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Juan Soto

NL East Notes: Soto, Mets, Rocker

By Darragh McDonald | July 4, 2022 at 8:24am CDT

In addition to the 13-year, $350MM extension offer that Juan Soto reportedly turned down prior to the lockout, it was recently reported that Soto rejected a second offer after the lockout. The specific financial details of that second offer haven’t been publicly revealed, but Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that it was for “at least” $400MM.

$400MM would be a significant symbolic barrier to cross, as it would be the first time an MLB player surpassed that threshold. The current record for the largest guarantee is the $365MM in new money given to Mookie Betts when he agreed to an extension with the Dodgers. Soto says that he’s still open to an extension, but it seems like it might take more than a record-breaking contract to get it done.

Other notes from the NL East…

  • From the same Nightengale piece, he relays that the Mets plan on being aggressive at the trade deadline but without giving up their top prospects. Instead, they would prefer to make deals by taking on large contracts from other teams. This wouldn’t be the first time they considered this approach, as the Mets reportedly were in discussions with the Padres this offseason on a deal that would have sent Dominic Smith to San Diego in exchange for Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagan, Eric Hosmer and $30MM to help cover Hosmer’s salary. The deal ended up falling through due to the Mets’ medical staff growing concerned with the medical records of Paddack, who ended up requiring Tommy John surgery after being traded to the Twins instead. The new CBA added a fourth luxury tax line at the $290MM mark, which the Mets have pushed themselves right up against. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates their current luxury tax number to be $289.4MM, but it seems the division-leading Mets are willing to push over the line in order to bolster the club for the final push. They apparently won’t be dipping deep into their farm system, which is ranked the 16th in the league by Baseball America, but should get a boost at the upcoming draft when they will make two out of the first 14 picks.
  • The reason the Mets have an extra first round draft pick is because of last year’s Kumar Rocker saga. The Mets selected him 10th overall and were apparently going to offer him a $6MM bonus, $1.26MM above slot value, until they grew concerned by something in his throwing elbow during a post-draft medical evaluation and withdrew their offer. Now a report from Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan of ESPN relays that Rocker underwent shoulder surgery in September. Rocker’s agent Scott Boras characterized the procedure as “a minor scope” in the piece. Rocker signed with the Tri-City ValleyCats of the independent Frontier League in preparation for re-entering the draft this year. Through five starts, he’s pitched 20 innings with a 1.35 ERA, 32 strikeouts and four walks. Despite the surgery, Jim Callis of MLB.com believes that Rocker has shown himself healthy enough to be selected at some point in the first round of the draft, which begins on July 17.
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New York Mets Notes Washington Nationals Juan Soto Kumar Rocker

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Injury Notes: Suarez, Soto, Montas

By TC Zencka | July 3, 2022 at 5:20pm CDT

The Phillies have placed starter Ranger Suarez on the 15-day injured list because of lower back spasms, retroactive to June 30, per the club. The Phillies had boasted one of the healthier rotations this season before losing both Suarez and Zach Eflin to the injured list this week. A corresponding roster move will likely be made before Tuesday’s game against the Nationals. The Phillies have an off day tomorrow to set up their rotation. In other injury news…

  • Juan Soto left today’s Nationals’ game with an apparent hamstring injury. It was later revealed to be tightness in Soto’s left calf that prompted his departure. He will have an MRI and be re-evaluated tomorrow, per Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). Obviously, it would be crushing for the Nationals to lose Soto for any amount of time. Even with him, the Nats don’t have much hope for postseason play, but Soto remains the best and brightest attraction at Nats Park.
  • Athletics starter Frankie Montas left today’s start early after seeing a drop in velocity, per MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos. Montas’ heater was 2.4 mph slower than usual, while his sinker was 2.7 mph slower on average, notes Gallegos. The initial diagnosis is inflammation, reports Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle, but they will need more time to evaluate. Not only is Montas Oakland’s nominal ace, but he’s been one of the more sought-after arms when it comes to the August 2nd trade deadline. A significant arm injury would obviously derail any plans to use the righty as a trade chip.
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Notes Oakland Athletics Philadelphia Phillies Transactions Washington Nationals Frankie Montas Juan Soto Ranger Suarez Zach Eflin

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Juan Soto Open To Extension Discussions With Nationals

By Anthony Franco | July 2, 2022 at 4:38pm CDT

JULY 2: In another update from Dougherty, he reports that the Nationals’ latest offers to Soto haven’t included any deferred money.  Just about all of the Nats’ biggest expenditures in recent years have included heavy deferrals — for instance, Stephen Strasburg’s seven-year, $245MM contract contained $80MM is deferred money.

