The Reds’ .383 winning percentage in 2022 ranks as the sixth-worst mark in the franchise’s 122-year history. Over the past 24 months, they’ve traded away former mainstays Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray, Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez, Raisel Iglesias, Tucker Barnhart and Amir Garrett. Once names like Donovan Solano, Mike Minor and Hunter Strickland formally become free agents after the postseason, the Reds will be left with one of the league’s youngest rosters. When addressing the team’s ugly season yesterday, general manager Nick Krall suggested that the roster will remain one of the youngest in the league next year (link via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer).
“We’re going to come into (2023) in a similar place that we are right now,” said Krall. While the GM suggested the team will “try to make improvements,” his subsequent comments about how everyone will need to earn a spot on next year’s roster in Spring Training don’t exactly portend an active winter on the player acquisition front.
“I don’t know if we have a ‘this is going to absolutely be this person’s position on Opening Day,” Krall stated. Those comments are particularly eye-opening given the presence of stalwart first baseman Joey Votto still being on the roster, though the 39-year-old will be entering the final season of his 10-year contract in 2023. Mike Moustakas, the only other guaranteed contract on the books, is also entering the final season of his four-year deal but has played himself out of an everyday role over the past two seasons, hitting .212/.289/.356 in 491 plate appearances. There’s also 2021 NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India to consider; he’s not signed to a long-term contract and is in search of a rebound at the plate after taking a step back in ’22, but one would still think he’s in line for regular playing time.
Setting aside any implications for players currently on the roster, Krall’s comments seem to further suggest what was already largely assumed — that the Reds aren’t likely to fill any of their numerous holes with a free agent of note or swing any sort of trade for established Major League talent. That fact is further reinforced by Nightengale reporting within the piece that the payroll, which has decreased in each of the past two seasons, is likely to be pared even further back in 2023.
The Reds spent $106MM on the roster in 2022, but with several in-season trades and now Minor, Solano and Strickland coming off the books, that figure will be easy to reduce. Votto and Moustakas, owed a combined $43MM, are the only guaranteed contracts remaining for the Reds next year. They’ll have a slate of players eligible for arbitration, but none who can be expected to command salaries of real note. Buck Farmer, Luis Cessa, Kyle Farmer, Lucas Sims, Jeff Hoffman, Nick Senzel, Tejay Antone, Justin Dunn, Aramis Garcia, Derek Law and Aristides Aquino will all be eligible for arbitration this winter, but several of those names are non-tender candidates — and the ones who’ll clearly be tendered (e.g. Antone) won’t have particularly high salaries.
Just how low the payroll will be stripped down remains unclear. The very presence of Votto and Moustakas means that even if the roster were rounded out solely with pre-arbitration players — which obviously won’t happen — the Reds would spend at least $60MM. They’ll very likely run out a heftier budget than that, but Krall’s end-of-season comments and the recent trajectory of the Cincinnati payroll don’t give fans much hope that reinforcements are on the way.
It’s been a brutal several years for Reds fans, who were subjected to six straight losing seasons from 2014-19. The trades made along the way, intended to rebuild the farm system, generally didn’t bear as much fruit as hoped, but the Reds still cultivated a strong rotation, spent on key free agents like Nick Castellanos, and made the playoffs in the shortened 2020 season. That looked to have set the stage for a return to prominence in the NL Central, but Reds ownership has instead been among the most aggressive groups in baseball at shedding payroll in the wake of the shortened 2020 season and the absence of gate revenue.
The latest rebuild looks to be off to a better start — the return from the Castillo trade, in particular, is viewed to be a strong one — but it’ll likely be a couple more years before the Reds’ system yields a viable Major League core. By that point, they’ll be approaching a decade of losing baseball, with the only respite being the two-month sprint in the midst of the pandemic — when fans weren’t even able to enjoy the success in person.
Where they gonna go?
Very sad to see the reds crippled by that Votto contract, but that’s what happens when mid market teams operate stupidly. Would Cleveland operate like that? Nope.
Vottos contract isn’t the problem.
The Votto contract aged fairly well. It’s every other contract they’ve given out that’s been bad.
Votto’s contract has been fair to both sides. It has not prevented the Reds from fielding a competitive roster. Before Opening Day, they cash a check for almost $70 million each year (local and national TV rights), so they can afford to have a more substantial payroll. They just don’t spend money wisely or develop young players well. The Guardians, on the other hand, turn out young players like a factory. Credit to them. Copy their strategy.
