Poll: Who Will Win The AL East?
With Opening Day just around the corner, the offseason is more or less complete for MLB’s 30 clubs and teams are now focused on the incoming season and being the final team standing to raise the Commissioner’s Trophy. Until the playoffs begin, however, teams will be focused on a smaller goal: winning their division. In the run-up to the start of the season, we will be conducting a series of polls to gauge who MLBTR readers believe is the favorite in each division. That series starts today with the AL East. All teams are listed in order of their 2025 regular season record:
Toronto Blue Jays (94-68)
The Blue Jays only narrowly won the AL East last year, with the division coming down to a tiebreaker. They made a much more convincing case for themselves as the top dog in the division come the postseason, however, as they easily dispatched the Yankees in the ALDS and went on to make it all the way to Game 7 of the World Series before losing that final game against the mighty Dodgers by just a hair. They went on to have an aggressive offseason in their efforts to stay at the top of the totem pole. The Jays lost Bo Bichette and Chris Bassitt to free agency, but managed to retain Max Scherzer while adding Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce to a rotation that already boasts Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, and Trey Yesavage. Their efforts to improve on the pitching side didn’t ignore the bullpen either, as Tyler Rogers was brought in to support Jeff Hoffman and Louis Varland in the late innings. Losing Bichette certainly hurts for Toronto’s offense, but Kazuma Okamoto figures to be an able replacement as a right-handed bat in the middle of the order, and the team also bolstered their outfield depth with the addition of Jesus Sanchez. Will that be enough to maintain control in the East, or will Toronto brass regret missing out on Bichette and Kyle Tucker this winter?
New York Yankees (94-68)
The Yankees only lost the East by a hair last year. Their plan for this season appears to be running back last year’s squad and hoping that the return of Gerrit Cole can push them over the edge. Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt, Amed Rosario, Trent Grisham, and Paul Blackburn are all returning via free agency. With that being said, the team didn’t make any significant additions aside from bringing back the old guard when it comes to free agency. Their lone major addition to the roster this offseason was a trade with the Marlins that brought back southpaw Ryan Weathers, who has never thrown even 100 innings in a season but does sport a solid 3.74 ERA across his last 24 outings. That addition to the rotation mix is matched by a substantial loss in the bullpen, however, as both Devin Williams and Luke Weaver eschewed the Bronx in favor of Queens during free agency. Perhaps the additions of Cole (as he returns from a season lost to Tommy John surgery) and Weathers will make up for those losses, but the Yankees will also have to contend with the injury bug; Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Anthony Volpe are all starting the season on the injured list, while Clarke Schmidt is already lost for the year to elbow surgery.
Boston Red Sox (89-73)
The Red Sox certainly had a busy offseason, but it’s not exactly the ones fans were expecting. Alex Bregman is suddenly a Chicago Cub. Both Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu remain with the Red Sox. While the team’s elite outfield remains intact, the infield looks somewhat suspect. The addition of Willson Contreras at first base should provide some reliability that former top prospect Triston Casas has not been able to so far in his career, but the Red Sox will be banking on another solid season from Trevor Story after his bounce-back in 2025 while turning to Marcelo Mayer at second base and Caleb Durbin at third base. All three of those players have the opportunity to be solid, but only Mayer has a ceiling comparable to the impact Bregman offered and fans in Boston need not be reminded of the risks associated with handing the keys to a young player at second base after Kristian Campbell‘s rookie year. On the other hand, the team’s pitching looks better than ever. Garrett Crochet nearly won the Cy Young award last year, and this season he’ll be supported by both Ranger Suarez and Sonny Gray to give the Red Sox one of the more impressive potential playoff rotations in the game. Will that be enough to win the AL East this year, given the club’s lack of impact hitting additions?
Tampa Bay Rays (77-85)
The Rays are coming off back-to-back seasons where they finished just a bit below .500. After the rest of the division spent the offseason loading up on talent for the 2026 campaign, a lot will need to go right for the Rays to improve this year. Junior Caminero is a superstar at third base but the losses of Brandon Lowe and Pete Fairbanks figure to be a tough blow this year. In typical Rays fashion, the club’s additions aren’t necessarily impactful on paper. None of Jake Fraley, Gavin Lux, Cedric Mullins, Steven Matz, and Nick Martinez had impact seasons last year but they’ve all shown themselves to be more than capable of being effective major leaguers in the past. Additionally, young pieces like Ryan Pepiot and Carson Williams could plausibly take the sort of step forward Jonathan Aranda did last year, therefore joining Aranda and Yandy Diaz as strong pieces of Caminero’s supporting cast. Will all that be enough to overcome the Rays’ high-spending rivals?
