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The Opener: Tucker, Cardinals, Yankees, Marlins

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Tucker market accelerating:

Kyle Tucker’s market finally appears to be picking up steam. The Mets have reportedly made a short-term offer with an average annual value as high as $50MM, while the Blue Jays have put forth a long-term offer — the details of which remain unclear. If Tucker is genuinely considering shorter-term offers, the Dodgers will surely be interested as well. Other teams like the Yankees seem to be hanging around the periphery of Tucker’s market, too, although fellow lefty-swinging outfielder Cody Bellinger appears to remain the priority over in the Bronx. With some reports suggesting that Tucker could agree to a deal before the end of the week, where will he land?

2. Cardinals move into post-Arenado era:

The Cardinals finally pulled off their long-awaited trade of likely future Hall of Famer Nolan Arenado yesterday, and in shipping him to the Diamondbacks (and paying down all but $11MM of his contract to do so) they’ll enter the 2026 season without any of the veteran All-Stars they carried in previous years on their roster. For a rebuilding club like St. Louis, that means an opportunity to give significant run to younger players like Nolan Gorman, Thomas Saggese, and top prospect JJ Wetherholt. The question for the Cardinals at this point is whether (or when) some of the club’s arbitration-eligible players, like infielder/outfielder Brendan Donovan or lefty reliever JoJo Romero, will follow Arenado out the door.

3. What’s next in the Bronx and Miami?:

The Yankees pulled off a surprising trade last night when they nabbed hard-throwing lefty Ryan Weathers from the Marlins in exchange for four lower-minors prospects led by outfielder Dillon Lewis. The deal seemingly brings to a close the Yankees’ pursuit of starting pitching help this offseason. Weathers should fortify the rotation with Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon and Clarke Schmidt all opening the season on the injured list.

With Weathers now in the fold, perhaps the Yankees can more fully focus on addressing their lineup, whether that’s with a Bellinger reunion, a pivot toward Tucker or Bo Bichette, or a pursuit of an unexpected target. As for the Marlins, they were already considering adding an innings-eating veteran starter after trading Edward Cabrera to the Cubs last week. That only figures to be become more important now that they’ve taken another valuable arm out of their rotation mix. Zack Littell, Tyler Anderson, Patrick Corbin, Jose Quintana, Tomoyuki Sugano and Chris Paddack are among the many yet-unsigned free agent starters.

Poll: Will The Cubs Trade From Their Infield?

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The Cubs made a major splash over the weekend by landing star third baseman Alex Bregman on a five-year deal. As a multi-time All-Star who reliably offers Gold Glove defense at third base and posts offense in the 125 wRC+ range, Bregman is sure to provide a major lift to the club headed into 2026. Strong as the signing is for the team, however, it also creates questions about the future of some of their other players. The 2025 Cubs ended the season with regulars all around the infield. Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner handled shortstop and second base for the third consecutive season, while Matt Shaw entered 2025 as the team’s top prospect and had taken over third base on a regular basis by the end of the year.

The addition of Bregman leaves the club with four infielders for three positions. The designated hitter spot could help. With Kyle Tucker not expected to re-sign with the Cubs, Seiya Suzuki could spend more time in the outfield in 2026. However, Moises Ballesteros is currently the favorite for the DH spot, as he had a strong debut with the bat in 2025 but is considered a work in progress as a catcher.

Having too many guys is a good problem to have but it’s still worth considering whether the Cubs will do something to break up that logjam in the short-term. If they don’t, Shaw is likely to be the odd man out. He has options remaining and could certainly be sent to Triple-A Iowa to open the season, though he could also be carried on the club’s bench in a utility capacity. Hoerner is set to hit free agency following the 2026 season, so perhaps the likeliest option is Shaw taking a depth role for this year before taking over at second base when Hoerner reaches free agency next winter.

That’s a plan that comes with flaws in the short- and long-term, however. For one, Shaw losing the opportunity to get consistent, major league at-bats could have an adverse effect on his development. The 24-year-old turned in a decent rookie season in 2025, slashing .226/.295/.394 (93 wRC+) overall in 126 games. Those overall numbers are hardly exceptional, but he improved as the season went on. After the All-Star break, Shaw slashed a very impressive .258/.317/.522 with a wRC+ of 130 as he crushed ten doubles, three triples, and 11 homers in just 205 trips to the plate.

