The Twins placed righty Chris Paddack on the 15-day injured list yesterday due to fatigue in his right shoulder, but the right-hander made clear in a follow-up interview that he’s not concerned about any potential injury (link via Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune). “This isn’t pain or discomfort,” said Paddack, who’s in his first season full season back from the second Tommy John surgery of his career. “This is fatigue.”
Paddack expanded that while his general approach is that he wants the ball at every opportunity, he also felt the need to listen to his body and “not be a hero” after a recent dip in his fastball velocity and feelings of a “dead arm.” The 28-year-old righty has tossed 78 1/3 innings this season — already his most since 2021 and in fact more than he pitched in 2022-23 combined (majors and minor league rehab work included). Some fatigue and workload management was to be expected, and the recent drop in velocity prompted the team to make a move.
Notably, Nightengale adds that manager Rocco Baldelli confirmed Paddack will return to the rotation once he’s reinstated from the injured list. There’s no plan to shift the right-hander to a relief role at this time, though he thrived in that setting down the stretch and in the postseason with the Twins last year when he tossed a combined 8 2/3 innings and allowed three runs on seven hits and a walk with a hefty 14 strikeouts. Paddack’s fastball sat at a career-high 95.5 mph last year in relief, per Statcast, and he was frequently touching the upper 90s in the playoffs.
Perhaps a return to that role could be in play down the line (speculatively speaking), but the organization will continue starting him for now. Paddack has a 5.29 ERA in 15 starts, due largely to a pair of ugly outings at Camden Yards (nine runs) and at Yankee Stadium (seven runs).
In the short term, the Twins will need to plug someone into the fifth spot in their rotation. KSTP’s Darren Wolfson reports that Minnesota will start reliever Ryan Jensen today at Triple-A instead of top prospect David Festa, presumably setting the stage for Festa to make his big league debut tomorrow in Arizona. (Note: I misread the team’s game log yesterday and incorrectly wrote that Festa had pitched too recently to be an option; my apologies for the error.)
The 24-year-old Festa has been sharp in Triple-A this season, pitching to a 3.77 ERA with a huge 35.1% strikeout rate, a 9.7% walk rate and a strong 45.5% grounder rate. While his walk rate could stand to come down a few ticks, it’s worth pointing out that Festa has improved considerably in that regard as the season has progressed. After walking an alarming 20% of his opponents through his first four starts, he’s slashed his walk rate to 6.7% — including zero walks over his past two outings. His strikeout rate has improved a bit as he’s honed his command, sitting at 37.3% in his 10 most recent outings.
Festa is considered one of the Twins’ best — if not their best — pitching prospects. He sits at No. 99 on MLB.com’s recently updated top-100 list and is the game’s No. 93 prospect over at FanGraphs. He’s been a nice development story for the Twins as a 13th-round pick in 2021 who signed for a $125K bonus. Minnesota will need to add Festa to the 40-man roster if he is indeed called upon for his debut, but they have an open spot at the moment anyhow (and righty Brock Stewart has already been on the 15-day IL for nearly 60 days in the event that they need a second space anytime soon).
While Festa’s progress toward the big leagues is a big positive, the Twins’ former top pitching prospect, Matt Canterino, has had yet another setback, per Nightengale. The 26-year-old righty is headed for an MRI on his shoulder after experiencing discomfort in a recent bullpen session. Canterino, the No. 54 overall pick back in 2019, has dominated minor league opponents when healthy, evidenced by a career 1.48 ERA and 39.1% strikeout rate since being drafted.
Unfortunately, between the pandemic-canceled 2020 season and repeated injuries, he’s only been able to pitch 85 innings in total. He most recently underwent Tommy John surgery in 2022 and has yet to get back into a minor league game since that time. He’s on the Twins’ 40-man roster and is in the first of three minor league option years, so they needn’t yet consider cutting him loose to open a spot, but it’s another frustrating setback for the talented but oft-injured righty.
There’s better news on a pair of injured Twins relievers, however. The aforementioned Stewart pitched a bullpen session three days ago and will do so again today and on the 29th, per Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com. The former Dodgers prospect has been a revelation since joining the Twins on a minor league deal, pitching 41 innings of relief with a 0.66 ERA and 34.8% strikeout rate dating back to last season. He’s been out since early May with a shoulder injury.
As for righty Justin Topa, whom the Twins acquired in the offseason Jorge Polanco trade, he’s slated to throw a bullpen session in early July, per Park. The right-hander suffered a 25% tear of the patellar tendon in his knee during spring training, Park notes, but was recommended for a platelet-rich plasma injection and rest rather than surgery. Twins trainer Nick Paparesta detailed that Topa will then ramp up through the All-Star break before being reevaluated. A second-half return remains in play for the righty, who pitched 69 innings of 2.96 ERA ball for the Mariners in 2023 and is under team control with the Twins through 2026.
The Polanco trade hasn’t produced much for either team yet after looking like a win win