The Padres release a statement from chairman Peter Seidler this morning, seemingly offering a vote of confidence for president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and manager Bob Melvin, though neither was mentioned by name.
“We entered 2023 with expectations that we would build on last year’s NLCS appearance and contend for a World Series Championship. We fell short of that goal,” the statement reads, “The Padres organization will learn from this season and emerge in 2024 with the pieces in place to compete for San Diego’s first World Series title. Our current leadership team has my full support, and I have asked them to perform a thorough assessment of our organization, beginning today. We will make the changes necessary to play championship-caliber baseball for our extraordinary fans in 2024.”
The statement largely tracks with previous reporting, which indicated not only Seidler’s preference to retain both Melvin and Preller in 2024, but also that the club would be undergoing an internal review. Importantly, despite the seeming vote of confidence for the duo, the statement does not guarantee their return for the 2024 season, instead noting that the club plans to “make the changes necessary” to return to the postseason next year. After all, reports of philosophical differences that lead to the personal relationship between the Padres’ manager and GM fraying are well documented. Melvin is under contract through the end of the 2024 season, while Preller is signed through the end of the 2026 season.
Whoever is at the helm of the Padres next season, they’ll have a difficult task set before them as they look to improve the club’s roster following an 82-80 season. Shutdown closer Josh Hader and NL Cy Young award candidate Blake Snell are both poised to depart the club for free agency this offseason, and the club is reportedly looking to trim payroll down to $200MM for next season. While RosterResource indicates the club’s payroll in 2024 stands at just over $128MM at this point, that figure doesn’t include arbitration-level contracts for players like Juan Soto, Scott Barlow, and Trent Grisham, among others.
Those arbitration-level contracts could approach $50MM or more this offseason, with Soto alone expected to get a significant raise on his $23MM salary in 2023. That leaves the club with minimal space to take on additional financial commitments despite significant holes to fill in the rotation and bullpen, not to mention the need to deepen a position player group that suffered from an extremely thin bench throughout the season.
Under the new playoff format, deeper depth and payroll flexibility beats a few superstars at the top almost every time.
This post is what I would do, not what I think they’ll do.
Trade Soto for two top prospects. They will get 50% of what they gave up.
Use the salary savings from losing Soto, Snell, Hader and Grisham to sign two solid but not elite starting pitchers to join Darvish and Musgrove. Jordan Montgomery and Sonny Gray might take three to four year deals. Hopefully also retain either Wacha or Lugo.
So the same team for the most part except Monty for snell, no hader, no Soto.
That doesn’t sound like a better team to me.
Padres will keep Soto and still add Monty types and be able to run it back again.
My position is premised on their comments about scaling back the payroll whereas your comments are based on the idea of maintaining the same payroll, apples and oranges
The only reason to trade for a guy is to use him or trade him for more than you gave up. Why on Earth would the Padres trade Soto for 50% of what they gave up without winning a championship? What sense does that make? LOL
Why would a team part with Soto for only 50% of their initial investment two years later? Desperation, you might say. It’s akin to acquiring a high-end sports car beyond your means and now needing to offload it, even at a loss, to salvage what you can before it depreciates further. In the pressure to cut losses can lead to some intriguing, if not always advisable, trade moves.
It’s not as implausible as it sounds. If you follow closely, you’ll realize they’re actually reducing payroll, not increasing it. Lol
Padres don’t need to offload Soto
Why would a team part with Soto for only 50% of their initial investment two years later?
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Because they traded for 2 years, 2 months of a player, and only have have one year left.
I seriously doubt that they would trade him, but the idea that one year of Soto is worth 50% of 2.2 years of Soto, is pretty intuitive.
Like I said. The only reasons to trade for a guy are to flip him for more later on or use hum. So if they can only get 50% of what they gave up for Soto there’s only one option left.
Beats them to the playoffs maybe but those teams don’t win it all.
What was the last team without stars to win it all.
Astros have stars, braves have stars, dodgers have stars, when the Red Sox were winning they had stars. Nationals had stars.
Also almost every year the World Series is won by a high payroll team.
Removing Tatis and Machado from the clubhouse would improve team chemistry immensely. Now, whether they are smart enough to get rid of dysfunctional characters is another story.
But. But. But. Generational talent!!
But what about all that ‘generational talent’?
You aren’t in the clubhouse and have no idea what you are talking about. Machado is going in for elbow surgery and Tatis put together a nice year after the suspension and broken hand
Neither are you. Some things you don’t have to be in the clubhouse to see, but rather are real apparent from what you see on the field and in the dugout.
LOL
Who really believes this Reds fan is watching the Padres games? Not me.
Who believes this Reds fan watches Padres games? Not me.
TobttR
“Some things you don’t have to be in the clubhouse to see, but rather are real apparent from what you see on the field and in the dugout.”
Yeah. Mostly the stuff that you make up
If you have paid attention, all this has been out there for some time, but keep on being contrary concerning what you don’t want to hear or see. Reading, and listening for that matter, is a skill, of course.
