February 12: Alex Speier of the Boston Globe relays that the minor league deal is now official and that Luetge will make a $1MM salary if he cracks the roster.
February 10: The Red Sox and left-hander Lucas Luetge are in agreement on a deal, according to a post on Luetge’s own Instagram page. Luetge didn’t specify the terms of the arrangement, though it’s likely a minor league pact that includes an invite to big league Spring Training.
Luetge, 37 next month, made his MLB debut back in 2012 as a member of the Mariners. The southpaw pitched decently during his rookie season, posting a roughly-league average 3.98 ERA and 4.03 FIP while striking out 21.3% of batters faced and generating grounders at a 46.9% clip. Solid as those peripheral numbers were, Luetge’s overall performance was dragged down by control issues as he walked an elevated 13.5% of batters faced during his first season in the majors.
The left-hander spent the next three seasons shuttling between Triple-A and the majors for the Mariners, pitching to a 4.66 ERA and 4.47 FIP in 48 major league appearances while managing a slightly stronger 4.21 ERA across 94 appearances in the minors before he was outrighted to the minors in late 2015. He elected free agency shortly thereafter but would not return to the majors until 2021, when he joined the Yankees as a member of their bullpen.
Luetge enjoyed the best seasons of his career in the Bronx as he pitched to a 2.71 ERA and 2.92 FIP across 129 2/3 innings of work from during the 2021 and ’22 seasons. He struck out 25% of batters faced across those two seasons while walking just 5.8%, numbers impressive enough to earn him plenty of high-leverage opportunities with the club. Luetge’s tenure in New York came to a surprising end during the 2022-23 offseason when the Yankees designated him for assignment to make room for Tommy Kahnle on the 40-man roster.
He was traded to the Braves shortly thereafter and opened the 2023 campaign in their bullpen, though he didn’t last long on the club’s roster after allowing eleven runs in 9 2/3 innings of work during his first nine outings with the club. He was outrighted to Triple-A and remained with the Braves for the rest of the season. He returned to the big league club after the All Star break and pitched four scoreless innings across three appearances down the stretch, though that wasn’t enough for the club to retain him on the 40-man roster headed into the offseason. Luetge was outrighted off the club’s roster once again in late September and elected free agency the next month.
Now, Luetge returns to the AL East in search of his next big league role. The Red Sox only have one left-handed relief option currently expected to make their major league bullpen in Brennan Bernardino. Luetge figures to join fellow non-roster southpaws Jorge Benitez and Cam Booser in the club’s bullpen competition this spring alongside Bernardino and Joe Jacques, both of whom are already on the club’s 40-man roster. If Luetge can return to the form he flashed during his time in New York, it would be a huge boon for a Boston club that posted a 4.18 ERA out of the bullpen last year, a figure that ranked just 16th in the majors.
FULL THROTTLE BABYYYYYYYYYYYYY
There’s always the chance Henry’s big plan is to get some PGA guys to hit baseballs from the mound at the catcher…. right?
REDSOX NATION (who built this team over the last 124 years and many generations across New England & the world) IS BOYCOTTING EVERYTHING REDSOX until they get competitive and real. WE will not be spending time or money on a zero effort by ownership. No Games at Fenway, No games on NESN, No games though streaming services like MLB Ticket, No Merchandise, No Fenway South…NOTHING! Your 1st clue was TRUCK DAY with 50 to 75 people related to those moving things for the team. No self respecting REDSOX NATION member would condone and enable the cheap actions of ownership by spending time or money in 2024. WE WILL BE CHECKING BOX SCORES for free & WAITING for news that John Henry has once again become worthy of OUR support by supporting OUR Team. Without US John, FSG revenues will dry up in short order, views down, spending down, revenue from Fenway shrivel, Will Golf, Soccer & Hockey be enough for FSG? You’re about to find out! FOUR!
John Henry is just shaking in his billion-dollar boots. “Baseball guru” has started an insurrection. To prophase William Dawes: “The guru is coming. The guru is coming.”
Calm down oddball.
PK – Prophase?
Is that like the opposite of Amateurphase?
You seem to think you speak for an awful lot of people.
You might be boycotting the Red Sox but good luck convincing many other to do the same thing. Heard many say the same thing about the NFL, the NBA and numerous teams of all leagues and attendance and viewership always holds. Good luck on your boycott
The NFL lost 2.17 Billion because of the kneeling bs. Regardless if the ratings have bounced back that’s a shipton of money.
I haven’t watched a snap in over 4 years. Obviously, people can choose what to do for themselves. I am not boycotting watching games. I am just not pretending this team is good, has a chance, or that management tried to win the last 2 years or this year.
Bob – I think it depends WHEN the boycotting begins.
For instance Red Sox season ticket holders were lied to by the Red Sox until after the deadline to renew tickets passed. Many of them renewed because of all the talk about the Red Sox signing Ohtani, Yama,
Boycotts do work, but timing is everything.
Silas – Yep, and NBA ratings crashed more than 40% because of all the politicizing social justice crap.
@Fever Pitch— I live in the Pittsburgh area. There has been talk about boycotts because of Nutting the owner for years. They never really worked as there was never a true organized effort for a boycott. If the team totally sucks, people find other things to do naturally because people don’t want to go if the team has no chance to winIf there are interesting players and they get competitive, fans start going in droves again. Like you say, it is more timing of how the players are performing at the moment than the result of an organized boycott. To get mad over Otahni or Yama not signing and want to say Management lied to you, I would say you are putting too much blame on the team. Ohtani wanted to stay in LA. He also had a hand in recruiting Yamamoto as well. About another dozen teams had fan bases that thought they had at least on of those two signed as well. Fans think teams can just sign any player without considering what the player really wants. It is not always pure dollars that makes a player decide where to sign.
Many of them renewed because of all the talk about the Red Sox signing Ohtani
======================
I don’t remember the RS saying they were going to sign Ohtani.
Your handle rubs salt it the 31+ year old wounds. Thank you very much!!!
Rob – Pirates have always been my favorite NL team, and PNC is one of my favorite parks.
As for Ohtani and Yama, the Red Sox didn’t even make offers like the Yankees and Mets did. They didn’t even meet with Yama, and not sure if they even met with Ohtani despite so many reporters, analysts and players viewing the Red Sox as a favorite for signing him.
I’m still waiting to see if they sign Monty or Snell, but it sure does seem like neither is happening. Which means the team with the 3rd-highest revenue in MLB did basically nothing to improve upon consecutive last place finishes.
Joe – The Red Sox didn’t specifically mention any player. No team publicly states “We will sign so-and-so”.
However the Red Sox certainly indicated they’d finally be spending to improve the team, and plenty of reports and players indicated the Red Sox were favorites for Ohtani or Yama along with several other high profile free agents.
As usual, the Red Sox lied.
Hmm. Should I write “full throttle” or “Bring out the Duck Boats” to be funny? It’s so hard to decide.
Is the majority of this board really so simple minded?
Now all we need is Troll Free to write ten 2000 word posts and Fever Pitch Guy to write 30 posts, all using way too many exclamation points and we are good to go.
“is the majority of this board really so simple minded?”
Apparently.
ICON – Or maybe Icon can write yet another condescending post that makes him feel good about himself because he lacks self confidence in his baseball knowledge and his appearance. You probably drive a hummer!!! hahahaha
Hey, at least you are dealing with your issues!!! hahahaha
Icon posts more complaints than actual baseball knowledge, then claims the forum is simple-minded. Look in a mirror. Good grief.
How could Chaim do this
Bring out the duck boats at full throttle
you left out too that they use too many words in all caps
It’s not the board, it’s red Sox nation these days. Entitled and pathetic. Most of them weren’t even alive in 80s and 90s when this team was even worse.
naw Tang. respectfully disagree. It’s mostly the board and loud mouths on sports talk radio
Can I get a AMEN!!!!
I got nothing… Braiser signed….
Speak for yourself tool.
REDSOX NATION (who built this team over the last 124 years and many generations across New England & the world) IS BOYCOTTING EVERYTHING REDSOX until they get competitive and real. WE will not be spending time or money on a zero effort by ownership. No Games at Fenway, No games on NESN, No games though streaming services like MLB Ticket, No Merchandise, No Fenway South…NOTHING! Your 1st clue was TRUCK DAY with 50 to 75 people related to those moving things for the team. No self respecting REDSOX NATION member would condone and enable the cheap actions of ownership by spending time or money in 2024. WE WILL BE CHECKING BOX SCORES for free & WAITING for news that John Henry has once again become worthy of OUR support by supporting OUR Team. Without US John, FSG revenues will dry up in short order, views down, spending down, revenue from Fenway shrivel, Will Golf, Soccer & Hockey be enough for FSG? You’re about to find out! FOUR!
