In the wake of the news that Aroldis Chapman will not be named to the Yankees’ ALDS roster for skipping a mandatory team workout, notes about other Yankees have helped clarify how the Bronx Bombers will prepare to take on the Guardians:
- Gerrit Cole will be getting the start in Game 1 of the ALDS in New York on Tuesday night, manager Aaron Boone announced. Cole will be followed by Nestor Cortes and Luis Severino in games 2 and 3, respectively. Boone stated that he considered different alignments for his starting rotation, but ultimately decided on Cole for the opener. Boone added that the Yankees are likely to opt for a three man rotation of Cole, Cortes, and Severino for the ALDS, considering the series’s unique schedule, which features an off day between the first and second games. The extra off day will allow Cole to pitch Game 4 on full rest.
- Clay Holmes is going to face hitters on Monday, in what he hopes will be a final tune up for the ALDS, reports Meredith Marakovits of YES (via Twitter). Holmes has battled a strain in his right shoulder since the end of September and was last used on September 26. Holmes said that his most recent bullpen felt “free and easy” and that his velocity was good. It remains to be seen whether or not Holmes will be used as a closer in the ALDS, given his second half struggles. Holmes accumulated a 4.84 ERA during the second half, a far cry from his dominant first half, during which he logged a 1.31 ERA.
- Wandy Peralta will be ready and back in the Yankees bullpen for the ALDS, Marakovits reports (via Twitter). Peralta hit the 15-day IL retroactive to September 19 with thoracic spine tightness. Peralta, a left hander, has been one of New York’s most effective relievers, posting a 2.72 ERA in 56 1/3 innings. Peralta projects to be particularly important if the Yankees are to quiet the bats of Guardians lefties, like Andres Giminez and Steven Kwan. He has held lefties to an OPS of .422 in 2022. With Chapman off the roster, Peralta and Lucas Luetge figure to be the Yankees only left-handed options out of the bullpen.
- Matt Carpenter expects to be ready to play in the ALDS, reports Bryan Hoch of MLB.com (via Twitter). Carpenter has been hitting, running bases, and took some grounders at first base on Sunday. After a sensational 47-game summer stretch in which Carpenter slugged 15 home runs and hit .305, the veteran infielder suffered a broken left foot on a foul ball. If Carpenter plays as a designated hitter against the Guardians, it is possible that Giancarlo Stanton will spend some time in the outfield, where he has not played since July 21.
I hate this strategy of opting to get Cole as many starts as possible, given that he’s shown himself the most likely to choke on the big stage. Home runs are killers in the postseason, and there are only four qualified starters with a higher HR/9 and none who’ve given up more home runs this year. The bullpen is much weaker now than in the first half, and if he gets knocked out early, the ripple effect on the relievers is likely to be disastrous.
Cole has a 4.12 ERA in the second half and had a 4.50 ERA in September. But he gets paid the most, so he’s “the ace of the staff.”
better to choke with the best
He’s not the best. That’s the point. He’s a high-strikeout pitcher. That doesn’t make him an ace. Greg Maddux had a career 6.06 K/9, but he was an ace. The closest thing to an ace on the Yankee staff is Nestor Cortes.
Yes I can attest to the horrors and dyspepsia that can accompany a start by a gopher ball spewing starter. My man Robbie Ray is up there with King Cole with being homer prone, and I am loath to even see him again in a post season start. But I mean, c’mon. Bob Ray gave up the same amount of homeruns last year, and won the Cy Young. So I am sorta perplexed on why this season the longball has been more detrimental to his stat line.
I can’t say. From a cursory scan of his numbers, it looks like Robbie was rewarded primarily for his ERA, SIERA and opponent BA last year, because there were starters with better FIP ERAs and fWARs than his.
Defense: in 3-4 of Cole’s starts IKF was rewarded with hits for the opponent, when he botched routine plays that blew up innings.
There’s a good 12-16 runs that should have been unearned for Cole, but I’m not an official scorer.
Even looking at xERA, he was significantly less great than Eovaldi and Cole last season.