That considerable power potential Shaw flashed is certainly enticing, but it could be difficult for Shaw to build on that success if faced with either inconsistent playing time in a bench role or minor league competition at Triple-A. As noted by The Athletic’s Keith Law in the aftermath of the Bregman signing, Shaw went through several mechanical changes throughout 2025 and at times resisted help from the Cubs’ coaching staff. The youngster’s numbers took a turn for the worse during the final weeks of September and into the postseason, so it’s possible there’s more tweaks left for him to make as well.

That could make trading either Hoerner or Shaw himself a viable outcome. Hoerner’s name has popped up semi-frequently as a trade candidate over the past two offseasons, and it’s certainly easy to see why rival teams would have interest. The 28-year-old is coming off a career year in 2025. He posted a 109 wRC+ and struck out at a microscopic 7.6% clip in 154 games for Chicago. Over the past four years since becoming an everyday player, Hoerner has slashed .284/.339/.389 (105 wRC+) with an above-average wRC+ in every season. He’s paired that solid bat with elite defense at second base and also demonstrated the ability to be a above-average defensive shortstop before being bumped to the keystone by the team’s signing of Swanson back in 2023.

Taken together, Hoerner has been worth 19.6 bWAR and 17.5 fWAR over the past four seasons. That consistent four-to-five win production up the middle is certainly attractive, especially with Hoerner set to make an affordable $12MM salary this year.

The Mariners, Giants, and Yankees are among the teams that have been connected to him in trade to this point. Even as teams have come calling after Hoerner, however, the Cubs seem unlikely to deal him. Signing one impact infielder just to trade another would undercut the improvement offered by signing Bregman, and so it’s not a shock that The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma has suggested that the Cubs would have to be “blown away” in order to deal Hoerner.

Perhaps, then, trading Shaw to a team where he could get consistent playing time in a bid to either add more impact to the roster or beef up a flagging farm system could be the best course of action available to the Cubs. Shaw still has six years of team control remaining and will make the league minimum in 2026, meaning that he could be a fit for a number of teams that might want to upgrade their offense on the cheap. The Pirates, Guardians, Royals, Athletics, Angels, and Nationals are all teams that struggled to find production at either second or third base last year and could appreciate Shaw’s years of control and affordable price tag.

Even that comes with risks, however. Shaw’s value is arguably down relative to this time last year, when he was a consensus top-30 prospect in baseball. Additionally, Hoerner’s status as a pending free agent would make trading Shaw a big risk if not paired with an extension for Hoerner. The upcoming free agent class is reasonably deep in middle infield talent (Ha-Seong Kim, J.P. Crawford, Jazz Chisholm Jr.) but successfully landing one of those players is no guarantee. The team’s internal options behind Shaw are lackluster, as well. James Triantos was once one of the team’s better prospects but had a disastrous season at Triple-A last year that calls into question his prospect status. Jefferson Rojas had a solid year in 2025 but may not be big league ready by 2027.

How do MLBTR readers think the Cubs will handle their infield logjam? Will they work out a trade involving Shaw or Hoerner prior to Opening Day, or will they simply carry both players into the season despite the lack of playing time available? Have your say in the poll below:

The Opener: Bellinger, Relief Market, MLBTR Chat

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Here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye on throughout the day:

1. Bellinger, Yankees negotiations continue:

The Yankees and outfielder Cody Bellinger were recently reported to be at an impasse in contract negotiations. Both sides are interested in a reunion, but Bellinger has interest from other clubs, including the Mets and Dodgers. (The Angels, Phillies and Giants all at least checked in earlier in the offseason as well.) The Yankees have reportedly explored alternatives to Bellinger ranging from free agents like Bo Bichette and Kyle Tucker to trade candidates like Luis Robert Jr. and Nico Hoerner.

While contract length seems to be a sticking point, with Bellinger seeking a longer deal than the Yankees’ five-year offer, New York is reportedly open to bridging the gap by including opt-outs. If structured favorably, that could allow Bellinger to bank significant money over the next couple of years before returning to free agency at a later date. That’s the tactic he ended up taking during his last trip through free agency, when he sought a massive contract but ultimately settled for three years and $80MM from the Cubs.

