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A.J. Preller

Padres Notes: Clevinger, Lamet, Pham

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The Padres are planning to have a healthy Mike Clevinger ready for Spring Training, per MLB.com’s Shaun O’Neill. The 30-year-old made just four starts in the regular season after being acquired from the Guardians midway through the 2020 season. Clevinger underwent his second Tommy John surgery, missing the entirety of the 2021 season. Clevinger’s absence was one reason President of Baseball Ops A.J. Preller went out and acquired Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell, and Yu Darvish last winter, though even those additions ended up being insufficient as injuries took their toll on the Friars.

Dinelson Lamet’s inability to stay on the hill certainly played a part, as the right-hander could not stay healthy enough to hold a rotation spot. He came off the injured list on April 21st, but made just one appearance before landing back on the shelf. He later missed another 66 days with forearm inflammation. He ended up moving to the bullpen, making 11 appearances in relief and finished with a 4.40 ERA/3.94 FIP across 47 innings. Lamet’s role in 2022 will be undecided until the spring, notes O’Neill.

They’re open to re-signing Tommy Pham, per Preller, but it’s going to be a numbers game now. The 33-year-old put up 1.4 rWAR in 561 plate appearances, leaving room for an upgrade, should the Padres find the right player. Pham’s contributions were suitable, though a .229/.340/.383 at the plate leaves much to be desired.

The Padres have some flexibility in the outfielder corners, where Will Myers, Jurickson Profar, and Adam Frazier could all see time next season. Ideally, however, only one of those three lines up at an opening day starter. There are plenty of corner outfielders available in free agency, however, so the Padres don’t have to rush a decision on Pham. Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler, Joc Pederson, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Starling Marte, Seiya Suzuki, and Avisail Garcia are just some of the corner outfielders available, as well as more versatile options like Kris Bryant and Chris Taylor.

Padres’ Chairman: A.J. Preller’s Job Is Safe

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Padres president of baseball operations and GM A.J. Preller received a strong vote of confidence from ownership, reports Dennis Lin of The Athletic (subscription required).  San Diego Chairman Peter Seidler told Lin that Preller’s job is “as safe as a GM’s job can be.”  Seidler added: “I one-hundred percent believe in [Preller], one-hundred percent trust him.  And that’s not because I’m blindly loyal.”

That Preller is likely to continue leading the team for the long term hardly qualifies as a surprise.  It was just eight months ago that the club extended Preller’s contract through the 2026 season and added the PBO designation to his title.

The Padres, of course, are looking for a new manager after firing second-year helmer Jayce Tingler yesterday.  Last year, Tingler led San Diego to their first playoff appearance since 2006 and first postseason series win since 1998.  But the club’s second-half collapse in 2021, along with reports of tensions in the clubhouse, led to his dismissal.  Tingler was offered the opportunity to remain with the team in an as-yet-undetermined capacity, and Seidler said he hopes Tingler decides to stay. He added that the rest of the coaching staff has been given permission to look for opportunities elsewhere.

Seidler also told Lin that Preller alone will decide who the club’s next manager will be.  He said that while he and Preller recognize the value of major league managing experience, that won’t be a prerequisite for the new hire. “As we did when we hired Jayce, we put a premium on people with experience,” Seidler said. “But I would rather get the right 34-year-old than the wrong 64-year-old.”

Seidler’s comment regarding a new manager not needing prior big league managing experience is sure to raise eyebrows among at least some Padres fans.  Since being hired as GM in 2014, Preller has tabbed two permanent managers, Tingler and his predecessor Andy Green.  Neither had managed an MLB club prior to joining the Padres. There’s been plenty of speculation the Padres could zero in on a more veteran skipper this time around, but it doesn’t sound as if ownership or Preller consider that an absolute necessity.

