While the Dodgers went 100-62 last season en route to their tenth division title in the past 11 years, even they weren’t without their weak spots. One such weakness was at shortstop, where the Dodgers finished among the bottom five NL teams in OPS, wRC+, and FanGraphs WAR.
Gavin Lux, the presumptive starter at the position, suffered a season-ending injury in spring training, and his primary replacement, the veteran Miguel Rojas, had his worst offensive season since 2016. Versatile defenders Mookie Betts and Chris Taylor filled in capably from time to time, but neither is a full-time shortstop and ultimately, for lack of better options, the Dodgers were left counting on an aging Rojas far too often.
Rojas is under contract through 2024, but the Dodgers will ask him to play a backup role going forward – the role he was supposed to play last season before Lux tore his ACL. For his part, Lux expects to be back on the field next year, and the Dodgers expect him to be their everyday shortstop.
During the General Managers Meetings in early November, Dodgers GM Brandon Gomes told reporters (including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register) the team was optimistic Lux would be ready to resume his role as the primary shortstop in 2024. The exec repeated the message just before the Winter Meetings, telling members of the media, “Our thought is that he’s going to be our shortstop” (as relayed by Cary Osborne of Dodger Insider).
Lux was once a top-100 prospect, and he finally started to live up to his top-prospect billing in 2022, when he posted a 114 wRC+ and 3.0 fWAR in 129 games. If he can hit like that and play a serviceable shortstop in 2024, the Dodgers will be thrilled. However, that’s a lot to ask for from a largely unproven player entering his age-26 season and coming off a major injury. What’s more, Lux has only started 50 games at shortstop in his major league career, and he hasn’t been a primary shortstop since his 2019 season in the minor leagues. Even if he is fully healthy in 2024, he’s far from a sure thing.
As for the team’s other internal options? They’ve already tried them all. Betts and Taylor can cover shortstop on occasion, but they aren’t the answer, and besides, they’re needed at other positions. Then there’s Rojas, who just can’t hit enough anymore to hold down an everyday role.
With all that in mind, it’s not too surprising the Dodgers are considering an external fix. Per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, the Dodgers “could upgrade” at shortstop, according to “a person familiar with the situation.”
Ardaya mentions Brewers shortstop Willy Adames, who the Dodgers were interested in last offseason, as a potential trade candidate. Indeed, the 28-year-old would certainly be an upgrade. Even in a down year last season, he was close to league average at the plate and elite in the field, hitting for a 94 wRC+ and recording 16 Outs Above Average. Over the past three years, Adames ranks ninth among primary shortstops with 11.3 fWAR.
However, after Adames, it’s hard to identify other shortstops who would count as an upgrade. Free agent Tim Anderson is a former All-Star, but he’s coming off a dreadful season in which he hit .245/.286/.296 with just one home run. He also made 14 errors and posted negative numbers by nearly every defensive metric. Fellow free agent Amed Rosario is coming off a disappointing season of his own, and although he played better after a midseason trade to the Dodgers, a big part of that was because the Dodgers decided to use him primarily at second base. Meanwhile, the next best trade candidate might be Jorge Mateo, who has become the odd man out in a crowded Orioles infield. However, while he boasts a slick glove, he had even worse offensive numbers than Rojas last season.
Adames would be a great upgrade. Has great defense like Rojas but is a much better hitter. They definitely have the talent to get a deal done.
Andres Gimenez could be had in exchange for Dodgers OF and young SP (insert names ) Guardians looking to save $$$
OIC – A much better upgrade would be Story, and he could be had since Mayer is replacing him later this year anyway. Rafaela could play SS temporarily if Story is traded.
Sorry Fever, but Story is not a ‘much better upgrade’ over Gimenez. He’s won GG the last 2 years, was 6th in MVP voting in ’22 with an OPS+ better than Story ever had, is 5 years younger and not coming off an injury. Very much a homer comment.
Hurt – Story has a lot of qualities. He runs really fast, plays both SS and 2B at a GG level, he’s a great athlete, has a lot of energy, and people like him. He’s also locked up in a contract for a few years at a very reasonable price, and now that he’s had his surgery he is healthy with no risk of injury. He’s also from Texas, so lots of good things about him.
Fever – I didn’t say he’s bad, I just think you’re overestimating him in comparison to Gimenez.
No chance Cleveland trades Gimenez. Platinum award winner, young and signed to a long term contract. They do have a dozen or so guys that can play short. Take your pick. But it won’t be Gimenez.
Take a look at Gimenez’ contract. I think it’s highly likely the Guardians would unload that in the right deal. No player is untouchable, and as you yourself said, they have multiple guys who could play the middle infield.
No way is Cleveland trading Gimenez to the Dodgers. How often does LA trade a “prospect” that actually ends up panning out? Cleveland’s FO knows that.
FO is also looking at those $23M years ahead and his boss is in need of a yacht upgrade
The last one I can think of is Sid Fernandez. Do you count Pedro? Other than that… I am sure someone out there can come up with some others.
Jury is still out on Gray and Ruiz. In any case, your point is well taken.