JULY 1: Soto spoke with Dougherty on Friday, backtracking somewhat on his previously expressed desire to play out his arbitration years to test free agency. “Everybody wants to go to free agency and see how the market is going to be for them,” Soto told the Post. “But for me, I really don’t know if I want to go there or if I want to stay here. I feel really good here. We’ll see what’s going to happen. For me, right now, the plan that we always have is go year by year. But you don’t know what the future has for you.”

Asked whether he’d consider signing an extension with the Nats, Soto replied “Yes. Why not?” He suggested he’s content with Boras and the front office discussing potential terms during the season, saying he prefers to “to be far from (negotiations) because I want to concentrate on the game.”

JUNE 30: The Nationals made an extension offer to Juan Soto at some point this spring, writes Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. Specific timing of the proposal isn’t clear, but Dougherty adds that it’s believed the offer was made before Soto’s agent Scott Boras visited Nationals Park in late May. Soto rejected the offer, but Dougherty characterizes discussions between the two sides as “active.”

It’s at least the second offer the Nationals have put forth to the face of the franchise within the past 12 months. In February, Soto told Enrique Rojas of ESPN he’d rejected a long-term overture made prior to the lockout. Rojas reported the pre-lockout offer would’ve been for 13 years and $350MM guaranteed. Dougherty reports the Nationals went beyond $350MM in their spring proposal, but specific terms are unknown. Both Dougherty (Twitter link) and Britt Ghiroli of the Athletic (on Twitter) hear that rumors of a 13-year, $425MM offer are inaccurate.

In any event, the relatively recent proposal is the latest indication the Nationals are hopeful they can keep Soto around for the long haul. It’s at least somewhat notable that discussions remain open even after Soto again declined. In his February interview with Rojas, the two-time Silver Slugger Award winner expressed a desire to proceed year-by-year through the arbitration process in anticipation of reaching free agency at the end of the 2024 season. That wasn’t due to any expressed animosity towards the Nationals organization, but rather a desire to market himself to all 30 teams with a good chance at a record-setting payday.

Without specific terms of the proposal, it’s impossible to pin down precisely where the latest offer stacked up among the biggest in major league history. At worst, it’d have marked the third-largest guarantee ever. Only two players have ever topped the $350MM mark. Mookie Betts received 12 years and $365MM from the Dodgers on his July 2020 extension, while Mike Trout took home ten years and $360MM in new money on his March 2019 extension.

As was the case when Soto turned down $350MM over the winter, many fans are sure to bristle at the notion of rejecting a proposal at an even greater amount. That’s particularly true in the context of what’s been a relative “down year,” at least in comparison to his pre-2022 performance. Soto enters play Thursday with a .224/.375/.437 slash line. Those are the lowest such marks of his career across the board, as he’d hit at least .282 with an on-base percentage above .400 and a slugging percentage north of .500 every season from 2018-21.

Nevertheless, the first three months of this season are unlikely to have a depressing effect on Soto’s long-term value. For one, his relatively underwhelming numbers would still be a strong showing for the majority of players. Soto’s on-base and slugging marks are decidedly above the respective .312 and .394 league figures. His .224 batting average is certainly not ideal, but that’s in large part attributable to a .225 average on balls in play that’s the fifth-lowest number for qualified hitters. Soto’s average exit velocity and hard contact rate are down somewhat, so the lesser batted ball results can’t be chalked up solely to misfortune. Yet his quality of contact metrics have still been solid, and considering he entered the season owner of a .330 career BABIP, Soto seems likely to enjoy better ball-in-play results moving forward.