Latest On Padres’ Front Office

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TODAY: Ryley Westman has been promoted from director of player development to farm director, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel (Twitter link).  Amateur scouting director Mark Conner has also been reassigned to a special assistant role, as international scouting director Chris Kemp will now assume Conner’s old duties.

SEPTEMBER 21: The Padres have decided not to renew the contract of farm director Sam Geaney, reports Dennis Lin of the Athletic. Geaney departs the organization after spending nearly seven years leading the club’s minor league system.

Geaney was hired in October 2014, just a couple months after the Padres tabbed A.J. Preller to lead baseball operations. The team made an ill-fated attempt to contend in Preller’s first year at the helm before committing to a significant teardown and rebuild. That process involved trading established big leaguers for prospects and a significant financial outlay in the international amateur market, leading to the construction of a farm system that was perhaps the game’s best for a couple years.

That rebuild began to bear fruit in 2019, when players like Fernando Tatís Jr. and Chris Paddack made their big league debuts. The team still struggled, but that changed in 2020. The Friars went 37-23 in last year’s shortened season, making the playoffs for the first time in fourteen years. In addition to bringing aboard talented young players like Tatís, Trent Grisham and Jake Cronenworth, Preller and the front office aggressively pursued star players in free agency and trade over the past few seasons. Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado had been brought aboard on huge free agent deals, while San Diego built a star-studded rotation via trade, landing Blake Snell, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove (in addition to the since-injured Mike Clevinger) from other organizations.

That series of bold strikes had a few effects. It thinned out the once-vaunted farm system significantly. Luis Patiño, who went to the Rays in the Snell deal, was perhaps the only truly elite young talent sent away. But San Diego parted with a collection of generally well-regarded players, dealing a blow to the minor league depth. Still, that seemed a price worth paying to build a fantastic big league roster, and the Padres entered the 2021 campaign with extraordinarily high expectations.

Early in the season, San Diego looked well on their way to meeting those lofty goals. They won 32 of their first 50 games; by late May, their chances of making the postseason were approaching 99% in FanGraphs’ estimation. Things have changed dramatically since that high water mark, with the club particularly struggling coming out of the All-Star Break. The Padres have gone just 23-33 in the season’s second half, entering play tonight with a 76-73 record that places them four games behind the Cardinals in the race for the National League’s final Wild Card spot (with the Reds also a game above them in the standings). Their playoff chances — considered a near-lock a few months ago — have plummeted to 3.4%.

Given that collapse, there’s been plenty of speculation recently about potential staffing changes that would go beyond Geaney’s dismissal. Preller, who was promoted to president of baseball operations and extended through 2026 in February, doesn’t seem likely to be in much danger. But alterations to the coaching staff could be a more realistic possibility, and the team will at least have one notable coaching decision to make this coming offseason.

The Padres fired pitching coach Larry Rothschild on August 23, bumping bullpen coach Ben Fritz to the position on an interim basis. That hasn’t brought about any sort of immediate turnaround, as Padres hurlers rank just 22nd in ERA (4.90) and 15th in SIERA (4.20) since making the change. This winter, they’ll need to determine whether to hand the job to Fritz permanently.

Recent days have also brought about some speculation regarding second-year manager Jayce Tingler’s future in the organization. Over the weekend, Ken Rosenthal, Lin and Britt Ghiroli of the Athletic and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune separately reported that Tingler, whose contract runs through 2022, is facing increased scrutiny within the clubhouse. Both outlets report that some members in the organization have questioned whether Tingler — a 40-year-old skipper in his first managerial job — has done enough to command the respect of the locker room.

Clubhouse frustration boiled over publicly on Saturday, when Tatís engaged in respective shouting matches in the dugout with bench coach Bobby Dickerson and Machado. Tingler had previously been ejected from the game, and development coach Ryan Flaherty intervened to break up the argument.

