The Yankees have checked in with the Padres regarding the trade candidacy of Juan Soto, reports Andy Martino of SNY. Those discussions, which Martino unsurprisingly categorizes as “preliminary,” should be one of many calls that San Diego receives on the superstar outfielder in the weeks and months to come.
Teams are still prohibited from making trades, although there was never any chance of the Padres making such a monumental move this early in the offseason anyhow. Clubs can identify and discuss early targets in preparation for the reopening of the trade window, which occurs the day after the end of the World Series.
Speculation about Soto’s availability has lingered back to before the trade deadline. The scuffling Padres elected to buy over the summer, hoping those additions would combine with improved play out of their existing roster to push them back into contention. San Diego didn’t start winning consistently until it was too late, never erasing the deficit and finishing two games behind the Diamondbacks.
The underwhelming place in the standings alone was always going to reignite chatter about Soto’s availability. Adding fuel to the fire were various late-season reports that the Friars hoped to cut back spending. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune pegged the target figure around $200MM, which would be nearly $50MM south of this past season’s level. Even if the Padres don’t slice payroll to that extent, it seems clear they will be more austere this winter than they have in the past couple offseasons.
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Soto for a $33MM salary next year, his final season of arbitration eligibility. That’d easily top the $30MM record which Shohei Ohtani established last winter for an arb-eligible player, making Soto the highest-paid player on the San Diego roster. Yet even that lofty figure is well below the open market value for one prime-aged season of a player who is among the game’s five best hitters.
The three-time All-Star overcame a relatively slow start to turn in a characteristically excellent season. Soto hit .275/.410/.519, popping 35 home runs while leading baseball with 132 walks. Among batters with 500+ plate appearances, he ranked third in on-base percentage and 11th in slugging.
Soto would be a massive upgrade for any team in baseball. While that’ll make him a popular target, it would also make trading him a massive decision for the Padres. San Diego is going to make another push to compete in 2024. Removing Soto from the equation makes that quite a bit harder, even if they’re able to reallocate some of that payroll room into addressing a mediocre bottom of the lineup and/or filling a rotation that could lose each of Blake Snell, Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo to free agency.
Even if the Padres were fully determined to cut player spending to the $200MM range, they don’t have to trade Soto to make that happen. If Wacha, Lugo and Nick Martinez each hit free agency, the Friars would have around $127MM in salary commitments for next season. That doesn’t include Soto’s arbitration projection, which would push them near $160MM. Arbitration projections for Trent Grisham and Scott Barlow would nudge them past $170MM.
That may not leave a ton of space in the budget for free agent acquisitions — and they’ll certainly need to address the rotation in some form — but it doesn’t force their hand on a Soto trade specifically. Any of Grisham, Barlow or Ha-Seong Kim would have appeal if the Padres were to consider marketing them instead.
Martino suggests that Soto could be available if another team puts forth an appropriate offer, indicating the 25-year-old is not categorically untouchable. That aligns with comments from president of baseball operations A.J. Preller at the start of the offseason. At season’s end, Preller told reporters the organization would reengage Soto’s representation at the Boras Corporation about a potential extension (link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). Asked about the possibility of a trade if they can’t work out a long-term deal, San Diego’s baseball ops leader noted they’ve “never been a group that (rules out) anything” before reiterating that their “first path” would be a chat with Soto’s camp about a contract.
If the Padres get to a point this offseason in which they’re seriously entertaining a Soto blockbuster, the Yankees are one of a number of teams that could be involved. New York is as good a fit as any given their willingness to spend at the top of the league and a need to address left field. Every team with payroll room would have room on the roster for Soto, although only teams with a legitimate path to contention in 2024 are plausible suitors to top the trade market for a player one year from free agency. The Yankees are the first of many teams that are likely to be mentioned in Soto rumors during the offseason.
Stanton for Soto. Love it.
And Boone too?
Yankees don’t have that much to give up in their minors. I can’t see how they swing this trade.
@MannyL- They don’t? The Padres obviously think so. Maybe you are wrong here? Smh. Hmmmmm…
Soto only has one year remaining on his contract. He won’t get a crazy return in trade for the Padres.
The Padres think so? Based in a report that says the Yankees have checked in? That’s quite a stretch.
Lol
People tried to say that about Betts. How did that work out?
Judge Judy, Get off the estrogen pills and you will be less sensitive.
Throw in Clint Frazier, Deivi Garcia and Everson Pereira and we might have a deal?
Wow, another comedian on here. Just what’s needed. Eye roll.
Stanton plays for the IL
I would never do that deal ! One year of Soto for what, 3 or 4 years of Stanton ? No way, José. What a rip. Would you rather have one Big Mac now, or 3 or 4 Big Mac’s next week? Yeah, that’s what I thought.
Why would the Padres want Stanton especially if they move Soto to save $$$$?
Seems that they would be looking for younger, cost controlled players and top prospects for OF Starting pitcher etc
SF
Why do people automatically assume the person that they are responding to is an idiot instead of considering the possibility that they, themselves, are doing something foolish – like taking a joke as something sincere?
I assume nothing.
I take comments @ “face value”.
When people are joking around on Social Media or these kind of forums, then he/she will give the audience some indication of that like put a lol! in the post.
I didn’t see that here
That said,
And as professors, good parents, smart businesspersons etc
say ‘there is no such thing as a stupid question or suggestion”,
since many of the best ideas come from, are inspired by or triggered by people “brainstorming ideas”.
The Stanton suggestion, actually, could have merit for the Padres
because they are looking for an upgrade @ 1b/DH with thump in his bat.
The key would be if the Yankees wanted to eat some or half of Stanton’s salary and put other players (major league ready pitching) in the proposed deal that could help the Padres win in ’24.
Maybe the Padres and the warm weather could rejuvenate Stanton’s career? Maybe the Padres look at Stanton’s hitting film and see something he could change to get his full hitting mojo back?!
Dunno.
But, if so, a smart POB or GM might take a flyer on him if NY pays half his contract for the duration every year.
Stanton is from LA and would accept a deal back to the West Coast.
Soto spent most of his career in DC so a trade to NYC might give the Yankees the inside track on resigning him if Soto likes playing in NYC.
> When people are joking around on Social
> Media or these kind of forums, then
> he/she will give the audience some
> indication of that like put a lol! in the post.
Please explain what you mean. Include a few brief passages about how this makes you feel and any purported sociological impacts on modern communication. Use supporting evidence when appropriate to document any conclusions that you plan to make.
Thank you.
SF
“I assume nothing.
I take comments @ “face value”.”
So you assume that comments are made at face value.
Got it
As for the rest of your comment, sure.
You’re allowed to actually be smart and infer things from context. Making reasonable assumptions, such as that a Stanton-for-Soto trade suggestion is not serious, is not a mistake.
Open Mike Comedy night is on Wednesdays.
All Yankee Mega-Deals must begin with Greg Bird and Miguel “Rookie of the Year Runner Up” Andujar.
This is the way.
Stanton is Juan Gonzalez 2.0
Soto is Juan Gonzalez 3.0
These are not winning baseball players. The Yankees would be better off keeping their prospects and signing some cultural guys like Kiermaier and Merrifield.
Soto literally won a world series lol, something Kiermaier or Merrifield have yet to do.
He was a key contributor to a winning culture before he started getting paid. Lets face it, few players give us the stats AND presence worthy of huge money. You know the Scherzer, Harper, Jeter, Schilling types.
Players in the mold of Soto, Judge, and Stanton are worth 3/75 guaranteed with escalators based on plate appearances that could bring it up to 3/90. They are enlisted bangers. Not commissioned leaders.
@TheTrotsky- The Yankees truly desire neither. Thinking those players go elsewhere truthfully.
EJemp, Scherzer is not a leader? He was the highest ranked current player in MLBPA. I’d say players across the league view him as a leader
Carefully read the comment again…
This+
Soto played 162 games and put up 5.6 WAR this season. His value was over $50 million. He won’t get paid that much because teams are looking for surplus value at the beginning of the long term contract he will command, but that was his value in 2023. At just 24 years old, its doubtful his annual value drops much for a decade.
Soto will likely get a 14/504 deal if he makes it to FA. Possibly more. Getting an AAV of $40 million like Judge is not out of the question.
Prime Jays target…. but the ask would likely be too much
Negotiations begin with Vlad, Tiedemann and add more to that.
Its for just one year.of Soto. Lower your sights.
If you think Vlad and Tiedemann for Soto is too high I would strongly suggest you check it again.
Would I do it if I were the Jays? No. Lower sights? Unfortunately no.
For 1 yesr of Soto? You need to check it again.
Ricky Tiedemann is worth more than one season of soto according to BTV. Which player evaluation site are you using?
So I’m conclusion, no the trade wouldn’t start with Tiedemann and Vlad because the jays would be giving too much up.
He’s used to be being wrong.
BTV is not worth even looking at.
Here is what IS worth looking at. What the Dodgers gave up to get Betts. Then take into account that the Dodgers also paid $48 million of Price’s contract. That is your comp for any trade for Soto.
The Padres would ask for Tiedmann as a headliner of a deal. It would also have to include at least 1 other top 100 prospect plus a 45-50 FV prospect that is MLB ready or very close to ready that plays a position that the Padres are in need of. Since the only other top 100 prospect in the Jays system is Martinez, he would be likely to be included. Not sure who would fit the bill as a 45-50 FV prospect that is MLB ready.
Not sure that would be enough because of the dearth of hitters on the market this offseason.
Vlad would not be included at all because of his salary.
BTV is worth looking at it because many mlb executives use it as a starting model.
What they don’t do is ask someone random biased padres fan. Referring to some trade years ago that has zero relevance on the current market today. The betts trade has as much relevance on the current market as Griffeys trade to the reds.
You just gotta laugh at these clowns who their there player evaluations on spot on with every player, then when the guy is traded for far less than what they think, they scream and stomp their feet insulting the gm yelling that he got fleeced.
iverbure
“You just gotta laugh at these clowns who their there player evaluations on spot on with every player”
Agree with most of what you said, except
EVERYONE (including teams, individual members of front offices, scouts, websites, etc) is going to value players differently. No one knows how any player is going to perform in the future.
It’s totally fair for a fan to have a different opinion than BTV.
It’s very unlikely that that fan is more informed than BTV (or any of those other entities), though. And most fans would be well-served to remember that they have much less information than the people they are disagreeing with. And also well-served to reflect on how many times they’ve been wrong in the past.