Making up stuff is making up stuff
TobttR
“is a skill, of course.”
As is being able to discern between what you know, and what you THINK YOU know
So you choose not to believe all the reports of the same over the years? Interesting.
Some people don’t want to believe anything that doesn’t fit their own little narrative.
One cranky reporter is your lone source of “all the reports”. Then there are the actual words spoken by the actual players that confirm a great clubhouse. Why chose to ignore those?
TobttR
Some people believe everything they read. Especially when it agrees with their narrative and biases
One apparently you don’t have.
Tatis seemed to get along with his teammates ok in 2023. Immature yes, steroid user, yes, but bad teammate, not the case except when he is out for the season due to a careless injury
Yeah, then they can have a team that still sucks but at least everyone is buddy buddy!
lol
Sounds like someone wants Tatis and Machado on their team ; )
Lots of teams would take the Tatis contract only a couple would pay that much to Machado at his age
As a season ticket member I have been to over 60 games this year home and away. To say this comment has no clue about anything having to do with the Padres would be an understatement.
The Padres have season ticket members? Or tools?
You should probably remove diving and Theo from your user name.
There are like 29 other teams that would gladly have talents like Tatis and Machado. The reason the Padres did not make the playoffs is the starting pitching did not perform at the same level other than Snell and they were bad in close games. I think a team like this needs a more loose and motivational manager like a Ron Washington same with the Mets. But the Padres had such a great run differential it’s almost unexplainable as to why they could not make the playoffs while the Marlins and D-Backs did. I think if they get the right manager this team makes the playoffs and can contend for the world series.
Braves you are correct with the exception of believing the SP didn’t perform well except for Snell. Yu had a down year due to injury but Musgrove (limited starts due to injury), Wacha and Lugo and Martinez (when he started) were all at levels that most teams would have loved to have had.
Check the Padres hits with RISP (at least pre 9/1) where they were historically one of the worst teams ever in the history of the game.
They lost a game at the end of the year they matter d 2-1 by going 1/17 with RISP.
Wasn’t the SP but situational hitting that cost them 15-20 games and a WC spot.
In the end, it is what it is. Good luck to your Braves.
Yeah hard to blame the starting pitchers as the problem considering the teams SP ERA of 3.69 was the BEST in all of baseball. By fWAR they were 4th in baseball. They consistently went deep easily having the most quality starts in the game.
I like Melvin’s comment that it was kind of ironic the team won a one run game in extra innings to end the season.
Crazy to think how good the staff could have been with more from Musgrove and Darvish. Wacha and Lugo ended up being about as good as you could have asked for from the back of your rotation.
Yep and thanks for looking up the stats.
I am hoping for wacha to return on a 3/39 and Lugo for a 2/20 type deals. Joe and Yu give us 33
Starts at career averages and pitching can be strong again next year.
Snell will require too much investment for the best 2nd 1/2 pitcher in baseball.
Yeah there aren’t any big stats to explain away the losses. Rather, the issue was the timing of everything. If clutch was a stat the Padres were dead last this year, mostly in hitting but also in pitching.
Wacha’s ok but I hate when he loses his command over the plate. Then it’s wacha, wacha, wacha.
There are like 29 other teams that would gladly have talents like Tatis and Machado.
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I’d bet real money that not a single team is interested in paying $34M to Machado until 2033.
I wonder what would have happened with Machado if no extension was signed.
Does he still opt out of the 5/150m? How big of a deal would even be out there for him with a looming elbow surgery?
That’s all on Seidler, it sure seems like he was the one that caved in to Machado’s plans of opting out at seasons end.
With the elbow, I doubt he opts out. But I’m not sure if anyone expected an operation. But paying him (and X & Darvish) until age 39 seems excessive).
Suppose SD offered Machado, say $300M/10, does Machado opt out? It seems doubtful to me.
With the kind of season he had? Heck no. The Padres and Machado were playing a game chicken and Padres lost. Had they known that Machado was going to put up a dud of a season of course they would not have extended him to prevent him from opting out.
Then its a good thing he is making $31.82 million AAV.
Good for Manny. Not so good for the Padres. Not like you can walk back the contract. That’s also a fake AAV by stretching contract over 11 seasons. When Manny is 40, they’ll be paying him $40mm.
He probably still opts out but he wouldn’t beat his current contract. Padres probably tag him with the qualifying offer and then bring him back for a bit more than he opted out of.
29 other teams may gladly have talents like those guys but not all can afford season ticket members
Padres starting pitching was #1 in MLB in ERA, #6 in FIp and #4 in WAR.
fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg…
Starting pitching was not an issue for the Padres. I WISH the Angels pitching had been anywhere close to that good.
Mean Tatis had a pretty decent year especially defensively, and Machado sounds hurt and we’ll play better next year. This team was just unlucky horrible record in one run games and extra innings, win a few of those and they’d be in the playoffs and a scary team at that but we will see what happens next year.