Baseballguru:
FSG officially owns no share in the minor league teams for Boston – Salem, Portland, Worcester…. all are fair game without giving one thin dime to John Henry and the rest of the interest holders in FSG.
The Salem Red Sox are owned by Fenway Sports Group, who also own the major league club, while the other three affiliates are independently owned.
Wrong baseballguru.
In March of 2023 FSG sold the Salem club to Diamond Holdings, same group that bought the AA team, and, this offseason bought FSG’s interest in worcester along with all the other minor partners except lucchino & 2 others, dropping lucchino to a minor partner in the process.
GASox – Why do you think they sold all the minor league interests? They needed the cash? Or the franchises weren’t profitable?
Fever – I believe a mixture of both.
1) mlb increased what milb players were due to recieve in terms of benefits, stipends, living arrangements, etc, raising costs somewhat.
2) milb teams aren’t huge money makers if you compare what the asset is worth to the types of yearly net income you get back, then compare that expected return to other opportunities
3) bringing us to the ‘other opportunities’…. the PGA Enterprises deal is where I think all the money from selling out to diamond went. I suspect the rate of return on the PGA thing has much greater potential than low level minor league teams.
Remember, FSG was a minority stakeholder in the woosox. So their rate of return there was probably not much. BUT, their stake was essential to Diamond wresting control away from Lucchino, and, probably commanded a premium accordingly. Just like any business, the shares that put you over the top and get control are worth more than face value, and I suspect Henry capitalized on that due to his trading background.
GASox – Outstanding info as always!
@ baseballguru
Then you will complain when they cut payroll further, because revenue was down.
stymee – While I know you’re being facetious, it does allow me to broach a subject which I have yet to see discussed in this forum.
All reports and indications late last year pointed to the Red Sox planning to increase spending because a) They didn’t want to finish last a third straight season and b) They had reset the CBT after Bloom’s Blunder.
Some believe the plan changed because of financial shortfalls with one or more of the other FSG entities.
However, is it possible that sometime around October/November the Red Sox Q3 financials were completed and they ended up a lot worse than expected … resulting in ownership’s pivot from increasing the payroll in 2025 to decreasing it? I do believe there’s an excellent chance that’s exactly what happened.
is it possible that sometime around October/November the Red Sox Q3 financials were completed and they ended up a lot worse than expected …
==========================
Very unlikely. I can prepare a FS 6 months in advance without missing by more than a couple of percentage points. The only big change would be making or not making the playoffs, and that is known by the end of August.
Joe – Doing the books for a MLB team is a lot different than doing it for a manufacturer or service provider.
Ticket revenue is heavily dependent on walkup sales, which are heavily dependent on weather and other factors such as promotions, player injuries, and how well (or poorly) the team is playing.
You also have convoluted one-off revenue streams such as the Mass Mutual promotion which could be anywhere between $10M-$20M based on performance bonuses.
And when dealing with a 112-year-old park, major maintenance and repairs could crop up at any time.
LOL!
I can’t wait for opening day.
One of my claims to fame is that I was upstairs in LF for Game 6. If I can live thru that, I can live with a .500 season.
And if we don’t win another WSC this year, I will just have to wear one of my other WSC sweatshirts.
Joe – Which sweater will you choose, 2009 or one between 1996-2000?
I am pretty sure we didn’t win in those years, so I don’t know where you are headed with this.
Joe – Note the years. Great comment Fever!!!!
TF – Thank you!! I like Joe, but he tries a little too hard to convince people here that he’s a Red Sox fan so I hafta razz him once in a while. All in good fun of course.
“The Red Sox won in 2018 so I don’t care if they finish last again for the 4th time in 5 seasons” – said no Red Sox fan ever.
1996-2000 and 2009?
I don’t know what those years connate.
The blue agave Full Throttle is a winner. Better than Monster anyway
Yankees should have brought him back.
They traded him when he was a useful arm. Players want a clearer path to play in the majors again.
The Yankees got the best of him. When it comes to bullpen arms, they got it down to a science.
He could have been in Monument Park.
Guarantee they aren’t top 10 this year in bullpen era or FIP. Bookmark it
That’s right. Never underestimate this stadium or this ownership group
It’s all coming together now. Proof the Sox are making a run for the series!
dude, write “full throttle” Its really funny.
Guys this move puts us in serious contention now. Holy cow that needle finally moved today. Smdh are you serious right now
Dude, write “full throttle” It gets lots of upvotes.
“Dude” your schtick is tiring. Move on.
Not as tiring as people who continue to write full throttle. That got stale months ago.
Not as stale as your Mom
wow! a your momma joke. Got any titanic zingers to throw at me with since you’re hitting these crazes at the height of their popularity?
Nah she still stale.
and you still not funny
Babe – Nice job with the sarcasm. Keep it up because it annoys Icon the terrible.
“Nice job with the sarcasm”
It is?
APBA – Do I need to explain sarcasm? Here I thought I only had to teach guys like you baseball!!! hahaha
The team went from 108 to crap and they are doing nothing to improve but insignificant moves made famous by our last pretender GM. Yeah, it’s good sarcasm considering the two dbags that have been GM since DD.
Ownership should be pushed to replace Breslow so we don’t have to wait four more years for hope.
I understand sarcasm. Do you need it explained?
What I was commenting on was the “Nice Job” part. Its the same basic “Full Throttle” sarcasm that’s been said dozens of times now. What reason did it need a kudos?
Savings!!
Never knew why Yankees let him go
Instead of investing in one good pitcher, let’s invest in 5 minor league pitchers who are nothing more than mediocre, and see which one is better equipped for the Majors. That’s smart.
Instead of investing in one good pitcher, let’s invest in 5 minor league pitchers
=========================
Please don’t tell me that you think the cost for 5 minor league pitchers equals the cost for one good MLB pitcher.
@JoeBrady It doesn’t, but the concept itself is flawed and it’s a waste of roster space.
As long as he is not on the 4–man, it makes no difference to me.
yes, plan the parade baby, take that baltimore, i knew tthe red sox will answer to the burnes trade and boy they did it.
Yankees loss others gain. One man’s garbage is another man’s treasure.
Can’t be worse than Bleier, Rodriguez, Walter, Murphy or Jacques was last season
Rsox – The Red Sox were so close to getting Hader, they came up only about $95M short.
Fever – don’t you need to add some value for the player variation of getting ‘the fenway experience’ ???
I think Henry expects the players to come, at a discount, and regardless of the resources spent towards on-field product and its quality, just like for the fans because of ‘the fenway experience.’
GASox – There’s no doubt in my mind the Sox are waiting for all other teams to sign the players they want at fair value, and whatever is left the Sox will sign at a slight discount. Same approach as Bloom, they will not compete with other teams for players.
Fever, you don’t need a closer when you’re about to lose 55-60% of your games.
Dick Radatz.
whyhayzee – Loved him!!!!
Insane – I get what you’re saying, it’s probably more accurate to say you don’t need a really good closer. It’s a role, just like DH and starting pitcher. Somebody has to fill it, unless they go back to Theo’s “Closer By Committee” failure.
Fever Pitch Guy3 hours ago
Rsox – The Red Sox were so close to getting Hader
==========================
On a team that probably should trade their current closer, why would we want Hader?
Joe – So when the team improves by spending money they have an awesome relief corp to compete with the AL East.
Had the team dropped money on two SP1 types, Chapman and Hader it would be right in the mix for the division in 2024. Instead Breslow tossed away $42.1MM on guys we didn’t need that badly in comparison to SP1/2, 3B and lefty late inning guys. Let Kenley go and roll into 4 more years of Hader. It could have been a beautiful thing but only if Breslow does his job and fixes the holes.
Joe – You honestly didn’t know I was being facetious?
BTW – If the Sox wanted to win and weren’t being cheapskates, I’d love to have Hader. I have often said Mariano was the most valuable of the Core Four, having a lights out closer is more valuable than anything.
What matters most is that they “showed interest.”
