The Reds have reached out to free-agent right-hander Johnny Cueto about a potential reunion for the 2023 season, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. Cueto was also linked to the Blue Jays earlier this week.
Cueto, 37 in February, enjoyed a resurgent 2022 season with the White Sox, making his highest number of starts (24) since 2017 and logging the most innings he’s thrown in a season (158 1/3) since 2016. Signed to a minor league deal just prior to Opening Day 2022, Cueto began the season ramping up in Triple-A and ultimately totaled 174 innings between that minor league tune-up and a successful run with the ChiSox that saw him log a 3.35 ERA.
Granted, Cueto’s 15.7% strikeout rate was one of the lowest in MLB, ranking 130th among the 140 pitchers who tossed at least 100 inning. However, Cueto’s 5.1% walk rate ranked 22nd in that same set of pitchers, and he was also comfortably in the top half of the league in terms of limiting hard contact; Statcast ranked his average exit velocity in the 69th percentile of MLB pitchers and his hard-hit rate in the 67th percentile. Despite pitching his home games at the hitter-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field, Cueto averaged just 0.85 homers per nine frames. It’s true that he posted better results and allowed fewer homers on the road (2.84 ERA, 0.59 HR/9) than at home (3.83 ERA, 1.09 HR/9), but Cueto was a generally effective pitcher in both settings.
That ability to limit home runs, if the Reds feel he can sustain it moving forward, ought to hold appeal to Cincinnati brass. Great American Ball Park, the Reds’ home stadium, has been far and away the most homer-friendly stadium in all of MLB over the past three seasons, per Statcast’s park factors, producing long balls at 50% greater than a league-average rate. Guaranteed Rate Field, Cueto’s aforementioned home environs as a member of the White Sox, ranks a distant second.
Whether Cueto or another veteran innings eater, the Reds could quite clearly use some stability in a rotation that’ll be composed entirely of unproven MLB starters. Prospects Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft all made their big league debuts in 2022 and appear ticketed for rotation jobs in 2023, and all three held their own.
Greene, a former No. 2 overall draft pick and one of the game’s consensus top prospects heading into the season, logged a 4.44 ERA in 125 2/3 frames while fanning 30.9% of opponents against a 9% walk rate. Home runs were an issue (1.72 HR/9), but he’s a clearly exciting arm around which to build. Similar things can be said about Lodolo, another top-tier prospect who tossed 103 1/3 innings of 3.66 ERA ball with a 29.7% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate. He missed nearly three months with a back injury but was impressive when healthy. Ashcraft didn’t carry the same fanfare on national prospect rankings but was regarded as one of the organization’s better arms and managed 105 innings of 4.89 ERA ball, relying more heavily on plus ground-ball (54.5%) and walk (6.5%) rates than on missing bats (15.3% strikeout rate).
Beyond that solid young trio, options are sparse. Longtime Yankees reliever Luis Cessa appears ticketed for a starting gig with the Reds, who acquired him at the 2021 trade deadline. Cessa moved from the bullpen to the rotation late in 2022 and pitched to a 3.77 ERA with a 18.8% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate, 43% grounder rate and 1.67 HR/9 in 43 innings in that role.
Looking further down the list, righties Justin Dunn and Connor Overton are potential rotation options, while prospects Brandon Williamson and Levi Stoudt could get a look in next year’s rotation. Each of Dunn, Williamson and Stoudt were acquired in trades with the Mariners — the former two in exchange for Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker, the latter as part of the Luis Castillo swap. Dunn missed most of 2022 with a shoulder injury and posted a 6.10 ERA when healthy, however, while Williamson walked 13.9% of his opponents and pitched to a 4.11 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A. Stoudt only reached Triple-A for his final 19 innings but posted a combined 4.70 ERA in 111 minor league frames.
The Reds currently project for a payroll of just $73MM, with much of that money earmarked for veterans Joey Votto and Mike Moustakas in the final seasons of their respective multi-year contracts. There ought to be ample space to add a veteran in the Cueto mold, but Cincinnati hasn’t spent more than $7.5MM on any free agent since signing Nick Castellanos in Jan. 2020 and it remains to be seen just how much they’ll be willing to commit to free agents this winter. Thus far, catcher Luke Maile’s $1.175MM deal is the Reds’ lone free-agent addition.
Yes, please! Bring back Adam Duvall also, please.
I agree, Duvall should be inexpensive and has always been perfect for GAB.
Why they are at it, sign Benintendi (Cincy native) and/or Mancini (solid player, great clubhouse guy).
If Martin Perez gets 19.65 million, this guy is worth 30-35 million. Obviously, the market is way overinflated for short-term deals and long ones have rather low AAVs. I would see a 3 year 45 million deal as being likely or a 1 year 25-30 maybe.