Baltimore Orioles (75-87)
The Orioles had a disaster of a 2025 season but they resolved to fix their flaws in this offseason and made a strong effort to do just that. Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward brought in reliable, right-handed power that a lineup stacked with upside but lacking in floor desperately needed. A revamped rotation featuring not just a healthy Kyle Bradish but also a reunion with Zach Eflin plus the additions of both Shane Baz and Chris Bassitt certainly offers more upside than last year’s group, even if they failed to sign the surefire ace they entered the season widely expected to target. That improved rotation is also being supported by a bullpen that brought back Andrew Kittredge after dealing him away at the trade deadline and added Ryan Helsley in order to replace injured closer Felix Bautista. The bones of a very deep and talented team are clearly present in Baltimore but whether they can rise from fifth in the division all the way to first will surely depend on the health and performance of their core pieces like Jackson Holliday, Jordan Westburg and Adley Rutschman. Gunnar Henderson remains a good bet to earn himself MVP votes but will the rest of that elite group of youngsters be able to start to catch up to him?
After a busy offseason all around the AL East, which team is most likely to come out on top this year? Will the Blue Jays hold on after their near-miss at a championship last season? Will the Yankees be able to get better results with the same roster? Will the Red Sox or Orioles be able to make an unorthodox offseason into a success despite notable misses on some stated goals for the winter? Or will the Rays once again work the magic that’s made them so successful in the past and surprise the league? Have your say in the poll below:
Who will win the AL East in 2026?
The Opener: Spring Opt Outs, Trades, Woodruff
Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. XX(B) Opt Outs today:
A number of veterans on minor league deals have uniform opt-out clauses in their contracts scheduled for today. That’ll provide them an opportunity to return to free agency before Opening Day, though they’ll have additional opportunities to do so later in the year. MLBTR’s Steve Adams took a look at more than 30 veterans who qualify for the opportunity earlier this week. Among the most notable players on that list are Padres righty Walker Buehler, Braves lefty Martín Pérez, Mets reliever Craig Kimbrel, Cubs outfielder Michael Conforto, and Guardians first baseman Rhys Hoskins. Will any of these players return to free agency, or will their clubs add them to the 40-man roster ahead of their impending opt-out decisions?
2. Late spring trades on the horizon?
Yesterday, it was reported that the Twins have been shopping catcher Alex Jackson before the season begins. Jackson was initially signed with a likely path toward being part of the club’s catching tandem, but after a change in philosophy during the offseason thanks to movement at the ownership level, the Twins wound up not only keeping Ryan Jeffers but also signing Victor Caratini to a two-year deal. That leaves Jackson as the third catcher, and since he’s out of minor league options, the Twins figure to see if there would be any takers on him and his $1.35MM salary.
Jackson isn’t the only one who could change teams shortly before the season begins. The Royals have indicated an openness to moving southpaw Bailey Falter. Like Jackson, he’s out of minor league options. Falter doesn’t have a path to a rotation spot with Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Noah Cameron and Kris Bubic healthy — and Ryan Bergert, Luinder Avila and Mitch Spence as depth — and the Royals may not want to dedicate his $3.6MM salary to a swingman. There are surely other players on the bubble of their team’s active roster who could be moved in the last few days before the season begins as well.
3. Will Woodruff be ready for Opening Day?
Right-hander Brandon Woodruff is the ace of the Brewers’ pitching staff now that Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta have both departed, but he might not be on the mound to open the season. The Brewers have made clear throughout Spring Training that they haven’t made a decision on whether Woodruff will begin the season in the rotation or be given additional time to build up on the injured list following the lat strain he suffered last year. That makes today’s spring start against the Rangers a significant one. If Woodruff looks sharp and is able to pitch reasonably deep into the game while maintaining his stuff, that would go a long way toward convincing Brewers officials that he’s ready to take the ball on Opening Day. The game is scheduled for 6:10pm local time at the team’s Spring Training complex in Phoenix, and the veteran righty will face Rangers southpaw Jacob Latz.
Poll: How Will The Marlins Round Out Their Rotation?
