding the bench.
And regardless of his splits, Dalbec should still face RHP.
FPG/JB – I want to see Renfroe in CF and Verdugo back in RF with Schwarber in LF, JD at DH, Kiki at 2B. Verdugo looks lost in CF and Renfroe is better in RF than Verdugo so he’ll probably be better in CF too.
That gives them their top 9 hitters in the line-up. Iglesias needs to sit.
At times I want to see Hunter in CF too, but fact is he’s started only one game in CF prior to this season (and only 3 this season) because he doesn’t have the range to play the position. And in Fenway his arm is needed more in RF.
Not all great RF’ers can play CF. Dewey was one of the greatest RF’ers ever, he couldn’t play CF to save his life.
FPG – Your comment about RFers is very true but I think it applies more to Verdugo than Renfroe. Remember, JBJ could not only catch he had a gun like Renfroe which mean shallow fly balls to CF would be potential assists for JBJ and I think Renfroe could do the same. I just know watching Verdugo that he’s clueless out there. He can’t judge how high up the wall a ball is gong to hit, he turns the wrong direction on balls hit at him and his footwork going back towards the wall is not good but he has the same problem in RF whereas Renfroe doesn’t.
JBJ was the total package, he had every skill set possible for a CF’er.
i saw him stand on home plate at Fenway and throw a baseball into the CF seats, absolutely remarkable.
But you kinda ignored what I said about Renfroe’s lack of range. LOL
And speaking of, have you been watching the games? Hunter just made his 11th error last night. I know he’s had some personal issues, but at some point he’s got to show he’s at least decent catching the ball. Last night’s error was downright embarrassing. If it were Lackey on the mound instead of Evo, he would have been quite animated about it.
Yup, if SD and TB say he can’t play CF, he pretty likely cannot play CF. Lots of guys are really good at the corner, but fail miserably in CF.
I sure hope tonight’s line-up is:
LF Schwarber
SS Bogaerts
DH JD Martinez
3B Devers
‘CF Renfroe
RF Verdugo
1B Dalbec
C Vazquez
2B Hernandez
Too few games left to be starting Iglesias. Too few games left to not maximize the top of the order OBP. Too few games left to not get Bogey into that 2nd hole for one more at bat at the end of the game. When the bottom of the order rolls to the top in the 8th or 9th inning it’s always better to have your four best hitters first.
I agree all those guys should be starting basically every game, with Plawecki occasionally catching.
What order would you put them in?
Do you think it’s time to move Dalbec up in the order? The guy has sick numbers since early August, I think he should be hitting behind JD.
FPG – He could swap with Renfroe but keeping Devers where I have him keeps a lefty or righty relief pitcher from having an easy 3 batter stint.
I am a huge Dalbec fan and as I have pointed out multiple times, his numbers at this point in his career are better than Devers. His batting is slightly ahead and his defense is light years ahead.
FPG – Cora went with
Kiki CF OBP .335
Renfroe RF OBP .318
Bogaerts SS OBP .370
Devers 3B OBP .350
Martinez DH OBP .349
Dalbec 1B OBP .297
Plawecki C OBP .346
Verdugo LF OBP .355
Iglesias 2B OBP .299
So he sat Schwarber (OBP 359) for Iglesias!! That’s a bold move Cotton!! Actually, it’s incredibly stupid as usual.
Note what my proposed line-up would have looked like from an OBP perspective:
Schwarber LF OBP 359
Bogaerts SS OBP .370
Martinez DH OBP .349
Devers 3B OBP .350
Renfroe CF OBP .318
Verdugo LF OBP .355
Dalbec 1B OBP .297
Plawecki C OBP .346
Hernandez 2B OBP .335
They need a new manager who understands baseball and his job.
And yet somehow Schwarber won the game. Hmm.
Cora doesn’t think, he lets the stats from his computer think for him.
Because a LHP was starting for Seattle, and Schwarber doesn’t perform as well against LHP, Cora thought it was a good time to rest him.
Thank God Cora had the common sense to reverse his decision and bring him into the game!!!
Just because someone makes a perfect decision, that winds up winning the game for them, doesn’t mean the decision was wrong.
Just because he plays someone with a significantly better OPS against lefties, doesn’t make it wrong.
Just because he chooses a defensive lineup over an offensive lineup, doesn’t make it wrong.
And just because he went with the player with better career numbers v Anderson, doesn’t make it wrong.
Just add up the numbers.
1-Better L/R matchup
2-Better defense
3-Better heads-up results
And it won’t get noticed in the Boston press for a week or two, but Schwarber is coming back to earth, with a .458 OPS over his last 9 games.