2. What’s left on the relief market?

The Reds’ weekend deal with right-hander Pierce Johnson took yet another name off the board on a dwindling relief market. For other teams looking to bolster their bullpen, the options are waning. Seranthony Dominguez is among the top names still on the market, and he’s garnered some recent interest from the Twins. Michael Kopech, Jorge Lopez, Jose Leclerc, Paul Sewald, and Tommy Kahnle all remain available as well, but each comes with warts due to some combination of recent injury history and poor results. Lefties Taylor Rogers and Danny Coulombe remain available as interesting options and could be particularly valuable to a team without a quality southpaw for the late innings. Virtually every team could stand to improve its bullpen, but the Twins are joined by the Nationals, Diamondbacks, and Rangers as teams that appear to have a particularly significant need in their relief corps at this point.

3. MLBTR chat today:

Pitchers and catchers will begin reporting in mid-February, but plenty of questions about this offseason remain. Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette, and Framber Valdez are among the top-flight free agents still available, while the trade market holds intriguing talents like Freddy Peralta and Brendan Donovan who could still be moved. If you’re wondering what’s left for your favorite team to do before pitchers and catchers report or simply looking for the latest hot stove buzz, MLBTR’s Steve Adams has you covered with a live chat scheduled for 1pm CT today. Readers can use this link to ask a question in advance, follow along when the chat begins, and read the transcript after the chat concludes.

Poll: Will The Dodgers Add A Big Bat In Free Agency?

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Outside of a surprise strike to land star closer Edwin Diaz during the Winter Meetings, it’s been an unusually quiet offseason for the Dodgers. On some level, that’s understandable. The team had no core players depart in free agency this offseason, and they just won their second consecutive World Series title back in November. While Los Angeles has spent the past few offseasons building up a juggernaut by adding players like Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, and Tyler Glasnow, there’s less urgency to continue piling on star talent at this point.

Coming off two World Series championships, it would be understandable for president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and the rest of the team’s front office to be content bringing back mostly the same roster in 2026. Many signs point to them doing just that, as comments from team personnel have acknowledged the club’s aging roster and the importance of bringing along some younger players for the sake of the team’s long-term viability. Clayton Kershaw has retired. Freddie Freeman will play this year at age 36. Mookie Betts is headed into his age-33 season coming off the worst season of his Hall of Fame career. Even younger members of the team’s core like Ohtani (31), Snell (33), Glasnow (32), and Will Smith (31) are all on the wrong side of 30 at this point.

With many of core veterans under contract for years to come beyond their respective primes, even the mighty Dodgers have to think twice about adding another long-term, nine-figure contract to the books. At the outset of the offseason, many assumed that Los Angeles would once again be a top player in the market for the winter’s stars, like Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette. As the offseason dragged on, however, it quickly became clear that L.A. wasn’t interested in jumping the market for a top free agent as they have in the past.

The team has some exciting prospects poised to reach the majors in the coming years. Infielder Alex Freeland is already arguably MLB ready, and signing an infielder like Bichette could wind up blocking him long-term. Star outfield prospects Zyhir Hope and Josue De Paula are further away from the majors but could debut later this year and are both consensus top-50 prospects in the sport. Even as the team’s projected outfield lacks much impact (with Teoscar Hernandez and Andy Pages set to take up regular roles alongside some combination of Tommy Edman, Alex Call, and Hyeseong Kim), it’s easy to see why the team might hesitate about signing Tucker to a massive contract.

All of those considerations still remain for the Dodgers, but that hasn’t stopped them from coming up more frequently in the rumor mill for players’ markets as the offseason has progressed. Tucker remains available on the market and has a relatively small number of suitors outside of L.A., with the Blue Jays and Mets being the other teams most frequently connected to him. Bichette’s market has kicked up in recent days with the Phillies, Red Sox, and Blue Jays among the teams involved on some level or another, while the Mets and Yankees are two of the few remaining realistic landing spots for Cody Bellinger.

The Dodgers have appeared to remain on the periphery of all three of those markets, and appear ready to pounce if any of them express willingness to sign a shorter-term deal at a high average annual value. Whether that will happen remains to be seen but the likelihood of such a deal increases as Spring Training approaches. The Phillies, for example, would need to do quite a bit of maneuvering to fit Bichette into the roster and budget plans. That figures to include trading Alec Bohm, which could be difficult to pull off late in the offseason once teams have mostly settled their rosters. Meanwhile, a team like the Red Sox or Yankees could take themselves out of the market for help on offense by swinging a trade for a bat like Isaac Paredes or Brendan Donovan.