No one would take that post-steroid Tatis contract.
I disagree. It is correct to say that no team would offer a lot to acquire that contract, but given the chance to assume the Tatis contract for nothing in exchange, I think there would be more than half a dozen takers
Tatis is dumpable. Machado is not. Horrible contract.
Tatis contract at $26 mil per year might be the biggest steal in mlb
I don’t think there is any team in baseball that would NOT take the Tatis contract. Kid missed more than a year after having surgery on both his shoulder and his wrist and still put up a 5.5 WAR.
All 29 other teams would.
11/317MM.
Tons of Teams will take it for sure. But he’s dealt with a bunch of injuries and he’s 24. I don’t know how that guy holds up into his 30’s. Long way off to worry about that but you certainly aren’t getting a haul back for assuming that contract.
I’m there are some cheap teams like the A’s that surely would not. My guess is that 6-20 teams would be interested
So many clueless takes on Tatis & Machado. Unbelievable. Those two are not the problem. My god; Tatis is a stud & will continue to get even better. Machado will bounce back from these injuries and return to being the reliable elder statesman who plays his a$$ off.
Youth. hunger and desire. Pitching pitching and more pitching Go get them Peter!
Sounds like a Teutonic industrial goth beat by the likes of Nitzer Ebb or Einstenheizen Neubauten
IMO, that’s about right. I might have wanted to see Preller’s plan for replacing Snell, Wacha, Lugo & Hader, and the DH. And maybe 1B and maybe CF. But they also shouldn’t disregard the Py W/L But they aren’t that far away.
The biggest issue this year might be that they didn’t add at the deadline. They were 5 games out of the WC, and their Py wining % was 62 points better than the team(s) they were chasing.
Barlow,Choi, Hill,Cooper.
The padres did add at the deadline. Or are you trying to argue they didn’t sell more of the farm to win now?
JSC Cubbs
Barlow,Choi, Hill,Cooper. The padres did add at the deadline. Or are you trying to argue they didn’t sell more of the farm to win now?
================================
Those four combined for a -1.5 bWAR. Or was that a rhetorical question? You don’t pay the price they did for Soto, and not go the extra mile to add some more talent. At the trade deadline, Soto’s shelf-life was 1 year and two months.
Miami traded for Bell, Robertson, and Burger. The Cubs traded for Candelario. I didn’t think the trades were bad for the Padres, but their farm, they could’ve easily have done more.
Their deadline additions were terrible. They are also too veteran heavy. Make some moves for some young talent
Barlow is fine, and an option for next year. Cooper was a nice addition filled in well at 1B. Choi was a bit of a reach, but I see the thinking of maybe he can be real good coming off injury. Hill was a starter, and a rubber arm, and cost no player or prospect capital.
Who were they supposed to trade for younger players? If your answer is snell or Hader, well you would just be complaining now about how they sold at the deadline.
We all want them to get something for nothing, and they got the best available for near nothing. It also did improve the club.
Cooper and Barlow did help padres get as close as they did.
Deadline bench additions weren’t the problem, January bench additions were.
“Hill was a starter, and a rubber arm, and cost no player or prospect capital.”
Jackson Wolf: “Am I a joke to you?”
Good point made well Harambe.
Jackson Wolf doesn’t have a major league heater but he would’ve been a worthwhile spot starter for a year or 2.
@Vegas
As a London based A’s fan (who attended 2 games in SD this late summer) and is admittedly clueless, it seems to me that they’ve spent themselves into a position where they can’t improve in free agency. Soto, Machado, Tatis, Bogaerts, are all great/good players, but after @$100 million or those four, where can they squeeze roughly the same money on another 20 guys? Add the loss of Hader, Wacha & Lugo, and SD remind me of the Angels. Top heavy with a very soft underbelly.
They’re losing Snell in FA, Musgrove will cost another $20 million. Whilst I find Preller a meddlesome pratt & the sort of line manager I would want to force face first into a cement mixer, I have to admire the almost immediate recovery of the farm.
Thing is that this farm recovery won’t be ready to replace these 4 guys above, regardless of how much optimism there is in their farm.
And this really peeves me off because I expected SD to have a real concerted run over a number of seasons at the Dodgers and improve the competition in the NL East.
And if I’m peeved, I can only imagine how peeved SD fans are. With apologies for the Monday diatribe….
Peter in London
They haven’t lost Wacha yet – they have the options and some leverage to work out a 3/39 type deal so fingers crossed there.
Lugo the same – only team they would commit to letting him start. At his age, a 2/20 might bring him back affordably.
Martinez – his starter stats (9 games) were really good and under team control.
Martinez – his starter stats (9 games) were really good and under team control.
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The SD option is at $16M per. These lesser pieces are going to cost a fair amount when put together. Adding those guy in, they are at maybe $265M, without Hader or Snell, or Lee if they decide to go that way.