It’s certainly no surprise that frustration is mounting in the organization, given the manner in which the team’s play has fallen off. But Rosenthal, Lin and Ghiroli suggested some with the team see the spat as a microcosm of a broader leadership void. Acee, meanwhile, reported that some members of the clubhouse have desired Tingler’s dismissal for a while — and would continue to do so even if the team rights the ship and manages an improbable playoff push over the season’s final couple weeks. Both pieces present a detailed look into a seemingly messy situation and are worth full perusals.

Despite that reported discord, it’s by no means a fait accompli that Tingler’s managing his final few games in San Diego. Acee cautions that some players in the clubhouse still stick by the skipper, instead expressing frustration with what they believe to be other players’ excuses for the team’s underperformance. Both the Athletic and the Union-Tribune note that Preller and Tingler, who previously worked together in the Rangers’ front office, are very close personal friends, leading some to question whether Preller would be willing to dismiss Tingler.

It’s also impossible to pin down precisely how much blame Tingler actually deserves for the team’s struggles. As mentioned, the Padres were quite successful last season, Tingler’s first at the helm. This year, the roster has been hit hard by injuries, particularly on the pitching side. Clevinger was lost to a Tommy John surgery over the offseason. Fifth starter Adrián Morejón required the same procedure in April. Darvish, Paddack and Snell have all missed some amount of time due to injury; Paddack and Snell remain on the IL. Top prospect MacKenzie Gore, expected to be a potential big league option entering the season, struggled significantly in the minors and hasn’t proven ready for a call-up.

That’s led the Padres to look for buy-low pickups in recent weeks, with the team signing Jake Arrieta and Vince Velasquez after they’d been released by other clubs. That came on the heels of a trade deadline in which the front office failed to bolster the rotation, despite reported pursuits of Max Scherzer and José Berríos. (Arrieta was designated for assignment this evening after struggling over four starts).

The Friars weren’t completely inactive. They landed second baseman Adam Frazier and reliever Daniel Hudson only to see those players’ performances unexpectedly crater. But this extremely aggressive front office’s inability to land any rotation help was one of the more surprising takeaways immediately after the deadline, and it’s proven to be a significant storyline for the team in the second half.

For now, the Padres have tried to tamp down speculation about the future as they focus on the season’s final couple weeks. Tingler pushed back on the idea that he’d lost the respect of the clubhouse when speaking with reporters (including Bob Nightengale of USA Today) this evening. Machado and Tatís conducted a joint press conference tonight in which they claimed they’ve put Saturday’s incident behind them (video from Annie Heilbrunn of the Union-Tribune). It seems unlikely there’ll be any significant shakeup in San Diego while the season’s ongoing, but the Padres’ staffing decisions could prove to be one of the more important things to watch in the early portion of the upcoming offseason.

MLBTR Polls: Padres Versus Blue Jays Bullpen Showdown

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The Toronto Blue Jays uncharacteristically spent much of the offseason in the spotlight, exhausting their Rolodex to add talent in free agency. As a result, their lineup, to borrow a phrase, is in the best shape of its life. Yet, doubts about their status as contenders prevail, largely because of a perceived lack of high-end firepower in the rotation. They brought Robbie Ray back, but otherwise added only Steven Matz coming off a disastrous season in New York. Though Matz has impressed so far, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, the rotation anxiety is warranted. Arguably, however, the bullpen poses a greater threat to the Jays as they attempt to unseat the Rays and Yankees atop the American League East.

GM Ross Atkins landed stud closer Kirby Yates in free agency, and despite just two appearances this spring, they’re ready to commit to the former Padre as their closer, writes Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star. There was little doubt, though the 34-year-old is hardly unblemished. He made just six appearances last year before undergoing surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow. Thus, he’s not likely to shoulder a workhorse burden as a 70-80 inning arm out of the pen. So while the glory and the title will belong to Yates, the responsibility of holding leads weighs just as heavily on arms like Jordan Romano, Rafael Dolis, Tyler Chatwood and David Phelps.