If a star free agent finds themselves without much of a long-term market and needs to pivot towards a shorter deal, the Dodgers appear very well positioned to make a play. Edman’s positional flexibility would allow the Dodgers to accommodate a short-term addition to either their infield or outfield, with the super utility man getting regular reps on the grass if Bichette is brought in or handling the keystone if either Bellinger or Tucker joins the organization. What’s more, it’s hard to imagine a more attractive club to spend a year with than L.A. given the team’s star power and winning culture. Helping the Dodgers to a three-peat with a strong 2026 campaign would be the exact sort of profile booster that a star free agent like Tucker or Bichette would be hoping for on a pillow contract.

What do MLBTR readers think? Will the Dodgers swoop in and snag one of the remaining top bats in free agency, or will they head into 2026 with more or less the same roster they won the World Series with last year? Have your say in the poll below:

Reds To Sign Pierce Johnson

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Jan. 12: Johnson is guaranteed $6.5MM, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.

Jan. 11: Right-hander Pierce Johnson is headed to the Reds, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The details of the contract are not yet known. Johnson is represented by John Boggs & Associates.

Johnson, 34, was a first-round pick all the way back in 2012. He made his big league debut in 2017 but didn’t stick in the majors right away and eventually headed to Japan in 2019 to pitch for the Hanshin Tigers. The result was a dominant 1.38 ERA over 58 2/3 innings of work in NPB, and Johnson then returned to the majors in 2020 and posted strong numbers overall across three seasons with the Padres.

Missing most of the 2022 campaign due to injury, however, put Johnson in an awkward position entering free agency following the year. He caught on with the Rockies and struggled badly, posting a 6.00 ERA during his time in Colorado, but was still an attractive enough target to be dealt to the Braves at the trade deadline. Upon arriving in Atlanta, he looked like a different pitcher, turning in a a 0.76 ERA, 36% strikeout rate, and 5.4% walk rate across 24 appearances down the stretch for the Braves.

It was a performance so impressive that Atlanta chose to extend Johnson on a fresh two-year deal that guaranteed him $14.25MM, including a $250K buyout on a $7MM club option for the 2026 season. Johnson posted a 3.36 ERA and 3.77 FIP overall across 115 1/3 innings in the next two seasons, but he was unable to carry over the pinpoint command he had flashed down the stretch in 2023. His peripherals declined, culminating in the righty striking out a diminished (but still strong) 24.8% of his opponents this past year, and the Braves ultimately chose to buy out his 2026 option.

Now headed into his age-35 season, Johnson will join a Reds team that managed to squeak into the playoffs last year and has its sights set on returning in 2026. After re-signing Emilio Pagan to serve as the club’s closer, Cincinnati has continued to retool its bullpen by adding Caleb Ferguson and now Johnson. That trio should be joined by Tony Santillan to make a formidable late inning relief corps for the Reds, while former starters like Graham Ashcraft and Connor Phillips provide some upside but likely slide into lower-leverage roles. With a stacked rotation led by Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott, Terry Francona’s pitching staff looks solid headed into the season.

The question for the Reds headed into 2026 is mostly focused around the club’s lineup. While Elly De La Cruz is a budding superstar and players like TJ Friedl and Spencer Steer have proven themselves to be quality role players, it’s hard to know if the Reds’ lineup will produce enough on offense to carry them back to October. Players like Noelvi Marte and Matt McLain have shown great promise in the past but have also struggled badly at times. The same can be said for reclamation projects JJ Bleday and Ke’Bryan Hayes. If the Reds have more planned this offseason after adding Johnson, adding more to the lineup would be the best way to improve the roster, whether that’s through free agency or perhaps a trade of someone like right-hander Brady Singer, who’ll be a free agent next winter.

The Opener: Bichette, Phillies, Red Sox, Bellinger, Yankees

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Bichette meeting with the Phillies:

The Phillies are reportedly scheduled to meet with infielder Bo Bichette today. The fit between Bichette and Philadelphia is a complicated one, however. Reporting has indicated that the club would need to not only forgo their pursuit of a reunion with J.T. Realmuto in order to land Bichette, but also trade third baseman Alec Bohm. Perhaps that would all be worthwhile in order to land another impact player to join Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Trea Turner in the middle of the team’s lineup, but it’s not the most straightforward fit.