REDSOX NATION (who built this team over the last 124 years and many generations across New England & the world) IS BOYCOTTING EVERYTHING REDSOX until they get competitive and real. WE will not be spending time or money on a zero effort by ownership. No Games at Fenway, No games on NESN, No games though streaming services like MLB Ticket, No Merchandise, No Fenway South…NOTHING! Your 1st clue was TRUCK DAY with 50 to 75 people related to those moving things for the team. No self respecting REDSOX NATION member would condone and enable the cheap actions of ownership by spending time or money in 2024. WE WILL BE CHECKING BOX SCORES for free & WAITING for news that John Henry has once again become worthy of OUR support by supporting OUR Team. Without US John, FSG revenues will dry up in short order, views down, spending down, revenue from Fenway shrivel, Will Golf, Soccer & Hockey be enough for FSG? You’re about to find out! FOUR!
Empty throttle
another BBB bites the dust
So do we give Breslow PARTIAL credit for addressing the lack of lefty relievers or was everyone thinking he should set his goals a bit higher for the positions open?
7 years – 5 bad and the other 2 with the Yankees were good.
Control left him after rookie ball and never really came back.
A journeyman who has now included Boston in his travels.
I think he got screwed over by ownership on a budget basis. I still hope to hear montgomery comes aboard, but, absolute worst case scenario would be Boston handing out a pillow contract of 1 year that they sign deep into ST.
Players who miss normal ST don’t usually pitch well the first year of their deals looking at many of boras’ clients that went down that road. At least he’s not a QO guy so they’d be eligible to tag him with one, but, really they need some longer term stability.
Give him 5/120 or so and get it done.
GASox – I agree ownership screwed him over but I still think he would have taken the job anyway. Gain the experience, build the resume, then GTFO to a team that wants to win.
Fever – Agreed. Now we’ve had the GM of GMs replaced by a rookie who sucked replaced by a rookie that sucked.
We had a string of good managers then we got Cora.
We had 100 year of bad owners, 15 years of good ownership and we’re back to 100 years of bad owners.
2104 is just around the corner!!
TF – I’ve looked into the cost of freezing my head after I’m gone, so I can be brought back to life for that 2104 championship!
Not happening.
Could the Red Sox be the new Oakland A’s?
No.. the red sox like thier ballpark
sacrifice – Can’t be the new A’s because we have Cora so a strong work ethic is missing along with money. Oh, and did I mention we don’t have integrity as a virtue of the manager therefore setting a fine example for all the young players.
Oakland is a huge step up.
Who needs Ohtani when you can have Luetge?
With this signing we all Mickey Mouse is alive and well in Boston this year.
Burned up by Boonedoggle, cast aside before he was injured. Surprised the Braves were willing to trade for a piece of blackened toast. Now we’ll see if he’s recovered yet. Kind of doubt it, but worth a flyer. Just don’t make him pitch 120 innings over two years, ok? Yeesh.
whyhayzee4 hours ago
Burned up by Boonedoggle,
=========================
In all fairness, that is the life and value of fringy RP pitchers. It was the NYY that helped him accumulate his $3.5M in career earnings, plus whatever benefits accrue from his 4+ year of service time.
Yes, but this is why they fail in the postseason. They treat every regular season game as a must win and perpetually overuse their effective relievers. They never expand their bullpen use enough to have their most effective guys fresher for the playoffs. This goes back to Joe Torre. The best teams manage their 60 losses as well as their 100 wins. That’s why championship teams always have crappy pitchers on them. There’s hundreds of innings that just don’t count. Have as many of those innings as possible pitched by guys you don’t need in the postseason.
AA got fleeced on the Luetge experiment. Guy was horrible for the Braves.
Red Sox are securing their hold on last place.
Does it matter what place you are in if you don’t make the playoffs? Is a season considered successful if you come in second place but don’t make the playoffs?
Aggee – Yes, it does, and yes, it is at least considered much more so.
Coming in second means you were close to a postseason berth and were trying.
Coming in last means you had no realistic shot, and, something is very wrong considering the financial income resources you had available.
a season is a season. and a win always make it more enjoyable than a loss
As a Yankee fan, we share common goal as Red Sox fans, now if the team just doesn’t play well for whatever reason, you live with it, but if my team were making an all-out effort to suck, I wouldn’t be too happy about it.
Yankees – I agree, theres a big difference between on the one hand, making moves and an injury or unexpected result happens, or your manager screws some things up, or whatever, and on the other hand ownership stands in the way and dictates the club spins its wheels.
Henry wants to have the pipeline of a revenue sharing recipient that gets basically a bonus 2nd rounder every year, either at the front or back of round, and, gets preferential treatment on comp picks and fa signing penalties. Problem is, it takes a long time to develop the staff and coaching to develop guys the same, AND, Boston is never going to get those small market perks no matter how much he makes the team behave like it js.
Yankee – Your experience is nothing like the post DD experience in Boston.
You signed Judge. We gave away Mookie and it cost us 5 years of being competitive. Then Bloom gave away the rest of the 2018 roster except the one guy who we could have let go and improved our defense significantly. Now he’s an anvil hanging around our payroll neck. Blooms clearing of the 2018 roster has truly cost the organization 10 years of success. This is exactly how an organization can go on a 100 year losing streak or an 86 year losing streak. Bad decision making and not spending good money to fix the bad money choices. At least the Yankees, just keep throwing dollar bills at all the players dancing in front of them in the off season so they can improve things after a mistake.
I didn’t say we shared the same experience I said we shared the same goals
Look no Red Sox fan should be surprised by what Bloom did, he was brought in to mimic the success of the team he was hired from, the Rays
Henry, like our man Steinbrenner have wondered out loud why it is necessary to spend 300 million when the Rays proved a team can be successful spending 100 million,
Now of course the thought process was if Bloom could do what he did in Tampa on their budget imagine what he could accomplish on a Red Sox budget.
Trading Mookie was the first shot across the bow to prove that thought process. Years later you guys can look over the results and see the utter failure that process was, but at least it was a process, now it looks like Henry has simply given up. He looks up and down the AL east and sees the amount of money he will have to spend to get immediately get back in it and he wants no part of it.
Unless your team somehow manages to use smoke and mirrors to attain some success, this is going to be an abysmal season for you guys,
TF – You’ll like this project I recently did for another site.
As you know, Corey Kluber recently announced his retirement.
It got me thinking about all the players acquired by Bloom who played their last MLB game with the Red Sox. The list is amazing, and shows how bad Bloom was trying to find hidden treasures.
Kluber is the only player from the 2023 team that played his last MLB game with the Red Sox and retired, the rest are all players from the 2020-2022 Red Sox teams who never played another MLB game after leaving the Red Sox. ENJOY!!
Jaylin Davis
Travis Shaw
Hansel Robles
Hiro Sawamura
Phillips Valdez
Frank German
Austin Davis
Michael Feliz
Tyler Danish
Danny Santana
Jack Lopez
Brandon Workman
Stephen Gonsalves
Brandon Brennan
Brad Peacock
Cesar Puello
Deivy Grullon
Robinson Leyer
Kyle Hart
Matt Hall
Andrew Triggs
Marcus Walden
Talk about picking through the trash! All these guys were DONE and yet Bloom is the only one that didn’t realize it.
Fever – WOW great post!! Great research!!
Dumpster diving to the max.
Now think about all the people who criticized us for being critical of Bloom after the Mookie deal. How can so many be so wrong? That’s what I fear about Breslow. The Breslow apologists are smaller in volume than the Bloom apologists were four years ago but they still haven’t learned how to identify problem hires. We saw the same lack of common sense related to new hires when Cora was brought aboard. It takes but a small series of mistakes to yell stop the presses this guy has got to go but most fans HOPE things will get better in time. It’s a very naive viewpoint. If a guy dribbles the ball off his foot four times in a row going down the court you don’t say let him stay 3 years because he’ll get better. You cut him and get a real point guard. Same with Managers, GMs, coaches and players. It’s time for Cora to be gone. Devers to be off 3B and a new GM who will act on obvious problems.
Twice I have tried to go in with a positive attitude for the GMs and twice I’ve been completely disappointed. Lets hope the leash on Breslow is much shorter. And for all you fans that say hey we just spent a bunch of money on Devers so we aren’t going to move him I say “Don’t quit your day job!!” That’s about as backward of a thought process as anyone can have. Breslow just sat down in Bloom spot at the poker table and all the money lost by Bloom SHOULD NOT impact how he approaches the future hands. Devers wasted money is a done deal. Minimize the pain to fans and move him to DH. You won’t get the money back but you can limit the damage. Same with Cora. Rip up his contract and fire him. The wrong choice was made in the past and can be fixed immediately to limit the damage to the organization.