Romano burst onto the scene as a legitimate weapon with a 1.23 ERA and 36.8 percent strikeout rate in 2020, while Rafael Dolis returned stateside for the first time since 2013 to post an equally impressive 1.50 ERA and 31.0 percent strikeout rate. Both had FIPs roughly a run and a half higher than their ERAs, however, and could be in line for at least a touch of regression in 2021. Newcomers Chatwood and Phelps are pro arms, but they lack the pedigree of high-leverage, first-division bullpen stalwarts.

Julian Merryweather has some potential to pop as a multi-inning option. The Blue Jays aim to get the 29-year-old right-hander around 100 total innings. He’s 29 years old with only 13 career innings in the Majors, but he’s long been an intriguing talent. Armed with a fastball that averages close to 97 mph, Merryweather is at least worth watching as a potential difference-maker. The Jays hoped Tom Hatch might be another sleeper, but they await a status update on elbow inflammation, per Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter).

From the left side, Francisco Liriano, Ryan Borucki, and Anthony Kay are the most likely to make the roster. The 37-year-old Liriano has been in the Majors since 2005, but the 3.47 ERA he posted last season in Pittsburgh was his best ERA or FIP since his first Pirates’ tenure in 2015. Kay has a higher ceiling, but he has yet to establish himself at the big-league level.

On the whole, the Blue Jays very much require Yates to actualize as the guy who locked down 53 saves with a 1.67 ERA/1.93 FIP for the Padres from 2018-19. If he doesn’t return to that form, the bottom could fall out for this group; a rudderless unit is prone to spiral.

Speaking of Yates’ former club, the Padres, too, are working to establish a new pecking order at the back end of the bullpen. Yates left town, but so did his replacement Trevor Rosenthal. The Padres exported another potential closer in Andres Munoz to the Mariners last August. Luis Patiño could have been used out of the bullpen as well, had he not been included in the Blake Snell deal.

Unlike the Blue Jays, however, the Padres have made repeated efforts to replenish their bullpen reserves with veteran, battle-tested arms. While keeping Craig Stammen in the fold, the Padres added Drew Pomeranz and Pierce Johnson in free agency last winter. They supplemented that crew with free agent additions Mark Melancon and Keone Kela this year. President of Baseball Ops and GM A.J. Preller didn’t stop there, however. He exhausted the trade market as well, netting Tim Hill from the Royals and Emilio Pagan from the Rays prior to 2020. Then, in the deal that sent Munoz to the Mariners, Preller acquired Dan Altavilla and Austin Adams, the latter of whom continues to work his way back from injury. Even non-roster invitee Nabil Crismatt has impressed so far this spring.

Should that deep pool of arms prove insufficient, the Padres can fall back on their depth of prospect arms like MacKenzie Gore, Ryan Weathers, Adrian Morejon, Michel Baez, and others. For now, Morejon looks like he’ll start the year in the rotation, notes Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, but roles are certain to change throughout the season.

On a roster that includes 282 career saves, it’s Pagan who appears closest to nabbing the title of closer, writes Acee. Pagan had a difficult 2020, but the team believes right arm pain was a significant mitigating factor in his 4.50 ERA/4.69 FIP. He saved just two games last year, but he is only a year removed from locking down 20 saves for the Rays. He has averaged seven holds per season over the last four.

Granted, Pagan’s fastball velocity was down from 95.5 mph in 2019 to 94.5 mph in 2020. Even dropping velocity, his high-spin four-seamer showed elite vertical rise. He’ll weaponize it up in the zone, contrasting with his cutter, which zags where the fastball zigs.

Bottom line, the Blue Jays and Padres both field strong relief units – but both can reasonably chart a path to future adversity, though differently so. While Pagan isn’t the most experienced arm in the Padres’ pen – that would be Melancon with his 205 career saves – he’s certainly capable closing games. If not, the Padres have no shortage of alternatives, even with the threat of injury looming. The counterpoint: as they say in football, a team with three quarterbacks has none. For the Blue Jays, Yates won’t have nearly as much internal competition breathing down his neck, but that also means less of a safety net. The Jays don’t boast the diversity of options the Padres do –  what they have is three arms in Yates, Romano, and Dolis who posted sub-2.00 ERA’s in their last full season.

