Cubs right-hander Alec Mills underwent a discectomy procedure on his lower back Wednesday, the team announced this morning. He’d been out since July 3 with a lower back strain and was moved to the 60-day injured list late last month.
The surgery obviously closes the book on Mills’ 2022 season, and it also raises the question of whether he’ll be back with the team in 2023 and beyond. The Cubs can control the 30-year-old righty for three more years, but he’d be due his first arbitration raise this winter after throwing just 17 2/3 innings this season due to that balky back. Mills also pitched 119 frames with the 2021 Cubs, logging a 5.07 ERA with more promising peripheral marks (6.6% walk rate, 51.3% grounder rate, 4.49 FIP, 4.33 xFIP).
Mills has now spent parts of six seasons in the big leagues, nearly all of which has been as a member of the Cubs. He’s tallied 256 1/3 innings of 4.95 ERA ball with a 19.5% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate and 48.5% ground-ball rate. At various points in his Major League tenure, he’s looked the part of a back-of-the-rotation starter and interesting reliever, offsetting a below-average strikeout rate with good command and above-average ground-ball tendencies. However, Mills has now also had three separate IL stints due to lower back issues over the past two seasons.
The general hope is that this week’s surgery will alleviate that issue for good. Only time will tell whether he’ll get an opportunity to continue with the Cubs. Chicago has Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele, Keegan Thompson, Adrian Sampson and prospects Caleb Kilian and Hayden Wesneski as potential rotation options for the 2023 season, with lefties Drew Smyly and Wade Miley set to reach free agency. They’ll also hope for better 2023 health for former top prospect Adbert Alzolay. Still, as the team looks to take steps forward, owner Tom Ricketts has vowed to be “active” in free agency, and the rotation is a logical place for president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer to pursue fortifications.
Mills could certainly be retained as rotation depth, although he’s also out of minor league options, so if he’s tendered a contract he’d need to be carried on the Major League roster or injured list. Non-tendering him and re-signing him to a minor league deal is always a possibility, though all of those decisions will hinge on just how quickly he’s expected to recover from Wednesday’s surgery. At present, the Cubs have not provided a timetable for his rehabilitation.
Remember when he threw a no hitter?
No
Pepperidge Farms remembers.
Mills is the definition of replacement level. He just has no margin for error w his stuff – guy throws mid 60s curveballs- but that forces him to really.pitch and when he is on, can be fun to watch.
Still, if he can get healthy, he could still be an okay 6th or 7th starter fill-in type. And, yes, he did somehow throw a no hitter vs Milwaukee.
Mils100… is that you, Alec ?
This is not a major back procedure and he should recover fully from it. The real question is whether or not he’s worth keeping. He’s basically a warm body for the Cubs to start or bring out of the pen but he’s not a difference maker at all.
There’s barely a need for one Kyle Hendricks, let alone another.
hes simply a non-tender, it sucks big-time. I’ve had my eye on Mills since 2019, and he’s shown some flashes, that 2020 no-hitter was something, but there’s simply too many pitchers who are gonna be on the 26man roster next year, we already have like 9 who are guartiened a spot, with 4 fa additions, or prospect call ups. I also don’t see them re-upping him to a minors deal, cubs know he wants to get back to the majors, they’ll probably let him test the market all winter before giving him a invite in the spring if hes still available, and maybe he’ll make it on if we suffer from injuries but I doubt it.
If Mills even comes close to sniffing the Cubs roster in 2023 that’s not a good sign for the cubs. They will have enough of 40-man roster crunch this offseason that I see no way they keep him. Sure if no one else wants him, they can sign him to a minor league contract, but even then, there’s really no way I wanna see him have to end up on the big league roster. And I even like the guy, and the fact he pitched a no-hitter is amazing!
deGrom makes him expendable anyway.
Would be awesome but how do the Mets let that guy walk- even with the injury history
I’d love to see Cubs pursue Rodon but he has his own durability concerns
His Cubs career should be over. No room on the 40-man for him.
I think that Mills will end up with a non-tender and might get and NRI so that he can continue to rehab with the Cubs staff. But I’d expect that he would start out the year at Iowa with perhaps a Memorial Day opt-out clause so that he can show that he is healthy.