Years ago people were crying because Cleveland was set up to win their division or at least do well and they traded their guys for prospects. Now they’re in a pretty good state with a young team.
In the context of MLB money today, that contract’s almost a non-issue. The Reds have gotten more than money’s worth out of that deal. And at this point, Joey Votto is just about the only reason anyone would buy a ticket.
The Castellinis don’t care – AT ALL – whether the Reds ever win another game. It’s painfully obvious.
They made a couple moves in 2019, didn’t win the World Series, and decided “Well, we tried.” LITERALLY, every move since has been to save dollars.
Sad.
I’m moving to Arizona in a few weeks so Dbacks
You think the Reds have issues, the Dbacks also have a cheap owner. You’ll love the roof on Chase Field when it’s 115 degrees. Cheap parking though.
I understand they are rebuilding and they need to honestly. I’m not opposed. They have too much money tied up in Moustakas and Votto at the moment. I knew 2023 was still going to be a rebuild year. I want to know about 2024. Lower the payroll for 2023, but you better be ready to spend again in 2024.
The roster has some good, young players such as Nick Lodolo, Hunter Greene, Tyler Stephenson, Jonathan India, and Alexis Diaz. Then there are several prospects who should be ready to make an impact in late 2023 or 2024. I just hope they spend when they need to.
True, but they had better be ready to add some free agents to go along with the prospects. I am not talking about just one or two either. For instance, there are no OF prospects to speak of in the Reds chain at high levels. They could convert some of the surplus infielders to outfielders or trade them for outfielders or sign some FA outfielders. There will have to be some astute moves by the Reds which leaves one to wonder.
brassred66;
First, the owners must want to sell. Then they have to find a buyer(s) interested in a franchise in the smallest market in MLB. In turn, they need to find some FO people to run the Baseball Ops area for them – and leave them alone to do it. The problem there is that they’ll be so limited in operating revenue that they’ll pretty much be the Rays North. Getting stuck with even one or two bad free agent contracts – as the Reds have had with Votto and Moustakas – can sink the team for years. This doesn’t make the Reds an attractive franchise to buy, or one where some of the more attractive FO talent wants to work at.
Even worse, the fans are involved and bright, but don’t seem to accept that unlike their NFL franchise, the MLB franchise will never be on pretty much equal footing with other franchises when it comes to signing free agents and retaining their quality players as they approach free agency. (Equal sharing of revenues will never come to MLB.) The Rays can get away with turning over players because the vast majority of sports fans in the Tampa Bay area can take or leave the Rays. They don’t get attached to their players as Reds fans do.
In its way, Cincinnati is a worse situation than Tampa Bay or Oakland. And it’s amazing to me that so many are calling not just to have MLB expand to 2 more franchises, but adding far more. All those calling the owners “cheap” and attacking them don’t realize that there isn’t a line of investors clamoring to buy their franchise unless they can move it somewhere – preferably out of the continental USA.
There isn’t a single MLB franchise that wouldn’t have investors clamoring to buy them – they’re monopolies. Quit drinking the kool-aid.
mrkinsm;
You really believe that?
You’re the one drinking the kool-aid.
In the past 2 years one franchise has ben sold and 2 others are up for sale. If it’s so wonderful, why are owners getting out?
Are you seriously asking me why 75 to 95 year olds are selling their businesses?
Each of these owners has made hundreds of millions of $ in their investments owning a ballclub.
Bob Castellini, should he desire to sell the Reds in the near future, will make 5x what he spent.
Not the smallest market, but not too far away. The current owner group has quadrupled it’s investment while making money the whole time. I’d guess that’s attractive to most people. I’d also agree that the fans get to attached to the players. Cincinnati will only truly support a winner, diehards exist but not in the numbers needed to carry a losing organization. Greater Cincinnati is only slightly smaller than Greater St Louis, but they have sustained a winning organization for a long time. No one is moving the Reds away from Cincinnati, I’d doubt the MLB would even allow it.
What are you talking about? Reds fans have been loyally supporting a loser for nearly 3 decades now. Castellini vowed to bring back winning baseball to this club when he purchased it, he has failed – failed magnificently.
We just had our lowest attendance since GABP has been built. It’s not a knock against us fans, it’s a knock against the current owner.
2nd time in a 150 years, so probably not very likely
Brutal post Sam !
Reds would do well to follow A’s and Rays model. They’d do well signing away front office folks from both those organizations too. Reds are the worst ran franchise in baseball.