Pedro Martinez of course but I believe he pitched a full season out of the bullpen before they dealt him for Delino DeShields. Yordan Alvarez is of course the most recent Dodger prospect they traded that turned out to be a star. There have been stories that the Dodgers thought Astros asked for Yadier Alvarez and were ready to nix the del, but Astros clarified and rest is history. Traded prospects that end up being great players is part of the game. You try to minimize that but in general most prospects end up being much less than projected. GMs should trade more prospects away.
si.com/mlb/dodgers/news/dodgers-news-yordan-alvare…
mlbdod – Remember the names Oneil Cruz and Dean Kremer.
Friedman will regret trading them.
RE OG:
Someone should actually look into whether Dodger prospects they trade away actually bust more than other teams’
I see a bunch of people here claiming they do. But it’s obvious that they don’t actually know. Just running off of bias
Add P
Cruz may be another one. Agreed. Let’s see in a year or two. I’m less worried about Kremer. Seems like a decent 4/5 starter floor but not much else.
Adames has a career OBP and Average less than that of Gavin Lux.
Adames is an empty power bat and the Dodgers saw all too well in 2020 was completely overmatched on the big stage in October.
He might be a marginal upgrade over Lux as an overall player, but his salary, rental status, and putrid contact/on base skills does not seem like much of an upgrade. If Lux falters, just play glove first Rojas at SS and other than power, is a preferred option to Adames. Can’t pay up at every position, especially since you have to surrender trade assets for him.
JSS
“Adames is an empty power bat and the Dodgers saw all too well in 2020 was completely overmatched on the big stage in October.”
Dodgers are probably smart enough to know this doesn’t mean anything.
“Rojas at SS and other than power, is a preferred option to Adames”
LOL
Adames is a MUCH better player than Rojas.
Lux is much more valuable player than Adames (BTV has Lux at $27 million and Adames at $11) Mostly due to the team having more years of control. They are probably roughly equal in value for the 2024 season with Lux having more variation due to his injury, lost year, and inexperience at SS.
When did I advocate that Rojas was better than Adames?
Just said that Rojas is a great glove and depth behind Lux if he is not healthy enough or does pan out in 2024. No need to give up trade assets or pay high salary for Adames.
JSS, Dodgers should resign Kiki Hernandez, that way they would have Kiki, Lux & Taylor available to play shortstop.
You gotta feel bad for Lux. His last full season in AAA he hits .396. He’s blocked from starting at SS by Seager. They try him out playing part time in MLB at 2nd. Then they trade and get Trea Turner to play 2nd mid season. They try and teach him 3B at the MLB level and even LF both of which he struggles at. The Dodgers let Seager leave (stupidly) and Turner and finally Lux gets a full time starting opportunity at SS his natural position and he blows out his knee is ST done for the year on a freak play avoiding a tag running to 3B. Now he’s ready to come back and they want to trade for someone again? Give the guy a chance to start at SS. Offense was not the problem, a lack of starting pitching was.
Letting Seager leave was a mystery I still don’t understand.
Right? ROY, MVP (candidate), playoff beast, first round draft pick for LAD. That is the player you keep. He’s the reason you boast homegrown talent. Like you said a mystery.
There’s no way the Dodgers were going to give a 10 yr deal to a player having a hard time staying on the field. He took the years and the money, and split. They offered him an 8 year 250mil extension before the 2021 season, and he nixed it. Essentially the same deal he ended up signing for with Texas, plus two additional years. Considering that he ended up playing just 95 games for them in ’21, though no fault of his own, I doubt the Dodgers were looking to up the ante in order to keep him.
The Dodgers had to have another reason than “hard time staying on the field.” They continue to pay Kershaw and he always only plays about half a year. They are about to pay $500M+/10+ years for Shohei and he’s injured his elbow twice in 5 years. Do they want healthy players, of course, but there are a multitude of reasons why one player gets long term or not. My guess is they thought Lux was going to step right in, but he wasn’t stellar right away and what Seager just accomplished makes them want to atone for their misjudging.
Those two additional years are definitely the difference maker.
That’s a different case because Kershaw has taken less money and length than market in the past. Overall he’s been really good to the Dodgers by not going long-term and in return the Dodgers have kept extending him one year deals. Completely different from Seager. He clearly went for the money which is expected but the Dodgers didn’t flinch.
Plan was always to get to Lux at SS. They knew Seager would be expensive and likely walking andTrea was the bridge to Lux. It’s easy to say Seager signing elsewhere was stupid by Dodgers NOW but that’s after his all-time best year last year. Did you think the same after 2022 season? No. Seager had some up and down seasons and injuries with the Dodgers. If you could guarantee 2023 type seasons sure Dodgers should have kept him. That said, Lux is not a slam dunk. Bat did show progress in 2022 and we’ll see if being rusty from a year off impacts it but Lux needs to take big step forward to get to comparable numbers. Also a little bit concerned with his glove and range at SS.
Like you, I’m not too worried about his stick. He’s finally showed signs of being the offensive player they thought he’d be. And like you, his glove concerns me. I think handing him the keys to the kingdom at either short or 2nd, would be a bit shortsighted at this point. I wish like hell Vargas had hit when he was up. I like him at 2nd. I think he’s a physical talent and will eventually be heard from. I like Gavin and hope he brings his ‘A’ game next year.