Yankees
Juan Soto
Padres
Everson Pereira
T.J. Rumfield
Will Warren
Not even close to enough I don’t think.
@vtadave
Could you elaborate on your opinion as to why it isn’t a decent trade?
I’ll take a stab at it
If padres are going to unload Soto
1. It’ll have to start with Dominguez
2. Tj Rumsfield isn’t listed in Yankees top 30 prospects according to mlb.com
3. It’ll take a couple more 2nd tier / 3rd tier players.
Starts with Dominguez, Warren, add 2 or 3 more names somewhere in the 10-30 range.
@oldyork – Guy below me nailed it before I could jump back in. Rumfeld is a 23 yo 1B who hit .219 in AA and has shown no signs of being a viable regular corner infielder in the big leagues.
Warren is 24 and a decent prospect, but I imagine SD would rather have Hampton.
Pereira – nice chip obviously, but imagine SD would prefer Dominguez
@vtadave
Thanks for the rational reply. Again, I’m just a random internet user so I have no control over trades.
Any trade for Soto would have to involve Dominguez I’d imagine
With Dominguez out with a TJ injury, it’s doubtful he would be traded.
Not necessarily. TJ surgery for a hitter could still have him in the lineup by june
Yes Joe, the Padres are higher on Spencer Jones then Dominguez anyway. With no extension from Soto, the Yankees wouldn’t be given up either one anyway.
Craven, you are 100% wrong. Soto is a 1 year rental. Dominguez won’t even be talked about in that deal.
Smoking something good if you think a 1 year rental if anyone is getting Dominguez
OnlineFeatures, I am 100% right.
And to answer your question I smoke the finest Sour Diesel in the northeast brah.
@OnlineFeatures, you forget who the Yankees GM is.
It will take more than the Dodgers gave up for Betts. Why more? Price’s $48 million in salary.
Why would it take more than what Betts returned? Betts is a better player. He can run, and play defense, in addition to his bat! Soto is a barely adequate OF, and slow. Adam Dunn 2.0. If you prefer, he’s Schwarber with a batting average.
Because of many factors including: changing market, Red Sox and Chaim Bloom made a bad deal, articles criticizing Bloom’s trades and failure to trade( one team offered to take all of Sale’s contract and also give young players back. Chaim said no. A few weeks later Sale is in a bicycle accident, Mookie’s chances of extending his contract in LA
made his trade value even higher and more.
It was the Red Sox ownership and Front Office fault they got such a low return on Betts etc,
Dombrowski would not have been cheated on a Betts trade.
AND MUCH MORE.
Red Sox belief that they can hire any interchangeable part(s) for the Front Office and still get the same results has been prove to be a major misjudgment.
Where you like guys like Dombrowski or not, he usually wins his trads and gets maximum value in return or he does not do the deal.
It is not all on Chaim Bloom.
Too many cooks in the Ownership Group and Front Office
and no 1 decisive voice has lead to a lot of problems for the Red Sox…Worrying about the luxury tax is on Henry and Sam Kennedy and that lowered the return in the deal because Dodgers knew they had Boston over a barrel
The stats guys and many around baseball are calling Soto a future Hall of Famer just on his hitting and stats (if he can maintain consistently high stats for the next 10 or 15 years,.
stymee
Dunn had one 4.9 bWAR season then a few seasons between 2 and 3 bWAR
Soto already has 4 seasons better than Dunn’s 1 outlier season
Doesn’t seem like a great comparison.
i mean tbh Schwarber with a batting average sounds rather excellent, even if the comparison is absolutely disingenuous. You’re boldly ignoring that Schwarber’s career OBP is 80 points lower than Soto’s career, Schwarb’s career slugging is 30 percentage points lower than Soto’s career, and of course the obvious difference of Schwarber being nearly 6 years older than Soto. But even without those obvious, impossible-to-overlook-unless-you’re-intentionally-cherrypicking-to-make-a-weak-point-stronger points of difference, i reiterate that Schwarber with a batting average sounds excellent.
los_leebos
Spot on!
Because the dodgers took on price’s salary bringing down the trade value of betts.
Juan Soto still had a 5.6 war season and lifetime. 284/.421/.525 hitter.
Soto is also 24
At time of the trade Betts was 26 and hit .301/.371/.519
Betts might be better defensive. But Soto is better offensively.
NS4L
Soto had a 154 wRC+ and 5.5 fWAR last year
Betts had a 135 wRC+ 6.4 fWAR season before the trade
I don’t see much of an argument that Betts isn’t the better player.
There are a lot of ways to structure a deal to facilitate an agreement
At the time of the trade Price was still an over a K per inning pitcher. So he added value to the trade.
At the time of the trade Price had opted out of 2020 because of COVID and was coming off an injury filled 2019 season where he only threw 107 innings with a 4.28 ERA. He did not add value to the trade.
The Soto hate is from ignorant baseball fans who are still defending batting average as the most important baseball stat. The guy is a lock for the HOF or at least the best lock for the HOF as a 25 year old can be.
Price wasn’t adding any value to the trade. If he was the Redsox wouldn’t have paid to get rid of him.
@Pads Fans the trade took place Feb 10th 2020, Covid had yet to really hit and Price had yet to opt out. Yes he was coming off a down year for what he usually provided. However he still pitched over 100 innings and was avg over a K per inning. So yes he added value at the time the trade happened.
At the time of the Betts/Price trade Dombrowski had been fired that Sept. They were trading Betts, they were clearly in rebuild mode. And teams trade players all the time and eat cost, that does not mean they no longer provide value. Under that school of thought you are saying Arrenado added no value to STL when traded as COL ate some salary.
RE: iver and Tigers
I wish we had more nuanced discussion. Not only in sports but in more important matters. It seems many people can only different players into two groups – bums and GOATS.
Maybe if we started looking at sports with a bit more nuance, that would carry over into other facets of life
:Looks wistfully into the distance:
Anyway
Explicitly separating a player’s performance and cost would be helpful, I think
Price still seemed to have onfield value at the time of the trade. That value was almost certainly exceed by his cost.
I think most people get this, but it doesn’t come across in discussion which lowers the level of discussion
Well said filihok
It would have to start with Volpe.
wss
“It would have to start with Volpe.”
BTV has Volpe’s value at $75 million
And Soto’s at $22 million
So, probably doesn’t start with Volpe
I’d give up Volpe in a deal, but not Dominguez, but I wouldn’t do any deal for a rental, I’d wait and see how things shake out after the 2024 season and see if we can fit him into our salary structure. The other concern is a 14 year deal, not sure if I’m the Yankees that giving out that kind of deal is a way I’d want to go. I know he’ll get it and would be a plus but man haven’t we felt the pinch with Stantons contract!! As we will eventually will with Judges. Anyway the guy could be a big plus, imagine him, Judge and Dominguez in the outfield and batting like 2, 3 and 4, with Torres, hopefully a healthy Rizzo and DJ.
@GP John You can’t take any prospect off the table if you want Soto.
If Soto signs an extension lst, before the trade, the main prospect traded would have to be Spencer Jones. The Padres would have an interest in Gleyber Torres, Clarke Schmidt, Everson Pereira and Will Warren as well. The Yankees would likely have to provide a list to San Diego prior to a Juan Soto trade.
No Dominguez, no trade.
Also, if Soto were willing to sign an extension before the trade (which he won’t) there would BE no trade because he would be extending with the Padres.
Hypothetically, it Soto signs an extension without trade protection, the value going to SD increases big-time just because both Boston and the Yankees are players for the first time in years (not to name other clubs).
Boros. Soto’s agent, usually, does not do extensions before free agency.
Because players who hire Boras want the most money offered.
@Ringworm Jr. According to the Padres, no Spencer Jones then probably no trade. If no Juan Soto extension, then probably no trade with the Yankees. $40-45 million a year, for the next 12 years should get it done-if not-then no trade with the Yankees. Yanks are not giving up Mr. Jones for a rental. Keep dreaming.
@Captain Judge If you really need an extension just wait until he’s a FA.
@dewey Not at the dollar figure it would take to extend him.
Soto just built a home next door to Machado in Coronado. If he signs an extension, it will be in with the Padres. Otherwise he is going to FA.
Jones alone is not close to enough for Soto. Think about what it took to get Betts in trade. That is your comp for Soto.
Without Volpe as the headliner the deal is not even a possibility. Since Dominguez is out with TJ surgery he is probably off the table, so that would mean Jones added to the deal. Remember, even though Jones is the YANKEES #1 prospect, he is barely in the top 100. Then add another couple of mid-level prospects like Warren that are close to MLB ready.
THAT is what it would take to get the deal done. Would that be worth it for the Yankees? It would probably hurt their major league squad so I doubt it.
Would the Yankees prefer less years and higher AAV or more years and less AAV. 14/504 or more is likely if he hits FA.
Yes, because Boros wants to set the market at a higher level for all his clients and tries to auction off his free agent clients for the highest, maximum value in terms of average annual value, years, total value of the contract for the player and more.
Sometimes, Boros “overshoots the market” and some of his draft pick players have had to sit out another year and come back to the draft for a 2nd go around.
Great for the players.
At times, not great for the team, its budget, the fans and long term contention of the team if it gets saddled with too many long term contracts and needs to tear it all down for a rebuild because it is loaded with untradeable contracts and players: examples: Phillies, Detroit Tigers where bad contracts delayed and extended their teardowns and rebuilds
@CravenMoorehead
So, a 1 year rental should bring over Dominguez? I think you’re overvaluing Soto.
@Old York What percent of prospects actually make it?
One word, Betts,
17% of Top 100 prospects become a league average, about 2.0 WAR, player in their career. About 3% put up a single season of 4.0 WAR or higher in their career.
Round them off, 1 in 5 and 1 in 25 that are in the top 100.
Dominguez is at the back end of the top 100 and he has TJ surgery and won’t play most of next season.
Hahaha
almost comical
OY
Per MLBTV (all caveats apply)
Soto TV: $23 million
Pereira TV: $18 million
Rumfield TV $2 million
Warren TV $5 million
TOTAL TV $25 million
So, a pretty fair trade. Now, of course, the Padres might value those players differently. They might want other types of players or players that are more or less major league ready. They’ll have to put in the best offer. Etc…
That is lowball offer for Soto!