Biggest shame is that the owners still make money and their investment increases in value without having to produce a quality product. Monopoly is a very accurate term
Big whiffa;
LOL
Of course the franchises make money. I’ll say it again……
An investor can put money into tax sheltered, fixed interest rate investments and make money with no risk, no liabilities, no headaches.
Many MLB franchises sell shares to minority owners. Those owners expect to be paid in profits the same way stockholders expect dividends. If an ownership group can’t pay that then no potential minority owner will invest with them.
I’ve been aware of multiple MLB franchises that has to go to investors for additional money for operating capital. Franchises are better about that now – and the reason is they don’t listen to people like you that think profits are automatic, they’ll cut costs anyway they can to avoid losing money.
I like Jonathan India and Noelvi Marte as players to build around. Stephenson, Lodolo and Diaz are also keepers. Reds, Pirates and Nationals all look like 100 game losers in 2023. Hope Steer will be better than what he showed this past month.. I thought the Mike Minor acquisition was one of the worst for the year in all of MLB. There has to be multiple free agent or AAA journeyman who could put up those stats for less money. Not saying better, but equally bad for millions less.
You left out Greene. Still with all of them there is a lot more needed.
And also Elly De La Cruz..
I agree Elly De La Cruz and Cam Collier have high upsides. Even with the high heat, I do not see Greene becoming a #1 pitcher, but yeah, also a keeper.
Loved the Lodolo pick and this season past season as a rookie showed how much impact he can make. Thinking I like him more than Greene as a now, and would not be surprised if he is the opening day starter next season. Not sure on Steer, but has shown some other qualities at the plate. Won’t matter, they’ll be dealt in 2 years time as they get better.
Hey Bob & Phil, be prepared for a 1M attendance next year. The fans of Cincinnati are done with you, I for one will not give you another penny.
2023 has got to be Joey Votto’s farewell tour as there is zero chance he is on the roster in ’24 and has repeatedly said he won’t play for anyone else.
There has to be a bad contract swap somewhere that they could move Moustakas.
Of the arbitration eligible players Kyle Farmer and Luis Cessa are the likeliest to return. Senzel is a big maybe and the rest are probably non-tendered.
India, Stephenson, Lodolo, Diaz, and Greene give the Reds a few exciting players. Elly De La Cruz should be up at some point early next season but i would expect a lot of minor league invites to spring training again and hoping to hit on a few like they did this past season
I have to completely disagree that ’23 Has to be Vottos last year. He put up terrific numbers in ’21, despite playing with an injured shoulder for five or so years that he played through that the Dr’s. told him would eventually catch up to him. He arrived at Spring Traing last season a physical specimen, unlike alot of players his age that start to get fat and lazy (see Miggy). Say he comes into camp physically fit and matches his ’21 numbers or better, and wins comeback player of the year? I’d sign .260, 34 bombs and 100 Ribeye Steaks for 20 mill all day long for ’24. Not one other player on the roster will ever come close to that, and he deserves the chance to at least go out on a team that’s young and exciting… He’s EARNED THAT!
The votto contract destroyed their payroll for a decade. Stop being a fanatic for one second, take a step back, and ask- what good has votto done for reds in past decade ??
They should have traded him with a 1 1/2 left before he hit FA.
Votto puts butts in the seats and sells jerseys. I’d argue at least half of those years under that contract were good.
Besides, if your baseball team can’t handle ONE bad contract, no matter how big, you shouldn’t be playing.
“Votto puts butts in the seats and sells jerseys.”
jekporkins;
You know that how?
You really think many people go to a major league game to see one player? For years? A position player that bats 3-5 times a game, and makes outs more than 60% of the time?
And if let’s say Votto was traded, they wouldn’t buy the jersey of another payer on the team?
Think you need to speak with some professional marketing people.
The Votto contract has had absolutely nothing to do with the Reds putrid play.
What has had an affect is the fact that over the past 30 years the Reds have drafted and signed just 10 players who have a career bWAR of 10 or more (and that includes Justin Turner – who never suited up for them).
What has had an affect is the fact that over the past 30 years the Reds have signed and developed just one player (yep – just one….Cueto) from the Dominican Republic who has put up a career bWAR of 10 or more.
What has had an affect is the fact that aside from Cueto they’ve signed just 3 other international free agents over the past 30 years who have put up a career bWAR of 10 or more.
What has had an affect is the fact that the Reds have never spent more than 64M$ on a single FA. And they choose to do that on a low OBP, 30+ year old, infielder that they already had his spot filled.