If Seager had his ups and downs with the Dodgers due to injuries (and who doesn’t?), then you don’t focus on them in evaluating their talent, you discount them and look how he performed when not playing hurt. Without even doing that, his line in LA: .297/.367/.504/.870. Elite.
So no, you don’t have to guarantee anything. A player who puts up these sorts of number over many seasons doesn’t need to have a career year every year to be an important part of any roster. Letting him walk was a mistake, pure and simple. They also refused to ante up for Turner, another mistake.
And before we get too excited about the possibility of trading for Adames, keep in mind he’s a free agent after the 2024 season. So in 2025 they’d be in the SS market again, and Lux will probably be gone.
Turner wanted to play on the East Coast. No amount of money short of a record contract for an SS was going to keep him in LA. None.
And again, LA made Corey a VERY fair contract extension offer, and he spurned it. Can’t force a guy to stay.
They made a second-best offer to Seager. This ain’t horseshoes or hand grenades so close does not count.
Who doesn’t have injuries? C’mon it’s not like he’s missed a few games here or there. He’s missed significant games most of the time. Since he came onto the MLB he’s only played barely more than two-thirds of all eligible games. You can understand guys getting days off and being occasionally hurt. Seager is consistently hurt, including last season where he missed 43 games.
No one is disputing that he’s not a great player. The dispute is whether you’d pay him such a huge contract. And yes, injuries do factor in because every time he’s hurt and not in the lineup you have to find production elsewhere. Here is the thing when you’re consistently hurt you’re going to be potentially playing hurt so why would you discount his performance? Also there was nothing physically wrong with him last year and he had a terrible year.
Letting him walk was not necessarily a mistake in my opinion. You could go both ways. If he plays like 2023 clearly he should be retained, if 2022 clearly not. Think he’ll be in that you got your contract worth out of him category. This goes back to our past debates. You think every major player should be retained by the Dodgers, playing that entitled Dodger fan very well. If we could live in the fantasy world it would be great. Where there were no financial constraints, no luxury tax, and infinite play money to give out, etc. But we don’t, and things are a lot more complex. That’s why we let the professionals like Friedman take care of player personnel and roster construction. He doesn’t always make the right decisions but he knows what he’s doing.
Turner had a down year with the Dodgers in 2022 and a bad year in 2023 for the Phillies. The fielding has also declined. He’s even a better case of why you don’t always pay up for good players.
Who’s excited about trading for Adames? It may be an upgrade with the glove but not sure if it’s an upgrade with the bat. More power for sure but his bat has been in decline for a while now. Lux is controlled for another three seasons. And if he plays well you’ve got savings you can spend elsewhere. Yeah I know you don’t care about the financial stuff.
@BlueSkies, yep, letting Seager go was a huge mistake! Is there something to this Dodgers vs. Boras thing? I thought at the time Seager wanted to be paid top dollar not only on the team but for the position overall. I also thought there was some validity to Seager wanting the extra money to stay in LA due to the cost of living/taxes.
Dallas, Texas is just a little bit closer to North Carolina than LA but way cheaper to live in.
pass
Adames is too similar to Rojas defense first SS. The Dodgers need to put SS as a low priority use in house options.
Trea Turner. Call Phillies send money.
Corey seager
Could you imagine if the Dodgers could add a guy like Seager or Turner to this lineup? Too bad guys like that are never available
@pqskgt
They had those guys and they didn’t win so no, Seager and Turner aren’t the solution to their problems. They’re just an overly analytical team that is more focused on what the saber-geeks tell them to do in a game than what is actually going on in the game.
Guy’s throwing a perfect game, no-hitter in the 8th. Better pull him and bring in the lefty. That’s what my computer s telling me to do. Best not to use my brain.
So they don’t need an upgrade at shortstop?
@Go Go Power Rangers
SS is an overrated position. For the most part, teams don’t need a SS or 2B player. Dump those positions and upgrade other areas.
RE OY:
“SS is an overrated position. For the most part, teams don’t need a SS or 2B player. Dump those positions and upgrade other areas.”
LOL
I’m sure the reasoning behind this gem is exquisite
@filihok
In 2023, SP & CF had provided more WAR to the team than both 2B & SS combined. I’d say it makes more sense to upgrade those positions first.
RE OY
“In 2023, SP & CF had provided more WAR to the team than both 2B & SS combined. I’d say it makes more sense to upgrade those positions first.”
Yikes. That was way worse than I thought.
@filihok
It’s almost a 2:1 comparison. SP provided 1.0 WAR and CF provided 0.7 WAR. What value are you getting from your SS?
RE OY
“It’s almost a 2:1 comparison. SP provided 1.0 WAR and CF provided 0.7 WAR. What value are you getting from your SS?”
If you’re not getting value from a position, that’s the place up upgrade
@filihok
That’s MLB average not specific to Dodgers. Over the full season, if half a win from your SS worth massive upgrades? If so, then by all means, take that half win but ultimately, that half win probably isn’t winning the championship.
RE OY:
Where did you get those numbers?
Bellinger would of been the smart choice.
RE OY
Still waiting for a response to this
They actually did win a WS with Seager, and he just won a WS MVP with a second team so I’d say that he could in fact be a solution to their problems
@pqskgt
A short season championship isn’t really proof of your idea though. Both saber-geek run teams that year were in the WS but haven’t made it back since then. So, I don’t think it had to do with Seager.