Different approaches, but the same goal: preserve leads and win enough ballgames to make the playoffs and contend for a title. Which bullpen do you trust more? What grade would you give each bullpen heading into 2021? Lastly, in a draft for 2021 comprised only of the veterans in the Padres ’and Blue Jays’ bullpens, I’m curious know what who MLBTR readers trust the most. Between both teams, who is the guy you’d want closing games on a contender?

(links for app users: poll 1, poll 2, poll 3, poll 4)

NL Notes: Padres, Preller’s Winter, Cubs, Extension Talks, Shelby Miller

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There was a point in the offseason when Padres’ GM A.J. Preller almost acquired Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, and Joe Musgrove on the same day, he said on Jon Heyman and Tony Gwynn Jr.’s Big Time Baseball podcast. Ultimately, it took a span of roughly three weeks to get all three arms dressed in brown, white, and gold. The deals took some finagling, as at one point, at least one of the players who ultimately went to Tampa Bay was slated for both the Snell and Darvish deals. Once the Snell deal went through, Preller and the Cubs had to renegotiate and swap in new names. Preller did not say which of the Rays’ new prospects was also coveted by the Cubs. But he did touch on their pursuit of one-time free agent and current Los Angeles Dodger Trevor Bauer. Preller and the Padres felt Bauer was going to take his time making a decision, and they didn’t want to be left holding the bag, so to speak, if he chose to go elsewhere. The Padres executed their trade plans instead, completing the most dramatic winters in recent memory. Despite the myriad additions, the Padres will have room for an in-season addition, should they feel the need, noted Preller. More on the Cubs…

  • After months – years, even – of trade speculation around their star core, the Cubs see varying levels of uncertainty around the respective futures of Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, or Kris Bryant, writes Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago. Bryant seems destined for free agency. Rizzo is confident that he’ll remain a Cub beyond 2021, and the Cubs’ affection for Rizzo has never wavered. He’s the likeliest of the trio to receive an extension. Baez wants an extension, but given the potential options in free agency next winter, the Cubs would be wise to wait unless the Wasserman client succumbs to team friendly terms. Our speculation need not end on April 1st, however. Unlike some other players seeking extensions – namely and most apropos, Francisco Lindor – Baez has no problem continuing extension talks into the season, notes Wittenmyer. It’s worth noting that Wasserman also represents Kyle Hendricks, with whom the Cubs worked out an extension late in March, 2019.
  • Newfound command of his slider has helped Shelby Miller make a compelling case to make the Cubs’ roster, per Meghan Montemurro and Lamond Pope of the Chicago Tribune. Said Miller, “Opposing hitters have to respect a whole other pitch that they haven’t seen. I’ve just got to keep throwing it, and hopefully it gets better. And I’m just going to go out there and get outs. That’s all I can say really.” Miller is a long shot to make the rotation out of camp with Hendricks, Zach Davies, Jake Arrieta, Trevor Williams, Alec Mills, and Adbert Alzolay ahead of Miller in the pecking order. He’s in the mix for a bullpen spot, however. A lot may depend on whether Alzolay is granted another option season. If not, he’ll be on the roster in one form or another. Miller is a non-roster invitee who would need to be added to the 40-man roster to make the team. The Cubs have one open 40-man roster spot.

Padres Extend A.J. Preller

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The Padres have extended general manager A.J. Preller through the 2026 season and given him the title of president of baseball operations, the team announced.  President of business operations Erik Greupner has also been given a promotion to Chief Executive Officer and a similar contract extension through 2026.