While the Marlins enjoyed an encouraging season in 2025 with a 79-83 record that put them on the periphery of playoff race relevance, the club is nonetheless still engaged in a multi-year rebuilding effort. This offseason, that meant trades of controllable rotation pieces in order to bring more young talent into the system. Right-hander Edward Cabrera was dealt to the Cubs for a package headlined by outfielder Owen Caissie, while lefty Ryan Weathers was shipped to the Yankees in return for a package of four prospects. Those departures from the rotation mix would be damaging to any team, but the Marlins are in position to weather the losses thanks to their exceptional pitching depth. Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez both have ace-level ceilings at the front of the rotation. The Marlins believe Max Meyer is ready to take the step into full-time rotation work after parts of three seasons in the majors, and veteran Chris Paddack was brought in via free agency to eat innings.
That leaves four spots in the rotation accounted for. For much of the offseason the assumption had been that lefty Braxton Garrett would reclaim his spot in the rotation after missing out on the 2025 campaign due to injury. Recent reporting from Christina De Nicola of MLB.com suggests that might not be guaranteed, however. De Nicola writes that the Marlins could consider giving Garrett additional time to rehab and build up towards his return to the majors after last year’s Tommy John surgery. That could involve him beginning the year on the injured list, or even simply using his final remaining option year to send him to the minors. Garrett was incredibly impressive for Miami back in 2023, with a 3.66 ERA in 31 appearances (30 starts) and a solid 23.7% strikeout rate.
Typically, it would be a shock to see the Marlins not simply go back to the once-effective southpaw for the final spot in their rotation. With that said, however, there are some indications that the club is giving a real consideration to Garrett starting the year in the minors. The lefty did struggle a bit in the seven starts he made during the 2024 campaign when he was healthy enough to take the mound, though some grace must be given considering that those starts came with solid peripherals and in the midst of an injury-marred campaign. On the other hand, De Nicola does note that the Marlins are hoping to have Garrett make changes to his approach this year and move into the strike zone a bit more often.
That’s a change that could take some getting used to for the lefty, and simultaneously changing his philosophy as a pitcher while also rehabbing could be a tall order for one Spring Training. If there are questions about Garrett’s ability to take on that workload, starting the season in the minors could make sense. That’s especially true given that Garrett’s return from Tommy John surgery has some similarities to that of Alcantara, who struggled badly upon his return last year. The Marlins are surely hoping to do a better job positioning Garrett for success when he returns than they did with the former Cy Young award winner, and that the lefty will be able to do a lot better this year than Alcantara’s 5.36 ERA in 31 starts last season.
If Garrett were to start the season in the minors, to whom could the Marlins turn? Perhaps the most obvious choice would be right-hander Janson Junk, who served as a swingman for the Marlins last year and posted a solid 4.17 ERA in 110 innings of work (including 16 starts) with even better peripherals. De Nicola notes that manager Clayton McCullough indicated that the club views Junk as a starter, and the team has worked to stretch him out this spring in order to keep him available as an option to start games. With that said, Junk pitched much better as a reliever (2.78 ERA) than as a starter (4.53 ERA) last season and has struggled a bit during camp this spring. Some of that can be attributed to poor sequencing considering Junk’s lackluster 62.2% strand rate in games he started last year, but his strikeout rate dropping from 22.5% in relief to 15.9% when starting games is surely no coincidence.
One other option could be top prospect Robby Snelling. Snelling would be something of a surprise pick for the Marlins, but the former first-rounder and current top-100 prospect is clearly poised to make his big league debut at some point this year. He turned in a dominant year between Double- and Triple-A last year, including 11 starts of 1.27 ERA baseball at the minors’ highest level. He struck out 30.3% of his opponents between both levels, and while he’s struggled in terms of run prevention (7.56 ERA) this spring his 32.5% strikeout rate during camp has been excellent. The Marlins have rarely allowed their young starters to stick in the majors for an entire wire-to-wire big league season during their rookie year, but if the team prefers to slow-play Garrett and keep Junk in a swing role then they might be best served starting Snelling in the majors and sending him down later in the year if he struggles or the rest of the staff is healthy when Garrett is ready.