RE OY:
The knots that these people can twist themselves into trying to make their viewpoints make sense are impressive
They did, accidentally, stumble onto one thing, though
“I don’t think it had to do with Seager.”
It wasn’t really “because of” Seager like he’s elixir or cheat code. He was one good player among many. This “geek” will admit without hesitation that having good players is a good way to win a lot of games, including playoff games
@filihok
Except, that didn’t help the Braves or Dodgers this year or in 2022. Winning a bunch of games in the regular season is meaningless.
RE OY
“A short season championship isn’t really proof of your idea though”
LMAO
Amazing lack of self awareness here
And any other type of awareness
RE OY
“Except, that didn’t help the Braves or Dodgers this year or in 2022. Winning a bunch of games in the regular season is meaningless.”
Again
The regular season is much more meaningful than the playoffs
That the playoffs are celebrated is what is meaningless
@filihok
Where are the regular season parades for the O’s and Braves and their championship trophies? Oh right… they don’t exist because MLB doesn’t celebrate that.
RE OY
“Where are the regular season parades for the O’s and Braves and their championship trophies? Oh right… they don’t exist because MLB doesn’t celebrate that.”.
It’s like talking to a rock
Celebrating something does not mean that thing has meaning.
Just seems to be really disappointing getting eliminated in the first round of the playoffs after a long successful season. Saber metrics sucks in the playoffs.
@PacificBlue
Well, Houston has done well in this format. Not sure why other teams that are successful in the regular season can’t replicate their success and Houston always gets those days off for rest like the Braves, O’s and Dodgers had.
PB
“Saber metrics sucks in the playoffs.”
Every team uses saber metrics
Absolutly ignorant take on your part
I guess ’17 & ’18 were short seasons too? And Seager’s 2nd WS MVP didn’t happen either?
I’ve been a Dodger fan since 1963 & I’m 70 years old. I remember the 1960 Dodgers teams. Couldn’t hit water if they fell out of a boat but what pitching and defense they had! The tried & true adage in sports is still true today, offense for show, defense for dough! I’ll take the team with great starting pitching, bullpen and strong defense, especially up the middle. That’s how you build Championship teams!
L9
“team with great starting pitching, bullpen and strong defense, especially up the middle. That’s how you build Championship teams!”
Citation requested
filihok;
I’m echoing what I heard managers, coaches, sportswriters, players turned announcers say about the game of baseball. Heard it often back in that era about football & basketball too.
L9y
“I’m echoing what I heard managers, coaches, sportswriters, players turned announcers say about the game of baseball. ”
Echoing what people say is a great way to be wrong
“the issue has already been studied many times and the conclusion is always the same; run scoring and run prevention are roughly of equal importance. There’s some evidence that teams who specialize in run prevention might do slightly better than teams who specialize in run scoring, but the furthest you can push the split is in the 52/48 range in favor of run prevention. By and large, a run is a run is a run.”
blogs.fangraphs.com/pitching-and-defense-wins-as-l…
Welcome to modern baseball I speak out about it often but there’s few of us. Ever wonder why Joe Maddon hasn’t been working since the Angels?
@Wrian Washman
I like sabermetics but there are times when it takes over your whole thought process in a game and then we have junk ideas like what happened to Jose Berrios. I’ll never forget nor will I forgive the saber-geeks for their destruction of the game.
RE OY:
Damn. That cloud never stood a chance
@filihok
What cloud?
RE OY
“What cloud?”
The one yourv shaking fist chased away
@filihok
And this is where logical discussion turns into slander. Thanks for trying.
RE OY:
“I’ll never forget nor will I forgive the saber-geeks for their destruction of the game.”
Ah, yes…dripping with logical discussion
“saber-geeks”
Full of non slander
Again. Complete lack of self-awareness or any kind of awareness
Are you suggesting that sabermetics isn’t a big part of baseball culture? LOL! I see the logic isn’t there for you…
RE OY
“And this is where logical discussion turns into slander. Thanks for trying.”
Imagine thinking this
“I like sabermetics but there are times when it takes over your whole thought process in a game and then we have junk ideas like what happened to Jose Berrios. I’ll never forget nor will I forgive the saber-geeks for their destruction of the game.”
Is logical discussion
RE OY
“Are you suggesting that sabermetics isn’t a big part of baseball culture? LOL! I see the logic isn’t there for you…”
Not at all
If you want to talk about logic, then show me, logically, how you came to that conclusion
Do you realize that they had one of the best best regular seasons of All Time in 2022 with 111 wins?? They also managed to win 106 games the other season Turner was there in 2021.
“Best not to use my brain” is an excellent summary of your comment….
@Tigers3232
They could win 162 for all that matters but we don’t celebrate the team having the most wins at the end of the season. We celebrate the team that wins the championship at the end of the season.
RE OY:
Here’s the problem explicitly laid out by OY
What “we celebrate” isn’t necessarily anything real.
We could choose to celebrate anything. Hell, we celebrate Christmas. And New Year’s, but those are both totally arbitrary dates.