SF
Provide your reasoning.for that statement.
BTV has an excellent track record of valuing players true to how they are traded. The majority of the time, the values end up being within a few million dollars on each side.
The floor is yours to support your assertion.
A potential Soto deal is a developing situation, a very fluid situation
that would be an ‘auction” with maybe a dozen teams or more involved.
That means, the price of acquiring Soto will be rising.
Any team trading for Soto would have to “overpay” or Preller/Padres would not do the deal These potential blockbuster types of deals, oftentimes, involve one side “overpaying” the other side because the player they want they see as the missing piece that vaults them into the playoffs and/or strong contention for the World Series.
Running this through just a straight “trade value” model will not give you the entire story, analysis, behind the scenes goings on, teams and front offices motivations, fan considerations, spikes in revenues for upswings in attendance for fans whose expectations have been raised etc..
The Padres, with all their moves (and I disagreed with some of them) had attendance of over 3,000,000 last season, even missing the playoffs, because of all the stars added to the roster and increased expectations.
Even Tampa, Baltimore, Cleveland, Seattle would have interest
if they thought Soto was the piece that might help them get to the World Series and, possibly, win it.
Have seen stories that the Mets have interest and they have the young players in the majors and on the farm to put forward a very competitive, serious proposal for Soto.
There are others.
Every team within a stones throw of the playoffs in 2024 will have these Front Office discussions about Soto.
So, some team will pay maximum value and much more than what the Dodgers paid for Mookie Betts.
The Red Sox accepted a low ball deal for Betts.
They, apparently, were more interested in dumping salary
then getting better players in return.
So, I don’t see that trade as controlling on the worth of Soto.
BTV??
My record on these kinds of baseball issues has been that I have been on the right side of these issues a lot more than not.
It is not a competition on these forums, but just saying.
The Padres are in the same position as Boston, needing to dump salary. Other teams know this. Boston took the best offer, whether you think it was low ball or not. The best offer was not what you think it should have been. They traded ONE YEAR of Betts. Betts is the better player. Cleveland won’t even call on Soto, as he’s too expensive for them. The Mets won’t be trading the farm, as their plan is to build from the farm. Baltimore has hitting, they need pitching. You may be right more often than not, but don’t put this in the win column, yet.
SF
“, I don’t see that trade as controlling on the worth of Soto.”
This statement shows that you’ve missed the point
The Betts trade has almost nothing to do with a potential Soto trade.
Player value and cost is what is measured.
BTV (Baseball Trade Values) has a solid method and excellent track record of measuring those things (including adding in some off-field considerations.
Seidler said the Padres do not have to cut payroll. In fact, he said that 2024 payroll would be around the same level as 2023. Seidler owns the team. Seidler cuts the checks. So why do I keep seeing people trying to claim that they HAVE to dump salary?
Betts was a better player, no doubt, but they also dumped $48 million in Price’s salary and they got a huge haul. A top 35 prospect that had put up a 3.0 WAR in 106 games as a CF, another top prospect that was ranked 44th, and a 50 FV catcher that was MLB ready.
That offseason there were also a ton of great FA hitters in that market. mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/mlb-free-agent-predicti…
This season there is Ohtani. That’s it.
So Soto brings back what Betts did as a minimum and likely more.
BTV is garbage. Not once has it been close to accurate in measuring actual trades. Not once. So STOP mentioning it.
What matters is the comps. The only real one is Betts
It is only 1 indicator of how decisions are made in trade.
Just like analytics are one indicator, taken with many others, in evaluating players, game decisions, strategy etc.
I disagree with some of the methodology used.
Machado is rated -108?~!
Bogaerts is rated -49.5?!
Juan Soto is rated +22.9?!
SF
“It is only 1 indicator of how decisions are made in trade.”.
Sure
“I disagree with some of the methodology used.
Machado is rated -108?~!
Bogaerts is rated -49.5?!
Juan Soto is rated +22.9?!”
It appears that you don’t understand what “methodology” is
I know this is nitpicking, but the concept permeates my discipline (yes I have a day job) and drives me a little crazy. The very term “methodology” is fairly nonsensical as it literally means ‘the study of methods’. It has become accepted to use (or misuse) it more broadly than that however to infer some sort of system of researching or assessing or analyzing a body of work.
But in most cases, consider just using the word “methods” which usually serves the purpose.
Now don’t get me started on the term “analytics”!
Your record? Lol according to who you? That seems really biased.
Upswing in revenues? Ummm isn’t there like 10 teams with their Tv revenue in flux? If anything they’re probably going to be less teams looking to acquire short term expensive assets .
Ha!
It appears that you have nothing substantial to say for a counter argument, so you are trying to change the subject. I discussed the methodology in my prior comments, see above.
A methodology is a system of methods and principles for doing something, for example for teaching or for carrying out research.
Methodologies vary according to the topic.
In their own work they may have favored the use of methodology different from mine.
(Also see: practice, style, approach, technique).
SF
“It appears that you have nothing substantial to say for a counter argument”
No. I don’t
Because you didn’t make an argument.
What is it about their “methodology” that you disagree with?
If you stated it before, I didn’t see it.
The Mets spent a ton on older free agents with higher AAVs so they could sign them to short term deals. They opted to spend to maintain their farm system. Now after tearing it down you are proposing they’d be interested in trading from farm system to aquire a rental player? Explain how that makes any sense whatsoever from a Mets perspective??
Remember when you thought the padres weren’t cutting payroll?
The Padres TV revenue is no longer in flux. They have new contracts with all the carriers like Cox, Spectrum, DIRECTV, etc… individually and did within one day of DSG defaulting on their payment and in essence shuttering Bally’s SD.
They also are selling single team packages on MLB.tv. By the end of he season they had sold 250-285k depending on what sports business source you prefer to quote.
The Padres attendance was up 3507 per game from 2022 and 11000 from pre-COVID numbers.
Sponsorship revenues are up 200% from pre-COVID numbers for the team.
The Padres are now a net payer into the revenue sharing in baseball. As long as I have been a fan they received money from the other teams and also were one of 7 teams each season that got an extra draft pick.
Revenue is definitely up for the Padres.
They aren’t. Greupner verified that in the article about the loan. He said they had the financial resources to continue at the same level.
As as Dave Dombrowski says: prospects are all just prospects until they prove otherwise.
It appears you don’t understand what either methodology or how analysis is used by Front offices in rating and judging prospects and players.
They don’t just plug it into the computer.
It is much more involved than that
TV values are often flawed.
They undervalue some players who are already top, established big leaguers and then over rate some minor leaguers who have never even had a cup of coffee in the majors.
Argument was made. You just either don’t agree with it or don’t understand it. or It just does not match up with your thinking process, which is OK because everyone is different.
Dombrowksi has regularly found himself in much better situations than most GMs. He has not had to worry about developing prospects as he’s pretty much always been operating with an open checkbook and in situations where the Farm System is far from a priority.
That would be like Jeff Bezos saying “it’s only $”. It’s easier to make such statements when you don’t have to worry about them like most.
SF0000
“As Dave Dombrowski says: prospects are all just prospects until they prove otherwise”.
That’s a dumb thing to say
No player’s future is guaranteed
Any veteran can fall off a cliff at any time.
Not even in the ballpark. The Padres ask starts with Volpe. Then add Jones or Dominguez. Then add Warren or Mayea.
Before you even try to say that is too much, look at what the Dodgers gave up for 1 year of Betts while taking on $48 million in salary for Price.
So the Padres are still collecting shortstops? Why?
Shortstops are the best athletes on the field generally. What percentage of SS prospects ended up being a CF or 2B, or 3B in the majors. The % is staggering.
For fili below Why in the world would anyone look at BTV? Not once have they been even close to what it took to make an actual trade for a star player. Not even once.
Short stops can play anywhere. Many of them also pitched in HS or college.
Usually, the best athlete on the team and the entire package of player skills.
@SportsFan0000 Exactly! Which is why the people saying A. J. Preller would have never traded for Fernando Tatis Jr. if he hadn’t traded Trea Turner away first are stupid.
wss
“The Padres ask starts with Volpe. Then add Jones or Dominguez. Then add Warren or Mayea.”
That’s seems, uh, high
“Before you even try to say that is too much, look at what the Dodgers gave up for 1 year of Betts while taking on $48 million in salary for Price.”
Ok. Let’s look at that
baseballtradevalues.com/why-were-high-on-mookie-be…
Now, look at that BTV says about your proposal
There is ZERO chance that the offer for Soto would just “start” with a package of Volpe-Dominguez-Warren. Lol! Seems like a lot of the SDP fans on here like Soto and they don’t want to see him traded or even talked about possibly being moved. I mean that’s the only way comments like WSS’s would make sense. Unless Soto signs a long-term extension with SD he’s more than likely going to hit Free Agency. And if SD does decide to move him, the return they get for a “rental Soto” is definitely not going to involve a combo of player’s along the likes of a Volpe-Dominguez-Warren. Not even close
RShore
“ZERO chance
…
definitely”
I’d be careful using such absolutes. Especially when trying to predict someone else’s behavior
I agree that it’s exceedingly unlikely.
The article about it in the Athletic said that since none of the other Yankees prospects are considered elite prospects that the Yankees would have to part with a controllable talent off their major league roster. Volpe is the only player that fits that description.
They also mentioned the Dodgers trade for Betts as the best comp for a trade for Soto, although they didn’t bring up how the $48 million they paid for Price affected the trade return for the Red Sox.
Dominguez is out for most of 2024 so he could not be a headliner even for a lesser player than Soto.
So yes, a trade by the Yankees for Soto would start with Volpe and include other prospects.
None of those are even top 50 prospects. The Yankees don’t have any top 50 prospects. They don’t have enough to pull that trade.
@MannyL- Ok, just as long as your sure? It’s funny the Padres seem to think the Yankees have enough in regards to a Soto trade, but you not so much.
The GM of the Padres never even spoke to the Yankees, so apparently whatever was brought up in that call was not enough to even get Preller on the phone.
If the Padres thought that the Yankees were offering enough, the GM would have been involved in the conversation.
Isn’t there supposed to be a lol somewhere? Scroll up if confused!
Yankees prospects have been “over hyped” and “over sold”.
S lot of Yankees prospects traded in past deals did not live up to the high billing given them by the NYY and NY Media.