How do MLBTR readers think the Marlins will ultimately handle the fifth spot in their rotation? Will they stick with Garrett to open the year even in spite of how things went with Alcantara last year? Will they overlook Junk’s lackluster numbers when starting last year and give him a shot? Or will they turn to top prospect Snelling in spite of his mixed performance during camp? Have your say in the poll below:
Who will open the 2026 season in the Marlins' final rotation spot?
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Braxton Garrett 51% (759)
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Janson Junk 34% (511)
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Robby Snelling 15% (225)
Total votes: 1,495
The Opener: Crawford, Cole, White Sox
Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:
1. Crawford visiting Meister:
Mariners shortstop J.P. Crawford has been struggling with soreness in his shoulder lately, and yesterday the Mariners revealed (as relayed by Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times) that he was set to visit with Dr. Keith Meister “to make sure [they’re] on the right track.” Any visit with a surgeon is going to be cause for concern among fans, but Mariners brass seemed to downplay the severity of the situation and added they expected to have an update on Crawford today. The shortstop is headed into the final year of his extension with Seattle and rebounded from a tough 2024 last year to hit a respectable .265/.352/.370 while playing 157 games at shortstop. If Crawford was to begin the season on the injured list, it would be an immediate test of the Mariners’ infield depth. Top prospect Colt Emerson is approaching the big leagues, but Leo Rivas and Ryan Bliss are already on the 40-man roster, whereas Emerson would need to have his contract selected. For a short-term absence, plugging Rivas in at shortstop seems likelier.
2. Cole returns to the mound:
Yankees ace Gerrit Cole is poised to make his first start since undergoing Tommy John surgery when the Red Sox visit Steinbrenner Field later today. The game is scheduled for 1:05pm local time in Florida and will pit Cole against Red Sox youngster Connelly Early, who made a big first impression in the majors last year with a 2.33 ERA in four starts. Cole is obviously one of the most talented pitchers in baseball when healthy and won a Cy Young Award back in 2023. However, he’s made just 17 starts since then due to elbow issues. Now headed into his age-35 season, it’s fair to wonder exactly what the longtime ace will look like once he returns to the mound.
3. Alberto waiver resolution:
The White Sox put Rule 5 pick Alexander Alberto on waivers this week, and that process should be resolved today. The Sox will have to offer him back to the Rays if he goes unclaimed, but any other team could pluck Alberto from the waiver wire before then if they’re willing to adhere to Rule 5 draft restrictions. The 24-year-old has yet to even throw a pitch in Double-A but impressed last year with a 2.59 ERA in 48 2/3 innings of work. It was understandable for a rebuilding club like the White Sox to roll the dice on him, but if he was unable to make the club’s bullpen out of camp (thanks in large part to a 10.80 ERA in 6 2/3 spring innings), it’s unclear if there will be another team willing to taking a shot on the towering 6’8″ righty.
Seiya Suzuki Diagnosed With PCL Sprain
March 17th: Manager Craig Counsell provided reporters, including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune, with an update on Suzuki today. The outfielder has been diagnosed with a minor sprain of the posterior cruciate ligament in his right knee. They will see how he progresses in the next few days before deciding whether or not he will require a season-opening stint on the injured list. (Members of the Cubs beat all initially used the word “strain” but Jordan Bastian of MLB.com later issued a correction and said that it’s actually a sprain.)
March 15th: During yesterday’s quarterfinal game between Samurai Japan and Team Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic, Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki limped off the field during the first inning after getting caught stealing second base (as noted by Yakyu Cosmopolitan on social media). Last night, Kevin Barral of Fish On First reported that Suzuki was removed due to discomfort in his right knee and that the team would continue to evaluate him. After the game, superstar Shohei Ohtani spoke to reporters (including Bob Nightengale of USA Today) and noted that Suzuki hadn’t yet undergone imaging to determine the severity of the issue, though he will presumably do so in relatively short order.
If the injury proves to be a serious one, that would be a major blow to both Suzuki and the Cubs. The 31-year-old has been on a torrid stretch all spring, going 2-for-4 with a home run and a strikeout during his brief stay in camp with Chicago before joining Samurai Japan and going 3-for-9 with a strikeout, two homers, and six walks during his four games playing in the WBC. That left him in strong position to carry his hot streak into the regular season, but now he runs the risk of being sidelined when the season begins with Opening Day less than two weeks away. 2025 was a strong season for Suzuki, as he spent most of the season playing DH for the Cubs in deference to Kyle Tucker in right field. He managed to put together a banner year from the DH slot, appearing in 151 games and slashing .245/.326/.478 (123 wRC+) with 32 homers.