“Erik and A.J. have earned their promotions by assembling strong business and baseball operations groups within our organization while working together towards our singular goal of winning a World Series championship,” Padres owner Peter Seidler said as part of a statement released by the team.  “Erik is a steady hand and multi-talented leader, and he has been the driving force behind our innovative business growth in a continuously evolving sports landscape.  A.J. has skillfully built both a playoff-caliber Major League club and a top tier minor league system.  I look forward to working with Erik and A.J. towards an exciting future for our deserving and extraordinarily supportive fans.”

This is the second contract extension signed by Preller since he was originally hired by the team in August 2014, and his previous deal was set to expire after the 2022 season.  Clearly the Padres wanted to act quickly in committing to an executive who, despite a lot of ups and downs, now seems to have positioned San Diego to contend for the better part of the coming decade.

Preller’s first offseason in charge of the Padres saw the team load up on established veterans, an aggressive strategy that backfired with another losing season in 2015 and, eventually, led to another rebuild.  Preller spent the next few seasons overseeing the development of arguably baseball’s minor league system, setting the groundwork for a multi-year effort to again obtain star players in various trades, while also hanging onto many of the most highly-regarded members of this farm system.  Combine this with Padres ownership’s willingness to break the bank on expensive free agent signings like Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer, and the Padres have suddenly amassed a very deep and talented roster intent on overthrowing the Dodgers atop the NL West and finally bringing San Diego its first World Series title.

It has been quite a turn-around for Preller considering that he was reportedly close to being fired back in 2016 after a 30-day suspension issued by Major League Baseball.  Preller was punished for failing to disclose medical information about Drew Pomeranz when the Padres dealt him to the Red Sox for prospect Anderson Espinoza, and multiple other teams also spoke to the league about similar alleged actions in other Padres trades.

2020 was the Padres’ first winning season of Preller’s tenure, as the team went 37-23 in the regular season and defeated the Cardinals in the Wild Card Series before falling to the Dodgers in the NLDS.  With a playoff berth finally under his belt, Preller was again aggressive this winter, adding Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, and Joe Musgrove in newsworthy trades, re-signing Jurickson Profar to a three-year deal, and signing Korean star Ha-Seong Kim to a free agent contract.

The addition of the president of baseball operations title doesn’t materially change Preller’s duties, as he was already the team’s top front office decision-maker.  Teams use various designations (whether president of baseball ops, chief baseball officer, senior VP, general manager, etc.) for the person in charge of their baseball operations department, though the new title just cements Preller’s position and perhaps keeps other teams from trying to lure him away in the future with offers of a promtion.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

A.J. Preller Discusses Padres’ Offseason, Tatis, Lamet

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Padres general manager A.J. Preller spoke with reporters (including MLB.com’s Maria Guardado and The Athletic’s Dennis Lin) Monday about a variety of topics related to the team’s offseason business, including a continued search for pitching.  However, an in-house star was also discussed, as Preller said that working out a multi-year extension for Fernando Tatis Jr. is “a priority” for the organization.

“I think his situation is a priority and I think we’re in a position to try to line up on a deal,” Preller said.  “I think we’ll see what happens here over the course of the rest of the offseason, to see if we can do that.”

Tatis has quickly become one of baseball’s biggest young talents over his two MLB seasons, hitting .301/.374/.582 with 39 homers over 629 career plate appearances.  He doesn’t even turn 22 years old until January, putting him on pace to receive a potential record-setting free agent contract if he reaches the open market following his age-25 season.  Tatis’ price tag will already begin to rise significantly next offseason, as he will reach the first of three years of arbitration eligibility.

The Padres therefore have lots of incentive to ink Tatis to a long-term deal, and some common ground could be reached given that Tatis has also reportedly expressed interest in an extension.  Locking in a life-changing fortune so early in his career would naturally have appeal to Tatis, and because he is so young, he has plenty of time to land at least one more major deal later in his career.  Signing even a seven-year extension now would allow Tatis to still reach free agency before his age-29 season.