The playoffs is similar. Winning the most games over 6 months says much more about a team than a couple short series does
@filihok
I don’t disagree with you but at the end of the day, no one is talking about how the O’s or Braves had amazing 100+ season. They’re talking about the Rangers & D-Backs performance in the playoffs & WS. Both teams win totals were in the 80s. We’ve decided as a baseball nation that the winner of the WS is more important than the winner of the regular season. If you don’t like that, start a new league and award the championship to the regular season team with the most wins. MLB has shown that regular season wins are meaningless.
RE OY
Again
What we decide is important isn’t necessarily what’s important
I mean… Just look at literally anything in society
Rangers win total was 90.
Tiger – You really need to take into consideration SOS when judging a team’s regular season performance.
Last year the Dodgers had a .711 winning percentage against divisional opponents, and only a .663 winning percentage against everyone else. Keep in mind they played 76 games within the division, nearly half the schedule.
In fact, only ONE other NL West team had a winning record, as the four other teams in the division had a combined 312-336 record.
@Old York, the 90’s Braves 14 straight division titles are talked about.
@Fever, they Yankees and Mariners who are 2 of the teams that had better ingle season records All Time also played division heavy schedule as well. You can try and diminish it but at the end of the day they still had 111 wins.
They need to stop pitching Kershaw in the playoffs.
OY
“Best not to use my brain.”
I know you meant this sarcastically, but… Doesn’t seem like you’re actually using your brain.
Or, scarily, maybe you are.
First, the goal of a team isn’t to throw a no-hitter. It’s to win a game. Teams also have an obligation to keep their players healthy. So, pushing them past their physical limits to achieve a specious goal isn’t great – remember, no-hitters are team achievements, not individual achievements.
Second
“They had those guys and they didn’t win so no, Seager and Turner aren’t the solution to their problems. ”
We get it. You weren’t very good in school. Probably maxed out at truly understanding what you were being taught sometime in middle school, yet you think you know more than people who spend their lives studying something. The height of arrogance – and ignorance.
@filihok
1. I said nothing about no-hitters being the ultimate goal. The problem is when the stats suggest the guy shouldn’t go beyond the 3rd time around and thus, we need to remove him, even if he’s going with a perfect game. Yes, health is a concern and there are people watching the pitcher all the time for signs of fatigue and problems. That’s why they only pitch 100 pitches. My point wasn’t that NH are the most important part of the game.
2. So, this point isn’t really a point but you’re lashing out at me because you don’t actually have a valid argument. I get it, sometimes, it’s tough to accept that you’re wrong but that is usually something not taught in school and you have to learn that as part of a life skill.
RE OY:
” I said nothing about no-hitters being the ultimate goal. The problem is when the stats suggest the guy shouldn’t go beyond the 3rd time around and thus, we need to remove him, even if he’s going with a perfect game. Yes, health is a concern and there are people watching the pitcher all the time for signs of fatigue and problems. That’s why they only pitch 100 pitches. My point wasn’t that NH are the most important part of the game.”
Then what’s your point?
Why should the number of hits given up in the past by the pitcher get any consideration when deciding if they should be allowed to face more hitters in the future?
Maybe you’re one of these stat geeks who thinks the spreadsheet is more important than what’s going on in the game in front of you
Extreme geek voice: Well, see his WHIP is 0.00 so that means he should stay in the game
LOL
“So, this point isn’t really a point but you’re lashing out at me because you don’t actually have a valid argument. I get it, sometimes, it’s tough to accept that you’re wrong but that is usually something not taught in school and you have to learn that as part of a life skill”
I can’t counter your non+point with a point
Like, if you said the taste of time was 7… How can I respond to that?
“They had those guys and they didn’t win so no, Seager and Turner aren’t the solution to their problems. ”
This is just gobbledygook
@filihok
1. Because we have a long history of acknowledging that no hitters and perfect games are things to celebrate, just as we celebrate the winners of the WS and not the regular season. It’s just part of the culture of baseball.
2. When I’m looking at the stats, it’s for the future production not game to game skill level. That’s why I’m posting about predictive stats for batters like BA & wOBA and kwERA & GBkwERA for pitchers. But all the stats from day to day mean nothing and are just there to distract the fan’s attention to another useless number.
To summarize, SS isn’t really worth upgrading as it’s not adding a lot of value compared to other positions.
RE OY:
“1. Because we have a long history of acknowledging that no hitters and perfect games are things to celebrate, just as we celebrate the winners of the WS and not the regular season. It’s just part of the culture of baseball.”
Are you capable of assimilating new information?
Again, celebrating something does not inbue it with meaning
We could decide to celebrate the team with the best record on Tuesdays. But, do what? That wouldn’t mean anything.
“When I’m looking at the stats, it’s for the future production not game to game skill level”
Then why the [heck] are you taking about removing pitchers from no-hitters?
“predictive stats for batters like BA & wOBA ”
Why [on Earth] do you think BA and wOBA are predictive?
They won a World Series with seager so there goes your point
RE Willie
“They won a World Series with seager so there goes your point”
You can never be wrong if you’re willing to deny reality and pretzel your thinking beyond recognizition.
Let me guess you’re referring to Dave Roberts as the problem. I totally agree 100%.