The meeting comes on the heels of Toronto’s recent signing of third baseman Kazuma Okamoto. The Blue Jays’ decision to bring in another infielder doesn’t explicitly rule out a reunion with Bichette, who has long expressed a desire to remain in Toronto, but it arguably made outfielder Kyle Tucker a cleaner fit for them at this point. The meeting between Bichette and the Phillies dovetails nicely into the next item here…

2. What’s next for the Red Sox after missing on Bregman?

The Cubs made a big splash this weekend by inking third baseman Alex Bregman to a five-year deal worth $175MM. Deferred money brings that contract value down to the $150-155MM range, but that was still enough to outbid the Red Sox in their efforts to retain Bregman. Boston reportedly topped out at an offer of $165MM over five years — also with significant deferred money but lacking the no-trade provision the Cubs included.

With Bregman now ticketed for Chicago, the Red Sox will have to pivot. That could mean stepping up their pursuit of Bichette, with whom they reportedly met with over Zoom last month. Bichette was of interest to both the Cubs and Red Sox, so while it hurts him to lose one possible landing spot in Chicago, it also intensifies the need/urgency of another suitor up in Boston. The Red Sox could also look for a shorter-term addition like Eugenio Suarez, and a trade for an established infielder (e.g. Houston’s Isaac Paredes) can’t be ruled out either. One way or another, the Sox ought to have at least one more notable splash in store this winter.

3. Can Yankees, Bellinger bridge the gap?

Elsewhere in the AL East, the Yankees and Cody Bellinger have reportedly reached an impasse in contract negotiations. New York is said to be sticking to its guns with a five-year offer that guarantees Bellinger more than $150MM, while Bellinger’s camp remains steadfast in their desire for a longer-term contract — perhaps as many as seven years. In the meantime, Bellinger figures to draw interest from the Mets and Dodgers. He’s also been connected to the Cubs, though their recent addition of Bregman likely takes them out of that market. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently took a look at some other potential landing spots. As for the Yankees, the team has been loosely connected to other high-end players like Bichette and Tucker as potential backup plans to Bellinger, and the trade market could always present alternatives.

Details Of Red Sox’ Pursuit Of Alex Bregman

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2:19pm: Cotillo reports that Boston’s offer to Bregman was for five years and $165MM with significant deferrals.

2:09pm: Alex Bregman is headed to Chicago after landing with the Cubs on a five-year, $175MM contract that was first reported last night. That’s a crushing blow for the Red Sox, who were long reported to be prioritizing a reunion with Bregman after he opted out of the final two years and $80MM on his contract with the club back in November. In the aftermath of Bregman’s departure, reports out of Boston are shedding some light on the efforts the Red Sox made to retain their All-Star, and where that offer ultimately fell short.

According to a report from The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham last night, the Red Sox “did not come close financially and were not willing to give Bregman a full no-trade clause, which the Cubs did.” Today, reporting from Chris Cotillo and Sean McAdam of MassLive confirmed that the Red Sox were unwilling to offer Bregman a no-trade clause and added that the team cited “organizational policy” regarding no-trade protection in doing so. That, McAdam writes, “proved to be a sticking point” for Bregman, who has young children and values stability for them as he heads into his third consecutive year in a new city.

As for the financials, McAdam writes that the five-year offer from Boston was “reasonably competitive,” but added that it fell short of Chicago’s offer financially. Like the Cubs’ offer, which includes $70MM in deferred money, the Red Sox offer also included significant deferrals. Those deferred payments were scheduled out differently, however, as McAdam notes that the Red Sox proposed a payment plan “stretching out decades.” The exact payment details of Chicago’s offer aren’t yet known, McAdam notes that the decades-long payment structure Boston offered widened the gap between the two offers and reduced the value of the Red Sox’ offer further than the already-lower sticker price, relative to the Cubs’ offer.

Exactly how the two offers stack up will be easier to judge once more details come out about Bregman’s contract details in Chicago, but in any case it seems the offer that the Red Sox reportedly considered “aggressive” came up well short of what Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and his front office managed to put together. As a result, the Red Sox will have to turn elsewhere in their search for another middle-of-the-order bat for their infield. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale was among the reports to suggest in the aftermath of Bregman’s signing that the other top infielder on the market, shortstop Bo Bichette, could be the player they pivot to. Bichette figures to sign for even more than Bregman, did, however; MLBTR predicted an eight-year, $208MM contract for the infielder at the outset of the offseason.