Can’t blame them for trying to get maximum return for their players.
But, it has cost the Yankees and Cashman in trades where there offers were the losing bid on many key trades that could have helped their ballclub.
SF
Please provide evidence that Yankees prospects systematically underperform. You know, the information that led you to believe that “Yankees prospects have been “over hyped” and “over sold”.”
Otherwise, it’s more likely that it’s your bias that leads you to believe that.
Anecdotes are not sufficient.
If you only listen to NY based evaluations, that is a form of bias.
From 2013 to 2022, only 3 prospects of the 68 different prospects that were in the MLB Pipeline list of Yankees top 10 prospects in any of those seasons have put up more than 1 league average or better season, Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres and Gary Sanchez. Miguel Andujar had one season.
Only 3 teams have had fewer prospects make it during that period. MLB average over that period was 9.1%. Than Yankees were at 4.4%.
By way of comparison, 9 Padres of the 64 different prospects in their top 10 in that period have gone on to post 2 league average or above seasons. Roughly 14%. Another 7 have had at least one league average season
Not sure that those stats back up your assertion that Yankees prospects have been over hyped or over sold, but they certainly have not made much of an impact at the major league level.
There are many examples.
But, since I work for a living, I will give you just one:
Sonny Grey to Yankees for James Kaprellian, Jorge Mateo and Dustin Fowler. Fowler got injured and has been a bust. Jorge Mateo looking like a bust also.
Karprellian has had injuries, surgeries and his still stuggling to establish himself as a good major league starter years later.
Sonny Grey was one of the best starters in the AL when traded to NY,
He had one good year, then had trouble pitching in NY and was dealt again. He is a solid mid rotation or better MLB starter,.
Where’s the Captain? Bet he’s got a woody just thinking about Soto in pinstripes. With that short porch in right & this being his walk year, Soto could pop maybe 50.
But… can he pitch?
Fair point. They need pitching.
Their new plan is to win games 15-14.
@rememberthecoop, they need hitting too. This is just a bad team al around.
Yes, the Yankees are Pirates-horrible as far as hitting. Smh
Hitting as in guys who hit to all fields. Not another homerun or nothing guy like Soto
Does it make them better? Probably. Will it make that much more of an impact? Probably not besides tying up more money
No, and he can’t field either.
Screw pitching, can he GM?
Even though Soto will only have 1 year left, Preller will be asking a lot for that one season of his services. He’ll want a team’s Top 3-5 prospect and either a youngster who is ready to play/pitch in the majors right now or perhaps another Top 15-20 team prospect if that nets him better talent. Are the Yankees willing to give that young talent up and will their offer be sufficient enough for San Diego to pull the trigger? San Diego is trying to shed significant payroll, so including Torres would most likely be a non-starter for the Padres.
There’s not a lot better on the open market…
The Padres will be asking for a player that put up a 3+ WAR in his rookie season and was a top 35 or better prospect. Plus another top 50 prospect. Plus another MLB ready player that was in the top half of the team’s top 30. Plus a lottery pick.
How do I know? That is what it took to get Betts and the Dodgers also took on $48 million in salary for Price.
At the time of the trade Price was 33 and still had value. The wheels really don’t fall of til after he came back from opting out during 2020.
Being a Sox fan, Price was cooked as a starter. His attitude also made it difficult on the Sox The Dodgers took him to ensure they got Better.
The Padres will be asking for a player that put up a 3+ WAR in his rookie season and was a top 35 or better prospect. Plus another top 50 prospect. Plus another MLB ready player that was in the top half of the team’s top 30. Plus a lottery pick.
===========================
They won get half of that.
At the time of the trade Price was coming off a injury plagued seasons in his last 3 seasons, the last of which he put up an ERA over 4.
@rememberthecoop- Of course, but there a lot of teams that Juan Soto could be traded to. Obviously the list of prospects gets better for San Diego, if Soto signs an extension prior to any trade. In that case Spencer Jones, Casey Hampton or Drew Thorpe would be the highlight of any trade with the Yankees for Mr. Soto.
Not even close. Any trade with the Yankees starts with Volpe. Then one of Jones or Dominguez. Then a couple more prospects.
@websoulsurfer- That’s not happening at all. If no extension signed with the Yankees, then no trade with the Yankees. The Yankees might consider trading Gleyber, Schmidt, and Pereira in a trade for Soto with no extension. Nothing more then that though. No extension, then no haul of major talent. The Friars will have to look elsewhere then.
Soto isn’t signing an extension and at the dollar figure it would take it is honestly odd to see so many Yankees fans acting like it’s the key to the deal or gives them so much more surplus value when in reality I’d be shocked if that’s the case.
Any trade with the Yankees starts with Volpe. Then one of Jones or Dominguez. Then a couple more prospects.
=========================
No. No one hates the Yankees more than me, but no one on the Padres is worth Volpe.
@JoeBrady What about Tatis?
Soto is a Boras client, it’s almost a certainty at this point that he ll test free agency. The off chance he were to sign an extension early, it would definitely have some type of no trade clause and likely a full one.
There’s no chance of an extension if Soto has gone year-to-year this far. He’ll top the $30MM Ohtani made in his final arb year last season. In any free agency deal, there will be a NTC and at least one opt-out.
This should be juicy over under 20 games in NY before he turns on the media and fans for booing him. A Primadonna like Soto and Trash NY fans should be a recipe for chaos
Says the genius who can’t spell MISSISSIPPI.
Phonetically sounds similar. Too lazy to correct to original to care
Maybe it sounds similar to you, but not if it’s correctly pronounced.
I’ll give you an “o” on “too original” because I like your style.
Hey wait! He has to buy a vowel.
Maybe they removed one “ss” after ww2 and added the 3ks? But, that state had 3ks well before ww2
It’s probably only his sixth or so username he uses on here anyway.
son of a gun that’s close it’s my 3rd username act
I’ve never seen a player that relishes the spotlight quite like Soto tho.
For Yankees Spotlight Relishing Please See:
Rodriguez, Alex
Perfect fit for those guys. Just have to hand over quite a few prospects, and then Boras really has them over a barrel.
Will take more than prospects. Padres will want major league ready or already in the majors young, cost controlled talent that can play right away.
Who do the Yankees have to trade for Soto? I know nothing about their farm system
A bunch of overhyped players that they will never develop!!
dave – Yankees have a tremendous prospect that’s put up a .922 OPS in 306 AAA games, I think the Padres might be able to pry him away.
Name is Cordero …. Franchy Cordero.
That’s 2023 one time cleanup hitter Franchy Cordero
I’m fairly certain he was misused and should’ve been the leadoff hitter. Nothing SD can’t fix.
Poor Frenchy…any one of us would still dream for his opportunities.
Franchy.
Frenchy Franchy. Potato potahto.
Jon – You never saw The Conjuring or The Nun?
@davengmusic- the Yankees have the pieces that the Padres would want for Soto. The big question is will the Yankees given a 72 hour window to negotiate an extension with Soto lst prior to a trade? The pieces for the Pods obviously get a lot better with an extension for Mr. Soto. The Yankees will not be giving up 2 or 3 of their top prospects for a rental. Not happening.
If Soto were to sign an extension it would be with the Padres. I doubt they give the Yankees any “window.”
@Captain, teams are not allowed a window prior to a trade to sign an extension. So that’s a hard no there. And even if they were(which they’re not), there is zero leverage for Soto to even entertain such a thing.
The official start to the Hot Stove League…..The Yanks are in on everyone!
Roberto – Even Donaldson?
Ok, almost everybody!!
Can he pitch? Yankees can get one superstar homerun hitter after another, but if they don’t fix their pitching and only hit bombs as opposed to hitting the whole field, they aren’t going anywhere.
Their pitching all year wasn’t the issue. The Yankees still have plenty of depth there even if German and Montas are gone.
It was mostly injuries. But scoring runs isn’t going to fix the problem
JD
I’m confused about how baseball works
I thought that you won by having more runs than your opponent. And it seems that you can do that in two ways (which is actually the same way).
1) Scoring more than your opponent
2) Having your opponent score less than you.
Unless you’re the d-backs. Won a pennant yet were out scored over 162 games by their opponents.
RJN
Hmm
Let’s compare two teams
Team A: 3.77 ERA (95 ERA-), 3.98 FIP (96 FIP-), 4.01 xFIP, (96 xFIP-)
Team B: 4.37 ERA (104 ERA-), 4.34 FIP (107 FIP-), 4.34 xFIP (104 xFIP-)
Hmm….one seems obviously better
How about this?
Team A: .324 OBP, .155 ISO, 105 wRC+
Team B: .313 OBP, .157 ISO, 95 wRC+
Again, one team seems clearly better
Team A is the Padres
Team B is the DBacks
The narratives around these teams are misleading. The Padres were better this season.
You can be a stats darling. But if you can’t put opponents away in one run contests, you’re going nowhere.
Clearly better? That’s a stretch. Your stats have a baseline of 100 on some and a minor swing each way isn’t a big difference. They are close and that’s exactly what you saw in the standings. Didnt SD only miss out by a couple of games?
Your narrative of SD being clearly better is false. And that’s by the stats you are going by.
KLN
People don’t think.
They just repeat garbage.
There is no such thing as putting opponents away in one run contests. Everyone thinks that a one run win or loss means the score was tied and then you score or give up the game winning run.
But that’s not what happens
Take, say, the May 6th game vs the Dodgers. They were down 2-0. They scored a late run to lose by a run 2-1. IIf they hadn’t have scored that run they would have lost 2-0. And that would have been…better somehow? Makes no sense.
Or May 16th vs the Royals. The Royals scored 5 in the 2nd and the Padres stupidly fought back to lose 5-4. Should have just taken the 5 run loss. Losers.
Same thing the next day. Royals were up 4 to 1. Padres, idiots that they are, scored 2 more runs to have one of those dreaded one-run losses that only mentally bereft teams suffer. If they hadn’t fought to catch up, the probably would have won since they are gutless wonders who can’t put opponents away..
Right?
Does that all sound dumb?
Because it is. But that’s what the “can’t put opponents away in one run contests” brigade is saying.