Right. The all-analytics guys who brought in & kept Chase Utley & Jason Hayward, retain Austin Barnes, brought back Kiké, brought in Pujols…seems like an awful lot of clubhouse guys for a Geek Squad, no?
Bingo and this is why Ohtani and whomever is still not going to get them a championship. Ohtani pitching days being a dominating starter are practically over and they are going to end up forking over 575/12 for a F/T DH.
@Anthony maresca
He’s not going to the Dodgers.
Seager’s first WS MVP says they did win when he was here.
@halloffamernobodycares
Then what happened to him in 2022 when Texas made the WS… err, I mean, were 26 games below .500. Yeah, I still don’t think it was Seager.
RE OY:
“Then what happened to him in 2022 when Texas made the WS… err, I mean, were 26 games below .500. Yeah, I still don’t think it was Seager.”
Babe Ruth wasn’t actually that good because the Yankees didn’t win the World Series every year between 1920 and 1934 and were under .500 in 1925
Total Galaxy brain “logic” by OY on display here.
@filihok
Exactly my point. Babe didn’t win WS for the Yankees just like Seager didn’t win WS for teams.
RE OY:
“Exactly my point. Babe didn’t win WS for the Yankees just like Seager didn’t win WS for teams.”
If that’s your point, sure
If your point is it doesn’t matter if you have Seager or Rojas, then ROFL.
@filihok
Did it matter for the Dodgers the past decade?
RE OY:
“Did it matter for the Dodgers the past decade?’
During the years that he played for them during the last decade, yes, of course
@filihok
So, Seager single handedly won the championship for the Dodgers in a short season? Wow! How come he couldn’t do that last year for the Rangers? Talk about lacking logic…
RE OY
That you concluded this
“So, Seager single handedly won the championship for the Dodgers in a short season? Wow! How come he couldn’t do that last year for the Rangers? ”
From this
“During the years that he played for them during the last decade, yes, of course”
Is, indeed, a complete lack of logic
@filihok
But you didn’t explain how that mattered to the Dodgers having Seager on the team. They could have had some random guy and achieved the same results of nothingburgers after nothingburgers…
OY
“But you didn’t explain how that mattered to the Dodgers having Seager on the team. They could have had some random guy and achieved the same results of nothingburgers after nothingburgers…”
Because Seager is better tham nearly every other SS
Thus, he increased their odds of winning more then almost every other SS.
I don’t have the inclination to teach you a Stats 101 course in the comment section of MLBTR, so, if you don’t understand that.. You don’t understand it
@filihok
Carlos Correa has more career WAR than Seager in the same period. So, your claim that he’s better than nearly every other SS is incorrect. Those are the stats.
RE OY
“Carlos Correa has more career WAR than Seager in the same period. So, your claim that he’s better than nearly every other SS is incorrect. Those are the stats”
The dude talking about “logic” thinks that one SS potentially being better than Seager means that he’s not better than nearly every other SS
I hope you’re trolling and not that dumb
Exactly, that’s the real truth if we all reflect on reality.
They ought to call the Cardinals about Edman. Just quietly really good.
Cards need pitching…
Jorge Polanco could make some sense.
LA ought to acquire Edmundo Sosa from the Phillies. He’s a slick-fielding SS who can play 2B, 3B and even some LF. Has some pop in his bat (10 HR last year in a bench role.).
Remember, the Cardinals played Sosa over DeJong three years ago, and didn’t skip a beat. More importantly, it would not take a whole lot to get Sosa in a trade since an everyday gig in Philly isn’t in the cards for him.
Ohtani can likely play shortstop, too. Ask him when he arrives later this week.
I’m hearing it’s the Giants. Dodgers won’t match the astronomical $$.
I predict Ohtani still picks Dodgers and leaves $100 million on the table. His agent is going to be disappointed when he tells Ohtani Dodgers offer is take it or go elsewhere.
You could very well be right. But you’re not. lol just kidding.
You might want to copy and paste this and impress all your friends:
“OHTANI TO THE GIANTS.”
Hope so. As great as Ohtani is there are long term concerns over pitching health and so why pay that much for a DH? Great bat, but to live up to that kind of contract you need a meaningful pitching contribution.
Or…you’ll need him to be a superior RF–as he was in Japan, and which there’s no reason to think he couldn’t be again, considering his commitment to his craft and his otherworldly talent.
And that’s without also assuming that–even if he doesn’t get all the way back to be a dominant starter–he could also be used as a reliever, which would allow him to throw fewer innings AND wouldn’t force his new team to roll out a 6-man rotation.
The problem lies in what impact signing Ohtani might have on a team’s–in this case, the Dodgers’–ability to fill its other, more pressing needs.
Sure, that’s always a possibility but OF or RP you’re getting less than SP from a contract $ worth. I guess that’s the potential premium you may have to pay. Of course we don’t know how much $s we’re talking about until something real breaks.
Ohtani of course would put a massive constraint on ability to fill other needs with at least $45mm committed per season, SP specifically for 2024 since he won’t pitch next year. I understand that it’s a balance between ST and LT needs but given the $ and risk I wonder how much Dodgers are willing to overpay, as I’d think the winner of the sweepstakes will have to overpay.
adames for lux and a wildcard or two
juice
“adames for lux and a wildcard or two”
I hope you’re not suggesting that Adames has more value than Lux
BTV, for example, has Lux at $28 million and Adames at $11 million.