2026 is an especially important year for Suzuki as his contract with the Cubs is set to expire, allowing him to reach free agency this coming November. In a free agent class with a relative dearth of high-end offensive talent, another strong year from Suzuki could make him one of the most coveted players available next offseason. He’s a career 127 wRC+ hitter in the majors across four MLB seasons, and over the past two years he’s slashed .263/.345/.480 (129 wRC+) with 53 homers and 21 steals across 283 games. Just 17 players have posted at least 50 home runs and 20 stolen bases over the past two years, and among them only George Springer, Gunnar Henderson, Bobby Witt Jr., Jose Ramirez, Juan Soto, Ohtani, and Aaron Judge have a higher on-base percentage.
There’s an argument to be made, then, that Suzuki has been among the most complete hitters in baseball in recent years. Another strong season for Suzuki where he posts similar offensive numbers to the past two seasons would cement his status as one of the top bats available in free agency, particularly given that he’s expected to return to right field on a regular basis this year with Moises Ballesteros getting a crack at regular DH time. Missing the start of the season would put a damper on all that, especially given that Suzuki averaged just 127 games a year over his first three seasons in the majors due to various trips to the injured list.
As for the Cubs, the team would certainly miss one of its top hitters if he does wind up starting the season on the injured list. The good news for Chicago, however, is that they’re relatively well-stocked in terms of depth at this point. Matt Shaw has begun getting reps in the outfield this spring after being bumped out of the regular third base job by the addition of Alex Bregman, while Michael Conforto is in camp with the Cubs on a minor league deal. Conforto already seemed to be in strong position to make the team’s roster as a bench bat, and if Suzuki were to start the season on the IL he’d surely join Shaw as one of the favorites for regular reps in right field to open the year. Chicago could also view an injury to Suzuki as an opportunity to get top outfield prospect Kevin Alcantara a look at the big league level as he heads into his final option year while facing a fairly crowded outfield mix.
Poll: Who Will Win The 2026 WBC Final?
Later this evening, the 2026 World Baseball Classic will come to a conclusion. It has been just as exciting as anticipated, with dominant performances from some of the elite teams combined with surprising upsets (such as Team Italy’s 4-0 record in the pool stage and Samurai Japan’s defeat at the hands of Team Venezuela in the quarterfinals). All of that leads into tonight’s game, where Team USA will take the field opposite Team Venezuela. Which country’s national team will emerge victorious?
Many have considered Team USA the favorite in this year’s iteration of the WBC since before the tournament even began. The club has boasted the tournament’s most star-studded roster, with Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal at the front of the rotation, Mason Miller in the back of the bullpen, and a lineup full of the game’s best hitters like Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh, and Bobby Witt Jr. (among many others).
Team Venezuela’s lineup is impressive in its own right, with a combined 25 All-Star appearances between their starting lineup (14 of which belong to Ronald Acuña Jr. and Salvador Perez). Their pitching is a bit less impressive on paper, however. Ranger Suárez and Eduardo Rodriguez are solid arms who have earned big multi-year deals in the majors, but they aren’t the sort of perennial Cy Young favorites that Skubal and Skenes are. A bullpen featuring Daniel Palencia, Angel Zerpa, and José Buttó is certainly solid, but none of those arms can hold a candle to the elite production offered by Miller.
That disparity in pitching is likely a big part of why 52% of MLBTR readers predicted that Team USA would win this year’s WBC in a poll conducted at the outset of the tournament, while just 2% predicted Team Venezuela would be able to pull off a win. Since then, Venezuela has shown its might by taking down not only Samurai Japan, but also the only national team that’s managed to beat Team USA so far in the tournament: Italy.
Venezuela’s back-end relief arms have been lights-out, and players like Luis Arraez and Maikel Garcia have managed to come through in a big way throughout the tournament. Of course, Team USA has delivered the offensive firepower as well. That Judge and his .979 OPS in the tournament actually sits below that of four other hitters in the lineup (Gunnar Henderson, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Roman Anthony, and Kyle Schwarber) says it all in terms of the United States’ offensive prowess.