I sure wouldn’t mind seeing a deGrom, Cole, Cortez, Sevy rotation next year. I think Cole needs another “co-ace” or whatever people want to call it. When he was with Verlander he performed better (presumably less pressure). Obviously, he had sticky stuff too, but my point stands – deGrom makes Cole better because deGrom is better, imho.
Respectfully disagree about deGrom. He’ll be 35 next June, and his durability is greatly in question. I’d rather let somebody else take that costly gamble.
I see that perspective for sure. I wouldn’t want long-term, but he can throw…
Also, Fink, if you look at pitchers available this offseason, who are you keying in on for the Yanks?
I’m doubtful that the Yankees do more in the pitching department than exercise their option on Severino and maybe offer a contract to Taillon unless they let Judge walk. If they do let him walk and consequently have money to spend, I suppose I’d want to add Carlos Rodon. He has his own injury history, but he’s 4-1/2 years younger than deGrom, which ought to enable him to rebound from injuries better than a 35-year-old. If they wanted to add, but for less money, I could see Eovaldi doing well back in pinstripes if his health held up. No fears of him wilting under the NYC spotlight.
Geez, I forgot they’re stuck with Montas. I’ll bet that means they let Taillon walk, unless they can trade Montas — but I can’t see Cashman selling low so soon after getting robbed by Billy Beane.
I can see them going in-house, giving a rotation spot to someone like Schmidt out of spring training, along with German:
Cole
Cortes
Severino
German/Schmidt
Montas
At present, I don’t think they’ll add anyone significant to the rotation from the free agent class.
How far Montas had fallen… I think he’ll bounce back after resting his bummed shoulder. If he’s better than Monty and performs like a #3 next season, the rotation is in good shape. I’d like to see Cashman pull another ninja move from Japan with some under-the-radar pitcher.
Lol, I completely spaced on Montas too! And, Rodon would be a great get as long as it’s a reasonable deal. I don’t think he should be paid as if he were going to repeat this year’s performance. Just my two cents. But, yeah, he’s a very viable option & a LH pitcher, which we need. Good call on those. I can’t believe I forgot about Montas already….haha!
Maybe we just wanted to forget Montas.
Clipper , deGrom would look pretty sweet in that rotation…but I was having delusions of grandeur that maybe Dipoto could pry Burnes or Woodruff from Milwaukee this off-season to augment Seattle’s rotation. I could definitely picture a Burnes or Woodruff in New York as well, that would be sweet. It’s all about your starting staff. Look at Nola and Wheeler…it’s the reason Phillies are advancing on , and the Cardinals are booking their tee times. The fact that the Cards thought they could go anywhere with that paltry rotation just left me flummoxed. Quintana to start Game One??? That’s embarrassing.
I agree completely. And Seattle? With adding one of those guys with Castillo? Downright scary.
I’m a big fan of Aaron Nola and he looked great in his game. I think the Phillies take their $16MM club option on him in ‘23, much to my dismay. But, yeah, the Cards, man. They found gold in Quintana, but didn’t really have anyone around him. Cards are another talented team and I’m surprised the Phillies took them to the woodshed like they did; but, you’re right……starting pitching.
Woodruff & Burnes are really, really desirable too. I guess the question is: Who will actually be available via trade or FA next year? I could certainly see MKE trading one of those guys next season as they enter advanced arb seasons. They’re going to be expensive, and rightfully so.
Yankees need to bring talented pitching up or acquire at least one…. They can’t keep sending the same starting rotation into the postseason and expecting a different result. Ugh, Cole – he makes my nerves go all haywire…
Send cole back to the Astros you can have any pitcher not named Verlander Valdez McCullers or brown
Hey yank… where do you think the Yankees are going to come up with the money to pay DeGrom?
Seriously I think some fans are delusional, sign DeGrom (if he opts out), re-sign Judge and Rizzo… I’m not mathematician, but the Yankees were 30 million over the luxury tax with roughly 60 million coming off the books… arbitration raises will cut into that 30 million a bit, Judge will get a 37 million AAV, Rizzo will want a longer contract, maybe will take a little less so let’s estimate a 15 million AAV, and you want to sign DeGrom which will be on the low end 35 million per? Yankees really going to spend 300 million under Hal? Seems highly unlikely. Trading Torres would help some but trading DJ is a pipe dream with his contract.