Thanks @Longtimecoming – didn’t realise all of that…
Joe – I think if they can keep Lugo and Wacha similar to my suggested estimates, they let Martinez walk (or renegotiate) as opposed to exercising his option.
I only raised him because if they lost 1 or the both, they can still have Martinez for an #4 SP and likely be in line to fill needs – Yamamoto for a 2-3 for example.
I don’t see all 3 being back but 2 of the 3 very possible.
they had young talent and traded it all away for veterans and then signed more – they did the same thing before they had to tear it all down and rebuild last time too
All that “young talent” and where are they now? Name the ones they helped their teams to the playoffs?
Name the ones they made the all star game since being traded?
Not many and not needle movers.
A few they are so young we just don’t know yet, for sure with a lot of upside (Soto and Bell Trade) but you have to trade quality for quality.
So many fans think that a trade must be “won” to be a good trade. The point of a trade is to improve your team right now and trading prospects (aka suspects) for guys performing at the mlb level (Bell was a top 10 bat at time of trade) is the name of the game.
Every teams does it on some level when the circus all for it.
Must not have looked that hard then. Plenty of guys Preller has traded have made the All Star game and helped their new teams to the playoffs.
I don’t fault Preller as much for trading away prospects. I agree with his thinking that most prospects don’t come close to meeting expectations, so why not use them as trade capital. He’s gone a bit too far off that route though. Also, developing players is a key source of cheap talent to blend with more expensive talent. You can’t build a team like the Padres are building (mostly expensive FAs/trades). It’s not sustainable. What is more egregious to me is the contracts that he has been handing out and on top of that lengthening contracts and paying less early and more in outer years (Machado). Playing a dangerous game and at some point the Padres will pay dearly for that. Of course he won’t be around when it hits the fan, and perhaps neither will Seidler. Machado plus Bogaerts plus Cronenworth is what they call strike 1, strike 2 and strike 3, you’re out.
“The point of a trade is to improve your team right now..”
Yes Longtimecoming;
And that’s why the Padres have a sky high payroll and don’t contend.
Winning teams make the players they have under contract better. Under Preller the Padres ae incapable of doing that- no matter who the manager is.
Winning MLB teams need around 35 players a year on their ML and high minor league rosters that can play for the parent team and help be a part of them winning games. The Padres trade away guys that may not become stars, but they help their new teams win.
We’ll, they were just a ground ball away from WS last year so not sure they haven’t contended
And that’s why the Padres have a sky high payroll and don’t contend.
==============================
It’s the same thing I said about the Mets. Once you’re spending gets up to $300M, then you have enough for 14 $20M players, plus fringes, etc. At that point, the minor leaguers are far less important.
They added at the deadline.
“I believe in you! Now can I get $200 million back, please?!”
#keepthefaith
Trade Soto. Not worth the pay grade and can refill emptied prospect list. +$25m
Let Hader Walk. Comp pick +$15m+
Non-tender Nola +$2.5m
Non-tender Grisham +$4.0m
Non-tender Barlow +1m (Pads didn’t pay most of that bill)
-Snell $16.6m
-Pomeranz $10m
If they trade Soto there’s a lot of payroll wiggle room to get better and they get prospects
How can Soto refill the emptied prospect list when he cost them Abrams, Gore and Wood?????????
Oh. And they’re not making the 2024 team better by trading Soto. You can completely forget about that BS.
I think in the long run it would behoove them to trade Soto, yeah he’s a generational talent but if extension talks aren’t on the table this offseason, there is no need to keep him. Get something back in return, and save on payroll.
If Preller cared about “getting something back in return” for Soto why did he trade for him in the first place HUH? HUH? HUH?
As a Nats fan I can speak to how heavily trading Soto can restock a farm system. I was one of the few Nats fans that was happy they pulled the trigger. Soto wasn’t going to help them these final two years of control, and the players they got in return helped this year’s club far outperform expectations while several haven’t even debuted yet. That being said, when the Nats traded Soto he had 2.5 years of control left. Now he only has one.
No point unless they get Abrams, Gore, Wood, Barrels and Susana back.
Yeah and their Farm is pretty loaded for real. Padres May be best team in baseball when it comes to refilling minors and they usually don’t do that by trading away super stars. When everyone wants to consider canning Preller – they never consider this.
If Soto was just a little more consistent- he’d be the NL MVP or atleast top 3 candidate. He had a slow start with another slow month in there yet his season stat line is outstanding. Might as well keep him for 40 mil. And snell too. Go way over the cap again. Why not ?
Ain’t happening. They didn’t invest this much in the team to walk away now. If they let all those guys go, they’d still be expensive, and maybe not even .500. That’s 16 bWAR you’re talking about.
You can’t walk away now. They’ve tied up too much money into future payroll. I doubt Seidler will eat cash like Steve Cohen. They’ve got to go for it next year.
Fine, but they can’t spend much more money…if any. They’re up against MLB by-laws, and the penalties are harsh.
In addition to letting their FA’s go, I expect them to trade at least one of their so-called stars and will have to eat money to do it.