What has had an affect on their putrid play is their constant failure on the scouting and development side, a failure to spend on analytics, etc…!
I’m hardly being a “fanatic”…if anything I’m being a realist, and YOU are delusional. I hope they keep paying him 20 plus mill on a year to year basis for as long as he wants to play, so tiny minds like yours can explode everytime he puts pen to paper…
Would you sign him over Belt, Ruf or Voit maybe. Would you pay him half of what he is making, not a chance.
MannyBeingMVP I would most certainly sign Votto over any of those three. Look at his 2021 numbers, he had a VERY good season, and that was while playing with a torn rotator cuff. Of course I like Votto, always have. I don’t think I’m being a homer here though. Dude works harder than anyone in the game, and comes into camp every year a physical specimen. I see no reason why he can’t come close to his ’21 numbers in ’23 if he’s 100% healthy. If the three you mentioned put up those kind of numbers teams would be salivating to sign them. My prediction…Joey has a terrific year in ’23 and wins the Comeback Player of the Year. Then the Reds renegotiate his option and he plays in ’24…
I think you have the wrong Luis Castillo link.
Make the Reds, Pirates, A’s and Marlins part of a 4 A league.
Reds would still loose a 100 games
It appears that if one owns a team and runs it as a business without having stellar “employees” It will be hard to be a success. Even up to 4-5 star players is not enough to compete with the Yanks, Dodgers, Mets, now the Padres, and others who have deep pockets. Even taking into account 2016, the Cubs are a most futile franchise, but they were smart over the last two years, but the corner is about to be turned, hopefully.
There are teams like the Reds, Pirates, A’s, Tampa, Marlins that cannot afford to make draft mistakes which happens all too often to many teams.. It doesn’t take long to go over the drafts of the last 15-20 years and look at all the players in the first two rounds that never panned out.
I do see a bright spot with some of their young pitchers, like Greene, who can be difference makers, but you will need some bull pen arms and a closer to be able to finish out games to make that all work with pitch counts fully in play. Losing Castillo really hurt as did Sony Gray.as those guys kept you in games. I am becoming more of the opinion that only spending money on FA pitching makes sense. Scherzer is becoming the exception as might Garrett Cole. If Cole can’t control the HR ball the Yanks may be in trouble in the playoffs.
I wish the Red well, even being a Cubs fan since 1952. Who can forget the Big Red Machine days. If the owner won’t spend some money, The draft is the only way. They also may look at the last 5 years in the draft and see who might be available for an invite to spring training.
Jim Tavegia;
LOL
I wouldn’t talk about spending money (or trade capital) on Scherzer based on what he did for the Dodgers in 2021 and the Mets in 2022…..especially yesterday.
Pirates and Reds are a disgrace to the game.
They used to be the best. The Lumber company vs the Big Red Machine. Had great scouting, always had a young player coming up to replace their aging veterans. Owners just want to maximize profits today, little incentive to field a competitive team. Hurting themselves in the long run as more fans stop following their team. Maybe after a certain number of years with a losing record you lose your revenue sharing money. I bet the Pirates and Reds owners would be signing free agents like the rest of the teams in baseball instead of just watching the waiver wire.
While none of the Reds fans are getting what they want in any of this — the lack of competitiveness after the team’s quality in 2020 must be galling — the return on many of these trades (the lone exception being the Sonny Gray deal) have been tremendous for the Reds.
The Reds farm system is churning out top tier position talent now, and the Reds pitching is going to be amazing in 2024.
Greene
Lodolo
Williamson
Ashcraft
Is a ton of talent
Diaz is going to be an effective closer.
Positionally,
Stephenson
India
Marte
De La Cruz
Maybe
Barrero
Steer
Are an excellent start to the lineup. 2024 looks very bright.
That still doesn’t make me feel great if I’m a Reds fan based on where the team was in 2020, but the Reds 2024 looks more competitive than most of the other basement teams in 2022.
As a fellow reds fan I agree and don’t, yes I’m excited about all the talent and the ones we have yet to see but keep in mind we aren’t the only club that had that and, we don’t know how to build a team. Other franchises will build (cards) and buy (cubs) both of which we can not do..
Let’s be realistic about our expectations.
Be nice if they can resign Drury in the off-season. He was a good fit with the Reds, will be interesting to see what kind of offers he gets in the off-season, I’d think he would be on a lot of teams radar.
