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A few points supporting Mark’s answers…..
1. Trevor Rogers has had some success in the majors, and is still only 26 years-old. The O’s have removed the pressure and are working on him in AAA. I keep saying it: Organizations in MLB that win do it by making the players they have under contract better. While Dave Dombrowski signed 3-4 big name players, that’s not nearly enough for the Phillies to be where they are. They’ve developed Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez as legitimate quality ML starters. The bullpen lead MLB in blown saves when DD took over. Yes it took a bit over a year, but they’ve had one of the better bullpens since. I won’t go into their working with the position players.
OK, the trade didn’t bring instant results – as so many people that think MLB is Rotisserie League demand. Mr. Rodgers is a grown man that knows his career is at a crossroads. He’s going to cooperate and retool. Let’s see what happens in the next year or two.
2. The Guardians are being terribly underrated. MLB is now a bullpen game, and more so in the playoffs than the regular season. Managers will take starters out in the 3rd and 4th innings for whatever reasons come the playoffs. They’ll take a reliver out after facing 3 batters if he doesn’t have it that day. Bullpen depth is the most important thing. Cleveland has had the best bullpen in MLB all year.
3. There are really no stand out teams going into the playoffs this year. Top-heavy teams such as the Yankees and Dodgers have trouble in the playoffs because the top-tier players can only pitch and bat as much as the lower level guys, and those teams have more lower level guys on their roster because even they have budgets.
Teams such as the Dbacks, Brewers, Guardians, Padres, even Tigers have full rosters with contributors that play strong fundamental baseball – meaning the other team will have to beat them because they’re not going to beat themselves very often.
Been saying it for months: the 2024 MLB playoffs will be the best in years as at least a half-dozen teams can make it to the WS.
Not reading all that
In my mind the name on the screen starts with “S” but ends in “croll”
I figured out his hobby…..
Mark;
What I think you’re missing with the O’s and pitchers is this…….
They don’t draft any.
I understand that in a way. Because so many players are coming to MLB from not just around the world, but from different places in the US – playing against who knows what sort of competition. It’s hard to look at stats which are the result of the level of players they’re competing against. The O’s under Sig and his staff use sophisticated algorithms which they’ve developed over the years in St. Louis, Houston, and now Baltimore. It’s far harder to track future performance for young pitcher than position players. It’s a lot easier to gage pitchers that are competing in organized baseball in the US as they know the competition. Also, tools such as Statcast are available in the US, not as much in other countries.
The O’s saw things in young pitchers Coulombe and Cano that the Twins didn’t. Saw things in Félix Bautista that the Marlins missed. Currently they’re developing top young starter prospects Cade Povich (Twins) and Chayce McDermott (Astros).
Rodgers fits into this
I am sure whatever Samuel said is interesting, but I try to limit my reading to an hour or so on this site.
Good comments.
One of the things I might add is that the #4 & #5 SPs are often an evening factor. You can have an excellent record if your #4/5 guys are #3 types, while your competition relies on two #1 types and 3 #5 types. But once you eliminate the #4/5 guys, the record discrepancy starts to look a lot smaller.
“While I’m not saying that the Twins won’t make some changes, I’d argue that the biggest reason for Minnesota’s 2024 season is ownership mandating the payroll cut last winter.”
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That seems to be the standard line from MLBTR writers. I think it’s ingenuous.
The Twins lost a good amount of revenue from the Bally situation. The Twins were not the only team affected, nor were they the only team to cut payroll.
This is a site that primarily discusses player salaries and how team fit players into their payroll. That’s fine. But MLB is not the government, where they just print money and move on. I know of no private business where budget plans are made expecting revenue to come in from a source, and when the source declares some sort of bankruptcy and doesn’t fulfill their contract, the fault is the owners for not coming up with the revenue out of their own pockets.
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I’m not a fan of the Twins ownership group. Have felt for years that they interfere too much. I like Carlos Correa a lot. Don’t know why the Twins signed him,,,,twice. That was on two different owners. It was a risky signing and although he brought a lot to the team, that money could have been spent better elsewhere.
But business is business, and I can’t fault an ownership group for pulling back on the budget. Again, other affected franchises did.
Golly, maybe there’s something amiss with the Baseball Ops – including the manager and coaches. It’s been how many years of slightly above average or below average baseball?
The Padres lowered their payroll some 70m from last season, won 90 games for the 4th time in franchise history (with 6 to play) and first time since 2010, and set a franchise record in attendance.
I sure as $hit hope a payroll reduction is not in the cards.
The LAD series should be fun!
Pads. Built for a playoff run.
Much like the Orioles, the Pads’ immediate and near future looks real nice. The windows are wide open!
I have meetings at John Hopkins next early summer and have definite plans to get to Camden (my first time there)!
@Brew’88.
CF seat ticket special week night games at OPACY ($12 this year). Great view pregame of pitcher prep and then for sure watching Mullins do his thing. Also, short walk to landing above RF wall and to bullpen area. All worth it. One note. Sun is in your eyes for a little bit. Suggest shades and/or hat.
Echoing Samuel, fewer words.
Top 12 2024 payrolls (number of playoff teams):
6 eliminated
5 in or likely (NYM or ATL) will be out.
Bottom 12 payrolls:
5 eliminated
2 in and 3 more virtual locks (all of the AL WC are bottom 12, except SEA).
Find the correlation between payroll and playoffs. Slightly negative.
8:17; I was at the OPACY game here recently when Snell was on the bump. A man among boys out there. By some odd chance if SF doesn’t want him, I’m sure the Os would be happy to take him off their hands.
Orioles fans seem obsessed with the Trevor Rodgers trade but forget about the Zach Eflin trade. Eflin has arguably been the best trade deadline pitching acquisition. Who still has a year left on his contract. Dominguez has had a few hiccups especially with the home run but has been serviceable in replacing Kimbrel as closer. Unfortunately the Orioles haven’t had as many leads to protect as they did earlier. Soto had a few bad outings but has been much better lately. And while Norby got off to a hot start in Miami he has cooled off lately. Also keep in mind he’s not playing in the middle of a playoff push. The Marlins are just playing out the string (again). And too early to write off Rodgers. Only 4 starts. See what he does in an offseason throwing program and next spring before making a final judgment
Orioles fan here. Was OK and still OK with the Rodgers trade. Thought it was fare as were the Philly trades. Getting Eflin was a coup.
So Mark believes that playing longer and with better players makes one an award winning player (Merrill over Skenes). Here’s my rebuttal:
1. The type of season Jackson Merrill has had is relatively commonplace for a rookie position player, while the season Skenes has had, ERA+ of 213, is comparable to prime Nolan Ryan.
2. There has been a total of 8 SP’s in last 10 years who have a sub 2.00 ERA after their first 22 starts of the season. None were rookies and all were Cy Young winners or candidates.
3. If a SP with the resume of Paul Skenes doesn’t win ROY, how is it possible for any SP to ever win ROY? Chances are next to 0% one will ever duplicate his numbers.
Mark is right that it’s not even close, but he’s completely wrong about who should win.