Owner of a .290/.424/.534 career line with more walks than strikeouts, Soto is still on track for an eye-popping payday. He amazingly won’t turn 24 until October and would hit free agency in advance of his age-26 season. Once there, he still looks a good bet to top the record $36MM average annual value for position players over more than a decade, assuming he stays healthy. A deal in excess of $400MM seems likely, and it’s not out of the question Soto and his reps could set their sights on the half-billion dollar mark. (Getting to $500MM would likely require a 13-year term at an AAV just shy of $38.5MM).

There’s of course some risk for Soto in continuing to turn down offers that’d make him among the highest-paid players in league history. Every player has some risk of a drop-off in performance or severe injury. Soto, though, will have already banked more than $25MM in arbitration earnings by the end of this season. He’ll go through the arb process twice more and figures to make another $50+MM over the next couple years before reaching the open market.

Discussions with Soto come against a backdrop of possible change for the Nationals. The Lerner family has been looking into sale possibilities for the past few months. A potential ownership shakeup has led to some uncertainty for president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez, each of whom are in the final guaranteed year of their contracts and have 2023 options that need to be decided upon next month.

The roster has undergone a major overhaul dating back to last summer’s trade deadline. Washington has kicked off a rebuild and seen the departures of key contributors to their 2019 World Series team like Max Scherzer, Anthony Rendon and Trea Turner. The Nats enter play tonight 20 games below .500, and they’re certain to move impending free agents Josh Bell and Nelson Cruz over the next four and a half weeks. They’ve not given much, if any, consideration to dealing Soto in a franchise-altering blockbuster. Rizzo flatly shot down speculation about a Soto trade four weeks ago, saying the Nationals “have every intention of building this team around” him.

Héctor Gómez of Z101 was first to report fairly recent discussions between Soto and the Nationals this afternoon.

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Nationals GM Mike Rizzo: “We Are Not Trading Juan Soto”

By Steve Adams | June 1, 2022 at 9:40am CDT

At 18-33, the Nationals possess the second-worst record in the National League. With a litany of injuries, the game’s worst starting rotation (by measure of ERA, FIP and fWAR), and a middle-of-the-pack offense, there’s little hope of a turnaround. Given their place in the standings and last summer’s trade-deadline fire sale, there’s been plenty of recent speculation over at ESPN about the possibility of a Juan Soto trade this summer. Soto rejected a 13-year extension offer in the offseason and is “only” controlled for two years beyond the current campaign.

Despite the lack of an extension and dwindling club control, a trade of Soto hasn’t stood out as particularly likely, and this morning, general manager Mike Rizzo made clear that he has no intention of moving Soto this season.

“We are not trading Juan Soto,” Rizzo plainly stated when asked in a radio appearance on the Sports Junkies show on 106.7 FM The Fan (Twitter link, with audio). “We’ve made it clear to his agent and to the player. … We have every intention of building this team around Juan Soto. We’ve spoken to his agent many, many times — recently sat with him when he was in Washington D.C., made it clear to him that we are not interested in trading him, and I guess the rest of the world just doesn’t believe it. But that’s our position.”

Skeptics will point to the fact that Rizzo (or any GM) would never broadcast an intention to trade Soto (or any star player) for fear of losing leverage in talks. That’s true, but it’s also true that Rizzo didn’t have to make a declarative statement at all. It’s common now, more than ever, for baseball executives to use generic front-office speak when fielding questions of this nature. Rizzo, however, did not give a boilerplate answer about how he loves the player but it’s his job to listen to all opportunities, unlikely as a deal may be. Making definitive, on-the-record statements that a player will not be traded is fairly rare.

Notably, Rizzo took this same tack with Bryce Harper at the 2018 deadline. Harper indeed stayed put, although The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal has since reported that the Astros nearly pulled off a blockbuster acquisition of Harper before Nationals ownership stepped in to nix the swap. In fairness to Rizzo, that report suggests the Harper agreement was axed on July 30; Rizzo’s comments on Harper staying in place were issued on the morning of July 31. We’ve also seen former Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen declare that neither Noah Syndergaard nor Edwin Diaz would be traded and current Royals president of baseball ops Dayton Moore state on record that Whit Merrifield would not be moved. Not even three months ago, Cincinnati GM Nick Krall announced to reporters that even on the heels of a slew of cost-cutting moves, he had no expectation of trading either Luis Castillo or Tyler Mahle prior to the season. None of the players mentioned in those statements were traded.