DRDSV
GIve me your argument that B was better than A
Team A: 3.77 ERA (95 ERA-), 3.98 FIP (96 FIP-), 4.01 xFIP, (96 xFIP-)
Team B: 4.37 ERA (104 ERA-), 4.34 FIP (107 FIP-), 4.34 xFIP (104 xFIP-)
Team A: .324 OBP, .155 ISO, 105 wRC+
Team B: .313 OBP, .157 ISO, 95 wRC+
The floor is yours
KLN
“You can be a stats darling. But if you can’t put opponents away in one run contests, you’re going nowhere.”
You know what putting a team away is
When you’re up by a run and then you score some more runs and win by 2 or 3 or 5 and not by one.
Take the April 11th game vs the Mets.. The Padres were up 2-1 in the fifth. Then, because they lack killer instinct, or whatever, they scored two more runs to go up 4-1. The Mets scored again, and the Padres won by 2 instead of winning by one. Gutless performance!
Talking about record in one-runs games might be dumber than talking about batting average. Or as dumb as talking about record on Tuesdays.
10% better hitting and pitching.
Its easier to outscore your opponent when you don’t give up double digit runs on a regular basis.
Lets compare two teams:
Team A, 84 wins and makes the playoffs
Team B, 82 wins and doesn’t make the playoffs.
Case closed.
Wait a sec. This seems like a trap. Argue with a guy that needs to have the last word AND win? Seems so enjoyable for everyone on this site.
Also, I never said anything about A or B being better. I stated that both are very, very identical with one not being a huge variation from the other.
stumee
“Its easier to outscore your opponent when you don’t give up double digit runs on a regular basis.”
It’s easier to outscore your opponents when you score double digit runs
stymee
Your kindergarten level analysis is not cute
DRDV
There’s a pretty clear argument that A is better than B
At the very best B is equal to A
Thus, the narratives don’t make sense
Oh oh me, I want to try! Let’s see
One made the playoffs the other didn’t. The team that made the playoffs might win the WS and the other might get drunk watching it? Did I win?
The Padres were an anomaly in this regard. They were 9-23 in one run games and had a +104 run differential in 2023.
Re: Darth
It’s always good when people reveal themselves so openly
Like Darth here who makes it very clear that they can only understand things on the most superficial of levels and cannot understand things with any depth or nuance
It makes all future interactions with them easier to parse
@YankeesBleacherCreature: Montas doesn’t qualify as depth.
1. Gerrit Coke, Stud, great
2.??
3. Carlos Rodon, mysterious enigma,random
4. Nestor Cortes, tricks and guile, solid
5. King/Schmidt, capable, good #5/6s
…
Depth
Luis Gil? Comes back healthy?
Domingo German if he’s got his Sh@$ together?
Minor Leaguers, wild cards but limited ceilings
They need a Yamamoto level talent but I doubt they outbid Cohen, Ohtani can’t pitch, so maybe you turn to some lower tier free agents,
Perhaps a fellow named Jordan Montgomery might fit.
So really they need a #2, Rodon to be healthier and then some useful depth.
I’m more worried that they only have two bats in Judge and Torres
Don’t worry about the Yankees. If they suck, they suck.
They were top ten-ish in pitching, and bottom ten in hitting. Effross is nasty and coming back from TJ, and King looked great in the rotation. They needs bats badly
After Cole every starting pitcher had an ERA of 4.28 or higher. Cortese nearly topped 5 with 4.97. Severino and Rodon were above 6 ERAs. They were bad both in their rotation and their lineup. They did have some decent arms in bullpen. It wasn’t exactly a shutdown unit, but quite a few arms had decent seasons.
Probably take Dominguez + a SP to get AJ to budge
Dominguez 100%
And I personally think he’s 100% gone. I think Cashman would rather cash in his peak prospect value, than wait for him to develop into what he ultimately will become. He’s already playing that game with a few guys, Cabrera Volpe etc.
Just my hunch, but I think he’s gonna be outta there as the big piece in a big trade, whether that be Soto or whoever.
I don’t think Dominguez moves the needle for SD. Writings on the wall – he’s overhyped
They have seemed to try to trade Dominguez everywhere. There must be a reason.
No, the Padres are higher on Spencer Jones then they are a Jasson Dominguez. With no Soto extension the Yankees won’t be moving him though. (Jones)
The Yankees are unlikely to trade Dominguez now, the Padres prefer Jones anyway(not injured) but obviously an extension would have to be signed lst, for that to happen with the Yankees.
Dominguez goes no where. Spencer Jones is a possibility in a Soto package. Dominguez is recovering from TJS, why would the Padres want him back, right now anyway?
Padres get both Dominguez AND Jones in a Soto trade.
Dominguez won’t play for at a minimum the first half of 2024. Maybe longer. He just had TJ surgery.
Any trade with the Yankees starts with Volpe. Since the Yankees don’t have any other top 50 prospects, add 2 more top 100 prospects. Maybe Dominguez who is ranked #74 is one of those. Then add one more mid-level prospect that is close to MLB ready. .
TJ not a big deal for players who aren’t pitchers or catchers. I’m partial to Dominguez.
“San Diego didn’t start winning consistently until it was too late, never erasing the deficit and finishing two games behind the Diamondbacks.”
About a 1% difference over the course of 162 games
Yet the narrative is that the Padres are a miserable failure who need to tear it all down and fire the GM while the DBacks have…a different story.
Interesting
The ol’ sliding doors
Why do you keep pointing to the “narrative”? If you think it’s false then don’t even comment on it and move on.
DRDSV
The lack of self-awareness is astounding
If you think what I’m saying is false, then don’t even comment and move on
RIght?
You are commenting on another’s opinion, right? You are the one taking it as fact. I can’t help that. I can’t help that you think you have this superiority over others that don’t share the same opinion as you. I don’t get why you need to get so combative about an opinion. Your lack of self aware is astounding because you think your crap doesn’t stink.
Right?
DRDSV
*You are commenting on another’s opinion, right? You are the one taking it as fact”
What am I taking as fact?
I’m commenting more on the reasoning process than the option
“. I can’t help that you think you have this superiority over others that don’t share the same opinion as you.”
You don’t have to help that, because it’s not true. I’m fine with differing opinions. I’m not fine with poor reasoning
And let me guess, your reasoning is absolute every single time, right?
DRDSV
“And let me guess, your reasoning is absolute every single time, right?”
Of course not.
I said I’m not fine with poor reasoning. Why would that not include my own
Maybe you are projecting
Discussion should not be one side trying to prove that they are right and the other is wrong. It should serve to enhance the understanding of all parties involved.
Just to head off some of the worst Yankee trade proposals, here’s a list of players that would make a relatively equitable centerpiece in a Soto trade, via BTV:
Dominguez
Periera
Wells (weakest of these 4, would require 2-3 more pieces)
Jones
Schmidt
Stanton, Judge, and DJM all have negative value.
Judge has negative value? What? I get that his contract is huge but come on.
Doesn’t matter if Judge’s trade value is positive or negative. He has a full NTC and wants to be a Yankees lifer.
BTV is a joke.
Here is how to judge the return it would take. MORE than the Dodgers gave up to get Betts because the Padres don’t have a salary like Price that they want to dump.
When Price was traded the wheels had yet to fall off he was still an over 1 k per inning pitcher. So there was no salary dump.
Price could no longer pitch innings. It was a dump. He had a starters salary, but could not be relied on due to his injury history.
Some things to keep in mind.
The Yankees have no elite prospects. The best is at the back end of the top 100 at 73. Dominguez is #74. A 55 FV. His ceiling is a slightly above average major league player. None of them are elite.
It will take an elite prospect or good young MLB player with 5 years of team control to headline any deal for Soto.
Less than 1 in 5 top 100 prospects ever become even a major league average or 2.0 WAR player. That includes the guys in the top 5 that are almost sure things to at least be a league average player. Those 65-70 FV graded players. Guys like Jackson Holliday and Jackson Chourio. None of the Yankees prospects you listed are in the 65-70 FV category.
Dominguez just had TJ surgery and will be accruing major league service time while he sits on the IL most of 2024. He is FAR from a headliner in any deal He won’t play and he will have less team control by the time he starts to play again.
So BTV thinking ANY prospect that is graded only a 45-55 would be a centerpiece of a trade for one of the best hitters in the game is a bad joke.
You guys are dilusional. Based on Betts trade whom is a better all around player than Soto a pkg of Peraza, Pieria, Hampton and another lottery piece will be more than sufficient to land Soto. Dominquez, Jones, Wells and Thorpe are untouchable in my opinion and if any of them are included it will be contingent upon Soto agreeing to an extension which is simply not happening with Boras being his agent. Personally i don’t see Steinbrenner shelling out $400 million it will cost to sign him plus give up prospects. I rather they sign Bellinger 7/175-200 and Montgomery 6/130, trade Torres for the best pkg possible.
@Anthony maresca You don’t get to declare any prospect untouchable in a Soto trade!
A prerequisite of having a legitimate path to contending would remove the Yankees from consideration hahahaha
How about the Rays trade Tyler Glasnow and a prospect or two for Juan Soto? That would be fun.
Sure. But who’s paying Soto?…
The Rays are only paying $8M more for Soto. They could try to move Margot to clear that. Harold Ramirez could be another option.
Clark Schmidt, Spencer Jones and Everson Perieira and he is all yours NY….
Spencer Jones is not being traded for a 1 yr rental period !
And watch him hunt base on balls and gag when ya need him…
Trading a bunch of their best prospects for one year of Soto makes no sense. They aren’t one player away from WS contenention. Even someone as good as Soto.
I agree, Soto alone doesn’t fix their problems. But, I think for once, Cashman would be getting a legitimate upgrade. Cashman has been adding older players to the roster, and Soto is still very young. He’s a young proven left-handed hitter. With that short porch, Yankees should have a lefty-heavy lineup.
But he’s also a DH waiting to happen at only 25. Probably the most disinterested fielder in MLB.
Oh yes, DH is Stanton’s spot. And yeah Soto isn’t the greatest fielder I agree.
They will surely be looking to extend soto. He’s a perfect fit for Yankees.
And it’ll cost a fortune considering Yankees farm isn’t very good. Or why trade him on the first place ? It’s not like padres didn’t know they committed all that money for next year.
Something like
Cortez/Schmidt
Hampton/Thorpe
Lombard/arias
2 pitchers and a high end lotto ticket will prob get it done. Yanks need to jump on that !
There is almost zero chance Soto signs an extension at this point. And the off chance he were to he’s in a position to dictate the terms, so he’d have a full no trade clause. As for the notion of a trade contingent on an extension, they have no leverage to force that on Soto. Even if they had leverage(which they do not), MLBPA would not allow it.