If the USA’s national team is clicking offensively, and there’s a big discrepancy between the two pitching staffs, it might seem as though Venezuela remains an underdog headed into tonight’s final game. That might not be as cut-and-dry as it seems, however. That’s because Team USA’s pitching is not close to firing on all cylinders right now. Plenty of the team’s pitchers (including both Skubal and Skenes) have returned to MLB camp and aren’t available for the final game of the tournament. That’s led manager Mark DeRosa to tap Nolan McLean for tonight’s start, but McLean was shelled for three runs in three innings of work during his appearance against Italy. He’ll be facing a much more accomplished lineup tonight, and it’s hard to know if the 24-year-old rookie will be able to meet the moment.
If McLean falters, the bullpen supporting him seems unlikely to be as strong either. It’s not entirely clear who DeRosa will have at his disposal for the final game, but there’s whispers that one or both between Miller and top set-up man David Bednar could be unavailable based on their previous pitch counts. Players like Garrett Whitlock, Griffin Jax, and Tyler Rogers are certainly very talented and capable of handling late-inning roles, but that back-end trio looks much closer to Venezuela’s best bullpen arms than someone like Miller would. If Miller and Bednar are out, that figures to erode most of Team USA’s pitching advantage.
How do MLBTR readers think tonight’s final game will shake out? Will Team USA take the title, as many have assumed they would throughout the entire tournament, or will Venezuela manage to overcome the odds and be crowned this year’s WBC champs? Have your say in the poll below:
Who will win the 2026 WBC final?
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Team USA 67% (4,402)
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Team Venezuela 33% (2,144)
Total votes: 6,546
The Opener: World Baseball Classic, Suzuki, MLBTR Chat
Here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye on throughout the day today:
1. World Baseball Classic final:
The final match up of the World Baseball Classic is set! After their win over Team Italy last night, Venezuela is set to head to the finals of the WBC and face off against the United States. The game is scheduled for 8pm local time in Miami, with young right-hander Nolan McLean poised to take the mound opposite veteran lefty Eduardo Rodríguez. Both lineups are star-studded. Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge, Gunnar Henderson, Cal Raleigh, Alex Bregman, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Bobby Witt Jr. are among the many stars on the Team USA roster, while Venezuela is represented by Ronald Acuña Jr., Jackson Chourio, Willson Contreras, William Contreras, Luis Arráez, Wilyer Abreu, Eugenio Suárez, and Maikel Garcia (among others). One thing that could tilt the scales in Venezuela’s favor is uncertainty surrounding Team USA’s top relief arms. Maria Torres and Dennis Lin of The Athletic suggest that star closer Mason Miller may not be available for the game, while Jon Heyman of the New York Post indicates that Miller might be able to pitch but that right-hander David Bednar is likely to be unavailable.
2. Cubs, Suzuki awaiting MRI results:
The Cubs sent star outfielder Seiya Suzuki for an MRI yesterday upon his return to camp after he was removed from Samurai Japan’s final WBC game against Venezuela due to right knee discomfort. Results are expected to be known later today. Suzuki is one of the most important cogs in a deep Chicago lineup, and any missed time for the slugger would be a blow to the Cubs as they look to win the NL Central in a 162-game season for the first time since 2017. Non-roster veteran Michael Conforto and third baseman-turned utilityman Matt Shaw are the top options to replace Suzuki in the lineup should he require a trip to the shelf to start the season.
3. MLBTR chat today:
The World Baseball Classic is wrapping up, and Opening Day is just over the horizon. Free agency is nearing its conclusion (the yet-unsigned Lucas Giolito notwithstanding), and teams around baseball are gearing up for the 2026 campaign. If you’re wondering where your club stands, how their offseason went, or if there might be any other moves for your club to make, you ask MLBTR’s Steve Adams for his thoughts in a chat that’s scheduled for 1pm CT. You can click here to ask a question in advance, follow along once it goes live, and read the transcript after it’s complete.
Poll: How Will The Orioles Rotation Shake Out?
Yesterday, the Orioles announced they optioned left-hander Cade Povich to Triple-A Norfolk. That news was hardly a surprise, as Povich is perhaps the seventh or eighth starter on the team’s depth chart. Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rogers form a solid top two, while offseason additions Shane Baz, Chris Bassitt, and Zach Eflin fill the group out on paper.
