I think they certainly have the worst defense on paper. Their biggest threat, in my opinion, will be Oakland. Their D was pretty putrid by most metrics and subtracting Olson and Chapman from the equation will make it that much more painful.
Oakland has huge foul ground which makes it easy to pick up risk-free foul popups and reduce the number of harder outs in each game. Plus I think the Phils are worse at most every position. It’s going to be fun/horrible to watch them this year.
Believe it or not Schwarber was a better defender than Cutch last year. So while I think the Phillies defense still stinks, I really don’t think it’ll be worse than 2021. I think people tend to believe Schwarber, Harper and Castellanos will all be playing defense at the same time, and that likely won’t happen much if at all.
I’d disagree that Cutch was worse than Schwarber. I’d say they were equally bad. Cutch had a -7 DRS, while Schwarber had a -5. But in OAA, which most people seem to prefer, Cutch was a -5 and Schwarber a -6.
Cutch’s arm makes me prefer Schwarber, but pick your poison. My point is, I don’t think the Phillies 2022 defense is any worse than 2021. People are talking like this will be a historically bad defense. I don’t see it. It’s going to suck, but we saw that last year. Meanwhile their offense is significantly improved.
So glad you’re here to educate these peeps. Another thing to note is the arrival of Stott, which will happen this season. They could even move Gregorious to third at that point and improve both positions. Not only is the Phillies D not worse, there is a chance it’ll get better by year end.
I have no problem with replacing Cutch with Schwarber. Both bad defenders, but a better bat with Schwarber. But having Castellanos, and Schwarber is not ideal. The Phillies will be fun to watch though.
The defense is bad enough to do it, but the pitching staff (at least, Wheeler and Nola) is good enough to work its way out of some of those jams, so I say no.
he’s played a lot so far, as has Stott. with Didi mashing, I think it’s a three horse race for 3B, and I can’t help but feel Bohm may be losing it. Stott will probably still start in AAA for 40-man management reasons, and Camargo’s ability to move around may see him see time elsewhere, but as things are trending I think Camargo will get a nice ammount of 3B action starting off, and probably more total ABs than Bohm. Bohm seems to need to be in a rythym – I’d probably start him out at AAA.
Perhaps you should at least do the math before you just make yourself sound stupid mlb1225? Hosmer has $59 million/4 years left on his contract. Sale? $105 million/4 years. Sale would immediately put the Padres over the tax, double that salary commitment and the Padres do not need pitching.
What the hell are you talking about? What does Chris Sale have to do with this? I didn’t read the chat transcript yet, so I assume that someone brought up something about Sale in a Hosmer deal? But are you assuming that’s me? Anytime I ask anything in a chat, I use my screen name. But that’s besides the point.
Why would the Padres, or the Red Sox swap Sale for Hosmer? The Red Sox already have a first baseman in Bobby Dalbec. He might not be a top tier 1B, but he’s better and cheapter than Hos at this point. Plus with Casas coming up through the pipeline, that would make even less sense.
You come to the Chat commentary, you comment in the Chat commentary…without reading the commentary? So you are saying that you just throwing RANDOM comments in here are the rest of us are supposed to know that YOUR COMMENTS HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH WHAT THE REST OF US ARE TALKING ABOUT? Sure.
Classic. Accuse the other guy of what you’re guilty of. Are you top embarrassed to admit that mlb1225 made no mention of a Hosmer for Chris Sale trade, after saying he made himself look stupid for suggesting one?
Again read the original comment from hockeyjohn, that says Hosmer is untradeable. Then read mlb1225’s reply, saying that what SD would have to do to move Hosmer probably isn’t worth doing. Then tell me how Sale became any part of it.
Maybe you’re the one that has no idea what anyone is talking about. Either that, or put down the pipe for awhile. You’re not making yourself look any better..
After 2022, he’ll be making an AAV of $13 million for the next 3 seasons. That’s not an awful lot, but nobody is going to take on a near $40 million contract for a guy who hasn’t put up a wRC+ of 110 or better in more than 300 plate appearances since 2017.
If it’s not that much of an albatross, why have we been hearing about SD trying to move the contract for for the last couple seasons, and yet he’s still a Padre?
