Much of the focus on the Cardinals’ slate of offseason moves was on the team’s rebuilding of its rotation. Signings of Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn have all paid off to varying extents. One of the team’s less-heralded moves, however, has proven equally important for the 2024 season. The trade of infielder/outfielder Richie Palacios to the Rays in exchange for reliever Andrew Kittredge has been a win-win swap. Tampa Bay has enjoyed a .350 OBP and quality defense at multiple positions from Palacios. The Cards have benefited from one of the most consistent setup men in the National League. And while Kittredge is a free agent at season’s end, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the team expects to talk to Kittredge about a new contract in the near future.
Kittredge, 34, is in his first full season back from 2022 Tommy John surgery but has shown little signs of rust following that arduous rehab. He pitched 11 2/3 innings for Tampa Bay late last season and has been one of the most heavily used relievers in baseball this season. His 66 appearances tie him for tenth in the sport, and his 63 relief innings are tied for 33rd among 173 qualified relievers.
Kittredge hasn’t simply provided volume, however. His 33 holds lead the National League and trail only Houston’s Bryan Abreu (35) for the MLB lead. He’s pitched to a 2.86 ERA, posting slightly better-than-average strikeout and walk rates of 23.5% and 7.5%, respectively. Opponents have kept the ball on the ground at a 44.5% clip against him — again, a bit better than league-average.
It’s fair to suggest that Kittredge could be in for some regression, particularly as he enters what’ll be his age-35 season. His rate stats are all sharp, but none are elite. He’s benefited from a .257 average on balls in play that’s 35 points shy of his career mark, and he hasn’t exactly been a soft-contact savant; Statcast measures Kittredge with worse-than-average marks in hard-hit rate (40.9%, 31st percentile), barrel rate (9.1%, 22nd percentile) and average exit velocity (89.5 mph, 32nd percentile).
That said, Kittredge has always gotten by with middle-of-the-pack exit velocity and hard-hit marks — though this year’s spike in barrel rate is uncharacteristic. This year’s opponents’ chase rate, contact rate (both in the zone and off the plate) and swinging-strike rate are each right in line with his career marks as well. Kittredge has lost about a mile per hour off both his sinker and slider relative to his peak showing in 2021, but that season will likely stand out as the best of his career. Even if there’s some regression in store, Kittredge looks fully capable of posting a mid-3.00s ERA with quality rate stats across the board. This version of him is still unequivocally a valuable, effective reliever.
Using MLBTR’s Contract Tracker to look at recent precedent, there aren’t many multi-year deals for relievers beginning in their age-35 season or later — particularly non-closing relievers. Teams are increasingly wary to commit to players in their mid-to-late 30s, and relievers are of course notably volatile. Chris Martin’s two-year, $17.5MM deal with the Red Sox is the top deal for setup men in this age bracket over the past three years; his contract began in his age-37 season. Veterans like Collin McHugh (two years, $10MM with the Braves) and Ryan Brasier (two years, $9MM with the Dodgers) have also commanded multi-year pacts. Kittredge has a steadier track record than Brasier. He throws considerably harder than McHugh did at the time of his contract in Atlanta. A two-year deal between the McHugh and Martin figures could make sense for both parties, speculatively speaking.
If the Cardinals succeed in keeping Kittredge in St. Louis, they’ll keep a late-inning corps that’s been a strength together for the 2025 season. Closer Ryan Helsley is controllable through 2025. Fellow setup men JoJo Romero and Ryan Fernandez (a very nice Rule 5 find) are under club control through 2026 and 2029, respectively.
I’d like to see him back. It all comes down to price and whether he wants to stay.
…and for how long. Hopefully one year, but no more than two.
Or.. or they can just be upfront on what is going on? Clearly they are holding back. Most likely due to the Ballys situation. It’s ok, they are a business after all but they could be transparent to their customers.
@thebirds
They’ve already said they wont be taking on any payroll and most likely will see a reduction. Seems transparent to me.
What they say and what they do are 2 different things. I heard that they say they will not increase payroll, and then 1 week later, they sign a free agent or trade for a player that is owe a lot of money.
Ok but my point is the “why”.. that’s called transparency.
Depending on what they do with Goldie, the current group IS the 2025 group minus one of Lynn/Gibson.