Circumstances can always change, and that’s particularly true of a Nationals club that is reportedly up for a potential sale. It’s also possible that a team could simply bowl Rizzo and his staff over with a Godfather offer that he simply cannot in good conscience turn down. Still, it bears emphasizing that there’s no recent MLB example of a team’s top baseball operations official publicly proclaiming that a player will not be traded, only to then go back on that hardline stance and explain the about-face to the fanbase. The closest example is former Rockies GM Jeff Bridich saying in Jan. 2020 that Nolan Arenado would not be traded, but an Arenado deal didn’t come together until 13 months later, when circumstances had changed.

Fans of other clubs will surely hold out hope for a Soto blockbuster, and there will be no shortage of both speculation and hail-Mary attempts from other teams to pry the 23-year-old superstar from the Nationals’ grasp. Rizzo’s Wednesday comments, however, only make that long shot all the more unlikely.

Soto has yet to celebrate his 24th birthday but already has 107 big league home runs under his belt. He’s a lifetime .294/.426/.539 hitter and is already earning $17.1MM as a second-time arbitration-eligible player. (He’ll be arb-eligible four times rather than three, thanks to his Super Two status.) The Nationals’ reported 13-year offer this winter would’ve promised Soto $350MM in guaranteed money, but he opted to turn that down in favor of a year-to-year approach. Many fans were understandably aghast at the notion of rejecting $350MM in guaranteed money, but from Soto’s vantage point, he’s already earning $17MM this season and could reasonably project to earn upwards of $70-75MM over his final three arbitration seasons (2022-24). The extension, then, offered to buy out 10 free-agent seasons at somewhere in the vicinity of $27-28MM annually — an annual mark well shy of the current going rate for elite players and one he could likely trounce as a 26-year-old free agent.

Even if Soto is firmly off the market, the Nationals are shaping up to be sellers for a second straight deadline season. Veterans like Nelson Cruz, Josh Bell and Steve Cishek are among the names who could be reasonably expected to change hands, as all are free agents at season’s end.

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Newsstand Washington Nationals Juan Soto

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Nationals Notes: Rizzo, Martinez, Soto, Ross, Strasburg

By Anthony Franco | May 23, 2022 at 8:57am CDT

The Nationals hold 2023 club options on general manager Mike Rizzo and skipper Dave Martinez, as each is currently in the final guaranteed year of their contracts. Bob Nightengale of USA Today writes that Washington is expected to exercise their option on Rizzo, who has been running baseball operations in the nation’s capital since midway through the 2009 season. Nightengale adds that the team has until the All-Star Break to decide whether to pick up Martinez’s option, which he reports is valued at $4MM. Jon Heyman of the New York Post, meanwhile, writes that Martinez’s option is valued at $3.5MM.

The Nats were excellent for a good portion of the last decade, making the playoffs five times between 2012-19 and claiming a World Series title during their final postseason run. That unsurprisingly seems to have bought Rizzo more time at the helm, even as the club has sputtered over the past couple seasons. After underperforming in 2020 and during the first half of last year, Washington kicked off a deadline sell-off. The Nationals shipped off a host of impending free agents and somewhat surprisingly pulled the trigger on a Trea Turner deal even though the star shortstop was controllable through the end of the 2022 season.

Parting with Turner signaled the Nationals were going to embrace a multi-year reboot. There was no indication that encompassed a possible trade of Juan Soto, however, and the superstar outfielder isn’t likely to find himself on the move this summer either. The Nationals’ dreadful start (last place in the NL East at 14-28) will no doubt lead rival teams to inquire about Soto’s availability, but a blockbuster trade of the 23-year-old feels like little more than a pipe dream right now.