Because Hosmer hasn’t hit in San Diego. If Hosmer produces the way he did in Kansas City you would never hear about it at all. What you would be hearing is “team(s) interested in Padres Hosmer”
I don’t think teams would be that interested in Hosmer, with his salary, even if he hit like he did in KC. I think SD was fooled by the 133 OPS+ in his walk year there, which appears to be an outlier. He averaged only a 107 OPS+ in his first 6 seasons in KC.
That 107 OPS+ is only 5 points better than his SD average. The 133 OPS+ boosted his career average in KC up to 111, still only 9 points better than his SD average.
Not that many teams are going to be interested in a 4 year/$60M commitment to a 111 OPS+ guy.
Rizzo is a much more productive hitter. Career OPS+ for each is Hosmer 108, Rizzo 127. In wRC+ the difference is even wider, Hosmer 107, Rizzo 129. Their career WAR is Hosmer 18.1, Rizzo 36.8.
The overall AAV is the same, but Rizzo’s deal is half as long as the commitment to Hosmer, so Rizzo’s AAV should be higher.
Heyward for Hosmer. Cubs throw in a little money. Friars send Heyward a Greyhound ticket to go home. Everyone wins. Padres shed some salary and Cubs get mediocre first baseman to compliment the 81 win team they will be fielding the next four years
I don’t do that if I’m the Cubs unless some good prospect is attached. Heyward has defensive value and is gone after 2023. 1B is a lot easier position to fill. I don’t think anyone wants Hosmer for 4 more years. Maybe next season when the commitment goes down to 3/$39M.
Between sanctions, trades and promotions, the Braves milb quality and depth are looking pretty thin and their MLB payroll is shooting up. I wonder if they have one more trade left in them? Michael Harris II, Braden Shewmake and pitching for Reynolds?
I think the Braves have a good enough team if Acuna makes it back quickly to repeat this year. As long as nobody important had any big injuries anyway.
You were asked about having all new division winners and you said that (among others) the Dodgers would to tough to supplant.
The Dodgers didn’t win the division in 2021. The Giants won the NL West with a ML leading 107 wins. So if the Dodgers win the division, they would supplant the current division title winner.
deGrom missed significant time down the stretch. Scherzer finished the year with a dead arm. Bassit had the freak injury with the batted ball strinking him. Carrasco missed the majority of the season. Only Walker made it through unscathed. On paper the Mets rotation looks really good but certainly they need to put a lot of 2021 behind them
For at least half-a-dozen years now the Mets problem during the season is that when injuries occur they don’t have the depth to cover them.
I learned long ago that much of what looks so clear heading into opening day is proved wrong within 6-8 weeks; and then throughout the season. It’s not just injuries – it’s often the impact of veteran players that make adjustments to their games along with the way the manager uses them.
I understand what the Mets did this offseason, but don’t think it will have the impact most think. It’s only because NLE teams have so many holes that they in contention. They’ve continued to sign and trade for veterans that are at least a bit past their prime. Older veterans tend to get injured, and when they do it takes longer for them to heal. It’s incumbent that Max and deGrom make 60 starts between them. Not so sure that’s going to happen. Have questions about other older players as well.
Additionally, in-season trades are necessary as we can’t project he weaknesses teams will have before opening day. Usually teams that are out of contention and willing to deal a player having a good year want young cheap controllable payers back in trade. The Mets yet again traded some of their upper level minor leaguers this offseason. What they appear to be able to offer in trade will be older players that are not cheap or long-term controlled.
Mr. Cohen keeps saying he wants to build the farm system. It’s what needs to be done. But he keeps trading away most of his prospects, and apparently he seems willing to go over the luxury tax and pay the fines. That’s understandable. But there are also penalties regarding the position his team will be able to draft in.
I can’t wait for all this to unwind. Let’s say the man keeps paying and paying, so that in 5 years his ML roster has a $700m-1b payroll. At that point when he makes a move will he be paying players salaries as that’s the only way other teams an afford to take them on?
Were I an owner I’d have no problem with that. Get a decent player that’s being overpaid at bargain basement prices. As a fan, it will be fun to watch.