You can’t pull the plug completely on this team because there’s too much bad money. You can only make some shorter term adds and hope that it’s enough.
It’s probably not but I didn’t assemble this monstrosity. At this point, you can’t say tear it down to the studs. Too many immovables deals tied up for far too long.
Depends, if they trade someone like Soto they can probably do the send a prospect get a prospect swap. I don’t think you can meet much for him unless he expresses interest in an extension and it sure seems like he is going to want to test free agency
Soto has plenty of trade value even if he publicly says he’s going to free agency.
You’re going to get something comparable to the Mookie Betts deal. 2 top 100 guys or 1 + a former top prospect who is a young ML’er.
That’s less than they sent away. (Obviously) but that’s what they can recoup. Don’t think that it makes any sense to do that though. Preller can scout amateurs with the best of them. The team is locked into a position to compete now. Unless you want to go Steve Cohen style and start eating 10’s(closer to 100 on 2 of these) of millions of dollars on multiple contracts and tear it down.
Can’t see that happening.
Brian I think your estimate is right on for Soto just remember when evaluating what they gave away, the also got Bell (top 10 hitter at the time) and 1.5 years of a Soto.
There is a price to pay so the difference is that price.
I think the Yankees have a SP and an OF that might fall into those slots on the top 100 list and everyone is thinking Yankees as top target due to contract extension $$.
I’m not really seeing the trade happening unless a better than expected return appears.
Keep him at least to trade deadline to take the shot in 24 and then get all you can if you are not doing well.
Lol…. They’re not trading Soto, and forinfo, they don’t need to refill the prospect list. You realize they are now in the top 10 in most publications, including 5 top 100 players, right?
So preller and/or Melvin will be fired one month into the 2024 if the expectation isn’t met. It’s always the “doing a heckaofa job Brownie” then they are fired.
@Citizen1 – I’d be astounded if Melvin is still in situ come ST in February….
So much easier to dump the one season of Melvin for the three seasons Preller has in his pocket.
Preller is the most overrated executive in baseball.
Melvin is an above average but not elite manager.
The Pads can survive one year of a good but not great manager; it may take them many years to recover from three more years of Preller at their helm.
Yes, the dreaded Vote Of Confidence.
May as well pack their bags.
Dont want to influence the “internal review” dontcha know.
Maybe it’s just me but I don’t see BoMel back. If he is truly so at odds with Preller and he knows that he can get the SF job, he may just ask to be released or traded so he can get out.
I think he values his happiness more than anything and he can get a job if the money is what he wants.
I think he tells Seidler his honest opinion as opposed to blowing smoke to get to ST. That honest opinion is that he can’t work with Preller and get a better result.
No where in this comment is intended to be a blame or right or wrong – just my take on how BoMel will handle his side of the meeting. Seidler will have to take some action to effectuate change and he isn’t ready to fire Preller yet – again, in my opinion, so he accommodates BoMel on his exit.
Longtimecoming knows nothing.
@jimthegoat
None of us know, but, logically…
1) Seidler has worked with Preller for 10 years. Preller has 3 years on his contract. Melvin has worked for 2 years & has 1 year remaining. Who is it easier to sack?
2) Preller has “overseen” 6 managers. AGAIN, who is more likely to remain in place.
3) Melvin reached a point of autonomy at the A’s – two complete rebuilds with three consecutive play offs in between. I do think Melvin will let go lightly rather than being forced to have Matt Carpenter hitting air & clogging up his roster (as an example)…
The point is Longtimecoming never gets anything right so now that he said it you can bet your hat Melvin stays.
I agree longtime. But if BoMel stays it might indicate that his struggles with Preller were greatly exaggerated by the click-bait media.
Brew I’d say that is a fair point.
Jim goat – it’s just like I never knew ya!
Longtimecoming;
Two months ago I’d heard Melvin was out at the end of the season. All these public pronouncements by Seidler are PYA BS. He wants to make it seem as if Melvin was uncooperative and that’s why he left….not that he’s been running a screwed up operation for years and won’t change.
I believe you have a very good insight about the Giants job. Melvin is known and respected in the Bay Area. He worked for the A’s for 11 years. He’s comfortable working with stats. And of course Farhan Zaidi cut his teeth working with the A’s, and even as some sort of intern when he was attending UC Berkeley where Sandy Alderson was teaching classes while working for the A’s. It’s a comfortable fit for all.
It seems logical, but we’ll see.
Longtime – think you’re right on with this. Melvin will have a job in no time if he’s sacked. If he doesn’t like the organization structure/lack of autonomy going on under Preller and they don’t remove him, then there’s probably little keeping him in SD.
My own San Diego native opinion – the Padres need Melvin more than Melvin needs the Padres.
Their Run Differential says they could run the same team back and win the Division next year
When marrying numbers to reality, trade Soto to clear payroll, restock Starting Pitching, get a real DH and a 1B that can hit
And if they’re not trading Soto, tell him to swing the f***ing bat next year. 132 wlks and however many looking strikeouts, if you have elite bat speed, use it.