Some of that, of course, has to do with the contract length. Perhaps an eight-year deal for Bichette, which would run through his age-35 season, would be just as or even more appealing to the Red Sox than signing Bregman through his age-36 season on a five year deal. On the other hand, it’s worth noting that this Red Sox front office has not yet given out a contract longer than three years via free agency. If the team has an aversion to long-term deals more generally, it would be difficult for the Red Sox to outbid rival suitors for Bichette like the Phillies and Yankees that have no qualms about signing free agents to lengthy contracts.

If the Red Sox aren’t willing to splurge on Bichette, the pickings for replacement Bregman become a lot slimmer. Eugenio Suarez offers big power and could be a fit on a shorter-term deal in free agency, but he struggled in the second half last year, will play this year at 34 years old, and is a lackluster defender at the hot corner. Turning to the trade market, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reportedly shortly before the new year that the Red Sox had narrowed their focus to five infield options: Bregman, Bichette, Ketel Marte, Isaac Paredes, and Brendan Donovan. With Bregman now in Chicago and Marte having been officially taken off the market by Arizona, that leaves Paredes and Donovan as the two primary alternatives to Bichette in that report.

Of the two, Paredes seems to be the better fit. Both are controlled for two seasons after this one, but Paredes is a right-handed hitter who seems likely to cost less in trade than Donovan. While Paredes has been pushed out of the Astros’ nominal starting lineup by the addition of Carlos Correa over the summer, Donovan’s market is known to have many suitors including the Giants, Mariners, and Royals. What’s more, Paredes is a right-handed hitter who primarily plays third base, making him a much cleaner replacement for Bregman than Donovan, a lefty hitter who has played all over the field but primarily plays second base. Paredes is also a marginally better hitter over the last four seasons (124 wRC+ vs 119) coming off a stronger platform season (128 wRC+ vs 119). Paredes (hamstring injury) and Donovan (sports hernia surgery) both ended their seasons with injury complications but are expected to be full-go for Spring Training next month.

Of course, it’s possible the club could look at other options now that their preferred targets have begun to dwindle. The Cubs, themselves, now have a surplus of infield talent after bringing in Bregman displaced Matt Shaw at third base. Adding another unproven youngster to a very young Red Sox roster likely wouldn’t be especially appealing, but Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner has garnered trade interest this winter and could be more available now that Bregman has freed up Shaw to take over the keystone following a hypothetical Hoerner trade. An elite defender at second base who has also posted strong grades at shortstop in the past, Hoerner is a well-regarded clubhouse presence who could help fill the leadership void created by the loss of Bregman.

With that said, his 109 wRC+ last year was a career-high, and his lack of power is unlikely to be especially attractive to a team like the Red Sox that finished middle-of-the-pack in homers last year and expressed an interest in bringing in a big-time slugger like Kyle Schwarber or Pete Alonso earlier this winter in hopes of improving that area of the offense. It’s also an open question as to whether the Cubs would even be especially inclined to deal Hoerner, as an infield of Bregman, Hoerner, Dansby Swanson and Michael Busch would be among the strongest in baseball headed into 2026. What’s more, Hoerner is slated to hit free agency following the 2026 campaign and the Red Sox may prefer to add a player under longer-term control for fear of finding themselves in this same predicament again next year.

Padres Interested In Adding Starting Pitcher

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Even after adding Michael King back to their rotation last month, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic report that the Padres are hoping to add another starter before the season begins. With that being said, however, it appears no deal is particularly imminent. Rosenthal and Sammon go on to write that the club has indicated to multiple players’ agents around the league that they “are not yet ready to move” on the pitching market.

Rosenthal and Sammon suggest that the Padres could be holding off on making an addition in order to clear money off the books with another move, such as a trade of Nick Pivetta. There’s certainly reason to wonder if that might be the case. RosterResource estimates San Diego’s 2026 payroll at $220MM, a modest increase over last year’s $211MM figure. For luxury tax purposes, this year’s $262MM is virtually identical to 2025’s $263MM figure. There’s been no indication to this point that the club is willing to scale it’s payroll up substantially from last year’s numbers, and signing even a mid-rotation free agent like Lucas Giolito or Chris Bassitt could cost somewhere between $15MM and $20MM in terms of annual salary. Dealing Pivetta and his $20.5MM salary could, in theory, allow the Padres to sign a starter in free agency using that money while also recouping either a young starter or help for another area of the roster as part of the return package for Pivetta’s services.