Both Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic and Jon Heyman of the New York Post pushed back against the possibility of a Soto trade last week. Nightengale, meanwhile, writes that the organization is unlikely to seriously entertain the possibility until after the 2023 season — if at all. Soto reportedly rejected a 13-year, $350MM extension offer over the offseason, expressing a desire at the time to proceed year-by-year via arbitration. He remains controllable through 2024, however, and trading Soto this year would signify a rebuild of greater scope than the Nationals seem to want to entertain.

It stands to reason that Washington will be aggressive next offseason in acquiring upgrades to build a new core around Soto. They’ve little chance of competing in 2022, so they still seem likely to move impending free agents over the coming months. First baseman Josh Bell would probably be their most in-demand rental, although players like Nelson Cruz (if he rights the ship offensively) and César Hernández could hold some appeal as well.

Starting pitcher Joe Ross is another impending free agent who could be a viable midseason trade candidate, but he’ll first need to establish health. The right-hander was diagnosed with a partial tear of the UCL in his throwing elbow last summer, an injury that ended his season prematurely even as he avoided Tommy John surgery. He did undergo a less significant procedure during Spring Training, as doctors removed a bone spur from his elbow in March.

Ross opened the season on the 60-day injured list and isn’t eligible to return to the majors until the first week of June, but he’s moving closer to his season debut. The club informed reporters (including Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post) that Ross is set to begin a rehab assignment with Double-A Harrisburg this week. Pitchers can spend up to thirty days in the minors on rehab, so the 29-year-old should be back in the big league rotation within a month, barring a setback.

That’s likewise true of Stephen Strasburg, who has been on the 10-day IL all year as he recovers from last July’s thoracic outlet syndrome surgery. The three-time All-Star is beginning a rehab stint with Low-A Fredericksburg on Tuesday (via Dougherty), suggesting he’s also trending towards a return within the next few weeks. Strasburg has made just seven starts since the beginning of the 2020 campaign due to various injuries.

With four-plus years remaining on the $245MM contract he signed over the 2019-20 offseason, Strasburg isn’t likely to be a realistic trade candidate anytime soon. Getting him back on track and finding anything resembling his pre-2020 form would give the Nationals a much-needed rotation anchor in their efforts to return to contention after this season, however. Washington’s starters have been a big culprit for their dismal start; only the Reds have a worse rotation ERA than the Nats’ 5.58 mark. Erick Fedde and Josiah Gray are the lone Nationals’ starters with an ERA south of 5.00, and both of them have allowed more than four earned runs per nine innings.

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Notes Washington Nationals Dave Martinez Joe Ross Juan Soto Mike Rizzo Stephen Strasburg

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Latest On Nationals’ Extension Talks

By Mark Polishuk | April 10, 2022 at 10:49am CDT

It doesn’t appear as though the Nationals have had any in-depth talks with Josh Bell about a long-term contract, as president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo told The Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty (Twitter links) that Juan Soto is still the top focus for an extension.  There have been more “discussions” with Soto, but until that situation is settled, any negotiations with Bell will seemingly have to wait.

Bell avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $10MM salary for 2022, his final season of arb eligibility.  Since most players prefer to not talk contract during the season, the Nats might be left with a pretty limited window of time to work out a new deal with Bell, possibly just from the end of Washington’s season to the official start date of free agency.  Furthermore, Bell is represented by the Boras Corporation, and it is rare to see Scott Boras clients agree to extensions so close to a trip to the open market.

Since Soto is under team control through 2024, Bell is technically the more pressing concern, and yet it is easy to understand why the Nationals are prioritizing a new Soto deal.  It’s fair to guess that a Soto extension would be the single largest contract in baseball history, as Soto (also a Boras client) has already turned down a 13-year, $350MM offer from the Nats earlier this winter.  Soto is still only 23 years old and already has a phenomenal track record of success, so it isn’t hard to imagine Boras wanting to set new contractual benchmarks for both total value and average annual value.

Bell, meanwhile, had a strong performance in his own right during his first season in D.C.  The first baseman was one of many Nationals players sidelined by a COVID-19 outbreak in April, but after a slow start, Bell caught fire over the last four months and finished with 27 home runs and a .261/.347/.476 slash line over 568 plate appearances.