My fear is that based on the way the owners treated DD (while he was taking them to 3 unprecedented division titles and a ring) there will be no EXPERIENCED GM who will come to Boston because they know they won’t be appreciated.
I remember thinking after the world series win in 2018 that most people were associating Boston’s greatness with DD not Henry and based on all the cold shoulders when they were in public together it sure seemed like jealousy on the owner’s part. It turns out it was simple foreshadowing..
Oh well, the past is the past and can’t be altered. You can’t fix things until you recognize they are broken and then you must have the motivation to make the improvements. Right now, I am not sure ownership recognizes a problem or is willing to do the RIGHT thing to fix it. They are business men. You don’t hire an experienced firm to restructure your company, you find one that has done it before and can make it happen quickly because time is money. For Boston, the concept of time is money has not existed since they fired DD. Sitting on ones laurels rather than seeking sustained greatness is what the owners did while preaching that they were seeking sustained greatness. How bizarre is that!!!
Oh Well.
Fantastic list!!!
TF – Thank you!
I will likely be adding several names to the list after this season, because there will no doubt be several players from last year’s Red Sox team that will never again play in a MLB game.
Whooopie!!!
The Sox used to be fun.
The Red Sox are still fun.
The Red Sox fans? Not so very much.
Before we became baseball’s uber team, folks just showed up, had a couple of beverages, and had a good time.
Now, without excessive spending and a WSC every year, the new fans have meltdowns. Who’d have thought that RS fans would whine more than Yankee fans?
That’s pushing it Joe… then again you may be on to something… still unhinged but okay that Brais is in a better place….
oimtiant – Brais like Mookie, JD and Joe Kelly has gone to a better place. Maybe no rings but always a playoff!!!
TF – JD hasn’t signed with anyone yet! Seems like it’s between the Angels and Mets.
Fever – All I hope for JD is that he goes to a team with a manager that treats him fairly and a GM that values his skills but even more his knowledge and ability to mentor.
I will always be thankful for JD because after Papi retired things looked really bleak and JD turned that around in ONE season and at a below market cost and despite Cora making it so much harder with his daily line-up mistakes.
“The Red Sox are still fun”
If you like losing.
And if you don’t like reading people’s opinions you don’t agree with then don’t.
And it’s beyond clear they are no longer acting like a large market franchise. It’s a first for alot of fans so they are stating their opinion.
Don’t like it? Too effing bad.
And if you don’t like reading people’s opinions you don’t agree with then don’t.
=================================
And if you don’t like me commenting on other people’s opinions, feel free to not read them.
“And if you don’t like reading people’s opinions you don’t agree with then don’t.”
=≈==================
How will you know you don’t agree with it unless you read it?
“they are no longer acting like a large market franchise”
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The Red Sox will spend $200M on player payroll again this year. Not a small market franchise. They need to spend it better.
More idiocy. How much for another last place finish?
You are literally complaining about people complaining.
Lame.
“How much for another last place finish?”
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I think that’s what John Henry has been asking. I doubt he spends more than $220M on player payroll until the money gets spent better. They are at $198.2M now per Roster Resource.
Suit, here’s the only problem I have with how you teed things up for henry…
At some point you need to admit as an owner 2 things:
1) when you bring in new leadership because the prior front office screwed some thing(s) up, you need to adequately fund that new front office so they don’t have a handful of dead seasons while the clock runs out on prior PBO/GM’s mistakes.
2) sometimes that means realizing a certain amount of payroll is dead money/bad contracts the new guy can’t move. So, as long as operating income can cover it, you pay that above and beyond the payroll needed to compete.
When DD came to town, the deals from panda and Hanley weren’t held against him – the team.spent over the cap because of the dead/bad money inherited, BUT, the actual payroll to pay talent to advance the team? It was available, and, reasonable when you exclude the dead $$$.
When Breslow came in he was hampered with 3 atrocious deals – Sale, Story, Devers. Then he had some bad deals weighing in like Jansen.
Between those 4 guys, you’re looking at over $100 million in BAD contracts that are WAY underwater.
You don’t hand breslow a $325m check to pay off that money. But you also don’t say ‘keep it at 190ish including whatever of that money you’re stuck with and can’t move via trade.
GA: John Henry is a business man and I think he looks to run his businesses better. We know John Henry is impressed with the Rays as he hired Bloom. John Henry sees:
2023:
Rays: 99 wins, $130.3M CBT payroll
Bos: 78 wins, $223.8M
2022:
Rays: 86 wins, $118.7M
Bos: 78 wins, $235.8M
2021:
Rays: 100 wins, $88.6M
Bos: 92 wins, $211.6M
He also sees what is going on in the AL East:
2023:
O’s 101 wins, $87.5M CBT payroll
Rays 99 wins, $130.3M
Tor 89 wins, $246M
NYY 82 wins, $293.8M
Bos 78 wins, $223.8M
So, John Henry sees the two teams that built through the farm system and player development winning more games than the Red Sox while spending much less. What would a good business man do when he sees that? Try to be more like them which I think they are. However, I think John Henry plans to significantly outspend them and be much better than them. The Yankees spent $70M more than the Red Sox last year and only won 4 more games. Spending more does not look like the answer. I don’t think he feels compelled to spend more to overcome past bad deals and I’m not sure it’s fair to expect that.
Also, you and I have no idea what Breslow’s spending limit is. They may still sign Montgomery, but I doubt that will quiet any of the negativity.
GA: You point out 3 deals that are bad in your opinion. Why would you expect John Henry to continue handing out those kinds of contracts when he sees how bad they can go? I’m just putting myself in John Henry’s shoes and he does appear to be making some sense.
Joe – We like to read them. It’s the comics section of the paper. Thank you.
All – Nice job. Spending it better is only part of it though. They need to manage the organization better by doing the obvious fixes like firing Cora and moving Devers.
We could spend $300MM and if we have Cora as manager and Devers at 3B, we might not make the playoffs. Make the two simple moves, and spending $220 could get you a playoff spot.
Boxscore – Welcome to my world!!! I’ve been complaining since DD got fired and some fans think they have the right to tell me when I can and can’t complain.
If this were the old days, we’d have torches and be storming the castle to remove the King and Queen and find ones that want to run the kingdom like we did for 15 years starting in 2004!!!
All – Spotrac has them at $185.6MM. That includes the $42.1MM Breslow has already wasted. So spin back the clock to before Breslow wasted any money and the available money to get SP1, SP2 and Chapman was $237 less $143.5MM or roughly $90MM.
Could you get two SP1s and Chapman for less than $90MM per year? I think you could have been close to $20MM under or a $220MM ish payroll with the proper players but Breslow CHOSE to go in HIS OWN direction not in the direction of what is needed. That’s why 2024 will suck.
GA – Great post.
DD did ignore RETAINED PAYROLL (official name for dead contracts). Those were for players NOT on the roster.
Bloom made three horrendous contracts for Devers, Story and Yoshida that total $70.618MM. Devers in 2024 is not likely to perform to his pay, Story is almost certainly not going to perform to his pay and Yoshida might perform to his pay but is redundant to Devers so he is a complete waste of payroll.
Breslow had no Panda orHanley type deals coming in as GM like both DD and Bloom had. He was free and clear of dead contracts other than roughly $7MM owed JT, Hosmer and Rodriguez.
He chose to add $17MM to the dead contracts part of the ledger when he gave away Sale. After a decade of dealing with pay downs you would think someone would have stopped him and said that’s incredibly stupid but he did it any way thus ruining his label of genius and replacing it with idiot.
So Breslow had a choice when he took the job. He could try to fix the pieces broken by Bloom or he could create an image of a team in his head and pursue that no matter how long it was to take. Bloom didn’t have the same choices because he started with a World Champion team and chose to tear it down. Breslow, like Bloom, has now gone in his own direction and I don’t believe we really know whether he is simply moving puzzle pieces around to make the picture look like what’s in his head or he is truly constrained by money and has chosen to bite the bullet in year one and experiment only. It’s hard to tell since nothing he’s done so far is logical in that it fixes a hole. Nothing is logical in that it moves high priced players other than Verdugo. Nothing is logical in that key free moves are not being completed to instantly improve the team.
So what is in Breslow’s head? I guess his observation period isn’t over as he watches the other AL East teams pull farther in front of us with their new additions. Maybe we should get him some binoculars so he can keep tabs on the other AL East teams as they approach the horizon.
All – Your logic is missing a piece.
You assume Henry has limited money for players other than for Mookie.