Nope. The Padres made their bed with Soto. Now they have to lay in it. No point in trading him unless they get CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore and James Wood back.
They won’t get back those guys they traded for him. They won’t get the equivalent or better. They’re more likely to extend Soto than trade him
There are only 2 reasons to trade for a guy. To use him or to flip him down the road for more than you gave up. Padres pulled off the second one quite well with Drew Pomeranz in 2016. If they can’t get the equivalent or better there’s only one thing to do.
Every Padre fan keeps arguing run differential but guess what not only was SD terrible in one-run games, but they were also not very good at two-run and three-run games, as they were combined below 0.500 in those type of games. Does anyone really care when you blow teams out and pad the run differential stats? That is the limitation of run differential. At the end of the day all games count the same and the danger of putting too much faith in run differential. The Dodgers have been great in the run differential category for years but what really bothered me in the past was their knack for blowing out opponents for the first couple of games in the series and then losing the last game because they couldn’t score two runs or more. Something to be said about consistency and winning closer games. Winning closer games is not just blind luck.
162 games is a large statistical sample, and a large plus run differential paired with mediocre won-loss record strongly implies that bad luck alone was not responsible. They struggled to move runners, were terrible in RISP, they couldn’t hit against good pitchers, RP meltdowns were surprisingly frequent no matter what BoMel did, so they were choking and Chargering regularly.
Run Differential along with pitch framing are the 2 most meaningless stats in baseball (and boy, are there ever a lot of meaningless stats!).
They’re for rotisserie league players that don’t know what a cut-off man is or does. One can use them to argue multiple positions of an issue at the same time, and sound knowledgeable and authoritative while doing so.
Py W/L is one of the most accurate stats we have. I’d make a bet that at least 20 teams will be within 5 wins of their Py W/L in 2024.
mlbdodgerfan2015….This year they were 9-23 in 1 run games, worst in baseball. Last year they were 30-17 in 1 run games, which was the BEST winning % in baseball.
All with much of the same team… I would imagine 2024 is vastly different than 2023 in that regard looking at those two extreme data points.
I blame the video person putting sad Kershaw up on the big screen after they won the first game versus the Dodgers. It was tacky and the baseball gods were having none of it.
It was tacky and the baseball gods were having none of it.
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Fair enough, but on a more practical perspective, not using Hader for a 2-inning save with a one-run lead in the 8th inning of game 5 was about as bad a move as I have ever seen in the playoffs. Worse than the Pedro move, but maybe not as bad as the Snell move.
It had been 4 days since his previous appearance, and they would have a day off before their next appearance. Papelbon had 12 appearances of 1+ innings in the RS playoffs. Mo Rivera had over 50.
I’m cracking up at the fact that his picture looks like a Sears portrait
Ha ha. I did a double take. Very middle aged man clothes store catalogue.
Tatis and Machado. Add Soto to the mix and you have a recipe for…an awful team. Chemistry matters
In one short statement Seidler showed that Acee lied in the two articles that garnered do much attention on this website.
So who do you think the Padres will add to their team to help them “to play championship-caliber baseball for our extraordinary fans in 2024” as Seidler put it.
LOL! Before Seidler even spoke, Acee was spinning in circles. I think he contradicted everything he said about three days after he said it.
I hear that even Acee is surprised by how much attention one reporter can get.
LOL, Preller heads the internal review and nothing changes.
Brilliant.
99socalfrc;
LOL
Didn’t know he was heading it up.
Left’s just say that the Padres trajectory will continue down for years. Preller is like Mark Shapiro with the Jays – give him a big budget and he can compete for, or even attain, a playoff spot some years – never going far in them…..in a league where 20% of the teams make the playoffs, and 30-40% of the teams are in some sort of rebuild, teardown, or besieged with injuries to key players.
Having a talent like Soto in his age 25 season walk year is the worst thing possible. Yikes what if he puts up a 7.5 win season??
I hope Gore stays healthy and has a nice long career. Abrams IMO was a good piece to move to go to a non competitive team to get regular playing time and grow. James Wood potential is huge, but he struck out 31.5% in 2023 after being at 21.5% in 2022, that’s obviously not the direction you want that going. Robert Hassell value has all but evaporated.
I didn’t have a problem with that package then and still don’t today.
I think there is around a 95% chance Soto is on the team to start 2024, trading him for prospects is the last thing they need to be thinking about if they want to win in 2024 and I think they do.
The Padres can bring back Soto, Wacha, Martinez, and Lugo and still maintain a payroll of about 210M.
They’d have to cut Nola, Grisham, and Tim Hill for that to add up.
Without looking at the details, that sounds impossible. They are probably at $196M even without Wacha, Martinez & Lugo. Those three won’t go for any less than maybe $35M.
They are at about 180m with Martinez at 8m
The $128mm above is not correct is it? Has Machado at $17.1mm which is not his AAV. I thought his AAV is $31.8mm. If so, they’re estimate is $14.7mm too low.