Should Bell repeat this performance in 2022, it’ll line him up for a nice multi-year pact in free agency.  Bell turns 30 in August and he is somewhat limited as a primary first baseman, though he did line up in both corner outfield positions on occasion last season.  With the universal DH now in place, Boras can now fully market Bell to National League teams that might have previously been unsure about his fielding future — as well, defensive metrics indicated that Bell’s 2021 glovework was the best of his career.

Whether Bell’s future is in Washington or not remains to be seen, depending on the state of the Nats’ minor rebuild.  There is obvious benefit to retaining Soto as the face of the franchise, but locking Bell up to an extension or re-signing him in free agency would be a clear sign that the Nationals plan to contend again sooner rather than later.  Such a move would also undoubtedly factor into Soto’s decision process, as Soto has been clear that he wants to play for a winning team.  Plus, if an extension with Soto doesn’t become a reality, the Nats might adopt a win-now approach to capitalize on Soto’s prime years while they still have him.

Considering that D.C. has topped the $200MM payroll mark as recently as 2019, the team does have the resources to extend both Soto and Bell.  Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin take up an outsized chunk of future payroll, but they are also the only Nationals players guaranteed money beyond the 2022 season.

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Nationals Avoid Arbitration With Juan Soto, Josh Bell

By Anthony Franco | March 22, 2022 at 7:02pm CDT

The Nationals have avoided arbitration with star outfielder Juan Soto and first baseman Josh Bell, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter links). Soto will make $17.1MM, while Bell will collect an even $10MM.

It’s a massive second-year number for Soto, who had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $16.2MM mark. That’s a reflection of the 23-year-old’s otherworldly track record, as he’s coming off as good a year at the plate as anyone in the game. Soto hit .313/.465/.534 with 29 home runs in 654 plate appearances. That earned him a notable bump over his 2021 salary of $8.5MM. Soto reached arbitration last winter as a Super Two and is controllable through 2024.

Bell’s $10MM salary is an exact match for Swartz’s projection. The former Pirate is coming off a decent first season in the District, posting a .261/.347/.476 line with 27 homers. After a pedestrian first half, Bell caught fire down the stretch. He’ll try to keep that going this season and set himself up for a nice payday next winter, when he’ll reach the open market for the first time.

With those agreements in place, the Nationals now have around $135MM on the books, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s nearly $50MM lower than last year’s season-opening mark, as the Nats kicked off a retooling effort last summer.

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Juan Soto Declined $350MM Extension Offer From Nationals Before Lockout

By Anthony Franco | February 16, 2022 at 2:16pm CDT

The Nationals offered superstar outfielder Juan Soto a 13-year, $350MM contract extension before the start of the lockout, reports Enrique Rojas of ESPN (Spanish-language link). Soto confirmed the team made him a long-term offer but tells Rojas he and his agents at the Boras Corporation prefer to proceed year-by-year via arbitration. He remains under club control through 2024, giving him three more seasons before hitting the open market.

According to Rojas, the offer did not contain any deferrals and would have gone into effect for the upcoming season had Soto accepted. The Nats have deferred payments in many of their recent big-ticket signings. Each of Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg, for instance, agreed to push a substantial portion of their earnings beyond the term of the contract. That reduced the present-day value of those deals, but the offer to Soto would not have had the same effect. The specific payout structure of the offer is unclear, but overall, it included an average annual value just south of $27MM through the 2034 campaign.

Some fans will surely bristle at the notion of Soto leaving $350MM on the table. It’s obviously a life-changing sum of money, and it’d have gone down as the third-largest guarantee (before accounting for inflation) in MLB history. However, a deeper look at Soto’s situation makes it unsurprising that wasn’t enough to forego the possibility of an even more lucrative payday down the line.

Soto already has a strong amount of financial security, lessening his incentive to forego future earning power for up-front payments. He reached arbitration early as a Super Two qualifier last offseason, eventually agreeing to an $8.5MM salary for 2021. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to earn around $16.2MM during his second trip through the process this year. That’s nearly $25MM that Soto has all but already earned.