And looking at the Mets offseason every player added that figures to be regulars on the roster are 33 or older. The Mets are definitely in win now mode but they now sport one of the games oldest rosters. I can envision a scenerio like last season where they get out of the gate hot and watch it slip away as the season goes on
FWIW, it might have done some good for Walker to go on the IL considering how bad he was post-AS Break (0-8 in 13 GS / 7.13 ERA, 1.37 ERA with a .254 BAA).
Re what the CLEVELAN-DIANS are waiting on. They have a full 40-man. So ANY acquisition is going to have a ripple effect. They’re definitely not going to give up a draft pick to sign Conforto to a 1-2 contract. They may look at trading some of their middle infield prospects for another bat.
they dropped the ball on acquiring an excellent bat in Winker. For a team that refuses to pay free agents, that was your best play by far. I think the Ms will be very happy with how that trade works out for them. I realize that CLE doesn’t have a clear place for Suarez in that deal, but still..get creative and make it happen. Give the fans SOMETHING…CLE has been without MLB outfielders for FIVE seasons now…Glad I’m not a fan of that team
This is for the posters:
Could the Phillies lead the league in unearned runs this year? Who would beat them out?
I think they certainly have the worst defense on paper. Their biggest threat, in my opinion, will be Oakland. Their D was pretty putrid by most metrics and subtracting Olson and Chapman from the equation will make it that much more painful.
Oakland has huge foul ground which makes it easy to pick up risk-free foul popups and reduce the number of harder outs in each game. Plus I think the Phils are worse at most every position. It’s going to be fun/horrible to watch them this year.
And when they come up to bat, they’ll crush the ball.
If Philadelphia and Oakland are competing for worst defense, who is the most improved?
I would think the Reds because trading Suarez and losing Castellanos is addition by subtraction from a defensive standpoint
Last year the Dbacks led with 87 unearned runs. Phillies were mid-pack, a little better, with 52. Castellanos and Schwarber likely won’t help.
Believe it or not Schwarber was a better defender than Cutch last year. So while I think the Phillies defense still stinks, I really don’t think it’ll be worse than 2021. I think people tend to believe Schwarber, Harper and Castellanos will all be playing defense at the same time, and that likely won’t happen much if at all.
I’d disagree that Cutch was worse than Schwarber. I’d say they were equally bad. Cutch had a -7 DRS, while Schwarber had a -5. But in OAA, which most people seem to prefer, Cutch was a -5 and Schwarber a -6.
Cutch’s arm makes me prefer Schwarber, but pick your poison. My point is, I don’t think the Phillies 2022 defense is any worse than 2021. People are talking like this will be a historically bad defense. I don’t see it. It’s going to suck, but we saw that last year. Meanwhile their offense is significantly improved.
So glad you’re here to educate these peeps. Another thing to note is the arrival of Stott, which will happen this season. They could even move Gregorious to third at that point and improve both positions. Not only is the Phillies D not worse, there is a chance it’ll get better by year end.
I have no problem with replacing Cutch with Schwarber. Both bad defenders, but a better bat with Schwarber. But having Castellanos, and Schwarber is not ideal. The Phillies will be fun to watch though.
The defense is bad enough to do it, but the pitching staff (at least, Wheeler and Nola) is good enough to work its way out of some of those jams, so I say no.
I’m hoping Camargo gets the chance to start at 3B over Bohm. That will improve the defense significantly at one position, at least.
he’s played a lot so far, as has Stott. with Didi mashing, I think it’s a three horse race for 3B, and I can’t help but feel Bohm may be losing it. Stott will probably still start in AAA for 40-man management reasons, and Camargo’s ability to move around may see him see time elsewhere, but as things are trending I think Camargo will get a nice ammount of 3B action starting off, and probably more total ABs than Bohm. Bohm seems to need to be in a rythym – I’d probably start him out at AAA.
gotta push Bohm in a deal for Montas.
No team is going to take Hosmer and his contract. The Padres are stuck with him.
Padres would have to take on at least half of his contract and include a good prospect. At that point, it would be better just to ride it out.
If it were that easy, he would be gone already after how long they have been trying to get rid of him.
no, it’s not tjat easy. this would presume SD is willing to eat half his salary ana attach a good player.