That would leave Tyler Wells and Dean Kremer on the outside looking in. That’s at least true of Wells, who was officially informed he’d start the season in the bullpen two weeks ago. There remains a certain level of ambiguity regarding Kremer’s role, however. That’s a fairly new feeling for the right-hander, who has started 123 of his 126 games in the majors and been a full-time player in the majors since June 2022. In those four years, he’s been a solid but unspectacular back-end rotation piece with a 3.95 ERA and 4.17 FIP across 599 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 20.3% of his opponents while walking 7.4%, both numbers that hover right around league average.
Being a league average starting pitcher is hardly a bad thing. Volume has value, and Kremer’s 171 2/3 innings last year made him one of just 47 qualified starters in MLB. On the other hand, it’s not too difficult to improve on what he offers. Just 11 of those 47 pitchers had a worse season by ERA- than Kremer. Even by lowering the innings threshold to 100, Kremer clocks in ahead of just 40 of 119 starters on the list.
So, how is Kremer best used for Baltimore this year? The right-hander does have an option remaining, so the club could simply send him to the minors and have him at the ready in case one of their starting five gets injured. That could be preferable to moving Kremer to the bullpen. Having both Wells and Kremer in relief roles would leave the Orioles with their depth hollowed out to an extent. While there are certainly pitchers capable of sliding between the bullpen and rotation on a moment’s notice, it can take time for even players experienced in that sort of swing role to stretch out fully after moving from the bullpen.
The O’s could also give Kremer a spot in a six-man rotation. While the team’s bullpen has more than a dozen viable options, the only pitchers truly locked into spots appear to be Wells, Ryan Helsley, Keegan Akin, Dietrich Enns and Yennier Cano. They’ll eventually reinstall Andrew Kittredge into the late-inning mix, but he’ll start the season on the injured list after battling shoulder inflammation early in camp.
That’s the sort of depth that could support a six-man rotation, especially with Wells available to cover multiple innings. That could be an attractive option given that the rest of the rotation has plenty of reason to need extra rest. Bradish is coming off UCL surgery. Bassitt is entering his age-37 season. Rogers has never made more than 25 starts, and Eflin just suffered through an injury-marred season that ended in back surgery. A six-man rotation would offer each of those players some additional rest days and make it much easier to keep that group fresh for what the Orioles are surely hoping will be a deep run into October.
That aforementioned offseason surgery for Eflin could, at least in theory, offer a third option. Kremer could begin the season as the Orioles’ fifth starter while Eflin opens the season on the injured list, giving him more time to build up and kicking the decision down the road for a few weeks. Eflin was targeting an Opening Day return to action as far back as December, but even at the time acknowledged that it was far from a sure thing.
Fast forward to today, and he’s so far made just two appearances in Spring Training, the latest of which was abbreviated by a rainout. While he impressed in both outings, neither lasted more than two innings. It’s unclear, at this point, if Baltimore will be able to get Eflin fully stretched out for the start of the season or if they would be willing to dedicate a spot in a five-man rotation to him if he isn’t built up to anything close to the 90-100 pitches typically expected of an MLB starter.
How do MLBTR readers think the Orioles will settle their Opening Day rotation? Will they send Kremer to the minors, place Eflin on the injured list, or use both in a six-man rotation? Have your say in the poll below:
What will the Orioles rotation look like on Opening Day?
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Zach Eflin will begin the season on the injured list. 52% (866)
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The Orioles will fit both Eflin and Kremer into a six-man rotation. 35% (577)
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Dean Kremer will begin the season in the minor leagues or the bullpen. 14% (226)
Total votes: 1,669
The Opener: WBC, White Sox, Suzuki
Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day:
1. WBC Semifinals:
After Team USA’s exciting win over the Dominican Republic yesterday, this evening’s game will decide who they face in the finals of this year’s World Baseball Classic. Despite coming in as a clear underdog, Team Italy has yet to lose a game, going 4-0 (including a win over Team USA) in pool play and taking down Puerto Rico in the quarterfinals. They’ll send veteran right-hander Aaron Nola* to the mound at 8pm ET in Miami to take on Team Venezuela, who will counter with young righty Keider Montero. Venezuela managed to take down the reigning champions (Samurai Japan) in their last game and certainly has the stronger lineup of the two; Vinnie Pasquantino is Italy’s only hitter with multiple seasons of above-average offense in the majors, although they’re not short on interesting young hitters (e.g. Jakob Marsee, Jac Caglianone, Dominic Canzone). Venezuela, meanwhile, rosters Luis Arráez, Eugenio Suárez, Salvador Pérez, Maikel Garcia, Ronald Acuña Jr., Wilyer Abreu, Jackson Chourio and the Contreras brothers (among others). Will Italy be able to pull another rabbit out of their hats, or will Venezuela stop their Cinderella run?