And, just for fun, there is a reason why Schwarber has been a semi-platoon player for the past 6/7 years. And that’s because he is not a good enough fielder to be able to carry a career .675 OPS against lefties.
24kt Arm!
I’m an FCAS. The two levels of CAS membership are Associate (ACAS) and Fellow (FCAS). Requirements for these levels of membership include a comprehensive series of exams. Topics covered in the exams include statistics, mathematics, finance, economics, insurance, enterprise risk management, and actuarial science.
I will predict the number of wins that the Red Sox will have at the end of the season when I can be 100% accurate. Actually, it won’t be a prediction at all. This team is an enigma. And the code changes every day.
I have no idea how this will play out. That is what is great about baseball.
It’s fun guessing how things will wind up, but that’s all it will be … guessing.
Way too many unknown factors to make any type of accurate prediction.
That’s why I never bet on sports.
Yeah Perez should save our season.
Book the championship parade.
What do you know? The Red Sox won again. And Schwarber got a big hit. Go figure.
And Cora stupidly started Iglesias again last night, and all he did was get a single, double, walk, RBI, and started an awesome DP.
KD17 is a troll. He will never admit to facts
For the NYY –.Rizzo OPS .776 Gallo OPS .683
For the Sox — Schwarber OPS .877 Shaw OPS .933 Iglesias OPS 1.150
And since Aug 1 Dalbec is 3rd in AL in OPS and 1st in SLG%
Sure those are short term but short term is all you need this time of yr.
KD was the guy that said 70 wins for the RS was a fantasy. And then tried to back that up by predicting our win total against each opponent.
Since I believe that the failure of America (if we do fail) will be because of our innumeracy. KD’s inability to recognize that the RS would score more than allowed, and thereby be likely to be > .500 was an insult to mathematicians.
And relying on a team-by-team analysis, instead of aggregating a simple runs scored v runs allowed, was an insult to statisticians.
Basically, my mission here is nothing less than to save America by using baseball as a teaching tool.
I would be teaching geometry here, as well, but I need a pool table for that purpose.
JB – In March 70 wins was a fantasy. Just be thankful it came true. The probabilities were heavily against it. Weak skill level from the new GM and key greats from the old days that had bad 2020s were the core team to forecast from. Wanting/wishing something is NOT a scientific approach to predicting things.
Your mathematical BS is ridiculous. Runs scored in a vacuum based not on what the team did in the previous two years but some fabricated system you concocted. Your system is a joke. Why didn’t you explain that the pitchers would over-perform before they did? Because it wasn’t possible to forecast that anomaly. Several players weren’t even on the team when you made your WAG (wild ass guess) which further diminishes the credibility of your forecast.
Yes, it’s better to be lucky than good and you are a walking poster for that saying. Your fictitious win totals with partial wins listed puts you one step from being a con man. At least, if you are inventing numbers show your work like others on this site so when something lucky happens you can argue why it should have happened not just run around like a child saying I told you so because your GUESS was right. Act like a grown up.
Your guess was right. That should be satisfying enough. If you want to impress everyone. Show your work in coming up with these completely bogus numbers. It’s probably hard to fabricate the data behind a guess, isn’t it!!! hahaha.
KD17
Why didn’t you explain that the pitchers would over-perform before they did?
========================================
I said that the RS pitching would be about league average. We have a team ERA of 4.29. The league average is 4.33.
I said that we would be in the top-3 in scoring. We are #4.
There is no voodoo or physics here. Every hitter that we have is well within range of their expectations. I think everyone is within 10%, and I think almost all are within 5%.
On the pitching side, we have a lot more variance, but still consistent as a group. Eovaldi’s season has almost exactly offset ERod’s season. Richards and Perez are almost exactly at their career and recent numbers.
The only surprises on the pitching side are that Pivetta has been able to maintain his focus for the full season, and that Whitlock has been our MVP. That and the health of our rotation.
That probably accounts for the difference between my pre-season projection of 85.5 and my current projection of 91.8. But we aren’t even remotely close to your ’70 wins is a fantasy’.
If you want, you can create a bridge to show how the RS went from your less than 70 project to the current projection of (hopefully) 92 wins. But I’d be shocked if you found anything. The RS didn’t go from 70 to 92 (?) because Eovaldi went 10-8, or because Bogaerts had a .875 OPS. These things were expected.
Joe — save your breath — KD is a Troll.
He says Cora is a terrible mgr.
He says Bloom gave him a hopeless roster.
So under KD’s scenario somehow a terrible mgr with a hopeless roster is on pace to win 90+ gms.