Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat: Today, 2pm CT

Steve Adams

• Good afternoon! I'll get going at 2pm CT, but feel free to send in questions ahead of time, as usual.
• Greetings!
• Let's begin

RAGBRAI

• Does Gallen get a QO from AZ and if so does he take it? What would he get on the open market with a respectable ROS?

Steve Adams

• They'll give him a QO. His decision probably hinges somewhat on how he finishes, though I expect him to decline it. Gallen feels like he's going to be the next relatively high-profile starting pitcher/Boras client to sign a two-year deal with an opt-out. If he finishes poorly enough, maybe he accepts or (more surprisingly) doesn't get a QO. But I think if the D-backs saw any real scenario where they wouldn't give him the qualifying offer, he'd have been traded in July.
• Obviously, a major injury changes that calculus, but short of that, I'd be surprised if he doesn't get one.
• If he accepts that, it's not the end of the world. They paid Jordan Montgomery $22MM not to throw a pitch for them in 2025. A similarly priced gamble on a Gallen rebound isn't a terrible bet.

Brad

• How many major league free agent contracts have surplus value? I feel like the percentage is much lower than you think.

Steve Adams

• By definition, very few of them are going to provide surplus value. Free agency is an auction, and most teams tap out of the bidding because they feel the price has exceeded the player's value. On some one-year deals or some mid-range free agent deals, you can find some bargains, but it's only natural for the weightier free-agent deals to come in to provide minimal surplus value -- if any at all.

JM

• Why can a player stay under club control after he's released and granted free agency? For instance (if reports are correct), Nathaniel Lowe is a free agent and will sign today with the Red Sox, after the Nats DFAed and released him upon clearing waivers. But those same reports say the Sox will have a final arb year of club control in 2026 (though likely non-tender him anyway). Once a free agent (after a release or a non-tender), not always a free agent?

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