Cueto had a good 2022 season, but it wasn’t nearly as good as Martin’s.
Plus way older and way worse metrics
You think Cueto is getting $30 million?
I don’t think so, but he should get 50% more than whatever Pérez is getting. He doesn’t reply on double plays to get out of jams. Besides, Custodian has been good before and knows how to pitch. Pérez never did until this year.
Cueto is going to get a 1 year 6-8 million dollar deal, maybe 1 mil in incentives.
I’d take that in a heartbeat. I’d think 10-13 mil, though, given Syndergaard, Walker, and other guys’ AAVs. Just on a shorter deal
It’s easy to clown on the Reds. Really easy. But this would be a good move! I endorse!
That would be a good lead by example acquisition for their young starters. Kind of veteran someone like Greene will look back on if he becomes good & credit him partly for some wisdom and learning how he’s been able to adjust/stick around into late 30s. He was a model workhorse last year.
Good fit, and a good veteran to help mentor the young guys. When he was a Red he had a good workout and pregame routines that I think younger pitchers can learn from. Not to mention he is the type of pitcher to usually have a quality start in his past. Don’t think he will be in the Reds price range however.
Cueto is a fun and unique player to watch. Maybe he can teach some hesitation moves to the young guys.
Shimmy shimmy yah shimmy yah shimmy yeah
Wonder how much of that will go away with the pitch clock.
The Reds need to get this done and sign Cueto before the holidays. One year, with an option for the second year. $8M + Incentives. They should have signed him to a long-term deal years ago, instead of Homer Bailey.
I said this at the time as well. Thought they picked the wrong guy.
is Homer still pitching? what was his last season stats that he appeared in?
He ended up going to the Dodgers and I think he got a copy of the home game after that.
He was something like 1-14 with a six plus ERA his last year with the Reds. I want to say that was 2018. His last three seasons were pretty awful and injury riddled.
Hot dang! I was just saying in another thread earlier today they needed to do this. (I hope that’s not the source of his rumor lol)
Get it done!
He would be a great asset for mentoring the 3 young starters !!!!
I want the royals to do this
Will either Greene or Lodolo adapt the windup wiggle from him?
Can’t imagine Cincinnati outbidding Toronto and the rest of the market for Cueto. But I guess crazier things have happened.
Are you serious? They have the lowest payroll they’ve ever had since Castillini has owned the team. If there is one thing they have is room to add FA’s. Will they actually want to spend any of it, that’s another question. Cueto is unfortunately around the max of what I expect the Reds to spend on FA’s in 23. They’ll sign 1 or 2 guys in the 7M – 11M range and a couple in the 2M – 4M range. It’s a real kick in the ass for the fans.
I think we’re both saying the same thing. Obviously they can afford to sign Cueto. Just doubt they’d be willing to.
Ok, your take makes sense with that line of thinking. I read it differently, there is a type of commenter that acts as if FA’s should only go to bigger market teams. We are in agreement that the Reds are choosing to be cheep right now.
Johnny Cueto gets a choice in the matter. Would you rather play for the Reds or Blue Jays? I just don’t see the Reds outbidding anyone for his services. It would be nice though.
I think you answered you’re own question
Yes he’s absolutely serious cause the reds aren’t willing to throw money at free agents currently
anythings bettervthan the 12 million Minor trade..
Cueto and Duvall but Michael Brantley would be huge for this team. He hits for average. Top of the lineup. He could be traded at the deadline and should get a decent return.
I understand the trip down memory lane but is it wise to spend 8-10M on an old guy who won’t be here when we’re relevant?
I think he’s worth a try. Justin Verlander is still pitching and he’s 40. I would give Cueto a 2 year contract with an option for a third year.
I understand the trip down memory lane but we are going to be last in the central with or without Cueto. Shouldn’t that 8-10M be spent on something better?
Why spend millions on a washed up player? I’d rather watch Overton, Dunn, Williamson and Stoudt to see what they’ve got. Reds are going to stink either way.
Overton and Dunn are the only two major league ready and they can’t stay healthy. So I don’t blame them for looking for a veteran pitcher to help guide the young studs.
After all, the best teams have both youth and experience.
The Reds lost a lot of one or two run games last year, mostly because of a stinky bullpen. I would say if they beefed up that aspect, they would win more games and get close to .500 at least. I think more butts in seats would be preferable to the management. A more entertaining team would do that.
I think this would be a nice gesture to the fans. I also would be really interested in the advice that he could give to the young starters like Lodolo, Greene and Ashcraft.
So are they gonna do this or what?
Do something…anything even.
An $80 million projected payroll is pathetic.
You don’t live in Pittsburgh, this is Cincinnati!