Perhaps you should at least do the math before you just make yourself sound stupid mlb1225? Hosmer has $59 million/4 years left on his contract. Sale? $105 million/4 years. Sale would immediately put the Padres over the tax, double that salary commitment and the Padres do not need pitching.
What the hell are you talking about? What does Chris Sale have to do with this? I didn’t read the chat transcript yet, so I assume that someone brought up something about Sale in a Hosmer deal? But are you assuming that’s me? Anytime I ask anything in a chat, I use my screen name. But that’s besides the point.
Why would the Padres, or the Red Sox swap Sale for Hosmer? The Red Sox already have a first baseman in Bobby Dalbec. He might not be a top tier 1B, but he’s better and cheapter than Hos at this point. Plus with Casas coming up through the pipeline, that would make even less sense.
Javia135:
Maybe you should read what was wrote. That way you wouldn’t make yourself look stupid. What’s Sale got to do with it? Nobody said anything about Sale.
mlb1225 was saying what it would basically take for any team to take Hosmer. He was speaking generally, of course, and I think he’s generally correct.
You come to the Chat commentary, you comment in the Chat commentary…without reading the commentary? So you are saying that you just throwing RANDOM comments in here are the rest of us are supposed to know that YOUR COMMENTS HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH WHAT THE REST OF US ARE TALKING ABOUT? Sure.
@ Javia135;
1. You didn’t need to call the man a name.
2. The only person in the thread above that I see talking about Sale is you.
I have a lot of people on mute, so maybe someone brought it up. Is that what happened?
Feel free to insult me. I have a lot more handles I can mute.
Classic. Accuse the other guy of what you’re guilty of. Are you top embarrassed to admit that mlb1225 made no mention of a Hosmer for Chris Sale trade, after saying he made himself look stupid for suggesting one?
Again read the original comment from hockeyjohn, that says Hosmer is untradeable. Then read mlb1225’s reply, saying that what SD would have to do to move Hosmer probably isn’t worth doing. Then tell me how Sale became any part of it.
Maybe you’re the one that has no idea what anyone is talking about. Either that, or put down the pipe for awhile. You’re not making yourself look any better..
This is the last year he has a $20M paycheck. It drops to $13M for each of 23-25. Maybe they can trade him next year.
That’s not entirely true. Hosmer’s contract is not quite the albatross that many make it out to be. If he hits he’ll have teams interested
After 2022, he’ll be making an AAV of $13 million for the next 3 seasons. That’s not an awful lot, but nobody is going to take on a near $40 million contract for a guy who hasn’t put up a wRC+ of 110 or better in more than 300 plate appearances since 2017.
Rsox:
If it’s not that much of an albatross, why have we been hearing about SD trying to move the contract for for the last couple seasons, and yet he’s still a Padre?
Because Hosmer hasn’t hit in San Diego. If Hosmer produces the way he did in Kansas City you would never hear about it at all. What you would be hearing is “team(s) interested in Padres Hosmer”
I don’t think teams would be that interested in Hosmer, with his salary, even if he hit like he did in KC. I think SD was fooled by the 133 OPS+ in his walk year there, which appears to be an outlier. He averaged only a 107 OPS+ in his first 6 seasons in KC.
That 107 OPS+ is only 5 points better than his SD average. The 133 OPS+ boosted his career average in KC up to 111, still only 9 points better than his SD average.
Not that many teams are going to be interested in a 4 year/$60M commitment to a 111 OPS+ guy.
Considering the Yankees gave Rizzo 2/$30M you might be surprised
Rizzo is a much more productive hitter. Career OPS+ for each is Hosmer 108, Rizzo 127. In wRC+ the difference is even wider, Hosmer 107, Rizzo 129. Their career WAR is Hosmer 18.1, Rizzo 36.8.
The overall AAV is the same, but Rizzo’s deal is half as long as the commitment to Hosmer, so Rizzo’s AAV should be higher.
Heyward for Hosmer. Cubs throw in a little money. Friars send Heyward a Greyhound ticket to go home. Everyone wins. Padres shed some salary and Cubs get mediocre first baseman to compliment the 81 win team they will be fielding the next four years
I don’t do that if I’m the Cubs unless some good prospect is attached. Heyward has defensive value and is gone after 2023. 1B is a lot easier position to fill. I don’t think anyone wants Hosmer for 4 more years. Maybe next season when the commitment goes down to 3/$39M.