I don’t believe he has. I think the GMs haven’t been good enough at their jobs to work with agents to agree to deals and then go for the funding. Think about the Devers contract and how outrageously ridiculous it is. He funded it. Think about Story. He funded it. Think about Price and Sale for DD. He funded it. Think about how much over pay is built into Breslow’s three contracts so far, he funded it.
I have yet to see EVIDENCE that he is saying no, EVER!!! Well except in Mookie’s case. I think we have hired two really bad GMs who have no clue how to put together a winner and have instead tried to prove their worth by finding diamonds in the rough and turning them into gems. Think of the size of the egos on guys like Bloom and Breslow. Normal competitors like DD fund things to win not to be considered a genius. I don’t think that’s the case for these last two clowns. I think they are shooting at some type of legacy not a championship team. We KNOW Bloom completely failed at building a winning roster. Now we are seeing some bizarre long shot moves by Breslow to build a winning roster. Why?
Wouldn’t it make more sense to get blue chip players that cost a lot rather than risky guys that are medium expensive?
Henry has the finger pointed at him for constraining the money thanks to awkward public addresses but in actuality there is no evidence of the constraints since Breslow over spent on his first three contracts just like Bloom did throughout his tenure.
There are only so many pink hats
Suit – you’re ignoring the inherent advantages of a true small market club, not just a large market club that acts like a small market one.
Every year you get an EXTRA draft pick at the top of the draft. This means you get to play more with bonus pool and slot bonuses as well, which improves the quality of who your later round picks can be.
You get favorable terms on QO players, both in terms of compensation when they go, and what you pay if you decide to bring one in of your own.
No revenue sharing payor can compete with that to get equal outcome. You will NEVER get the same pipeline.
Suit – because it’s a cost of doing business.
The team can absorb those losses, and, it’s what you HAVE to do if you’re going to compete. You can even make a team friendly deal for a talented guy (pedroia) and some d-bag trash player (machado) makes an interntionally dirty play and kills your investment.
No contract is worry free.
For all the ‘ooooh, look at the rays’ on their methods, how many rings did they win? How many rings have their diaspora won without embracing big ticket free agent spending?
GA: You make some good points. I think the advantage may have swung to small market teams. They get more young players while large market teams get free agents on deals that become underwater.
GA: The Rays have won 99 games 2 of the last 3 years. People should be paying attention to how they run things. Yet, you are trying to say it is all meaningless without a championship. I think that is too narrow of a view.
Suit – I’m not saying that with the rays model, no trophy means it’s meaningless, I’m saying going down that road and planning to only emulate their model doesn’t quite get you over the hump.
GA: As I said above, I think the Red Sox will continue to significantly outspend the Rays and that should make them much better than the Rays as they can outspend them on free agents and player development. The Rays will still have the advantage of extra draft picks as you pointed out. I think O’s get extra picks too.
What I don’t get is the arrogance and mocking like their righteous cos they don’t mind losing. Talk about stupidity….
Box – He’s just trolling.
When everyone knew Bloom/Henry were destroying the franchise, he loved every minute of it and always supported everything they did.
And he loves to take shots at Sox fans, criticizing us for not being happy with last place finishes and not being happy with extremely talented and popular franchise players getting sent packing by Sox management.
Don’t let it get to you.
suit – You can inflate the 2024 payroll number all you want.
FACT is, as reported by MLBTR staff, the Red Sox right now have their lowest payroll in a decade.
Yes that’s right, lowest payroll since 2014.
You can’t spin that no matter how hard you try.
GASox – Excellent post and that’s EXACTLY what I wrote just a few days ago.
John Henry supported what Bloom did during his 4-year tenure, therefore John Henry screwed up, therefore John Henry should pay the price by reducing profits to put a competitive team on the field.
I’m keeping my promise, waiting a few more weeks, but when I keep getting emails from the Red Sox promoting ticket specials such as $50 for a package that includes two tickets, two hot dogs and two drinks, that tells me they are preparing for yet another last place finish.
suit – As long as you keep repeating, I will too.
Why would John Henry admire a Rays team that HASN’T WON A NON-COVID POSTSEASON SERIES SINCE 2008?
John Henry also admires an Oakland team (Beane) that hasn’t won a game in the ALCS since 1992. Do you see a pattern here? John Henry is an IDIOT for wanting to be like the Athletics and Rays.
As for the Orioles, the only reason they are good now with such a low payroll is because they went 253-455 from 2017-2021 including 3 of those years when they lost between 108-115 games. When you are that bad, you get really good draft picks. Is that what you want the Red Sox to do? Lose that many games so they will have good draft picks? Seriously?
suit – John Henry is an idiot when it comes to baseball decisions. He fired a HOF head of baseball ops and has now replaced him with back-to-back successors that had ZERO experience leading baseball ops.
Just because you give out stupid 9-figure contracts, it doesn’t mean you stop giving out contracts of more than $40M. Nobody is saying the contracts of Mookie, Lester, Manny, Pedro, Damon, JDM etc were bad contracts.
And Henry is the one who decided he wanted the Red Sox to make decisions based heavily on analytics, which again was DUMB because what worked for him as a commodities trader does NOT work when assembling a baseball team.
suit – Get more young players? I assume and hope you meant better young players.
But that drafting advantage small market teams have is offset by the fact they have to trade or let walk their homegrown stars because they can’t afford to extend hardly any of them.
And any time you trade a star for prospects, odds are not in your favor because the vast majority of prospects never pan out.
Fever – Still a TON of opening day tickets available too, any type someone wants, bleacher to Green monster.
At this point they’ve been for sale a LONG time too.
suit – What makes it meaningless is the fact the Rays haven’t been good enough to win a non-Covid postseason series in SIXTEEN YEARS.
You can keep ignoring that little fact all you want, they haven’t won a postseason series since 2008. Just like the Moneyball Athletics haven’t won an ALCS game since 1992.
But yeah, keep admiring those teams for their cheapness.
Fever, I’m reminded of my statistics for scientists and engineers course in college years and years ago.
At first, Henry wanted to make sure he built sustained success + revenue – the Sox were the only feather in his cap, and, he needed to show he was a worthy partner to get his way into other ventures – notably roush and later Liverpool. However, the point has passed to where now the goal isn’t peak revenue, it’s maximum profit.
Sort of the old textbook problems where your max revenue wasn’t always your max profit point, I think Henry is thinking a low low payroll may lose some fans and butts in the seats, but, the savings on payroll, payroll taxes, etc more than cover the lost income.
It stopped being about running a franchise, and, became more about running an investment pyramid. The goal isn’t championship, it’s ROI. And until losses from non-competitiveness exceed savings from costs to field the team, I’m starting not to expect a ton of changes.
GASox – If things really go south this season … players become unhappy, Cora loses the clubhouse again, etc .. will they try to shut off the Netflix cameras? I don’t think they’d legally be allowed.
What a year to pick for a documentary!
Fever – ANOTHER GREAT STAT for the AGES!!!!
TB has as many rings as you and I and you went one giant step forward from that with your data!!! thank you.
Awesome research.
Just being fair, but Sale was worth every penny he could ever ask for…………………when healthy. That was just horrible luck. No one anticipated what happened, and very very very very few people did not want Sale back with the team after how he performed over those seasons. He was a true ace and there were nearly zero red flags up for that deal when it was struck. Even his age at the time when the deal would have expired seemed reasonable. I make that deal without hesitation 100 out of 100 times if he is healthy.
The Devers contract is abysmal. Not because of the dollars or years for a player that is strictly a DH, but because this deal was made as a panic reaction to not being willing to sign two players that were better, and more valuable. What makes this deal look far worse than it is, and it is bad, is when you think that money through an extension probably would have kept Betts if it was offered to him during his arbitration years. That less money would have secured Xander during his arbitration years through an extension, and we would probably be seeing Xander at third or second for a few more years as the prospects come up. The thinking here was so counterintuitive. If you had to lose any of these players, it was Devers without a doubt. He also would have garnered a very good return.
Story was an incredibly bad deal. Bloom admitted he was aware of the arm issue, making the deal one of the worst I have ever seen. This deal will go down in history no matter how Story performs as one of the most bone headed moves under the reasoning given by Bloom for making it. If the reasoning was to solve the second base problem once and for all and retain Xander, there would be a reasonable way to defend it, but Bloom expressly said otherwise, and for that, this is a legendary stupid deal.