Assuming he continues to perform as one of the league’s best players, Soto will see significant jumps in each of his final two arbitration seasons. He could approach or top the $27MM per-year salary the Nationals offered on the extension by his final year of arbitration. Mookie Betts’ $27MM agreement over the 2020-21 offseason is the largest ever for an arbitration-eligible player, and Soto’s Super Two qualification gives him a higher jumping-off point for future earnings than Betts had at the time.

As another frame of reference, take the 14-year, $340MM extension Fernando Tatís Jr. signed with the Padres last February. Soto’s deal narrowly tops that marker, but he’s negotiating from a greater position of financial strength. Tatís was four years from free agency at the time he signed his extension; Soto is currently three years away. And Tatís had not qualified for Super Two, so he was still a season from his first significant arbitration payment. Soto, as mentioned, has already banked $8.5MM and is in line for nearly double that amount this year. If one viewed Soto and Tatís as similarly valuable players, it’s hardly surprising the former’s comparatively stronger negotiating position set him up to decline a guarantee $10MM north of Tatís’ deal.

One can argue about precisely where Soto fits in discussion for the greatest players in the sport, but there’s no doubt he’s among the top few. He’s been one of the game’s best hitters from the moment he debuted as a 19-year-old in May 2018. Soto’s offensive production has checked in at least 43 percentage points above the league average, by measure of wRC+, in all four of his MLB seasons. He’s particularly taken off over the past couple years, posting numbers that look like they’re from a video game.

Since the start of the 2020 season, Soto has hit .322/.471/.572 across 850 plate appearances. He’s walked in an absurd 21.9% of his trips while striking out just 14.2% of the time, showcasing the sport’s best strike zone awareness. Among qualified hitters, only defending NL MVP Bryce Harper (.426) has an OBP within 50 points of Soto’s mark. Soto trails just Trea Turner (.330) in batting average, while Tatís (.598) and Harper (.594) are the only two batters with better slugging figures.

Soto has done all this as an astoundingly young player. He turned 23 last October, setting himself up to reach free agency in advance of his age-26 campaign. Thus it’s no surprise he’s viewed by most as being on a path towards at least baseball’s first $400MM contract, and it’s plausible he could top $500MM on the open market. Scherzer topped the $40MM average annual value mark this winter (by a wide margin, at $43.33MM). A $40MM AAV over a 13-year term — which would “only” run through Soto’s age-38 season — would mean a $520MM guarantee, for instance.

There’s plenty of time before free agency comes into focus for Soto, but he and agent Scott Boras are no doubt keenly aware of the chance he has at setting contractual milestones. Soto told Rojas he still envisions himself spending his entire career in Washington, but it seems his current plan is to allow the next few seasons to play out in hopes of getting to the open market. After kicking off an organizational retool at last summer’s trade deadline, it remains to be seen how quickly the Nats plan to install another competitive roster around Soto in hopes of capturing their second World Series title of his tenure.

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Quick Hits: Elian Soto, Yankees, Hinske, Royals

By Mark Polishuk | January 11, 2022 at 10:00pm CDT

While the next international signing period opens on January 15, teams are already lining up the next wave of int’l prospects for years in advance.  Washington City Paper’s Byron Kerr writes that the Nationals have agreed to a deal with outfielder/third baseman Elian Soto, the younger brother of superstar Juan Soto, as the 15-year-old has decided to join the D.C. organization when the 2023 signing period opens roughly a year from now.  Reports from Z101’s Hector Gomez earlier this week suggested that the younger Soto was preparing to head to the Mets, and Soto seemingly confirmed matters by posting an Instagram video of himself wearing Mets-branded attire.  New York was reportedly set to give Soto a $50K bonus, and while Brittany Ghiroli and Maria Torres of The Athletic report that the Nationals topped that offer, it wasn’t with a huge dollar figure, as the younger Soto has intriguing potential but isn’t considered a true top-tier prospect.