Drasco: I understand what you’re saying, but remember, that’s only for one year. Season after next a bunch of money drops too.
Also, I’m not overly confident the Yankees are re-signing Judge. If they do, I agree, the money will be much, much leaner, and they won’t go anywhere near a top SP. So, my deGrom proposition was more of a “what if” than an actual presumption.
After many years of Cashman, I fully expect a whole lot of nothing after Rizzo (maybe), Tallion (maybe), & an effort to sign Judge. But, with Cabrera & Peraza, there’s really no need. Plus, as I wrote above, I mistakenly forgot about Montas already.
Definitey unlikely, but totally feasible if they prioritized winning.
Cole’s a 200ip 1-2, and Cortes and Sevy are 150ip 2-3’s (I’d say that’s higher than 50th ptile projection for Nestor and Sevy next season). If we can get a shoulder healthy Montas into the solid 3 conversation and add a 1-2 guy in free agency, we could match up with Houston in a series.
Everyone still has sticky stuff. The MLB is as of right now completely fine with that
Let’s assume we have to burn Cole twice. That means if we make it to the next round we would get Cortes and Sevy for two games each possibly. If we have to burn Cole for two times though a line up, I am less threatened by wasting him Cleveland than I am against Houston
That’s a really good point, Jfoody. I hadn’t thought of the future implications of Cole starting the DS v the CS. Both Houston & Seattle scare me a lot more than the Guardians lineup does.
Fink: the sky is falling.
Me: wait and see. But, go Guardians.
The hitters need to show up, re: Mets.
Maybe they need a “bat stretcher”, re: the Moth. themoth.org/stories/my-first-day-at-the-yankees
Hey Hayzee, how’s your recovery going? Just checking in on you, man.
Walking like a champ. Running is still a long way off. PT every week until November. And 30 minutes of exercises every morning. It’s a long slow process but I’m definitely making progress. Two new hips have definitely been a life changer. But everyone wants to know if I’m going to run again. I’m cautiously optimistic.
Thankfully these guys look ready to return. We desperately need Holmes & Wandy in the ‘pen. The Guardians demonstrated they’re no joke, particularly with their pitching staff, who have been performing admirably. That’s a big concern since our Yanks seem to be feast or famine….
Cole has to keep the ball in the park though. Giving up HRs, especially multi-run HRs, in the postseason is a death knell for the Yankees more often than not. Cole has to pitch smarter, not just try to overpower everyone. Ramirez is the guy to circle, although as we saw in the Rays game there are other dangerous hitters too (Hello, Oscar Gonzales!).
I am really interested to see the Seattle/Astros game too. Thats going to be a battle.
If the Yankees crap out, as I expect they will, I’ll be rooting for the M’s to finally get their rings.
Cole is going to get the loss unless relief pitching saves the game
I think it’s key that they can slot Carpenter back in the lineup. And it appears Gleyber has kicked it up a notch, which is vital. LaMahieu needs to show up though. Then that lineup will be nice and lengthened. Any word on getting Benitendi back? It was a shame he tweaked himself just as he was getting hot.
Beni might be back later on if the Yankees make it deep enough into the playoffs, but, honestly, I’d rather have Oswaldo Cabrera out there.
Oswaldo’s been hotter than fish grease, too.
Gotta a Carpenter back in the House that Ruth built and just in the nick of time. Unfazed by the Bronx mystic, he’ll be good to go!
Dolt. Meant “Bronx mystique”.
The Yankees should be thanking Houston for having the best record in the AL. They get to face Cleveland in a best of 5 instead of Seattle. Seattle would have given them a real run for their money and probably would beat them in all honesty the way they are playing now. Cleveland’s only hope is more masterful starting pitching as Cleveland cannot outslug NY in a game like Seattle could.
Cleveland also has a better bullpen. In fact, since the All-Star break, theirs is the best bullpen in baseball.
Their offense has scored only three fewer runs in the second half than the Yankees, and their team batting average in the second half was sixth in the majors; the Yankees’ team batting average ranked 21st since the break. All the Guardians need to do is not pitch to Judge, who has vastly more runs and RBI since the break than any other Yankee.