Does it really matter ? Wouldn’t going into the whole situation with soto and yanks knowing they want it to work long term good enough ? It’s not like the Yankees don’t have the money. Let soto milk the system for another 30-40 mil. At the end the yanks will pay
Which is why it won’t happen. And Boras will not entertain an extension negotiating window prior to the trade.
Of course he would. It all depends on the number. Why would Soto turn down an offer today that he might not get next year?
I mean, I agree, but the point of an extension is so you DON’T have to overpay the player.
Boras has no say in there being an extension negotiating window prior to the trade. He only has a say in whether or not Soto actually signs one.
This is just the beginning
Realistic trade:
Yankees get Juan Soto
Padres get Volpe, Domiguez, and Clarke Schmidt
Yankee fan trade idea:
Yankees get Juan Soto + Tatis
Padres get Stanton, Florial, Peraza, and a bag of balls
@…AND PRINT IT!!! The same Dominguez who won’t play all year next year? Yeah thats totally worth a year of one of the best hitters in the game
And you are forgetting that a large percentage of all young players don’t make it to six years in the majors at all.
That may be the first thing you have ever posted that I agree with.
Hey Yankees fans, its going to take more than the Dodgers gave up to get Betts because the Yankees wouldn’t be taking on a salary like Price’s.
So, more than Verdugo?
Yes, it will take much more than just Verdugo to get Soto from the Padres.
The Red Sox had a dysfunctional Front Office that was not up to the task of negotiating the Betts deal with the Dodgers.
Their process was flawed.
The Padres will insist on maximum value and an overpay by any team acquiring Soto.
Otherwise, they will just keep Soto and go in a different direction.
The Boston and New England Sports media is dissecting the trades and rejected trades during the Bloom era in Boston.
It was not really Bloom’s fault, totally, but he will be the scapegoat for the poorly managed process by Ownership, the 37 VPs and Sam Kennedy.
Verdugo was a top 35 prospect that had just put up a 3.0 WAR in 2/3 of a season playing mostly CF. Downs was ranked #44 overall. Wong was a 50 FV prospect that was MLB ready.
That would be the type of players that the Padres would expect to get back in any trade for Soto.
@websoulsurfer-Not without an extension signed lst, it won’t. Without a extension maybe Torres, Schmidt, and Pereira. With an extension, the haul obviously gets better for the Friars.
@Captain Judge Actually I don’t think it does.
It doesn’t matter if the Padres give the Yankees a window to negotiate or not because he will not sign. Soto doesn’t care if he is traded or not, he has no reason not to go to free agency. This will be a one year deal and it will be up to the acquiring team to extend him, just like it was for the Betts trade. Withholding prospects unless he signs an extension first would just take the Yankees out of the running for him.
Not with Soto going to break a new 3rd yr arbitration record estimated at $33 million
The “realistic” trade will never happen. The NYY won’t trade 5 years of Volpe for one year of Soto, and probably wouldn’t even take the call.
Volpe will likely deliver 20+ WAR over the next five year. Soto might give you 6 for one year.
@JoeBrady yeah I’m sure the Padres want to give up a top 5 hitter for a .200 hitter with decent defense straight up
Yeah…Soto goes to the Yankees, tweaks a hamstring in May, and takes his place next to Stanton,Judge and Rodon on the IL.
Sounds almost as bad as team starting the season with a $340 million dollar payroll only to end up 12 games below .500
So to reply to your point,what’s your point? Off topic much?
With Judge playing 406 games out of 486 over the last 3 seasons is hardly an injury prone guy……… not even in Stanton;s class.
the only way this would ever work is if Soto agreed to sign an extension, otherwise no to the price the Padres would be asking.
The Padres have a talented roster and are paralleling the Yankees in terms of success, and they had Soto and didn’t make the playoffs.
I’m not giving up anything. especially someone like Dominguez for Soto for one year,
Sign him as a free agent.
If signing him long term is a must then yeah the Yankees are better off waiting.
Dominguez would be a must for me.
No more Preller contract negotiations, period. He spends money like a sailor in a Thai red light district…
……….ladyboys….?
The trade for Soto could be the last stand for Cashman and Boone especially if the Yankees miss the playoffs again.
@Braves- Maybe for Boone, but no for Cashman though. Cashman is Yankees Family- he goes nowhere. I wish I was wrong.
Dominguez
Warren
Cabrera
Sauer
Watson
Padres better off standing pat and signing a few pitchers to replace what they lose. LA looking like they might be on the decline. Grisham – purchase him some cheap luggage. Use the money to sign a back of the rotation guy.
Padres don’t have the option of standing pat. MLB has told them to get their finances in order. Payroll is getting cut. It may not be Soto, but he’s the easiest to remove. Otherwise, it’s multiple players being moved.
You keep getting the facts wrong. The Padres are one of 23 teams that were in violation of the debt service ratio because of 2020. The submitted a plan to get out of it and have no problems with MLB.
The Padres made a profit this season. They have went from bottom 7 in revenue to top 14 in revenue in the last few years. They are going to have to pay into the revenue sharing instead of receiving money this season.
The owner of the team said that the Padres were “staying the course” and that payroll would be around the same in 2024 that it was in 2023.
So why do you keep repeating stupid BS like that?
Soto is more likely to be extended than traded.
Shocker
Serious question: “Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune”
Is that pronounced A C or Assy?
Not sure why but I’m hoping it’s Assy.
Unfortunately A-C not assy
The Padres have a chance to be better in the long run by trading Soto for prospects just before the war-shortened 2024
You really think Preller cares about after 2024?
@ harambe. No, not really, which is why I don’t think they trade Soto (unless they’re out of contention in late July)
Preller may be feeling the pressure for a big year in 2024.
Only he and Seidler know the real story, but 10 years as Pres of Baseball Ops and still no World Series after spending record amounts of money?!
Preller has to be on a short leash with Padres Ownership.
The question then becomes would they be better IN 2024? Seidler is not trading Soto without making a run at extending him and ensuring the team has the talent to win it all in 2024 without him.
You’re not getting better in 2024 by trading Soto. He’s a rental so only teams that plan on contending immediately would have any interest and they aren’t likely to part with anyone who is making their current team better because that would be robbing Peter to pay Paul.
agree with what ringworm said
Look at what the Red Sox got for Betts while forcing the other team to take on Price’s salary. That is your comp for what it would take to trade for Soto. In this terrible market for hitters, it would likely take more. Maybe much more since the Padres don’t have a Price type contract they need to dump.
Is there still some Hoz money hanging around?
There is. $26 million. Not sure they can trade that obligation though. Would be interesting to find that out.
War shortened 2024??!
@ SportFanooo. Sorry man, didn’t mean to cause stress with the dark humor attempt. But if Soto isnt like to be extended by Pads and the Pads go for it one more year with him, then one has to consider the other variables at play – like injuries (to Soto or other key players that cause the team to not contend). If they trade him this off season, they are betting on failing or some unforeseen, and that’s not Seidler’s style.
Good points.
Keep Soto unless they get an offer that “blows them away”
including young talent that can help them make the World Series now
(like some of the surprise, young talent that lifted the Dbacks to the World Series this year). T
here are players like that on MLB rosters and/or close to the majors that may be blocked by other starters in the majors now.
@SportsFan0000 Why would a team trade the Padres young talent that can help them make the World Series now for *checks notes* a player with only one year of control?
Kentucky, specifically Louisville, declares war on Pennsylvania and upstate NY in an attempt to conquer the birch and maple bat billet domain.
In Seager/Bauer We Trust
It is enough that Putin invaded Ukraine with a full-scale war on February 24, 2022. Hamas attacked Israel, I think not without the participation of Russia.
Brew – I’ll pitch an idea here (and I’m in favor of keeping Soto but, let’s say he is moving).
First – get fair trade value in prospects to go with a very good 2025 class of prospects in the system.
Second – give Wacha 3/39; Lugo 2/18; Sanchez 2/15; even Profar for 1 mil + incentives to keep them.
Third – bring in Lee and Yamamoto from international.
Fourth – sign Montgomery.
SP – Montgomery, Musgrove, Wacha, Yam, Darvish, Lugo (in same role as 2023).
Lee pushes Grish to 4th OF or LF.
Maybe one of the current milb or traded for players takes LF instead.
This as a more complete process isn’t a bad scenario to trade Soto and improve the team for 24 and beyond and get payroll below the penalty number.
@Longtimecoming You’re not improving the team in 2024 by trading Soto. You can completely forget about it. It’s not happening.
You did see where I said I’m in favor of him staying, right?
The improvements come from what I said needed to happen in addition to the trade to improve SP which was good but could be even better and CF offense which was really bad and DH which was horrible – my post has nothing to suggest that a Soto trade alone could improve the team in 24.
Can do all of that and keep Soto.
Could but the payroll would be 275-300 mil and I’ll go on record as saying they ain’t likely.
The trade of Soto and a few non-tenders could make make it happen and still target the tax limit.
Montgomery, Lee and Yamamoto would not be an inexpensive trip to add.
Figure someone coming back on Soto trade might even be a ML guy with some salary.
I don’t really care what the payroll is. My only concern is that it is better to be just slightly below the first luxury tax threshold than just slightly above it. Same for the third threshold (the one that lowers your top draft pick 10 spots). If you’re going to exceed it at all, blow past it. Padres owner has more money than God.
Because a team trading for Soto is likely all in on 2024 they probably wouldn’t be interested in adding any ML guys to the trade that move the needle for SD as that would be making their current team weaker.
Yamamoto is going to cost $30 million per or $200+ over 7 yrs not proven against facing mlb hitters. Too risky imo and expensive
Could but the payroll would be 275-300 mil and I’ll go on record as saying they ain’t likely.
===================
By my estimation, that’ll be ~ $335 for CBT purposes.
Fair value = comparable to Betts but a little more since no Price contract. So MLB OF with a 3+ WAR in first season. 2 othr top 100 prospects. Another 45-50 FV prospect that is MLB ready and in a position the Padres need.
Padres sign Lee and Yamamoto.
Don’t want them to sign anyone with a QO so that would mean no Montgomery. Options?
Padres resign Wacha to 3/36 deal, Lugo 2/20-24, and Martinez to 3/24 deal.