2. Vasil being evaluated for elbow soreness:
White Sox right-hander Mike Vasil left his start over the weekend with elbow soreness, and yesterday MLB.com’s Scott Merkin relayed that Vasil is undergoing further evaluation to determine the nature of the issue. Vasil himself said Sunday morning that “something just didn’t feel right” during his start and that the team is running additional tests to figure out a path forward. Vasil, 26 later this week, was one of the team’s most effective relievers last year with a 2.50 ERA in 101 innings of work despite less impressive peripheral numbers. He’s been stretched out as a starter but has long appeared unlikely to crack the rotation for the White Sox, who added Anthony Kay, Erick Fedde, and Sean Newcomb this winter.
3. Suzuki to undergo imaging:
Over on the north side of Chicago, Cubs fans are waiting to hear more about the injury Seiya Suzuki suffered playing for Samurai Japan in the World Baseball Classic over the weekend. Cubs manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun Times) yesterday that Suzuki was still traveling to Cubs camp and that they wouldn’t be able to send him for testing until today. That could mean that the Cubs will have an update on the slugger’s status as soon as today. If Suzuki were to miss time, non-roster veterans Michael Conforto and Dylan Carlson would join third baseman-turned-utilityman Matt Shaw among the options to get right field reps in Suzuki’s stead.
*Italy had originally announced Michael Lorenzen as its starter, but Daniel Alvarez Montes of El Extra Base reported after this post was published that Italy was changing course and giving the nod to Nola. The two could be used in piggyback fashion this evening.
Hayden Birdsong Diagnosed With UCL Sprain, Grade 2 Forearm Strain
Giants right-hander Hayden Birdsong recently underwent an MRI due to an issue in his elbow/forearm area, and the news isn’t encouraging. Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area was among those to relay this afternoon that Birdsong has been diagnosed with a Grade 2 forearm strain and a UCL sprain. He’s weighing treatment options and expected to seek a second opinion from Dr. Keith Meister in the coming days.
While the exact timeline for Birdsong’s return to action won’t be known until the right-hander makes a decision on his treatment plan, fans in San Francisco should expect him to be out for at the very least months after this diagnosis, if not much longer. As Pavlovic notes, Birdsong’s diagnosis is often one that ends in Tommy John surgery. That would wipe out the entire 2026 season and likely at least part of the 2027 campaign as well for the right-hander, although if he opts to rehab the injury he would likely have a chance to return to the mound at some point this year.
It’s a frustrating turn of events for Birdsong and the Giants, as the former top prospect is still just 24 years old and was one of the club’s top depth arms behind their starting five of Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, Adrian Houser, Tyler Mahle, and Landen Roupp. Birdsong struggled badly with his command this spring, a trend that began last season, but has never wanted for velocity. Even during camp, the right-hander was throwing his heater at 97mph. He sports a career 4.77 ERA with a similar 4.81 FIP in the majors, but has shown flashes of excellence at times. That includes a 2.37 ERA and 3.50 FIP in his first 14 appearances last year, split between 11 relief appearances and three starts totaling 38 innings of work altogether. Pavlovic notes that the Giants were very encouraged by Birdsong’s latest spring outing, which saw him allow zero walks and strike out one batter while allowing just one hit in a scoreless inning.
If Birdsong had managed to finish Spring Training strong, it wouldn’t have been hard to imagine him as the next man up for the Giants’ rotation in case of injury headed into the season. That’s obviously off the table now, of course, and San Francisco will instead have to turn to a handful of other young arms if and when injuries force them to dip into their depth options. Top prospect Carson Whisenhunt is perhaps the most exciting name of the group, though he didn’t exactly impress in his 20 1/3 inning cup of coffee in the majors last year. The same can be said of Blade Tidwell, who posted a 9.00 ERA in four starts for the Mets before being dealt to San Francisco in the Tyler Rogers trade at the trade deadline. Swing man Carson Seymour also made his big league debut last year to mixed results, and after that trio the Giants could look towards non-roster invitees in camp like right-hander Caleb Kilian.