The Reds are not going to going to compete for the postseason in 2023 so I do not see them offering Drury more than two years and $12 million, which I doubt will get it done. He’ll be on the wrong side of 30, age-wise. Infield is Votto, India, Farmer, Barrero and Steer. I think India will bounce back big in 2023.
MannybeingMVP I can see them moving India back to 3rd and playing maybe Steer, possibly McClain at 2nd. Indys legs took a beating last year, and as a result he didn’t play well defensively at all. If they’re smart they’ll protect him.
Hard pass on Barrero he’s terrible
No thanks on Barrero he just can’t hit
Being a Reds fan is tough and even worse is knowing we have amazing young pitching talent some that have yet to show up and tons of athletic dynamic middle infielders that’ll be used in the OF that will honestly ultimately only manifest .575 win percentage at best because this ownership doesn’t know how to build a team.
Quietly assembling a nasty starting rotation.
Lodolo and Greene. Both fight the injury bug. Who else is ready as a starter? Williamson and Stoudt maybe but haven’t exactly dominated AAA.. Ashcraft hasn’t been that great at the ML level thus far.
Ashcraft was the best out of the 3 before his injury. He is a very effective pitcher. Greene and Lodolo looked sharp after their rehab stints
ksoze… I agree, and with the exception of Lodolos back issue early in the year, I tend to believe that the shoulder problems with Greene and Ash were more a way of limiting their innings late in the season than a serious injury.
I don’t know what games you have been watching. He is not touted as much but command wise probably the best of the bunch early on.
Beyond the three though, we have yet to see anything as far as starters.
The key being early on. The 2nd and 3rd time around the individual teams usually tells the story. The pitcher almost always has the advantage the first time he is seen by the hitters. His overall stats aren’t that good. That being said, I think he has a good chance to be better and help the Reds..I am not getting too excited just yet.
The best teams have a good blend of veterans and youth. What these statements tell me is forget about any new veterans, they are just going with youth. That is fine if they have talent as well. We will see on those we haven’t seen but we all know who they will build around talent wise, but beyond that? There’s why they lost 100 games. No depth after the injuries.
In addition to the above, that also shows an unhealthy bottom line to the team that they have to cost cut. We all know what guaranteed money comes in. I know attendance is down due to performance, but where is the rest of the money going?
I wish Bob would show us his books! I wondered if he’s smuggling money from the Reds to his Castellini Produce Company in Wilder.
Reds fans need to boycott the team until #BobSellTheTeam. The get rid of Nick Krall and David Bell. Bell should have been fired with the other coaches. How many years do we have to rebuild? It’s pathetic! Castellini was the one that gave Votto his huge contract. This team is a disgrace to Cincinnati and Kentucky. Since Castellini bought the team in 2006 they only had 3 winning seasons and 1 playoff appearance. When he bought the team he made the following statement “Despite promising Reds’ fans “We’re buying the Reds to win. Anything else is unacceptable”. What a JOKE! If they are so darn concerned about money, why don’t they do what the Bengals did, selling the naming rights to the stadium and each gate. They probably figured no corporation would buy naming rights as the team is an embarrassment. #SellTheTeam Bob
bigredsfan41017… I believe the Great American Insurance Company already has the naming rights.. good grief..
Next season will be another lost one. 2024 is when Votto’s and Moose’s contracts come off the books and hopefully, the Reds front office won’t be crass again and give Bell another extension. However, the reality is, when you have inept ownership, there’s not much you can do. Castellini might know a thing or two about produce, but he/they have no clue how to build a consistent winner on the field..
I can’t get on board blaming Krall yet for Cincy’s woes. On reducing payroll it’s clearly Castellini’s fault. He has spoken clearly that profit is his only goal. In Krall’s defense, drafting has vastly improved in the last few years with Stephenson, India, Greene, Lodolo to mention a few. Also, recent trades look good with what looks to be better than the returns we got for Chapman. He made wise, low risk signings of Drury and Pham who he flipped for decent prospects. Next year will be rough again but with Votto and Moose’s contracts off the books, a good young roster to work with and a vastly improved farm system we have a chance to begin competing in 24. A little smart FA spending and we could be very good. We’ll see.
How About Getting J.D. Martinez and Brandon Drury As Platoon Hitters For Next Year Wouldn’t Cost That Much and Drury Is From Cinn. Both HR Hitters With An Nice Batting Average
How about getting J.D. Martinez and Brandon Drury as platoon hitters for next year? Wouldn’t cost that much and Drury is from Cinn.. Both are HR hitters with somewhat batting averages.