Well, mostly. We’ll see if they can resign Kittredge, although they’ll probably need to find a replacement in free agency or trade if they don’t. They should let Goldschmidt walk and use Burleson and maybe platoon him with Baker at 1B. Carpenter is a free agent, but like with Kittredge, they’ll probably either resign him or find a similar replacement in free agency. A starting OF is another offseason target, as they’re still not sure what they have with Walker, Burleson will (or should) be at 1B, and they’re already sacrificing offense in CF.
As you said, they’ll likely pick up Gibson’s option but let Lynn walk. That would leave the front of the rotation intact with Gray, Fedde, and Gibson. Alternatively, they could decline Gibson’s option as well and try to find an upgrade in free agency or trade, although that would be difficult on their budget. Either way, that leaves two rotation spots up for grabs. Neither Mikolas nor Matz can be guaranteed a spot anymore, but they each have one more year under contract and will likely get one more chance in Spring Training and the beginning of next season to see if either of them can win back a rotation spot, get demoted to the bullpen, or get DFAed. Zack Thompson is still around, but next year is probably his last chance. Then there’s McGreevey, who is the most promising rotation candidate for next year, as well as a few other pitching prospects who may or may not be ready for MLB by next spring.
Oh, I forgot about Pallante. Of course, he will also be in the mix for a rotation spot next year.
“It’s fair to suggest that Kittredge could be in for some regression,”
How do they know he is not going to keep getting better and not regressing? Too much emphasis on all these metrics imo.
I always think about this after TJ. How many years was he pitching in pain and how did it skew his norm? Or maybe it didn’t?
That’s very rare among players in their mid-30s, aside from PED users like McGwire and Bonds.
“fair to suggest” he “could be”
That’s two qualifiers, not exactly a proclamation.
I’d also like to see the Cardinals attempt to sign Helsley to an extension. Aside from a 2-month stint on the IL last year, Helsley has been an absolute stud as the closer for 3 years in a row.
He’s easily the best closer the Cardinals have had since Isringhausen, arguably even the best one they’ve had since Lee Smith.
I don’t know about that. Windows for closers are so small you have to include Rosenthal and maybe even Mott on that list.
Both Rosenthal and Mott — for 2-3 years — were borderline unhitable. He’s similar to those guys for sure.
I wouldn’t object to keeping him around, but Closers have a shorter half life than most players. Even if he becomes just a servicable reliever that’d be fine… but not with a 10+ million a year salary for multiple years.
Neither Rosenthal nor Motte were ever as good as Helsley is, nor could they remain in top form for 3 straight years like Helsley has.
Winding up paying a serviceable reliever $10M+ for multiple years isn’t that bad and easily worth the risk compared to the likely possibility of having one of MLB’s top closers under a reasonable contract for a few more years.
The Cardinals already have a lot of good or great pieces in place. They didn’t rebuild after last season’s disaster and have rebounded to be roughly a .500 team, so there’s once again no reason to rebuild, and they should be even better next year.
The only way they are better next year is if some of those prospects hit in a big way. Either Saggese or Gorman, Jordan, and Scott need to improve a great deal for the team to be better next year.
That’s not the only way. Young players like Winn, Burleson, and Siani should only get better. They’ll have Fedde as the #2 starter for the whole season (barring injury, naturally). Arenado’s power is likely to rebound. Gorman may rebound. Walker may finally break out. They should add a free agent to the OF offense.
As for prospects, McGreevey could very be that hit you mentioned.
Kittredge‘s agent wouldn’t be out of line asking for a 2 year deal with a team option for a 3rd during negotiations with the Cards or any other team during the off season.
The 3rd season being a team option protects the team in case he gets hurt or falls apart and he gets some security win-win there.
Tough decision. He’s definitely in for some regression as his ERA of 2.86 is lower than his SIERA of 3.57 but it’s still pretty decent and his career SIERA is also 3.57, so worth a chance if he’s willing to take a 2 or 3 year contract. Probably don’t want to go beyond 3, I’d prefer 2 years.
I would not resign I move on. There are younger better options.
Mid 30s pitcher? Of course they will resign him!
Too old for large contract. Your Old Staff brought stability as a bunch of Ham and Eggers. Not the Standard you STL fans expect. You need to get younger. Have him get his raise somewhere else.
Weird random capitalization.
The surest way for a reliever to have a horrible season is for the Cardinals of St. Louis to sign him.
Thanks for the great season! Now please go somewhere else and get paid for it. The best way is to move on and find another like him next year at reasonable cost. That is part of what made the most recently successful Cards teams successful.