Padres resign Sanchez to 2/10 deal.
Padres trade Grisham and Barlow.
So we are about 90% on same page.
I’m not sure what they can trade Grish / Barlow for so I considered them non-tender. I gather you consider them worthy of at least a low lottery ticket so I’m good with that too. Same end result to 24 team.
As for a QO – I’d do it for Montgomery and maybe Nola. I’m limiting it to TOR for 4 years kind of guys. I hope you are a little high on Sanchez.
When i put this out there I was hoping to attract you and Brew, maybe a couple of other reasonable minds / Pads fans for a response so, thanks for that.
Unlike the other guy that doesn’t care what the payroll is, says they can get all of my proposed
Guys and keep Soto but wants it below the tax line!
I think we agree on alot of this.
A bag of balls and some bubble gum for Grish? I think that Barlow may get more based on his time with the Padres. He has good stuff, he will just cost $7 million in arbitration.
If they sign Yamamoto its going to cost $20-25 million AAV for 8 years or so. That might take them out of the market for Montgomery and losing two more draft picks is a big price to pay.
I always appreciate your posts. Now if we could only get Preller to follow more of our suggestions. 🙂
@ longtime you probably know by now I’m more a baseball guy, and a fan, than a GM/business mind. but there’s a lot of sanity in your scenarios. Someone would need to crunch the numbers and we’d have to take a guess at where Seidler wants to take the payroll. I like Lee and Yamamoto but history tells us their success in ML might take a year or two. Look at Kim now compared to his first year?
If they can’t or don’t want to extend Soto this offseason I think they trade him by February, or at least dangle him to see if enough is offered. If they trade him but still plan to fully compete for a WS, then they do something similar to your proposals with an approx. $250MIL payroll. The.manager they bring in might tip their hat on whether they’re going for it again in 2024.
I think they can go for again either with or without Soto if they make the moves suggested.
By then, if he is traded and say Lee is Kim / year 1, they have so much trade capital for deadline deal.
Or maybe one of those milb guys has accelerated for 2024.
Pauley, Iriarte and maybe Merrill and Mazur might make a minor impact in 2024. Snelling is only 19 but seems to be close somehow though reason will prevail and 2025 would be the safe bet for him. Homer Bush could get a call up sooner than expected with his speed and defense (Azocar with crazy upside). Tatis, Bush Jr, Zavala and Head. I like the 2027 even without Soto.
For LF it could be a pool of more than just the upper prospects. I’m thinking more like Tirso or maybe the guy that played CF for El Paso and had really good stats all year but a little older / late bloomer. Mathews or Murphy maybe?
Maybe because a lot more goes on behind the scenes than the keyboard GMs think. If it was easy, anyone could do it.
meant to say I like the Pads’ 2027 OUTFIELD even without Soto
I don’t think extending him was the plan when they traded for him. He IS a Boras client and the Padres WERE trying to win a title in 2022-24. That is why they traded for Soto. They aren’t going to backtrack on that now after giving up all that to get him.
There IS no “trading him but still planning to fully compete for a WS.”
Hot SS prospect Jackson Merrill @ AA looks like he is ready for the jump to the major league team with or without a cup of coffee @ AAA.
Plug him in @ SS and bump Xander to 1B or LF
(Or just start him off in LF since he is a great athlete).
Get players in the deal that can help your team now:
a young starter, OF who can play all three positions, some bullpen and bench help that can hit and play multiple positions.
Their bottom of the batting order was not productive last year and cost them some of those many 1 run games they lost that kept them out of the playoffs.
Your CF cannot be hitting below the “mendoza line”
@ SFan Merrill’s defense hasn’t yet been proven to be on par with Bogaerts. And who knows if his hitting will manifest in bigs. With Manny, Boges and Cronz locked into IF (and contracts), I’m not sure where they use Merrill on the roster before Kim becomes FA. Someone will need to be traded. Likely Merrill but could be Kim (who is arb eligible in 2025) at midseason.
Mariners trade for Soto and sign shohei. World series, finally. DO SOMETHING.
Gathering great talent has never really worked for Seattle. This is the franchise that had HOFers Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey Jr, Alex Rodriguez, and Edgar Martinez on the roster at the same time and still didn’t win a WS.
Not sure what you’re implying. Teams with better talent are more likely to win more games and thus also win the World Series. That’s just logical and so obviously correct I don’t have to justify it. But because the Mariners had good players in the past and didn’t win the WS, you’re arguing… that they *shouldn’t* try to get talented players? Should they get mediocre and bad players instead, and that would help them succeed? And you’re saying this is something specific to Seattle… why exactly?
Soto is a Scott Boras client & y’all know what that means. You will get one season if traded this winter or a third of a season if traded at the deadline. Boras always tries to get top dollar for his clients through free agency.
Where are all those Padres fans who said the Preller would never trade Soto lol?!
It is more likely to happen than not,.
Top SS prospect Jackson Merrill can play SS, 2B of OF.
I can see them moving Xander to 2B or LF.
Get a young CF in the deal as part of the trade package along with young starters.
SF
1) Not usually a good idea to say “never” or “always”.
2) Soto hasn’t been traded.
3) You have no idea if it’s more likely than not, or not.
4) There’s no reason to believe that what you “can see” is valuable information
Yes all knowing and wise one.
You are the only one qualified to have a valid opinion on Soto’s likelihood of being traded and the possible returns on that sort of trade LOL!
The rest of us have to be wrong LOL!
We can either believe what the media is rumoring (Acee, MLBTR) etc,.. or what Seidler is saying. Seidler’s never given me reason to not believe his word to the fanbase in SD. Seidler and Preller are publicly saying they intend to explore extending Soto before any next step. The next step includes keeping Soto for the 2024 season even if they don’t extend him now. Many teams are inquiring about Soto because he’s Soto, and there’s no surprise that SNY picked up on that.
It also seems a given, if you were only to go with the dominant paradigm, that the Pads must slash payroll. This also goes directly against what the owner of the Pads is saying. If anyone has actual evidence that the Pads are cutting payroll way back, or are being asked to do so by MLB, please share.
This ^^^ 100%
Teams have to play it smart and speak to multiple audiences to convey multiple messages and try to keep everyone happy,
Your fans and season ticket holders are one audience.
Your opponents and potential trade partners are a completely different audience.
That is one of the reasons you will see mixed messages going out.
Neither is inaccurate.
It is marketing, posturing, positioning for the greatest strength and success for your organization.
Can never rule anything out with Preller but unless he gets CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore and James Wood back to trade Juan would be to admit that the first Soto trade was the worst trade of the entire Preller era. Trading all that for absolutely nothing in return is the type of thing that gets you fired.
Not in San Diego, apparently.
Preller has been in San Diego for what? 10 years without a World Series Title
and only 1 playoffs appearance?!
That sort of record gets you fired in many markets.
I’m pretty sure that they would be getting back at least half of what they gave up to get two years of his control.
you can rule out being hands-off
Where did the article said they got beyond a due diligence type of call?
The facts are that Soto is not being shopped, but any GM would be an idiot to not at least accept the call and Preller is not an idiot.
You on the other hand…
So then is Preller ready to admit that the first Soto trade is one of the all time bad trades in MLB history?
@harambe. The trade can’t be fairly evaluated at this point in time.
wait and try to sign him as a free agent. if they trade for him now they lose multiple prospects, don’t win anyway (they need multiple upgrades) and their ballpark helps him achieve a judge-like walk year that ups his free agent price by 100M
The Yankees don’t have the players they can trade to make it happen without hurting the major league squad, so it’s doubtful
Did the Yankees call the Padres and ask what it would take? Probably. Is there any chance that a trade between the two teams happens? Not in the least little bit.
That brings up a different question. What WOULD it take?
More than the Red Sox received for 1 year of Betts.
That trade involved:
A player that was a top 35 prospect to start the season and had put up a 3.0 WAR in 106 games in 2019, about 2/3 of a season, while playing mostly CF.
The 44th ranked prospect overall in MLB that was in AA.
Another top 15 prospect in the Dodgers system that was MLB ready and in an area of need for the Red Sox.
It also required the Dodgers to take on $48 in salary for a pitcher that they knew would not play in 2020 and who would be a reliever when he returned in 2021.
So let’s look at what that would mean for the Yankees.
Since the Padres don’t have any large salaries they want to dump like the Red sox did with Price, increase the prospect/player return by that level of value.
Start with Volpe as the headliner. Then add 2 top 100 prospects that are at least in AA, and at least one mid-level prospect like Warren and Wells that are at positions of need for the Padres or a lottery ticket like Mayea instead of one of those last two. Then add in taking on a guy like Carpenter and his $5.5 million in salary.
Do you think the Yankees will do that for Soto?
No.
Not a good comp
Perfect comp.
Yes.
You won’t even get 5 years of Volpe for one year of Soto. I’d make a substantial wager on that. As a Yankee-hater, I would love to see the NYY do that, but it ain’t happening.
I would make a substantial wager that without him that no trade would happen to the Yankees. Otherwise, the Yankees do not have any other elite prospects. Not even one and it will take more than one.
The talks between the two teams never even proceeded to the GM’s talking to each other, so it’s a moot point.
Soto only turns it on when it suits him. I hope the Pads get rid of him.
Stop with the “Stanton for Soto” nonsense.
No other team wants the old, brittle former Marlin.
When you bring your car to Pep Boys, you don’t ask to buy a flat tire or worn-out brake pads.
In a few years, after Soto signs that 15-year extension, the Padres might be happy to offload him for whatever’s left on the Stanton contract.
I was only commenting on someone else’s post.
For the right return and if both sides are filling a huge need on their team.,
lots of trades happen that you wouldn’t expect to happen.\
The Padres would probably prefer younger players in the majors and major league ready to help them compete for the playoffs in the much tougher NL West
with the rise of the Dbacks, the Dodgers, and the Giants intending to be strong contenders in the near future.
But yet, the Padres aren’t looking to cut payroll, we are told.
The reports on whether the Padres cut payroll or continue to exceed the luxury tax threshold appear to be conflicting.
No one knows the exact answer to that.
Perhaps, even the Padres Ownership is going back and forth on that issue
with one week thinking about cutting payroll
and the next week thinking about keeping payroll at maximum levels to
“go all in” on getting to the World Series.
The Padres had over 3,000,000 in attendance last year (3.2M?!).
