Royals GM J.J. Picollo Discusses Offseason Targets

Royals general manager J.J. Picollo recently spoke to the media at the general manager meetings and Anne Rogers of MLB.com rounded up the pertinent quotes. The Royals will be looking to add to their rotation, lineup and bullpen this winter, though they are likely to take a by-committee approach to the closer role.

The fact that the club has a diverse set of targets for this offseason isn’t surprising, since very little went right for them in 2023. Their 56-106 record was second-worst in the majors, ahead of just the openly-tanking Athletics. Kansas City scored 676 runs, which was better than just seven clubs, while their 859 runs allowed was the third most. There is clearly room for upgrades all over the roster and Picollo will be looking to do just that.

“We’ve got to get depth with our pitching,” Picollo said. “One of our goals is to get starting pitching.” The starting staff in K.C. as a whole put up an earned run average of 5.12 in 2023, a mark better than just three clubs. It might have been even worse if it weren’t for a late-season charge by Cole Ragans. The lefty came over from the Rangers in the Aroldis Chapman deal and posted a 2.64 ERA in 12 starts for the Royals as the season was winding down.

That’s a small sample but it was nonetheless strong enough that he’s probably the ace of the staff right now, which says something about how shaky the rest of the group is. Brady Singer seemed to break out in 2022 when he put up a 3.23 ERA but that jumped up to 5.52 the year after, with his strikeout rate also dropping from 24.2% to 18.9%. Jordan Lyles was signed to a two-year deal but was roughed up in the first, finishing with a 6.28 ERA. Daniel Lynch IV got his ERA down to a career-best 4.64 in 2023 but that was despite his strikeout rate dropping from 20.3% to 15.2%. Kris Bubic began the year with three strong starts but then required Tommy John surgery, which will keep him out of action beyond the start of the 2024 campaign. Zack Greinke could come back to serve a veteran innings-eater role again but he is currently undecided on whether he wants to do that or not.

Given that those are the best in-house options at the moment, it’s understandable that Picollo would look for external upgrades, though it’s fair to wonder how much they are willing to spend. In the past six years, the club hasn’t given a free agent starting pitcher more than the two years and $18MM they gave to Mike Minor. Roster Resource estimates that their 2024 payroll is set to be just $70MM at the moment, but they have only been in the $90MM range in the past two seasons, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

The free agent market is topped by guys who will get nine-figure deals like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and others. But the Royals will likely be shopping in a different aisle, perhaps considering pitchers like Lucas Giolito, Marcus Stroman, Seth Lugo, Jack Flaherty, Michael Wacha, Mike Clevinger, Luis Severino, Frankie Montas and others who could perhaps be had on smaller deals.

Turning to the bullpen, it doesn’t seem like a significant acquisition is in the cards. “It’s going to be very difficult for us to acquire a guy that’s an established closer,” Picollo says. “So we’re probably looking at closer by committee and matchups. Who knows where the market will go, but the priority is going to be on the starting pitching, and then piece the bullpen together.”

Last year, the club took a bounceback flier on Chapman, which ended up working out. After a poor finish to his tenure with the Yankees, Chapman settled for a $4MM guarantee with bonuses on a one-year guarantee from the Royals. He got back on track with a 2.45 ERA for Kansas City before the aforementioned trade to the Rangers which netted Ragans, who is still controllable for another five seasons.

In addition to the Chapman trade, the club also moved José Cuas and Scott Barlow last year, leaving the back of the bullpen fairly wide open. Carlos Hernández struck out 25.7% of batters faced and could be in line for a significant role next year but his 5.27 ERA was still on the high side. James McArthur finished the season strong but still has just 18 major league appearances to his name. John McMillon looked impressive but in just four appearances before hitting the IL with a forearm strain.

There’s plenty of room for free agent signings but the comments from Picollo suggest they aren’t expecting to land a Josh Hader or even a Jordan Hicks or Reynaldo López. However, there are plenty of other arms available and the club will likely bolster their incumbent relievers somehow.

Turning to the lineup, it appears Picollo is fairly open-minded about additions there. “Our on-base wasn’t as high as we’d like it to be,” he said. “I think that’ll tick up as our guys get older and more experienced. But somebody who can get on base would be a priority. Power in our park has always been difficult to come by, but somebody who has more slug would be good. Somebody who can just give you a professional at-bat, get on base, drive the ball, hit anywhere from three to six or seven, and I think just to stretch our lineup would be a great fit.”

The club’s finances will play a role in who they target, but it will also depend on how they feel about the young players already on the roster. Bobby Witt Jr. is a lock at shortstop, as is Vinnie Pasquantino at first. Salvador Perez and Freddy Fermin should share the catching duties and perhaps some of the designated hitter duties as well. Nelson Velázquez could be in an outfield corner or a DH slot. MJ Melendez had a rough first half in 2023 but finished strong and will likely return to left field.

But there are plenty of tougher decisions elsewhere. Maikel Garcia had an excellent defensive season at third but was subpar at the plate. It’s a fairly similar story for second baseman Michael Massey and center fielders Kyle Isbel and Drew Waters. The club could supplement those positions with free agents but they also might want to give some or all of those guys room to take a step forward in 2024.

Again, it’s probably fair to expect the club to opt for modest spending, given their limited payroll and steep path back to contention. But some bats that could perhaps be had without breaking the bank include Rhys Hoskins, Brandon Belt, Jorge Soler, Amed Rosario, Justin Turner, Jason Heyward or Adam Duvall.

Taking a 106-loss club and turning them into a contender is no easy feat. The Royals have one advantage in that the American League Central is arguably the weakest division in the sport and the Twins are cutting payroll. However, the Minnesota roster is still in decent shape and it wouldn’t be a shock if the Tigers and Guardians improved in 2024. The Royals have some holes to fill and probably not a lot of resources to work with, meaning Picollo has his work cut out for him this winter.