Jansen is a who cares deal. We suck, we need a closer, so why not on a short 2 year. I didn’t care they made it, and I certainly would not have cared if they didn’t. In a world where the glass is half full or empty, what does it matter if Jansen is the sole reason we were able to reach the lofty levels of 78 wins, or the reason we didn’t reach 80. There wasn’t much better out there during dumpster diving period when most of the names come off the board, and if there was, we wouldn’t have signed it.
Fever: If you know anything about baseball, you know the postseason is a craps shoot. You refuse to admit that because you have no other argument. The 2004 Red Sox came back from a 3-0 series deficit against the Yankees who had more than 100 wins. Literally anything can happen in the postseason.
Fever: I use Roster Resource for payroll numbers as does MLBTR. I am not inflating anything. What is wrong with Roster Resource? Please explain. I think Roster Resource is laid out the best of payroll sites and I use it.
Fever: Is a 99 win team a good team? Is a 100 win team a good team?
You are saying things about me that I never said such as I admire teams for cheapness. I am explaining what I think is happening with the Red Sox from what I think is John Henry’s point of view.
William – Great post, but on the Jansen deal if it’s true that Bloom changed his mind about Nate because of the money he spent on Jansen, then that’s a huge huge Bloom Blunder. Sure jansen was an improvement to the bullpen, but we all knew it was a huge overpay and having Nate would have been much more beneficial.
suit – I’ve addressed the “crap shoot” excuse numerous times, although perhaps not with you specifically. It’s an excuse for continued postseason failure, either on an individual level or team level. Those overly obsessed with analytics use it as an excuse to try and discount repetitive postseason success or failure.
It’s unfortunate you are trying to discredit some of the greatest teams in MLB history including the 1996-2001 Yankees, the 2010-2014 Giants, and our own 2003-2008 Red Sox who SHOULD have won 4 championships instead of just two if not for Grady and Tito handing away ALCS Game 7’s on a silver platter. Those Red Sox teams weren’t “lucky”, they had some of the greatest postseason performers in MLB history.
What a sad reflection on society today with so many people blaming “luck” as an excuse for their failures. Good luck balances out with bad luck, that’s why you make your own fate.
Fever: You have not changed my mind. As far as I am concerned, anything can happen in a postseason series in baseball which makes it a great sport. I have not discredited any team. On the contrary, I am saying 100 win teams and 99 win teams like the Rays have had are good teams.
suit – It’s your source that is inflating, I pointed out the much higher estimates from RR.
Here’s the three major payroll sources:
Yours (RR) has $198M
fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/red-sox
Mine (Spotrac) has $186M
spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox//payroll
Cot’s has $190M
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WWRsQNsGZkWuJZwlY8–xVBXMJGjh230D45KiHTHuvY/edit#gid=1520401900
Subtract the $17M in Player Benefits and $1.7M Bonus Pool allocation and you have just $171M in 2024 payroll which is the lowest since 2014. My only beef is that you continue to say the 2024 payroll is in line with what the payroll has been every year …. clearly it’s not.
Actually I have a second beef, criticizing Sox fans for their unhappiness with Henry’s cheapness over the past 4 years. Maybe they will surprise us and sign Monty or Snell, we will know I’m guessing within the next couple weeks. I wouldn’t think those two players want to miss most of ST and have a delayed start to the regular season, which would obviously cost the players money.
suit – I don’t want to argue with you. Despite my belief that you have some connection to the Sox front office or FSG, I think you’re a good guy and I respect your politeness. Probably best to move on, I will try to refrain from discussing finances with you.
suit – For now, it would be nice for the Sox to simply get out of the cellar and have a winning record for the first time since 2021. Sadly that’s the goal right now, that’s where we are right now.
I am certain you have a different connection to the team than just being a fan, which would explain why winning is not a priority for you. As long as you respect my passion for winning, I will respect your choice to focus on the team from a financial standpoint.
Fever: How is Roster Resource inflating? I have not seen any case for which site is best from anyone. Can you explain why one is more accurate than the other? I find Spotrac confusing. The amount they conclude being under the CBT threshold didn’t make sense the last time I was there.
Fever: I have not criticized Red Sox fans. I disagree with the SPEND NOW point of view and try to show a different way of looking at things that is not so sure and negative. Disagreement is not criticism.
Suit: I’d like to get your take on something. You push against the as you say “SPEND NOW” crowd.
So answer me these questions:
BOS Fans are being charged MLB top tier ticket prices, and concession prices – yes or no?
It’s reasonable to expect revenue and profit exceed costs by a substantial amount (Cite to forbes, $500m+ revenue) especially with the reduced payroll – yes or no?
So, should fans expect in the near future to see some 350m-450m payrolls reflecting later using all that money being piggybanked by FSG right now and isn’t being spent on something we can watch, or, that directly improves the team?
If not, why is it acceptable to fleece fans with high prices, while spending low?
Fever: I assure you I have no connection to the Red Sox other than being a big fan. I have a passion for winning too. I want to see as many World Series championships as possible. I think the best way to get there is more through having a young core through the farm system and then signing free agents to finish off the team. I think having a good farm system and young core will lead to the biggest window for contention. I think the Red Sox should be building for the biggest window of contention. I think that means some down years where they get high draft picks.
As for finances, I think it is hard to blame John Henry for capping spending when he sees the Rays win 100 games for $88.6M. He is currently significantly outspending the Rays who have been kicking his tail. The Red Sox have been consistently spending around $200M. That is certainly not horrible as people on here would have us believe. I think these are pretty reasonable conclusions about the finances. I think they will spend more as they get in a better position to contend.
not so dire and negative
GA: I think the way to have a long window of contention is to build up the farm system which will lead to a young core. When that is in place, you trade the excess from the good farm system and sign free agents to fill the holes on the team. Spending money now because you have it may not be the best move. I want the longest window of contention. I think they are working toward that.
Fans don’t have to be fleeced. I haven’t been to Fenway since 2019.
GASox – Great post! The way most fans look at it, they are being charged premium prices for a non-premium product. Plus didn’t the Sox start charging something like $35 a month for NESN360 which is required for a huge portion of the fanbase to be able to watch the games?
Question is can the Red Sox charge those high ticket prices (and concessions) because of out-of-towners who come to cheer for the road team or come just to see a game at historic Fenway? I don’t think so, especially with Boston weather and no retractable roof.
The only comp would be the Cubs, but I don’t have a handle on their revenue or payroll like I do with the Sox.
suit – You’ve been proven wrong about the farm system time and time again. More often than not, prospects have more value as trade chips than actually getting promoted and contributing.
FACT: Some of the best teams in MLB the past several years have the worst RATED farm systems.
I picked 2022 rankings for a reason, look at the bottom rated systems.
mlb.com/news/farm-system-rankings-2022-midseason
Braves #27
Astros #29
Those are two of the most successful MLB teams over the past several years.
You think Braves fans give a crap about their farm system ranking? No, they are quite happy with their 6 consecutive division titles and their World Series championship.
How about Houston? Division champions 6 out of the past 7 years, 4 WS appearances and 2 World Championships. Not one Astros fan gives a crap about their farm system ranking.
Those two organizations are widely considered among the best run in MLB.
And BTW you apparently forgot, the 2004 Red Sox had virtually no drafted and homegrown stars. Without expensive acquisitions of Schilling, Pedro, Manny, Damon, Foulke and of course the free agent signing of Ortiz there is no WS championships in 2004 or 2007. It takes Top Ten spending to consistently contend for a title,
John Henry’s focus since late 2019 has been to make as much money as possible, there is something seriously wrong with you if you can’t even acknowledge that. His over-reliance on analytics and overall cheapness the past 4 1/2 years has gotten the Red Sox nowhere. It’s destroying the franchise. Moneyball hasn’t worked for Beane in 3 decades, yet Henry is still obsessed with it. He’s become one of the worst and most hated owners in MLB.
Fever: What have I been proven wrong about? A good farm system seems to be working well in the AL East:
2023:
O’s 101 wins, $87.5M CBT payroll
Rays 99 wins, $130.3M
Tor 89 wins, $246M
NYY 82 wins, $293.8M
Bos 78 wins, $223.8M
How can you say I am wrong when you see this? I think baseball is changing in that player development is at least as important as free agent spending. The Red Sox are getting left in the dust by teams spending way less than them. Maybe you can ignore this, but I can’t seem to. I will keep an open mind, but this is where I am now.
Suit, there’s two glaring problem with your pointing to payrolls/wins.
1) the red sox have NOT been trying to win since 2019. And even 2019 saw coras self inflicted wound in ST by failing to have pitchers get work in and all that flowed from that decision.
