Diamondbacks shortstop Nick Ahmed has battled right shoulder issues for almost two years, and will now consult with Dr. Neal ElAttrache after continued discomfort in Ahmed’s shoulder led to a shutdown in his rehab process. Ahmed has already been out of action on the COVID-related injury list, but as D’Backs manager Torey Lovullo told The Arizona Republic’s Jose M. Romero and other reporters on Friday, Ahmed’s shoulder was still giving him problems during a recent rehab game.
Noting that Ahmed bounced more than one throw to first base during the game, Lovullo said it “felt like he was trying to gut things out and the shoulder just was not responding. It was just a little too much for him to handle, the workload.”
A visit to Dr. ElAttrache doesn’t always equal surgery, yet such a decision might be necessary given that Ahmed’s other treatment methods (including two cortisone shots during the offseason) apparently haven’t worked. The injury has also intermittently lingered for close to two years, though Ahmed didn’t actually go on the IL due to the shoulder problem until late last September.
Never known as a big offensive threat, Ahmed’s .235/.293/.365 slash line over 744 plate appearances since the start of the 2020 season isn’t far off his overall career numbers. However, Ahmed’s defensive decline is perhaps the greater sign that something is amiss, as Ahmed has +5 Defensive Runs Saved and 0.5 UZR/150 over that same three-season stretch. While many shortstops would be quite pleased with these numbers, they represent a step back from Ahmed’s superb glovework from 2015-19 (73 DRS, 4.7 UZR/150), a stretch that saw him win Gold Gloves in both 2018 and 2019.
With only 17 games played in 2022, Ahmed’s season could quite possibly be over, if surgery is needed to finally correct his ailing shoulder. Even in a best-case scenario, it seems like Ahmed will still miss quite a bit more time before he is healthy enough to get back onto the field. Until Ahmed returns, Geraldo Perdomo will presumably continue to get most of the reps at shortstop, with Jake Hager also getting the occasional playing time.
Looking at the longer-term picture, Ahmed is in the third season of a four-year, $32.5MM contract extension signed prior to the 2020 campaign. The extension seemed like a solid investment for the D’Backs at the time, given Ahmed’s defensive excellence and the fact that he was coming off one of his better offensive seasons (a 19-homer, 254/.316/.437 campaign in 2019). While Ahmed still contributed 2.9 total fWAR over the 2020-21 seasons, his injury problems mean that the contract could be chalked up as another of many moves that simply haven’t worked out during two rough seasons for Arizona.
Ahmed is owed roughly $4.9MM for the rest of this season and then $10MM in 2023. That’s a notable price tag for a player who will be 33 on Opening Day and possibly coming off a lost season, yet Ahmed’s struggles also mean that the Diamondbacks wouldn’t have much luck in trading Ahmed unless they eat much of that salary or swap Ahmed for another player on an undesirable contract. The likeliest scenario is that the D’Backs just hang onto Ahmed as the bridge to top prospect Jordan Lawlar, who is shredding A-ball pitching but doesn’t turn 20 until July.
A bit surprised he hadn’t seen Dr. ElAttrache prior if this has been an issue for two years.
Probably due to repeatedly patting himself on the back for his contract.
Went to watch Lawlar play when Visalia came to San Bernardino. Kid is definitely a talented ball player. Did it all. One of those players that’s head and shoulders above the rest.
They’re coming back to play the 66ers for six games starting on the 21st. Hopefully Lawlar is off the IL by then. I’m gonna attend some more games.
Best case scenario for the surprisingly good Dbacks would have been for both Ahmed and Peralta to be productive this year and the Dbacks trade them at the deadline to contenders with injured players at SS and LF. Not because the Dbacks are giving up on this season, because they are definitely in the Wild Card hunt despite playing in the loaded NLW. But because the Dbacks have young prospects jumping into those two positions, who are just as productive. Perdomo is holding his own offensively, is already an excellent defensive SS and is getting better every day. And the Dbacks have a glut of good, young left handed hitting OF.
If Peralta can keep what he’s been doing up, there’s a good possibility that he garners enough attention to get traded. Even with him gone Luplow, McCarthy, Smith, Thomas, and Varsho should be able to hold down the fort in the OF (and they already have Stone Garrett if they’d like to get another RHB into the mix).
With Perdomo’s demonstrated plate discipline, essentially anything above league worst contact quality is at least average offensive production; problem is that he’s among league laggards for contact quality. He’s looking promising so far in spite of his warts, though.
Speaking of looking promising so far, Rojas’s 3B defense hasn’t looked completely terrible (in fact, he’s currently 93rd percentile among all defenders for OAA and has positive DRS numbers; UZR is negative, but it’s also an improvement over last season in a larger sample size). He’s also shown comparable plate discipline to Perdomo, if not superior.
Many hands have been wrung about Walker, but he’s still 97th percentile(!) among all fielders by OAA and has been positive by every defensive metric thus far (including the ones incorporating a positional adjustment). Also, his xwOBA is sitting at .420 on the season; for context, Mike Trout’s xwOBA has been .429 this season. Christian has had horrific batted ball luck, expect some more hits to start dropping going forward (or don’t, I prefer glass half full).
I’m of the mind that Varsho should be deployed more frequently in the OF than C, but he’s been pretty solid (especially in controlling the run game) and nobody is really pushing him off of the position. His bat more than makes up for the defensive deficiencies, but the roster is a lot better with Kelly functioning (even in a shortside platoon capacity). The multi-catcher roster has been a favorite of Hazen for a while now, and Varsho gives the best opportunity to effectively utilize that strategy.
Who knows when Ketel will show up; it wouldn’t be the first time that it’s taken him a sizable portion of the season to heat up. But when he heats up, he’s really the only one the you can comfortable project star-level output from.
Position player-wise, they’re in a weird spot. Essentially every position has been manned effectively enough (compared to expectations) that the only way to reasonably upgrade the mix would be to trade for a competent SS and upgrade over a preexisting bench piece (like, say, the mix of Alcantara/Ellis/Hager/Hernandez) by pushing Perdomo to that role. Probably the most reasonably priced candidate for that would probably be Dansby Swanson and that’s only if the Braves are completely out of it; I just don’t think that’s realistic nor practical long-term.
If Peralta plays well up to the trade deadline, the team is best off getting a lottery ticket to open up PAs.
Shoulder injuries suck, I tore my labrum and it took about 5 months after surgery to start finally feeling better.
Not saying he has a torn labrum but if he does, better to get it fixed and be ready to play for his next contract next year.
Prob won’t be with the diamondbacks with Lawler in the fold, but still plenty of other teams out there, one should want him.
Lawlar is in Low A and hardly played last year and is injured again now. I have doubts whether he’ll be ready in 2024 when Ahmed’s contract is over.
Let’s Go agreed, Lawler shouldn’t be pushed too fast. I think Perdomo is developing well. And I’m beginning to suspect that Ahmed’s shoulder will never be the same as it once was.
Sounds like it’s pretty serious if they just picked up Cole Tucker.