With both the COVID-19 pandemic and potential labor strife next winter hanging over the sport, Tatis could also prefer to get some guaranteed financial security sooner rather than later.  On the flip side, Lin wonders if Tatis and his representatives would perhaps prefer to wait another year before seriously diving into extension talks, since by then there will be more clarity about both the state of public health and how baseball’s financial structure will be altered by a new collective bargaining agreement.

Since most extension negotiations usually don’t take place until later in the offseason, Preller’s more immediate attention will be focused on adding new pieces to the roster.  The GM said the club is continuing to explore pitching options, and has “looked at it both ways,” in terms of adding either front-of-the-rotation ace type or perhaps more of a mid-rotation type.

“I think it’s just kind of going to depend on the individual pitcher that’s involved, and then obviously, what potentially we’d have to do from a money standpoint or from a trade standpoint,” Preller said.  “Weighing that in versus what we see the impactability of our own talent and when that will happen.”

Dinelson Lamet’s status will also surely factor into San Diego’s plans, as the right-hander missed the end of the season (and the playoffs) due to biceps tightness, and was undergoing platelet-rich plasma therapy on his throwing elbow.  While Preller noted that the Padres won’t fully know how ready Lamet is until Spring Training, “in terms of the tests that he’s passing right now — all his workouts, picking up a baseball, beginning his throwing program to start the offseason — he’s reporting that he’s in a very similar spot to where he was last year, which is a good place,” Preller said.

Padres, Fernando Tatis Jr. Interested In Discussing Extension

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San Diego Padres GM A.J. Preller unsurprisingly expressed interest in signing superstar shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. to a long-term extension. Tatis has interest as well, though the two sides haven’t yet begun negotiations, per MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell. Preller did suggest that negotiations could kick off before too long, however.

There aren’t a ton of pertinent precedents for a potential Tatis extension, but there is one. Braves superstar centerfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. signed a 8-year, $100MM contract extension with the Braves after one season in the majors. Acuña was coming off a Rookie of the Year season in which he slashed .293/.366/.552 for 4.2 rWAR in his age-20 season.

Acuña’s deal is largely viewed as a bargain, and Tatis could arguably that he’s off to an even more impressive start to his MLB career. Tatis produced 4.1 rWAR over just 84 games as a 20-year-old in 2019. This year he provided an appropriate step up as he posted 2.5 rWAR, roughly the equivalent of 6.75 WAR over a full 162-game season. Through 143 career games, Tatis owns a triple slash of .301/.374/.582.

The two situations are analogous, however, as both Tatis and Acuña have led their teams back into the postseason at a young age. They’re also two of MLB’s brightest and most popular stars. Tatis now has more major league service time than Acuña did at the time of his deal, however, raising the price of any potential contract agreement. Tatis Jr. won’t be arbitration eligible until 2022, with free agency set for following the 2024 season. Both players debuted in their age-20 season, and both players field premium up-the-middle positions. Both Tatis and Acuña have also galvanized their fan bases during their short time in the majors.

There haven’t been many extensions signed this season league-wide, which is partially due to the revenue lost because of coronavirus and the uncertainty of future revenue streams. But there also hasn’t been a ton of time for these sorts of negotiations, notes Preller. As the playoffs wind to a close, teams may again have a moment to explore their internal options. The Padres would certainly love to extend Tatis Jr., but again, it would be rare for a player of his caliber to sign this early. Tatis Jr. is represented by MVP Sports Group, who also reps teammate Manny Machado.

GM Trade History: Padres’ A.J. Preller

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It’s not always fair to judge baseball operations leaders for free agent signings.  In many cases, the biggest contracts are negotiated to varying extents by ownership.  The same can hold true of major extensions.  It’s just tough to know from the outside.

There’s obviously involvement from above in trade scenarios as well.  But, when it comes to exchanging rights to some players for others, it stands to reason the role of the general manager is all the more clear.