I read that the average cost for a Padres game for a family of 4 is $238.00
Half the fans spend a least double that amount.
With those attendance figures, team revenues can easily blow past 300M per year not even counting local TV and shared National TV revenues with MLB.
They may have some team debt service that financed the team purchase and other expenses.
But, there is a path to spending right up to the luxury tax and going beyond it some years especially with extra revenues if they make the playoffs.
Yes finally! Andujar Frazier delvi Garcia for soto!
Maybe the Rays could trade the immoral immortal Wander Franco for Juan Soto straight up?
San Diego might consider that. Franco is a shortstop after all, so they could put him anywhere.
Padres have made a lot of bad trades in the last few years. I think any Soto trade, that’s not a clear win for them would be seen as bad, because of that.
Trades…albeit good trades aren’t supposed to be about a team “winning” the trade…..sounds a bit like Pittsburg used to look at trades in the past…..both teams need to bleed a bit but get what they deem to need going forward……Unless SD can sign him long term, or the trading team, like the Yankees are “sure” they will sign him long term, the return back to the Padres isn’t going to be that outstanding for potentially a 1 year rental…..
@rocky7 Why not? All of the surplus value with Soto comes in 2024.
Rocky – finally someone else saying what I’ve been saying for years. Trades do not have to be win or lose except in the mind of fans looking with the benefit of retrospective eyes.
Most trades are short term ML to help playoff team for down the road suspects (some call them prospects) that can’t help the ML playoff team anyway. It takes years sometimes to even accurately measure even retrospectively.
Fact: A roster full of all-stars doesn’t guarantee a winning team. Example: Arizona DBacks. Chemistry is much more important.
Are they a winning team though? Or are they a .500 team that just happened to have a good couple weeks?
IF
) time to change your screen name, unless you’re referring to people from the county of India
2) the Padres scored more runs. The Padres allowed fewer runs. The Padres were better than the DBacks, so this is a pretty bad example to support your assertion
You gotta ask. It would be professional malpractice not to “check in.”
I’ll even add that you can also put it out in the media that you took a call just to see how many other / better call you can generate. It’s all about having an open mind to see what develops – maybe even stirring the pot to make it develop.
The one thing about Preller that is for sure, don’t bet on him to do nothing.
Yankees know it will take Volpe and a lot more to make that trade happen. The best comparable us the Betts trade. Are they really. going to trade away their future for one year of Soto?
@Indianfan- hey never change your screen name. There is a major principle involved here. Indianfan sounds better then Guardianfan. Lol.
Clay Holmes (replace Hader) and one of the Yankees 3 OF prospects ranked in the 70’s seems fair to me.
The Yankees do have some interesting young prospects and players on the team
that the Padres would be interested in: .
Jones, Dominquez, Pereira (at least one from ths list who can play in MLB now
or is very close to playing in MLB)
At least one of their young starters who is either already playing in their MLB Rotation
or who will be ready to play in the Padres rotation in 24.
That would get the conversation started.
Then, they can discuss which others can be included in the deal.
What this article is really saying is Cashman was doing his due diligence and reached out to ask Preller if he was looking to trade Soto. Preller said no. End of conversation.
Or Cashman reached out and said what would it take? Preller said Volpe, Jones, Dominguez, Warren, and Mayea and you take back Carpenter and Cashman said no.
Or some variation of that.
Soto is going to be so expensive to trade for that I doubt too many teams gt past the first few seconds of a call about him. There is simply no good hitters on the market other than Ohtani and he is a 24 year old who is an even better hitter so the Padres can ask for the moon and stars for him.
The comps to the Red Sox trading Betts are realistic. Two players in the top 50 or better prospects and an MLB ready, 45-50 FV prospect that plays a position the Padres need. The difference is the Padres don’t have a Price they need to dump in a trade for Soto.
Cashman never even talked to Preller.
“the Yankees checked in on Soto, though sources noted those discussions haven’t actually taken place between GMs.”
the infield chalk painter in NY asked the hotdog vendor in SD about Soto
Let’s be honest: the Padres are looking to compete next year and will not trade Soto for spare parts. He will be traded if the Padres find a trade that makes them a better team. The Padres need quality MLB ready pitching. The Yankees do not have that. I suppose the Padres MIGHT settle for something like Schmidt and Warren, both below average but could give the Padres innings, if a true quality prospect, like Jones if the Padres believe in him, is included. Any of that is a long ways off.
The Padres undoubtedly will not take the first offer. They will get many offers. They will choose the best offer or they won’t trade him. I can pretty much guarantee that he won’t be traded for anything less that 1 top 100 prospect THAT THEY BELIEVE IN who plays either OF or P, along with some lesser quality backfill for the other position.
Teams like Seattle and a few others line up much better with the Padres needs but you never know.
There IS no Soto trade that makes the Padres a better team. At least not in 2024. If the trade makes the Padres a better team by extension it makes the other team a worse team. Why would they make their team worse for 2024 when they are only getting back a 1-year guy? What sense does that make? Christ, the Padres didn’t even do that the first time they traded for Soto. Their package was hefty but it was all prospects/post-prospects.
Quite the contrary.
There are teams that have top, young players and prospects ready to play in the majors and have an immediate impact, but are blocked by starters at the major league level.
D Backs have rookies and young players who carried them to the World Series.
Baltimore has tons of top level prospects backed up in AAA and AA.
Orioles could make a decision to clear out a few players either in the majors or in their backup lots in the pipeline who would be starting in MLB on many other teams for a shot at a World Series Title.
Ditto with the Rays.
Seattle has some of those players also.
Again. The Padres didn’t even trade the Nats players that would make them a better team during Soto’s remaining club control years so why would you expect some other team to do it now when he only has 1 year of control left. A team that is trading for Soto is trying to win a title NOW so they are not going to trade players that will help a team NOW. You are asking for a team to make themselves worse in 2024 to trade for one guy who can be a free agent after 2024 LOL.
There may be some deal or deal(s) out there that make the Padres
a better contender in 2024.
Soto to XYZ team
Padres get back a young LF or CF, and a young starting pitcher for their rotation, plus
some other young players for their bullpen and bench to make up for their Closer walking.
Top SS prospect Jackson Merrill could be up by June and fit @ SS , 2B or OF.
Bogaerts could be moved to 2B or LF
Money saved by dealing Soto (30M+ in arbitration)
Could be used to upgrade @1b/DH/back up catcher (Sanchez?)
And, Padres could also add another (2nd) starting pitcher.
The Padres are not going to give Soto away.
They will only deal him if the deal makes the team better in the short and long term.
1)Tatis Jr RF or CF
2) Kim 2B /1B
3) Machado 3 B
4) JD Martinez DH (FA)
5) Bogaerts 2B (or LF)/SS
6) Campusano C
7) Cronenworth 1B (or FA/trade & Jake becomes utility/bench guy)
8 Trade CF/LF/RF
9)Jackson Merrill SS/2B/LF or RF
Unless, the Padres can get major league ready talent either on a major league team now or blocked in AAA AA by another player in the majors, but who are ready to step up and play well @ the major league level,
then I, suspect, the Padres will just hold onto Soto and take their chances
with the extra draft pick
There is no Soto trade that makes the Padres better in the short term. You are subtracting a 5 WAR guy if you trade Soto. And teams aren’t going to trade a package of players that are controllable and will put up 5 WAR in 2024 for one guy who they would only control for 1 year.
All the interested Presidents of Baseball Ops and GMs are lining up their potential deals now so they can be ready for the various league Winter meetings.
Soto’s availability and what it would take to land him this winter
are topics on the table of every Front Office that has interest in Soto(at least a dozen).
Preller has stated that he will do the best thing for the Padres and that could be by trading him if, as is his agent Boros’s “MO”, Boros is advising his clients to wait it out for free agency and public auction instead of signing with his present team at this time.
The “Hot Stove League” should be interesting.
Many in the industry believe that Soto will be traded, again, this winter.
It may work for the Padres if they can get at least 2 top young major league players or close to the major leagues with huge upside potential.+ other valuable players in the deal
That the Red Sox accepted such a low ball, one sided offer for Betts, should not affect this New potential Soto trade that is expected to surpass the lowball
offer the Dodgers made for Mookie Betts.
Lesser skilled Front Office people (not named Dave Dombrowski)
and lesser experienced personnel grossly mismanaged and botched
the negotiations for the Red Sox in the Mookie Betts deal to the Dodgers.
The Betts trade was fine. Betts was always going to leave and Alex Verdugo has been alright in Boston.
Mariners trade Kelenic and Miller for Doto?
Mariners trade Kelenic and Miller for Soto?
MF
Baseball Trade Values is a useful site to see if a trade is in the ballpark
It rates Soto as 22 million in value
It rates Miller as 26 and Kelenic as 13 million
So, it would say that that is s pretty large overpay by the Mariners
I can’t see a Soto trade whatsoever.
1-Preller won’t get back half of what he gave up, and I am not sure he is prepared to do so.
2-The $30M you save by dealing Soto won’t make up for hole in the lineup created by his loss. Trading him might not get them below the $237M tax line, so that motive is suspect.
3-The Padres have prospects, so the allure of even more prospects is not overly attractive.
Read this today. “the Yankees checked in on Soto, though sources noted those discussions haven’t actually taken place between GMs.”
Says a lot about how much BS is passed off as a rumor about possible trades.
The Yankees offense needs more than just Soto.
The future is uncertain at C, 1B, 3B, SS, and LF.
Soto would solve LF. Wells is probably the foreseeable option at C, but does he go the route of Posada or that of Sanchez?
Who is going to replace Rizzo longterm?
Is Volpe going to improve offensively to keep the SS position?
Are they going to give Peraza the 3B job and is he going to hit better?
How much longer will Stanton be a burden as he ages?
Lots of uncertainty and a single get like Soto is not fixing the Yankees offensive issues.
Landing Bellinger along with Soto will solve two problems. Bellinger can man center without rushing Dominguez back too soon. When Dominguez is ready Bellinger can replace Rizzo at 1st. This tandem of moves solves 3 problems; LF, CF, and 1B.
The Yankees are sticking with Volpe as the future. A huge media debacle will occur if they don’t and Hal loves his image.
I believe in Peraza and a strong and able hitting coach could unlock his potential, but it’s still a gamble.
Bottom line is Soto, as great as he is, won’t fix the Yankees.