The team shopping Pivetta would certainly be a logical reason for the team to hold off on signing a starter, and the team was known to be discussing a deal with the Mets last month and that Pivetta was one of the players involved in those discussions. Of course, Ramon Laureano, Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, and Jeremiah Estrada were among the many names brought up in those negotiations. That deal never ended up coming to fruition, and The New York Post’s Jon Heyman reported earlier this week that talks regarding Miller, specifically “went nowhere.” That’s not a shock, given the massive price the Padres paid to acquire Miller just a few months ago. It’s hardly impossible that the Mets and Padres could still get together on a Pivetta trade that doesn’t involve Miller, though, and it’s certainly possible other teams looking for rotation help (such as the Yankees) could be intrigued by the right-hander as well.

Looking to clear salary isn’t the only plausible reason for the team to be waiting on making a rotation addition. Another possibility could be that they’re simply waiting for asking prices to drop. The club signed Pivetta in mid-February last year, with Spring Training fast approaching as players still on the market feeling pressure to sign. That allowed to land him on a creative four-year, $55MM deal that may not have been possible earlier in the winter. Waiting to see how the market develops could be particularly prudent if the Padres are intrigued by a player like Zac Gallen, who falls into a similar tier of the free agent market this year as Pivetta did last year.

It could also make sense if the club is hoping to add a starter from the lower tiers of the market on a relatively small guarantee. As teams fill out their rotations ahead of Spring Training, perhaps stragglers on the market would be especially attracted to the promise of a wide-open lane to secure a rotation spot in San Diego. Bounce-back candidates like Walker Buehler, Erick Fedde, and Jordan Montgomery are among the many pitchers who that sort of approach could make sense for.

Poll: Would You Rather Have Framber Valdez Or Ranger Suarez?

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The 2025-26 offseason hasn’t been exceptionally slow overall to this point, with 30 of MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents already signed in addition to plenty of significant trades. With that said, however, things have been unusually quiet at the top of the class. Outside of an early strike by the Blue Jays to land Dylan Cease back in November, the only free agents in MLBTR’s Top 10 who have signed are Kyle Schwarber, who was always expected to re-up with the Phillies in relatively short order, and the NPB duo of Munetaka Murakami and Tatsuya Imai, both of whom had firm deadlines to sign a contract due to the rules of the posting process. The rest of the offseason’s top free agents are still out there, and while plenty of attention has been paid to the four best hitters available—Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette, Alex Bregman, and Cody Bellinger—less fanfare has been made about the two best pitchers available.

With Cease and Imai off the market, the only two pitchers from MLBTR’s top 10 still available are lefties Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez. Both are on the shortlist of the most talented lefty starters in the game at the moment, with solid track records of success in both the regular season and postseason. Both players took some time to get their careers into full swing; each became a full-time starter at age-26, though Valdez reached that point during the shortened 2020 season so he didn’t receive a full slate of starts until the following year. Suarez also received a half-season of starts before getting a full workload, as he joined the Phillies’ rotation on a permanent basis in August of 2021 with 12 starts down the stretch and never looked back. Since joining their respective rotations full time, each has proven to be a reliable front-end arm.

In terms of overall track record, Valdez has the edge. Valdez has an extra year as a starter under his belt, but even by that metric, volume is a clear separator. His 153 games started since joining the Astros’ rotation aren’t too far ahead of the 116 starts Suarez has made when factoring that extra year, but Valdez’s 973 innings of work utterly dwarf Suarez’s 654 frames. Things are much closer in terms of results on the field, but Valdez still has the edge with a 3.23 ERA and 3.38 FIP to Suarez’s 3.39 ERA and 3.45 FIP. Suarez’s 22.2% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate, and 51.3% ground ball rate are all solid. But Valdez’s has the edge in terms of punchouts and grounders, with only slightly more free passes: 23.8% strikeout rate, 8.0% walk rate, and 61.5% ground ball rate.

That combination of volume and results may paint the picture that Valdez is clearly the superior arm, but there’s more factors to consider. Suarez and Valdez enjoyed virtually identical platform seasons, with a 3.59 ERA and 3.57 FIP for Suarez to Valdez’s 3.66 ERA and 3.37 FIP. The pair’s strikeout rate was also mostly the same, (23.3% for Valdez and 23.2% for Suarez), but Suarez took a big step forward in terms of walk rate and issued free passes at just a 5.8% clip to Valdez’s 8.5%.