Lux would make a good centerpiece for a Burnes ($34 million) trade.
I’d roll the dice with Lux. He’s still controllable and cheap. He was an elite prospect, and the potential to be great still there. Even if he struggles a bit at SS the bat could be elite. And you have Rojas as a backstop, and could always make deadline acquisition. Focus off season on starting pitching upgrade and depth.
mlbdf
“I’d roll the dice with Lux. He’s still controllable and cheap. He was an elite prospect, and the potential to be great still there. Even if he struggles a bit at SS the bat could be elite. And you have Rojas as a backstop, and could always make deadline acquisition. Focus off season on starting pitching upgrade and depth.”
Dodgers know more about him than we do
He always looked stretched at SS to me (#notascout)
I wouldn’t mind a year at 2B for him and a trade for, say, Adames.
Make a decision after that
If the team says he’s ready at SS, I trust them
Agreed that Lux’s SS was not great but hopefully he has put in some work and improved. To me, his range was a bit short and his arm not big enough to be really good at SS. But hey what do I know. Perhaps there is also a he’s good enough at SS factor and the bat makes up for it. Agreed that he’s better suited for 2B but I’d guess the Dodgers would like to have Busch win that job out of spring training, barring a trade of course.
Not the biggest fan of Adames. He doesn’t get on base enough, even though last year his BB rate was improved. I’d rather go with Lux at SS and Busch at 2B for now. There are options if those two don’t work out.
burnes will cost a lot more then lux. not because of luxs skill set, he is a premium for sure but coming off injury his value is about as low as it will be. dodgers would be foolish to sell him at a low but as a brewers fan i would take him headlining in a heart beat.
burnes will cost a top prospect or two..if the brewers had woodruff.But with him now gone out, it will take a kings ransom for the brewers to give up burnes when they are still competing.
Javier Baez to the rescue
Bring in Elvis Andrus
Forget Adames. Get Mateo from Orioles and also get Coby Mayo to play 3b, send them stone, knack and a couple more AA pitcher’s.
Forget about Mayo. I believe the O’s are high on him. You could possibly get Norby and along with Mateo.
Mayo is unproven; not ready.
The Reds have like 6 shortstops
And clean house everytime they trade w reds ! We best stay far away lol
That being said – how bout cicny native walker burhle and catcher Cartaya for McLain and Williamson. Maybe get another piece from dodgers like Gelof
Correa can be had, call the Twinkies !!
How about Maikel Garcia from the Royals? He’s a natural SS, but he ain’t gonna play there in KC.
As a Royals fan, I thought this as well. KC needs pitching, so maybe for Gavin Stone or something.
They could trade for Jeremy Pena, I wouldn’t mind that one bit.
Seems a clear case of writer retread. Same player names etc. etc. Maybe they’re too busy to research.
Here’s the Dodgers play – trade pitching for Matt McLain. The Reds have an MI surplus, and McLain outperformed his StatCast, so the team may be ok with moving him (being wary of regression, which started to show post All-Star break).
McLain is also a SoCal guy through and through – Orange County raised/UCLA…
I don’t think I would like seeing Adames on the Dodgers. Rightly or wrongly, and I suspect probably wrongly, I recall his career moment as watching 2 piped fastballs go by him to end the World Series. I have never seen a player who looked like he less wanted to be there.
McLain would not be cheap and I’m not so sure if he’s going to give you the best SS. He’s better suited for 2B. To me he’s another case of good athlete with great bat, put him at SS but he’s probably better suited for 2B kind of player. He can flat out rake and his value is probably highest as it would get but I don’t see the Dodgers going that way. Too expensive to acquire with prospects and bigger needs at SP. I’m not so sure if the Dodgers need to do anything at SS right now. There are options.
Would love Dodgers get Tim Anderson let’s poison that Dodger clubhouse!
Let Dodgers sign Tim Anderson or trade for Baez so either one of them can disrupt their chemistry
That would be a Padres-like move.
Re-sign Kike.
Cora: Noooo!!!
Should of kept Seager. Home grown already had his fan base established. I bet they’d love a time machine!
Assuming Friedman ever admits to making a mistake, even to himself.
Monday morning QB club. Where were all these posts after Seager’s terrible 2022 season with the Rangers? Also, can you guarantee that going forward we’re going to see 2023 seasons and not 2022 seasons for Seager? If the latter, sure, the Dodgers should have re-signed him.
Regression to the mean, my friend. Check it out.
And as the man said, if you want a guarantee, buy a toaster.
Well, mean reversion works both ways. Expect a big drop off in Seager’s 2024 season. He’s done about the same in Texas as he did with the Dodgers. One bad season in 2022 and one great season in 2023 but did miss 43 games.
The other issue is that he’s been unable to remain healthy. In 8 full seasons in the MLB, Seager has played 145 games or more only three times. Seager is obviously a great talent and perhaps the Dodgers regret not being aggressive enough but so far that contract has played out the way one would have expected, albeit with more variability in both seasons.
Mean reversion works only one way, by definition.