Though it is common practice for teams and international prospects to agree to deals well in advance of their eligibility date, deals aren’t completely official until a prospect’s signing period opens, so the younger Soto wasn’t breaking any rules by backing out of his Mets agreement.  It also remains to be seen if the 2023 international signing period even exists in its current form, as it has long been speculated that MLB might overhaul the signing process and perhaps institute an international draft as part of the next collective bargaining agreement.  This would wipe out the handshake deals teams have made with scores of younger prospects like Soto, and subject these players to a draft with a harder slot value (and less financial flexibility) than the one used in the North American amateur draft.

More from around baseball…

  • Eric Hinske is one of the names the Yankees are considering for their hitting coach vacancy, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link).  The 2002 AL Rookie Of The Year and a veteran of 12 big league seasons, Hinske would certainly fit the Yankees’ preference for an experienced former player to join their staff.  Hinske also has an accomplished coaching resume, working as a first base coach, assistant hitting coach, and hitting coach over parts of seven seasons with the Cubs, Angels, and Diamondbacks.  No stranger to the Bronx, Hinske played for the Yankees’ 2009 World Series team, and briefly worked as a scout for the Yankees before embarking on his coaching career.
  • The Royals announced several promotions within their baseball operations department, with a pair of former big leaguers amongst those moving up the ladder.  Paul Gibson is now the senior director of pitching, after the former southpaw worked in various scouting, special assistant, and pitching performance supervisory roles with the Royals since 2011.  Former Kansas City outfielder and first base coach Mitch Maier is now the director of player development/field coordinator, following two seasons as the team’s director of baseball ops.
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Nationals Notes: Soto, Schwarber, Front Office

By Mark Polishuk | November 11, 2021 at 2:18pm CDT

Before Juan Soto signs an extension with the Nationals, “the first thing that’s going to have to happen is that he knows that he’s working with an ownership that’s going to annually try to compete and win,” agent Scott Boras told The Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty and other reporters.  “And then I think once he knows that, then he’ll be ready to sit down and talk whenever they choose to talk.”

Soto’s time in D.C. has already produced one World Series title, of course, and the Nationals have been one of the league’s better terms over the last decade, as president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo noted to Dougherty and company.  That said, the Nats have also finished in last place in both seasons since that 2019 championship, and traded away a significant amount of veteran talent at the last trade deadline.  It seems like the team will reload to some extent this offseason, but it is unclear whether or not the Nationals will make a full-on plunge to try and compete as soon as 2022.

Rizzo did make some indication towards a bigger push this winter, as when asked if he would like to see Kyle Schwarber back in Washington, Rizzo responded with “Why wouldn’t we? I love him.”  (hat tip to Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe)  After being non-tendered by the Cubs last winter, Schwarber signed in D.C. for a one-year deal worth $10MM in guaranteed money, but his price tag for a return will be much steeper after his huge bounce-back season.  Bringing Schwarber back would be a clear sign of the Nationals’ intent to contend, and he would also give Soto some much-needed lineup protection.

Even amidst the team’s struggles in 2021, Soto continued to make his case as arguably the game’s best hitter.  Soto hit .313/.465/.534 with 29 home runs over 654 plate appearances, and has now produced four all-world seasons before his 23rd birthday.  Given Soto’s youth and his already-incredible production, it is very easy to imagine that a Soto extension would be the most expensive contract in baseball history.

Soto is projected to earn $16.2MM in his second year of arbitration eligibility, a massive raise commensurate with his continued great numbers.  Though Soto is still under arbitration control through 2024 as a Super Two player, “we’re not in the mind-set where we got him under control for three more years and have three years to wait. That’s not our view,” Rizzo said.  The Nationals might not immediately jump into deep extension talks, however, as Rizzo said the club will wait until after the new collective bargaining agreement is settled “just to see what the rules are” for baseball’s business going forward.

In the more immediate future, Rizzo is focused on making another change to the Nats’ front office.  In another piece from Dougherty, Rizzo said the team is going to hire a new director of player development, and candidates from both within and outside the organization will be considered.  Assistant GM Mark Scialabba had been in charge of player development but will now move to the player personnel division, while former baseball ops coordinator John Wulf has been promoted to assistant director of player development.

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