That ability to cut down walks is certainly attractive, and it’s fair to argue that Suarez is trending upward while Valdez could be starting to show some signs of decline. That’s especially relevant given the age gap between the two; Suarez is two years younger than Valdez, entering free agency at age-30 as opposed to age-32. MLBTR projected both pitchers for five-year deals back in November. Using those predictions, Suarez would be paid through age-34 while Valdez would be on the books through age-36 on an identical contract. Suarez would also be cheaper, at least according to MLBTR, with a $115MM prediction for Suarez compared to a $150MM prediction for Valdez.

In addition, Suarez’s postseason resume is nearly spotless, with a career 1.48 ERA in the playoffs. By contrast, Valdez has a 4.34 postseason ERA. That comes in double the innings (85 frames against Suarez’s 42 2/3 innings of work), but the elder lefty’s work in recent years has been particularly lackluster; he’s posted an 8.27 ERA in his last four playoff starts. A strong postseason resume isn’t typically a major factor in the sort of nine-figure deals Valdez and Suarez are seeking, but it could easily serve as a tiebreaker for some clubs between two pitchers this similar. Another soft factor that could play a role in differentiating the two is an incident last season where Astros catcher Cesar Salazar was struck by a pitch from Valdez in a cross-up situation. Speculation arose at the time that the pitch was intentional on Valdez’s part, though both players declared it an accident afterwards.

How do MLBTR readers view the two lefties, and which would you rather have over the next five years? Are Valdez’s superior volume and results enough to overcome Suarez’s advantages in age and postseason performance? Have your say in the poll below:

The Opener: Skubal, Bellinger, Red Sox

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Here are three things around the baseball world to keep an eye on headed into the weekend:

1. Will Skubal go to a hearing?

The Tigers and reigning AL Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal made waves yesterday when they failed to reach an agreement to avoid arbitration prior to the filing deadline. The sides filed at a record-breaking $13MM apart, with the Tigers putting forward a $19MM filing figure while Skubal’s camp countered at $32MM. If the sides end up going to a trial, it would be one of the most impactful decisions ever made at the league’s arbitration hearings. The current record for a pitcher’s salary in arbitration is held by David Price and sits at just $19.75MM. A victory in this case for Skubal would utterly shatter that record, and it’s not hard to see why he might deserve that sort of price tag given his incredible back-to-back Cy Young award winning seasons the past two years. Of course, arbitration hearings don’t begin until the end of the month. That means it’s entirely possible the sides could reach an agreement to avoid arbitration before the hearing, although the “file-and-trial” approach most teams have taken to arbitration in recent years suggests that could be unlikely.

2. What’s next for Bellinger, Yankees?

A reunion between Cody Bellinger and the Yankees has long appeared to be the most likely outcome for the two sides this offseason. That might still be the case, but the two camps appear to be at an impasse for the time being. Reporting has indicated that New York put forward an offer to Bellinger with an average annual value in excess of $30MM, but that the sides remain apart in terms of contract length. That’s an extremely hefty annual salary, and beats the $28MM AAV (on a five year deal guaranteeing $140MM) MLBTR predicted for Bellinger at the outset of the offseason by a healthy margin. With that being said, the length of that contract offer is not yet known and could significant alter the overall value of that contract. A four-year deal with an AAV in the range of even $32MM would fall short of the total guarantee MLBTR projected, after all.

In any case, Bellinger seems to be prioritizing length with his next contract after signing short-term deals in his last two forays through free agency. The outfielder is reportedly seeking a seven-year contract, and that’s seemingly led both sides to evaluate other options. The Cubs are a surprising recent entrant into the Bellinger sweepstakes, while the Yankees could realistically pivot to another big bat on the market like Kyle Tucker or Bo Bichette. Will the sides split up over this gap in negotiations, or will they find a way to bridge it in the coming days and weeks?

3. Red Sox to host Fenway Fest:

January marks the start of Fan Fest season around the league, where teams hold fan conventions and celebrations in advance of the coming season. The first team to do so this year is the Red Sox, who will host their annual Fenway Fest tomorrow. The event runs from 9am to 6pm local time at Fenway Park, and tickets include access to autograph and photo sessions with players and alumni, a handful of panel discussions, and giveaways. Players and alumni in attendance will include Pedro Martinez, Wade Boggs, Carlton Fisk, Roman Anthony, Aroldis Chapman, Marcelo Mayer, and Ceddanne Rafaela. A full list of players, alumni, and coaches in attendance can be found here alongside further details about the day’s festivities.

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