Cleveland is the last team I would want to face right now.
Beltran’s trash cans will be ready to help the yankees cheat more.
Your troll is weak.
Yet if he said Houston instead of Yankees everyone would have loved it
You are not very good at the troll. Go back to school
It’s a shame James Gandolfini did not live long enough to play Joba Chamberlain’s life story in the moving pictures.
Astros over the Mariners. Both are great teams. Both have amazing starting pitching and solid pens. Both have huge power. It’ll be a close series.
Guardians over the Yankees. Yankees are huge favorites and should win. Both have very good starters with Yankees having the advantage. I think the Guardians pen might be better with the Chapman thing and Holmes fading down the stretch. Yankee offense is a huge advantage… tons of power all through the lineup.
How I see the Guardians winning… Yankees will win a couple blowout games, but this is playoff baseball and there will be some low scoring games. Those games the Guardians have a huge advantage with their strong pen and a lineup that can manufacture a run. They have some great OBP guys and 5 guys with 18+ steals. If they work the starters, make them throw lots of pitches. Get to the pen. Make them work the count. Get on base. Cause some stress on the pitchers. Yankees pen could be burned out by game 3.
How I see the Yankees winning. Great pitching from the starters. Rizzo, Judge, Stanton, Torres all hitting and the starters cruise through the games with only a couple appearances from their pen who have easy stress free outings.
Both should be great series and I am looking forward to watching.
I do think the Yankees will take the series but Cole will crumble and Boone will have to rely on a lot of relief pitching the first game
Now the question of if it’s Gonzalez or Peraza for the last bench spot.
I hope Peraza. Cabrera is Gonzales with offense….and probably better D too. Peraza was starting to heat up a bit at the plate and is a true MIFer. Get him the reps off the bench (or in place of IKF if we really want to get this thing moving ).
Can the Yankees really overcome all their injuries and IKF, Hicks, and Marwin?
If they’re going with Cole in game 1, that signals veterans will play and take ABs/plays away from Cabrera and Peraza who have much higher upside.
As simple as it sounds, any pitcher who is around the plate a lot, with great control, gives up a lot of home runs. When you throw strikes, that what gets hit hardest and furthest. The key is not to allow crooked number homers. The top 20 HOME RUNS ALLOWED of all time list, shows 13 Hall Of Famers..Allowing lots of home runs only means you throw strikes, allowing solo homers defers the damage. George Brett hit 3 off of Catfish Hunter in a playoff game (all solo) and the Yanks won that game.
That’s a fair point . . . to a point. But if you check the number of years those guys pitched, it’s perhaps not surprising that the shortest of their careers lasted 18 years. Really good players tend to stick around longer. They had a lot of years to accumulate gopher balls. In fact, if you look at leaders in innings pitched, you’ll see a lot of the same guys.
On the other hand, if you look at the career worsts in HR/9, you won’t find any of them near the top of the list:
fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&…
I’m a Yankee fan, so naturally I hope Cole is lights-out in this postseason. But the only years he eliminated the high HR/9 in the postseason were his years with the Astros, and we know why his spin rate was so high then. His overall postseason HR/9 is an ugly 1.57, even with those two postseasons with Houston factored in.
I hope he’s good — but I’m worried, and I think with some reason.
It’s notable that some of the would-be odds-makers writing about the Division Series matchups keep talking about the competing teams’ full-season numbers. But the Yankees aren’t the same team that they were in the first half. Their pitching, particularly, looks great if you look at the entire season — third rank in ERA — but they drop to 9th rank in the second half and 10th in September. Some of these writers seem to ignore the impact of injuries and the trade deadline moves.
I don’t bet on baseball anyway because I’ve seen enough of it to know that it tends not to follow the script. But anyone who puts big money on a team based that team’s full-season stats — well, good luck to you, guy.
Weather forecasts might be about as reliable as some postseason prognostications, but if the current New York City forecast holds, skipping Wednesday will have the teams sitting during a rain-free day and resuming play on what looks to be a Thursday washout (88% chance of rain at gametime).