Between sanctions, trades and promotions, the Braves milb quality and depth are looking pretty thin and their MLB payroll is shooting up. I wonder if they have one more trade left in them? Michael Harris II, Braden Shewmake and pitching for Reynolds?
I think the Braves have a good enough team if Acuna makes it back quickly to repeat this year. As long as nobody important had any big injuries anyway.
You were asked about having all new division winners and you said that (among others) the Dodgers would to tough to supplant.
The Dodgers didn’t win the division in 2021. The Giants won the NL West with a ML leading 107 wins. So if the Dodgers win the division, they would supplant the current division title winner.
Thanks for clarifying…….
That was mentioned in the chat.
I like Toronto over TBAY in the East and Mets pitching in the other East.
deGrom missed significant time down the stretch. Scherzer finished the year with a dead arm. Bassit had the freak injury with the batted ball strinking him. Carrasco missed the majority of the season. Only Walker made it through unscathed. On paper the Mets rotation looks really good but certainly they need to put a lot of 2021 behind them
Rsox;
Great comment as usual.
For at least half-a-dozen years now the Mets problem during the season is that when injuries occur they don’t have the depth to cover them.
I learned long ago that much of what looks so clear heading into opening day is proved wrong within 6-8 weeks; and then throughout the season. It’s not just injuries – it’s often the impact of veteran players that make adjustments to their games along with the way the manager uses them.
I understand what the Mets did this offseason, but don’t think it will have the impact most think. It’s only because NLE teams have so many holes that they in contention. They’ve continued to sign and trade for veterans that are at least a bit past their prime. Older veterans tend to get injured, and when they do it takes longer for them to heal. It’s incumbent that Max and deGrom make 60 starts between them. Not so sure that’s going to happen. Have questions about other older players as well.
Additionally, in-season trades are necessary as we can’t project he weaknesses teams will have before opening day. Usually teams that are out of contention and willing to deal a player having a good year want young cheap controllable payers back in trade. The Mets yet again traded some of their upper level minor leaguers this offseason. What they appear to be able to offer in trade will be older players that are not cheap or long-term controlled.
P.S.
Mr. Cohen keeps saying he wants to build the farm system. It’s what needs to be done. But he keeps trading away most of his prospects, and apparently he seems willing to go over the luxury tax and pay the fines. That’s understandable. But there are also penalties regarding the position his team will be able to draft in.
I can’t wait for all this to unwind. Let’s say the man keeps paying and paying, so that in 5 years his ML roster has a $700m-1b payroll. At that point when he makes a move will he be paying players salaries as that’s the only way other teams an afford to take them on?
Were I an owner I’d have no problem with that. Get a decent player that’s being overpaid at bargain basement prices. As a fan, it will be fun to watch.
@Samuel
And looking at the Mets offseason every player added that figures to be regulars on the roster are 33 or older. The Mets are definitely in win now mode but they now sport one of the games oldest rosters. I can envision a scenerio like last season where they get out of the gate hot and watch it slip away as the season goes on
FWIW, it might have done some good for Walker to go on the IL considering how bad he was post-AS Break (0-8 in 13 GS / 7.13 ERA, 1.37 ERA with a .254 BAA).
Re what the CLEVELAN-DIANS are waiting on. They have a full 40-man. So ANY acquisition is going to have a ripple effect. They’re definitely not going to give up a draft pick to sign Conforto to a 1-2 contract. They may look at trading some of their middle infield prospects for another bat.
Do you sense a trade soon to clear 40 space? Would kinda like Cal-Q and Franimal back… =)
they dropped the ball on acquiring an excellent bat in Winker. For a team that refuses to pay free agents, that was your best play by far. I think the Ms will be very happy with how that trade works out for them. I realize that CLE doesn’t have a clear place for Suarez in that deal, but still..get creative and make it happen. Give the fans SOMETHING…CLE has been without MLB outfielders for FIVE seasons now…Glad I’m not a fan of that team