No, Sherlock. It means things revert to the mean. Meaning if Seager is an 0.873 career OPS hitter he can’t sustain 1.000+ OPS (granted in smaller sample size he missed 43 games in 2023) and so that OPS is coming down pretty good, if we see mean reversion in 2024. Basic understanding is usually good if you want to discuss it.
Uh, no. The mean is an arithmetic average around which data that makes up the mean distributes. So you have missed the point completely. I’m not saying Seagar will reproduce his numbers from last season. That was your specious argument. I’m saying that the best predictor of his future performance is his past performance, as represented by the mean of his performance over the course of his career. So yeah, basic understanding helps.
I was not saying he hits same as last season. I can see stats is not your thing. Where did you think I pulled his 0.873 OPS? That is his career OPS. That is his average OPS. Meaning reverting to the mean implies he hits 0.873 which is great but well below the 1.013 he hit last season on a smaller sample size. That is classic reverting to the mean example. Try taking a stat class online or something.
Here’s a name to think about: Bobby Witt Jr. KC isn’t going to contend in Witt’s cheap years, so flipping him for a significant package of players and pitchers seems like the best use of his value, and may set KC up for a run in the 2nd half of this decade.
They let Bellinger and Seager walk. Coulda woulda shoulda!
@Finatic:
I can’t speak for all fellow LAD fans, but:
I’d argue you won’t see many Dodgers fans bemoaning letting Bellinger go. Prior to last year, his 2019 first half–which won him the MVP–appeared increasingly like a career outlier, and his constant tinkering (and his inability to be coached) reached absurdist levels. That he suddenly figured out things last year (mostly; the advanced metrics aren’t all positive) speaks more to someone who finally accepted that in order to get the bag, he was going to have to do things differently (at least until he gets the bag). I wouldn’t want my team to be the one that pays him, but maybe that’s just me.
And Seager? The Dodgers were never going to pay that $$, but…yeah. Man, that one hurt. (Sigh…..)
Yeah, Bellinger had a complete re-shift in his approach at the plate this past season. Perhaps that is part of desperation mode. He made a lot more contact than he did in his last three seasons with the Dodgers. I think the big bounce back in 2023 is going to be followed by some mean reversion in 2024.
On Seager, his fate was sealed when the Dodgers traded for Trea Turner. They clearly used Turner as a bargaining chip/fallback for Seager. And it was always my thought that they never intended to re-sign Trea unless his market completely collapsed. Lux to me was always groomed to be the cheap replacement for Seager at SS with Trea the bridge to get there. Lux’s injury before ’23 was a big blow to that plan.
@CommentsSectionCommenter, I couldn’t agree more. The two things that I think bode ill for the long term are an anonymous quote from a Dodgers source early in 2022 alluding to his unreceptiveness to coaching and his shock at being benched when we had suddenly had games that we *had* to win. He should’ve been surprised every day that he saw his name in the starting lineup, but instead he just assumed he was golden despite being literally one of the 3-4 worst hitters in MLB. Amazing.
Lux, if healthy, is perfectly fine at SS for 2024. Last offseason people were wringing their hands over the Dodgers’ CF position and James Outman put a very nice 3.3 WAR. Just let the kids play and focus trade capital on pitching (i.e., Corbin Burnes, et al.)
Agreed, much bigger need at SP. Unless you get a great deal that you can’t pass up on the pecking order should be 2-3 SPs, a LF, some RP help and then maybe upgrade the infield.
The Dodgers should call Dipoto, I’m sure they’d love to save the $11M annually! Based on the rest of the offseason, they’d probably give J.P. away for some lightly used toilet paper and throw Ty in for a 50% off at Papa John’s coupon!
(To be fair, I’d probably do the France deal for real, he sucks!)
The best for his glove, bat and fan favorite status would be the Padres’ HSK.
Ha-Seong Kim deserves to be on a winner. He shows up to work and it shows. Since the Padres are wasting him at second, maybe they’ll think he’s expendable.
Even Xander Bogaerts said that he is not the best shortstop. X also is not wanting to shift to first so that Cronenworth can go to his best position (hitting much better when he starts at second).
HSK is then the odd man out. He’s not locked in to a long term deal like the others.
HSK-LA!
[Sarcasm is a sign of anger. I dislike the Padres loyalty to Preller and crappy front office decisions.]
Would love to see Adams. Dodgers need a middle infielder and Adams and Lux would just just need to adapt and play some 2B. Lux can go to LF also and there is AB to gain in LF.
Mookie, Lux, and Adams all healthy gives Dodgers depth at SS, 2B, LF, and RF…and Adams should noit take much to get with only a year of control. Move like this can only be positive imo.
If Reds offer their starting SS Noelvi Marte but what could the Dodgers give back. Reds need SP or power RH OF?
Well, that’s a Sheehan/Frasso/Stone and a Pages.
Ha, I wish. 🙂
Zero chance the Dodgers are actually penciling in Lux as their SS yet. They can’t – not after that injury and his missing a year. But, they do have Rojas as backup and Taylor who can fill in, so I don’t see Adames as a priority right now – unless the Brewers are trying to move him.
Pencil can be erased. The Dodgers absolutely are penciling in Lux at SS right now. That doesn’t prevent them from trading for a SS.