2) had the red sox focus been on winning, rather than tanking and taking on bad deals in search of prospect fodder, the win totals of their head to head opponents go down.
3) the Yankees were snake bit by injuries. Sometimes that happens and things go sideways, you’ve got to account for the occasional bad season.
Now, answer me this: how did the O’s and Ray’s fare in the postseason? Were they REALLY as good as their record would imply? Or was their record inflated by banking wins against the aaaa red sox and the injured yankees?
suit – I already pointed this out to you, perhaps you didn’t read it.
For instance RR has $15M for pre-arb player salaries, Spotrac has $10M and Cot’s has $9.7M.
RR is unreliable, which is probably why FG separates itself from RR by using the different name.
suit – Are you now denying calling Sox fans “whiners” and “complainers” and “entitled” because of their unhappiness with how this offseason has played out?
Be careful before answering, you know I’m pretty good at finding posts.
suit – You’ve been proven wrong that a highly ranked farm system is the key to sustained success. That’s what I was referencing in the above post.
I’ve already pointed out the many horrible years it took for Baltimore to accumulate enough young prospects to become good again. I asked you if that’s what you want the Red Sox to do as well, several years of losing over 100 games. I didn’t see an answer from you.
I’ve already pointed out the Rays haven’t won a legit postseason series since 2008.
As for the Yankees, it was a very rare misfire. Do I really need to point out how many years they’ve made the postseason over the past few decades?
You’re simply making excuses for ownership, just like you did for Bloom. It’s 4 years later and the Sox are in no better shape than they were at the end of 2019.
The team has acknowledged their errors, yet you still defend everything they do. You still refuse to acknowledge that winning is not a priority, making money is. It’s kinda sad.
GASox – Excellent post as always!
Did you see the article about Cora? He wants more than the $40M Counsell just got. There’s been zero discussion between him and the team about an extension. I really think he will get some stupid team to give him a monster contract as manager, and then he will be exposed as highly overrated just as Grady and Jimy (RIP) were after leaving Boston.
That would truly be the one silver lining if the Sox finish last as many expect.
The Braves were a dominant franchise for nearly 16 years in a row at one point, The farm was good when it started and contributed several players to the run. By the midpoint it was a shell of what it was in the minors but continued an extra several years by making excellent moves.
Having a great farm is always preferrable, but not the only path. There are plenty of examples of teams with weak systems rising and falling. The difference is usually the length of the windows and the management in charge of maintaining it. In the end it nearly always comes down to whether you can afford to keep the talent, and if not, the moves you make to replace those lost players.
Fever: You assume 2 are right because they are similar. I will see if I can figure out what the correct pre-arb salary total should be. Have you added it up yourself? If I can find the most accurate site, I will use it.
suit – They are estimates, there is no right or wrong. LOL!
It’s a matter of reasonableness.
No, I don’t think any of the three sites has an addition problem.
You know what would help? I looked through RR for final numbers from prior years, couldn’t find them. They have only estimates from prior years, not actuals. If you can find prior year final actuals on RR that would be helpful, I’d like to compare 2023 and 2022.
Fever: Yes, people here whine and complain. I think it is a waste of time and I have said I think all the negativity is bad for your health. Is pointing out whining and complaining criticizing or telling the truth? I think people should focus on something that makes them happy. It will be better for them and others won’t have to hear the complaining. If you don’t like your job, do you keep it and be miserable and complain to everyone or do you get another job? I don’t know if I said people here are entitled. I hope people think they are entitled to happiness and find things that make them happy instead of complaining about things that make them unhappy. I will look up the definition of whine. Maybe I am wrong about that, but there are certainly a lot of complainers here.
Suit, conpare whine with protest
I did, and, thought it was hilarious.
I wonder how many teams will look past 2017 though?
If breslow has any stones at all he will refuse to ink Cora to anything. Best outcome is Henry hires him to be his special assistant, they can both fool around with the soccer team and play with their balls in England.
Fever: I don’t waste my time making excuses for anything. Baltimore now has a big window of contention. I hope the Red Sox can get that well set up one day. To answer your question, if the Red Sox will get a longer window of contention by losing 100 games for several years, then yes do it. Whatever it takes to build a monster and Baltimore certainly looks like a monster.
Now you answer my questions: Is a 100 win team a good team? Is a 99 win team a good team? The Rays have done both of those in the last 3 years. You have double standard. You say the Rays are a failure, but you excuse the Yankees as having had a “misfire”. My answer is that a 99 win team is a very good team and anything can happen in a postseason series.
I don’t make excuses for anyone. I focus on the positive. There is a huge difference. I point out things I like to people who complain. For Bloom and Breslow, I point out that they seem to be building through the farm system rather than free agency. I think that is a better way to build.
Suit – remember, with the new CBA you can’t just tank to get to the top draft choice anymore.
The Os built their best star prospects by getting the #1 pick.
As for the Rays, riddle me this: if the rays win so many games, then the red sox should never need to tank to achieve the same pipeline shouldn’t they? The rays didnt…
Fever: You can go backwards in RR. You click on prior years at the top, but need to go back one year at a time. I would like to figure this out.
GA: Yes, I think things are set up more in favor of small market teams as I said to you the other day, but I hate the idea of relying on signing older free agents to long, expensive contracts that are high risk of being a waste of money and roster space.
Suit: that’s fine and well if you are a team like Oakland that can’t afford it. But, why exactly do you care how much money is spent? So, you spend money on guys. They outlive their usefulness and you eat the contract. LA had no trouble eating Bauer’s money, and that’s 2-3 bad contracts worth.
Do you get a share of what isn’t spent? We’ve seen Henry doesn’t lower ticket prices when they save money.
Does Henry and Co getting richer mean that much to you?
Young players don’t get paid. If everyone stops paying older guys, mlbpa will change the rules and young guys won’t be cheap either. They already want to.
GA: I guess I haven’t considered that people are protesting. I will think about that. I doubt I would waste much time protesting much of anything. I protest things for a little while and then move on to something else if nothing improves. I think the Red Sox will be good again before too long. If they are building the farm and spending money wisely, I think success is very likely. I think they are doing both of those things, so I am actually optimistic about the future. I think they are moving in the right direction, maybe slowly.
GA: I don’t care about how much money is spent. I am pointing out that I think John Henry, as a businessman, cares about how much money is spent and I think it is reasonable for him to care about that. I don’t think about John Henry being rich and wonder if he is getting richer. I don’t care if he gets richer. I haven’t cared about ticket prices (hotel prices in Boston is a much bigger problem). I care if the Red Sox are headed in then right direction and I think they are by building the farm and spending wisely. Maybe I should protest what John Henry is doing and maybe I will get there one day, but I am not there yet. I will say that Alex Cora should be fired if he made bad decisions on purpose to help get Bloom fired. I do feel strongly about that.
suit – Red Sox fans have patiently waited 4 entire years for the Red Sox to stop acting like a small market team.
That’s more than a reasonable amount of time to wait, their patience has grown very thin. When was the last time the Dodgers or Yankees went 4 years without spending much?
GASox – Two points I’d like to make.
One, the Athletics could afford to spend more. They had $62M profit in 2022, good for 5th most in MLB.
Two, there is absolutely no reason why Suit would care about overspending if he or somebody he knows wasn’t directly affected by FSG finances. They could spend $50M more on payroll and still ownership would do very well financially.
And Suit knows this.
suit – Like I said, when you go backwards a year at a time it shows “Estimated” numbers …. not “Actual”.
if you can find Final Actual payroll numbers for prior years on RR, please provide the link as I’d really like to see it.
Fever: It is a misnomer to say the Red Sox spend like a small market team when they continually spend around $200M per year. I will continue to point this out when I see it.
Fever: I don’t care about spending or overspending. I am pointing out that John Henry does care about spending as a businessman which is reasonable and he sees other teams spending far less and getting better results than him and he is changing business practices. That’s it. I think I have backed up my theory very well here. I have no connection to FSG whatsoever. I am a positive fan. If I ever get as negative or an outlook as you, I will find something better to focus on.
negative of an outlook
Fever: I think RR just writes estimated everywhere.
Why does Spotrac currently have the Red Sox CBT payroll at $185.61M and list them as having $61.39M of competitive balance tax space? This is clearly wrong. $185.61M + $61.39M = $247M. The CBT tax threshold is $237M and the Red Sox are $51.39M below the CBT threshold. This is clearly an error by Spotrac and makes me wonder what other errors they are making.
suit – So what you’re saying is 5 years from now if the Sox have a $200M CBT payroll (I assume that’s what you mean by “spending”) then you won’t acknowledge they are spending like a smart market team if they are ranked 23rd in payroll?