Machado’s first three years of his extension were all in the 17m/yr range. It was a backloaded deal where gulp, he’s making 39m starting in 2026.
Tatis will be in a similar boat. 11m salary with a 26m AAV. The difference between those two players 2024 salaries and their AAV of their contracts seems why they want a payroll around 200m as factoring in their AAV’s gets them just under the luxury tax, I beleive.
They are at about 180m with Martinez at 8m
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Including $30M for Soto?
It is impossible
If all the team and player options are picked up and they offer arbitration to everyone, they are at about $209 million according to Cots.
Some of those guys are going to opt out. Lugo. Wacha. Martinez might, but its not likely he gets a higher AAV if he does, so maybe a renegotiated deal? Carpenter will definitely exercise his option for $5.5 million.
No, the $209M is without arbitration. Adding in the arb players, it is more like $245M.
But more practically, remove Wacha, Lugo, and Martinez, and then it is more like $223M. But then you need to replace 3 SPs, a #6 SP, and your closer. I’d be surprised if Preller can bring this in for under $300M (nor should they).
Use spotrac over cots
Its $174.1 million including all arbitration eligible and pre-arbitration players but no options.
Carpenter is $5.5 million. He will optin.
Martinez is a $16 million team option and $8 million player option. Padres will decline team option and he will probably optin.
Wacha is $6.5 million player option and $16 million team optin. Padres will decline their option and he will opt out.
Lugo is $7.5 million. He will opt out.
$209 million includes all arbitration eligible players, pre-arbitration players, and all player options based on Cots estimations of arbitration raises.
Baseball Reference has it at $216.3 million with team options exercised, player options exercised in other cases, and all arbitration raises and pre-arbitration salaries included.
Why? Spotrac is almost always wrong. Cots is spot on.
You are at 171 today
Soto is 30+more
You have also forgot the 15 mill in player benefits every team has to pay- Dont worry most people do
So at over 215 No your not keeping Soto and ducking the CBT … I haven’t even factored a single arb or fa yet either outside Soto
If your ducking the CBT (your not) man that teams gonna have holes (like 4 sps) …like Joe said you need to spend spend spend right now outta this self created hole yall dug
Padres have 2 SP locked in. Wacha and Lugo are likely to opt out but most writers think at least one will be back on a 3 year deal around $10 million AAV. Their beat writers are saying Waldron and Avila are both options at the back of that rotation. So likely they are looking only for one starter to replace Snell.
Suarez was talked about on this site as the heir apparent to Hader prior to the season. Not sure why that would have changed.
So adding Wacha and Lugo to the $174.1 million puts them at $194.1 plus $13.5 million for Carpenter and Martinez puts them at under $208 million. Add $5 million for Sanchez and $10 million for Jung Ho Lee and they are at $223 million. Add in $16.5 million for benefits and other 40 man salaries, etc… and they are pretty close to the CBT threshold.
What about Soto?
It aint happening my dude
They are at $174.1 million including all arbitration raises and pre-arbitration player salaries. That includes Soto.
It includes Soto. He is an arbitration eligible player.
Ill earmark this and we shall chat in 4 months
And when ya lose Hader nobodies going to talk about how happy they are w Suarez
Why so against going over the CBT anyways? I never understand that from fans ? Be happy with an owner willing to spend while they exist
Im not a Padres fan. Far from it. The team I grew up following for the past 66 years is in the playoffs.
Just not stupid and I can read.
I also read the quotes when the Padres owner said they were going to stay the course and spend the same in 2024. Not sure why people are so eager to believe a writer instead of the team owner.
Wait and trade Soto next July at the deadline. Somebody will overpay.
As a worst case scenario & pull the ripcord-type hypothetical… I agree.
Seidler will be calling both on the carpet and its not a sure thing that Melvin will be back regardless of Seidler’s vote of confidence.
The Padres will be ADDING to their roster and likely to their payroll. From rumors that are hot and heavy in the San Diego area, Seidler met with and gave an extension offer to Juan Soto.
The Padres are also known to want to extend Ha Seong Kim. The Padres are favorites to land his countryman Jung Ho Lee when he is posted by the Heroes. The Padres are one of 3 teams known to have had their top baseball operations person attend games in Japan in person to see Yamamoto play and are considered one of the 6 teams with a real shot to land him.
Personally I would like to see them allow Snell to walk. After winning his 2nd Cy Young, he is going to get 6/160 or more. Maybe significantly more. He will enter 2024 in his age 31 season. Age has not seemed to have stopped Seidler from signing or extending players, but hopefully Snell’s tremendous inconsistency will. Use that money on Yamamoto who is 6 years younger.
I also hope they allow Hader to walk. His refusal to pitch in any inning other than the 9th infuriated me. Give him a QO and don’t look back. EVERY season someone emerges as a great closer. No reason to give one 9 figures.