In any event, for what it’s worth, it seemed an opportune moment to take a look back at the trade track records of some of the general managers around the game. We’ve already covered the Diamondbacks’ Mike Hazen, former Astros GM Jeff Luhnow, the Brewers’ David Stearns, the Angels’ Billy Eppler, the Rockies’ Jeff Bridich, the White Sox’ Rick Hahn, the Tigers’ Al Avila and the Braves’ Alex Anthopoulos. We’ll now turn our focus to the Padres’ A.J. Preller, whom the club hired late in the 2014 season. As you’ll see below, nobody can accuse Preller of sitting on his hands. Unfortunately for him and the Padres, the abundant trades Preller has swung haven’t yet led to any real progress in the standings for the long-suffering franchise (deals are in chronological order and exclude minor moves; full details at transaction link).

2014-15 Offseason

2015 Season

2015-16 Offseason

2016 Season

2016-17 Offseason

2017 Season

2017-18 Offseason

2018-19 Offseason

2019 Season

2019-20 Offseason

__

That’s a lot of action on the trade market, but has it been effective? (Poll link for app users)

Tatis: “Nothing Happening Out There Yet” On Contract Extension

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An extension with star shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. was reportedly one of the Padres’ offseason goals, though it doesn’t appear as if much progress has been made on that front.  In a radio interview on the Ben & Woods morning show (Twitter link), Tatis said he and his representatives at the MVP Sports Group would “talk about it if the Padres come with something, but there’s nothing happening out there yet.”

While Padres general manager A.J. Preller was “definitely not looking to comment publicly” on the status of negotiations during his own Ben & Woods interview (Twitter link), Preller indicated that the club did want to “explore every option and possibility” in terms of a potential long-term agreement with Tatis.  “We’ll sit down with him and his representatives when the time is right here, and kind of get a feel for where they’re at and see if there’s something there,” Preller said.

The fact that talks have seemingly yet to truly begin isn’t necessarily a sign that an extension couldn’t still happen before Opening Day or shortly into the season, as many teams don’t turn their attention to extension talks whatsoever until Spring Training.  Of course, there also isn’t any immediate urgency to get a deal done since Tatis is under team control through the 2024 season — the shortstop has two remaining years as a pre-arbitration player, and then three seasons of arbitration eligibility.

Gaining some additional control (not to mention cost certainty) over Tatis would certainly be of interest to the Padres, as Tatis has one of the brightest futures of any player in the sport.  The 21-year-old is coming off a rookie season that saw him hit .317/.379/.590 with 22 home runs over 372 plate appearances.  This was despite a pair of injured list stints due to a hamstring strain, and then a back strain that ended Tatis’ season in mid-August.

Should Tatis continue to perform at this high level over the next five years, he would be on track for free agency heading into his age-26 season and be in line for a monster payday on the open market, more than likely over the $400MM threshold.  San Diego knows a thing or two about spending big on a 26-year-old free agent, having just dropped $300MM on Manny Machado (another MVP Sports Group client, of note) last winter.  Locking up even one or two of Tatis’ free agent years as part of a long-term deal could end up being quite a bargain for the Padres, and by that same token, Tatis could be open to an extension that gives him financial security now, yet also doesn’t prevent him from free agency before his 30th birthday.

Some larger factors could also be at play, as The Athletic’s Dennis Lin (subscription required) raised the possibility that Tatis and other younger players might hold off on extensions “with the idea that the next collective bargaining agreement will change the structures of club control and free agency.”  The current CBA expires in December 2021, so assuming a new labor agreement is in place prior to the start of the 2022 season, Tatis would still have three years remaining as a Padre and potentially a new range of contractual options to consider from a negotiating perspective.  Perhaps as a nod to how a new CBA would impact the status quo, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reported yesterday that multiple teams were looking to lock up pre-arbitration players to extensions in the next few weeks.

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