So while basically every other team’s payroll has gone up substantially during the past decade, you think the Red Sox having their lowest payroll since 2014 is not an indication of cheapness.
Well alrighty then, apparently you don’t care about credibility.
suit – Are you saying whenever someone is behaving in such a way that displeases you and others, you’d rather just abandon them instead of do what you can to straighten them out?
I’m guessing you’re one of those people who tells others if they aren’t happy with everything going on in their country, they should just move to another country.
Well alrighty then.
BTW – John Henry’s “changed business practices” have failed miserably the past 4 years. They are what their record says they are. Ticket revenue is down. TV ratings are down. A large number of people declined to interview for Bloom’s job. A large number of players declined to come play for the Red Sox. Everywhere you look real fans are very disappointed and angry at how low the franchise has sunk. Throughout the entire baseball world everyone is asking what the hell is going on with the Red Sox front office, why aren’t they trying to win.
It’s your choice if you want to continue covering your eyes and ears to all that’s happening, but for someone who has repeatedly admitted they aren’t emotionally invested because they don’t care about the team finishing last every year, you sure do spend a lot of time here trying to get others to cover their eyes and ears too.
suit – Where does it say they have $61.39M CBT space?
Top right it says threshold $237M and Projected CBT payroll of $185,615,185
It says the exact same thing bottom center.
Fever: On RR above 2024 Signing Bonus it says:
Est. Tax Bill Details
Est. Competitive Balance Tax Space $61,394,815
I just copied and pasted it.
Fever: I really don’t like long, expensive free agent deals. They rarely seem to work out. So, I am ok with trying a different way of fielding a team. I am wondering if the Devers contract is going to stay above water. I didn’t really want that contract, but I am trying to stay optimistic about it. I am not at the point of complaining about their level of spending. Maybe I will get there someday, but I am not there yet. Also, I don’t think they are done spending, so I think it is premature to start comparing this year’s spending to other years. If they don’t spend over $200M, then I will need to reevaluate things and I may join you in being unhappy.
Fever: I am trying to show a logical explanation for what is going on with the Red Sox with the hope it will cheer up some people. I do think they can stomp the Rays (who have been stomping the Red Sox) if they act more like the Rays but significantly outspend them. That is my theory as to what is going on and I usually say that when I post it. This is sports, not real life issues, so if I became unhappy with the Red Sox and stopped following them closely, I don’t think that is really abandoning people.
I don’t see the dire situation you see for the Red Sox, so I am not trying to get anyone to cover their eyes or ignore it. They have a middle of the pack farm system but need more pitching prospects. They have some financial flexibility. It could be a lot worse. They could have a depleted farm system and older declining players signed for years. Breslow is avoiding bad contracts which is good. He is addressing pitching which is good. I would like to give Breslow a chance to see what he can do. In a way the Red Sox are starting over in new direction led by Breslow. Shouldn’t he get some time to go about things in his way? Isn’t it a mistake to be impatient with Breslow as soon as he walks through the door because there were 4 bad years under Bloom?
Gentlemen it’s Super Bowl Sunday!!! When I mentioned to my wife, since we have been married my Cowboys have not won a Super Bowl… her response was.. how have the Red Sox done in that time… As usual I got nothing… small fact.. yes HE to is a Cowboys fan…
Hey, you can’t post here!
That’s ok, he’s got smaht post.
Best commercial EVER.
olm – I hafta admit, their stadium is mesmerizing. Such a short walk to Globe Life Park and Globe Life Field, where I hope to be next month.
But before I was a Pats fan, there was only one NFL team …. Mean Joe, Rocky, Lynn, LT, Franco and of course Terry.
I did however get to see the Cowboys Cheerleaders perform at The Big E in Mass many years ago!.
Nick Deeds is straight up incompetent. “Solid as those peripheral numbers were” is NOT PROPER ENGLISH. The word “as” to start each sentence is not optional. Fire this kid—he doesn’t understand basic grammar.
Another former yankee that will look like sandy Koufax only against the Yankees.
U think with this stupid Netflix things coming up . U think ownership would try and spend money to show all of America how to actually run a franchise butttttttt they are gonna show us HOW NOT TO RUN a PROFESSIONAL sports team .. especially after everything that happens this off-season .. this team has the highest ticket prices in all of MLB .. has the oldest stadium so I’m pretty sure the maintenance for it doesn’t cost to much unlike these new stadiums .. than u add in the fact #NetFlix paid them for this documentary and u add in the fact we havent gone over the tax luxury .. and we should have been able to sign Yamamoto.. and they see we clearly need SP and yet did NOTHING!!!!!!!! THEY TRADE SALE WHICH IK SORRY WAS A MISTAKE .. SO NOW WE R STUCK WITH BELLO , GIALITO , PIVETTA , HOUCK , WHITLOCK KM TELLING U RIGHT NOW IF THIS IS OUT STARTING ROTATION THAN EXPECT ABOUT 20 WINS .. AND HAVE ALL OF MLB AND THE WHOLE WORLD LAUGHING AT OUT JOKE OF A TEAM … THATS EXACTLY WHAT OWNERSHIP HAS DONE TO SUCH A STORIES FRANCHISE…
No need to yell
On Netflix 2024
Red Sox 2024 Tales From The Basement
I wonder if they cut payroll on the maintenance department? Maybe grabbed a few employees from the local day labor or hit up the Home Depot parking lot for some illegals.
Meh. Kind of tired of all the potential bullpen pieces. Barring a trade of Jansen, it’s all pretty much set.
Of course, Breslow could be stocking up on relief arms in preparation for the inevitable 4 inning starts from the rotation.
If the Twins intend to spend $140 million on payroll then Lorenzen is the obvious choice. Desclafani, Paddack and Canterino have all had significant recent injuries so they’re going to need the innings.
74-88 is the high water mark this Year for Boston and that’s with all going well. Book it
Babe – OUTSTANDING guess!!!!
Each year I do the series by series predictions and come to a projected season long total. Last year was the same as yours for this year. 74-88. I was four games off thanks to BOS doing better than expected early in the season versus NYY (9-4) and TOR (7-6). The 13 games vs AL East teams were expected to go as follows:
NYY 4-9 and actual was 9-4
TOR 4-9 and actual was .7-6
That’s an 8 game over performance
TB 5-8 and actual was 2-11
BAL 6-7 and actual was 6-7
So overall the team was predicted to be 19-33 vs AL East and their actual turned out to be 24-28. The overall prediction was 4 too low because the AL East provided 5 more wins than expected!!
NYY got better, BAL got better, TOR is about the same and TB is about the same so the 19-33 guess for 2024 might ratchet down to 17-35 vs the AL East. That means in the other 110 games Boston would need 64 wins to be a .500 team and finish in last place again.
With Cora managing and Devers at 3B, the 110 other games probably will bring roughly 55 wins meaning without all the detail the likely wins will be projected at 72 for the current team.
My guess is 79 wins. I do not think they are a win better because of anything they have done to try to improve (they haven’t). I think they are a win better because I think a few teams are worse next year around the league, and perhaps 2 in the division will be worse than last year.
I have mentioned this several times in the past 2 years, but the only way the Red Sox are not a last place team is if another team somehow manages to get worse than them.
William – I would bet the house that Tampa slides down to 4th place. No Glasnow, no Franco, an often injured McClanahan … that’s an awful lot of talent to lose all at once.
The Rays are so loaded with hard throwing pitching and prospects that I wouldn’t put it past them to win 90+ games without us even realizing how they could possibly do it, again, for the billionth time.
I did place them and the Blue Jays as my two teams to get a little worse this year. I think the Orioles improved from last year, but I do not think that means they win more games overall. It wouldn’t surprise me if they still come in first or second with less wins.
William – I think Burnes is a huge addition, and with the kids having gained valuable experience last year they should be better prepared for the postseason.
Plus I expect them to actually make meaningful trade deadline acquisitions for once, especially with the ownership situation. As it stands now, if forced to predict, I’d go O’s-Jays-Yanks-Rays-Sox.
I have it on my trusty guess-o-meter at
O’s
Yankees
Blue Jays
Rays
all above .500 clumped pretty closely together
then
Many miles away something crawls to the surface of a deep Scottish loch. REEEEEEEEEEEEEEED SOX
I wonder if anyone is gonna completely overreact.