I would love to see Lugo come back. As the season went on, he got stronger. Preller’s decision to allow him to stay in that game last week showed he can pitch 7+ innings. Bring him back on a 3 year deal. Wacha is someone that I don’t think is worth $16 million AAV, but is worth making a 3 year offer around $32-36 million to.
In my mind the Padres should non-tender Nola and resign him to a minor league deal. For those that don’t know, he is still unable to see pitches well. Its not certain that he will ever play catcher again. Its still worth giving him a minor league deal to see if he can regain his old self and make it back as the backup for Campusano or whomever ends up in that spot.
Grisham is another one that should be non-tendered. His defense does not compensate for his total lack of offense. Rather see the Padres sign Lee and go with Azocar and Batten as the 4th and 5th OF. Spend that $5 million they save on bringing back Sanchez.
Hill will be making $5+ million in arbitration but I think the Padres will retain him in 2024 looking for a rebound from the injury that plagued him most of the season.
Barlow is entering his final season of arbitration and is due a decent raise. Padres will probably retain him after he put up such good numbers here. Also, Preller likes his long hair pitchers. (that is a joke folks). Garcia is a FA and should be allowed to walk.
OF – Lee, Tatis, Soto
IF – Machado, Bogaerts, Kim, Cronenworth, Carpenter, Campusano
Bench – Azocar, Batten, Cooper, Sanchez
SP – Musgrove, Darvish, Yamamoto*, Gray*, Lugo with Martinez/Waldron/Avila as depth
Pen – Suarez, Barlow, Martinez, Avila, Wilson, Cosgrove, Hill, Kerr, with Morejon and others as depth. Look out for Iriarte making the pen out of camp.
Padres have some decent depth in the minors. Their AA team was loaded at the end of the season. I could see Bush and Marsee getting a cup of coffee in 2024. Also would not be surprised at all if Alek Jacob made the squad out of camp if he returns healthy. Preller likes having that change of pace reliever with a funky delivery available.
I agree with a lot of this, don’t think it will be this exactly but I do think the padres will be very active again this winter.
I’d be willing to bet just about anything their payroll will be over 200m this year.
@web. All good but why Carpenter?
He has a player option at 7.5 so for now better count him on the bench.
Player #26 doesn’t make or break a team but at some point next year he will get the DFA.
They’re paying Hosmer too, but he’s not taking up roster space
Right but like Hosmer, omit took a long time before they pulled the plug and even then there was a trade put in place.
I said I think they will DFA him but it won’t be in the off-season. Why? Doesn’t cost anything to bring him to ST to see what happens. He may even become part of a trade or remember how to hit a little.
40 man and 26 man aren’t set until end of ST so no need for a roster spot until then.
He can be dfa’d in mid May after Merrill’s service time clicks oh, I mean after he gets 6 weeks of more seasoning!
@Longtimecoming But didn’t you say Matt Carpenter would opt out? I mean if you said it it MUST be true!
Carpenter’s player option is $5.5 million for 2025.
I think someone will trade the Padres something for Grisham. He’s good for 2-3 WAR every season, most of that comes from his defense which doesn’t play in arb so he’s cheaper than most other 2-3 WAR types in his arb class and can be controlled for 2 more years after this one. And Preller certainly isn’t going to non-tender him if he can get anything at all for him.
Do you think a team will both give up prospects and pay Grisham the $5 million he will get in arbitration?
I think they will give up *something.* I do not know what that *something* is. I do know that Preller isn’t going to non-tender Grisham if he can get something with even marginal upside for him.
This is probably the best move they could make outside of getting Lunhow to replace him. Say what you want about Jeff cheating, he also built an amazing farm that sustained the team long after he left. I have a feeling Lunhow is blacklisted from MLB gigs though, he’ll probably never get another GM job and that’s sad.
Preller is great at building a farm too and Seidler is smart to stay the course with their plan. You don’t throw in the towel because of one bad season after years of continued growth and development
Empty words. Decisions already made before the assessment. Meh. Seidler is an idiot or suffers from chemo brain.
Fire whoever it was that decided that Matt Carpenter was worthy of a spot on the 26 man roster all season.
Throw out money and hope it sticks. What great philosophy
As a Giants fan, I have always wanted to see the Friars do some damage with that lineup…knock those Dodgers off the perch. I wonder what pieces they can get to make up for their losses in the off-season with Hader, Snell etc looking to be on the move and front office trying to cut down to 200 mill or whatever was said
Padres finished 18 games behind Dodgers this year and over last couple years Dodgers lost Buehler, Urias, Gonsolin and May, which would be an elite starting four rotation on most teams. And even Kershaw has been injured about a third of the time.
I’m well aware of that, but with that lineup the Padres had they should’ve been able to give them a run for their money. I’m just wondering if not with this lineup then who can fill the gap.
Bartles and Jaymes say “thank you for your support!”
That’s not a pic of Bruce Bochy?
That much hype, that high of a payroll, an 82 win season. What do they need to do to lose confidence?